Micro 815: Greatest Idea - Game Over

[guacamole]

VOTE: LaserGuy

[guacamole]

first impulse is that adam's #17 is a scumpost

Is that the "talking one person voting another" scumtell?

[guacamole]

Out of {Not_Mafia, Hiraki, RadiantCowbells}, who do you want gone the most at the moment?

Curious why you chose these 3 to focus on for your question.

[guacamole]

That was odd but nice.

Someone explain to Hiraki how unlikely it is that someone choosing a non-town alignment would discard a role that makes cops insane.

[guacamole]

Some probability numbers, rounded to whole number percentages. Deck composition counted manually so I could have made errors. Might have rounded up instead of down somewhere but I don't have all day to be extremely precise.

These are the initial draw 3 probabilities. It is also possible to calculate the draw 2 probabilities of remaining hands by adjusting the deck for the discards.
This is a single drawn hand and does not reflect the effect of consumption of cards by the other hands. -- the percentages will be overstated compared to the actual distribution.

Probability calculator

Town cards: 55%
Other cards: 45%

p(0 non-town) 16% = p(3 town)
p(1 non-town) 41% = p(2 town)
p(2 non-town) 33% = p(1 town)
p(3 non-town) 9% = p(0 town)

Analysis: A non-town discard means the original hand was in the 84% of hands which had at least one non-town card. Of those, 41/84 had only the one non-town card, which is 48% of the possible 1+ non-town hands. 52% of the 1+ non-town hands have another non-town, and only 11% of the non-town discards have an all non-town hand to start with.

Analysis 2: Since the player's preferences factor into the discard and choice of alignment, these percentages can only serve as a guide to what was the probable hand composition. The probable choice of alignment is augmented by the ability that was discarded.

Analysis 3: I don't have a feel for AI-ness of what people think about the discards because I don't know their math foundation.

[guacamole]

An interesting corollary is that the probability of non-town cards remaining in a hand is higher if the discard is town.

[guacamole]

This is something we all know.

I'm going to focus on this specifically. Not going to quote it all right now (heading to work after taking my son to a dr appt, so don't have tons of time) but there has been discussion which implied that quite a few people

didn't

know it. Several probably did, I agree with that.

I can't give a definite yes or no on the supposed Not_Mafia towntell. I don't read his admitting that he sometimes does it as scum as necessarily town.

[guacamole]

@Hiraki, I originally read 16 as you assuming that alien discards chose mafia as alignment.
What was your motivation?

[guacamole]

I am making very little assumption that you care about my presence

You actually did state multiple times that N_M wouldn't change his approach (which you claim is choosing scum when possible)

in a game you're in

.
But I don't think that's useful as a focus of the read, and it would have been clearer to leave it out, unless you think your presence is really going to make a difference.
Is it well known enough that Not_Mafia would prefer scum roles if given a chance, regardless of other factors? I'd definitely buy into that.

[guacamole]

okay so it's pretty useless, i agree

why is it scum

why are we not powerlynching NM who is basically confirmed scum

I honestly don't think NM is scum here. Or at the very least, his discard indicates he isn't as likely to be scum.

I disagree on the basis that N_M isn't as likely to be scum. Their discard of Mafia Reflexive Doctor doesn't clear them of not being scum. The role isn't that beneficial to the mafia aka they could have had a better mafia card. And as far as play, I don't see anything AI.

I know it's early in the game but what do you think about N_M basically ignoring everything that's going on?

[guacamole]

I read (yours Brassherald) I meant Hiraki's. I wanted to know their thoughts on Guac

Why Hiraki specifically?

Plus, you asked for "someone" to explain it which two of us have done. So again, why do you feel the need to

specifically

ask Hiraki now?

I kinda want to know this too.

[guacamole]

Clarification: I meant this part of 16 in my question.

One of Gemini and guac is scum btw. Willing to bet money on that.

I interpreted 6 the same way that you did.

[guacamole]

2) Ircher complained that I did not talk about my Guac/Gemini post. He also decided to quote the same post where I did that but skipped the part where I talked about it. Go figure! Must be a coincidence!

Quotes would be helpful here.

[guacamole]

53 and 54 are two different posts on two different subjects. I don't get how addressing one of them and not the other, when they're on completely different topics, is shady at all.

[guacamole]

I took the 2nd half of 16 followed by 53 to be a reaction test / trap, trying to find someone who reacted to it on the assumption that if you get really lucky you'll find two scum.
That's why 53 asks LaserGuy who the partner was. It appears you thought you got scum in the trap set by 16.
Now you're saying it wasn't real to begin with, which is actually a bit surprising. Walking it back in 120 makes the question in 53 stand out even more as being weird.

[guacamole]

I took 16 to be the test, 17 to be the reaction, and 53 to be you asking Laser who (which of Gemini and me) his partner is.
It was also weird that you posted 53 after the flip. Unless you somehow thought that one of Gemini and myself could have started with two alien cards and remained alien, and that wasn't a question, it was a comment.

[guacamole]

Dayvig isn't necessarily town, but Ircher's play leans that way.
I kinda get Ircher's case on Hiraki and have my own suspicions there too. I'd have to go back over it slowly to see if there is scum motivation or if it's just bad.
RC's meta on Not_Mafia is enough for me to vote there, in the absence of N_M doing some town play.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[guacamole]

IMO Brassherald's reaction to my stats post is a little too policy driven and not paying enough attention to the context. I'll need to see more posting, I don't see it as being AI yet.

[guacamole]

Don't think the rest have enough posts to give a reliable read on.

[guacamole]

I think that’s

L-1

.

[guacamole]

Massclaim? What if theres another reason for a missing kill?
I’m not sure if Hiraki’s claim is just convenient or real.

[guacamole]

No answer on the massclaim question?

Do you think it will help?
Of course it would give scum a chance to claim something too.
Can I get an answer on this?


There can be as few as 1 antitown role left, if it's an alien.
Or there would need to be 2 mafia.
The most there can be is 2. 2 mafia, 1 alien 1 mafia, 1 alien 1 3p.
Doubtful there is both an alien and mafia with one flip claimed already -- if there is then Hiraki is one of them.

[guacamole]

I'll let Gemini go first on claiming.

[guacamole]

That's funny, I'm a town doc too. I saved RC.

[guacamole]

BTW I already softed.

[guacamole]

Wrong term - crumbed. Unless you consider the "there's probably another reason" thing as a soft lol.

[guacamole]

I think the most likely solution is that brass is alien.
Hiraki's cop would get "not mafia" in that case.

If brass is not alien, then most likely case is Hiraki and Ircher are mafia.

Also possible that Gemini saw the crumb and fakeclaimed doc but I consider that the least likely scenario. Gemini would have had to have two alien cards to still be alien. Gemini mafia fakeclaiming is possible but the 1:1 isn't a good scenario for mafia.

[guacamole]

197 -- 1st letter of sentences.

[guacamole]

Whenever I try to soft/crumb earlier in the game I usually fuck up and scum are the only ones who see it.

[guacamole]

Brass, explain your target choice.

[guacamole]

Hiraki, can you show us why you'd choose brass to cop?

[guacamole]

You wouldn't cop your strongest scumread?

[guacamole]

The deck doesn't have werewolves.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _and_Death

Does nobody read setups anymore?

[guacamole]

VOTE: Hiraki

[guacamole]

I think the most likely solution is that brass is alien.
Hiraki's cop would get "not mafia" in that case.

If brass is not alien, then most likely case is Hiraki and Ircher are mafia.

Also possible that Gemini saw the crumb and fakeclaimed doc but I consider that the least likely scenario. Gemini would have had to have two alien cards to still be alien. Gemini mafia fakeclaiming is possible but the 1:1 isn't a good scenario for mafia.

No.

Radiant is pretty much conf!town at this point. That’s a fact.

We also have a 1v1 in Hiraki and Brass. At least one of them is scum (and most likely, it’s Alien.)
We appear to have two town doctors as well. If that is the case, the two of you can just cross-protect and we are guaranteed a win by lynching Hiraki and Brass.

Obviously, I’m 1-Shot Day Vig and I shot Laser, so I can’t be Alien. That said, it’s more likely I am a Town day vig than it is that we have two town doctors.
Pedit: I was like 99% sure it did.

Also, UNVOTE:

212 was before the error was revealed, so you can just ignore it completely.
I'm not immune to making wrong conclusions with wrong data.

[guacamole]

What's the town motivation for choosing roleblocker in a role madness game? Odds are heavily against a town roleblocker making a useful block.

[guacamole]

Meaning what role was on the alignment card, right?
No objections. I'd be happy to explain the possibilities and why I made the choice I did.

[guacamole]

Nurse for me.

Available roles before discard were:
Town doc (chosen)
Town psychotrooper (god no, this is negative utility)
Mafia psychotrooper (hella good role but I prefer town TYVM)
Mafia nurse (still prefer town, plus this might as well be a goon)
Alien doc (didn't think there would be another alien to doc even if I wanted to be scum)
Alien nurse (might as well be whatever you call an alien goon, ugh)

[guacamole]

Separate question: in what world does town in a probable 5:1 or 4:1:1 think that happily ever after is a good result?

[guacamole]

50/50 whether to protect Ircher or RC as strong townreads, took RC...

Guac
RC
Ircher

Brass
Gemini

Hiraki

[guacamole]

Ircher can't be alien, Brass can. Either could be mafia.
Ircher's posting seems more town than Brass.

In light of mod error and reactions to it, by far the most likely case is Hiraki is Alien Joat looking for mafia and it's game over.

[guacamole]

If you want to persist in the outrageous idea that I had two alien cards or am mafia who discarded a psychotrooper, then town is beyond hope.

[guacamole]

Read my cards post closely.

[guacamole]

Not sure why you're saying to ignore it -- it was a mafia doctor.

[guacamole]

So, where'd everyone go?

[guacamole]

Doc Gemini. It was a tough choice TBH. Do the most obvious thing (doc RC again) or try to ensure wider coverage with doc of the other claimed doc.
I had a tinfoil that RC could have discarded mafia and kept alien, obvioiusly not the case.

[guacamole]

Alrighty then.

Brass, I want a case from you on who you think is most likely scum.
Guacomole, I want you to case Gemini.
Gemini, I want you to case Guacomole.

You have (expired on 2018-07-29 22:07:20) to do this.

Pedit: Guac would never choose himself. Also, a kill happened on RC so I’m pretty sure Brass isn’t scum here or at least not mafia.

Why would you want Gemini and me to case each other, and not the person we most think is scum?
My approach will be to analyze everyone with the info gained from flips.

[guacamole]

Busy weekend. Busy work day. And interesting series of votes.
Hold up y'all.

[guacamole]

Busy weekend.

Busy work day

. And interesting series of votes.
Hold up y'all.

I have my priorities straight. I'll do stuff when I'm not working.

[guacamole]

Guac was the one to question the matter of the docs questioning each other, not me.

What I questioned was why we should

case

each other.

Assuming

one of us must be scum, and

trying to force

us to case each other is a scum move. If it came from anyone less towny by behavior I'd yolo vote there in a heartbeat.

Yesterday I thought it was questionable to assume that we should automatically suspect each other. Doctor appears 5 times in the deck in a useful state (reflexive doctor isn't useful IMO). It's a role that many people would choose given the chance. This is not a normal where a CC is an automatic 1v1.

All 3 of you are getting the full treatment -- a town case, mafia case, and alien case. By full treatment I mean if you were this alignment which moves / posts / votes would make sense and which wouldn't. I haven't made up my mind yet. It's going to be a fairly significant investment. We have 10 days and I intend to use them if necessary.

I will be on the road close to 8 hours tomorrow afternoon/evening, taking my son to a live show in another city. That's after working all day. I'm sure as hell not going to try to play mafia in the mcdonalds drivethrough on the way. And when we get home I'll probably hit the sack without delay. No complaints about the time gaps please.

[guacamole]

EBWOP -

"only"

case each other. Like the person who suggested that assumed that there was no need to case the other two elephants in the room.

[guacamole]

This is largely a note to myself to organize my thoughts. If I'm wrong about something I welcome corrections. You are

not

welcome to cast shade about it being an IIOA post.

Possible setups:
2 town, 2 mafia (we must presume that the mod would not end a game on 2v2 when there are possible roles to interfere with night kills) <yes I too made the wrong assumption this wasn't possible, but then re-thought the "nothing can prevent" language>
2 town, 1 mafia, 1 alien
2 town, 1 3p, 1 alien
3 town, 1 alien

I think the 3p angle is extremely unlikely. Survivor type 3p in a mylo4 can announce and kingmake. That hasn't happened, therefore not a survivor.

[guacamole]

Keep it up and I'll be forced to vote you.
You are still on the table, and I fully intend to case all 3 of you.

[guacamole]

I think I'd rather try to win. If it's wrong it's wrong but that's better than not trying at all.

[guacamole]

I still have paranoid tendencies toward Ircher possibly being Alien and yolo vigging his partner. Or mafia yolo vigging though I don't remember the discard offhand. That happily ever after talk is creeping me out. But sometimes the guy acting like a town leader really is a town leader. I think the only way to win it is to trust someone.

What if it's mafia + alien, Brass + Gemini (coin flip which is which)? You're thinking a happily is the only way to not lose that, right? Everyone draws except ceejay?
If we lynch mafia and alien shot was expended, we win that. Try to make them waste a shot overnight and lynch tomorrow?

[guacamole]

I doc'd Gemini, with the thought that scum!brass would expect Ircher to be doc'd.

[guacamole]

VOTE: no lynch
It doesn't feel very satisfying but we seem to be unable to make progress.