An Evolving RPG:

[mastin2]

I'm sorry, KingdomAces and Radja, you both die.
But swyellowtail moves on to a

final round

!
We may yet find out what Level 1 entails!

Also,

Ircher

and

Gamma Emerald

are both in the field again.

[Ircher]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

[mastin2]

Ircher's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[mastin2]

Roll again, Ircher!

[Gamma Emerald]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[Ircher]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

[Ircher]

Hey, the odds are like ridiculously low right now though.

15/36 to win a SINGLE match; that's 5/12.

5/12 ^ 3 = 125/1728 which is ~120/1700 ~ 6/85 ~ 7/90. (Very Roughly)

Only 7 out of 90 adventures will succeed; that's ~7.7% which is ridiculously low. (And quite close to being correct)

It's a little short of double that - 1/8, or 12.5%. Ties are just replayed, you're treating them there as if they're losses. Each round is a straight 50/50.

You don't win on ties, so I'm ignoring ties. That's the chances to win. To lose would be the opp. minus any ties. The ties are basically not counted if I'm calculating win or lose chances.

My bad-math sense is tingling.

Spoiler: Why I think ya'll are wrong about the math....

Seriously now....

There's 6 different possibilities you can roll. And there are 6 different possibilities that the enemy can roll.

Therefore, there are 36 different total outcomes we can have.

If the player (henceforce represented by P) rolls a 1, then 0/6 times will the player win. Yes, 1/6 times, the player will roll again, but that does not change the odds of winning as any two rolls are in this case independent of each other.

If P rolls 2, then the enemy (henceforce E) loses if it rolls a 1, ties on a 2, and wins on everything else. Once again, 6 possibilities.

If P rolls 3, there is 2/6 chance to win, 1/6 to tie, and 3/6 to lose.
If P rolls 4, there is 3/6 chance to win, 1/6 to tie, and 2/6 to lose.
If P rolls 5, there is 4/6 chance to win, 1/6 to tie, and 1/6 to lose.
If P rolls 6, there is 5/6 chance to win and 1/6 to tie.

Since I'm focusing on the win rate for the player, the ties are NOT counted as successful outcomes.

Therefore, 0/36 + 1/36 + 2/36 + 3/36 + 4/36 + 5/36 = 15/36 or 5/12.

If we counted the ties, that's 21/36 or 7/12 to NOT lose.

Since you have to win 3 matches in a row and the three are independent of each other, you multiply the chance by itself 3 times.

5/12 * 5/12 * 5/12 = 125/1728.
7/12 * 7/12 * 7/12 = 343/1728 ~ 340/1725 ~ 68/345 ~ 70/350 ~ 7/35 ~ 1/5 or 20%.

The chance of success is about 7 to 8%. The chance to not lose is about 20%. Now explain to me where this 1/8 comes from, as I'm not seeing it.

[Gamma Emerald]

You fail to take into account that ties result in rerolls, not ties. Each time, you technically have a 50% chance. You have the 15/36 chance to win, and the same to lose, and 6/36 to tie. To exclude potential endless ties, let's just omit the ties entirely, bring our possible pairings to 30. 15/30 equals 1/2, which is 1/8 when taken to the third power.

[swyellowtail]

And now my luck runs out right now.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

I am now dead.

[swyellowtail]

...this is where my opponent rolls a 6 and kills me.

[mastin2]

Gamma Emerald's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Ircher's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

swyellowtail's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

And now, for the moment of truth...

[mastin2]

Ircher

and

Gamma Emerald

both have

1 win

.
However, more importantly...

swyellowtail has leveled up!

Details to follow.

[Ircher]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

[Ircher]

Noice. Now if my luck keeps high.....

[mastin2]

Level 1:

HP unlocked!

Each player now has 10 HP.
Each enemy they face will have 8 HP.
For this level, players will randomly roll a 1d6 against an enemy, also rolling a 1d6, as before.
HOWEVER, this time, the loser will lose 1 HP. Nothing happens upon a tie.
After each fight, a player's HP will be restored to maximum.

A player needs to win

five fights

in order to level-up.

This should be a cakewalk; the odds are in your favor. It might be a little bit of a grind (that's 40 rolls minimum to level up), but in that time, other players might catch up! (Trust me, you don't want to be the only player on a level indefinitely.)

This is a

local upgrade

: In order to use the Level 1 rules, a player MUST reach level 1.

[mastin2]

swyellowtail encounters an enemy, and you decide to engage

.

Ircher's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

[Ircher]

YES!!!

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

Watch as mastin ninjas me....

[mastin2]

Ircher's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[Ircher]

Noice. I'll push my luck more tomorrow.

[mastin2]

Congratulations,

Ircher

, you have beaten the odds!
You are now

Level 1

. Refer to either the OP or post 114 for how those mechanics work.

Ircher fails to sneak around an enemy, and combat now begins.

[Gamma Emerald]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

[mastin2]

Gamma Emerald's opponent rolls.

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[mastin2]

No good, Gamma Emerald! Go again.

[Gamma Emerald]

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[Gamma Emerald]

FML