Micro 813 - Game Over

[Oath]

im at a place called vertigo

I went to a club called Vertigo once, it was...disorienting

[Oath]

i love Land O'Lakes cheese

I didn't know they made cheese!!!

VOTE: Mafmen

[Oath]

also I'm gonna call Korina and maybe Invisibility my page 1 townreads

...why tho?

[Oath]

mmkay
... VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Oath]

@GuiltyLion...I said none of that.

My vote has nothing to do with your having early reads. It's your unwillingness to clarify or substantiate them with that "why not?"... I'm not into it. It's unhelpful and if a vote will get you and anyone else talking I'm here for it.

[Oath]

im still not seeing the case against me
im sure manatee isnt scum but w/e
VOTE: Antihero
until i get an explanation my vote is placed here

Why are you so sure?

[Oath]

yeah... I'm not getting this whole scum vibe thing from ManateeDude. If Manatee is scummy for the call on the wagon and then jumping ship to me, I would say that Invisibility warrants the same amount of pressure. What really worries me about this is that it seems to have gone overlooked. Invisibility initially voted BlackStar and then placed a vote on me by saying "for cheese!". What I find weird about this is that the vote came AFTER Manatee switched to me for joining the wagon. Invisibility saw my vote- posted a response(that did not contain a vote against me) and then 11 minutes later (4 minutes after Manatee) switched their vote to me. It seemed more opportunistic (played off jokingly) than anything and the fact that no one else seems to be pushing it makes me feel uneasy. Then when Manatee starts coming under pressure she switched to him under "I can see the scum reads", but nothing substantial.

ok so
people say that wagons forming to easily can be indicative of lynchbait i think this is the case
i prefer a Korina wagon right now VOTE: Korina

...and this is just confusing, plus she's since voted Blackstar once again only after pressed about her vote by Lucky Otter with no reasoning.

My vote would take them down to L-1.
Are we all sure that Manatee is scum here?

This from Korina, I really didn't like because at the time it was page 2 and either you're pushing them to L-1 or you're not. The idea of "we all" sort of lessens the accountability and is easy to back out of explanation wise.

Mafman.. I don't know, it really seems like he probably had a gut read on Manatee and you can't really support those. I feel like it was easy to tear apart and make look worse than it actually is. Meanwhile I'm leaning towards GuiltyLion and LuckyOtter as town, but pretty uneasy about Korina and Invisibility and what do I see? Korina's initial rvs still parked on Mafman who's sitting at L-2, given her reaction to putting Manatee at L-1 I can't fathom a world where she's not aware of where her vote is so I am assuming (and correct me if I'm wrong, Korina...) your RVS is now an actual vote?

VOTE: Korina

[Oath]

OATH I'M A GUY

My apologies. I meant no harm <3

[Oath]

any questions for me about the game so far? I find it better for me to digest the information/catchup if I can interact with it.

also is it me or is invisibility too scummy to be scum.

I was having a similar delimma, but ultimately feel like Korina's lynch would help me determine that.

Also... sorry Korina. <3

[Oath]

I keep reading this thread over and over and the two things that keep popping up are Invisibility and Korina for me. Something feels too easy about MafMan and Manatee. Almost like there is no salvation for them.

okay so last night i realized that korina was basically on the manatee wagon which means i can vote him yay!
VOTE: Korina

UGH. I wanna say you're too scummily care free to actually be scum and then you provide this lame explanation before joining another wagon UGH!!!

I'm VT.

Putting me at L-2 is effectively L-1 because I will self-hammer regardless of alignment btw.

Anyways, I'll reply to posts in a minute.

...seriously? The only thing worse than self-hammering is the threat of self hammering. Then for you to have been put at L-1 and not do it just feels weird. Meta aside it's ridiculous because many people have survived L-1. It's not some automatic death sentence. Even with the claim.

it probably at least means Korina and Blackstar-Oka aren't scum together I guess

It really doesn't. It concerns me how quickly you wanted to jump off that wagon- while the pressure was at peak to test that threat. Posts #180-#188 feel like scum interaction to fake a town-tell. I don't like it, but I liked GuiltyLion before the last page :/

It was just less than 2 hours and you were immediate on acquiting Blackstar/ Korina scum team, but specifically Korina. Without consideration that Korina could be scum with someone other than Blackstar... which I might understand if you found Blackstar much scummier than Korina but then you placed your vote on MafMen? I'm confused.

Why isn't it possible Korina is scum and has another partner? My reads are Korina/Invis scum.

[Oath]

actually you know

I'm not scum and

I strongly doubt all three scum were on the wagon

so extremely good chance of a scum in LuckyOtter or Manatee

if MafMen is town then I'd say Manatee is almost definite scum

, the random comment in 189 on his associative with Maf while ignoring everything else going on in the game rubs me the wrong way

I believe in this.

Korina - 5 - Oath, Invisibility, Antihero, OkaPoka, MafMen
MafMen - 2 - LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion
Invisibility - 1 - Korina
LuckyOtter - 1 - ManateeDude

Korina flipping town makes me certain Invisibility is scum. I'm also more confident that one of Manatee and Maf is scum. This, plus the fact that today it's early wagon on Oka with Invis and Mafman feels like a strong scum effort given that Oka is actually participating. I'm thinking the team of Invis/Maf/GL is more likely than Invis/Maf/Otter...

Anti seems more town than anyone on this thread. I don't see Oka as scum and post #284 from Anti made me literally scream out "BRILLIANT". I also don't see an Oka lynch as helpful. I'm set on Maf or Invis today. Invis is practically confirmed scum to me, but I think a MafMan flip as scum solidifies Oka and Manatee town and a town flip pretty much does the opposite.

Again... there's no world where Invis isn't scum.

VOTE: Invisibility

[Oath]

@oath could u explain why mafmen scum flip solidifies manatee as town and vice versa?

but yeah as guilty said all roads lead back to invis scum fmpov as well

Simple: I don't think the exchanges between Maf and Manatee are scum vs scum. Though my gut tells me there is one in there with scummy motivation. At first I thought they could both be town, but with the Korina flip and Maf jumping on that wagon I'm strongly leaning towards Maf being the scum in that situation. That being said, I still prefer to lynch Invisibility today because I'm certain he's scum and we're already down 1.

I would acquit you for the simple fact that You, Maf, and Invis were on Korina's lynch- I honestly don't believe the entire team would be, now that's more speculation based but given that at the start of this day there was a wagon on YOU with Invis and Maf (who had no solid reasoning) I'm more certain that you're not scum with them.

[Oath]

Yeah... Invis, you scum. You came in to say hi? Only after it was pointed out by GL that you were posting elsewhere on site? Nah.

[Oath]

worst case scenario imo is scum!antihero because he can argue his way out of being scum and probably get us to lynch anyone else while we are at it lol

i'd say you're less "just stating possibilities" and more "actively trying to sew paranoia"

^Okay this struck a cord with me because I didn't think Oka's statement was necessary either. Unnecessary is NAI though.

Anti is still town. Town town, towny town and it's going to be the thing that saves us.

hell im voting oka rn

why is Oka more likely to be scum than Invisibility

^This is why I town read Oka. Invis and Maf wagon early on with Maf throwing away their scum read on Invis entirely. It's also why I think Invis is the best lynch choice because they are the most likely to flip scum here- every logical scenario I run based on the votes has scum Invisibility with MafMan or Manatee.

The third teammate is where I'm stumped. I thought it was between GL and Otter (leaning hard towards GL being the scum) at one point because I wasn't thrilled with their interaction here:
viewtopic.php?p=10309517#p10309517
and here
viewtopic.php?p=10309531#p10309531

but now I'm thinking they'd both have to be scum AND Invisibility would have to be town for that to make sense re-reading
Plus GL's line of questioning and this breakdown:

Spoiler: here

I'd like to think on my best day I could/would go 1v1 against Anti

haven't wanted to do that this game though because I've basically agreed with pretty much everything he's said. not that I'm disagreeing much with Oka either, seems like the two main points are:
1) Oka thinks Anti is faking annoyance with Invisibility
2) Anti thinks Oka is spreading needless paranoia about his slot
I disagree with 1) but I don't think it's necessarily scummy for Oka to feel that way. Agree with 2) but also don't think that's necessarily scummy.

Oka it does seem weird that you're saying it's dependent on Invis flipping scum - if Invisibility was town would that make Anti's frustration somehow less fake?

this kinda feels like a TvT to me though still without a confident read on Manatee/Otter it's hard to be sure about Oka

The most endearing thing about this is that putting pressure on Oka here would have been easy for GL and he didn't. That's town baby.

PoE


Invisibility - SCUM
MafMen - scum
ManateeDude - scummy, but innocent until proven guilty

BlackStar

OkaPoka - innocent until proven guilty; possible scum if Maf is town (highly unlikely)
LuckyOtter - innocent until proven guilty ; possible scum if Invisibility is town AND GL is scum (THE MOST UNLIKELY - also, game over because we won't even get that far)
GuiltyLion - towny
Antihero - TOWN

[Oath]

@MOD : HAPPY BIRTHDAY

[Oath]

All this to say that I somewhat question how genuine your reads are.

I can see a world in which you are scum keeping me as a lynch option open should the opportunity arise. But I can also see townie with genuine suspicion and paranoia and that resonates more with me right now.

Responding to some other things momentarily.

I gotta be honest. I don't particularly like this from Otter. Everything else seemed great up until here, but then I try to imagine what motivation you could have for casting doubt onto GL when you've already agreed that you two share a similar writing style and tone? It seems like you're trying to cast doubt on GL subtley and then backtracking on it. Real talk ? Seems like you're worried about what happens after the Invisibility flip since GL seems to be the only one that really has you as an option in the back of their mind still. I ISO'd GL and he's consistently left room for Otter to be partners with Invis, so it's not like a spur of the moment thing like this Otter shade seems? iF that makes sense? Do you genuinely think that GuiltyLion could be scum and if so who with?

P-edit: I'm actively pushing your lynch. My MAIN concern is the wagoning. It's convenient- no content/explanation even when asked.
Day 1 you hopped onto my wagon, and it seemed like an after thought because you had posted in thread after me WITHOUT voting me and then once Manatee placed a vote on me you just joined it.
Ex: Timeline:
Manatee comments, votes Mafman and calls for wagon
I (Oath) comment, vote(s) Mafman
You (Invisibility) comment(s) "they make little snack rectangles of dairy goodness that are very delicious" (in response to me being unaware that Land O Lakes made cheese) - this is the suspicious part to me, NO VOTE (xx:27 timestamp)
Manatee calls out me for wagoning, Votes Oath (me) - (xx:34)
Then you (Invisibility) vote me and say "For cheese!" which seems weird, like a way to joke off an actual vote because if it were a joke about the cheese why was there an 11 minute gap between those posts? And 4 minutes after Manatee's vote? (xx:38)

Then you hop on to Manatee's wagon later in the day after Gl and BlackStar/Oka slot.

You did have a stand alone vote on Korina at one point, then switched to another stand alone vote on BlackStar. It just seems like when Korina's wagon picked up steam you found a reason to hop back on saying "
okay so last night i realized that korina was basically on the manatee wagon which means i can vote him yay!"

Obviously Korina flipped town and you began the day with an Oka vote, now this is circumstantial, but MafMan followed that lead and I was already thinking you guys were possible scum partners and both of you were on the Korina wagon for what I felt were weak reasons so this is the second wagon and a strong effort at the start of a new day. Yeah, that's more of a team read and I would say if Maf is town and Manatee is town, I'm less confident that Invisibility is scum but we don't really have time to test both those theories and you're the common denominator- most likely to flip scum.

I would say you're only redeeming quality is that I can't see how this style of play benefits you as town or scum, but wrestling with the idea of possibly mislynching and having you around in lylo scares the crap out of me. The only other person I would be willing to lynch today is MafMan, but I'm just a bit less confident there.

Honestly, Invisibility do you think you're a liability or an asset right now? Because if you are town, I'm not even sure keeping you around will yield successful results. I am very confident, however, that GL and Anti have a hold on this game that will ultimately win it for us.

[Oath]

So do you have anything to say in regards to the wagoning? You seemed to be unsure why you were being scum read and I've laid out my perspective at least.

[Oath]

that's why i'm reading over the game
i find your reason pretty weak though. what about me changing my vote 11 minutes after the first vote makes me scum? the reason you laid out in the first post where you talked about SRing me you said it was opportunistic but like i wasnt trying to get you lynched. it was to hurry the game out of RVS.

It wasn't 11 minutes after the first vote, it was 11 minutes after you replied to me initially (having seen my vote on MafMan) and you didn't say anything even referencing me joining a wagon on MafMan, but then Manatee votes me and you joined him? I feel like given that you saw my vote first, you could have and would have voted me BEFORE Manatee came in, but the opposite happened within 4 minutes of Manatee's vote. It seems odd, especially since when this was mentioned your activity declined substantially and you weren't giving us insight like the last sentence above which could have helped. But now you've since joined more wagons- ultimately the one on a townie lynch and you seemed to push your way on to that. With the combination of today's initial wagon, which also means Maf isn't voting you-I'm worried.

You don't think GL has reasoning for your lynch?
@GL- why are you voting for Invisibility again?

[Oath]

okay sorry that generally don't say everything i'm thinking
also the thing about voting before manatee makes absolutely no sense about why it makes me scum

woof i got pedited

It feels like you waited until he voted to place your vote.

[Oath]

i never intended to vote you before Manatee voted

now that i think about it that response is kind of touchy but you didnt push manatee so that doesnt really make sense as a scum thing

That's literally the part that I found scummy..Manatee voted for me on the basis of wagoning. You're basically saying you decided to vote me after Manatee voted and that's the definition of wagoning. Now you're saying you never intended for the wagon to lead to my lynch and it was to move us out of RVS, but this is the first time all game you've shared that even though I've stated MY reasoning more than once. Why now?

[Oath]

My scumread on Maf was largely related to Invis and now that we known Invis is town, I'm leaning town on Maf. I was convinced though that Maf vs Manatee was SvT, but if Maf is town that makes Manatee scum- unfortunately that's all PoE and I don't really have a recent read on Manatee, like ... at all. I initially thought he came off looking better than MafMan, but again largely due to the fact that Maf had been more active and I was suspicious of them avoiding voting Invis when I thought Invis was scum.

My first inclination with Invis town is to go with my gut and say Maf is town. The two people I thought would be most likely scum in this scenario are Manatee and Oka.
My nightmare in the situation is that the scenario I thought was least likely is likely and the scum team is Manatee/GL/ Otter

P-edit: ...so Oka has a sr on Anti too? In a world where Oka and Manatee are scum- would they be so bold as to try to break the hardest town read in the game, maybe especially given that Manatee scumread Anti but votes for MafMan. :/

@Manatee: what's your read on Oka? What about Otter?

[Oath]

@Oka


You and Manatee are my biggest scum reads after that flip, but the third? Not sure. I have a hard time processing Otter as scum unless GL is scum too.

So
Oka/Manatee/ ???
GL/Otter/ ???

Maf - maybe the third on either team, but I can't really place him.
Anti - no way

My gut is saying Oka/Manatee/GL is the only scenario that works- but my head is saying there's no way I'm voting for GL today so it's you or Manatee.

And my mind went full circle.

[Oath]

why would GL need to be scum if otter is....?

I can only see Otter as scum if I'm correct and the earlier interaction here:
viewtopic.php?p=10309517#p10309517
and here
viewtopic.php?p=10309531#p10309531

Is scum and scum. So Otter's alignment as scum depends on GL being scum imo because I have no other reason to find Otter scummy aside from that one part of post #410 I didn't particularly like, but even then GL defended it. GL could be scum independent of Otter though and I think that's more likely.

P-edit: I ignored Oka because of the immediate votes from Maf and Invis, but with Invis being town and Maf being probtown I'm finding Oka/Manatee/GL much more likely , I don't have real scumreads on Oka and Manatee besides PoE though so I'm really interested in Manatee making his way back to the thread to answer my questions.

[Oath]

Sorry link fail
viewtopic.php?p=10309517#p10309517
and
viewtopic.php?p=10309531#p10309531
aka Post #93-95

[Oath]

You didnt, just you would know in general

Reads on Oka and Otter since you're around now

[Oath]

like since Anti/Oath/Oka/myself have all been around, either Otter is confirmed scum to you or Manatee

See, but this fits in with my worst case scenario that it's Manatee/GL/Otter scum team and Otter just isn't active right now

Lone votes on
MafMan
Oka (at one point)
And now..
Anti

Manatee is since shown his head. Otter is the only one offline which to me is a clear signal that Maf/Man has scum and Otter is as well.

Otter is almost confirmed scum to me here. My gut tells me Otter is the reason they're staying at lone votes. Plus we only have to lynch 2 scum to win this which is really in our favor. I never have to wonder about Anti or GL because even if they are the 3rd scum in some far off land we only need 2.

So who's left
MafMan
Manatee
Otter
Oka

-At least two of these are scum.



If Maf is scum, Manatee town- Oka???
Maf/Otter/??? scum team

If Manatee is scum, Maf town
Manatee/Otter/???
Manatee/Oka/???

Which is again why I need those reads, Manatee

P-edit: @ Anti, I think the idea that GL is getting at is that we've been active in very close proximity therefore would have easily pulled it off by now. Which in that case carries the weight that we three cannot be scum together at the very least- and that much I can agree with. The only reason I exclude Oka is because Maf placed a vote on Oka that stayed lone as well.

[Oath]

what is with this idea that mafmen and manatee can't be on the same team?

My reads have always been SvT on MafvManatee and my Maf scumread had more to do with the wagons that he and Invis were on together. Invis flipping green sort of pushed me away from Mafscum because I don't see it without Invis.

I can't speak for anyone else.

[Oath]

Town defend scum, scum defend town, scum defend scum, town defend town.

NAI.

It's between you, Manatee, or Otter for me today- there isn't enough there for me to be CERTAIN Maf is gonna flip red and we don't have anything left. Is it possible? Sure. Do I feel like risking it when there are better options? No. Especially not until I hear from Manatee (and Otter) who was online and then left again?

[Oath]

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.

Reads, PoE, and Probability.

There has to be at least two scum in

You
Maf
Manatee
Oka

You were the only one offline in that extended period EXCEPT Manatee (who has already placed a vote on Maf).
In that period we had Manatee's vote on Maf, MafMan's vote on Oka, then Maf's vote on Anti
I think we're all confident at this point that the entire scum team cannot be GL, Anti, Oka, or myself ( it's more likely that only one of these is scum)


If Manatee v Maf is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. If it were Oka/GL/Anti - they could have quicklynched.

You would 100% have to be apart of that scum team holding up the vote, at least one of them is confirmed town because there is NO VARIATION of a team that doesn't include you when we're looking for 3 scum in that scenario.

If Scum vs Town (either way) - it would leave 2 more scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. Removing Anti sorryz ain't happening, gg if I'm wrong. So 2 scum in Oka, GL, Otter.
Possible teams:
Manatee or Maf/ Oka/GL
Manatee or Maf/Oka/Otter
Manatee or Maf/GL/Otter
So you're at 66% probability - same with GL and Oka, except they don't have the first scenario against them.


Maf voted Oka (for all of 30 minutes, but GL, Oka, and myself were online- this doesn't acquit anyone because Oka was the target of that vote and thus no quicklynch was possible)

If Maf v Oka is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - and we talked about this- Anti isn't scum, the only option here is GL/Manatee/You -

again 100% chance IMO of scum in this scenario

and it's reasonable that no quicklynch occured due to your activity.
If Scum vs Town - it would leave 2 more scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - you know where I'm going here...
Possible teams:
Maf or Oka/ Manatee/GL
Maf or Oka/Manatee/You
Maf or Oka/GL/You
The same 66%.

THEN Maf v Anti (the current vote?) - we've all been online since, but activity does seem more staggered and less easy to orchestrate a quicklynch at this point and I can't clear anyone other than my reads

--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--

Now in post #534 you acquit GL, Anti, Oka, and Myself from comprising the scum team - on quickhammer basis, which I agree with but that is largely dependent on Manatee being town, because quicklynch by scum on townMaf (since scum wouldn't quicklynch scum) would only be possible with townManatee as that 4th vote- you basically conftown Manatee and Maf but then said you needed to go back over your Maf reads??? which brings me back to scenario #1- MANATEE AND MAF AS TOWN V TOWN IS 100% OTTERSCUM

The only possibility you have of not being scum is with at least one of them as scum,but you were so quick to acquit us which reads like scum eager to sheep the tone of the thread and slip up because you can't see town POV.

Now we have this terrible post:

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is practically a scumclaim

@ Maf Look at this list

Anti
GL
Oath
Oka

Otter
Manatee

- because they aren't scum right?
MafMan

IF YOU ARE TOWN you're saying the entire scum team is in Anti, GL, Oka, or me (Oath)... then why are you still alive? Who do you think is scum?

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

[Oath]

Breaking this up into two parts.

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.

Reads, PoE, and Probability.

There has to be at least two scum in

You
Maf
Manatee
Oka

This is false. There has to be at least one scum in this group. There could be two, but that does not have to be true.

Not false. PERSPECTIVE. That's the exact thing you're missing. I KNOW IM TOWN. You don't have to know that. I do.
So if there is only one scum in that group these are the only possible teams:

Manatee/GL/Anti
Maf/GL/Anti
Oka/GL/Anti - this is actually not possible as an entire scum team because that would make Man/Maf T/T. Back to the quicklynch thing.
You/GL/Anti

And you may not like my Anti read, but I have literally no reason to think Anti is scum- what you'd like if for me to now double back on reads and consider Anti and option and you're going a round about way of insisting upon that.

You were the only one offline in that extended period EXCEPT Manatee (who has already placed a vote on Maf).
In that period we had Manatee's vote on Maf, MafMan's vote on Oka, then Maf's vote on Anti
I think we're all confident at this point that the entire scum team cannot be GL, Anti, Oka, or myself ( it's more likely that only one of these is scum)

Within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath} there is certainly not 3 scum, but there could be two. What makes you so certain there are not 2 scum in that group and instead there

has

to be 2 scum in the other group?

All 3 of those teams with only 1 member of aforemention list of : You, Maf, Manatee, or Oka consistently leaves GL/Anti as the other 2/3 of that scum team. No way. YOU don't even believe that, but we'll get to that later.

Here, again, you're missing the key difference. Within You, Maf, Manatee, and Oka- AT LEAST 2 scum. Within GL, Anti, Oka - There could be 2 scum, largely dependent on Oka being scum, but it's unlikely
I never said there weren't 2 scum here- I just said it's more likely that it's only one which I believe. Notice that Oka is on both lists.

The problem is with the thought process- to acquit us as a team, you had to believe that a quicklynch had ANY chance of happening or else the reaction isn't genuine. Which means for a moment at least you thought of Manatee and Maf as both town - then decided oops nvm. It's always been one of Manatee and Maf as scum- the ONLY reason the idea of the quicklynch possibility was introduced is because GuiltyLion was speaking to MafMan, from Maf's impossible perspective. YOU GAVE IT ACTUAL WEIGHT. Anti came in a denounced it carrying weight immediately, but that's because they have a genuine perspective. It's probably the best unintentional bait I've seen someone lay down and actually have another person pick up.

tldr; a quicklynch was never possible- therefore acquitting us as a team was sheeping reads that don't align with townOtter pov - it actually makes no difference and was fluff, unnecessary unless to not actually contribute.

If Scum vs Town (either way) - it would leave 2 more scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. Removing Anti sorryz ain't happening, gg if I'm wrong. So 2 scum in Oka, GL, Otter.
Possible teams:
Manatee or Maf/ Oka/GL
Manatee or Maf/Oka/Otter
Manatee or Maf/GL/Otter
So you're at 66% probability - same with GL and Oka, except they don't have the first scenario against them.

And Maf is at

100% probability

!

Also, removing Anti from the equation entirely with no justification is bad, especially in lylo, and especially when you're relying on possible combos to make your case. Strong case for Anti as 3rd partner here.

Neither Maf or Manatee is at 100%probability. What are you talking about? In SvT with Manatee or Maf- it's 50% either way. They have the exact same probability of being scum.
So just to be clear you think the scumteam is Maf, Anti, and myself? So you would agree that GL/Anti are not 2/3rds of any scum team. Yet you acquit GL? Which is important to me because I've maintain that you're scum if GL is, unfortunately GL won't be getting my vote at any point. I've said it before, if GL or Anti are scum it's irrelevant in voting because we only need to lynch two scum to win. So I'm comfortable pegging the team and lynching the other 2/3rds given GL/Anti together is close to impossible imo.

Maf voted Oka (for all of 30 minutes, but GL, Oka, and myself were online- this doesn't acquit anyone because Oka was the target of that vote and thus no quicklynch was possible)

The only thing this does is confirm that the scumteam is not {GL, Oka, Oath}. If that's what you're saying here I agree.

That was exactly what I was saying... what else could I have meant?

If Maf v Oka is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - and we talked about this- Anti isn't scum, the only option here is GL/Manatee/You -

again 100% chance IMO of scum in this scenario

and it's reasonable that no quicklynch occured due to your activity.

Did we talk about this? The royal we, you mean, because not everyone is sold on Anti as town. So again, flawed premise, and looks like you're protecting Anti. Excluding Anti from the equation (again, with no justification), changes the probabilities

significantly

. You're removing a factor without justification, and also ignoring other results in your findings (i.e. in this scenario GL and Manatee are also 100% scum, so you should be concerned about them as well, especially Manatee) in order to support your narrative. The important point is no, this scenario does mean I am 100% scum.

If Scum vs Town - it would leave 2 more scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - you know where I'm going here...
Possible teams:
Maf or Oka/ Manatee/GL
Maf or Oka/Manatee/You
Maf or Oka/GL/You
The same 66%.

Again, leaving out Anti changes things significantly. Also puts Manatee and GL and 66%, so this doesn't make a better case against me than Manatee who is within the group of confirmed scum from your POV. That is, if you're deciding who among {Maf, Manatee, Otter} is scum, this scenario does literally nothing to help you conclude I am more likely scum than Manatee.

I'm sold on Anti as town- these are my reads, you literally asked ME why YOU are confirmed scum TO ME- did that part slip your mind conveniently???

You're acting like I initiated pushing a case against you all on my own, when in actuality YOU asked me to explain why I had you as scum? Now you're upset that I don't dive into everyone in response to your specific question about yourself and misrepping it as universal?

At this point, everyone's scum team possibilities are going to look different slightly because I don't know anyone's alignment but mine- give my alignment though I can make some assertions.
It seems like you're the only one unable to do that successfully and that makes me feel like you are having trouble keeping up with what a townOtter would mean for a scumteam because you're not town at all.

I am concerned with GL and Manatee- you being scum doesn't mean that they aren't scum in that scenario- again, you asked why YOU are confirmed scum, so I'm telling you.

Btw I literally said it doesn't make you more likely in that scenario- it's the fact that through multiple scenarios you have the higher chance of flipping red. Since it is lylo I am gonna go with who is most likely to flip red. Manatee is 50% at least.. while you and GL are both 66% at least to me. I'm not going to vote GL because I don't have an independent scum read of him. He's played well as scum and we only need to lynch 2 scum anyway. That can be you and Manatee or you and Maf- but you are in both of those options for me.

[Oath]

Deux.

THEN Maf v Anti (the current vote?) - we've all been online since, but activity does seem more staggered and less easy to orchestrate a quicklynch at this point and I can't clear anyone other than my reads

--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--

Now in post #534 you acquit GL, Anti, Oka, and Myself from comprising the scum team - on quickhammer basis, which I agree with but that is largely dependent on Manatee being town, because quicklynch by scum on townMaf (since scum wouldn't quicklynch scum) would only be possible with townManatee as that 4th vote- you basically conftown Manatee and Maf but then said you needed to go back over your Maf reads??? which brings me back to scenario #1- MANATEE AND MAF AS TOWN V TOWN IS 100% OTTERSCUM

This is all kinds of terrible.
1. “you basically conftown Manatee and Maf” –

No

. Precisely the opposite. Because there was no quickhammer, the town!Maf + town!Manatee world does not exist. One of them is scum. You are grossly misrepresenting my statements to fit your narrative.
2. What this means is that the scumteam cannot be comprised

entirely

within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath}, but could (and must) be comprised of at least one (maybe two) of you + one or both of Maf/Manatee.
3. I need to go back over my Maf reads because I need to decide between Maf and Manatee. It’s really not that hard to understand unless you are forcing a narrative in which I’m scum.

The only possibility you have of not being scum is with at least one of them as scum,but you were so quick to acquit us which reads like scum eager to sheep the tone of the thread and slip up because you can't see town POV.

Again, I am eliminating the possibility that the entire scumteam is within that group. Your “slip” is entirely fabricated (see previous point). Also, what do you mean I can’t see town POV? That makes no sense here.

1. See above - your acquittal of us as a team goes in line with a thought process that prior to the lack of a quicklynch you believed a quicklynch was possible - if you never believed it was possible the read of acquitting us was unnecessary to force fit the tone of the thread and provided no additional content. If you did think actually think of Maf/Manatee in relation to town (not possible), then you're likely attempting to townread one (or both) of your scum partners without outing them, but the slip is you outing yourself.
2. This is true, but your townPOV should have had that possibility settled because it's literally the only one that means you're not scum. You understand? You of all of us, NEVER should have considered a quicklynch a possibility to even recognize or give weight to if you were town. That thought process goes directly against Ottertown- this after clarification is where you should have been when you were asking if we all "at least agree no combination of {Gl, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam"
3. You hesistated to even establish that at least one of Maf or Manatee HAVE to be scum - You literally said that Invis flipping town made you feel like Maf would be town, but you're "feeling" like Maf is confscum - you don't even bother sorting Manatee, which if you have a town read on him means FOR SURE Maf is scum from your POV, but you hesitate to throw that down- Post #534 reads like you're leaving possibilities open that are literally impossible for you as town. That was my read of it.

I'm pretty sure by now you get what I mean by not seeing townPOV - none of your posts regarding possible teams seem to come from a townOtter-mindframe/perspective. They seem to be filtered by what's happening around you.

Now we have this terrible post:

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is practically a scumclaim

@ Maf Look at this list

Anti
GL
Oath
Oka

Otter
Manatee

- because they aren't scum right?
MafMan

IF YOU ARE TOWN you're saying the entire scum team is in Anti, GL, Oka, or me (Oath)... then why are you still alive? Who do you think is scum?

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

And again, you see this from Maf, call it a scumclaim, call maf “definitely scum,” but then revert to your flawed probabilities and slip narrative to vote me instead, presumably because you think it is not possible that Maf and Manatee are both scum with someone else. But why is that?

This is also based on the flawed premise that two of the three of us must be scum. But earlier you had Oka in this basket (your very first point in your post) as well. You were also entertaining the idea earlier that GL and Oka might be scum together, in which case there are still several possible worlds in which I am not scum. Given all of that, what makes me the better vote over Maf, who, in your own words, just scumclaimed?

Manatee/Maf scumteam is bad scum, terrible play. Seriously. I don't understand why that part is difficult to understand. Maybe I'm giving Manatee more credit? Sure. If MafMan had been the one to vote Manatee- I might be more on board with them both being scum- because I'm not sure Maf is completely understanding things. But it makes no sense, that is why I don't to that scum on scum -man/maf scenario with much weight- it is possible though, just unlikely.

I don't recall saying 2 of the three of any group MUST be scum... I explained exactly why 2 of the 4 of Maf, Manatee, Oka, and You are scum
- clarify what you're getting at here, because it feels like you're connecting dots I never made or confusing me talking to Maf with THEIR perspective in mind.

Maf wasn't my vote because there is a part of me that really feels like Maf is an idiot (sorry). The practically scumclaiming thing seems so wild. SO WILD. So yeah I am leaning scum hard on Maf, but it's not certain to me. Maf/Manatee scum/town is still by all other information at least 50/50. Your probability is at least 66% in all my scenarios.

yes... so is GL's, but if you recall I literally said I'm only thinking Otter is scum if Invis is town and GL is scum.

So my feeling on a scum team is Manatee or Maf/ GL/ Otter.


It's not that I wasn't including them (or anyone else for that matter) which is the tone you gave your post. I was focused on YOU because you asked me specifically about YOU.

[Oath]

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

so, to be 100% clear, you know exactly why what you're arguing is impossible but you're doing it anyway?

its hard when you feel you are right on both sides
with your scumreads and townreads


its confusing the shit out of me

Who do you think is scum Maf? I asked this a while ago and you've dodged.

[Oath]

brainstorming: i can think of a couple reasons why maf is still holding onto this

>he's scum and otter is town: it's kind of an appeasement thing. he doesn't want to piss otter off too much/ give him impetus to omgus

>he's scum and otter is scum: manatee's vote and absense of a quickhammer painted maf into an unexpected corner. at that point, he can either turn on his manatee read (LOL, that's the only read he's insisted on this whole game) OR acknowledge otter is scum and bus (umfavorable). so he takes the third option and sticks with nonsensical reads

since he's acknowledging that it is an irrational position, i think one of the above two are infinitely more likely than just technical incompetence

VOTE: mafmen

Please unvote.

Seriously we can go over this, but genuinely this isn't something we can put at L-2 right now. We lose.

[Oath]

Genuinely you think it's more probable that maf is scum and otter is town?

what makes maf more scum than manatee aside from maf's read? do you objectively think it's not possible for manatee/otter scum?

[Oath]

I'm so not willing to let dumbtown lose this for us so please give me something more than MafMan being wildly off base. Neither beneficial as town or scum. Please see that. That's the only reason I'm not railing him. As ridiculous as it is, it serves no purpose either way. Why would he need to appease Otter?

[Oath]

OMG ANTI IF YOU DO FREAKING MOVE YOUR VOTE PLEASE IF YOU'RE TOWN

[Oath]

YOU GUYS

Otter is scum, obviously I was wrong and it's Oka too

[Oath]

I guess objectively it could be Manatee/Oka/GL as well, but I wouldn't be writing post 581 instead of just QH'ing if I knew Oka was around

On Maf -Manatee, Anti, Oka

1. Why would Oka vote Maf?
They could genuinely believe Maf is scum- hmmm, okay they've been saying this is possible but didn't place a vote until AFTER Anti put Maf at L-2 which really discredits a townPoV for Oka
-either Maf and Oka are both scum and it's bussing OR Oka is scum trying to quicklynch a townMaf
- both cases scream Okascum

2. Who was online to successfully pull off a quicklynch on a townMaf

Online in thread - not already on Maf: GL, Me(Oath)- Obviously Maf was around but wouldn't vote themselves.
- Neither GL or myself hammered.
-ScumGL or ScumOath would hammer a town Maf so either Maf isn't town OR the hammer vote was with Otter (scum team being Manatee/Otter/Oka)

I was going to try acquit Otter by looking at log in, but it says his last log in was at 9:37am(PST) and he just posted in thread at 2:23pm (PST) so that's unreliable - he could have been active the entire time between then and simply not posting in thread. It's weird that he's here now -- suspiciously late, and saying he's not voting anyone which makes me feel like it was poorly coordinated quicklynch.

GL doesn't hammer - scum GL would hammer a townMaf
I don't hammer, to be objective - scum Oath would hammer a townMaf
Anti unvotes within a minute of Oka's vote - there's no way Anti is scum if Maf is town.

scumMaf ran up to L-1? Why would scum bus Maf AFTER an Anti vote? The timing is the messed up part. That being said townMaf confirm towns GL, Anti, and myself - but if we flip a townMaf we lose. scumMaf doesn't really clear or confirm anything except. MafMan could actually be scum with anyone that's probably why he's still alive - it's lynchbait.

Okascum would run a townMaf up to L-1 for quicklynch- not seeing the town motivation until waiting for Anti's vote (this does seem like confirmation that Anti is definitely town)
Okascum running a scumMaf up to L-1 for what? Scum quick lynching scum? If they were gonna bus why wait for Anti's vote? Either way it's irrelevant
These scenarios all run on Okascum. That's where it's at. Town has no benefit to an L-1 Maf WITHOUT discussion. Mind you Oka came in with that vote quickly after Anti. That's not town. We're in lylo.

So even if it is bussing- Oka is practically confirmed scum regardless of Maf's alignment - and for that reason this should be the lynch today.

I think it's the safest bet for getting us to tomorrow. Even though I'm inclined to think the team is Oka/Otter/Manatee - it could very well be Oka/Maf/Manatee and explain why Oka was so dead set on both of them being able to be scum- because they knew that was the case. Also possible:
Oka/Maf/Anti - again, what is the point of Antiscum with Mafscum running Maf up to L-1?There would be no way to ensure a quicklynch on scum when all of them are apart of the wagon already and that would essentially be offering Oka up instead of Maf. Why? it doesn't clear Maf? Anti would know that, so this is HIGHLY unlikely.

Oka/Otter/Manattee
Oka/Maf/Manatee
Oka/Maf/GL

These are the possible teams- with Oka being the common demoninator. We lynch Oka we've got scum for sure.


UNVOTE:
VOTE: Oka

alright so now the Otter/Manatee/GL team is officially ruled out, mirite

Yes. But
Otter/Manatee is still very possible especially with Oka as the third.


GuiltyLion however can only be scum if Maf is scum. Still pretty unlikely imo.

[Oath]

Listen I'm trying to get you guys to realize this set up plays in our favor. We only need 2/3rds of the team so even if you think I'm scummy we can still successfully lynch 2/3rds and win.

Everyone is dropping off and not sorting. Which doesn't help because there are only 7 of us. 3 of those are scum. If they deadlock we need every member of town to agree on the lynch which is why I believe each of my votes has stayed solo. I would concede I work a lot in probability but we have a great deal of information!

Even you Otter would have to concede that (If you're town) oka and one or both of,maf/manatee is in the scum team at this point given that the team can't be anti, gl, and myself . I run the scenarios to make this clear to you guys we're close to winning and ignoring the obvious.

[Oath]

Can we do an objective listing - meaning I will list not accounting for my own known alignment or anyone else's first. No town reads. No scum reads. Just probability.

Player list :
Anti
GL
Oath
Otter
Manatee
Maf
Oka

These are all the possible scum teams : 35 ? You can double check I sorted them myself so I may have made an error

Spoiler: All Possible Scum Teams

Anti/GL/Oath
Anti/GL/Otter
Anti/GL/Manatee
Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/GL/Oka
Anti/Oath/Otter
Anti/Oath/Manatee
Anti/Oath/Oka
Anti/Oath/Maf
Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oath/Otter
GL/Oath/Maf
GL/Oath/Oka
GL/Oath/Manatee
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Otter/Manatee
GL/Otter/Oka
GL/Oka/Manatee
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Oath/Otter/Oka
Oath/Otter/Maf
Oath/Otter/Manatee
Oath/Oka/Manatee
Oath/Oka/Maf
Oath/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Now... Let's remove the highly improbable scum teams:

Every team in which the ENTIRE team is Anti, GL, Oath, or Oka has been removed- because a lynch could have already been achieved.
Every team containing GL or Oath WITHOUT Maf has been removed - Maf was at L-1 with Oath, GL not voting Maf and achieving a lynch,- ScumGL/ScumOath would have hammered a Town Maf, these are linked so that neither Oath or GL can be scum opposite a TownMaf (however ScumMaf could have several different partners)
*Anti UNVOTED Maf which I find to be towny because given Oka's vote that put Maf at L-1, I see no scum unvoting if they were going for a quicklynch but since this isn't as agreed upon by everyone I left scenarios with Anti as scum with or without Maf.
GL/Otter/Manatee has been removed because Maf voted Anti and there was a period in which they could have already achieved a lynch.

Spoiler: Probably Scum Teams

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Oath/Maf
Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oath/Maf
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Oath/Otter/Maf
Oath/Oka/Maf
Oath/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Anti- 8/19
GL- 5/19
Oath - 5/19
Oka - 8/19
Otter - 8/19
Manatee - 8/19
Maf - 15/19

The great thing about this is we all know our alignments SOOOOOOO

Town Anti would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

GL/Oath/Maf
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Oath/Otter/Maf
Oath/Oka/Maf
Oath/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

GL - 4/11
Oath - 4/11
Oka - 5/11
Otter - 5/11
Manatee - 5/11
Maf - 10/11

Town GL would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Anti/Oath/Maf
Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
Oath/Otter/Maf
Oath/Oka/Maf
Oath/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Anti - 7/14
Oath - 4/14
Oka - 6/14
Otter - 7/14
Manatee - 7/14
Maf - 10/14

Town Oath would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Anti - 7/14
GL - 4/14
Oka - 7/14
Otter - 7/14
Manatee - 7/14
Maf - 10/14

Town Otter would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Oath/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oath/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Oath/Oka/Maf
Oath/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Anti - 5/11
GL - 4/11
Oath - 4/11
Oka - 5/11
Manatee - 5/11
Maf - 10/11

Town Manatee would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Oath/Maf
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oath/Maf
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
Oath/Otter/Maf
Oath/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf

Anti - 5/11
GL - 4/11
Oath - 4/11
Oka - 5/11
Otter - 5/11
Maf - 10/11

Town Oka would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Oath/Maf
Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Maf
GL/Oath/Maf
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Oath/Otter/Maf
Oath/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Manatee/Maf

Anti - 5/11
GL - 4/11
Oath - 4/11
Otter - 5/11
Manatee - 5/11
Maf - 10/11

Town Maf would see the possible scum teams as: (whether he understand this or not)

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Otter/Oka/Manatee

Anti - 3/4
GL - 0/4
Oath - 0/4
Otter - 3/4
Oka - 3/4
Manatee - 3/4

Both - Manatee and Maf as Scum leave literally ANYONE as the third option - flipping either one of them isn't useful because of this. We aren't certain it's just one. We only know it's AT LEAST one and yeah statistically it's Maf, but that won't clear Manatee. We need a scum flip that will solidify multiple townies if possible or else we'll be right back here tomorrow. A town Maf would solidify TownOath and TownGL BUT WE DONT HAVE THAT LUXURY ANYMORE.

Spoiler: Manatee w/Maf 3rd Pairings - It's everyone

Manatee/Maf/Oka
Manatee/Maf/Otter
Manatee/Maf/GL
Manatee/Maf/Oath
Manatee/Maf/Anti

Now for the reads - this will be biased because duh they're MY reads... so keep in mind I'm removing myself from these because I know I'm town and you should account for your own alignment if you are town.

Oath's PoV Once again

Spoiler: Oath's Scum Team List

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Otter/Manatee
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Otter/Oka
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Oka
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

As I stated earlier, I'm removing all instances of Anti being scum WITHOUT Maf because a scumAnti vs townMaf had no reason to UNVOTE (honestly I could remove all Anti related groupings, but we'll wait until the end for that)

Result:

Spoiler: Remaining Scum Team

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Maf
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

The wagon was
Manatee, Anti, Oka - now the entire scum team waiting for a townie to hammer? I don't think so, but I've already removed this grouping for the fact that Anti UNVOTED Maf earlier.

Day 1 Lynch
Korina - 5 - Oath, Invisibility, Antihero, OkaPoka, MafMen
MafMen - 2 - LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion
Invisibility - 1 - Korina
LuckyOtter - 1 - ManateeDude

I don't believe the entire scum team was on Korina's lynch, but if they were it would have to be Anti/Oka/Maf. - so I'm removing this team as a possibility.
What I find odd upon re-reading is that GL was on Korina and then UNVOTED here: viewtopic.php?p=10314649#p10314649 - for no specific reason
That being said I'm not convinced- Lucky Otter also parked his vote on Maf and ManateeDude's SR have all been gut reads- the entire game and he votes for Otter here: viewtopic.php?p=10309796#p10309796 - not bothering engaging.
If all the scum were OFF Korina's lynch the only option for scum team is GL/Otter/Manatee - I've already removed this option as GL cannot be scum without Maf.

So the likelihood is that the entire scum team was NOT on Korina's lynch.

Let's split the group and say there is AT LEAST one scum on the lynch and AT LEAST one scum off
Group A
Antihero, OkaPoka, MafMen

Group B
LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion,Manatee


Result after Day 1 analysis: *Unchanged*

Spoiler: Same Scum List As Above

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Maf
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Day 2 Lynch
Invisiblity - 5 - GuiltyLion, OkaPoka, Oath, LuckyOtter, Antihero
OkaPoka - 2 - Invisibility, MafMen
MafMen - 1 - ManateeDude

The entire scum team could only be parked on Invisibility in the following teams:
*No Maf teams included as Maf isn't on Invis
*No GL teams included as Maf would have to be scum and is not on Invis
*No Manatee teams included as Manatee was not on Invis

The only possible scum team that could be ENTIRELY on Invisibility is:
Anti/Otter/Oka - I already cancelled this team out because of the fact that Anti cannot be scum without scum Maf.

So the likelihood is that the entire scum team was NOT on Invisibility's lynch.

Let's split the group and say there is AT LEAST one scum on the lynch and AT LEAST one scum off
Group A
GuiltyLion, OkaPoka, LuckyOtter, Antihero

Group B
MafMan, Manatee

Result after Day 2 analysis: *unchanged*

Spoiler: Same Scum List As Above

Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Otter/Maf
Anti/Manatee/Maf
GL/Otter/Maf
GL/Oka/Maf
GL/Manatee/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Maf/Oka/Manatee

Vote count analysis was largely unhelpful to me but I'm still posting my thoughts because maybe it'll help one of y'all. Same for the lists- use them it took me long enough to sort them lol

Now Day 3-

Excluding Maf/Manatee because I don't find their flips beneficial unless we are at deadline and need to lynch because of the reasoning stated above I would say Oka is the scummiest person.
Why would town vote up to L-1 in a lylo situation? Why was Oka's L-1 placing vote so quickly behind Anti? There is no way to be sure that person is scum - there was no reasoning, and since Oka has been nonchalant
As I stated before this makes Oka scum to ME regardless of Maf's alignment. Maf could very well still be scum which is why Oka was comfortable voting them up to L-1 or Maf could be town and Oka was going for a failed quickie.

If Oka was town and thought Maf was scum, why then? Oka had a scum read BEFORE Anti placed his vote- Oka could have voted Maf without issue at ANY time.
I am confident that an Oka lynch flips scum. Town have ZERO motivation to act as Oka did. Voting is one thing. Voting to L-1 in lylo is another. Voting to L-1 in lylo RIGHT AFTER someone else places a vote?! Suspect.


Results after Oka ONLY scum teams:


GL/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Maf/Oka/Manatee

The only option for townMaf is Otter/Oka/Manatee, but scumMaf is 3/4 with Oka's remaining scenarios. What scares me is that Although Maf has the highest probability of being scum- he was also easily put at L-1 in what looked like an attempted quicklynch.

My fear is Maf lynchbait which leads me to believe that the scumteam is in fact Otter/Oka/Manatee and that Otter was late to hammer - if you look at the posts:

Post #581 (ISO) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:07 pm - Oka votes Maf to L-1
Post #585 (ISO) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:08 pm - Anti unvotes Maf - Maf no longer at L-1
Post Post #593 (ISO) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:23 pm - Otter appears in thread with a post saying "This is me not voting anyone. Maf is scum tho"

The threat of hammer was well over by the time Otter posted in thread seemingly trying to clear themselves, yet it's close enough that perhaps this was a missed opportunity? It feels odd. I even tried to clear Otter at the time by checking activity and you can find my explanation of why that did not work here: viewtopic.php?p=10329277#p10329277

I also am hung up on Maf being town as a gut thing - I've never understood the scumreads on Maf AND Maf isn't playing to any wincon right now. I have said it before and I continue to apologize but he's being less than smart as town or scum. This set up allows scum day talk - the entire team is horrible and not helping him OR he's alone here and stupid town. That's just how I feel and given the player list I don't think anyone here aside from ManateeDude (because of activity) would hang their scum buddy out to dry like what is happening to Maf. It's too easy.

Special acknowledgement:

***The team of Anti/Oka/Maf fits all requriements for Anti scum (as Anti couldn't be scum without Maf and Maf is in this team as well)
I removed this team based on the fact that: 1. I have a hard town read on Anti 2. I don't believe the entire scum team was on the day 1 lynch. 3. MafMan is likely confused town.
If you disagree with any of those things you may want to account for this. As goes with anything in the MY reads section.***

[Oath]

Statistics mean nothing to the individual. It's just nice to have them laid out in front of you to make it easier for everyone to sort them down by their own reads.

[Oath]

oath
Anti/Otter/Oka
thats what im thinking

... I guess Hell froze over, either way I'm here for it.

ATTENTION ALL TOWN MEMBERS WHO HAVE OTTER/OKA SCUM TEAMS AS PROBABLE

We do not need to agree on the 3rd member- doing so is useless. The best course of action is to lynch Oka today. If we lynch 2 out of 3 scum we win. So as long as we agree it's OKA/OTTER we're clear for the win.

For instance. I don't buy Anti as scum- doesn't matter if you do or don't. We'll never have to vote Anti to win even if by some slim chance he is scum.

[Oath]

UNVOTE:

*sigh*

[Oath]

Okay guys... let's get on one page.

[Oath]

Effort does not equal town. Lynching anyone but maf today is insane. Checking back in tomorrow.

It doesn't.

But lack of effort is definitely not beneficial to town. You come in drop a sentence and don't help us sort at all. We have a lot of information. Things you could weigh in on. Why is Maf scum? Is it the probability? Outside of probability, because there are scenarios in which he isn't scum, has he been indicatively scum motivated? How do you feel about ManateeDude? What about Oka's L-1 vote? Are you still considering Anti possible scum after they unvoted Maf?

I mean Otter, I've given you the benefit of the doubt and all it seems like you do is the bare minimum to stall us, occassionally offering up something of value that has usually already been said aka sheeping reads.

I definitely don't want your lynch today, but why are you so set on Maf? That's really the reason I don't feel comfortable with a Maf lynch because I don't trust you or the fact that he was run up so quickly. If you are town, this is me literally begging you for help/answers.

[Oath]

I feel like I said yesterday that I would be busy today. If not, I'm busy today.

I have been scumreading maf prior to this. Mostly because getting him to offer any reads at all is like pulling teeth.

Who exactly am I sheeping when I say you are scum and there's a good chance one of anti or gl is your partner?

I will check in tomorrow. Still have plenty of time.

You did not as far as I can tell.

You haven't outright said I'm scum though. You haven't actually been set either way this is why I'm asking. You've gone through all of the possibilities and still haven't clearly stated which you think is the MOST likely scum team.

Example:
here: viewtopic.php?p=10331046#p10331046

You say it's possible for Maf & Manatee scum plus ONE of GL, Anti, or Myself
In the same post you say it could be ONE of Maf/Manatee, and TWO of GL, Anti, or Myself
Stating that you wouldn't be surprised if the team was GL, Maf, and Myself

^ This would have been fine, BUT an hour and a half later...

here:

Now I'm annoyed and can't focus on my other work so I started working on scenarios. This is literally just POE based on the following events:
Manatee votes Maf
Anti votes Maf
Oka votes Maf
Oath votes me
Oath votes Oka

If you'd like to know which combos I eliminated at which stage and why, I'll provide that upon request instead of flooding you with a wall of all the steps.

There are 20 total combinations of 3 choices among 6 people, and I've narrowed it down to 8 possibilities including:
Maf + Manatee + Anti
Maf + Manatee + Oath
Maf + Manatee + Oka
Maf + Manatee + GL
Maf + Oath + Anti
Maf + Oath + GL
Maf + Oath + Oka
Manatee + Oka + Anti

The only scenario in which Maf isn't scum is the one where all 3 scum are sitting on town!Maf waiting for a townie to hammer. This is the dumbest scenario and will make me cry if it turns out to be the right one. So unless someone can convince me that that's not the dumbest scenario, or if there's any other scenario where Maf is town and I messed up in my PoE, that leaves Maf in every other possible combination, meaning I am 100% voting Maf today.

Manatee and Oath are both left in 4/7 combos, including one shared one. Oka, Anti, and GL appear in 2/7 combos each.

Again, I haven't reread to check associatives, but gut says Oath more likely than Manatee tomorrow.

Pedit: Well let's hope it's a

Maf + Manatee + Oka team

because otherwise someone in the {Anti, Oath, GL} love triangle is about to get their heart broken. Except that means Oka is literally asking us to lynch both his partners. Though, it might actually be plausible given the history of this setup, I think.

You list all the teams you see possible- except you don't list all of them you narrow it down to 8 teams when at this point from your PoV as I laid out here: viewtopic.php?p=10332506#p10332506
You should have 11 possibilities, but you left out 3:
Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oka/Maf

3 of which DO NOT have me in them. Why did you leave out those possibilities? Maf is in all 3 (and he's your only consistent scumread), as well as Anti or GL who you claim are all possibilities. You say you'll provide them on request but we're in lylo your job is to help us sort not only provide information as requested.

That post was the reason I did my post because yours seem so pointed- to skew the fact in probability by not presenting all options and hoping it would go unnoticed. I noticed. I even waited to see what would come of it, but you're not active. So we're here.

Then in bold: You claim it should be Me or Manatee tomorrow, but then state a Maf, Manatee, Oka team is plausible which would make me town in your eyes and lynching me a loss for town.

You go back and forth between presenting several possibilities including everyone (except yourself, but that's reasonable) - never actually giving weight to what team you think is most likely without back tracking from it.

I'm all for taking the time to sort- but you present as if you have no idea who could be Maf's partner in your eyes and town doesn't need to lose because you want to take a shot in the dark. I will give you credit for holding fast to your Maf read consistently as scum and calling for that lynch. I want us to have some where to go. I want reasoning for Maf being scum. We are down to the wire.

PSA for everyone: Just because we have time doesn't mean we sit in silence until 24 hours before deadline. It means we work now and maximize the time we have. You don't have to place a vote to talk and help us sort. I can't imagine why it's beneficial to anyone but scum to push off discussion with "oh we have time".

[Oath]

For these combos:

Also, "skewing the fact in probability" is exactly what you've been doing by precluding Anti as an option

from the outset, with nothing substantial to back it up

Actually in my post I included all Anti possibilities that made logical sense. My personal read on Anti is that he isn't scum, but if you read my post you'd also see that I've clearly laid out why Anti as scum or town is irrelevant as WE NEVER HAVE TO VOTE HIM to win- we could lynch 2/3rd of the scum team and succeed. This is why I want your team options- if we can all agree to 2/3rds we can go through with a plan.

'Plausible' does not mean 'most likely,' it means 'believable,' or 'possible.' I can find one scumteam plausible but less likely than another. I also have the right

and the obligation

to weigh different options when I am uncertain about them, so while I have to consider the possibility that you are town (and it is still a possibility), that you continue to twist my words is not helping your case. Neither is your erratic voting behavior. If you are town, wouldn't someone who voted voted you

when there is a much more certain scum option present

immediately make that person shoot up in your scum ranking?

1. I'm not making a case for myself. I'm asking you about your reads. We seem to be approaching this from two different mind frames and that is what worries me about you.
2. My erratic voting behavior? I voted You and then I voted Oka, neither of which were in danger of lynching based on what we have in activity there obviously isn't a scum team capable of quicklynching- I could lynch either you or Oka and be comfortable with it because I genuinely think you and Oka are scum. I only think Oka should go first because I am slightly more convinced by the L-1 vote.

Responding to your questions from earlier, which are fair:
Why is mafmen scum, other than probability? Let's look at his ISO:
- Defense of Manatee is based on so little information, I don't know how he could be so sure Manatee is town. I brought this up, and Maf never really adequately answered this. This feels like scum trying to get some town cred should manatee get mislynched. Then again, both Oka and I have seen a townie hard defend someone for no reason, and that person turned out to be scum. I really doubt that that's happening again, but it's not impossibile.
- He has been consistently hesitant to provide scumreads. The first ones he provides are from PoE and he doesn't seem to ever try to do much sorting from there. He, and I think I'm not exaggerating here, does literally nothing in the way of poking and prodding others. He just responds to questions and occasionally scumreads people with no justification
- D2 he says Invisibility is acting scummy but doesn't vote him. This could very easily be scum trying to fan the flames while not having to join the wagon.
- The scumread and vote on Anti also comes with no justification
- Hard townreads me then flips on me with no justification
This is scum.

- This is what I mean by inconsistent. Maf is scummy for hard defending Manatee, but you have admittedly seen townies do that, but also you doubt it's happening here? You seem to be leaving yourself a lot of outs should you decide to change your tune before a lynch.
- You also state that Manatee and Maf have done an equal amount of nothing to help, but are still pushing for Maf before Manatee- why Maf first? That's what I want to know. That's where my hesistation lies. Both of them have presented as equally scummy. We know that at least one of them is scum. You wanting Maf first, seems odd. I don't want either one of them lynched today because if either does flip red, where does town go tomorrow? There is still the chance that both are scum, so a red flip doesn't clear either of them.
Justification is tricky for me, because although town should provide reasoning and justification I don't think the absence of it is immediately alignment indicative. Now Oka's L-1 without justification came so quickly after Anti that it reads as scum circumstantially given that we're in lylo. Otherwise I probably wouldn't give it the weight I have.

How do I feel about Manatee? Great question, and I don't know. Either Maf was trying to protect him earlier or just WKing him. Manatee as scum would help explain why no quicklynches have happened. If Mafmen has been unhelpful, Manatee has been less helpful. You want to get one someone's case about doing the bare minimum, why are you looking at me?

What about Oka's l-1 vote? With Maf as scum it doesn't mean much to me, to be honest. Doesn't even make Oka less likely to be his partner. I think scum are probably happy to bus Maf as long as they can secure the mislynch tomorrow.

I am looking at you because you're here. ManateeDude has shown he's not going to participate either way, prodding that slot isn't going to get us anywhere. I need information.

I asked about Oka's vote because if it's likely to you that Oka is Maf's partner then why not lynch Oka today? Whether Maf is town or scum, Oka's vote is not a town move. That is my point. We need to lynch the most likely to flip scum, so unless you think Oka could still be town I would reason that Oka is the better lynch TODAY.

Now, I still need to check associatives to see which scumteams I generated actually make sense. I can't do that right now but I will when I have a moment. I am in the middle of moving houses right now so forgive me if my top priority right now isn't posting walls of text. I literally painted half of a house yesterday and should be packing exactly right this second.

Honestly, this makes no difference to me. Sorry if that's mean, but if you don't have the time don't play the game. I like to win and I've seen town lose too many times because of poor activity and if you are town I need you to show it.

In the meantime, Oath, is there gameplay other than D3 activities that points to Oka as scum for you? Unless I've missed it (which is possible as I haven't had time to reread carefully), I haven't seen a good case from anyone against Oka based on overall gameplay.

Outside of D3 activities I wasn't on Oka at all really, but looking back...
Oka and Anti are the only people who were on both lynches (besides myself)
Oka argues for both town and scum Korina and Invis, but ultimately chooses to vote them over Manatee and Maf they've consistently called scum.

I will say the strength of my conviction is from that vote. Oka has yet to clarify, not even really bothered. Oka has been nonchalant about it, as have you. It almost seems like you both want us not to think too much about it. How is that not a red flag though? Placing someone at L-1 in lylo as rapidly as Oka did should rub you the wrong way? It's the circumstance. It's that Oka could have placed the vote at any time if they wanted Maf lynch yet waited until after Anti voted. That is what makes me believe Anti is town and Oka is scum because in that situation Anti unvoted. If there was something happening, mislynch or scum partner bus, Anti was not going to allow it to happen which if Anti were scum, I would think that they'd allow a townMaf mislynch for the win OR be on board with bussing their scum partner if that was the plan.


Maybe this will make more sense to everyone: We have to lynch scum today or we lose. The game mechanics are so that if we lynch scum they get a kill.

If we lynch Maf and he's scum- do you think scum will kill a townManatee? Or would they leave him here to be inactive and another case of WIFOM?
If we lynch Manatee and he's scum - SAME QUESTIONS except will they kill a townMaf?

Lynching any scum will always mean one of whichever remaining five of us dies : GL, Anti, Otter, Oath, Oka
If you lynch Oka scum, that narrows their kills down to the 4 of us. If Oka is town- I'm pretty sure we've lost anyway, they're now easily lynchbait just like Maf.
Do you not find that more beneficial in narrowing down the possibilities? Especially considering that you and I have opposing views on Anti, GL, and each other? They'd have to confirm one of us in the flip.
MafMan has so many scum teams possible the flip of them does nothing but get us to tomorrow in the same place essentially.

Again this relies heavily on Okascum but you've not denounced Oka as scum, only that you prefer a Maf lynch. So can you see what I mean at least?

[Oath]

Clarify what? I think mafmen is scum like i have been saying so i voted him

Why did you wait until Anti voted to place the vote?

Ok can we honestlyjust lynch mafmen.. its too late to make any crazy game decisions.

Im assuming oath is town rn. Not really feeling any other townvibes

We're not making decisions, we're discussing them. Who else is scum with Maf?

[Oath]

It was the right time... in lylo... to put Maf at L-1... that early into the day... without discussion? Were you not concerned with a hammer vote or did you want one?

[Oath]

Well considering GL, Anti, and Myself are the only ones not on Maf I'm really not afraid of a hammer here though I will say Maf is at L-1.

I don't know what to say to you, Otter honestly even if you are town. Maf over Manatee or Manatee over Maf is basically the same probability so it comes down to reads.

Manatee has given me no reason to think he's town.
Maf has given me weird reasons to think he's not scum.

Oka has given me one pretty huge reason to think he's definitely scum.

That's where I'm at.

[Oath]

They're both likely scum and if either one of them is town, we've probably lost anyway because I can't see us not lynching the other one tomorrow seeing as there is literally no way scum would kill either townMaf or townManatee after watching us go back and forth over this.

I feel like this game is going in one direction and there really isn't anything else to do now but let it play out. I just have the fear that Maf really is town and it's Oka/Otter/Manatee, but of course Otter isn't gonna be on board with that. That is why I can't vote for Maf.

I genuinely would rather an Oka lynch for all the reasons I've stated. I don't even want an Otter lynch because that's too much of a risk. Oka, however, flips red here. MAYBE Manatee, but I only say that because of how much back and forth Otter and I have had over the difference between Maf and Manatee, which could all be garbage and it could be Maf/Manatee/Otter too and I'm completely wrong about Oka. I doubt it though because that L-1 vote HAUNTS ME. Maybe it's Oka/Manatee/Maf in some crazy gambit because of how scummy Maf and Manatee have been. I honestly don't know anymore. I felt confident at one point, but now I'm just tired.

I was out all night. I'm gonna crawl into my bed and clear my head. Please don't lynch anyone. I don't wanna wake up to a loss because someone was trigger happy. You guys keep saying we have time, well I need more time to think about this.

[Oath]

3. Can you explain to me what you think Oka's endgame strategy is? (Oath, I'd like you to answer that one as well)

I think Oka is pushing for Maf lynch for one of two reasons. Either Oka/Manatee/ Otter scum team is pushing for a Maf mislynch which is what I feel is most likely happening here OR Oka/Manatee/ Maf scum team think a scum flip on Maf clears them for the next day phase -which is doesn't, but this is kind of a runaway train for them now - least likely.

oath could you go over your reason for thinking mafmen isn't scum real quick plz?

Maf isn't playing to any wincon - nothing he does is beneficial to town, but it's extremely unbeneficial as scum. Given that scum in this game are given Day Talk I can't see any of the players here not being able to steer a scumMaf to a better play style as a partner EXCEPT Manatee because of activity. It also feels like Maf's lynch is agenda driven and that's the point of today, which is exactly why I'm pushing back against it. There is something wrong with Oka's vote. Period. That isn't how this game is played. Town have zero motivation for that. So either Oka is scum pushing a mislynch on Maf or Oka is scum bussing Maf for credit and setting up a mislynch for tomorrow (which I don't find as likely, BUT it is possible if Manatee is town). I feel like at this point, scum wants us to lynch Maf (regardless of alignment). It seems like lynchbait, too easy. I cannot ignore Oka's L-1 vote beacuse I will never forgive myself. That's literally the scummiest thing to do at this point in the game besides quickhammering and he did it AGAINST Maf - this makes it hard to believe that Oka/Maf are on the same scum team, but even if they are- Oka is scum in both scenarios. So it's not that Maf can't be scum, it's that there are more likely scum candidates and Maf isn't at the top of my reads.

Which brings me to...

Even if Oka is scum, I need to know why a Maf+Manatee team is impossible. Right now, that's the only possibility I see, unless I screwed up my PoE somewhere, so I don't feel comfortable voting outside of that pair.

Maf +Manatee isn't IMPOSSIBLE, but from my perspective it's highly unlikely because I believe Oka is scum and I don't think that Okascum/ Manateescum/ Mafscum makes any sense. There's no way Oka and Maf are scum partners in this game.

Reminder, this is where I'm at because I've yet to hear anything convincing about a town Oka scenario... so I'm looking at this as Oka scum all the way, leaving:
GL/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Maf/Oka/Manatee

All these teams have Oka, three have Maf, 2 have Otter, 2 have Manatee - Otter and Manatee share one;Oka/Otter/Manatee this is what makes sense to me as the scum team because it's also the only scenario in which Oka and Maf aren't scum together which I feel is true as well.

Yes, I am primarily looking at this game from Oka confscum PoV because I don't see how I'm the only one this bothered by that vote. Oka hasn't even explained it more than "I think he's scum" - that's not good enough. Manatee vs Maf is too much back and forth. I want Oka. I think Oka flips read here and we get to force their hand in killing one of Otter/Anti/GL/Myself , we don't flip Oka - even if we lynch scum - we turn that possible kill pool into 5 people still viewed as a possible townie. I don't want Oka here tomorrow because Oka will push Manatee and I can't be sure that Manatee isn't scum. Like I said if there is town in Maf/Manatee we've pretty much lost anyway, I'd rather go for a confirmed scum and see what they give us to work with tomorrow.

Think about it

AT LEAST one of
Maf and Manatee is scum

AT LEAST one of
Anti, GL, Otter, Oka, Oath is scum (5 options)

Maf and Manatee have equal probability of either alignment- it would boil down to reads essentially making it a shot in the dark with all of us guess on which we find scummier because no case solid against either.

As opposed to Oka who has been out right scummy today.

Now we flip a scumOka - scum get a kill

We still know at least one of Maf & Manatee is scum - because of this I HIGHLY doubt if one is town that they'll be the one scum kill because that would automatically implicate the other. So scum or town- both will be here after a scumOka flip.

Meaning scum will choose their kill from the leftovers GL, Anti, Otter, and Oath (Meeee) (4 options)
In that- confirming ONE player which at this point, combined with your reads should get us pretty darn close to the team. I don't wanna go far into it because of the WIFOM, but we can all look at our lists and the death of any of the 4 of us confirms that we're town and limits the odds down considerably. This sends us into our final lylo situation with 3 possible additions to 1 confscum in Maf/Manatee.

Now- if we DON'T flip a scumOka and we go with Maf or Manatee (assuming either flips scum)

Then scum will choose their kill from the leftovers GL, Anti, Otter, Oka, and Oath (5 options - at least one of which is scum) sending us into our final lylo situation with 4 possible scum additions to 1 maybe scum Maf/Manatee PERFECT for a mislynch set up- the reasonings been there all game and with Oka acting all scummy I'm almost certain if he's town we spend the better part of that day figuring out if it were a scum bus.

The point is flipping anyone other than scumOka creates more uncertainty. Flipping Okascum narrows it down. I hope that makes sense.

It's brain grouping.

Now I believe the team is Oka/Otter/Manatee so there is a part of me that says sure lynch Manatee, but there is still that uncertainy same with Otter that keeps me from wanting that lynch. I did see how Manatee's playstyle was different and he tried a tad bit more in other games, but neither Manatee or Otter seems like a smart lynch for today.

[Oath]

The main gripe against oka is his hasty l-1 vote, yes? Because it didn't allow for discussion and made a mislynch possible? Same could be said of anyone else's vote prior to that. I mean, Manatee's D3 vote is worse imo because literally 0 discussion had taken place yet (including from himself). Oath voted me on a poor PoE before letting me defend myself or letting anyone else weigh in, then later decides I'm actually not a good choice today. I'm not defending Oka's vote, just saying it's just as bad as other votes that have happened today.

Not going to be convinced on Oka, not today anyway. My move is happening in the next couple of days so I won't be able to do much more of substance between now and deadline, and I don't know what more I can do anyway until we get some flips. I'm still worried that Oath is pushing an oka mislynch, so while I have the chance I'm going to

VOTE: mafmen

Still willing to switch to manatee.

You do realize that none of those other votes today were L-1 right? It's about the circumstances, Otter. Oka intentionally waited until AFTER Anti to vote and put Maf at L-1 when we're in lylo without discussion. That's the holy trinity of scum voting. That is why it's a red flag. You pushing back against it is just another reason I see you Oka and Manatee as scum. You're going for Maf, but you'll push Manatee if you can't get it, right?

With that being said, I'll leave it at this. I want an Oka lynch- unfortunately GL, Anti, and myself can't do that alone- Oka won't vote himself, Manatee is set on Maf, Maf is ???, and Otter just outright refuses despite Oka's obvscum move. If it comes down to it, I'd rather Manatee over Maf because I genuinely feel the scum team is Oka/Otter/Manatee and Maf is their attempt at a mislynch and win.

I will die on this hill with Oka because if we lose it is 100% not because I refused to acknowledge scum moves right in front of my face. Give me actual town motivation for Oka's vote aside from "well he thought he was scum." Otter, you even said TOWNIES CANNOT BE SURE WHO IS SCUM. So you'd rather go with townOka risking our entire game on virtually nothing??? because that's what Maf has given us-nothing. A bunch of useless, confused posting. Or you could come over to the reasonable side where Oka is scum no matter what Maf's alignment is and this is how we stay in the game. Stop negating obvious things. This isn't gut. This is pure scum motivation no matter how you slice it. Even Otter gives weight to Oka possibly being scum and yet still wants Maf. There's something not right here.

It's almost like you're afraid of Oka's flip maybe because Okascum makes a large possibility for town Maf - meaning we're with scumManatee and if we lynch 2/3 it's game over.


Hopefully y'all see it and I don't have to spend anymore time going back and forth with Otter who I'm like 90% is scum anyway.

VOTE: Oka

[Oath]

you seem really set on selling this narrative of oka/otter/manatee

but why vote me?

im pretty sure there are more people here who are willing to vote manatee than me. if you are so convinced that you are right, the optimal play would be to vote manatee and push someone who is easier to lynch.

but also the optimal play is just to hammer mafmen right now and lynch manatee tomorrow.

Because I understand that there is a possibility that I'm wrong about Manatee and I want to push the scum I'm most sure about and that's you- I'm not here for who is "easier to lynch". You and Otter seem to have this same Maf or Manatee is fine perspective that I don't trust. It's not about easy lynches. It's about lynching scum.

[Oath]

Of course I realize those are not l-1 votes, but at lylo any misvote by town is the potential game-ender. Don't act like you don't realize this.

I have explained that I no longer see any scenario where either maf or manatee can be town. Oka might be scum, but equally and actually more likely, you are scum pushing a mislynch based on a hasty vote on oka's part. Maf and manatee are sure bets for me, oka is not. I've laid out my scumteams and maf and manatee are in all of them, so don't act so surprised that I want maf over oka. Can't be any clearer on this.

So no matter what. Today you're voting one of Maf/Manatee and if they flip scum then tomorrow you're voting the other half of Maf/Manatee?

[Oath]

^That's the problem. You've now decided there's no way one of them is town and if you're wrong we lose today or we lose tomorrow. Sure loss.

[Oath]

Yeah... why wouldn't Manatee/Maf scum team just vote for a townOka? Or do you think Oka is the 3rd scum? Because if so YOU COULD JUST VOTE OKA. None of this makes sense. You're entirely too certain it's both of them and that limits your possibilities to an alarmingly risky point.

My head. HURTS.

[Oath]

Maf isn't playing to any wincon - nothing he does is beneficial to town, but it's extremely unbeneficial as scum.

rly? i don't think i agree w that.

i think his early play has been in the service of defending manatee and delaying giving stances by insisting reads weren't possible, both of which advance a scum win con in a situation where manatee is also scum. i think his late game play can be explained by bad scum play forced by the non quick hammer earlier today. IN FACT his refusal to give new reads or any kind of thought process makes it look like he's turtling until his lynch and avoiding giving associative tells. yeah, it's not moriarty-level scumplay but it makes a bit of sense.

whereas, if he's town i can't rationalize mafmen's play at all.

Well we're gonna have to disagree there because I don't think defending any player is automatically indicative of alignment. IT CAN BE given certain circumstances, but in this scenario all his defense of Manatee has done has caused people to question him. When given outs and reasoning that he could have latched onto easily he didn't - it seemed like he waited and took his time trying to understand- which again aligns with me feeling like he's not the best townie here in terms of thought. That kind of makes me feel like it was at least genuine feeling and confusion and that I relate to on a serious level.

There is something wrong with Oka's vote. Period. That isn't how this game is played.

ok.... i think oka's play surrounding the day 1 hammer was scummy AND i think oka's drop-off in activity and effort at endgame could be a red flag. but both of these things have plausible town alternate explanations.

what exactly is wrong with oka's vote? is it that you think it looks like an attempted quickhammer or what?

I definitely think it was an attempted quickhammer, but even if it wasn't I would have to believe in Oka as reckless town. Do we have anything to support that style of play? I've never played with Oka before so I'm going off the fact that it's awful play for any townie. Like to the point that if someone had hammered and Maf was town and we lost that I would never play with a townOka again. So I'd hope Oka was scum here.

It makes me feel uneasy that something so obviously scummy is getting push back. What are the town explanations for such a thing? And by that I mean - voting someone to L-1 ONLY AFTER you placed your vote? Why didn't Oka vote Maf earlier, before you voted? That's the part no one seems to be getting. Oka has read Maf as scum all game, but WAITED TO VOTE until you did - that screams opportunistic. I need reasoning...And thinking someone is scum is not a strong enough answer. We all think someone is scum and we're not risking entire games that early into the day without reason or discussion.

[Oath]

Can we no lynch in this set up? Or is it plurality?

Because genuinely I don't think we're getting four votes - realizing that we have 3 scum and if they all decide to stand firm we need all of us townies to agree to achieve a lynch.

But look how things are playing out
Manatee is only gonna vote for Maf
Oka will vote for Maf or Manatee, but is parked on Maf
Otter will vote for Maf or Manatee, but is also parked on Maf
Anti seems Maf inclined as well.

- So in theory you guys could achieve a Maf lynch, but I know I'm town so I know scum is all up on that and that's why I won't be voting Maf at all

GL could probably be swayed to vote some other way if someone made a compelling argument
So I'm not voting anyone other than Oka today because it makes no freaking sense and even if Maf is scum it gives scum more outs for tomorrow and could possibly set up a Manatee mislynch

And can we talk about that? Let's say I'm wrong - Maf flips scum. MAFIA IS NOT GONNA KILL AND FLIP MANATEE. So... Manatee, if you are town and Maf is scum- how do we combat what I'm sure will be arguments against you tomorrow?

Otter has already made that intention to lynch both of them clear. How do we prevent the possible mislynch of either one of them? This is what I have been trying to get at! If either one of Manatee and Maf is town we are losing by going down this road no matter what. It is better if we leave them both and attempt to kill the most likely scum out of GL, Oath(me), Anti, Otter, and Oka and OKA IS SCUM. We force scum to flip one of our 4 remaining as well and we narrow down scum team odds extremely. That being said, if I'm wrong we lose today- but if any of us are wrong we lose one way or another. Manatee/Maf is just the surest way to lose this game imo.

If you're so settled into both of them being scum then maybe you don't mind, but I still think there's a chance for TvS here and although I'm leaning townMaf/scmManatee I would want a townManatee to consider what a scumMaf flip could mean for their life tomorrow- I don't think he's seeing that which again makes me feel like the scum team is going for a Maf lynch because Maf is town and they're not thinking about tomorrow's implications because today is the win.

My head is back to hurting. GL seems to be the only one understanding what I'm laying down for y'all.

P-edit: Sorry, is that mean? I just don't think that style of play is considerate to the rest of us- it falls in line with the I know what's best and don't care about what anyone else thinks mentality :/

[Oath]

I apologize, but I wouldn't play with any of them as town either. I don't respect people who create and play off reckless meta. They do it so we don't hold them accountable and it's garbage.

[Oath]

@Manatee- when you get in, I do want a response as to where we go after a scumMaf lynch...

In fact, I want everyone to answer that:
Specifically GL, Anti, and Manatee (Oka and Otter already basically said they want Maf today and Manatee tomorrow should we make it there)

What do we do after we lynch Maf if it's not game over??? - meaning Mafscum.

[Oath]

Btw- how you guys can't see an Oka/Otter scum team is crazy even just looking back on what I wrote it makes the most sense
Either Oka/Otter scum is mislynching Maf
or
Oka/Otter scum is bussing Maf to mislynch Manatee tomorrow.

COME. ON.

I have less faith in the latter because I don't see Oka and Maf on a team together, but genuinely - Oka/Otter is scum that third is what is throwing me.

[Oath]

i guess we can wait out the clock and mafmen will die that way

whatever

manatee tmr u fuks

Nope. We're getting otter pls ty

So your scum team is Maf/Otter/ and who?

[Oath]

wouldn't we quickhammer Oka

and by we I mean they

lmao I know that looks weird but it's late and I just assumed Anti/I were on the same team bc that's what I've been thinking this whole game

point stands that Anti/Otter/Maf would hammer Oka here

...
...
..
huh?UNVOTE:

[Oath]

Otter has made a pretty hardcore stance against anyone other than Manatee or Maf- a sudden switch would be alarming and would have to really be a quicklynch. Considering that neither Anti or Otter have been online since Oka reached L-1 (I unvoted and now he's at L-2) and Anti's last post was at Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:30 am PST I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be able to pull off a quicklynch if they wanted, but I don't know if I believe you thought that scenario through at all...

Anti/Otter/Maf couldn't hammer Oka- they haven't had a decent opportunity as a team, but neither has Anti/GL/Maf and the only reason this team was excluded was because I've had town reads on both of you-but it fits all my requirements of GLscum and Antiscum and I'm about to cry.

It's 2am here. I say this sincerely, Maf may be scum. My gut is telling me that something weird is happening here- still, no hammers until I get the responses to all of the questions I asked today and responses to GL's weirdness. I don't care if Maf flips scum, it's a scum claim to hammer before everyone has their say.

I also no longer want reads. I just want one name: who you would want lynched tomorrow, if Maf is scum.
AND
What you think of GL's post of "we"

That's it.

Once those are in- I'm hammering Maf. If you have an issue with that, I suggest you unvote.

[Oath]

You know what? No. I'm going for the gut. I will apologize and send all of you $5 on Venmo/Paypal or whatever if I'm wrong, but something doesn't feel right and I don't want scum to have anymore information if I am correct. I don't want them to know where anyone's head is - let them take a shot in the dark and see how far it gets them.

VOTE: Mafman

[Oath]

Honestly I'm sorry it was 2am and I hate feeling like maybe I was so into confirmation bias that I ignored the scumsigns like I said I'll send you money. I didn't mean to ruin it.

[Oath]

VOTE: Otter

[Oath]

The twist is we're all town

[Oath]

I wish I could have seen how Oath was gonna play this out

bc with Oka's first vote, if Manatee had simply cross-voted or not-voted, you would either have to push Oka (v dangerous without voting to back it up) or reverse tack and go on Manatee while pushing me as scum?

it worked masterfully at disassociating you guys but Oath would have had a tricky time playing today I think

I mean it played out how we wanted it to, just quicker than expected. I was gonna basically stall and reassess my "reads" after Maf's town flip. Probably put pressure on YOU since I know Otter was leaning that way and throw it out like I was mostly confused until the hammer vote was in my hands.

It is fortunate that I was mostly confident I would never be lynched, I just had to make sure Oka wasn't the target since I pushed so hard for him yesterday.

Well done. I had ruled out a oath/oka team.

What was the plan had oka been lynched yesterday instead of maf? Try to go for me or manatee?

Yeah basically. To be fair, I don't think it would have mattered much because the only threats to my game were Anti and Otter.

Sorry GL.

Also, I may or may not dead this alt so if you see "glowball" around. DAS ME

[Oath]

-_-

It says the in the post lol

glowball

[Oath]

-_-

It says the in the post lol

glowball

Oh hey glowball. You did play a good game.

Heyyyy