Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over

[Something_Smart]

I don't know what I expected, really.

[Something_Smart]

Why is this the most awkward set of intros ever.

Flubber, I spent a decent amount of time thinking about what the first gladiator pick might reveal about the scumteam... but this is the one pick that reveals nothing.

[Something_Smart]

I would have pushed very strongly for randomizing gladiator selections.

[Something_Smart]

Why not?
A calculated pick would reveal information, so I would have aimed to give away as little as possible.

[Something_Smart]

What tactics?

[Something_Smart]

He's saying that since you considered what each pick would point to, you'd have your own optimal gladiator pick, vs "pick at random"

It's like Rock Paper Scissors. Random IS optimal.

It's moot though, because I wasn't thinking about gladiator selections in this playerlist, only in general.

In particular, it would be difficult to balance the possibilities of picking someone you know and expect to make a bad choice and/or get mislynched, which could point to you, versus picking someone you don't know who could end up playing it very well (which could ALSO point to you if people who know this person would never pick them), and on top of that there's the option to self-select which has its own set of possible issues (you gain control, but you're fighting for your life from day one).

There's a lot potentially going on here, but it can't really be used now because everyone has the same relationship with Not_Mafia; they all know his reputation.

[Something_Smart]

How do you figure?

[Something_Smart]

Maybe "lying" isn't accurate, but "contradicting" isn't strong enough, because I would expect pre-meditated thoughts to be significantly more consonant.

What do you find incongruous about those posts?

[Something_Smart]

You can't have a single pick that makes your thoughts on the subject irrelevant while also saying you weren't thinking about individual picks

...I certainly can.

If I theorize that the gladiator pick relates to how scum view the person they picked, and everyone views Not_Mafia in the same way, then that pick makes my thoughts irrelevant.

[Something_Smart]

I think this means that NM is more likely to be town than scum.

This was already true.

You probably meant that it makes him more likely to be town than a random player, which I would agree with.

[Something_Smart]

nothing has happened

Are we reading the same game?

[Something_Smart]

Sorry for the sarcasm btw, that was a bit uncalled for.

I'd say that what happened between me and Flubber counts as something. Do you have an opinion? Do you think Flubber is justified in scumreading me?

[Something_Smart]

It's ok lol. I thought his reason for scumreading you was really flimsy so I wasn't interested in the exchange

Do you think it's an argument he actually believed, or do you think it looked like scum looking for something to push?

[Something_Smart]

That's an interesting take on it.

If you think he believes what he said, does that mean you think he's town?

[Something_Smart]

Well, who do you think he should challenge?

[Something_Smart]

Incorrect

Well, if you and Scioness are both town, then you're probably the higher EV lynch...

Are you gonna tell everyone why you challenged SS?

Don't say SS, it's confusing

[Something_Smart]

Yolo.

VOTE: Scioness Sajj

I'm still leaning on the fact that NM is likely town because he was picked.

Probably true, but at the same time it's dangerous to do this.

[Something_Smart]

Uh why? Because Scioness could be town?

And that, in a world where both NM and Scioness is town, you'd rather vote NM?

Because that logic is so easily manipulated.

[Something_Smart]

It is something he might do.

There's also a weird sort of Nash equilibrium where scum have to pick themselves some percentage of the time to avoid confirming the gladiators as town.

[Something_Smart]

I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely and the pick being NM makes it less likely to me.
@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly?

22% of the time, yes

[Something_Smart]

Why did you gladiator Not_Mafia?

[Something_Smart]

Oops.

Game kinda hit a rut.

[Something_Smart]

Gonna break the cover of my reads to say something smart is scum and we should probably gladiate them tomorrow.

Why?

[Something_Smart]

Happy scumday ZZZX.

Dunn's logic is solid (I similarly did not challenge ZZZX despite him being the obvious pick from my POV).

Still would like to hear from ZZZX before deciding how to proceed.

[Something_Smart]

Welp. I don't particularly think you are scum but I ain't so..

VOTE: Dunn

I have a gut feeling Dunn or ss is scum

Just pure gut thou I guess lol

...?

[Something_Smart]

Still would like to hear from ZZZX before deciding how to proceed.

What does this mean

It means, I wanted to see him give and explain a read or something.

[Something_Smart]

Explain it.

And don't say "he was the only one off the scumlynch."

[Something_Smart]

But you think I pick Dunn as gladiator day 3, knowing that if he gladiates me I almost certainly lose on the spot?

[Something_Smart]

Unfortunately, I do think you're probably town because you just argued yourself into an awful corner if you're scum.

Why do you townread Dunn?

[Something_Smart]

In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.

I don't see any bus warning signs but I also don't see anything that makes it unlikely.

[Something_Smart]

I don't really want you guys to lynch Mylo if it means you're just gonna have paranoia on me later.

I'm fairly confident Mylo is town at this point. So if we ARE both town, It's better for you to lynch me and promise not to lynch him than to lynch him and possibly lynch me later.

[Something_Smart]

His PoE argument is terrible if he's scum, since even if he lynches me he's gonna have his head on the block in a few days.

His argument for why he didn't pick your slot was based on the previous occupant, and he didn't even reconsider it when you replaced in. It makes me believe that he barely spent any time on it at all.

And the way he immediately turned around on me doesn't strike me as coming from a scum who just realized that he likely gladiated into suicide.

[Something_Smart]

Lols I honestly thought scum picked NM for the wifom. Oh poor me

What is this supposed to mean?

Clearly they did pick him for WIFOM.

[Something_Smart]

Well, now that you know he was scum, why do you think they DID pick him?

[Something_Smart]

Well, now that you know he was scum, why do you think they DID pick him?

Fer the wifom. Lols.

But a different kind.

It's the same kind of WIFOM.

The WIFOM is "would scum pick their own day 1?" The only thing that's different is the answer to that question.

[Something_Smart]

I'll be changing a rule to hopefully make the game more active:

Prod timers are reduced from 48 hours to 36 hours effective immediately.

How about instead you let the gladiated people vote... (Not this game, but in the future.)

[Something_Smart]

who to lynch today for starters.

What do you think?

VOTE: Something_Smart

I'm just paranoid of this guy for some reason.

Very lucid and eloquent. Truly, your powers of explanation are unmatched.

[Something_Smart]

From your point of view, that's a very weird thing to say while hammering...

[Something_Smart]

Yes. We should be discussing that endgame, because if CJ doesn't flip scum I'm expecting it to happen.

[Something_Smart]

Why would scum say that?

[Something_Smart]

That's not what a scumslip is. And I don't make posts by accident.

It seemed to me as though everyone agreed that you would be the next lynch. I didn't (and don't) find you particularly likely to flip scum, and it's much smarter to mentally prepare myself for the game continuing than to mentally prepare myself for the game ending.

I gladiated ceejay because I had felt some of his lines were scummy before and I didn't think he'd be good to have around much longer (even if I did townread him, I'd always be paranoid and he might ruin things with paranoia as well).

[Something_Smart]

Sure it is, if you're scum it's an accidental slip of your alignment. That's a scumslip.

If I were scum, that would still have been on purpose. Unless you're arguing that I didn't realize what I was typing, or that I didn't realize you were still alive?

I mean you're 1/2 the votes, if you're townreading me are you thinking of voting Flub?

Yes.

Who do you think is more likely to be scum based on your being chosen last game day?

I don't think that reveals anything; I hadn't really given reads on anyone alive.

[Something_Smart]

What? You're being weirdly pedantic about "scumslip". I think you

intentionally

posted about what you

thought

would happen without 100% thinking through how that revealed that you knew my alignment. Given that you're 1/2 of today's voters and you're not voting me, how exactly did you foresee my being the next lynch?

I didn't think much about it. But it seemed like everyone else who was alive on D4, including you, was in agreement that you should be the next lynch. (It certainly didn't seem like you were OPPOSED to it.)

You at least have to admit that your post shows some level of lack of thought. Imo that lack of thought shows that you're scum
I now think you're voting flub because dunn is more likely to vote me in lylo

Yes, of course it shows some level of lack of thought. But you've only given a reason why I might say that if I'm scum and just decided to not think at all about the implications of my words. (Something which I always try to do, in real life and in mafia.) I'm not going to claim that I thought I knew what was going to happen; I didn't completely townread you, and I didn't expect you to fight your lynch very hard, and I didn't expect either Dunn or Flubber to be keen on lynching anyone else. I'm also not going to say that I planned to stonewall and refuse to vote you under any circumstances.

I could just as soon argue that you're scum because you hammered, cutting off discussion, while saying that you wanted more discussion. You've admitted that that was due to lack of thought, and there's clearly scum motivation in wanting townies lynched faster rather than slower.

[Something_Smart]

Here's the thing.

I'm used to people getting lynched despite me townreading them. It happens all the time, and sometimes they flip scum.

So I don't put a ton of stock in my reads. That was why I imagined that my reads wouldn't actually affect what happened in the game, even though the game mechanics make it otherwise.

Me posting that was me starting to reverse my read on you. Before ceejay flipped I was mostly in agreement with the "kill everyone but Dunn/Flubber/S_S" plan. My reads are not as clear-cut as I often act, and this setup benefits not being completely clear about your reads, either.

If I'm being honest, I was being overly pessimistic by assuming both that you would be lynched and that you would flip town. Probably part of the reason that I said that was that the only way this game would get difficult-- or more importantly, get STRESSFUL, which is my biggest concern-- is if we reached that LYLO.

[Something_Smart]

pedit: SS is super contradictory here. "Everything I say is intentional." "I wasn't thinking about it." "I was sorta thinking about it, but my reads are bad so who knew if you were town." "I thought you were town but also thought you'd probably just die idk."

There is no contradiction in any of this.

I didn't think about the number of votes today. I thought about the fact that my statement implied I thought you were town. It was overly pessimistic as I was not as convinced you were town as I acted.

I thought you were possibly town, but I don't trust my reads extensively, and I also thought there was a decent chance the game would just be over that day.

I don't write down my thoughts, and they've clearly been changing more than a bit. (Maybe not clearly as I have been generally keeping my thoughts close to my chest, but they have.) If my thoughts seem jumbled, it's because they are.

[Something_Smart]

Why do you townread Dunn so hard?

[Something_Smart]

Mod: I will be V/LA from today until Monday.

Noted -BNL

[Something_Smart]

Back from V/LA.

I don't really remember how much of my reasoning I shared. But I townread Irrelephant for the same reason I townread Mylo; he showed significant support for a plan that would lose him the game if carried out.

And I don't think Flubber deserves much credit for challenging Not_Mafia, because Not_Mafia is someone who rarely gets near endgame as scum. (In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)

[Something_Smart]

Scum has a lot of controll over not getting their partner lynched

Clearly not...

[Something_Smart]

I townread Irrelephant for the same reason I townread Mylo; he showed significant support for a plan that would lose him the game if carried out.

I guess but I feel like half the game rolled over and said they wouldn't mind being lynched after the first scum lynch so they could be blending in with that

I don't think so? It mostly happened with me and Mylo after Mylo's bad challenge.

And Irrelephant wasn't even here for that part, so it would be an advanced move to blend in with something that wasn't even happening anymore.

I'm going to put this down. I should be around close to deadline if there's a good reason to change it.

VOTE: Flubber

[Something_Smart]

Please tell me you would just end the game if Irrelephant were scum...

[BNL]

Also happy birthday BNL

Thanks

[Something_Smart]

That's good for my nerves at least

I agree that this was an unlikely situation. From my point of view, Dunn orchestrated this situation completely. (Picking himself, and then challenging me.) That makes sense, since the one thing he was most confident about was that you suspected me over him.

[Something_Smart]

-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him

I'm not going to try to refute this entire thing, I'll just point out that this is true for Dunn as well (against ZZZX).

[Something_Smart]

Mylo, Mylo, ceejay, ceejay, Flubber, Irrelephant.

[Something_Smart]

Interesting. Why me?

I thought that scum-Dunn wouldn't make me gladiator (since if he wanted me and you gladiated he'd just pick you).

agree that this was an unlikely situation. From my point of view, Dunn orchestrated this situation completely. (Picking himself, and then challenging me.) That makes sense, since the one thing he was most confident about was that you suspected me over him.

Why wouldn't Dunn just make me the challenger?

Maybe because he thought you would mind-game it. I would never pick you as gladiator, so it might have been optimal for you to gladiate Dunn under the assumption that you only get made gladiator if he's scum. And if you do get made gladiator and challenge him, I almost definitely hang him.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it's a wifomy game. You can't really avoid arguments like that.

I think the key point of this game was Day 3, where Dunn was chosen as gladiator after saying he suspected me. This was after Not_Mafia was dead, so if I were scum and Dunn had chosen me, I would have almost certainly lost on the spot. Dunn himself pointed this out, which was the reason that both of us were left alone. That's really the only reason I didn't consider Dunn as scum; because if scum he essentially towncleared me for no reason by doing that. And that's a reason equally valid from an objective perspective-- if he were scum he would have just made things mechanically MUCH harder on himself.

This logic was valid right up until the dawn of this day, when Dunn essentially retracted his claim that I am clear from that pick. Since he is no longer calling me town for it, that objective reason why EVERYONE should have been townreading him was made invalid, since the motive in keeping me around when there is suspicion on me is very clearly EASIER for scum-Dunn if he does plan to eventually add me back to the lynchpool.

I am by no means saying that he would not have done this as town, but that was the only reason

I

kept him alive, at least. Now that it's invalid, it requires no assumptions of extraordinary play, gambiting, or guessing to assume that Dunn is scum; whereas, to assume that I'm scum still assumes that I gladiated into the only person who expressed a scumread on me, and a fairly decisive scumread at that, in the hope that he would get out-WIFOMed and target someone else. (Not to mention that Flubber was chosen D2 who had ALSO expressed some suspicion on me.)

Is there anything that you think makes Dunn towny?

[Something_Smart]

Fair.

Off the top of my head I don't remember. I think it might have been something that ceejay said that felt off.

[Something_Smart]

It might have been ceejay's naked Not_Mafia vote that made me nervous, but I think it's more likely that I reread Mylo and liked his stuff (like 210) a bit more.

[Something_Smart]

Anything else you can think of to clear things up for me more?

I mean, I won't pretend I remember the specific reason why.

I think I just reread their ISOs and decided I liked Mylo's more.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, I see.

Is there anything you want me to talk about more regarding what happened Day 3? I think what happened there, keeping in mind that Dunn challenged me today, gives you plenty of information. I don't know how well you know me, but I'm certainly not one to rely on major mind games, especially if I had to wait for someone else to point it out.

Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.

[Something_Smart]

I don't agree with the assumption that I would have seen Dunn as more likely to challenge you. He voted Flubber which at least showed some indication of townreading you, and he never really made his opinion on either of us clear.

And I definitely would not have trusted Dunn to gladiate who I expected him to, especially with what he pulled on day 3, and indeed it does seem right from town!Dunn's perspective to gladiate me, since scum!you would never make him the challenger and risk having ME decide between you two after you just spent all that time calling me scum.

It seemed fairly clear that the most likely challenge would be between me and you, and as scum I would have trusted in my ability to out-argue you more than my ability to out-WIFOM Dunn. If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.

I don't know why he didn't pick you, but I can guess that he probably expected a quick win. (Which I do have to thank you for not giving to him.) It's just a question of, does he think you will scumread me more with no discussion or with discussion. And if the answer to that question is unclear, then it's equally good for him to make you the gladiator as it is for him to challenge me-- both will result in a win if you ultimately end up scumreading me.

It's definitely plausible that he could believe that you have more doubt than you let on, but that he can make a more convincing case than I can today and remove some of that doubt for when you vote.

That all make sense? Was just trying to get all my thoughts out, and if it got a bit jumbled I can definitely clarify.

[Something_Smart]

Exactly!

If I were scum, I would have thought about that already

[Something_Smart]

he can make a more convincing case than I can today

SS do you agree with this idea

Not sure. Ultimately it depends on what you consider convincing, I guess.

In terms of evidence, there is certainly a lot, mostly small things, that Dunnstral COULD point to, particularly vote-related since I'm very conservative with votes, something which becomes especially clear in a nightless setup where most people are very liberal with them.

I do know that, if I can get talking, I'm pretty good at getting myself correctly townread as town. And I have really one piece of evidence, which I think is huge but that Dunn might not have necessarily thought YOU would consider it so major. And I'm a proponent of the idea that a case should make itself; I shouldn't need to walk you through EVERYTHING because it's so easy to construct a narrative like that as scum. I've given you what should probably be enough to make you see what I do-- but if it's not, I'm happy to explain stuff more.

So whether my case is more convincing is going to depend on... what you are convinced by, really. I bet most people familiar with me would have identified me as town by now, and I'm sure there are some people who would have voted me without hesitation at daystart.

[Something_Smart]

So whether my case is more convincing is going to depend on... what you are convinced by, really. I bet most people familiar with me would have identified me as town by now, and I'm sure there are some people who would have voted me without hesitation at daystart.

I guess I got distracted and didn't quite finish my thought here. You are obviously neither, but I don't really know how much you understand my playstyle and way of thinking. If you understand it well, then I would expect my case to be very convincing; if not, then I would not be so optimistic.

[Something_Smart]

But SS's day play comes across much scummier

In what way?

[Something_Smart]

That's my playstyle. I've learned from experience that generally when I try to drive discussion, it ends badly.

And also... I realize it's WIFOM but I wouldn't ignore my partner like that, and I really do believe that Not_Mafia is prime bus material in an nightless game where low-content players rarely survive to endgame (so I probably would bus him, especially on day 2).

I did have bad feels around Dunn's Not_Mafia vote on day 1 for the same reason as I suspected Flubber-- Not_Mafia WAS a bad vote that day. And Dunn loves to distance like that (I can provide links if you'd like).

[Something_Smart]

Again, there is no reason for me to gladiate someone else [on day 3] and then say [S_S is] town if I'm mafia, it just makes my stuff harder

This actually makes up a decent part of my argument. This would be completely true... but he didn't persist with it. He said it made me town until he decided it didn't, and while that isn't something town wouldn't do, it certainly does not make his job harder as scum.

[Something_Smart]

Why did it seem clear the challenge would be between us?

It seemed clear that the challenge would MOST LIKELY be between us. Because you suspected me so heavily, it's the obvious conclusion of that. (If there were no gladiator and we just had votes, you would probably have voted me, at least given the situation that we were in at the end of day 6.)

Oops mobile I meant provide links here

First two things that come to mind: Space Mafia, where Dunn and Zach distanced very vocally from early on, and Surrealism, which I will admit was not as strong as I remember. I do know that Dunn and his partner Umlaut did distance a decent amount day 1, until Umlaut died at night.

The evidence from Surrealism is definitely weaker than I remember, but Space is a good example of Dunn bussing hard from early on. Another thing that just came to mind was this game, which Dunn wasn't in but Not_Mafia was and he was totally fine with being hardbussed early on.

[Something_Smart]

Maybe not. But clearly, if you didn't like to hardbus, you wouldn't have hardbussed there. You wouldn't go into a scumgame with your friend as your scumbuddy and do something you don't like to do.

What is your description of how you currently feel about bussing?

[Something_Smart]

And for the record, you told Nos to bus you in that game as well.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, you admitted when you voted him that his challenge was dumb. It's fair to say that you could have thought that regardless of your alignment, and it's definitely reasonable to say that there were few scenarios where he was going to live to endgame.

Also, Not_Mafia would definitely have given you permission to bus him from early on. It's clear from the fact that he was picked that his team was okay with him receiving attention from the beginning.

And by the way, Irrelephant, do you think I would agree to that plan and then proceed to do absolutely NOTHING with it? I mentioned in passing that I thought he was town but I really didn't try to get anything out of that. In a me/Not_Mafia world, do you not think either he or I would try to achieve something based on him getting selected? (For sure we would if the gladiator selection was not random... and even if it was, I can tell you I would have tried to take advantage of it, and probably by bussing Not_Mafia on day 2 or just getting him to challenge me day 1. Especially after Flubber recommended he challenge me, that would have been a great gambit.)

[Something_Smart]

I'm here.

[Something_Smart]

ZZZX and I were the only ones who didn't vote Not_Mafia on day 2, and in my mind it seemed likely that one of us would be the gladiator's target the next day.

[Something_Smart]

And as an extension of that, I figured that scum-ZZZX would not want me and him to be gladiated immediately, because he would either lose or remain as the only player who didn't vote Not_Mafia. That's why I thought that scum-ZZZX would not make me the gladiator.

[Something_Smart]

[Something_Smart]

But I also should have known from other games I've played that self-contradiction is almost always town

Yeah this a valuable lesson. If I were scum I'd have known exactly what I would think as scum

Though... you're not wrong about me having to come up with reasons to scumread Dunn, because some of his decisions did not make a lot of sense even when I knew he was scum.

[Something_Smart]

I think the setup is fairly scumsided due to the huge amount of control scum have, but I might play it again. I agree that this game suffered from a lack of discussion but the major restriction on voting probably contributed to that.

BNL, I saw you say in the dead thread that allowing gladiated people to vote would make no difference because they would always vote each other, but that's not necessarily true because in the me versus Mylo case both of us were close to advocating self-lynching, and the chance for a self-vote would have maybe sped the game up or made it more interesting at least.

[Something_Smart]

There's no positive feedback... if town lynches one scum, it becomes way harder to lynch scum because a higher proportion of players are town. I'm opposed to the vengekill because I don't think the game just reduces to 7:2 nightless. If every player agreed on every read, then it would, but either (a) people are quiet about their reads and it's fairly likely that, due to the lack of communication, the town's collective biggest suspect is not in the arena (and they might not ever figure it out since people will only give their reads on those who ARE in the arena), or (b) people are open about their reads and the scum can fairly easily keep scum out of the arena.