Micro 813 - Game Over

[Antihero]

tbf, a 3 man quick hammer is hard to coordinate so i'm not putting much stock into "no quickhammer" spec rn

[Antihero]

yeah i think i should here

VOTE: antihero

that said, screw you if you're town

[Antihero]

like since Anti/Oath/Oka/myself have all been around, either Otter is confirmed scum to you or Manatee

oh lol wait i see what you're saying

if mafmen is adamant about manatee being town that narrows the scum pool to everyone else. since it's confirmed there has to be one scum outside of those given manatee!town, that would make otter confscum

ok yeah now i see what you're saying

[Oath]

like since Anti/Oath/Oka/myself have all been around, either Otter is confirmed scum to you or Manatee

See, but this fits in with my worst case scenario that it's Manatee/GL/Otter scum team and Otter just isn't active right now

Lone votes on
MafMan
Oka (at one point)
And now..
Anti

Manatee is since shown his head. Otter is the only one offline which to me is a clear signal that Maf/Man has scum and Otter is as well.

Otter is almost confirmed scum to me here. My gut tells me Otter is the reason they're staying at lone votes. Plus we only have to lynch 2 scum to win this which is really in our favor. I never have to wonder about Anti or GL because even if they are the 3rd scum in some far off land we only need 2.

So who's left
MafMan
Manatee
Otter
Oka

-At least two of these are scum.



If Maf is scum, Manatee town- Oka???
Maf/Otter/??? scum team

If Manatee is scum, Maf town
Manatee/Otter/???
Manatee/Oka/???

Which is again why I need those reads, Manatee

P-edit: @ Anti, I think the idea that GL is getting at is that we've been active in very close proximity therefore would have easily pulled it off by now. Which in that case carries the weight that we three cannot be scum together at the very least- and that much I can agree with. The only reason I exclude Oka is because Maf placed a vote on Oka that stayed lone as well.

[OkaPoka]

what is with this idea that mafmen and manatee can't be on the same team?

[Oath]

what is with this idea that mafmen and manatee can't be on the same team?

My reads have always been SvT on MafvManatee and my Maf scumread had more to do with the wagons that he and Invis were on together. Invis flipping green sort of pushed me away from Mafscum because I don't see it without Invis.

I can't speak for anyone else.

[OkaPoka]

what about the point of the game where mafmen was blatantly whiteknighting/defending manatee?

[Oath]

Town defend scum, scum defend town, scum defend scum, town defend town.

NAI.

It's between you, Manatee, or Otter for me today- there isn't enough there for me to be CERTAIN Maf is gonna flip red and we don't have anything left. Is it possible? Sure. Do I feel like risking it when there are better options? No. Especially not until I hear from Manatee (and Otter) who was online and then left again?

[ManateeDude]

You didnt, just you would know in general

Reads on Oka and Otter since you're around now

Otter is null
Oka is towmlean

[LuckyOtter]

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.
--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--
So, if Maf is town and is hard townreading Manatee, by POE, I would have to be scum but he doesn't raise an eyebrow at me.
--
I need to revisit Maf and Invis again because Invis flipping town made me think Maf would also be town, but I'm feeling like Maf is just confirmed scum here.

[MafMen]

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.
--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--
So, if Maf is town and is hard townreading Manatee, by POE, I would have to be scum but he doesn't raise an eyebrow at me.
--
I need to revisit Maf and Invis again because Invis flipping town made me think Maf would also be town, but I'm feeling like Maf is just confirmed scum here.

How?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

it could be gl for all i know

[LuckyOtter]

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

[MafMen]

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Oath]

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.

Reads, PoE, and Probability.

There has to be at least two scum in

You
Maf
Manatee
Oka

You were the only one offline in that extended period EXCEPT Manatee (who has already placed a vote on Maf).
In that period we had Manatee's vote on Maf, MafMan's vote on Oka, then Maf's vote on Anti
I think we're all confident at this point that the entire scum team cannot be GL, Anti, Oka, or myself ( it's more likely that only one of these is scum)


If Manatee v Maf is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. If it were Oka/GL/Anti - they could have quicklynched.

You would 100% have to be apart of that scum team holding up the vote, at least one of them is confirmed town because there is NO VARIATION of a team that doesn't include you when we're looking for 3 scum in that scenario.

If Scum vs Town (either way) - it would leave 2 more scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. Removing Anti sorryz ain't happening, gg if I'm wrong. So 2 scum in Oka, GL, Otter.
Possible teams:
Manatee or Maf/ Oka/GL
Manatee or Maf/Oka/Otter
Manatee or Maf/GL/Otter
So you're at 66% probability - same with GL and Oka, except they don't have the first scenario against them.


Maf voted Oka (for all of 30 minutes, but GL, Oka, and myself were online- this doesn't acquit anyone because Oka was the target of that vote and thus no quicklynch was possible)

If Maf v Oka is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - and we talked about this- Anti isn't scum, the only option here is GL/Manatee/You -

again 100% chance IMO of scum in this scenario

and it's reasonable that no quicklynch occured due to your activity.
If Scum vs Town - it would leave 2 more scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - you know where I'm going here...
Possible teams:
Maf or Oka/ Manatee/GL
Maf or Oka/Manatee/You
Maf or Oka/GL/You
The same 66%.

THEN Maf v Anti (the current vote?) - we've all been online since, but activity does seem more staggered and less easy to orchestrate a quicklynch at this point and I can't clear anyone other than my reads

--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--

Now in post #534 you acquit GL, Anti, Oka, and Myself from comprising the scum team - on quickhammer basis, which I agree with but that is largely dependent on Manatee being town, because quicklynch by scum on townMaf (since scum wouldn't quicklynch scum) would only be possible with townManatee as that 4th vote- you basically conftown Manatee and Maf but then said you needed to go back over your Maf reads??? which brings me back to scenario #1- MANATEE AND MAF AS TOWN V TOWN IS 100% OTTERSCUM

The only possibility you have of not being scum is with at least one of them as scum,but you were so quick to acquit us which reads like scum eager to sheep the tone of the thread and slip up because you can't see town POV.

Now we have this terrible post:

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is practically a scumclaim

@ Maf Look at this list

Anti
GL
Oath
Oka

Otter
Manatee

- because they aren't scum right?
MafMan

IF YOU ARE TOWN you're saying the entire scum team is in Anti, GL, Oka, or me (Oath)... then why are you still alive? Who do you think is scum?

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

[LuckyOtter]

Fun. So Maf is definitely scum and scumclaimed, but you're voting me after a POE that is fraught with flawed premises (pointing them out shortly). Makes total sense.

Actually, it does make sense if you are his partner.

[Antihero]

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

hito shrug is for dismissing opinions

not arguing literally impossible things

[MafMen]

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

hito shrug is for dismissing opinions

not arguing literally impossible things

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

[MafMen]

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

hito shrug is for dismissing opinions

not arguing literally impossible things

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

mark one*

[LuckyOtter]

Breaking this up into two parts.

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.

Reads, PoE, and Probability.

There has to be at least two scum in

You
Maf
Manatee
Oka

This is false. There has to be at least one scum in this group. There could be two, but that does not have to be true.

You were the only one offline in that extended period EXCEPT Manatee (who has already placed a vote on Maf).
In that period we had Manatee's vote on Maf, MafMan's vote on Oka, then Maf's vote on Anti
I think we're all confident at this point that the entire scum team cannot be GL, Anti, Oka, or myself ( it's more likely that only one of these is scum)

Within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath} there is certainly not 3 scum, but there could be two. What makes you so certain there are not 2 scum in that group and instead there

has

to be 2 scum in the other group?

If Manatee v Maf is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. If it were Oka/GL/Anti - they could have quicklynched.

You would 100% have to be apart of that scum team holding up the vote, at least one of them is confirmed town because there is NO VARIATION of a team that doesn't include you when we're looking for 3 scum in that scenario.

No problems here from your POV. From anyone's POV there is no world in which all three of us are town, so from my POV one of Maf and Manatee is scum and I'm trying to decide between the two (or if they're both scum).

If Scum vs Town (either way) - it would leave 2 more scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. Removing Anti sorryz ain't happening, gg if I'm wrong. So 2 scum in Oka, GL, Otter.
Possible teams:
Manatee or Maf/ Oka/GL
Manatee or Maf/Oka/Otter
Manatee or Maf/GL/Otter
So you're at 66% probability - same with GL and Oka, except they don't have the first scenario against them.

And Maf is at

100% probability

!

Also, removing Anti from the equation entirely with no justification is bad, especially in lylo, and especially when you're relying on possible combos to make your case. Strong case for Anti as 3rd partner here.

Maf voted Oka (for all of 30 minutes, but GL, Oka, and myself were online- this doesn't acquit anyone because Oka was the target of that vote and thus no quicklynch was possible)

The only thing this does is confirm that the scumteam is not {GL, Oka, Oath}. If that's what you're saying here I agree.

If Maf v Oka is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - and we talked about this- Anti isn't scum, the only option here is GL/Manatee/You -

again 100% chance IMO of scum in this scenario

and it's reasonable that no quicklynch occured due to your activity.

Did we talk about this? The royal we, you mean, because not everyone is sold on Anti as town. So again, flawed premise, and looks like you're protecting Anti. Excluding Anti from the equation (again, with no justification), changes the probabilities

significantly

. You're removing a factor without justification, and also ignoring other results in your findings (i.e. in this scenario GL and Manatee are also 100% scum, so you should be concerned about them as well, especially Manatee) in order to support your narrative. The important point is no, this scenario does mean I am 100% scum.

If Scum vs Town - it would leave 2 more scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - you know where I'm going here...
Possible teams:
Maf or Oka/ Manatee/GL
Maf or Oka/Manatee/You
Maf or Oka/GL/You
The same 66%.

Again, leaving out Anti changes things significantly. Also puts Manatee and GL and 66%, so this doesn't make a better case against me than Manatee who is within the group of confirmed scum from your POV. That is, if you're deciding who among {Maf, Manatee, Otter} is scum, this scenario does literally nothing to help you conclude I am more likely scum than Manatee.

[LuckyOtter]

Deux.

THEN Maf v Anti (the current vote?) - we've all been online since, but activity does seem more staggered and less easy to orchestrate a quicklynch at this point and I can't clear anyone other than my reads

--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--

Now in post #534 you acquit GL, Anti, Oka, and Myself from comprising the scum team - on quickhammer basis, which I agree with but that is largely dependent on Manatee being town, because quicklynch by scum on townMaf (since scum wouldn't quicklynch scum) would only be possible with townManatee as that 4th vote- you basically conftown Manatee and Maf but then said you needed to go back over your Maf reads??? which brings me back to scenario #1- MANATEE AND MAF AS TOWN V TOWN IS 100% OTTERSCUM

This is all kinds of terrible.
1. “you basically conftown Manatee and Maf” –

No

. Precisely the opposite. Because there was no quickhammer, the town!Maf + town!Manatee world does not exist. One of them is scum. You are grossly misrepresenting my statements to fit your narrative.
2. What this means is that the scumteam cannot be comprised

entirely

within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath}, but could (and must) be comprised of at least one (maybe two) of you + one or both of Maf/Manatee.
3. I need to go back over my Maf reads because I need to decide between Maf and Manatee. It’s really not that hard to understand unless you are forcing a narrative in which I’m scum.

The only possibility you have of not being scum is with at least one of them as scum,but you were so quick to acquit us which reads like scum eager to sheep the tone of the thread and slip up because you can't see town POV.

Again, I am eliminating the possibility that the entire scumteam is within that group. Your “slip” is entirely fabricated (see previous point). Also, what do you mean I can’t see town POV? That makes no sense here.

Now we have this terrible post:

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is practically a scumclaim

@ Maf Look at this list

Anti
GL
Oath
Oka

Otter
Manatee

- because they aren't scum right?
MafMan

IF YOU ARE TOWN you're saying the entire scum team is in Anti, GL, Oka, or me (Oath)... then why are you still alive? Who do you think is scum?

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

And again, you see this from Maf, call it a scumclaim, call maf “definitely scum,” but then revert to your flawed probabilities and slip narrative to vote me instead, presumably because you think it is not possible that Maf and Manatee are both scum with someone else. But why is that?

This is also based on the flawed premise that two of the three of us must be scum. But earlier you had Oka in this basket (your very first point in your post) as well. You were also entertaining the idea earlier that GL and Oka might be scum together, in which case there are still several possible worlds in which I am not scum. Given all of that, what makes me the better vote over Maf, who, in your own words, just scumclaimed?

[LuckyOtter]

I think we lynch Maf today and Oath tomorrow.

Anti, what's your actual stance on Maf right now?

[OkaPoka]

Why are we basing so much on the premise that a quicklynched what have happened? Now we are assuming that first the scumteam are playing optimally and second the scumteam are all robots that coordinated this.

But yeah lets lynch maf today, whatever helps that helps. I'm not sold on an Oath lynch purely going off of scumreads tho. Her reasoning is faulty and dangerously presumptive but I don't see scum trying to gamesolve this hard. But I really dislike the fact that she is trying to bring statistics into a game thats entering lylo instead of scumreading.

But I still think the team is mafmen/manatee/thirdperson(who rn im going to put antihero)

[OkaPoka]

Why are we basing so much on the premise that a quicklynch would have happened*

[OkaPoka]

lucky is town

[LuckyOtter]

Why are we basing so much on the premise that a quicklynched what have happened? Now we are assuming that first the scumteam are playing optimally and second the scumteam are all robots that coordinated this.

It's lylo, so to believe in a world in which the entire scumteam is within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka}, I have to believe that the scum saw that they were all online and active, saw they had a chance to end and win the game (since Manatee wasn't around to switch his vote), and they went, "nah let's drag this out some more." The only way I believe the scumteam is all in there is if there is a chance all three were too scared to get the ball rolling. It's not impossible but it seems highly improbable.

But yeah lets lynch maf today, whatever helps that helps. I'm not sold on an Oath lynch purely going off of scumreads tho. Her reasoning is faulty and dangerously presumptive but I don't see scum trying to gamesolve this hard.

Sure they would try to gamesolve. In a Maf+Oath scumteam, Oath has to figure out a way for her and her partner to survive past the almost inevitable Maf lynch. The next day is the endgame vote, so stakes are high. She's got to sell a story that secures a mislynch, and the more work you put into it, the more likely people will buy it.