Coin Game - Game Over
- DarkLightA
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DarkLightA Mafia Scum
- DarkLightA
- Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
- Ircher
He / Him / His- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
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- JDGA
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JDGA Goon
- JDGA
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- JDGA
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JDGA Goon
- JDGA
- Goon
- Goon
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THE FINAL TWODarkLightA 351319Harkonnen97 DIAMOND52SAPPHIRE102RUBYEMERALDOPAL
DarkLightA wins the Sapphire with a bid of 102, With just one more gem required for DarkLightA to secure victory, bidding on the Ruby is now open.Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.- DarkLightA
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DarkLightA Mafia Scum
- DarkLightA
- Mafia Scum
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- Cheery Dog
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Cheery Dog Kayak
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Harkonnen97
- JDGA
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JDGA Goon
- JDGA
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THE FINAL TWODarkLightA 351319Harkonnen97 DIAMOND52SAPPHIRE10211RUBYEMERALDOPAL
Harkonnen97 wins the ruby with a bid of 11, keeping his game alive. The emerald is the next gem up for bidding.Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.-
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Harkonnen97
- JDGA
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JDGA Goon
- JDGA
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This is it. The final reveal. Let's start by showing the losing bids, and seeing the remaining coin totals...
THE FINAL TWODarkLightA 193219Harkonnen97 DIAMOND521SAPPHIRE10288411RUBYEMERALDOPAL
Harkonnen97 has a small coin lead, which is more than enough to steal the game should he have successfully predicted DarkLightA's remaining bids.Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.- JDGA
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JDGA Goon
- JDGA
- Goon
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Then let's see how DarkLightA allocated his remaining coins.
THE FINAL TWODarkLightA 193219Harkonnen97 DIAMOND521SAPPHIRE10288411RUBY192EMERALD1OPAL
He's gone for an all-in approach, bidding almost his entire sum on the Emerald.
If Harkonnen97 predicted this and bid more than 192 on the Emerald, but saved at least two coins for the Opal, he will win. Has he done this?Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.- JDGA
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JDGA Goon
- JDGA
- Goon
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Final Two Results
Spoiler: Final Result
Thanks to everyone for playing. I might run a second edition of it soon, feel free to pre-/in here or via PM if you would like to be a part of that.Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.-
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Harkonnen97
- Realeo
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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- Jack of All Trades
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/pre in.
Please add some twist. =D"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?- DarkLightA
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DarkLightA Mafia Scum
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- vonflare
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vonflare doot
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- Rhinox
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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- Iprobablysuck
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Iprobablysuck Goon
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Imma pre-/in for that next one.Last edited by Iprobablysuck on Fri Oct 21, 2016 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.ShowDo I REALLY suck? That's up to you to decide.
Retiring from LSG's and Mish Mash, for the most part. If you want to contact me, I suggest going outside and enjoying what the world has to offer, instead.
Definitely DID suck, in the end...Probably.- DarkLightA
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DarkLightA Mafia Scum
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I did some data logging while playing:
Some definite trends. Notably, the difference between refunded bids increased quite consistently with 2/round for much of the first half of the game. Also interesting was the points where this difference increased consistently with 1/round2. When this trend slowed down (points 14 and 15 on last graph), it almost screwed me: seeing it jump up again at 16 made me think it was somehow catching up to the past trend, and I expected it to rise about 8 in the round labelled 17. Instead it rose 11 and I got the refund. However it was just luck that I wasn't eliminated that round.
In terms of strategy I think the best thing is to aim for a safe bet. Expected refunded value + a few coins. The refunded amount isn't worth the potential elimination/tiebreak, especially if it's shared.- Rhinox
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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I was doing all that math in my head but I didn't realize how nice it looked all plotted out like that. I got screwed at 16 because I wasn't expecting more than a 5 coin jump lol
I think the reason the early rounds stayed at pretty even rises was because it seemed like many people weren't noticing/anticipating/playing the 2 coin per round increase. I was doing as you say and staying a couple coins above that because I kept expecting everyone to notice the steady increase and adjust play as a result. That never really happened until about half way through as your data shows.
I think meta will come into play and next game the trend will be to accelerate the bids earlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see a faster rise at the beginning/mid game and then a leveling off at some point as the bids can't really keep increasing exponentially if anyone wants any coins left over at the end. Assuming there isn't a change to the end game gem bidding scenario that is.- Lady Lambdadelta
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Lady Lambdadelta She/FaerRise of the Phoenix
- Lady Lambdadelta
She/Faer- Rise of the Phoenix
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That was literally my pre-game assessment, and I even told people up front. Safe is better, even if you're last in coins, chances of refunding at 6 left are really high, and your refunds will be high too.In post 193, DarkLightA wrote:I did some data logging while playing:
Some definite trends. Notably, the difference between refunded bids increased quite consistently with 2/round for much of the first half of the game. Also interesting was the points where this difference increased consistently with 1/round2. When this trend slowed down (points 14 and 15 on last graph), it almost screwed me: seeing it jump up again at 16 made me think it was somehow catching up to the past trend, and I expected it to rise about 8 in the round labelled 17. Instead it rose 11 and I got the refund. However it was just luck that I wasn't eliminated that round.
In terms of strategy I think the best thing is to aim for a safe bet. Expected refunded value + a few coins. The refunded amount isn't worth the potential elimination/tiebreak, especially if it's shared.
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- Lady Lambdadelta
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