Micro 813 - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

hello hello

if anyone wants to read a past run and get some free meta on me on the side, I played in this setup before. I didn't play well and was a large reason that the town lost, hopefully won't replicate that here. The most notable thing is that scum!Infinity pushed a bus on scum!javajoe fairly hard and that towncred helped carry him to endgame.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ManateeDude

for hopping off a promising L-2 wagon and keeping us in RVS longer

[GuiltyLion]

also I'm gonna call Korina and maybe Invisibility my page 1 townreads

[GuiltyLion]

why not?

[GuiltyLion]

why do you think calling out early page one townreads makes me more likely to be scum?

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion...I said none of that.

My vote has nothing to do with your having early reads. It's your unwillingness to clarify or substantiate them with that "why not?"... I'm not into it. It's unhelpful and if a vote will get you and anyone else talking I'm here for it.

yeh fair, I definitely put words in your mouth there

but to respond I don't really see it as all that useful to justify townreads, especially when they're RVS townreads and they aren't being wagoned - they're not going to be strongly indicative reasons and I don't expect or need to convince people with my reasons. I'm more interested in pushing the gamestate out of RVS and possibly putting some extra pressure on scum if they're

correct

townreads (even if they're townreads for bad/wrong reasons).

I see it as slightly pro-scum to try to weaken or push back on TRs, which is what I thought you might be doing. If we can find consensus townreads and narrow the lynchpool it limits scum's flexibility and makes it a bit harder for them to set up a chain of mislynches. Obviously I'm going to continually re-evaluate as Korina/Invisibility continue to post and if someone wants to sell me on them being scum they're free to case them to try to change my mind. But I'm much more interested in substantiating scumreads rather than townreads, which is why I rebuffed your question like that.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ManateeDude

for hopping off a promising L-2 wagon and keeping us in RVS longer

A meme wagon? Thats why your SRing me?

I didn't/wouldn't say it's a full on scumread, but it's notable that you assume that it is

moreso it was a gut ping that's good enough for a non-RVS vote, basically this reason:

manatee calling for the wagon and then lol-kicking-off-the-wheels once he gets it is a little gross

like your play feels directionless, why call for a wagon and then vote the first person who joins you on it? wagons force reactions and opinions whereas many players sitting at L-4 or L-3 does not. it's play that doesn't generate useful information, feels more likely to come from scum trying to blend in. and your Oath vote doesn't really have anything to do with Oath in particular, like you could have made that vote on anyone who decided to vote MafMen after your post.

[GuiltyLion]

People are pushing me for a rvs vote? I was told ms meta was weird but w/e

it's not just "a rvs vote", it's this

like your play feels directionless, why call for a wagon and then vote the first person who joins you on it? wagons force reactions and opinions whereas many players sitting at L-4 or L-3 does not. it's play that doesn't generate useful information, feels more likely to come from scum trying to blend in. and your Oath vote doesn't really have anything to do with Oath in particular, like you could have made that vote on anyone who decided to vote MafMen after your post.

did you intentionally ignore this or did you not pick up on how that's more than just "a rvs vote"?

further, what would you expect people to push on in page 2 of a mafia game? Why aren't you pushing on anything right now yourself?

[GuiltyLion]

my explanation is his meta

his tone is completely different as scum and town
and i mean COMPLETELY

I want the receipts on this one. "Meta" and "tone" are buzzwords that mean nothing. People can change their playstyle as they improve and personally my tone changes in all sorts of contexts, sometimes depending on whether I've eaten that day or not.

What games are you looking at with Manatee when he was town, what games when he was scum, what are the differences between those and why are his towntells that you've apparently seen already impossible for scum!him to replicate here?

VOTE: MafMen

[GuiltyLion]

tbh the best case for manatee being town rn is a combination of taking heat from some questionable (and timid) corners + mafmen feels kind of white knighty here

I don't like Manatee. At all.

His first RVS vote seemed off to me, then Post 21 came and just really really felt off.

Manatee, please explain why I shouldn't vote you?

(I'm not voting him till I get a VC in case of accidental lolhammer)

this doesn't feel like good faith engagement. what "explanation" would manatee reasonably have rn? it'll be a pithy "nuh-uh" (which is exactly what he gave) or flailing

not to mention there's clearly 2 votes ON THIS PAGE in a 2 page game so the "accidental lolhammer" concern feels disingenuous

this+korina's next post feels like piling onto a popular scumread and trying to look reasonable without actually getting hands dirty and voting him

I vibe with this too, I was thinking about responding to Korina's post 49 last night but I was a bit too drunk and also wanted to see some reactions to it first

Korina what is this question:

Are we all sure that Manatee is scum here?

it's page 2, how on earth could we possibly be sure? Did you think anyone was acting like they were particularly sure that he was scum? Like not very far above this post I even explicitly clarified I wasn't full on scumreading Manatee but rather I felt a gut ping from his intro

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ManateeDude

for hopping off a promising L-2 wagon and keeping us in RVS longer

Its a random wagon. Idk what you're trying to say here in "promising"

L-2 = promising, creates pressure on all players
L-3 = boring, ineffective

what do you think of MafMen claiming to be sure that you're town? do you think you should already be obvtown to someone with his level of experience with you?

[GuiltyLion]

anything i missed?

people keep asking you who you think is scum and you haven't really answered that

your meta case is underwhelming, but I'm not sure if it's underwhelming in a disingenuous way

also LuckyOtter seems like he's gonna be that guy who asks a lot of good questions, makes logical/reasonable points, and just feels vaguely scummy to me the whole time. I'm terrible at reading those players

[GuiltyLion]

The question is what I asked: Are we sure he is scum / are we willing to actually lynch him?

I don't think anyone would say they're sure that a player is scum or that they're willing to lynch them only 2 pages into the game, and I feel like you should already know this. Hence it's a pointless question.

If we aren't, why bring him down to L-1 in the first place if we're just gonna shift to someone else?

But this is not what you asked at all? Why didn't you ask this at the time if it's really what you were going for?

And the answer is because L-1 creates pressure. Not only on the wagoned player, who then must try to towntell as well as they can being one vote away from death, but also on all of the other players - the voting players must decide if they want to stick to this wagon, the non-voting players must decide if they want to push back on the wagon or vocalize support for it. It's a much sharper game state and much harder for scum to play it safe and flexible. Alignments are more discernible when players are forced to take hard opinions on things and put in work into pushing the game state, and wagons are the best way to force the issue.

[GuiltyLion]

also like there's a difference between "I would lynch this player" and "I would lynch this player right now"

like sometimes they're not really above a sufficient bar for towniness so you want them wagoned/threatened and are probably ultimately fine with their lynch, but you still want more time in the day to get reads on other players and let people interact with eachother

[GuiltyLion]

your meta case is underwhelming, but I'm not sure if it's underwhelming in a disingenuous way

also to elaborate/backtrack slightly on this

if town!MafMen then it's a genuine case
if scum!MafMen and town!ManateeDude then it's a genuine case

the only world where the case is disingenuous is both players scum, which is already probabilistically the least likely world. so the fact that your meta case feels loosely genuine on first pass doesn't really tell me much other than maybe it's a point against you two being scum together

[GuiltyLion]

on thisMafMen "page" defense, I played a game recently with scum!MafMen (I was actually townreading him while he was in and then he replaced out fairly early) and he did some of this same "not enough pages" reasoning there:

example A:

I didn't say you need a scumread on the second page. I said you should be actively looking for the scum, which you're not.

I can't be looking for scum if there is nothing to use as info.
yeah, 10 or so pages in there will be enough content to make a few scumreads and/or scumhunt.
but 2 pages in i cant properly scumhunt with what info we have now

example B:

we're three pages in and you vote someone for being quiet
if you think they're scum stop right there
if you are doing it to push content out of them fine

MafMen - can you link to any town games of yours where you similarly suggest that we need a certain number of pages before we can start forming scumreads?

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, let me log on to my laptop, but, Invis, I

never

voted Manatee.

VOTE: Invisibilty

Horrible reason to vote someone in general.
I think you’re scum as well as Mantaee.

this is a real contrived/bad vote and post

yes you technically never voted Manatee but you made it abundantly clear that you did not like his intro and were considering voting him. Invis said he thought Manatee was lynchbait, Otter suggested he vote someone "on the manatee wagon" as there would likely be a scum pushing there if Manatee is lynchbait. Just because you technically didn't

literally

vote him doesn't change the main point that you were effectively aboard "the wagon" for all intents and purposes, even without a vote. Like this just makes your hand-wringing about "are we sure he's scum" look even worse because it's like you're now trying to defend yourself with your lack of vote. And you're not rebuffing Invisibility's read of the game-state, you're playing semantics.

Also I feel you ignored my response to you as well as Oath's question about your MafMen vote.

[GuiltyLion]

No, my vote was still on Maf because I didn't have anyone else I was really suspecting, plus, I didn't see the need to change my vote. Why bother changing it if it'd be to unvote and nothing else?

ah sorry I should have kept reading before jumping in lmao, my bad will try not to do it again.

weren't you suspecting Manatee? this explanation feels super inconsistent with your posts about wanting to vote Manatee but also worrying about the wagon size

[GuiltyLion]

I almost prefer a Korina lynch at the moment but I'm not sure if a L-2 Korina wagon is better for the gamestate yet than the L-2 MafMen wagon, I don't want to steal LuckyOtter's vote thunder (yet). also since Oka has voiced suspicion of Korina I'd like to see where he ultimately lands in dueling MafMen/Korina wagons world.

I don't want to just sheep Antihero's reads entirely but I'm basically just sheeping Antihero's reads entirely. Oath/Anti/GL feels like a nice core townblock and I don't think anyone's against that (nor should they be) currently. Invis/Otter I'll allow as conditional members pending continued good behavior. Manatee/Oka can be "don't need to lynch immediately but probably a scum in there tier" and early lynches on Korina/MafMen are both good IMO, at this point it feels like we def get at least one scum in there.

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, let me log on to my laptop, but, Invis, I

never

voted Manatee.

VOTE: Invisibilty

Horrible reason to vote someone in general.
I think you’re scum as well as Mantaee.

on further review this feels even more ridiculous because you're defending against Invisiblity by saying "but I never voted Manatee!" but then actually reaffirming your scumread on Manatee in the exact same post

[GuiltyLion]

is this theater guiltylion? are you going to vote korina soon or what?

what, you think I'm voicing support of a Korina lynch just for show?

I'd be down to vote Korina but I'm also down to keep voting MafMen. 119 is the scummiest post in the game by far so I'm tempted to switch but it'd be a bit dirty to pivot right after Otter just committed to a MafMen vote and I don't really feel like I need off this wagon yet. There's more to be learned here by staying - including whether you'll commit to a Korina vote, which I explicitly noted. I'm just saying "hey Korina wagon is good with me too". Kinda rare that I feel that way about both early D1 wagons but I'm not seeing a compelling reason to townread either player and I mostly like the voters on both wagons.

tbh it's only my tons of experience with surprising D1 flips and early scumreads not turning out the way you expect them to that's keeping my "this game is basically already solved" ego in check

[GuiltyLion]

like for a quick example, we might be in the Korina/Otter/Oka world, in which case MafMen would be a potential D1 mislynch. But if that's the world we're in, you voting Korina over MafMen would be a pretty ballsy play and so I wanna see if you decide to do that.

[GuiltyLion]

what made you put otter in there? I really don't see how otter has anything to do with this conversation.

Otter's just a dude that posts things that I mostly agree with but feels a little safe/careful in a way that will prob never fully resolve paranoia about him. 95 is his towniest post I think but even that is not inconceivable to fake. He's in that spot where he's probably town by virtue of other players looking scummier plus being probably town by default, and he's not done anything visibly scummy, but at this stage I wouldn't be surprised at all if I've got some misreads and he turns out competent scum.

So when I'm thinking "what if MafMen is town, what if Korina is town" then he comes in as a possible scum in my blind spot and so I have to consider what the gamestate looks like if my vote is on a mislynch. Otter/Korina also makes sense w/ Otter's vote on MafMen rather than Korina at this juncture.

ultimately I'm just trying to flesh out the thoughts running through my head when I'm saying shit like "there's a lot to be learned from staying on MafMen" to try to prove that I'm not just bullshitting

[GuiltyLion]

is it? i was going to mark guilty as solid town because usually town does not completely 180 a case they just built and admit they are wrong.

yeah what? which case did I 180? and where did I "admit" that I was "wrong" about anything? I certainly haven't been wrong about anything yet this game (other than likely the page 1 Korina townread)

[GuiltyLion]

I'm VT.

Putting me at L-2 is effectively L-1 because I will self-hammer regardless of alignment btw.

Anyways, I'll reply to posts in a minute.

k

VOTE: Korina

[GuiltyLion]

i was reading this as you were admitting that you didn't read everything before you posted and were just posting your thoughts which were later clarified so you flipped on korina based on what you read. usually as scum i like to revise what im saying and edit things but as town i just ramble. thats why i marked you as town before.

but then you seemed to go in another direction which now i dont know.

what I do (as town) is skim to see the major things (votes/what people are talking about) so I know what to focus on, then catch up and reply as I go

but I don't think I flipped on Korina, I was consistently scumreading him and both 119 and 120 were bad posts which deserved a reply each. My 134 isn't a reversal except for me acknowledging that Korina did answer Oath's question and I missed it

[GuiltyLion]

@Oka Because if I'm at L-1 D1 as a VT, literally nothing I say can get me off the stand, barring some horrible slip from someone else, which if someone's at L-1, obviously scum are gonna be watching what they're saying to ensure that won't happen.

this isn't really true at all

and if you are town, making someone else hammer you instead of doing it yourself gives a lot more information to town bc the wagon has 5 non-you players on it rather than just 4

self-hammering is a bad play regardless of alignment and I won't be held hostage to it as a threat, if you're not scum then make a convincing case on somebody else

[GuiltyLion]

gotcha

why are you trying to bait out korina's possible selfhammer?

if he's town then he's lynchbait for that comment anyway, I'd never live that post live until endgame

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - let* that post live until endgame

[GuiltyLion]

self hammering could be useful as scum imo in order to cut a day short when you are guaranteed scum and you want to try and throw associative tells/wagon dynamics out of the window because now you added WIFOM to the mix.

okay guilty, now that korina hasn't self hammered herself as she promised too, what do you make of it?

yeh, I guess this is true, but IMO if we get a scumlynch D1 in this set-up we're pretty well off anyway. We'd have better odds than a normal micro because we only need to lynch 1 scum left and yet there'd be two remaining in addition to no more NKs.

I don't know if he's ignoring my L-1 or if he missed it somehow. I'd like to see him explicitly acknowledge it before I can really read it, but not self-hammering here is kinda NAI IMO because self-hammering is stupid as either alignment here.

also I started looking through Korina's posts to see if he's pulled this threat before, didn't immediately see it anywhere but I did find this post (in a game where Korina was scum) where another townie threatened to self-hammer and it defused the wagon. So I think Korina may have been inspired to try a similar gambit here.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean, I still will self-hammer regardless because when you've been PL'd numerous times, and you get wagoned to L-1 you kinda just stop caring.

you probably get PL'd / L-1'd because you continually threaten to self-hammer and have a history of doing it as town

chicken and egg situation you know

I could still be sold on scum!Manatee, probably not scum!Invisibility for today but wouldn't object to someone putting pressure on him for information if nothing else. the gamestate is never as fixed as you think it is

but you're literally never going to convince people if you don't give reasons. like why am I new a suspect? if manatee is scum, what do you make of MafMen's meta defense of him? why exactly are you reading Blackstar as "town by meta" when I don't see anything in his ISO that's particularly hard for scum to fake?

[GuiltyLion]

Oka and Blackstar are town.

also hold up this is the same slot

i didn't even catch that on first pass so can't call it a scumslip honestly but it's also weird in a readspost?? will sleep on this one

[GuiltyLion]

it probably at least means Korina and Blackstar-Oka aren't scum together I guess

[GuiltyLion]

Eh

UNVOTE:

VOTE: MafMen

IF Korina is town then Invis/Manatee/MafMen is not a bad fit

Gonna reread this with fresh eyes tomorrow and see if anything stands out

[GuiltyLion]

it probably at least means Korina and Blackstar-Oka aren't scum together I guess

It really doesn't. It concerns me how quickly you wanted to jump off that wagon- while the pressure was at peak to test that threat. Posts #180-#188 feel like scum interaction to fake a town-tell. I don't like it, but I liked GuiltyLion before the last page :/

It was just less than 2 hours and you were immediate on acquiting Blackstar/ Korina scum team, but specifically Korina. Without consideration that Korina could be scum with someone other than Blackstar... which I might understand if you found Blackstar much scummier than Korina but then you placed your vote on MafMen? I'm confused.

Why isn't it possible Korina is scum and has another partner? My reads are Korina/Invis scum.

First, it does point strongly to them not partnered together. Mafia have day talk in this game. If one of your partners replaced out and another one comes in, you are far less likely to forget that the replacement happened and treat them as two separate people. If they were scum together Oka would be posting and talking to Korina in the other thread.

Second, you're confused because you're assuming my unvote means that I have "acquitted" Korina. It's entirely possible Korina is scum with other people and I have not discounted that possibility.

Also this post kinda implies 2 person scumteams, you realise there are 3 scum in this game, correct?

[GuiltyLion]

Also Oath, I would say Korina definitely feels easier than MafMen atm which is part of why I unvoted. My scumread hasn't really lessened so much as more I just want to see where a few more people fall on these dueling wagons.

MafMen why is Otter almost definitely town? If Korina is scum by POE, why not vote him here?

[GuiltyLion]

Ignore the fact I didn't realize Oka replaced into Blackstar's slot.

okay so it's not the strongest piece of evidence but semantically this bugs me

you say you "didn't realize" the replacement happened, which to me implies that there was never a point prior where you took note of the replace. That to me is scummy - I think town would say they "forgot" the replacement happened or "got confused" or something equivalent, because while these mix-ups do happen, the base understanding that Blackstar replaced out and Oka took over should still have been mentally noted at some point by a townie looking to sort the slot.

But when you say you "didn't realize" and thus imply that this is your first time noticing it, it makes me think you aren't trying to sort Blackstar/Oka at all

[GuiltyLion]

A. thats me jumping on a bandwagon which will dirty my image more even if its dumb
C. otters tone feels townie, yes that's a bad reason however im confident about it so i stuck them in "almost definitely town"

A. dude it's mafia you should never be concerned with your "image", primary concern is always exposing and lynching scum
C. this is weird because I think Otter's tone feels guarded/formal which is not usually what I associate with "townie", to me what feels townie about Otter is mostly just the actual content he's bringing

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like your L-1 vote on me in the attempt to get me to self-hammer. I don't see why town would want to try to get a selfhammer, but I do get why scum would want to try to get that.

I mean if you're scum and you self-hammer that's a win

and if you're scum and you're bluffing and it gets exposed that's a win

and if you're town and you self-hammer then it sucks but if nothing else it advances the game and gets a lynchbaity player out before LYLO where they'd be a game-losing lynch

3) Looking at Blackstar's ISO and compared to this game I modded Blackstar feels similar to that game (he was a VT in that game). Now, I could be sorely mistaken, but, from my initial reaction, it seems like Blackstar is town. Would have to see how Oka plays ultimately.

there's just so much paranoia that's missing here

like you must think Blackstar's scum game is awful if you think he's confidently town based on those few posts

[GuiltyLion]

yah I preemptively apologize if I ever come off as too harsh, I word my pushes/posts strongly sometimes but it's all entirely in-game, I never mean anything personal by anything and ultimately I like playing mafia with everyone here. don't think MafMen has been abrasive at all but I also see what you're going for Oka, him refusing to play is anti-town but may be a playstyle clash more than an alignment indicative behavior

p-edit: yes good content is not enough? that's why I'm not the one saying Otter is "almost definitely" town

[GuiltyLion]

hi
korina is still scum

k i might stick with my reads because this sounds like straight up bussing

VOTE: Korina
after this flips scum we lynch invis

giving you pre-flip town points for this post because I was just considering the same thing

[GuiltyLion]

I doubt it's an all town wagon regardless of Korina's alignment but I think Oath/Anti are strong town and Oka's posting has been pretty good last night and today.

lol Maf "tone feels townie" is supposed to be less basic than "his content is good"? I don't see how either is more basic than the other

[GuiltyLion]

Anti what do you make of Oka's immediate "Maf is scum" pivot? on one hand it feels genuine but I kinda think it's a scummy position to hold cause I agree that the hammer wasn't really that bad there

assuming Korina town, there's prob a scum in Manatee/MafMen, prob a scum in Oka/Otter, and Invis rounds out any combo of those teams nicely

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Invisibility

[GuiltyLion]

@guiltylion why wasn't the hammer not that bad? it's harmful for town

yeah it "cut discussion time short" but we got a lot of readable content from almost everyone except probably Manatee/Otter and Korina was shaping up to be a lynch in this game at some point no matter what

and if it had been on scum then it would have been a win in my book regardless of how short the day phase is. "associative tells" are nice but scum lynch is nicest of all, I'd take a page 1 D1 scumlynch over a 30 page D1 town lynch, especially in this setup

it was def more harmful to town than not-speed-hammering, especially now that Korina flipped town, I'll give you that, but I don't think it necessarily makes MafMen lock scum.

[GuiltyLion]

actually you know

I'm not scum and I strongly doubt all three scum were on the wagon

so extremely good chance of a scum in LuckyOtter or Manatee

if MafMen is town then I'd say Manatee is almost definite scum, the random comment in 189 on his associative with Maf while ignoring everything else going on in the game rubs me the wrong way

[GuiltyLion]

even though invis is acting quite scummy i cant help but feel im wrong after my last mistake

have you considered re-evaluating your Manatee TR at all

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not gonna rule out oka scum but he seems more genuinely invested in game-solving than half this playerlist and I definitely don't like the idea of lynching him today given that both Invis and MafMen are pushing it while null/scum-reading eachother.

Invis/Maf/Otter team kinda makes the most sense to me at the moment

[GuiltyLion]

maybe Invis/Manatee/Otter if MafMen is just being genuine yet dense with that Manatee townread

[GuiltyLion]

regardless, nearly all roads lead back to scum!Invisibility

I'd like everyone to try to conceptualize a logical 3 person scumteam that doesn't have Invisibility on it

[GuiltyLion]

he freezes when faced with shit as scum

what shit has he faced this game?

[GuiltyLion]

@guiltylion does scum go this far to defend their scumbuddy?

idk, like generally I'd say no and I still kinda lean that way this game but it's a WIFOM trap if you get too deep in it. It's possible he made an awkward buddy defense and then decided to just yolo commit to it guns blazing.

the other problem is I'm not sure I see the utility in scum!MafMen committing to removing an otherwise lynchable mislynch from the pool? like if he refuses to vote there all game then what's his path to winning? Antihero/Oath/hopefully-myself are hard sells, and I think that's (fingers crossed) all town bloc. So he'd have whoever is town in {Oka/Otter/Invis} to push and then he's out of options.

[GuiltyLion]

the thing that gets me is that scum need to plan for one of their own to flip this game, it's really hard to push 3 straight mislynches together without being too obvious by the third when you get to 4v3. if MafMen is the designated guy to go down then his hard defense of Manatee might be an intentional effort to try to "spew" him as town. Though that might be reading too much into it?

I need some Otter reads pronto

[GuiltyLion]

Otter's take on everyone but I know he's on V/LA so gotta wait until Monday

he's just kind of a void in my gamestate view as well

[GuiltyLion]

and if he could somehow magically IC-level-towntell then it'd go a long way towards pointing to scum!Manatee (bc I really don't think all three scum pushed that Korina wagon) and scum!Manatee almost guarantees scum!MafMen and easy win

[GuiltyLion]

well maybe not guarantees but I find it hard to believe town!MafMen would be so committed to a misread that bad

[GuiltyLion]

I need to think over the weekend about whether I'd rather lynch MafMen or Invisibility today in terms of which is most likely to flip scum and whose potential townflip would be worse for the game

[GuiltyLion]

yah I'm good with an Invisibility lynch first I decided. He's been posting elsewhere on-site and not here, despite being the most likely lynch

[GuiltyLion]

I'm thinking the team of Invis/Maf/GL is more likely than Invis/Maf/Otter...

this isn't the team but I'd be playing pretty badly if it were lmao

[GuiltyLion]

hopefully the Manatee replacement can come in and obvtown

[GuiltyLion]

my favorite memory of Raymond James stadium is Flacco coming in there and dropping 5 TDs in the first ~16 minutes of the game

[GuiltyLion]

you have oka/otter playing games that look town and are town like 75% of the time but aren't impossible to fake as scum

you have invisibility/manatee-slot/mafmen refusing to play and not even trying to look town

the game is hard enough when mafia are trying to pretend to be town but it's nearly impossible when people aren't even trying to be town

on the invisibility Blackstar vote switch, it does look spontaneous but some people play loose as scum. I think spontaneous votes are more of a playstyle thing than an alignment thing, some people are worried about giving reasons for vote switching as either alignment and some people don't care as either alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

idk what more to do until we get Otter catchup and Manatee replace

[GuiltyLion]

2. GuiltyLion - likely town
3. MafMen - null
4. ManateeDude - lynchbait
5. OkaPoka - scumlean
6. Oath - town
7. Invisibility - dog
8. Antihero - likely town
9. LuckyOtter - null
{Oka, mafmen, Lucky}
VOTE: okapoka

the thing that worries me about a Invis/Otter/Maf team is I don't think scum!Invisibility would be

so bad

as to literally put both partners as null and give reads on everyone else

so I wonder if, assuming scum!Invis, one of the "null"s here is town and there's a third scum hiding in one of the other reads

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still a lil tempted to pivot to Mafmen

like given the game state, who are being active posters vs who is inactive, and the consensus scumreads on Invis/Maf, the only way this game state really makes sense is if third scum is Otter/Manatee and the team as a whole has given up

worst case scenario where town!Invisibility and scum!Oka or scum!Oath, then Invisibility mislynch would be setting us up for chaos tomorrow

that's why we need content from those Otter/Manatee slots

[GuiltyLion]

another weird thing is if town!Invis or town!Maf you'd expect them to be pushing on the other one though

[GuiltyLion]

i'm only worried about the third partner if Invis is somehow town (in which case he should be far more worried about finding the scumteam in general)

if Invisibility flips scum then we're going straight to MafMen for general scumminess (WK of Manatee, lack of scumreads, hammer and then immediate out of character apologizing for hammer), plus the awkward distancing between the two (null/scum reading eachother all game, but lack of vote when push comes to shove and both are dueling wagons)

[GuiltyLion]

hell im voting oka rn

why is Oka more likely to be scum than Invisibility

[GuiltyLion]

I'd like to think on my best day I could/would go 1v1 against Anti

haven't wanted to do that this game though because I've basically agreed with pretty much everything he's said. not that I'm disagreeing much with Oka either, seems like the two main points are:
1) Oka thinks Anti is faking annoyance with Invisibility
2) Anti thinks Oka is spreading needless paranoia about his slot
I disagree with 1) but I don't think it's necessarily scummy for Oka to feel that way. Agree with 2) but also don't think that's necessarily scummy.

Oka it does seem weird that you're saying it's dependent on Invis flipping scum - if Invisibility was town would that make Anti's frustration somehow less fake?

this kinda feels like a TvT to me though still without a confident read on Manatee/Otter it's hard to be sure about Oka

[GuiltyLion]

i thought invis/korina/? was likely but when korina flipped green i dropped the read on invis

why was Invis/Korina likely when Invis was driving the Korina wagon?! and how does Korina flipping town make Invis look less scummy?

[GuiltyLion]

GL can I just get a clarification as to what extent you value reading someone based on tone vs. content? Like, are they both valuable, and are they equally valuable to you?

I don't really have a strict philosophy about this, they're both valuable in that they're both data points you can use to try to form your conclusion, but I think it varies depending on how significantly townie/scummy the given piece of evidence is. Most of all I think I value looking at whether someone's thought process seems

genuine

, which can come down to both tone and content.

Like if someone is making an argument or supporting a conclusion that just seems really forced and unnatural, then I would say their content feels scummy as I have a hard time comprehending how a townie genuinely believes that argument/conclusion. If someone is projecting an emotion which seems forced or faked, then I would say the tone feels scummy as I have a hard time comprehending how a townie genuinely feels that way. The strength/value of that evidence depends on how hard it is for me to get into their mindset and justify them pushing that content/projecting that tone as town. And on the flipside, if someone makes an argument I can't imagine them making as scum, or projecting emotion which I don't think they would fake as scum, then that gives them towncred.

does that make sense? Most of all I try to look for people who look authentic in how they post, both in content and tone, and do it in a way that makes me think they'd have a hard time replicating that play as scum. The best scum players (or at least, the ones that consistently fool me) are the ones who can be authentic and make arguments they believe, only they're using those genuine pushes to advance an informed win-con.

if this relates to the shade I keep throwing at you, it's because I can see how all the arguments/points you are making make sense to me, they're usually things I agree with and I don't think you're ever reaching or twisting logic to support your agenda. But tone-wise you're very composed and neutral, and it makes me wary because while I can imagine town being composed/neutral, it's also where scum strive to be when they don't feel comfortable faking emotions. With you it's more of an absence of hallmark towniness rather than anything explicitly scummy. every post leaves me like "yeah, that looks fairly town, but it's not something I can't imagine posting as scum"

[GuiltyLion]

i had a gutfeeling that invisibility was bussing korina as well as that post i quoted day 1 solidifying it for me

also I honestly forgot that at the time I did find that Invis post that you quoted fairly scummy as well, so being fair I can see how you'd see that as SvS and remembered agreeing with you on that point

I didn't think it got less scummy after the Korina townflip though

[GuiltyLion]

my latest feeling is here

lock town: {Anti, Oath}
prob town: {Oka}
mehhh: {Otter, Maf, Manatee}
scum: {Invis}

I was kinda waiting a day or so to post this but with some reflection on his responses to me I'm finding Maf less scummy than 356 probably implies, if Invisibility flips scum and I'm dead I wouldn't advocate a straight up Maf quicklynch, I'd try to probe this Otter/Manatee uncertainty first

Otter's reads feel kinda like textbook consensus with the current gamestate, not quite sure what that means at the moment. if he's town then hopefully we're just bang-on with our scumreads and scumteam isn't trying that hard (which feels kinda like the naive best-case scenario and probably not likely if I'm being realist/pessimist), if he's scum then it means Invis is probably scum getting the bus but the third scum is likely safer than MafMen. I don't think that post makes sense coming from Otter in Otter/Maf/Invis world

[GuiltyLion]

Gut says Mafmen slightly scummier, but Invisibility being a liability going forward makes an equally good candidate, maybe better because if we lynch Maf and he turns up town, I don't feel much better about Invis!town, whereas if we lynch Invis and he turns up town, I feel somewhat better about Maf!town and burning down my reads and starting over.

can you clarify why Invis town points to Maf town? Who becomes scummier on a town!Invisibility flip?

[GuiltyLion]

I will answer this, and then I want you to answer it, because in your previous post Invisibility is scum in both of your scenarios.

412 is a quality post. That's a way of breaking it down that makes a compelling argument for town!Mafmen if town!Invis, because you're right that MafMen's play seems a little gratuitous and low equity in a town!Invisibility world.

The problem I'm struggling with is if MafMen

and

Invisibility are town, it means my gamestate view is completely absolutely wrong and I'm running out of POE suspects for scum. There's definitely scum on the Korina wagon, if it's not MafMen nor Invisibility then it means Oka is most likely scum and then either it's you+Manatee (possible, I guess?) or I'm completely snowed by at least one of Anti or Oath. I really really don't feel like Anti or Oath are scum - the worst I can say about either is that Oath has felt a tiiiny bit like she's sucking up to Anti/me at times but it absolutely pales in comparison to the amount of original analysis she's bringing and the sense that I get that all of her posts are coming from a place of genuinely trying to game-solve rather than push an agenda. So I can't imagine re-visiting either of those townreads, which means either the team is exactly you/Manatee/Oka or at least one of Invis/Maf is scum, basically, which is part of why I'm fairly set on scum!Invis

[GuiltyLion]

@GL- why are you voting for Invisibility again?

part POE because of my townreads on the Korina wagon (Anti, Oath, Oka-to-a-lesser-but-still-significant-extent)

part things covered in the thread already (convenient wagon hops, disappears from thread for large periods of time with no effort to game solve or advance content)

part the fact that every single one of his votes has felt convictionless - never have I gotten a sense from Invisibility that there's any pro-town intention behind his votes. Some of his votes have had reasons attached, but the reason always feels more like a justification for the vote rather than a

driving factor

that caused him to make the vote, if that makes sense.

[GuiltyLion]

Until you get to know me, these things ought to be completely NAI for you given that you have a very similar writing style (don't you think? Maybe you're not aware) so long as it doesn't appear that I'm being overly cautious in my actual gameplay

also I don't think of myself as having been guarded/careful this game

like I've contradicted myself on a few points, made a few careless errors, am not afraid to walk the "here's who I'm scumreading but here's a hedge in universes where I'm wrong" line, was pushing the Korina wagon along while being off it, etc

but I also don't think scum!you would think to describe town!me this way, it feels genuine

[GuiltyLion]

I don't particularly like this from Otter. Everything else seemed great up until here, but then I try to imagine what motivation you could have for casting doubt onto GL when you've already agreed that you two share a similar writing style and tone? It seems like you're trying to cast doubt on GL subtley and then backtracking on it. Real talk ? Seems like you're worried about what happens after the Invisibility flip since GL seems to be the only one that really has you as an option in the back of their mind still.

also

I kinda felt this way at first, but I think it does make sense in the context of everything else Otter posted. like if Otter is town here then they're likely struggling with the same thing I am where you have scum!Invis, mayybe scum!Maf, but then kind of a void where third scum fits in, and so I would expect me to be in their suspect pool especially since we were both off the Korina wagon. And the point about my attitude shift on "tone" while also clarifying that he may be misreading/taking my first post too literally feels a little too nuanced for most scumplay - I feel scum is more likely to either push it or not bring it up at all, rather than try to do the "here's what I have a problem with but also here's a town!explanation for it" line that Otter went with.

[GuiltyLion]

how do you guys even sort whether someone sounds genuine, to me genuine is something i say when im too lazy to explain deeper and i just have a gut feeling that they are town

genuine for me mostly points at "it's hard for me to imagine that this person posted this while knowing that their point/argument is wrong/bullshit/fake"

the tricky thing is - like I said earlier - good scum will find ways to make genuine arguments that still push what they want to push

like the thing is with my 449, if Otter

knows

that I'm town then he knows everything I've posted has been exactly how I've felt, for a fact. So I feel like it'd be harder for him to describe my posts as "guarded" or "careful" because I think someone reading my posts with the prior knowledge that I'm town wouldn't be inclined see them as particularly composed, they would rather probably be biased to perceive them as more extemporaneous (which they are)

[GuiltyLion]

it's why you always have to be careful with examining someone else's townreads - scum!me is money at posting townreads which sound nice & genuine & game-solvey because I can drum up a lot of plausible reasons for why I think someone who I know is town is town

scumreads are nearly always going to be easier to spot as being contrived/bullshitty

[GuiltyLion]

I'm town, I'm just tired/slightly inebriated and going off on side tangent/rants about mafia in the abstract

when I'm self-metaing about how I play as scum I'm not like trying to make a big point about this particular game I'm just trying to use examples to say why "genuine" is loosely associated with towniness but not always

maybe a better example is MafMen's TR on manatee - like I said in 97, if scum!MafMen and town!Manatee then it can be a "genuine" case for town!Manatee that's still coming from scum.

[GuiltyLion]

personally i'm mostly just waiting for Invisibility to get lynched and firing out random side takes in the hopes that it spins off something else AI in the meantime

i feel Otter's posts were pretty good, first impression is that I feel better about him which makes Manatee probably another scum which helps explain game slowing down the past few days

I'm kinda hoping it's just Invis/Maf/Manatee and we (you, Anti, me) are spinning our wheels because the scumteam isn't trying

is there anything to be gleaned from Manatee pseudo-replacing out then joining back in

Manatee what was your thought process there? why did you request replace out originally? and while 445 is funny it's also extremely bogus if you're actually town and that's the best you can do

[GuiltyLion]

like here's the narrative of the Invis/Maf/Manatee team

Manatee comes under fire early and Maf decides to defend him, gets heat for this and commits to it rather than backing down

Invis plays a loosey-goosey game and plays a large part in securing a Korina mislynch, Maf jumps on when he feels enough time has passed where he can convincingly join the wagon

Maf takes the "Invis is scum bussing" angle to put some distance between him and Invis and hopefully dissuade the idea of them being paired, with the added benefit that on Korina townflip it gives him a reason to back off Invisibility on D2

town/thread consensus somewhat quickly pivots hard against Invisibility, scumteam slightly caught off guard by this and don't know what to do

Maf doesn't want to vote Invis cause he knows between his flak that he's taken and Manatee not playing, they're going to lose if Invis goes down

Invis doesn't want to post much because he doesn't want to give associatives/dig his whole further

Manatee gives up and replaces out, then comes back because Kublai can't replace the slot and feels bad for abandoning

someone tell me where I'm wrong here or why this isn't what happened

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - dig his hole** further

[GuiltyLion]

and oka shade on anti is incredibly blech

here's scum trying to maybe jump in to the one biggest potential crack in the Anti/Oath/GL/sort-of-Oka townbloc that is mostly impenetrable

w/ extra shade at Oka & myself in his other posts to maybe see if anyone else will bite there

[GuiltyLion]

-I agree with Anti that Invis is going to be a lylo liability. I don't like the initial vote on Manatee, though the vote on Korina seems fine. D2, he gives some reads with no explanation. There's nothing offensive to the current gamestate in it so this would be a really easy list to throw up as scum. I'd say Invis!scum means Maf!scum and Oka!town based on his reads and who he ends up voting.
- Mafmen is a strong scumread. There are some posts that feel fake to me (the reactions to the Korina hammer come to mind. When I get more time later tonight I'll come back to this thought). It continues to bother me how hesitant he is with his scumreads. When he does finally come up with some reads, he gives {Invis, Korina, Oka} based entirely on PoE and ends up voting Korina D1 and Oka D2, still based on PoE. Sixteen pages in and there's still no substance to this read other than he thinks the argument between Oka and Anti is contrived (so why not scumread Anti as well? because it's not popular to do so?) So, in a scumteam of Maf and Invis, both are scumreading each other while never voting each other, and they both end up voting Korina D1 and Oka D2. Lynching either of these peeps should give us some good info.
- Manatee actually feels scummiest to me. He's done literally nothing of substance except complain about the early wagon on himself, townread Oath and Oka for no real reason, and vote me on gut. Also, the claim that he and Maf could never be SvS is unsubstantiated and suspicious. However, I don't think lynching this slot is very helpful at the moment.

rereading all of this again and I feel it's all pretty much spot on and a rather succinct way of putting the problems with each of those three slots

[GuiltyLion]

also explained by Maf/Invis/Manatee team: Invis going from "I see the scumreads on manatee" in 47 to "he's lynchbait" in 67

honestly if you reread the entire first 3-4 pages of the game under the lens of Maf/Invis/Manatee the whole thing pretty much makes sense

I think we've got it here ladies and gentlemen, let's move onwards with the Invis lynch

[GuiltyLion]

Yah Anti I can see that. I guess I'm just townreading Oka in isolation so I'm putting less stock in Invis/Manatee/Oka overall. But it's definitely a potential alternate world that deserves serious consideration.

I'm thinking Manatee is the best lynch if/when Invis flips scum. MafMen has already set himself up not to vote there. Will be interesting to see if Oka will join on.

[GuiltyLion]

ugh

[GuiltyLion]

Vote Count

Korina - 5 - Oath, Invisibility, Antihero, OkaPoka, MafMen
MafMen - 2 - LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion
Invisibility - 1 - Korina
LuckyOtter - 1 - ManateeDude

Not Voting -

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count

Invisiblity - 5 - GuiltyLion, OkaPoka, Oath, LuckyOtter, Antihero
OkaPoka - 2 - Invisibility, MafMen
MafMen - 1 - ManateeDude

Not Voting -

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

On both wagons: Oath, Oka, Anti
On one but not the other: Otter, Maf, GL
off both: Manatee

[GuiltyLion]

yeah I'm not sure what to think yet, gonna need to do a deep reset

[GuiltyLion]

my gut is saying townies are Oath, Anti, and Manatee

and thus scum is Maf/Otter/Oka

but I am gonna sit on that for a while, reread, see if everything makes sense, see what others bring to the table first

[GuiltyLion]

alright well there's at least one townie confirmed in Anti/Oath/Oka

I'm around but haven't really reread or reset yet

[GuiltyLion]

I want to know Maf's thoughts especially now that Manatee has voted him

[GuiltyLion]

yeah but the longer you're not hammered, the more likely it is that one of you two are scum

[GuiltyLion]

like since Anti/Oath/Oka/myself have all been around, either Otter is confirmed scum to you or Manatee

[GuiltyLion]

spicy

[GuiltyLion]

it doesnt make him scummy
hell i think it makes him more likely to be town

man this is like real hard for me to grok

like most of the time I'm automatically inclined to consider people voting me as more scummy

and then in LYLO it's literally either they're scum or the game is soon to be over

so I don't see how it makes him "more likely to be town" or at least why town would ever say/think that

like if you think he's town you should be begging him to unvote

[GuiltyLion]

if we can go a day or so with everyone posting and around at the same time and no hammers

then it will confirm either scum!Maf or scum!Manatee/scum!Oka

Anti do you have any worries about Maf/Manatee/Otter team? Then Oka would be the game winning mislynch

[GuiltyLion]

Oka/Maf feels plausible with Oka's positioning around Manatee's early vote

it's just scary to bet the game on either town!Manatee or town!Maf at this point and it sucks that we're likely going to have to do that in some form or another

[GuiltyLion]

begging him to unvote is retarded

i mean not if you care about winning the game

[GuiltyLion]

i mean you don't have to literally beg

but you seem extremely indifferent about a game-losing vote placed on you

and still refuse to consider the possibility of a scum!Manatee

it's just insanely hard to fathom how your TR on him can be this strong

[GuiltyLion]

did you consider my point about how if Manatee is town then Otter would be confirmed scum FYPOV

[GuiltyLion]

So my axiomatic read here is gonna be town Anti

MafMen voting him and also still doubling down on Otter and Manatee townreads is insane. Literally game-losing behavior if he's town.

That said, it makes me wonder, why does he feel the need to townread Otter here? If Otter is town is that meant to be a buddying play? Or is that WIFOM for his scumflip to messy associatives with Otter?

Oka I assume a quicklynch wouldn't be hard to coordinate because mafia have daytalk. If I were scum I'd be posting my availability/schedule in the thread and if all three of us were online I'd absolutely be coordinating an exact time to hammer

Oath calling MafMen lock scum and voting Otter is also ??? Oath why would you NOT vote MafMen?

[GuiltyLion]

Given MafMen scum, why does Manatee vote him right out the gate if they're paired together?

[GuiltyLion]

Like pre-emptive bus is the only explanation I can think of. But given how he's played this game and the fact that he himself said he doesn't care to try to look town, it seems less likely that he'd be playing for towncred by voting his partner first thing in LYLO. And MafMen is not trying at all to bus him back to further distance

[GuiltyLion]

bad town is definitely a thing but I'm almost at the point where I no longer care, because if he's town then there's definitely scum in Manatee or Otter and if he won't vote either slot ever then we can't win anyway

[GuiltyLion]

yeah Oath is still town

[GuiltyLion]

the game is gonna come down to figuring out Maf/Manatee

I think it's either Maf/Otter/Oka, Manatee/Otter/Oka (this team is risk to quickhammer Anti, if they all show up at the same time we could rule them out), Maf/Man/Oka, or Maf/Man/Otter

[GuiltyLion]

whenever I stop just hip firing takes and actually really do a deep think for a couple hours, I'll figure out which of those teams is most/least likely and where I want to bet the game

[GuiltyLion]

a) why would I consider Anti
- nobody who is scumreading him is really making a convincing case on him at all

b) you think scum are only voting each other right now?

[GuiltyLion]

I say let the vote stand

as I pointed out earlier - if MafMen is town yet never votes Otter/Manatee this game, then the game is already lost anyway. This is objective fact no matter who you are or who is scum, as any team exclusively in GL/Oka/Oath/Anti is both a) pretty much ruled out as it would have hammered Maf and b) can still hammer Maf at any time while Manatee's vote is there anyway

[GuiltyLion]

oh man is Oath about to hammer

[GuiltyLion]

or not

this is me not hammering

is Otter here

[GuiltyLion]

lulz if that was a failed QH

haven't seen one of those in a while

in any case Oka is now stuck voting MafMen as well so maybe we can get some more info?

[GuiltyLion]

if we stall with two Manatee/Oka votes on MafMen - and Anti/Oath town - that means it's either Manatee/Oka/Otter or Maf scum, right?

and more importantly, will MafMen actually wake up and see it?!

stay tuned

[GuiltyLion]

I guess objectively it could be Manatee/Oka/GL as well, but I wouldn't be writing post 581 instead of just QH'ing if I knew Oka was around

[GuiltyLion]

also I guess technically I'm wrong about MafMen refusing to vote Manatee/Otter being auto-loss

if we can get scum to bus today and then vote whoever's the third that's not Manatee/Otter (oka?), then we can win with town!Maf even if he's playing like a VI and refusing to consider a scumread on two of the three scum

[GuiltyLion]

alright so now the Otter/Manatee/GL team is officially ruled out, mirite

[GuiltyLion]

Maf you really need to unvote Antihero though

we still might lose whenever Manatee shows up again if it really is Manatee/Otter/Oka

[GuiltyLion]

sorry I've been putting this game off and I don't have much time today or tomorrow

current thing I want to really solve is how I feel about Oath's freakout and Otter/Oka votes instead of Maf. I'm like 80% on it being genuine, but still a little paranoid that it could be an AtE-laden attempt to outright win and avoid a lynch on partner!Maf? I need to review the interactions between her and MafMen and see if an Oath/Maf/[x-who-is-not-Manatee] team would make sense here. Then again the only thirds that would fit into such a team would be Otter/Oka, which feels a little unlikely given their interactions with Oath (though Otter v Oath could be drawn out theater). I'm mostly leaning this is not the case but I want to feel

good

about ruling it out before I decide not to vote Maf today

also I still think Oka's vote may have been an attempt at a coordinated quickhammer w/ Otter. Oka's gamestate view and play has substantially dropped off in effort/quality immediately before and after that vote as well

[GuiltyLion]

Hi just a quick check in, I still don't have time to play/think as much as I want to yet. Hopefully I can do that tomorrow morning, if not then then Monday for sure.

I have no intention to vote yet but leaning towards Oka. I hate to locktown someone for effort but that insane effort Oath post points her even more towards town for me.

Anyway we should get some more associatives from this double L-2 wagon so I'll keep an eye out for that

[GuiltyLion]

alright

I have read through everything again and I am now fully willing to bet the game on Oath and Anti being town

given this, plus the fact that there's at least one conf-scum in Maf/Manatee, means the only possible teams are:

Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Oka/Manatee/Maf

Otter and Oka seem to be quite a bit buddy-buddy after Oath has pushed back on the Maf lynch idea, which makes me inclined to think it's Otter/Oka/Manatee. Like Oath, I don't see any town motivation in Oka's sudden L-1 vote on Maf without warning after Antihero's vote. As long as it's not Otter/Manatee/Maf then voting Oka is a safe play, and so I intend do so within the next 24 hours or so - I'll let a few people respond to this post first.

Otter

- you seem deadset on lynching Maf today. Why haven't you voted him yet?

[GuiltyLion]

man

I know I said I would vote Oka but I'm just so scared to do it

Anti where did you go

[GuiltyLion]

@ GL, hold your horses, I'll vote him when I'm ready for the day to be done. Nobody is really saying much anymore except me and Oath, and I'm worried Oath is hard pushing an agenda for tomorrow, so I wanted to sort some things out before putting Maf at L-1. Why it’s suspicious for Oka to put Maf at L-1 and for me not to put him at L-1, and why you're calling me out for not voting when you aren't either is beyond me. What's your point?

eh I just wanted to see how you'd react and why you hadn't voted yet if you were so certain on Maf scum. I don't think you not voting him before this point, or the way you did it especially after me asking you about it is inherently suspicious, I'm just trying to assess how I feel about the likelihood of you vs Maf being town here.

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like this game is going in one direction and there really isn't anything else to do now but let it play out. I just have the fear that Maf really is town and it's Oka/Otter/Manatee, but of course Otter isn't gonna be on board with that. That is why I can't vote for Maf.

I genuinely would rather an Oka lynch for all the reasons I've stated. I don't even want an Otter lynch because that's too much of a risk. Oka, however, flips red here. MAYBE Manatee, but I only say that because of how much back and forth Otter and I have had over the difference between Maf and Manatee, which could all be garbage and it could be Maf/Manatee/Otter too and I'm completely wrong about Oka. I doubt it though because that L-1 vote HAUNTS ME. Maybe it's Oka/Manatee/Maf in some crazy gambit because of how scummy Maf and Manatee have been. I honestly don't know anymore. I felt confident at one point, but now I'm just tired.

this is basically exactly how I feel

every time I start to think I'm sure about something I get really paranoid

[GuiltyLion]

I'm just gonna trust my townreads on Anti and Oath over my scumreads on anyone else, if it's Manatee/Maf/Otter then gg. If we lose here then at least we lose together and I'll just be salty about Okas random L-1

Formal intent to vote Oka for real, just waiting for any last thoughts from Oath since she requested no lynch yet

[GuiltyLion]

1. How do you feel about voting Manatee?
2. Can you explain to me why you are so sure Oath is town and not scum pushing a mislynch here?
3. Can you explain to me what you think Oka's endgame strategy is? (Oath, I'd like you to answer that one as well)

1. Not that good about it. I don't really have a good reason to think Manatee is town, he very well could be scum, but it feels like a crapshoot choosing between him and MafMen and it's easy to imagine worlds where he is town against scum!Maf.

the problem is we may have to decide about him or Maf one way or the other tomorrow even if we lynch some other scum successfully today, but at least collectively we would have gained slightly more information since then.

2. Well, for starters, Oath has posted a ton of things that match up exactly with how I have been viewing the game, I've never smelled a whiff of disingenuous reasoning. Next, she's gone above and beyond to game-solve today and I don't think any of her effort has felt explicitly agenda-driven - like here's my question, why does scum!Oath with scum!MafMen go this hard to defend her buddy when she could probably take a much easier path by bussing him today and getting a mislynch on whoever's town in {GL/Otter/Oka/Manatee} tomorrow? Why does she instead go for that now when it would be much harder to fake and create so many more opportunities for her to get caught out with scummy reasoning? Why should I think her near instantaneous freakout when Oka placed an L-1 vote is because her partner was at L-1 when that would not even be a game losing lynch?

I'm never

sure

she's town but I'm never

sure

about anyone being town. She still fits a town profile better than almost every other player and I'd have to jump through far more hoops to feel good about making a towncase on virtually anyone else to take her spot instead. LikeI doubt you're gonna sell me on being more confident that someone like Manatee or Oka is town, but feel free to try?

3. I see two potential end game strategies for scum!Oka here:
1) Maf is town and the game winning mislynch, he's going for the win today on the easiest mislynch remaining - which to me is much riskier and more plausible than scum!Oath!
2) Maf is a buddy, Oka figured he was inevitably going down and is trying to bus for towncred to push town in Manatee/Otter/Anti tomorrow. Also not something I can rule out.

What I see as a very real possibility is that Oath is in a scumteam with the most lynchbaity players left, and has to work super hard to win the game right now. Especially given that one of them is never around to be able to pull off a quicklynch. Even if you don't believe this is the most likely scenario, I want you to explain to me how this could not be a plausible one.

see this is like a loosely plausible scenario but it feels so much less plausible than one where Oka is scum. Whoever is scum here (outside of Maf/Manatee) is playing a solid-to-great game, I don't see why you want me to indulge in paranoia about Oath specifically when I have more reasons to be paranoid about most everyone else. Like instead of scum!casing Oath, you're just saying "but what if she's scum?" and it feels very agenda driven. Like you think the team is Maf/Manatee/Oath? Why that team specifically instead of Maf/Manatee/Anti or Maf/Manatee/Oka?

[GuiltyLion]

hi

VOTE: mafmen

also like, the only case you gave on Anti was POE when I asked you about that, yet now you care about cases on you?

also
- randomly shading Anti throughout
- shaded MafMen for hammering despite the hammer being an entirely justifiable D1 hammer
- not really trying to game-solve D3, just pushing the MafMan lynch

[GuiltyLion]

okay im done sitting here and watching town play statistics and wifom and then lose this stupid ass game when we should have lynched mafmen yesterday.

mafmen has
a) quicklynched korina
b) gone off the rails with his manateedude defense
c) has managed to take irrational positions that make no sense to anyone, not even to himself
d) is not putting effort in explaining is reads at all

it is appalling that the best reason for not lynching mafmen i can find right now is him being a village idiot. no
lynch mafmen
ffs

also like, with this case

all those things suck and are anti-town, but none of them are scummy? like I don't see good reasons for town or scum to do them. but you are presenting them very firmly as if you are certain he's scum. there's paranoia missing

[GuiltyLion]

Otter and Manatee is what I'm most worried about

[GuiltyLion]

i dont know how otter scum game is but this is otter town game

how can you even say this lmao

otter scum is going to try to play to otter town game

I don't have

evidence

for scum!Otter per se which is why I'm not trying to lynch Otter today. but it's a pretty major gut feeling that's been nagging at me the whole game

[GuiltyLion]

alright

I have read through everything again and I am now fully willing to bet the game on Oath and Anti being town

given this, plus the fact that there's at least one conf-scum in Maf/Manatee, means the only possible teams are:

Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Oka/Manatee/Maf

Otter and Oka seem to be quite a bit buddy-buddy after Oath has pushed back on the Maf lynch idea, which makes me inclined to think it's Otter/Oka/Manatee. Like Oath, I don't see any town motivation in Oka's sudden L-1 vote on Maf without warning after Antihero's vote. As long as it's not Otter/Manatee/Maf then voting Oka is a safe play, and so I intend do so within the next 24 hours or so - I'll let a few people respond to this post first.

[GuiltyLion]

mafmen has
a) quicklynched korina
b) gone off the rails with his manateedude defense
c) has managed to take irrational positions that make no sense to anyone, not even to himself
d) is not putting effort in explaining is reads at all

also like, with this case

all those things suck and are anti-town, but none of them are scummy? like I don't see good reasons for town or scum to do them. but you are presenting them very firmly as if you are certain he's scum. there's paranoia missing

tbf

b is a good point and now that manatee's play here is clearly more resembling his supposed scum-meta and diverging from his play in the town game otter linked, it's looking less sucky and anti-town and more agenda-driven

i also think c is a good point and it indicates bad/unfortunate scum play on mafmen's part. like... it'd be sucky and anti-town if mafmen didn't KNOW his play in voting me was egregiously suboptimal from a town!him POV but that clearly wasn't the case

i would add "e) denying that scumhunting CAN happen in an arbitrary window of time" to oka's case

yeh, these are good points

and to be clear I def think it's good odds Maf is scum

but it's concerning that Oka doesn't seem worried

at all

an Oka/Maf/Manatee team almost feels like the best fit to me, but then I don't really see what Oka's path to winning there is or an explanation for his play

[GuiltyLion]

no, I just want you to be worried

[GuiltyLion]

sorry for caring about winning the game dude

your snark is only making me not want to vote MafMen

[GuiltyLion]

-MafMen refuses to scumread Manatee beyond all logical explanation
-Manatee refuses to play and towntell beyond all logical explanation
-Oka drops an immediate unannounced L-1 after Antihero's L-2 vote in what looks like a nonchalant quickhammer attempt
-yet Maf/Man/Oka makes very little sense as a team

this game is dumb and if we lose I'm absolutely gonna be tilted at whoever is town in you three

[GuiltyLion]

idk if I have to choose between town in Oath/Oka I'm choosing Oath as town

[GuiltyLion]

if you and Oath are town then it's Otter/Manatee/Maf? How do you explain Otter's play today then?

you absolutely should say an L-1 is coming when there's potential game-ending quickhammers on the table

[GuiltyLion]

like how does Otter go from this:

A.scum!Maf + scum!Invis = Maf conveniently shifts away from his partner
B.scum!Maf + town!Invis = Maf decides not to go after an easy lynch for some reason? Maybe for towncred, but staying off a townie lynch doesn't buy that much towncred anyway, especially when the townie in question is being scummy (and Maf even says so)
C.town!Maf + town!Invis = Maf is legit questioning his Invis read
D.town!Maf + scum!Invis = Maf is legit questioning his Invis read (but shouldn't be)

If Invis flips town scenario C makes more sense to me. If he flips scum I feel a bit better about A than D but it's not a lockdown.

to "lynching anyone other than Maf today is insane"

[GuiltyLion]

Invis flipped town and Manatee voted Maf?!? Which of those "game-changing events" fundamentally changed the logic of 412 ?

[GuiltyLion]

Like did you even read your own post that I quoted??

[GuiltyLion]

Egghhh

It's either Manatee Maf Oath or Manatee Otter Ima.

Nothing else really makes sense to me.

Should we lynch Manatee today

[GuiltyLion]

It also feels like Maf's lynch is agenda driven and that's the point of today, which is exactly why I'm pushing back against it. There is something wrong with Oka's vote. Period. That isn't how this game is played. Town have zero motivation for that. So either Oka is scum pushing a mislynch on Maf or Oka is scum bussing Maf for credit and setting up a mislynch for tomorrow (which I don't find as likely, BUT it is possible if Manatee is town). I feel like at this point, scum wants us to lynch Maf (regardless of alignment). It seems like lynchbait, too easy.

this this this

also Maf, I also can't be scum to you because I am also not hammering

like literally FYPOV the only scum team is lucky/manatee/oka

[GuiltyLion]

Ultimately end of the day I feel Oka/Otter's play looks a lot more like scum emulating townplay than MafMen/Oath's play. If Oath is scum then she did more for town than the majority of townies in this game. If MafMen is scum then props for committing to go 100% in on "act like a VI" strategy

Only outcome where I feel really bad about this is Otter/Manatee/Maf team. But I don't think Otter defends Maf on D2 like he did if they are teamed together.

VOTE: Oka

[GuiltyLion]

Like to the point that if someone had hammered and Maf was town and we lost that I would never play with a townOka again.

:O

[GuiltyLion]

hahaha it's only a lil mean

mostly I just like the conviction

[GuiltyLion]

I'd play with you again Oka

(also I don't necessarily think people who play reckless are playing well but I still like playing with them, it adds an extra challenge to the game to sort them accurately. and it's basically impossible to find an online team game where everyone plays optimally/smart 100% of the time. maybe I'd care more if we had ELO/rank in MafiaScum lmao)

[GuiltyLion]

ideally we don't lynch Maf at all

if we lynch Maf and he flipped scum I'd probably go for Oka tomorrow regardless. Maf's defense of Manatee is too close to a WK for me to feel good about Maf -> Manatee lynch, and I do think rereading Otter/Maf on D2 that Otter would know that his defense would look bad on D3 if Maf were to get lynched and flip scum on D2.

[GuiltyLion]

wouldn't we quickhammer Oka

[GuiltyLion]

and by we I mean they

lmao I know that looks weird but it's late and I just assumed Anti/I were on the same team bc that's what I've been thinking this whole game

point stands that Anti/Otter/Maf would hammer Oka here

[GuiltyLion]

Ugh

Oath don't throw this. You're going to be pissed when Otter comes in here and hammers

[GuiltyLion]

Like, seriously, you put more stock in a midnight tired ass post that I made over Okas attempted quickhammer???? I'm extremely careful as scum to vet my posts and not make dumbass perspective slips like that. I invite you to go through my scum games and see if you can find a SINGLE instance where I've ever slipped like that

[GuiltyLion]

Seriously unvote when you see this or we lose, I guarantee it and I take no responsibility for you solving the game then backing down because of a single post

Like can you imagine a universe where I make that post as town? If so then why bias it so much against a blatant quickhammer attempt?

[GuiltyLion]

Oh. Well I'm town so

[GuiltyLion]

Did we just lose

[GuiltyLion]

honestly was surprised at the flip by the point that that flip happened

I was expecting scum to come in to push me today especially with Antihero NK as uniquely FMPOV both scum bussed MafMen. the fact that Oka didn't do that makes me think he might be town - but I'm going to reread D3 and see why a scumteam wouldn't have hammered him if he were town and at L-1/L-2 for a significant period of time.

Oka who do you think the third is if it's Manatee? Otter, Oath, or me?

[GuiltyLion]

Or oka is just scum going for the hard bus strategy. Either way, I'm almost certainly voting manatee today.

Otter I don't really follow this at all? If Oka is scum and bussing a scum!Manatee then he's literally playing to lose??

[GuiltyLion]

oka's town

literally this AGAIN for another straight day in LYLO?

HE IS VOTING YOU IN LYLO IF YOU ARE TOWN HE IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY TO BE TOWN

I'm struggling hard to parse this stupidity - obviously got it wrong on MafMen yesterday - I hate to throw the game on it if it's truly town but I feel it's more likely these are fake dumbtells because they almost worked for Maf yesterday

[GuiltyLion]

I've been rereading again

and I feel like I have to decide whether Oath or Oka is town. It's either Oka/Otter/Maf going for the game winning mislynch today or it's Oath/Manatee/Maf and Oath has tried her damnedest to save a team of two weak scum players who are trying to skate by on dumb telling and not playing

[GuiltyLion]

there's still a part of me that just wants to say fuck it and lynch Manatee and absolve myself of responsibility if he's actually town here because of his garbage play. Townreads 3 out of 4 remaining players in LYLO against 2 scum like how am I supposed to ever feel good about townreading that

[GuiltyLion]

wait what

[GuiltyLion]

Oka/Oath? damn

[GuiltyLion]

e_e

Oath and Oka you guys played pretty well. I came around on Oka by LYLO but Oath definitely snowed me

I'm sorry we couldn't pull through Otter :/

[GuiltyLion]

I should have stuck with my page 1 Invisibility/Korina townreads

[GuiltyLion]

I wish I could have seen how Oath was gonna play this out

bc with Oka's first vote, if Manatee had simply cross-voted or not-voted, you would either have to push Oka (v dangerous without voting to back it up) or reverse tack and go on Manatee while pushing me as scum?

it worked masterfully at disassociating you guys but Oath would have had a tricky time playing today I think

[GuiltyLion]

although 4 is a really small sample size and I was in another run of it so maybe I'm part of the problem

that said, it does seem easier to sow confusion with a team of 3 instead of 2. Mountainous is supposed to help town I guess but you still only get the same number of mislynches

[GuiltyLion]

I also def made a mistake in assuming first lynch didn't have all three scum on it... that was cheeky of you

otter I truly did keep wanting to townread on D3 but felt like it had to be either him/manatee in some sense and that blinded me heavily to Oka/Oath possibility I think

[GuiltyLion]

yeah another takeaway was I should have put less stock in "Invisibility fits on any team" reasoning because there's a big hole in that logic when one of your solid townreads (Oath) is wrong

Invis your last run of posts wasn't bad but you def should have been more vocal/participating earlier especially once we started looking your way

[GuiltyLion]

yah Oath played extremely well - very perceptive of how things look from a town perspective and she beat me to the punch with her posts on a lot of things I was thinking about

in hindsight I could've paid more attention to the subtle buddying of Anti/myself and some weird excessive AtE but it was nothing that ever made me really want to lynch her

[GuiltyLion]

I had fun playing with ya Anti