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Well, you're less town than the flipped town players. You're also less town than the Gemerald, and I've talked a bit about why I think he's town. You're also more town than the PoE pool as I've talked a bit about reasons to think youtown, even if they're not super convincing to me.
Past that, I'm afraid I don't understand the point of your question.
I haven't played scum since the beginning of the year when I replaced into a caught scum slot and lasted two days. My prior scum game is the one tn referenced D1 where I lost because I helped town mechanically clear too many players to win through and might still have won if not for Ank strongarming lynches onto BOTH of my partners.
I want to say Inferno's twilight was town indicative, but that's probably lazyreads.
In addition, I have a slight gut town on you from your reactions to my push on you D1. It didn't feel like your interactions with RC in the normal we played.
You're hovering in that area of I wouldn't really be surprised if you flipped scum, but I think you're probably town. Gamma flipping scum would merit a raised eyebrow.
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Post #1241 (isolation #11) » Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:37 am
Postby Bingle »
In post 1239, Austerity wrote:Because it looked like everyone else on the wagon wasn't serious about it and they jumped ship as soon as it hit L-1. That could indicate distancing, actually.
As for the latter, you have seemed actively nasty in your pushes, whereas B&B hasn't really given me strong vibes either way yet.
Everyone else on the wagon jumped ship when I called them out on their reasons for suspecting me being bullshit.
Austerity wrote:He's been pushing easy targets with relatively shallow analysis. The most recent example of this is pushing you for mischaracterizing his play this game, as though that's something you would do on purpose as scum.
And, I don't understand the RC kill from any point of view except a fearkill from the other big-name player in the game. I especially don't think B&B kill ESC, unless they're partnered with Jingle.
What nonshallow analysis can I do when the major issue with this game is that people haven't been doing enough to get read, and every attempt I've made at instigating more content has been shot down with, roughly paraphrasing you, "That's not my playstyle."
Why don't you think MJL fear kills RC considering she's firmly in the RC fanclub side of things from my experience with her?
Why don't you think ANY scum kills the only really active and powerful town voice here?
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Post #1271 (isolation #13) » Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:52 pm
Postby Bingle »
In post 1242, Inferno390 wrote:Hey now Bingle
How have I not been doing enough to get read for one?
For another, I didn’t jump wagon because you “called out my shit.” I jumped because you were at L-1 and I was basically gutreading you. I knew my reasoning wasn’t very good from the get go, and I didn’t want you lynched based on just my gut read.
If y'all think I'm scum, lynch me for it. But I'm not going to roll over. I'm going to make it as drawn out as possible and make the scum pushing me burn every last shred of towncred they have in the process, because that is how we win this game.
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Post #1297 (isolation #21) » Thu Jul 25, 2019 7:31 am
Postby Bingle »
In post 1295, Bows and Bells wrote:I would not have, precisely because they pushed a mislynch so hard day one. I would have kept them as a potential target for scumpainting. I mean yeah, it's an incredibly risky move as scum to push a mislynch like that day one, but I'm told RC is good at this game and knows what he's doing. Was everybody really ready to town confirm them at the end of the dayphase?
The premise of "Would you shoot them" presumes that you, as scum, would have knowledge they are town.
If you had been scum last night, would you have shot RC, or at least considered it?
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Post #1357 (isolation #32) » Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:45 pm
Postby Bingle »
:thorface:
This is p much the opposite of fluffposting.
If we lynch randomly here it's a 1/3 of hitting scum.
If there's a direct CC here it's a 1/2 of hitting scum.
If there's a claim with no usable results it's a 2/5 of hitting scum.
If there's a claim with usable results it's a 1-2 to 100% of hitting scum.
In post 1372, Inferno390 wrote:Bingle, I think I’ve caught on to what you think my slip is
I’m gonna keep my mouth shut for now and see what comes of it
You’re welcome
...why? It's not as if seeing the slip versus not seeing it is alignment indicative, it's just how good people are at looking for stuff like that now that they know it's there.
If you see now why it looks like a slip, can you explain why you said it?
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Post #1417 (isolation #41) » Mon Jul 29, 2019 5:29 am
Postby Bingle »
In post 1413, Austerity wrote:Specifically, the slip is that if Inferno's team had two goons, they'd have known since D1 that it was either a lone JK or a lone cop, and so he may very well have forgotten that town didn't have that knowledge.
I'm normally not one to believe in slips, but this one seems pretty compelling, since I don't really see a reason why someone would make an error like that as town.
To confirm, this is it.
The potential for townslip would have been if a cop claimed, it would show that we were in a setup that had a roleblocker/cop/doc and ferno would be functionally cleared in my eyes, by the lack of information he would naturally have as scum.
As is, it is incredibly likely that ferno is either scum or JK, based on TMI.
Me, technically. I could have been slow rolling this the entire time as a way to try and preempt a cc and out scum. I wasn't, but it's a thing I could have been doing.
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Post #1453 (isolation #51) » Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:30 pm
Postby Bingle »
KK, if Inferno flips red, JK on Slime, I think. That should win us the game.
Now, to solve if Ferno flips green, which I think is a real danger here.
As much as I would hate to lose to scum AS, I think they're probably my strongest individual tr.
I've been tunneled on Austerity all game, and I really want them to be scum, but I don't trust my read to be strong.
GE/SC has slight partner equity, although not much. Otherwise, GE is probably my second strongest townread.
SC is my strongest individual scumread.
I can't locktown anyone.
Everyone make a post that looks like the above, even if you are the JK, so the JK has as much information as possible.
If JK can locktown anyone, that should increase our chances. whether the townier or scummier of the scum players takes the shot is WIFOM, so don't necessarily aim for your strongest scum read. Assume the scum will be shooting you as they should be aiming for the JK. If they aim at someone else, they risk accidentally targeting the protection and letting us have another day. Tomorrow, if we wake up, the JK claims with all actions.
After everyone has posted their reads, I'm fine with lynching Inferno and rolling the dice.
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Post #1461 (isolation #53) » Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:33 pm
Postby Bingle »
We're lynching Inferno. I just want everyone to reads dump with whatever thoughts they have before we do so in the hopes that it informs the JK. See 1453 and 1454.
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Post #1468 (isolation #55) » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:50 pm
Postby Bingle »
You'll have an uphill battle convincing me to go along with it. Especially given 1460.
Frankly, I don't see a world where we don't lynch Inferno. I think it's possible I'm wrong and he's town, but the PoV of his that we were in either JK 9er or cop 9er doesn't make sense unless he was the JK or scum. VT would enter the day thinking JK 9er or cop/doc/blocker. Inferno didn't even consider cop/doc/blocker, and instead jumped directly to scum nokill gambit. He's claimed not JK.
His embarrassment is real. But it's probably embarrassment about slipping as scum. The only reason I'm jumping through these hoops is because I've been wrong before.
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Post #1478 (isolation #59) » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:22 pm
Postby Bingle »
I'd take that as a bonus. I think the more pressing concern is Inferno self hammering if town puts him to L-1 before we work out what to do if he's scum.
My reasoning for Slime as JK target if Inferno flips scum is that he has very slight JK equity and if scum risk shooting him and he's not JK that gives us an extra mislynch.
I think there's a better than 50% chance its not SC. But the chance to ensure that scum doesn't kill there if SC is the JK is worth making him the target. Also, I don't think anyone is hard townreading SC to the point where conftowning him would be a bad move.
Obviously, successfully jailing the scum would be the best case, but again, I doubt anyone is hard townreading SC to the point where they'd be surprised at the scumlynch there.
Ofc, SC should also tell us who they would JK if they were JK just in case they flip overnight, assuming you all agree to my proposed JK target.