Micro 834 : Vanilla 8-Ball : Game Over

[Enter]

Some stuff:

1. End of day vote-counts
2. The way Jingle votes/interacts
3. Anything else I found particularly interesting.

Spoiler: End of day vote-counts

D1 Lynch:

pinturicchio

(5) : northsidegal, ceejayvinoya, Jingle, Irrelephant11, Gamma Emerald

i don't like how frozen angel hasn't put down a vote yet but given her specific acknowledgement and plan regarding that, that probably nullifies and scum value that might have otherwise been there

Alright gonna play some overwatch next time I catch up I'll make a vote. I'm just waiting to see people react to my posts and to have a little more to analyze first cause I have heavy doubts about my reads on few people

anyways, on another unrelated note, it occurs to me the anti-town nature of going too in-depth as to my reads.
VOTE: pintu

what is this reasoning

VOTE: pintu

VOTE: pint

I like this wagon marginally more. Want to hear Relly's reasoning on the Gemerald vote tho.

Following NSG, are we?

I expect more from you, NSG. You usually have good early reads, and you should know better. It's too early to vote you because of BoP, but continue pushing me and I'm telling my parents about you. Believe me, you don't want that. Spooky.

why are you town? what about your play this game is your towngame as opposed to your scumgame? if you're going to say that you expect better from me, i can't just be wrong, i have to be going off of poor reasoning. after all, just like i said to JJH in 728, if someone played to what seemed like a theoretical scumgame even if they were town, it would still be reasonable to vote that person.

are you serious about voting me because of burden of proof? you seem to already be taking it that i'm town, so that seems kind of a hollow threat. why do you townread me already? you said earlier that you don't really have experience with reading me and questioned irrelephant's read on me, but later said that "[nsg] felt town from the beginning". when did you start townreading me?

why do you think frozen angel would be at terrible vote?

Provides reads and you still don't back off. :/

anyways, on another unrelated note, it occurs to me the anti-town nature of going too in-depth as to my reads.

I think this is wrong. Or at least, incomplete.

I don't think we can scumhunt without making it obvious who we find suspicious, so trying to hide our suspects is counterproductive. I would agree that outing preflip associatives is antitown, and I'd agree that outright saying "X is my second strongest scumread" is probably bad, but just whether people fall on the town or scum side of null should be relatively safe without crippling our ability to hunt. Trying too hard to stop the nightkill and preventing our own ability to share reads and build trust isn't going to help anything, though.

you're still voting w/ her.

-shrug-

if you're town then it's not like my votes on you are stopping you from doing other things.

most people read me through activity and through my depth of thought.

he's done more for town than a lot of other people at this point in time.

Your push on him reads as : "stop reading too in-depth".

How is that a good reason to lynch someone, esp on d1?

if you still think I'm the scummiest player after all I have done at this point, you're as wrong as it gets, since there are at least 4 players who are active lurking.

you certainly implied it

I was never super townreading pintu (I was ~50% avoiding the wagon just so he'd talk more) and I have a really hard time picturing this as floundering town. VOTE: pintu

pedit: same
pedit2: I don't feel like you've done that much? You've made wild guesses as to how Gamma might play this as scum, townread me because..? and said that scum have to be among the active lurkers (occasionally it happens but I've also seen floundering scum say exactly this). Oh and you've made wild guesses as to the 8-ball, which tbf I speculated on, too, but it seems to be both central to your scumhunting process and completely inconsistent

Don't like this vote, but...

alright alright, I'll let you AtE me for a bit
UNVOTE:

is cj still your scummiest read?

eh it probably wouldn't be successful anyway, my gambits never are
VOTE: pintu

mostly just wanted to give time and space for scum to try to bus, but I don't know that I can manage it without being distracting

Irrelephant kinda reads as confused/frustrated town, I guess.

~~~~~~~~


Pint read p strong town to me. He seemed to be trying p hard, and there were people who were doing a lot less. => I didn't like this lynch => I don't particularly like people who are on it.
I do like that FA/PP isn't here, though.


========================================================

D2 Vote Count:

Gamma Emerald

(4) : Irrelephant11, Suka, PenguinPower, Jingle

GE and Pint read p town to me from the beginning, so this lynch also makes me feel crummy inside.

Eh I could maybe see Gamma’s hammer as a reluctant “I’d rather not be on the wagon but we need the mislynch” hammer
VOTE: Gamma
He hasn’t done much else that’s towny tbh
ISOIng him to find the posts I townread showed me how much he’s posted without advancing things much
Idk this might be a bad way to read Gamma

Ahhh but I want a lynch I think??
I have to go afk
I’m not that bothered by a no lynch and also okay with a Gamma lynch

This feels weird considering this:

Spoiler: gamma quotes I townread

so I could discuss my extensive scum strategies with my partner in crime =]

Ok so this was the only post connecting the unskipped night to talking with buddies
I feel like this joke could be made even with daychat and as such isn’t clearing
I would have cleared someone if they used serious spec based on that idea to accuse someone or make theories
Obv not doing that anymore as the thought process is out there

Busy as hell today, probably no real contribution til tomorrow.

Would like GE to elaborate on 144 and 145 if possible.

144: given Relly created he setup idea I’d believe any questions to be genuine. So they’re not playing dumb, making playing dumb not his plan. That was poorly written out earlier as I wrote it on the fly without fully sequencing the logic behind it.
145: Mafia has daychat, but some might not realize. I wanted to see if anyone tried to connect the long night to no daychat so I could give them townpoints. The only person to do it was Saudade, in a joke post which I feel scum could still make.

VOTE: pintu
Yeah.

Hm I think a good strategy to start each day is actually a soft read reset at the very least, since the mafia are likely to try to play into pre-existing prejudices

Nsg where you at

just frustrated about my mistake

Why so tilted?

Why do you need a lynch? You don't seem certain of your Gamma read and you can always wait a day. Picking No-lynch for 8-ball seems dumb. :/

I'll switch to Gamma if we can make that happen over me or Jingle.

Hm.

VOTE: Gamma

If Penguin votes, we just need Jingle.

Your scumread is Saud, but your last minute push is on Gamma?

VOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Gamma

Fingers crossed.

I don't like how quickly this lynch happened. I don't know what to make of it past that, we know one scum was on it, but past that I'm not sure.

and by lovely i mean "i really don't think gamma is scum"

Fingers crossed.

Wow...trash.

Unfortunate timing, nsg.

Or convenient timing, considering the possibilities of her alignment.

~~~~~~~

Overall the lynch was super fast and I didn't particularly like the little reasoning I saw for it, but I don't like NSG as town more than I don't like any of the others, so I guess I'm leaving that alone for now.

========================================================

D3 Votecount:

We got scum this day so I only really wanna look at two votes:

VOTE: jingle

There were two wagons at this point: Jingle, and Saud, w/ Saud being the only person not voting. Jingle and Saude were both at L-2. Saud isn't going to vote themselves, making Jingle the only viable lynch.

To put my shoes in the situation of NSG for a moment, she has two options: No lynch due to day end w/ no player reaching majority (if I understand the rules correctly), and lynch Jingle.
As town, a No lynch seems pretty viable especially since NSG thinks 8-ball is on Suka for some reason
As scum, knowing Jingle is scumbuddy and, based on GE lynch, town seems to be p eager to get a lynch in every day, Suka will likely skip to Jingle wagon and then it looks weird pushing a no -lynch if Jingle dies the next day, and also sorta weird if someone were to bring up the reluctant NSG hammer where the only reason Jingle isn't town is PoE (speaking of which, why did she not vote him then?)
I'll admit the case against NSG seems a bit stretch here, but based on her play this game in general, I don't like this vote.

VOTE: Jingle

Weird hammer after trying to deflect off Jingle all game.

========================================================

Spoiler: The way Jingle votes/interacts

========================================================

anyways

VOTE: frozen angel

Why?

process of elimination combined with thinking that, if i were to be wrong on any given scumread, FA would be the least likely to be the 8-ball

i don't think you, irrelephant or saudade are likely to be scum. (though, if i'm wrong i'm wrong on you or irrelephant first, and being wrong on one of you is likely a game losing read)

that leaves gamma, ceejay and FA. of the three, i feel like FA is the best vote

VOTE: Frozen Angel

I kind of think this is town, but I kind of agree that it's also the least likely slot to have been 8 balled. And I kind of think everyone is town at this point. Fuck. I don't even know. NSG, I'm trusting you.

um

so is the day still going to end with two people being replaced

Hi.

Kindly unvote me please.

UNVOTE:

Okay.

Shake up the thread please.

Well...that was quick.

No kidding.

Quick town reads on nsg and the elephant.

could lynch Gamma or Saudade.

This is a short game, so I'll read up in the morning.

UNVOTE:

penguin if you're town i would appreciate you showing it as soon as possible

Lol.
NSG: "Hey Jingle, let's see if we can push the 8-ball!" *Votes FA
Jingle: "Sounds good, what's our reasoning?"
NSG: "Idk, prolly that FA seems least likely to be 8-ball."
Jingle: "Seems fine. I'm giving you responsibility tho." *Votes FA
NSG: "Not publicly!"
Jingle: "My b." *Unvotes
NSG: "Wow you're jumpy. Guess this isn't happening now." *Unvotes

========================================================

Spoiler: Anything else I found particularly Interesting

I agree that Saudade/Gamma makes more sense than Saudade/Penguin, though.

I’ll vote {Suka, gamma, maybe Saudade}

Why won't you vote Penguin?

Suka's Explanation:

Some conclusions you refuse to come to that i think you should
A) Saudade/penguin is never a team
B) the only reason to vote off wagon is if you’re afraid of 8-ball - most players seem to think that you’d be the on-wagon 8-ball, though, so you least of all should be afraid of it

I never "refused" to come to these conclusions. "Refused" is the wrong word to describe what I've done.

A) I agreed with you when you brought the wagon dynamics to my attention. I wasn't thinking about them prior to that. But I clearly agreed with you that it's less likely that it's Saudade/Penguin than Saudade/Gamma.

B) I specifically asked for your explanation because I didn't understand it. I never refused the reasoning, though I am questioning you about it because I don't understand why you came to that conclusion. I also don't see why you're scumreading me for that conclusion when your other townreads voted off wagon (e.g. NSG voting FA). This isn't a fair basis to scumread me when your strongest townread seems to be doing it.

The penguin push seems super weird if you think saud is the guy that did it. I don't like any of this from you.

I'll switch to Gamma if we can make that happen over me or Jingle.

This should be looked at again after what jingle flipped.

TLDR:

NSG
votes by PoE
says reads on her are based on activity and depth of thought... both of which seem to be lacking in her posts
votes are weird as explained
Jingle follows NSG twice. at least.

looks scummy

Suka doesn't look great w/
what penguin just pointed out
jingle hammer given circumstances (reasons above)
deflecting votes off jingle


PP is town
votes are p contrary to jingle
lead a p hard push on jingle
other gut things, I guess

Irrelephant
hard time committing to things they're thinking
vote changes from what reads seem to say

confused town?


----

anyways i replaced into the game and I always feel most comfortable reading people based on interaction rather than what's happened (esp cuz I wasn't there and hindsight is better than present-sight)
also I doubt 8-ball is no-lynch, seems kinda dumb to me, so I'm down to no-lynch if people are willing to interact so I can narrow down between NSG and Suka.

i don't want to discuss theory about 8-ball unless we're asking who everyone thinks 8-ball is, because that feels like a waste of time

[Enter]

PP is town
votes are p contrary to jingle
lead a p hard push on jingle
other gut things, I guess

Why is Penguin's push on Jingle a town tell? Is there some reason scum wouldn't bus in this setup? What posts are pinging your gut as town?

Mostly just his d1 push on jingle seems like a hard unnecessary bus if he's scummy and that doesn't make sense to me. I'll look at it again tomorrow.

[Enter]

elephant started the Gamma wagon from Suka to which Suka quickly followed asking for:

VOTE: Gamma

If Penguin votes, we just need Jingle.

So, where I stand is Suka is scum. Elephant or Jingle is partner - but I like elephant, so I think Jingle atm. Pre-associative flips are bad blah blah blah.

p-edit

Um...I bus hard as scum usually.

I missed this. >_> This game's a mess. Idk, but I have no immunity to iocaine, so I'm not going to worry about this and trust my gut...

Esp considering he was the one that started hanging Jingle Bells, the lynch was relatively slow, and while

Spoiler: I could read this as scum surprised they're getting bussed out of nowhere,

Also:

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So vote Jingle and let's move this along.

but when I was new to mafia on a different site I rolled mafia in my first game and I was hardbussed out of nowhere and our interactions read a lot like Jingle's and Penguin's. But don't mafia have daychat? So this shouldn't read like this, because there should be communication there that wasn't there for me. Maybe? I don't know.

Oh. Also the big reason: Jingle is the only bus here that doesn't feel like it's coming from out of nowhere and last-minute, and bussing another scum right then when all you had to do was last one more lynch and then 8-ball your buddy before bussing his lights out out of him seems weird to me.


So for now I still like Penguin as town. It makes the most sense in my head and my gut at the moment.

[Enter]

I've gotta go to work now but I'll prolly get to NSG when I get back

[Enter]

Suka why is your one post this game day “are you sure about your single townread?”

I think it’s either Suka or Enter
I was leaning Saudade but Enter seems townier than Suka in the entrances to this gameday

Penguin has like .01% scum equity (leading the Jingle wagon) and NSG has like 1% scum equity (chose the Jingle wagon over the Saudade wagon last game day) after the Jingle flip

Saudade couldn't have been the lynch yesterday.

[Enter]

vote count 3.09

cue sports fun fact:

to follow!

Irrelephant11

(0) :

PenguinPower

(0) :

northsidegal

(0) :

Jingle

(3) : PenguinPower, Irrelephant11, northsidegal

Suka

(0) :

Saudade

(1) : Suka, Jingle

not voting:

Saudade

with 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

day two will end in (expired on 2018-12-28 17:00:00), or earlier automatically if a majority lynch is achieved.

mod notes:

- quack

Saudade was the only one not voting.

NSG votes Saud, Saud won't hammer themselves => more likely that Saude and Suka vote Jingle (suka had already expressed desire to lynch jingle previously and Saud would probably want to avoid flipping themselves)
=> Jingle Lynch w/ everyone but Jingle, NSG, and Suka on wagon looks super bad.

[Enter]

Penguin's prolly town

Suka's scummy but I also kinda remember pinging towny when skimming him

NSG has almost nothing going for her as far as towncred, IMO, and plenty of scum points.

Irrelephant is uncertain and feels towny

[Enter]

So in other words, you’re thinking

{Enter}
{Penguin}
{Irrelephant}
—— null line
{Suka}
{nsg}

Why aren’t you voting nsg, or otherwise pressuring her?

I hate quoting myself at people cuz it seems presumptuous, but I feel like every question you've asked me has been answered in the first post I made today, so I'm going to quote myself at you and then ask you at least to skim that for answers if you're about to ask me another question.

anyways i replaced into the game and I always feel most comfortable reading people based on interaction rather than what's happened (esp cuz I wasn't there and hindsight is better than present-sight)
also I doubt 8-ball is no-lynch, seems kinda dumb to me, so I'm down to no-lynch if people are willing to interact so I can narrow down between NSG and Suka.

i don't want to discuss theory about 8-ball unless we're asking who everyone thinks 8-ball is, because that feels like a waste of time

[Enter]

I’m trying to clear up what your posts mean because a lot of it has felt hedge-y

define hedge-y

[Enter]

Oh. I think I understand.

I think you're town, elephant. I'm almost certain Penguin's town.

I want to hear from NSG and Suka.

[Enter]

@penguin share your thoughts on NSG pls

[Enter]

@suka what makes you drive Penguin so hard today?

[Enter]

@penguin share your thoughts on NSG pls

ProbTown with a slight confidence drop due to activity.

If I gave you a couple reasons you should reconsider, could you either refute or go in more detail?

[Enter]

most people read me through activity and through my depth of thought.

A quick glance at NSG's ISO shows a recent lack of both of these. Her reason for voting jingle is "PoE" which doesn't happen to have a whole lot depth behind it.

Jingle follows her votes pretty closely.

She makes promises of activity that extend to a few questions here and there, but the best word to describe her play right now, imo, is "absent."

[Enter]

I don't understand what you mean by "drive," Enter? This is where I'm at:

I currently townread NSG, strongly. I'm also confident I could convince you of the read if I had to give reasons to defend her.

I scumread your predecessor but am giving you a chance before sorting. I thought your read on Penguin felt very mechanical/superficial, so that's where I started my questioning.

I don't understand what caused Penguin to suddenly scumread Jingle. I also don't like that he's tunneling me for shitty reasons. The only reason I have to keep him alive is sheeping NSG's read.

I'm also confused by Irrelephant. I liked Irrelephant yesterday for following my reasoning on Jingle, as well as pointing out that I probably wasn't Jingle's partner (limiting mislynch options for today). But then he opens the day misreading another one of my posts (this isn't the first time he's done that this game) and then voting me?

Please do give me reasons for. My big opposing reasons are posted right above this one.

I can't comment on the Jingle thing. I kind of read him as scummy in my readthrough, but I knew he was scum when I replaced in, so the interaction there is not one I can particularly follow.

By drive I mean that most of your questions today seem to be directed at finding the flightless bird a noose.

[Enter]

Her reason for voting jingle is "PoE" which doesn't happen to have a whole lot depth behind it.

Jingle follows her votes pretty closely.

These are both reasons to townread NSG. If NSG were scum, she'd have given stronger reasons to lynch her partner than "poe." And scum don't usually coordinate their votes that closely when there's just two of them in a game.

Why? Then you start looking like Penguin/Jingle where it feels overplayed and overdramatic. The less you say the less people have to look at.

@enter

She probably could have swung yesterday to me instead on jingle. If scum, why not?

Pretty sure she tried. Remember when both her and Jingle were voting you, and you asked him to unvote you and he did and then Jingle got all the momentum of the lynch?

[Enter]

As far as Jingle's vote following NSG's:

Jingle and NSG got pint lynched together near day end
Jingle hammered and NSG just happened to be a little too late to say "i don't think he's scum"
Jingle and NSG pushed penguin together until Jingle took the momentum

I guess it's kinda WIFOM-y, but there's a point where the guy points in his glass and says "this has iocaine in it"

[Enter]

I don't support a Suka lynch at this time.

VOTE: NSG

[Enter]

your points are good, Suka, and I see how her posts could be town!NSG. I'd just rather talk to her directly.

[Enter]

I +1 everything Penguin has posted since my last post
If you want more in depth thoughts from me you’ll have to wait till next year

If I could sum up your contributions to town this game, it would be: "what is an opinion? were we all supposed to get one?"

[Enter]

I severely exaggerated my point there to the point of inaccuracy.

That also came across as harsher than I meant it to.

[Enter]

Why do you not support a Suka lynch?

Activity.

[Enter]

you missed the "at this time" part, also.

[Enter]

To be more specific:

Earlier today you threatened to vote Suka "in the morning," putting him at L-1.

Due to the popularity of his lynch right now, I'd say the chances are relatively high he's the 8-ball if he isn't scum.

Which means that if he's sitting at L-1 tomorrow and NSG comes by and hammers, then scum gets a NK => we go to 3 w/ 1 scum tomorrow. If scum is smart in any form or fashion, they will 8-ball no lynch tomorrow=> Lylo

[Enter]

I'm not comfortable giving NSG hammering capabilities even if it would empower a more obvious NSG lynch tomorrow, esp based on the fact that everyone else seems to be townreading her. I've seen easier LyLos screwed up before.

[Enter]

Sorry...your reason for not supporting a Suka case is Suka's activity and not giving NSG a hammer? Correct?

yes

[Enter]

Enter, something to consider about Irrelephant:

Irrelpehant's 760 misinterprets 755. I never questioned your certainty in townreading Penguin. I requested more information about your reasoning with the intent of sorting you & Penguin.

Irrelephant doesn't usually misinterprets players this much as town. He's already misinterpreted me multiple times, which suggests that he's skimming my posts looking for things to scumread instead of actually trying to understand where I'm coming from.

It's especially concerning because I don't think town Irrelephant ever votes someone for calling him out on misinterpreting. He'll usually admit the error. Yet instead of backing off, he votes me & starts pocketing the shit out of Penguin.

I had him as confused town. I'll look at him more tomorrow. Happy New Year, BTW.

[Enter]

@NSG why would I need to last resort push you when the day opened w/ Penguin pushing Suka? This comes across as OMGUS-y.

@Irrelephant/Penguin pls unvote Suka for now.

P-Edit: thanks

[Enter]

I'm starting to really dislike the Suka lynch..


VOTE: NSG


you come back after idk how long of inactivity and all of a sudden you're only scum read is the person trying to push your lynch w/ no surrounding reads and where is there precedence for you scum reading this slot?

You seem to just come in and say something that seems mildly towny every once in a while "oh darn, really wish we hadn't flipped GE" or post some theory-related question about game thread. I really didn't like the way your vote on Jingle happened at day end yesterday, the pinto push was disgusting, and your read is just "poe".

@relly/PP/Suka, please seriously consider NSG. Very rarely have I found that it's the obvious lynch, and twice this game that's proven true. I haven't seen anything outright scummy from Suka like I've seen Jingle do (his "fingers crossed" with the hammer on GE was ridiculous) the scumreads on him seem mostly due to misunderstandings and the like.

[Enter]

I'll try and scum!case NSG today

[Enter]

I don't know. My gut is pinging me really hard on her, but I feel like my read on her is mostly gut, and though I've posted the reasons I think my gut is pinging me so hard, I want to go back and find specifics and see if I can better explain myself.

Honestly if everyone in town agreed to lynch NSG as long as I flip town tonight, I'd be willing to flip myself.

I just doubt that would work. I've seen too many times town just changes it mind from day to day regardless of the mindset of the last day, and I don't know any of you well enough to trust you.

[Enter]

UNVOTE:

So usually I get my reads off of playing through RVS and getting initial interactions w/ players so I can notice any awkward inconsistencies in their play. Obviously, I can't do that this game, and for some reason I thought a skim of the thread and initial interactions after a VCA and a quick look at certain points and interactions of interests would be enough to help me sort through this mess of a game. Unfortunately, my reads are still enormously based on my gut, and excessive aggression isn't getting me to the certainty that I'd like to have anywhere nearly as quickly as I'd like to get. So I decided to go back and fully case each player to the best of my ability (and attention span).

So let's start with everyone's favorite scum read.

Upon initial analysis, he looked pretty scummy, and honestly my largest reason for not thinking he was completely scum is the fact that everyone else has been so quick to push his lynch. In all of my mafia games I have only very rarely encountered an easy scum lynch on any day, regardless of whether or not players had scum pegged on the day before. Being so hesitant to lynch Suka, I wanted to go back and recalibrate to make sure my caution wasn't misguided. So I went back and read CJ.

CJ comes across as a relatively easy townread, IMO. He starts off as I've seen many new town players do, pushing lynches on the most awkward (irrelephant) and defensive (pintu) players in the game. Both of these are very justified as easy lynches to push, and often lynches I see newer/inexperienced town push often.

Spoiler: CJ inexperienced town

I'm getting awkward tones off irrelephant on the first two pages

VOTE: irrelephant

This is fair and doesn't feel predatory like it might from a scum trying to force a lynch. irrelephant's posts at this point had been quite awkward and uncertain, which is what one might expect from inexperienced scum that aren't necessarily certain how to react.

ceejay, my awkwardness is literally consensus (I agree myself). Anything original you'd like to share?

Kinda wanna vote pintu too. His posts don't look town enough to me.

This, also, I see as coming from town. Pintu had some of the least activity in the thread at this point, and while his few posts had been jokes, he hadn't said so at this point, and I'm likely to believe that CJ took them seriously.

Following this, we see CJ begin to press his reads. He doesn't fall into patterns of inactivity as one might expect from scum who feel they've applied adequate pressure to be remembered.

Spoiler: CJ agressive & towny

ceejay, my awkwardness is literally consensus (I agree myself). Anything original you'd like to share?

Kinda wanna vote pintu too. His posts don't look town enough to me.

I haven't said anything serious in the whole game

Exactly!

What I mean is that of course my posts don't look town. Are you implying that, at this point, I should have been already posted something serious?

uh kinda?

I mean, we are past rvs right

Calls pintu out on inactivity, continues to push as pintu groes defensive (this is a classic interaction between new town players.)

I like Frozen Angel's entrance, gave the game some fuel. Vivi's vote on Irrelephant was jumpy, but I don't wanna vote for him 'cause he's the perfect 8-ball

why do you think that about vivi?

'Cause I don't believe his reason for voting Irrelephant:

I'm getting awkward tones off irrelephant on the first two pages

VOTE: irrelephant

He talked about awkwardness in the first two pages, when there was a lot more content to see after that. Feels like vivi thought it was a good moment to place a vote there since Jingle and NSG were both suspecting Irrelephant. The timing and the lack of a good reason to vote makes me believe he has ulterior motives to place that vote there. Specially after being told by Irrelephant that his awkwardness is NAI, not only he doesn't unvote, but he tells him that he wants to vote for me too; it seems to me that that post was made to have an excuse to jump on an eventual wagon on me without backlash. So yeah, vivi feels jumpy to me.

what is it then? where are you? am I 8 ball or scum?

I hope speculation on 8 ball doesn't hinder your scumhunting.

Calls out pintu for being criss-crossy on his reads. Continues to question, if somewhat seemingly stubbornly. I'd expect scum to say something along the lines of "die, scum" or perhaps attempt to come across as more reasonable => more likeable and less likely to be lynched.

why weren't you voting pintu before? what do you think about irrel?

I was already considering voting pintu, I just thought wait for him to come back and say something. You voted him tho so I might as well join.

Irrel awkward != scummy but I thought it was a good place to start.

idk what to think of Irrel right now, would love to see more first.

Switches vote to pintu just before this, NSG puts a rather awkward seeming vote on pintu and then tries to redirect attention to CJ afterwards. CJ waiting to drop his vote until after NSG dropped hers feels weird at first, and makes me question where I'm reading him thus far slightly, but I can see it coming from town that hasn't really seen a likeable response from their scum reads. I could also see this move coming from scum, though, so this post doesn't really pull me either way.

Why am I feeling like a jingle wagon is a good idea

This is in character with inexperienced town!CJ that I've been reading him as so far. Jingle gets defensive quickly and responds to a wagon against him by asking for more votes w/ no apparent reason, which is a pretty easy way to look like scrambling scum, pretty quickly.

The last post I'd like to talk about from CJ before he got replaced is this:

Spoiler: CJ applying himself and trying to work w/ town

I think I done screwed up yesterday and will choose myself as 8-ball if possible.

If I had to choose someone else I would probably choose Saudade. He's the only guy here I have prior experience mislynching as scum.

Irrelephant is also possible but it would be a chore.

This just feels honest to me, which really helps my town read of him significantly. I don't know why it reads as honest, it just does. He seems to be legitimately working with town.

So my read for CJ? Inexperienced town. Quick to jump on commonly scumread indicators, but consistent, not quick to give up or disappear when he felt he'd contributed or he'd achieved a townread. Thought process seems consistent as town, and even has a post that just pings me as straight honest. Was the pintu lynch a rookie lynch that (as an outsider looking in) shouldn't have happened in a game w/ even somewhat experienced players? No. Did CJ's reasons seem honest? Yes.

Now. Suka. I'll be honest, upon a re-review of Suka, with my read of CJ in mind, I felt a bit biased in the other direction. Another thing that's at least partially biasing a town read on him is the fact that most other players view him as an easy lynch, which I very strongly believe is usually a decent indicator of town. That said, I tried to be as fair as possible on my re-read...

...and I honestly can really understand why people see Suka is scum. He doesn't really seem to take a position often, and when he does, it seems shaky. He went back and forth on whatever lynch seemed possible multiple times, and it definitely looks like he just threw names together with Saudade's in any attempt to make it look like he was still pushing Saude with his vote on whoever the popular lynch target was at the time. He doesn't really take strong stances, regardless of the fact that he acts a relentless amount of questions. I don't really have much more to say than what I already have about his voting tendencies. So he doesn't come across as super town... but he doesn't really sell me on scum, either.

SO. Based on my CJ read, I'm going to give Suka BoD rn and say he's town and just has a weird playstyle that makes him look scummy.

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I'll come back and redo the others tomorrow. I'm tired. I'm sorry.

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I've seen relatively experienced players play like they haven't learned anything a game in their lives as town as far as scum hunting goes...

Is CJ usually pretty aware of common misconceptions and mislynches?

Ugh. I'll go meta him, I guess.

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I was town! GL tomorrow.

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Oh carp. My b.

VOTE: Suka

Yeah I don't see a player who knows what they're doing playing like CJ did earlier.

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It's not. GG town, I played like shit and I'm sorry for that, you guys were great!

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My only excuse is that this is my first game in like 2 years, haha. WP though. And I didn't answer your question, NSG, but yeah that was a totally valid reason. I have a lot of respect for the way you kept your wits about you and recognized suboptimal play even when I was trying to tunnel you and throw you off your game. WP all.

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i think you played as well as anyone in your situation could have! coming in swinging with that big analysis you had was definitely the best thing you could have done, i think.

Thanks!

enter<3

<3

Ayyyyy

Congrats!

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@enter/jingle, please yell out if either of you guys have an issue with scum pt release.
otherwise i'll put out at the start of next wk.

Naw dude. Let them eat cake.

That wagon on me was absolutely awful

No kidding. Pintu's was p bad too. I was super surprised to see both of your lynch s happen, especially in a game where town can easily get away w/ no lynch.

P-Edit: It was Saude day 1 and 2 and then I put it on Penguin day last cuz I thought I could get him run off the map maybe

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Wait it was Saude every day until I replaced in.

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Yeah, lol.

I thought I could get Penguin lynched, but I didn't want my opening reads to reflect that if he flipped 8-ball. Then no one wanted him and then Suka gave me false hope and I flipped wayyy too much on my reads and didn't lynch Suka when I had the shot. LOL.

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You replaced Saude...

Yeah. I'm saying Saude made himself 8-ball every day until I replaced in.

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It's a playstyle thing.

They have all played with me before. Your brief meta wasn't enough...which is what I said.

p-edit

I get that now...wow.

Eh, I kind of figured. Oh well. Well done!

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i got incredibly t/t vibes from nsg and pp fwiw but also i was spoiled so i was probably always going to

Yes. Playing against both of them felt like smashing my head into a brick wall (in a good way, for town.) Both of you guys are very intimidating.

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Not sure what exactly was wrong there

A couple reasons, really.

1. Posting like that just comes off as scummy. I can't explain why right now, it just does.

2. These were the four posts right before it:

VOTE: Penguin

I’ll be back to switch my vote before deadline if needed, but I really don’t think it’s saudade. Why tunnel on one of the most active/townread players D1 as scum?

Why do most people seem to want to vote off wagon

VOTE: Penguin

I’ll be back to switch my vote before deadline if needed, but I really don’t think it’s saudade. Why tunnel on one of the most active/townread players D1 as scum?

I mean “to get townread while your partner does the dirty work” is an answer to that question if the other scum is anyone on wagon

5/6 townies voting the last townie while both scum vote elsewhere is extremely, extremely rare
I’m willing to bet the game on the idea that it’s never Penguin/Saudade
VOTE: suka

day two will end in (expired on 2018-12-17 17:00:00), or earlier automatically if a majority lynch is achieved.

VOTE: Irrelephant

I'm going back to what I thought when I still felt I had a handle on this game.

If I flip 8ball I'm like 90% sure it's relly here, that jump to make me the only really viable wagon is gross as fuck, especially when it's a jump to voting not me.

I'll vote Suka before deadline if I'm the only other option, but I really think lynching the CJ slot today is dumb.

Why? PP?

Four posts and he says he's willing to lynch three people that are not GE?

WTF? Lul.

and then there's the last reason (that I can think of)

3. He hammers six minutes after GE is put at L-1 with no post about intent to hammer or anything. Six minutes is not a lot of time to react.

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[quote="In [url=viewtopic.php?p=10647593#p10647593]Also, I kind of went over it in the deadthread, but I think optimal play for this setup is to not bus, aim for hitting the eightball on D2, and let town lead the other lynches. You should 8ball scum only if they're sunk or if you're in LYLO.[/quote]

No kidding

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LYLO is weird because it might be ok to 8-ball no lynch.

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I would never 8-ball no lynch in 5p LYLO, btw. It's a win more move, in that it only benefits you if you're probably going to win the game regardless of what you do. Comparatively, 8-balling one of the scum is insurance that keeps you in LYLO if they are lynched, which is coincidentally the only way you might lose.

8 ball literally doesn't matter in 3P LYLO, so I guess you 8 ball no lynch, but if town can't manage a lynch in 3P LYLO then scum should be winning hard anyway.

3p is what I was talking about because it was the only one that might have mattered to me.