Micro 814: Geriatric Trio (Mafia Victory!!!)

[Kmd4390]

VT and no message.

[MichelSableheart]

So the Hito kill wasn't the result of a rolecop then. And mafia doesn't want to fakeclaim.

I'll have to think further on the implications.

[MichelSableheart]

How likely do you all think it is that the term "hammerkeeper" in post #173 was interpreted as a crumb by the scumteam? Was there anything else that could have given away that hito was jailkeeper? "Hammerkeeper" is the only thing I can find, and there are a couple of scumpairings that I feel would only make the hito kill if they knew he was a powerrole.

[Aristophanes]

Do you guys want a fancy VC?
So far no votes, 3 to lynch
D3 Ends Aug 30/18 at like 11am or in (expired on 2018-08-30 11:00:00)

[Kmd4390]

I don't have time to look through hito's ISO (it's a lot of words). I'm working 16 hours again today and tomorrow. I could see hammerkeeper being crumb though. Problem is I don't have enough experience with this playerlist to know who would pick that up and who wouldn't.

[MichelSableheart]

The more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to rule out Nonny/invis scumteam.

The hito nightkill and lack of attack on me imply that scum was happy enough with the way things were going to believe that they didn't need hito's or my mislynch. With Nonny being under a lot of pressure yesterday, and invis being the default second suspect a Nonny/invis team could use the extra mislynch opportunity. For them, kmd would have been an ideal nightkill. Kmd was under no suspicion whatsoever, and was suspicious of Nonny. Given the game situation, they seem highly unlikely to kill hito.

I believe a Nonny/invis team would only kill hito over kmd if they were quite sure he was a jailkeeper. But "hammerkeeper" doesn't really seem a strong enough crumb to give that convidence. Besides, the crumb wasn't noticed day 1, when it would have been fresh in scums memory, or we would have seen hito die night 1. That implies that scum would only have noticed it by putting in the effort of actively looking for crumbs. Given what I've skimmed in his mafia PT's, invisibility doesn't seem the player to put in that effort. I don't think Nonny has any mafia topics in the completed game forums, so I can't check her, but it doesn't seem that likely.

Based on Open 670 I could see musicbox put in the effort to pick up on "hammerkeeper" as a crumb.

[Music Box]

I wish I had the time these days to do that! As far as I can see you're the only one who has put in that effort. In fact your last few posts seem more like a pre-emptive defence than anything else. Was hito right about you?

Can I have a response to my 303 please.

@ Mod: I have limited access for the next few days but I should still be able to post.

My battery is running out now so that's all for tonight.

[nonny]

How likely do you all think it is that the term "hammerkeeper" in post #173 was interpreted as a crumb by the scumteam? Was there anything else that could have given away that hito was jailkeeper? "Hammerkeeper" is the only thing I can find, and there are a couple of scumpairings that I feel would only make the hito kill if they knew he was a powerrole.

This “breadcrumb” feels like a stretch and only stands out if you are looking for it. I don’t think scum would only kill Hito due to thinking him a powerrole as you state. Hito was the most active townie which in of itself can be a threat to scum. But, he also had the most solid feeling scum reads. So we can’t discount he was right and a liability for scum. Which would be bad for you from his last few posts. I agree with kmd it seems like you are preemptively defending that conclusion.

[nonny]

Oops, my bad for not double checking. By KMD I meant musicbox.

[MichelSableheart]

My initial thought upon seeing the hito nightkill was "so I'm supposed to be the mislynch for today". As I mentioned in #315, the nightkill does make me look suspicious. So of course I'm preemptively defending myself.

The second thing I'm trying to do is figure out who is likely scum based on that nightkill, as certain scumpairings seem far more likely to make that nightkill then others. In trying to figure this out, I'm working from the knowledge that I'm town. You don't have that knowledge, so I completely agree that you should take into account the possibility that Hito was right regarding me.

That being said, please note that I didn't say that scum would only kill hito due to thinking him a powerrole. I said that certain scumpairings would only kill hito due to thinking him a powerrole.

To understand the difference, imagine for a moment that Nonny and invisibility are scum. In that situation, Nonny just barely escaped being lynched yesterday, mainly because hito came to her rescue. A nonny-invis pairing was named by several players as the most likely scumcombination. Given all that, Nonny+invis would love to keep hito alive. Hito was heavily tunneling me, and I had expressed suspicion of a Nonny-hito pairing. If Nonny+invis kill kmd, and keep both hito and me alive, they have the opportunity to leverage that tension into a mislynch. By killing hito instead, that mislynch potential evaporates, making lynches of Nonny and invis far more probable.

Now imagine for a moment that kmd and musicbox are scum. They would have been coasting through the game, never coming under serious suspicion. It doesn't matter much who they nightkill, as town is likely to mislynch anyway. However, if they want to keep both hito and me alive to make use of the mislynch tension, they would have to nightkill invisibility, a player who was generally suspected by the rest of the town. So the kmd+musicbox pairing might as well nightkill hito, a stronger player who is quite capable of changing his mind. They have the nonny + invisibility suspicions they can leverage for a mislynch, and the nightkill is going to put me in a worse light as well.

This leads me to the conclusion that a nonny+invis pairing would only nightkill hito if they found a breadcrumb, whereas a kmd+musicbox pairing would kill hito regardless of powerrole read. Eventually, I hope to be able to give such an estimate for all six pairings that are possible from my POV. Unfortunately, most of them aren't as obvious as the nonny+invis or kmd+musicbox pairings.

Can I have a response to my 303 please.

I was looking for comments regarding the Oath wagon, the claim, the self vote, and her general lynch viability. When you discuss Oath prior to #118, it seemed to me that you were discussing your reasons for unvoting in #36. Both #79 and #117 are replies to Nonny who asked you about #36. Given that you were explaining why you had certain feelings in the past (specifically the end of AVS, long before any of the relevant stuff happened), whereas I was looking for explanations for your feelings at that point in time, those posts simply didn't register as relevant.

[MichelSableheart]

@Ari: sorry for going so long without a post. I know the rules say to post once every 24 hours, but with literally nothing to respond to, I had hoped posting once every RL day would be good enough.

I have already explained why I feel a Nonny-invis pairing is highly unlikely given the Hito kill. In this post, I'll look at the other possible pairings in some more depth, as well as look at some individual players.

I think a Nonny-musicbox pairing is quite unlikely as well. That pairing has the same problem of Nonny being the default suspect, and has the kmd kill as an option to keep the tension between me and hito alive. Besides, I don't think musicbox would have been as willing to switch to Nonny at the end of day 2 if they're scumpartners. However, as I mentioned before, I could see musicbox spotting "hammerkeeper" by hito and interpret it as a crumb, so I'm not willing to completely rule out this possibility.

If the scumpartnership is musicbox-invisibility, their strategy throughout the game has been to lie low and let town implode on itself. Killing kmd, and leaving hito and me alive to fight it out, would work in that strategy. However, so would killing the only player who throughout day 2 had been trying to pull the town together. With Nonny being both my and kmd's top suspect yesterday, removing the hito-michel tension isn't that much of a problem. And there's the possibility of musicbox spotting the crumb. This pairing could easily make the hito kill.

Any pairing that has kmd in it and wants to keep both Hito and me alive is forced to make a poor nightkill. kmd-musicbox is never going to kill invisibility, as he was under general suspicion and not really doing much. A kmd-invisibility pair could make the case of nightkilling musicbox, as she wasn't under that much suspicion, but it's still not a great kill for them. kmd-nonny has the choice between the two, and would need the mislynch potential to protect Nonny, so out of the three pairings containing kmd, this pairing is the least likely to kill hito. Both musicbox and invisibility are poor nightkills even for them, though, so they still would end up killing Hito more often then not.

What has me wavering on kmd is that I still townread him, though. His posts do look like he's trying to figure the game out, and trying to contribute, with the main problem being severe lack of time. So despite the fact that the Hito kill would make the most sense coming from him, I'm reluctant to vote him.

I also don't want to vote Nonny today. The hito kill + lack of fakeclaim imply that scum is happy with the way things were going. Given that Nonny was the most likely lynch at that point, that implies mafia being happy with a Nonny lynch, i.e. Nonny being town. Add that both nonny-invis and nonny-musicbox pairings are unlikely, and Nonny becomes a bad lynch.

Given the choice between invisibility and musicbox, I'll likely vote music box, mostly because compared to invisibility, she's the more likely partner of either Nonny or kmd.

So consider this post intent to vote music box. If you believe there are very good reasons for me not to do so, please convince me.

[Kmd4390]

I'll look this game over tomorrow night.

[Music Box]

My initial thought upon seeing the hito nightkill was "so I'm supposed to be the mislynch for today". As I mentioned in 315, the nightkill does make me look suspicious. So of course I'm preemptively defending myself.

If that was the case I would've expected you to wait and see who tried to blame the nk on you, rather than go straight into defending yourself, but you didn't.

I was looking for comments regarding the Oath wagon, the claim, the self vote, and her general lynch viability. When you discuss Oath prior to #118, it seemed to me that you were discussing your reasons for unvoting in #36. Both #79 and #117 are replies to Nonny who asked you about #36. Given that you were explaining why you had certain feelings in the past (specifically the end of AVS, long before any of the relevant stuff happened), whereas I was looking for explanations for your feelings at that point in time, those posts simply didn't register as relevant.

But they were relevant, as they showed my thoughts on Oath, so I don't see why you're disregarding them?

[nonny]

Working in digesting the new information. Will probably re-read and do ISO’s based on the flips. Agree with first part of musicbox’s 337. Will post more tonight.

[Aristophanes]

Do you guys want a fancy VC?
So far no votes, 3 to lynch
D3 Ends Aug 30/18 at like 11am or in (expired on 2018-08-30 11:00:00)

Quoted to update the countdown.

Also, prodding Invisibility.
Good work to everyone else for posting before I could prod you!

[Invisibility]

hi

[nonny]

mod: Can you update post 1 playerlist pretty please? Think I know most of it but would be nice to see all in one place. Thanks

[Aristophanes]

mod: Can you update post 1 playerlist pretty please? Think I know most of it but would be nice to see all in one place. Thanks

I 100% forgot that was a thing a Mod is supposed to do.
It has now been updated!

[nonny]

mod: Can you update post 1 playerlist pretty please? Think I know most of it but would be nice to see all in one place. Thanks

I 100% forgot that was a thing a Mod is supposed to do.
It has now been updated!

Thanks!

(though ceejay is no longer in game )

Okay made it half way through a re-read and it became a chore. So going to try something different currently musicbox is fairly high on my scum list reading back to early game the contribution (in a low contribution game) was lacking at best and hyper focus on 1-2 things only. So I'm going to look at possible teams.

Michel/Komala and Musicbox: Does not seem quite so likely without some hardcore bussing coming from Michel on musicbox right now, which I guess in lylo is possible but it'd be easier to push for an easy mislynch.

KMD and musicbox: This actually hit me in the gut end of day 2 as being possible. They have almost no real interactions together except 3-4 "light" questions. Still Stand outs musicbox's continued hashing out of cheesy's only major post even after he'd left the game. KMD individually looks less likely to be scum going back to the unvote on the oath claim. Both of you were both heavy on my wagon yesterday (out of the players left) but haven't commented on it since or my hammer on N_M which even though seemed best course at the time I expected to get flack from, so the lack on comment is odd at this point.

Viz and musicbox: Possible but hard to say. Viz is playing like viz and not giving very much at all. Viz could you post a reads list please? (and not all town/null this time, please, unrealistic at this stage). Currently under most likely partner. In post 118 when musicbox states he's willing to vote RC with no reason why, then when asked simply stated "RC's scummier" in 148, this felt off then and in hindsight still feels off.
--->probably NAI but interesting to note they both random voted each other.

Now will look at other non musicbox pairings.

Though viz and anyone is almost possible due to his low content posting. The only players he's voted for that haven't been lynched/NK and confirmed town are music box (RVS) and ceejay/Michel (wagon). So I don't see a Viz and Michel pairing as likely. Looking at Viz and KMD does not seem likely either, KMD pokes at viz quite a bit and I don't see scum partner doing that, at least not that consistently.

KMD and Michel/komala: possible, interactions are minimal but KMD voices town read on Michel's spot repeatedly but not enough to push it into odd(this increases likelihood of buddies since it's just enough to not draw attention). Again Michel's recents posts of pairing musicbox and KMD means he's less likely to be partnered with either, in a lylo like this I don't see scum putting in the much effort to misdirect/bus.

I think that covers all the bases. In case it's not clear, which it may not be and probably looks more like rambling. My scum read teams are Music box and Viz or Music box and KMD in that order. Can delve in deeper tomorrow. We still have 6 days until deadline, I'm not confidant enough at this point to say I'd for sure vote on these reads, would like to see more interactions first.

[MichelSableheart]

My initial thought upon seeing the hito nightkill was "so I'm supposed to be the mislynch for today". As I mentioned in 315, the nightkill does make me look suspicious. So of course I'm preemptively defending myself.

If that was the case I would've expected you to wait and see who tried to blame the nk on you, rather than go straight into defending yourself, but you didn't.

The problem with that strategy is that attacking me wouldn't have been a scumtell.

The other townies don't know I'm pro-town, and the Hito kill does implicate me. I would expect pro-town players to also question me, so waiting to see who attacks me wouldn't really help.

I was looking for comments regarding the Oath wagon, the claim, the self vote, and her general lynch viability. When you discuss Oath prior to #118, it seemed to me that you were discussing your reasons for unvoting in #36. Both #79 and #117 are replies to Nonny who asked you about #36. Given that you were explaining why you had certain feelings in the past (specifically the end of AVS, long before any of the relevant stuff happened), whereas I was looking for explanations for your feelings at that point in time, those posts simply didn't register as relevant.

But they were relevant, as they showed my thoughts on Oath, so I don't see why you're disregarding them?

At the risk of repeating myself: the point is that they didn't show your thoughts on Oath, at least not your thoughts on Oath at the time of making those posts. There is a world of difference between "based on gut, I liked the responses Oath gave 80 posts ago" and "I currently believe Oath to be [town/scum] based on [reasons]". Especially when in those 80 posts a lot has happened that could influence your opinion on Oath.

Also, why the use of present tense in your question? I'm explaining why I didn't notice those posts when I made #289. I only became aware of them as opinions on Oath when you pointed them out to me in #303.

hi

Hi! I was hoping for a bit more from you.

@Nonny: for you, hammering NM was the obvious play regardless of alignment, so that didn't really seem worth commenting on for me. It was mostly Hito's L-1 which drew my attention yesterday.
Haven't got much to say on your analysis post; I mostly agree with your conclusions.

[Kmd4390]

Ok...

I've said this before, but let me do a little bit better a job showing why I believe so strongly in an Invisibility/nonny team.

VOTE: Oath

Wagons are nice in RVS

Oath (3): MagnaofIllusion 14, Music Box 16, Invisibility 17

I originally let this one go because Invisibility specifies RVS and I know some people play that way early on to get the game moving.

But then the wagon gets to L-1:

Oath (4): MagnaofIllusion 14, Invisibility 17, Komala 66, Kmd4390 85

Invisibility stays despite the only thing remotely close to a read on Oath was this:

this is gross but i also feels like Oath so idk

That was when I first noticed Invisibility's attitude appearing to be that it doesn't matter who is lynched.

I unvote and:

why did that prompt you to unvote?

That reads to me like "Uhhhh why can't I have this lynch?". Invisibility seems to want that lynch pretty badly for someone who hasn't said much about Oath actually being scum.

I'm not gonna bother quoting it but after that lynch fell apart, Invisibility gave that reads list with no scum reads and switched to not_mafia. Lynch on Oath goes through anyway.

Day 2, Invisibility opens with a vote on Not_Mafia, who votes nonny. Invisibility's response?

tell me about this my man

is this the next hot wagon?
VOTE: ceejay

nonny (2): Music Box 196, Not_Mafia 202
ceejayvinoya (2): hitogiroshi 208, invisibility 210

Remember that attitude of not caring who is lynched? It appears to have shifted to not caring who is lynched as long as it's not nonny. A vote on nonny would have put that wagon at three yet Invisibility called ceejay "the next hot wagon". Why not nonny? Or better yet, what was even scummy about ceejay in Invisibility's eyes?

Ceejay wagon stalls. Nonny drops to one vote. And...

Not_Mafia (3): ceejayvinoya 206, Invisibility 234, Music Box 236

Invisibility is back to Not_Mafia. I vote nonny and we get this:

hello
can somebody direct me to a case on nonny

That's twice now that nonny has been voted and twice that Invisibility has wanted to know why. Where is this interest in reasoning for the other people being voted?

Michel votes nonny, but Invisibility goes V/LA, stays on Not_Mafia without further comment. Not_Mafia gets lynched. Invisibility starts the day like this:

I don’t know who’s scum

As town, that's a problem you'd want to fix after being so horribly wrong all game. As scum, things are going great and all you have to do is wait and see who gets voted first. Tell me which of those that quote sounds most like. I've seen no effort since that post and no promise of effort to come. Deadline is under six days away.

Basically, this doesn't feel like town play. It feels like just trying to get any lynch through. But when nonny gets votes, Invisibilty suddenly wonders why instead of blindly jumping on like with Oath and Ceejay (I admit Invisibility was early to the Not_Mafia lynch, something I'd misremembered before this review).

I'm more sure of Invisibility than nonny so I'd prefer that Invisibility be the lynch today.

[nonny]

So do you scumread me independently of Invisibility? Can you see anyone else as partner with Invisibility?

[Kmd4390]

So do you scumread me independently of Invisibility?

Yes, but Invisibility is a stronger read.

Can you see anyone else as partner with Invisibility?

Could see Music Box. Not really Michel because of Invisibility's ceejay vote.

[nonny]

I can see Invisibility!scum as I posed before, not for same reasons but not sure how confidant I am in that read since the info is scarce to go on.

Could you reflect, KMD, on Michel and my posts regarding Music Box? Or are you still catching up and I’m interrupting?

[Kmd4390]

It's late and my eyes hurt, but all I'm seeing is Michel says based on past experience Music Box is someone who would put in effort to find a crumb, you say music box's early game lacked content, and there's some stuff saying music box and I make sense as a team. I've never played with Music Box so I don't have thoughts on the first thing. I agree with you that Music Box lacked content early on, but I don't see that as scummy. And obviously I know I'm town so associatives to myself don't do anything for me. Is there something I'm missing?