Micro 814: Geriatric Trio (Mafia Victory!!!)

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Vote: Invisibility

Sounds like you're trying to stay out of sight.

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Vote: Oath

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I voted because I agreed with MoI's point and wanted to see how Oath would respond. I mostly liked her responses so unvoting for now while I look at the rest of the posts.

Unvote

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And...?

Sorry, I had to break off from this last night and haven't been able to think about it today. I'll definitely get to it tomorrow.

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@ Oath and Cheesy: Are you suggesting (in 22 and 24), that RC should have put Oath to L-1? And in Oath's 26 that hito should have done it?

@ nonny: In 31 you imply that Cheesy should have done the same. Why would you want a wagon at L-1 at this stage of the game?

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This was the part I was focusing on. Not saying he had to vote for Oath. He was telling others to vote for someone else. He happened to already be parked there from RVS. Either, he didn't believe in the Oath wagon like the claimed in that very same post, or he was trying to split the town between to wagons while supporting both.

Post 24 doesn't read to me like Cheesy was scumreading Oath much, if at all. Just that he could understand the wagon on him. So it makes sense for him to vote someone else.

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I wasn't suggesting that hito should have done it, I wanted to know hito's personal reasoning for not doing it- none of which was L-1 avoidance driven. Which really isn't a risk Day 1 with this activity, who's quickhammering Day 1 with no info and not immediately getting lynched the next day phase? If we allowed that this game is a bust anyway.

In theory yes; but in practise a quickhammerer rarely gets lynched straight away.

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In post 48, I asked a question to you specifically and also whether it's a good idea to put somebody at L-1 in the early game, which seems like something you have an opinion on considering this post, so why didn't you answer my questions?

I put off answering that because I wanted to get replies to my questions in 54 before doing so, in case my comments affected the responses to that. Re: Oath; it was mainly a gut feeling. Re: L-1; no it's not good to put someone at L-1 in early game because of the risk of an accidental - or intentional - early hammer before they have a chance to claim.

Music box, do you find Oath, cheesy, and nonny scummy for believing L-1 votes should have been made?

None of them actually said they believed that. I was asking them to clarify what they did mean. Happy with Oath's response, but still think that nonny saying that cheesy should have continued the wagon sort of implies it.

Music Box, vote in your next post.

I'll vote when I'm ready, which I'm not yet.

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This was the part I was focusing on. Not saying he had to vote for Oath. He was telling others to vote for someone else. He happened to already be parked there from RVS. Either, he didn't believe in the Oath wagon like the claimed in that very same post, or he was trying to split the town between to wagons while supporting both.

Post 24 doesn't read to me like Cheesy was scumreading Oath much, if at all. Just that he could understand the wagon on him. So it makes sense for him to vote someone else.

RE:Oath: His wagon's justified, Music Box and Invisibility should be commended for helping it unfold. Meanwhile, I find Coyote's reaction really weird. Instead of pushing the wagon forwards, in hopes of getting a strong reaction- especially that he agrees with the reasoning- he's voting Invisibility?

Maybe I'm naive but stating a wagon is justified implies some scum read. Why would a wagon be justified on someone you town read? Again, it stood out as odd to support a wagon and push a new one at the same time. Its an odd juxtaposition.

It looks like you're ignoring the rest of post 24 where he queries whether what Oath did was actually scummy. And in the part you quoted above - why would he find RC's action "really weird" if he was doing the exactly the same thing himself? He also says "especially that he agrees with the reasoning", which I took as meaning that he himself didn't but had just acknowledged that reasoning had been given for the wagon.

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I don't think I'm ignoring it MusicBox. My first statement on the matter was that the post was weird, which it is. Are you treating it as stream of consciousness? Because I think that what it's meant to appear as, but even then why wouldn't you clean it up before actually posting it? Saying the first wagon is justified at the least is buddying, but again why would you say a wagon is justified that you don't feel is legitimate?
And yes, he did do the same thing as RC while calling him on it, he can try to paint it differently but they do look similar, I noticed that when skim back through the other day.

No, I was treating the post as a whole. I read "justified" as meaning that he understood why MoI voted, and why the wagon grew, not necessarily that he thought Oath was scummy, and from the rest of the post it looked like he didn't.

What I don't get is why you are so focused on this? What do you feel you've found from this interaction of tearing apart a post(sentence) based on a player who isn't even in game anymore?

This isn't about Cheesy; it's about you and your motivation for saying what you said.

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-----Pretty sure I remember from my catchup typing out a question about what you liked about Oath's response, saw someone else ask, and deleted my own question. But I don't see an answer from you so either you failed to answer or I'm misremembering. Either way, I'd like to know. What did you like about it?

I replied earlier that it was mostly a gut feeling but I'll expand that. The wagon didn't bother her and she used it to scumhunt. Some of what she said resonated with me, eg 32.

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@ Oath: If you are town, please unvote yourself. By self voting you're reducing the info we can get later by looking back at the wagons.


No strong scum reads yet but nonny and Komola are the most likely ones so far. Nonny is a gut read - I just think something is off there. I'll say more about Komola later this evening or tomorrow.

Vote: nonny

I'm not keen on any of the other wagons but if it comes down to choosing between them then I'd be voting RC.

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What do you think of Oath's recent posting? Specifically claiming VT before anyone gave intent to hammer and then the self vote?

I didn't like the claim but I know that some people think that L-1 is the right time to claim and I get her point about not wanting a PR to be outed, but I didn't like the request for someone to hammer, or the self vote. It's possible that it was a ploy to get the votes off her but I don't get that feeling that's the case here.

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Why RC? Why not Invisibility?

Because I think RC was scummier than Invisibility.

Please elaborate on how you think Oath used that wagon to scum-hunt. I’d like clarity on what you see because I don’t see … really anything being done from that slot to sort her wagon.

I was referring to post 22 where Oath used the wagon to start to sort four players and based her vote on RC's response to it.

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@ Mod: Re: the vote count in 139, you've missed my vote on nonny (118).

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Yeah, still ok with switching to the RC/NM slot.

I actually think it's a great benefit at this point for you to see me flip and see who initial pushed the lynch on weak reasoning and people who keep making this about me when you could be moving on.

If you see people doing this, why aren't you calling them out for it now, instead of leaving the rest of us to do it in Day 2?

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Vote: Not_Mafia

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Vote: nonny

Sticking with this for now as I haven't seen anything in the last few pages to change my mind on it.

Waiting for NM to actually say something and for CJ to catch up.

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I'm sort of your ideal candidate, aren't I? I explicitly had suspicions of nonny but then decided that I didn't think scum-nonny would get off Oath so publicly then get back on. If that didn't change your mind, then I'm probably the easiest vote to get for your wagon - all you have to do is convince me my change of mind wasn't warranted. Sell me on it.

It's not easy to sell you on something I'm not completely sold on myself. I would just as soon have voted NM but I didn't want to put him on L-1 with the day hardly started.

What do you mean by "get off Oath so publicly then get back on"? Nonny was never on Oath until 161, when Oath, NM and Invisibility had two votes each, and nonny chose to vote Oath instead of following up on her previous vote, which was apparently just for pressure? 161 gave me the feeling she was blaming Oath for the vote, knowing she was town, even though there were two other wagons she could have gone on instead.

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Like post 48 seems like a good summary from Komala.

This reminds me I never followed up on my promise to explain why I was scumreading Komala.

My suspicion of Music Box is starting to rise. This game is hardly a font of over-posting. But looking at his ISO there really is nothing there. I need to go back and look at the game we were partners in and review the Mafia PT to see if he ever acknowledged lurking while not under pressure as a viable strategy.

Was this followed up on? Not that I see, and can't be now

Why can't it be? The PT is public and can easily be found in the topics list on my profile. I can give you the link if you want.

Music box, do you find Oath, cheesy, and nonny scummy for believing L-1 votes should have been made?

In post 48, I asked a question to you specifically and also whether it's a good idea to put somebody at L-1 in the early game, which seems like something you have an opinion on considering this post, so why didn't you answer my questions?

I put off answering that because I wanted to get replies to my questions in 54 before doing so, in case my comments affected the responses to that. Re: Oath; it was mainly a gut feeling. Re: L-1; no it's not good to put someone at L-1 in early game because of the risk of an accidental - or intentional - early hammer before they have a chance to claim.

But, when do people claim outside of L-1 (obv besides CC)? How do you get to a claim without getting to L-1? (not advocating for L-1 or early L-1) This reasoning seems off.

Why do you want to get to a claim? Are you scumhunting, or PR hunting? We don't put people to L-1 because we want a claim; we put them there because we want to lynch them.

Music box: who else do you scumread? Who do you think is buddies? From re-read I really only see you tunneling on me, and it was from "gut"

Want to see more content from Ceej and N_M.

If you've reread my posts you will have seen who else I scumread, and also that I'm waiting to hear more from their replacements. I don't have any questions for them right now that haven't already been asked. I haven't really looked for buddies yet. And lol, no, that's not tunnelling.

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They shouldn't happen any other time, except for role specific reasons, or for mass claims.

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Vote: Not_Mafia

This is L-1.

He's using his reputation to avoid explaining himself.

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@ nonny:

Did you finish your reread? What are your current reads?

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@ hito: My scumread on cj is based on Komala's posts. Cj has at least explained his thoughts a bit which is why he's dropped behind NM and nonny in my reads.

NM is being exasperating but I think there is more than that to his refusal to communicate. I think it's camouflage.

KMD does seem to be pushing Invis some but I don't get a scum feeling from Invis myself, or from KMD.

The reason why hardly anyone is looking at you is that you are coming across strongly as town. The only thing I have against you really is a couple of doubts MoI raised about you before he was nk'd, but I don't know what they were based on, or whether they were just teasers, so I'm loth to act on them.

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So sell me on your votes in your next posts. Like I said, not_mafia voters have a bit of a special time with this, so instead you can have the alternative assignment of making the case that this broader wagonflow still makes sense with not_mafia scum. Take this seriously because the red names are sitting and really hoping you don't.

That's the problem. It doesn't make sense unless there's bussing going on, either mutual or one way. Without bussing nonny has more possible partners, so do Cj and Invis. But they would've known the heat was going to be on NM in Day 2 and planned accordingly, so we can't rule anything out.

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Can you explain what you mean more, please? Not sure I'm fully getting what you're trying to say.

I think I was half asleep when I wrote that. The "they" in the last sentence referred to the mafia. The gist of the whole thing is that mafia may have decided to sacrifice one of them to get the other read as town.

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Hi Michel!

Nonny is now

at L-1

by the way.


I'm giving

Intent to hammer

. Nonny, please claim in your next post.

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Pressed submit instead of preview there.

Meant to add:

@ Michel: If you want more time to catch up before the Day ends I can wait till tomorrow before I hammer.

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So what does musicbox have to say on Oath? There's post 118, where she asks Oath not to self vote but doesn't give an opinion on Oath's alignment. There's post 146, where upon being explicitly asked her opinion of Oath, she gives an answer that doesn't go strongly either way, but kind of implies that she doesn't really believe Oath's selfvoting is a scumgambit. And that's it really.

Prior to 118, I commented on Oath's posting at least three times, including in 117, immediately before 118. Why did you ignore that? I know I didn't actually use the word town, but I think the implication was pretty clear. In 146 I was replying to a specific question about the claim and self-vote.

So, who does she express suspicion of during day 1? She mentions Komala in post 118, saying that she'll explain more later that evening or the next morning. Where does she come back to that? In post 213, well into day 2, where she remembers that she never followed up on her promise to explain why she was scumreading Komala... And then proceeds not to explain why she was scumreading Komala.

Real life got in the way and later on it seemed less relevant, especially since Komala had been replaced so couldn't reply to it. My comment about it in 213 is me saying I disagreed with nonny about 48, not that I was going to follow up on it right then. Although I would've done if anyone asked me to.

As for NM, he's perfectly capable of being more cooperative than this. He was choosing not to. I can see scum motivation in that but I can't see any town motivation.

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VT, no message either.

Nonny next.

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I wish I had the time these days to do that! As far as I can see you're the only one who has put in that effort. In fact your last few posts seem more like a pre-emptive defence than anything else. Was hito right about you?

Can I have a response to my 303 please.

@ Mod: I have limited access for the next few days but I should still be able to post.

My battery is running out now so that's all for tonight.

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My initial thought upon seeing the hito nightkill was "so I'm supposed to be the mislynch for today". As I mentioned in 315, the nightkill does make me look suspicious. So of course I'm preemptively defending myself.

If that was the case I would've expected you to wait and see who tried to blame the nk on you, rather than go straight into defending yourself, but you didn't.

I was looking for comments regarding the Oath wagon, the claim, the self vote, and her general lynch viability. When you discuss Oath prior to #118, it seemed to me that you were discussing your reasons for unvoting in #36. Both #79 and #117 are replies to Nonny who asked you about #36. Given that you were explaining why you had certain feelings in the past (specifically the end of AVS, long before any of the relevant stuff happened), whereas I was looking for explanations for your feelings at that point in time, those posts simply didn't register as relevant.

But they were relevant, as they showed my thoughts on Oath, so I don't see why you're disregarding them?

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I still have limited access and haven't been able to go deeper into this yet. I want to go back over what both MoI and hito were saying and also cross check a few things from the last two pages, while looking at possible pairings, which I should be able to do over the next few days.

I don't like that Invis is still such a blank slate.

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so yeah scumteam is michel and musicboxoh wait i didnt mention my musicbox readi think music box is scum who's been coasting all game(i think thats how you use coasting correctly)also i have no idea if this makes sense as a scumteamoh yeah it kinda doesmusic box has a weird early scumread of komala that she never explains even after realizing that she hadn't explained itthen hardly mentions the slot ever again

The slot wasn't around very much after that until Michel took it over, (I did give my position on it in 252) but I don't like the way he is constructing cases based on what he says people might do, rather than what they are actually doing. His whole play toDay seems pre-planned.

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Music box: can you give us a solid date of when your limited access ends?

I'll be able to post every day from now on.

I know musicbox announced limited access, but I don’t like how vague it is. Feel like some effort would still be made to defend himself or atleast post reads instead of promises for content that have yet to be fulfilled

Defend myself against what? As for my reads, I still don't get any scum vibes from KMD or Invis, but I don't think my read on Invis is anywhere near strong enough to call him town yet. So he's third in line after you and Michel.

Invisibility has also been quick to vote all game and from what I’ve seen in other games typically votes almost with reckless abandon (no better way to describe it, I’m sure to him they make sense) . But no vote has come. Also, he could have easily voted musicbox since he was already under FoS.

Have you forgotten it's lylo? Why are you anxious for him to vote me? Are you hoping to get a quick hammer?

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Done my reread of MoI and hito and got nothing that I hadn't seen before from it. Basically I think hito was right about Michel which is probably why he was nk'd. More to the point, I can't see that any pairing of nonny, invis and KMD would benefit more by killing him than by leaving him alive, which means that only one of them is likely to be scum, with the other being Michel.

I'll take another look at the pairings this evening.

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Summary of possible pairings:

Actions speak louder than words so this is heavily based on actual votes.

KMD/Invis - unlikely due to voting and nka
KMD/Michel - works on voting and nka
KMD/nonny - unlikely due to voting and nka - I can't see nonny voting cheesy as she did on Day 1 when there were two other wagons available
Invis/Michel - works on voting grounds and on nka - the vote in 210 doesn't detract from this
Invis/nonny - works on voting grounds - the vote in 121 doesn't detract from this - but doesn't really work on nka
Michel/nonny - I think this one is less likely than some of the other pairings due to Michel's vote in 283

So based on my earlier reads it looked like Michel and nonny were the most likely to be scum individually, but based on the above I've got KMD/Michel and Invis/Michel as the most likely pairs.

Vote: Michel

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@ Michel: Re 378, I'll dig out some quotes to show what I meant.

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It was mainly in 330, 334 and 335, and part of 352.

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Vote: Invisibility

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Michel: Yes, I was reaching a lot there as I wanted to make my vote look stronger.

Just popped in now as I won't be able to get on again before deadline.

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Good game everyone! Thanks Ari for modding it!

Michel: Your nka was scarily good! Although I didn't see that breadcrumb, if it was one. Both kills were because they were dangerous players.

Apologies for my lack of posting over the last couple of weeks. I really didn't realise how restricted my access was going be.

Apart from that, it was a pleasure not having several new pages to read every day.

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Was there a dead thread for this game?