Micro 813 - Game Over

[LuckyOtter]

As a native midwesterner I am obligated to point out that Land O'Lakes butter was founded in and is still based in Minnesota.

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: Invisibility for supporting LOLcheese. Renards is clearly superior.

[LuckyOtter]

im still not seeing the case against me
im sure manatee isnt scum but w/e
VOTE: Antihero
until i get an explanation my vote is placed here

Why are you so sure?

i know his meta and the case on him is bad

There's so little to go off of I don't know how you could be so sure of this.

I honestly don't care about the RVS vote switch. The thing that feels more scummy is the deflecting in posts 41 and 51 without giving any other direction. If he's town there is probably scum pushing his wagon and he shouldn't be too concerned about calling one of them out. For instance, Invisibility's vote is weak. This feels like scum wanting to avoid getting his vote called OMGUS.

Not confident enough that I want him lynched yet, though. Want to hear why Mafmen is so sure Manatee is town.

[LuckyOtter]

my explanation is his meta
i bet if any of you were in his spot, being pushed because of rvs shit, you would deflect it

1. Yes, and I said it's so early and there's so little substance, I don't see how you can be so sure of this. Like, what exactly are you seeing and how does it relate to his meta?
2. Sure would, but like I said, I would push back by trying to find the scum on my wagon. Or, if I didn't think it was scumled, I'd push back by helping town find the better wagon. So far he's not doing either.

[LuckyOtter]

@Manatee, but you

do

feel frozen here. You've not really done anything of substance yet except give one townread and try to deflect your wagon.
--
@Invisibility

that response makes me want to rip off my eyelashes

But do you find it alignment indicative?

Also, why Korina and not someone else on the manatee wagon if you think he's lynchbait?
--
@Mafmen, for clarification, does the unvote mean you don't include antihero as one of the voters you see as likely scum? Who are you scumreading?

[LuckyOtter]

Why Blackstar then?

[LuckyOtter]

Back atcha GL. TRing you until I have a good reason not to though.

[LuckyOtter]

Plenty can happen in 5 pages. There's enough material to at least have a gut read or two. This is becoming a poor excuse to try to stay neutral.

[LuckyOtter]

Putting my money where my mouth is, slight scumread on you for your insistence on being neutral so as not to cause waves, and Manatee and Invisibility are pinging me as slightly scummy, though still assessing their playstyles. Invisibility might just be lynchbait. Gun to my head I lynch among you three at the moment.

See, not hard.

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: Mafmen
We're on page 6 now, if that's helping you form reads yet.

I probably won't actually be able to sort Invisibility today. I feel the same way Oka does. Korina can you elaborate? Because I'm not seeing it. You looked a little lynch-happy very early (regardless of who you were actually voting) and Invisibility voted you for that. What's the issue?

[LuckyOtter]

any questions for me about the game so far?

Are you scum?

Kind of interested in your take on the Manatee business, though, tbh.

[LuckyOtter]

V/LA through Monday

I may have some time in the evenings to make some posts. We'll see.

[LuckyOtter]

Here. I'll be catching up today.

[LuckyOtter]

The TLDR:
Townreading: Oath, Antihero, Oka
Null: GuiltyLion
Scumreading: Mafmen, Invisibility > Manatee

The T:
-Antihero v Oka reads as TvT to me. Stronger TR on Anti than Oka. Oka has the ability to be both genuinely engaged in a game while getting sidetracked with pointless squabble.
-I agree with Anti that Invis is going to be a lylo liability. I don't like the initial vote on Manatee, though the vote on Korina seems fine. D2, he gives some reads with no explanation. There's nothing offensive to the current gamestate in it so this would be a really easy list to throw up as scum. I'd say Invis!scum means Maf!scum and Oka!town based on his reads and who he ends up voting.
- Mafmen is a strong scumread. There are some posts that feel fake to me (the reactions to the Korina hammer come to mind. When I get more time later tonight I'll come back to this thought). It continues to bother me how hesitant he is with his scumreads. When he does finally come up with some reads, he gives {Invis, Korina, Oka} based entirely on PoE and ends up voting Korina D1 and Oka D2, still based on PoE. Sixteen pages in and there's still no substance to this read other than he thinks the argument between Oka and Anti is contrived (so why not scumread Anti as well? because it's not popular to do so?) So, in a scumteam of Maf and Invis, both are scumreading each other while never voting each other, and they both end up voting Korina D1 and Oka D2. Lynching either of these peeps should give us some good info.
- Manatee actually feels scummiest to me. He's done literally nothing of substance except complain about the early wagon on himself, townread Oath and Oka for no real reason, and vote me on gut. Also, the claim that he and Maf could never be SvS is unsubstantiated and suspicious. However, I don't think lynching this slot is very helpful at the moment.

Gut says Mafmen slightly scummier, but Invisibility being a liability going forward makes an equally good candidate, maybe better because if we lynch Maf and he turns up town, I don't feel much better about Invis!town, whereas if we lynch Invis and he turns up town, I feel somewhat better about Maf!town and burning down my reads and starting over.

intent to vote Invisibility

but not going to put at L-1 until Manatee's replacement comes and catches up. I also have complicated feelings about GL that I want to explore before the end of the day and don't have time to right now.

One of Manatee/GL is likely scum off the Korina lynch, but probably not both. Manatee much more likely but I want to keep rereading GL.

GL can I just get a clarification as to what extent you value reading someone based on tone vs. content? Like, are they both valuable, and are they equally valuable to you?

More later. Sorry not to have been able to keep up while away and if that caused the game to slow down.

[LuckyOtter]

since yall aint scummy im just gonna poe this shit

Almost Definitely Town: GuiltyLion, Manatee, LuckyOtter, Oath
Slight Town: Antihero

Scum POE : Invisibility, Korina, OkaPoka (probably will change later)

someone case me, because other than saying im "neutral" and anti's case, i havent heard anything else

You went from this to scumreading anti with very little explanation other than reading their argument as fake, is what I'm talking about.

[LuckyOtter]

yeah... atp invis has to go

I also have complicated feelings about GL that I want to explore before the end of the day and don't have time to right now.

most interesting sentence in above post

Interesting how? Be explicit.

are invis and mafmen really scumreading each other...?

That is indeed the question and my point. They both give the appearance of scumreading each other without really following through on it. Invis reads Maf as null but puts him in his lynch basket (but doesn't vote him) and Maf gives an early scumread of invis then backs out of it, supposedly because his scumread of invis hinged on korina being scum. If invis flips scum my money is on Maf using this excuse to back out of voting his partner.

[LuckyOtter]

Sorry Anti, I thought you were being shady there and saying 'interesting' as in 'mildly suspicious.' My bad.

I do promise to expand on my thoughts on GL after he responds to my question. I don't have a solid read on him just yet.

[LuckyOtter]

I asked for a couple of reasons. Partly because your view of tone as an argument seems to have shifted slightly.

Exhibit A:

my explanation is his meta

his tone is completely different as scum and town
and i mean COMPLETELY

I want the receipts on this one. "Meta" and "tone" are buzzwords that mean nothing. People can change their playstyle as they improve and personally my tone changes in all sorts of contexts, sometimes depending on whether I've eaten that day or not.

What games are you looking at with Manatee when he was town, what games when he was scum, what are the differences between those and why are his towntells that you've apparently seen already impossible for scum!him to replicate here?

VOTE: MafMen

You're pretty dismissive of Mafmen's use of tone in his own argument. Given what you've just said, I can see that maybe you didn't like the use of tone on its own as an excuse (especially since Maf didn't really explain this very clearly, which was my beef with the argument), but still calling tone a 'buzzword that means nothing' is pretty dismissive, especially considering that you go on to reference tone in your own view of me later on.

Exhibit B:

A. thats me jumping on a bandwagon which will dirty my image more even if its dumb
C. otters tone feels townie, yes that's a bad reason however im confident about it so i stuck them in "almost definitely town"

A. dude it's mafia you should never be concerned with your "image", primary concern is always exposing and lynching scum
C. this is weird because I think Otter's tone feels guarded/formal which is not usually what I associate with "townie", to me what feels townie about Otter is mostly just the actual content he's bringing

The change from Exhibit A to B that feels just a bit off. What I'm having to decide here is whether or not you meant to say in your first statement that tone is a 'buzzword that means nothing

if unsubstantiated

.' Based on your response I'm leaning yes.

The only hangup I still have here is that the words you have used to describe my tone, "guarded, formal, neutral, composed," are

exactly

how I read you. Until you get to know me, these things ought to be completely NAI for you given that you have a very similar writing style (don't you think? Maybe you're not aware) so long as it doesn't appear that I'm being overly cautious in my actual gameplay. Pedit: Apparently this is an actual concern of yours, so that lines up.

All this to say that I somewhat question how genuine your reads are. I can see a world in which you are scum keeping me as a lynch option open should the opportunity arise. But I can also see townie with genuine suspicion and paranoia and that resonates more with me right now. Responding to some other things momentarily.

[LuckyOtter]

Gut says Mafmen slightly scummier, but Invisibility being a liability going forward makes an equally good candidate, maybe better because if we lynch Maf and he turns up town, I don't feel much better about Invis!town, whereas if we lynch Invis and he turns up town, I feel somewhat better about Maf!town and burning down my reads and starting over.

can you clarify why Invis town points to Maf town? Who becomes scummier on a town!Invisibility flip?

I will answer this, and then I want you to answer it, because in your previous post Invisibility is scum in both of your scenarios.

To me, Invisibility feels scummy regardless of anyone else's alignment, whereas Mafmen is at least a little bit associative based on his moving his vote away from Invis. If Invis flips town I'm more likely to believe Maf's reasoning for his vote move and therefore need to reassess the whole situation. In that scenario, I'm looking to sort out you and Manatee, with Manatee being the current obvious choice.

I 100% agree that Mafmen should not be a quicklynch if Invis turns up scum, btw.

[LuckyOtter]

To illustrate and be clearer, this:

hi
korina is still scum

k i might stick with my reads because this sounds like straight up bussing

VOTE: Korina
after this flips scum we lynch invis

followed by

even though invis is acting quite scummy i cant help but feel im wrong after my last mistake

would mean:
A.scum!Maf + scum!Invis = Maf conveniently shifts away from his partner
B.scum!Maf + town!Invis = Maf decides not to go after an easy lynch for some reason? Maybe for towncred, but staying off a townie lynch doesn't buy that much towncred anyway, especially when the townie in question is being scummy (and Maf even says so)
C.town!Maf + town!Invis = Maf is legit questioning his Invis read
D.town!Maf + scum!Invis = Maf is legit questioning his Invis read (but shouldn't be)

If Invis flips town scenario C makes more sense to me. If he flips scum I feel a bit better about A than D but it's not a lockdown.

[LuckyOtter]

2. GuiltyLion - likely town
3. MafMen - null
4. ManateeDude - lynchbait
5. OkaPoka - scumlean
6. Oath - town
7. Invisibility - dog
8. Antihero - likely town
9. LuckyOtter - null
{Oka, mafmen, Lucky}
VOTE: okapoka

Also, you came up with this readslist without explaining any of it. And that was on page 11 and you've posted several times since then with 0 actual content.

[LuckyOtter]

@Oath: GL summed it up pretty well but I'll just add that I was following up on a thought from my reads. I was nullreading GL and wanted to explain my hangup on a mostly townread slot. Regardless of how Invis flips I'm going to have to tease apart GL and Manatee and so I'm sharing my thought process on GL.

And to answer you're question, it is entirely possible that GL is scum but I don't find it very plausible atm. In otherwords he's a townlean for me. Possible partners would be in the so-called townbloc, but I don't want to have to explore that idea unless I really have to. Occam's razor and not feeding into paranoia and whatnot.
--
OK so Invisibility showed up to defend himself a little bit, but still hasn't done a lot to explain his reads on Oka, and nothing to explain his reads on Maf or me. He's complaining that he just seems to fit into a narrative, but that's exactly how he portrays Oka (with the exception of the business with Anti). He throws Mafmen into his scumlist again without explaining why and without pursuing a vote there (this is the associative that keeps popping up for you, Invis).
--
Welcome back, Manatee.

VOTE: Invisibility

[LuckyOtter]

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.
--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--
So, if Maf is town and is hard townreading Manatee, by POE, I would have to be scum but he doesn't raise an eyebrow at me.
--
I need to revisit Maf and Invis again because Invis flipping town made me think Maf would also be town, but I'm feeling like Maf is just confirmed scum here.

[LuckyOtter]

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

[LuckyOtter]

Fun. So Maf is definitely scum and scumclaimed, but you're voting me after a POE that is fraught with flawed premises (pointing them out shortly). Makes total sense.

Actually, it does make sense if you are his partner.

[LuckyOtter]

Breaking this up into two parts.

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.

Reads, PoE, and Probability.

There has to be at least two scum in

You
Maf
Manatee
Oka

This is false. There has to be at least one scum in this group. There could be two, but that does not have to be true.

You were the only one offline in that extended period EXCEPT Manatee (who has already placed a vote on Maf).
In that period we had Manatee's vote on Maf, MafMan's vote on Oka, then Maf's vote on Anti
I think we're all confident at this point that the entire scum team cannot be GL, Anti, Oka, or myself ( it's more likely that only one of these is scum)

Within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath} there is certainly not 3 scum, but there could be two. What makes you so certain there are not 2 scum in that group and instead there

has

to be 2 scum in the other group?

If Manatee v Maf is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. If it were Oka/GL/Anti - they could have quicklynched.

You would 100% have to be apart of that scum team holding up the vote, at least one of them is confirmed town because there is NO VARIATION of a team that doesn't include you when we're looking for 3 scum in that scenario.

No problems here from your POV. From anyone's POV there is no world in which all three of us are town, so from my POV one of Maf and Manatee is scum and I'm trying to decide between the two (or if they're both scum).

If Scum vs Town (either way) - it would leave 2 more scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. Removing Anti sorryz ain't happening, gg if I'm wrong. So 2 scum in Oka, GL, Otter.
Possible teams:
Manatee or Maf/ Oka/GL
Manatee or Maf/Oka/Otter
Manatee or Maf/GL/Otter
So you're at 66% probability - same with GL and Oka, except they don't have the first scenario against them.

And Maf is at

100% probability

!

Also, removing Anti from the equation entirely with no justification is bad, especially in lylo, and especially when you're relying on possible combos to make your case. Strong case for Anti as 3rd partner here.

Maf voted Oka (for all of 30 minutes, but GL, Oka, and myself were online- this doesn't acquit anyone because Oka was the target of that vote and thus no quicklynch was possible)

The only thing this does is confirm that the scumteam is not {GL, Oka, Oath}. If that's what you're saying here I agree.

If Maf v Oka is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - and we talked about this- Anti isn't scum, the only option here is GL/Manatee/You -

again 100% chance IMO of scum in this scenario

and it's reasonable that no quicklynch occured due to your activity.

Did we talk about this? The royal we, you mean, because not everyone is sold on Anti as town. So again, flawed premise, and looks like you're protecting Anti. Excluding Anti from the equation (again, with no justification), changes the probabilities

significantly

. You're removing a factor without justification, and also ignoring other results in your findings (i.e. in this scenario GL and Manatee are also 100% scum, so you should be concerned about them as well, especially Manatee) in order to support your narrative. The important point is no, this scenario does mean I am 100% scum.

If Scum vs Town - it would leave 2 more scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - you know where I'm going here...
Possible teams:
Maf or Oka/ Manatee/GL
Maf or Oka/Manatee/You
Maf or Oka/GL/You
The same 66%.

Again, leaving out Anti changes things significantly. Also puts Manatee and GL and 66%, so this doesn't make a better case against me than Manatee who is within the group of confirmed scum from your POV. That is, if you're deciding who among {Maf, Manatee, Otter} is scum, this scenario does literally nothing to help you conclude I am more likely scum than Manatee.

[LuckyOtter]

Deux.

THEN Maf v Anti (the current vote?) - we've all been online since, but activity does seem more staggered and less easy to orchestrate a quicklynch at this point and I can't clear anyone other than my reads

--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--

Now in post #534 you acquit GL, Anti, Oka, and Myself from comprising the scum team - on quickhammer basis, which I agree with but that is largely dependent on Manatee being town, because quicklynch by scum on townMaf (since scum wouldn't quicklynch scum) would only be possible with townManatee as that 4th vote- you basically conftown Manatee and Maf but then said you needed to go back over your Maf reads??? which brings me back to scenario #1- MANATEE AND MAF AS TOWN V TOWN IS 100% OTTERSCUM

This is all kinds of terrible.
1. “you basically conftown Manatee and Maf” –

No

. Precisely the opposite. Because there was no quickhammer, the town!Maf + town!Manatee world does not exist. One of them is scum. You are grossly misrepresenting my statements to fit your narrative.
2. What this means is that the scumteam cannot be comprised

entirely

within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath}, but could (and must) be comprised of at least one (maybe two) of you + one or both of Maf/Manatee.
3. I need to go back over my Maf reads because I need to decide between Maf and Manatee. It’s really not that hard to understand unless you are forcing a narrative in which I’m scum.

The only possibility you have of not being scum is with at least one of them as scum,but you were so quick to acquit us which reads like scum eager to sheep the tone of the thread and slip up because you can't see town POV.

Again, I am eliminating the possibility that the entire scumteam is within that group. Your “slip” is entirely fabricated (see previous point). Also, what do you mean I can’t see town POV? That makes no sense here.

Now we have this terrible post:

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is practically a scumclaim

@ Maf Look at this list

Anti
GL
Oath
Oka

Otter
Manatee

- because they aren't scum right?
MafMan

IF YOU ARE TOWN you're saying the entire scum team is in Anti, GL, Oka, or me (Oath)... then why are you still alive? Who do you think is scum?

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

And again, you see this from Maf, call it a scumclaim, call maf “definitely scum,” but then revert to your flawed probabilities and slip narrative to vote me instead, presumably because you think it is not possible that Maf and Manatee are both scum with someone else. But why is that?

This is also based on the flawed premise that two of the three of us must be scum. But earlier you had Oka in this basket (your very first point in your post) as well. You were also entertaining the idea earlier that GL and Oka might be scum together, in which case there are still several possible worlds in which I am not scum. Given all of that, what makes me the better vote over Maf, who, in your own words, just scumclaimed?

[LuckyOtter]

I think we lynch Maf today and Oath tomorrow.

Anti, what's your actual stance on Maf right now?

[LuckyOtter]

Why are we basing so much on the premise that a quicklynched what have happened? Now we are assuming that first the scumteam are playing optimally and second the scumteam are all robots that coordinated this.

It's lylo, so to believe in a world in which the entire scumteam is within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka}, I have to believe that the scum saw that they were all online and active, saw they had a chance to end and win the game (since Manatee wasn't around to switch his vote), and they went, "nah let's drag this out some more." The only way I believe the scumteam is all in there is if there is a chance all three were too scared to get the ball rolling. It's not impossible but it seems highly improbable.

But yeah lets lynch maf today, whatever helps that helps. I'm not sold on an Oath lynch purely going off of scumreads tho. Her reasoning is faulty and dangerously presumptive but I don't see scum trying to gamesolve this hard.

Sure they would try to gamesolve. In a Maf+Oath scumteam, Oath has to figure out a way for her and her partner to survive past the almost inevitable Maf lynch. The next day is the endgame vote, so stakes are high. She's got to sell a story that secures a mislynch, and the more work you put into it, the more likely people will buy it.

[LuckyOtter]

Unless Oka is playing dumb I think his not thinking about daytalk aiding a quickhammer is a decent sign he's town.

[LuckyOtter]

This is me not voting anyone. Maf is scum tho.

[LuckyOtter]

Oath the short response to your responses is I know I asked you to explain your read, but I think your explanation is not good. It relies heavily on probabilities that start with flawed premises and do no better at pointing to me as scum than Maf or Manatee (I did misread one of them, but it still puts me at equal footing with the others), so your vote on me over Maf continues to confuse me. You also continue to assert that I have made some kind of slip based on my agreeing with things that have already been said. Agreeing with said things does not automatically make me scum.

From my POV, not all 3 scum are in {Oka, Oath, Anti, GL} as has been established (it seemed like there was still a question here when I first mentioned it, and Maf continues to not get it, so it felt redundant but perhaps not unuseful to support the statement). You are assuming I genuinely gave weight to a town!Maf/town!Manatee scenario when what I was doing was explaining how such a scenario could not be so. It's the twisting of my thought process into something scummy that bothers me the most about you right now.

I am going to consider your Oka case, because I have been getting the feeling lately he might be buddying me, but unless the scum are making horrible use of their daychat, after your vote on me and now on Oka with no reactions, you're looking more suspicious. Then again, given that Maf and Manatee appear not to be frequent visitors, a quicklynch probably would be difficult to coordinate anyway.
--
I might be ruling out a Oka/Oath team, though. I don't see Oath changing her vote to bus here.

[LuckyOtter]

I want to be super clear about something: I agree with Oath that we have lots of information and that it should serve the sorting process. Looking at all possible scenarios and sorting based on likelihood and what makes sense within interactions is something that is very useful if done carefully. My problem with Oath is the execution and not the process itself.

Oka being outright dismissive of the process itself is bothering me because it's a bad argument and feeds into my fear that he's buddying me.

Promise to Oath: When I get the time, I'm going to run scenarios myself and see if I can come to the same conclusions as you. At the top of my head I cannot outright exclude the possibility of town!Oka because I can imagine several plausible combos of one of maf/manatee + 2 within {GL, Anti, Oath} or both maf+manatee + one of {GL, Anti, Oath}.

If I were to preclude Anti from possibly being scum as you do, then that blows up several possible combos and does significantly increase the likelihood of Oka being scum. But I'm not comfortable just writing off Anti as town until I run through the scenarios and interactions. You eliminate factors after testing them, not before. It's like, basic science. Even if you never want to vote Anti, writing him off has significant consequences for the rest of your scenarios, so it's causing you to vote recklessly (on me, then Oka who is possibly also town).

GL writing off Anti entirely is bothering me as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it's Oath+GL+Maf and Oath and GL have been buddying Anti all game. I mean,

somebody

is getting played and I'm suspicious of the people who don't want to admit they might be getting played (because they're probably the ones doing the playing).

Anyway, we have 7 days before deadline so can we stop throwing votes around willy-nilly?

[LuckyOtter]

Now I'm annoyed and can't focus on my other work so I started working on scenarios. This is literally just POE based on the following events:
Manatee votes Maf
Anti votes Maf
Oka votes Maf
Oath votes me
Oath votes Oka

If you'd like to know which combos I eliminated at which stage and why, I'll provide that upon request instead of flooding you with a wall of all the steps.

There are 20 total combinations of 3 choices among 6 people, and I've narrowed it down to 8 possibilities including:
Maf + Manatee + Anti
Maf + Manatee + Oath
Maf + Manatee + Oka
Maf + Manatee + GL
Maf + Oath + Anti
Maf + Oath + GL
Maf + Oath + Oka
Manatee + Oka + Anti

The only scenario in which Maf isn't scum is the one where all 3 scum are sitting on town!Maf waiting for a townie to hammer. This is the dumbest scenario and will make me cry if it turns out to be the right one. So unless someone can convince me that that's not the dumbest scenario, or if there's any other scenario where Maf is town and I messed up in my PoE, that leaves Maf in every other possible combination, meaning I am 100% voting Maf today.

Manatee and Oath are both left in 4/7 combos, including one shared one. Oka, Anti, and GL appear in 2/7 combos each.

Again, I haven't reread to check associatives, but gut says Oath more likely than Manatee tomorrow.

Pedit: Well let's hope it's a Maf + Manatee + Oka team because otherwise someone in the {Anti, Oath, GL} love triangle is about to get their heart broken. Except that means Oka is literally asking us to lynch both his partners. Though, it might actually be plausible given the history of this setup, I think.

[LuckyOtter]

Effort does not equal town. Lynching anyone but maf today is insane. Checking back in tomorrow.

[LuckyOtter]

I feel like I said yesterday that I would be busy today. If not, I'm busy today.

I have been scumreading maf prior to this. Mostly because getting him to offer any reads at all is like pulling teeth.

Who exactly am I sheeping when I say you are scum and there's a good chance one of anti or gl is your partner?

I will check in tomorrow. Still have plenty of time.

[LuckyOtter]

For these combos:
Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oka/Maf

I do not see them as plausible because those people have been around consistently enough to have been able to coordinate a quicklynch after you voted me. If you want to argue that, fine, but stop telling me what I should be seeing from my own POV.

Also, "skewing the fact in probability" is exactly what you've been doing by precluding Anti as an option

from the outset, with nothing substantial to back it up

'Plausible' does not mean 'most likely,' it means 'believable,' or 'possible.' I can find one scumteam plausible but less likely than another. I also have the right

and the obligation

to weigh different options when I am uncertain about them, so while I have to consider the possibility that you are town (and it is still a possibility), that you continue to twist my words is not helping your case. Neither is your erratic voting behavior. If you are town, wouldn't someone who voted voted you

when there is a much more certain scum option present

immediately make that person shoot up in your scum ranking?

You're right about one thing, though, I really am not certain who maf's partner is.

No townie should be

. That does not equal me wanting to take a shot in the dark. So again, this feels like you're twisting my statements to look scummy.

Responding to your questions from earlier, which are fair:
Why is mafmen scum, other than probability? Let's look at his ISO:
- Defense of Manatee is based on so little information, I don't know how he could be so sure Manatee is town. I brought this up, and Maf never really adequately answered this. This feels like scum trying to get some town cred should manatee get mislynched. Then again, both Oka and I have seen a townie hard defend someone for no reason, and that person turned out to be scum. I really doubt that that's happening again, but it's not impossibile.
- He has been consistently hesitant to provide scumreads. The first ones he provides are from PoE and he doesn't seem to ever try to do much sorting from there. He, and I think I'm not exaggerating here, does literally nothing in the way of poking and prodding others. He just responds to questions and occasionally scumreads people with no justification
- D2 he says Invisibility is acting scummy but doesn't vote him. This could very easily be scum trying to fan the flames while not having to join the wagon.
- The scumread and vote on Anti also comes with no justification
- Hard townreads me then flips on me with no justification
This is scum.

How do I feel about Manatee? Great question, and I don't know. Either Maf was trying to protect him earlier or just WKing him. Manatee as scum would help explain why no quicklynches have happened. If Mafmen has been unhelpful, Manatee has been less helpful. You want to get one someone's case about doing the bare minimum, why are you looking at me?

What about Oka's l-1 vote? With Maf as scum it doesn't mean much to me, to be honest. Doesn't even make Oka less likely to be his partner. I think scum are probably happy to bus Maf as long as they can secure the mislynch tomorrow.

Now, I still need to check associatives to see which scumteams I generated actually make sense. I can't do that right now but I will when I have a moment. I am in the middle of moving houses right now so forgive me if my top priority right now isn't posting walls of text. I literally painted half of a house yesterday and should be packing exactly right this second.

In the meantime, Oath, is there gameplay other than D3 activities that points to Oka as scum for you? Unless I've missed it (which is possible as I haven't had time to reread carefully), I haven't seen a good case from anyone against Oka based on overall gameplay.

[LuckyOtter]

Off the top of my head until I check associatives, current guess is Maf+Oath+ one of Anti/GL/Manatee.

If Oath is town, next guess is Maf+Manatee+Oka, meaning you're playing some kind of bussing/distancing gambit.

[LuckyOtter]

I'm about to drop two posts in which I say something different at the end than what I started with. You're going to see me working through the problem. Oath might call this inconsistency, I call it transparency, which is something half the players here aren't giving you, and something that Oath is claiming I'm not giving you. So here's the unedited version of what I've been sorting out this morning:

I've explained why Maf over Manatee. Unless the team is Anti+Oka+Manatee, which I highly doubt, it has to be Maf. I still have plausible scenarios in which Manatee is town, but not Maf.

Some of those things I read as scummy, are sometimes not scummy. That's just the nature of the game. I can acknowledge that a thing I find scummy has been shown to be not scummy elsewhere (should someone decide to point that out for me) and still say that

probably

it's legit scummy here. Now, if I had said "Maf did a thing and that thing might be scummy but it might not, I dunno," that would be a cause for concern.

BTW, Don't accuse me of not playing the game when I am at least here. I gave you my probable scumteams and that took a good amount of time to put together. If I post the whole thing nobody is going to read it. I honestly don't think anybody is even reading our conversation besides the two of us.

On mechanics:
I am fully aware of the game mechanics and the fact that we are in lylo, which is why I want to lynch the person I am confident is scum and guarantee we get another day with another option eliminated. I have explained that I am not nearly as confident in Oka as scum as you seem to think I should be, primarily because I am afraid you are scum pushing for a mislynch and a win here. One of you two is scum, but likely not both, and we know how I feel about you.

On Oka:
I am annoyed at his hasty vote. I can believe that he thought Maf was lockscum and that discussion would only lead us to confusion and a mislynch. I agree with you that an Anti+Oka team doesn't make sense given Anti's unvote. As a reminder, here are the scenarios left for me (also remembering that I've eliminated a Oath+Oka team):

Maf + Manatee + Anti
Maf + Manatee + Oath
Maf + Manatee + Oka
Maf + Manatee + GL
Maf + Oath + Anti
Maf + Oath + GL

Oka only makes sense as scum if he's running a bussing gambit, which he very well could be, but even so I would want to lynch Manatee before Oka. So I am not voting Oka today. I will be voting Maf.

@ GL, hold your horses, I'll vote him when I'm ready for the day to be done. Nobody is really saying much anymore except me and Oath, and I'm worried Oath is hard pushing an agenda for tomorrow, so I wanted to sort some things out before putting Maf at L-1. Why it’s suspicious for Oka to put Maf at L-1 and for me not to put him at L-1, and why you're calling me out for not voting when you aren't either is beyond me. What's your point?

[LuckyOtter]

Deux.

The question for tomorrow essentially comes down to Oath vs. Manatee for me. A Maf+Oath team makes perfect sense to me, so let's consider the Maf+Manatee possibility because if Oath is town Manatee would have to be scum.

I have nothing new to say about Maf's defense of Manatee. It's NAI for Manatee. Once Manatee comes back, he says Maf is trying to pocket him and then votes Maf. Being suspicious of Maf is reasonable and the right town response. I'm not sure about the vote, though. There are two wagons at that time, Oka and Invis, and Manatee doesn't weigh in on either. Just says he thinks Maf is pocketing him and puts his vote there.

Manatee's first serious vote is on me. It's a gutread with no justification. Up until that point, most of my attention was directed to him and Maf, so this would make sense from scum!Manatee.

Manatee is off the Korina lynch, and I wouldn't expect to see all 3 scum on it, so a Maf+Manatee team checks out. On that note, I'm willing to rule out a Maf/Oath/Anti team, so I'm down to 5 possibilities now.

Manatee stays off the Invis lynch, as I mentioned before because he parked his vote on Maf. He then votes Maf right off the bat D3 with no additional reasoning or discussion. This is a highly reckless move. I honestly don't believe town!Manatee does this unless he really just doesn't give a shit about the game at all, but if that were the case why would he have come back at all?

So yes, a Maf+Manatee team is plausible and frankly rather likely. Given that these are the possibilities I'm left with:

Maf + Manatee + Anti
Maf + Manatee + Oath
Maf + Manatee + Oka
Maf + Manatee + GL
Maf + Oath + GL

And I'm just now realizing that the last possibility doesn't make sense anymore because those three should have been able to get Oka lynched by now. Meaning I'm left with Maf+Manatee+I don't care anymore.

Meaning I am willing to lynch either Maf or Manatee today, but not Oka. Take your pick.

[LuckyOtter]

With that, VOTE: Mafmen unless someone wants to convince me to move to Manatee.

[LuckyOtter]

What is there to respond to? Your responses do nothing to clear you. You've just repeated things you've said before that don't clear you. The only new thing there is your justification for voting me, but even there, you're just relying on your poor townread of Manatee (I get that you have a meta reason for TRing him and I'm saying that reason is BS) to vote me instead. You've still done no sorting.

Your strategy has been to POE everything based on everybody else's investigative work, is that it? Other than calling an argument fake, you've done no visible sorting.

Ask me a question and I'll give you an answer, how about that?

[LuckyOtter]

If it makes you feel better, I'll UNVOTE: on the condition that you seriously consider a maf+manatee team.

[LuckyOtter]

Manatee, just humor us. Who do you see as likely Maf partners?

[LuckyOtter]

GL and Anti, questions for you:

1. How do you feel about voting Manatee?
2. Can you explain to me why you are so sure Oath is town and not scum pushing a mislynch here?
3. Can you explain to me what you think Oka's endgame strategy is? (Oath, I'd like you to answer that one as well)

What I see as a very real possibility is that Oath is in a scumteam with the most lynchbaity players left, and has to work super hard to win the game right now. Especially given that one of them is never around to be able to pull off a quicklynch. Even if you don't believe this is the most likely scenario, I want you to explain to me how this could not be a plausible one.

I am not sold on the scum!Oath/town!Oka scenario, but if it's wrong I need help seeing why.

Even if Oka is scum, I need to know why a Maf+Manatee team is impossible. Right now, that's the only possibility I see, unless I screwed up my PoE somewhere, so I don't feel comfortable voting outside of that pair.

[LuckyOtter]

ok back

what's happening here...?

Scum are lurking in the swamp, Oath is probably nursing a hangover rn, and everyone is paranoid and feels terrible, so pretty much a normal day here in Tampa.

[LuckyOtter]

1. I don't see Manatee as a PL. His voting Maf right off the bat in lylo is a super scummy move, no?

[LuckyOtter]

Why as town would he feel comfortable dropping a vote right off the bat in lylo on someone he is voting just because he suspects he's being pocketed? That's literally the only reason he has ever given for voting Maf. It wasn't even with that much conviction:

I can see MM TRing me for a pocket. It has worked before when I was town.

VOTE: MM

[LuckyOtter]

Here's a game that Oka and I played with town!Manatee that ended not long ago: viewtopic.php?f=51&t=76645
His ISO: viewtopic.php?t=76645&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Posting style is similar, but in that game he at least

tried

. He gave scumreads, made a case against someone, was generally paying attention. So yeah, I assume at least a little technical competence on his part.

[LuckyOtter]

And I would actually like you to look at that game and tell me you still think he's totally incompetent, or if there's another way you can explain his terrible vote on Maf.

Anyone else still wanting to think Manatee is town should respond to this, too.

[LuckyOtter]

like how does Otter go from this:

A.scum!Maf + scum!Invis = Maf conveniently shifts away from his partner
B.scum!Maf + town!Invis = Maf decides not to go after an easy lynch for some reason? Maybe for towncred, but staying off a townie lynch doesn't buy that much towncred anyway, especially when the townie in question is being scummy (and Maf even says so)
C.town!Maf + town!Invis = Maf is legit questioning his Invis read
D.town!Maf + scum!Invis = Maf is legit questioning his Invis read (but shouldn't be)

If Invis flips town scenario C makes more sense to me. If he flips scum I feel a bit better about A than D but it's not a lockdown.

to "lynching anyone other than Maf today is insane"

Nice job taking those things out of context. How do I go from this quote to the second? I don't know, was there any major game-changing event that happened between those two things? Come on, man.

[LuckyOtter]

GL, how about the one where maf becomes confirmed scum d3, thus informing me my early read was off?

Also, scenario C making more sense does not mean scenario B is impossible. Like, do you never change your reads based on new info?

Did you read anything that led me to the second statement you quoted there?

[LuckyOtter]

I am old, someone tell me what wim means

[LuckyOtter]

The main gripe against oka is his hasty l-1 vote, yes? Because it didn't allow for discussion and made a mislynch possible? Same could be said of anyone else's vote prior to that. I mean, Manatee's D3 vote is worse imo because literally 0 discussion had taken place yet (including from himself). Oath voted me on a poor PoE before letting me defend myself or letting anyone else weigh in, then later decides I'm actually not a good choice today. I'm not defending Oka's vote, just saying it's just as bad as other votes that have happened today.

Not going to be convinced on Oka, not today anyway. My move is happening in the next couple of days so I won't be able to do much more of substance between now and deadline, and I don't know what more I can do anyway until we get some flips. I'm still worried that Oath is pushing an oka mislynch, so while I have the chance I'm going to

VOTE: mafmen

Still willing to switch to manatee.

[LuckyOtter]

Of course I realize those are not l-1 votes, but at lylo any misvote by town is the potential game-ender. Don't act like you don't realize this.

I have explained that I no longer see any scenario where either maf or manatee can be town. Oka might be scum, but equally and actually more likely, you are scum pushing a mislynch based on a hasty vote on oka's part. Maf and manatee are sure bets for me, oka is not. I've laid out my scumteams and maf and manatee are in all of them, so don't act so surprised that I want maf over oka. Can't be any clearer on this.

[LuckyOtter]

Today yes. Tomorrow I want the other. But I will reevaluate everything because someone is going to have to vote outside of their comfort zone and it may very well have to be me.

I am going to sleep now.

[LuckyOtter]

More Tampa facts please

[LuckyOtter]

Oka I love you but ffs man. I might have to decide if you're scum today and this isn't helping. If you're town, you just handed Oath a reason to get you mislynched.

I mean, I'm pretty sure manatee is the right move but I still want to go over my poe again. I don't think there's any combo of the rest of you that makes sense.

[LuckyOtter]

There's also an outside chance GL is scum using oath to get oka mislynched. Need to mull that one over, but it doesn't really matter. One is using the other.

Or oka is just scum going for the hard bus strategy. Either way, I'm almost certainly voting manatee today.

[LuckyOtter]

Oath either the end of day theatrics were sincere or you're a masterful manipulator. If you're town I need you to consider the very real possibility that oka is reckless town and GL is poised scum pocketing you before you lay down a vote.

[LuckyOtter]

What in the fuck just happened

[LuckyOtter]

Oka you broke my heart. I thought we were town soulmates

[LuckyOtter]

Well done. I had ruled out a oath/oka team.

What was the plan had oka been lynched yesterday instead of maf? Try to go for me or manatee?

[LuckyOtter]

</3

[LuckyOtter]

GL I think we were equally paranoid of each other basically the whole game. XD

To be fair the only reason I was really able to start scumreading Oath was her vote on me.

[LuckyOtter]

I did, too. Sorry to hear that anti.

[LuckyOtter]

Shout out to Khan. Thanks for being a great mod. The flavor was nice, I learned a lot about Tampa XD