Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over
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It's like Rock Paper Scissors. Random IS optimal.In post 24, Dunnstral wrote:He's saying that since you considered what each pick would point to, you'd have your own optimal gladiator pick, vs "pick at random"
It's moot though, because I wasn't thinking about gladiator selections in this playerlist, only in general.
In particular, it would be difficult to balance the possibilities of picking someone you know and expect to make a bad choice and/or get mislynched, which could point to you, versus picking someone you don't know who could end up playing it very well (which could ALSO point to you if people who know this person would never pick them), and on top of that there's the option to self-select which has its own set of possible issues (you gain control, but you're fighting for your life from day one).
There's a lot potentially going on here, but it can't really be used now because everyone has the same relationship with Not_Mafia; they all know his reputation.-
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What do you find incongruous about those posts?In post 39, Flubbernugget wrote:Maybe "lying" isn't accurate, but "contradicting" isn't strong enough, because I would expect pre-meditated thoughts to be significantly more consonant.-
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...I certainly can.In post 53, Flubbernugget wrote:You can't have a single pick that makes your thoughts on the subject irrelevant while also saying you weren't thinking about individual picks
If I theorize that the gladiator pick relates to how scum view the person they picked, and everyone views Not_Mafia in the same way, then that pick makes my thoughts irrelevant.-
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This was already true.In post 55, ceejayvinoya wrote:I think this means that NM is more likely to be town than scum.
You probably meant that it makes him more likely to be town than a random player, which I would agree with.-
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Are we reading the same game?In post 64, BlackStar wrote:nothing has happened-
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Do you think it's an argument he actually believed, or do you think it looked like scum looking for something to push?In post 69, BlackStar wrote:It's ok lol. I thought his reason for scumreading you was really flimsy so I wasn't interested in the exchange-
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Well, if you and Scioness are both town, then you're probably the higher EV lynch...In post 108, Not_Mafia wrote:Incorrect
Don't say SS, it's confusingIn post 110, BlackStar wrote:Are you gonna tell everyone why you challenged SS?-
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Probably true, but at the same time it's dangerous to do this.In post 134, ceejayvinoya wrote:Yolo.
VOTE: Scioness Sajj
I'm still leaning on the fact that NM is likely town because he was picked.-
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Because that logic is so easily manipulated.In post 136, ceejayvinoya wrote:Uh why? Because Scioness could be town?
And that, in a world where both NM and Scioness is town, you'd rather vote NM?-
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22% of the time, yesIn post 168, ceejayvinoya wrote:I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely and the pick being NM makes it less likely to me.
@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly?-
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Why?In post 215, Dunnstral wrote:Gonna break the cover of my reads to say something smart is scum and we should probably gladiate them tomorrow.-
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...?
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It means, I wanted to see him give and explain a read or something.In post 247, Dunnstral wrote:
What does this meanIn post 236, Something_Smart wrote:Still would like to hear from ZZZX before deciding how to proceed.-
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His PoE argument is terrible if he's scum, since even if he lynches me he's gonna have his head on the block in a few days.
His argument for why he didn't pick your slot was based on the previous occupant, and he didn't even reconsider it when you replaced in. It makes me believe that he barely spent any time on it at all.
And the way he immediately turned around on me doesn't strike me as coming from a scum who just realized that he likely gladiated into suicide.-
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What is this supposed to mean?In post 291, ceejayvinoya wrote:Lols I honestly thought scum picked NM for the wifom. Oh poor me
Clearly they did pick him for WIFOM.-
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It's the same kind of WIFOM.In post 310, ceejayvinoya wrote:
Fer the wifom. Lols.In post 306, Something_Smart wrote:Well, now that you know he was scum, why do you think they DID pick him?
But a different kind.
The WIFOM is "would scum pick their own day 1?" The only thing that's different is the answer to that question.-
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How about instead you let the gladiated people vote... (Not this game, but in the future.)In post 321, BNL wrote:I'll be changing a rule to hopefully make the game more active:
Prod timers are reduced from 48 hours to 36 hours effective immediately.-
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Very lucid and eloquent. Truly, your powers of explanation are unmatched.In post 336, ceejayvinoya wrote:
VOTE: Something_SmartIn post 329, Dunnstral wrote:
What do you think?In post 327, ceejayvinoya wrote:who to lynch today for starters.
I'm just paranoid of this guy for some reason.-
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That's not what a scumslip is. And I don't make posts by accident.
It seemed to me as though everyone agreed that you would be the next lynch. I didn't (and don't) find you particularly likely to flip scum, and it's much smarter to mentally prepare myself for the game continuing than to mentally prepare myself for the game ending.
I gladiated ceejay because I had felt some of his lines were scummy before and I didn't think he'd be good to have around much longer (even if I did townread him, I'd always be paranoid and he might ruin things with paranoia as well).-
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If I were scum, that would still have been on purpose. Unless you're arguing that I didn't realize what I was typing, or that I didn't realize you were still alive?In post 371, Irrelephant11 wrote:Sure it is, if you're scum it's an accidental slip of your alignment. That's a scumslip.
Yes.I mean you're 1/2 the votes, if you're townreading me are you thinking of voting Flub?
I don't think that reveals anything; I hadn't really given reads on anyone alive.Who do you think is more likely to be scum based on your being chosen last game day?-
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I didn't think much about it. But it seemed like everyone else who was alive on D4, including you, was in agreement that you should be the next lynch. (It certainly didn't seem like you were OPPOSED to it.)In post 373, Irrelephant11 wrote:What? You're being weirdly pedantic about "scumslip". I think youintentionallyposted about what youthoughtwould happen without 100% thinking through how that revealed that you knew my alignment. Given that you're 1/2 of today's voters and you're not voting me, how exactly did you foresee my being the next lynch?
Yes, of course it shows some level of lack of thought. But you've only given a reason why I might say that if I'm scum and just decided to not think at all about the implications of my words. (Something which I always try to do, in real life and in mafia.) I'm not going to claim that I thought I knew what was going to happen; I didn't completely townread you, and I didn't expect you to fight your lynch very hard, and I didn't expect either Dunn or Flubber to be keen on lynching anyone else. I'm also not going to say that I planned to stonewall and refuse to vote you under any circumstances.You at least have to admit that your post shows some level of lack of thought. Imo that lack of thought shows that you're scum
I now think you're voting flub because dunn is more likely to vote me in lylo
I could just as soon argue that you're scum because you hammered, cutting off discussion, while saying that you wanted more discussion. You've admitted that that was due to lack of thought, and there's clearly scum motivation in wanting townies lynched faster rather than slower.-
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Here's the thing.
I'm used to people getting lynched despite me townreading them. It happens all the time, and sometimes they flip scum.
So I don't put a ton of stock in my reads. That was why I imagined that my reads wouldn't actually affect what happened in the game, even though the game mechanics make it otherwise.
Me posting that was me starting to reverse my read on you. Before ceejay flipped I was mostly in agreement with the "kill everyone but Dunn/Flubber/S_S" plan. My reads are not as clear-cut as I often act, and this setup benefits not being completely clear about your reads, either.
If I'm being honest, I was being overly pessimistic by assuming both that you would be lynched and that you would flip town. Probably part of the reason that I said that was that the only way this game would get difficult-- or more importantly, get STRESSFUL, which is my biggest concern-- is if we reached that LYLO.-
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There is no contradiction in any of this.In post 380, Irrelephant11 wrote:pedit: SS is super contradictory here. "Everything I say is intentional." "I wasn't thinking about it." "I was sorta thinking about it, but my reads are bad so who knew if you were town." "I thought you were town but also thought you'd probably just die idk."
I didn't think about the number of votes today. I thought about the fact that my statement implied I thought you were town. It was overly pessimistic as I was not as convinced you were town as I acted.
I thought you were possibly town, but I don't trust my reads extensively, and I also thought there was a decent chance the game would just be over that day.
I don't write down my thoughts, and they've clearly been changing more than a bit. (Maybe not clearly as I have been generally keeping my thoughts close to my chest, but they have.) If my thoughts seem jumbled, it's because they are.-
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Back from V/LA.
I don't really remember how much of my reasoning I shared. But I townread Irrelephant for the same reason I townread Mylo; he showed significant support for a plan that would lose him the game if carried out.
And I don't think Flubber deserves much credit for challenging Not_Mafia, because Not_Mafia is someone who rarely gets near endgame as scum. (In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)-
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Clearly not...In post 417, Flubbernugget wrote:Scum has a lot of controll over not getting their partner lynched-
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I don't think so? It mostly happened with me and Mylo after Mylo's bad challenge.In post 426, Dunnstral wrote:
I guess but I feel like half the game rolled over and said they wouldn't mind being lynched after the first scum lynch so they could be blending in with thatIn post 416, Something_Smart wrote:I townread Irrelephant for the same reason I townread Mylo; he showed significant support for a plan that would lose him the game if carried out.
And Irrelephant wasn't even here for that part, so it would be an advanced move to blend in with something that wasn't even happening anymore.
I'm going to put this down. I should be around close to deadline if there's a good reason to change it.
VOTE: Flubber-
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I'm not going to try to refute this entire thing, I'll just point out that this is true for Dunn as well (against ZZZX).In post 438, Dunnstral wrote:-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him-
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I thought that scum-Dunn wouldn't make me gladiator (since if he wanted me and you gladiated he'd just pick you).In post 443, Irrelephant11 wrote:Interesting. Why me?
Maybe because he thought you would mind-game it. I would never pick you as gladiator, so it might have been optimal for you to gladiate Dunn under the assumption that you only get made gladiator if he's scum. And if you do get made gladiator and challenge him, I almost definitely hang him.In post 445, Irrelephant11 wrote:
Why wouldn't Dunn just make me the challenger?In post 439, Something_Smart wrote:agree that this was an unlikely situation. From my point of view, Dunn orchestrated this situation completely. (Picking himself, and then challenging me.) That makes sense, since the one thing he was most confident about was that you suspected me over him.-
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I mean, it's a wifomy game. You can't really avoid arguments like that.
I think the key point of this game was Day 3, where Dunn was chosen as gladiator after saying he suspected me. This was after Not_Mafia was dead, so if I were scum and Dunn had chosen me, I would have almost certainly lost on the spot. Dunn himself pointed this out, which was the reason that both of us were left alone. That's really the only reason I didn't consider Dunn as scum; because if scum he essentially towncleared me for no reason by doing that. And that's a reason equally valid from an objective perspective-- if he were scum he would have just made things mechanically MUCH harder on himself.
This logic was valid right up until the dawn of this day, when Dunn essentially retracted his claim that I am clear from that pick. Since he is no longer calling me town for it, that objective reason why EVERYONE should have been townreading him was made invalid, since the motive in keeping me around when there is suspicion on me is very clearly EASIER for scum-Dunn if he does plan to eventually add me back to the lynchpool.
I am by no means saying that he would not have done this as town, but that was the only reasonIkept him alive, at least. Now that it's invalid, it requires no assumptions of extraordinary play, gambiting, or guessing to assume that Dunn is scum; whereas, to assume that I'm scum still assumes that I gladiated into the only person who expressed a scumread on me, and a fairly decisive scumread at that, in the hope that he would get out-WIFOMed and target someone else. (Not to mention that Flubber was chosen D2 who had ALSO expressed some suspicion on me.)
Is there anything that you think makes Dunn towny?-
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I mean, I won't pretend I remember the specific reason why.In post 453, Irrelephant11 wrote:Anything else you can think of to clear things up for me more?
I think I just reread their ISOs and decided I liked Mylo's more.-
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Oh, I see.
Is there anything you want me to talk about more regarding what happened Day 3? I think what happened there, keeping in mind that Dunn challenged me today, gives you plenty of information. I don't know how well you know me, but I'm certainly not one to rely on major mind games, especially if I had to wait for someone else to point it out.
Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.-
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