Micro 945 | CultD3 | Game Over!
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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I said no "but". I told you the only way I see her as scum is if she was converted and I am wrong about Norwee/Drew. Your reading is uncharitable.
I refer you to my 539 for a rather comprehensive review of why I consider Norwee to be scum. I was still expressing uncertainty at the time but I've become more and more confident in the logic over time.
Norwee's stance on the votato wagon is the most opportunistic of them all, while his interactions with me have been broadly unnatural. Norwee/Drew as a team has much explanatory power throughout the events of D1.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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If you plan to sell that with 3 days to deadline you have some work to do.
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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The reason I bought the Porkens quickhammer easily is that I have been in a few games with quickhammers and it's always been town (pre-LyLo). I can directly reference you to these games if you wish. It was consistent with my mental image of Porkens' playstyle that he would be capable of a similar play.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Also why are you incredulous about Norwee buying it, he claims a FN message from that slot lmaoIn post 769, Deimos27 wrote:The reason I bought the Porkens quickhammer easily is that I have been in a few games with quickhammers and it's always been town (pre-LyLo). I can directly reference you to these games if you wish. It was consistent with my mental image of Porkens' playstyle that he would be capable of a similar play.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Mohab reads to me like newbtown. And I think that's ok, despite her having some experience with the game, because we established that she used to soft gamethrow and meme a lot, and this game she'll be playing with exceptional seriousness.
Additionally I've been sitting on a potential towntell with 400. I think cult, at least og cult, would know that there is a maximum of 3 players. I know experienced scum sometimes fake a lack of information in exactly this way to get townread, but Mohab doesn't strike me as that kind of player. Would appreciate feedback on this.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Norwee's 460 could maybe still be a townie that glanced over Oromis's message and hence misread it, but look at the follow-up in 462. A townie says something like "oops, I misread your first post, I thought you tracked Porkens". Norwee's reaction looks like a panicked scum trying to correct his mistake with a "nah m8 you obviously tracked Porkens so how can you possibly know about TSE". Like that post honestly makes zero sense, you don't get totellsomeone else who they did or did not track.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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When Norwee got to 3 votes yesterday he stuck his head in the sand and didn't comment on anything. Sort of like how he's reacted to pressure today too. Contrast that with Drew. As soon as he took on a couple votes he got very defensive and survivalist. Cult knows that town expects CL to be exactly that: defensive and survivalist. I can totally see PT messages along the lines of "CL should be relatively unresponsive to pressure, while the cultist should play quite defensively to run misdirection". I know I'm going into WIFOM, but this is my guess at the logical number of wine swaps that would occur.In post 777, Deimos27 wrote:TSE, I agree with Norwee/Drew team. Have for a while. But I believe Norwee is the CL.
The other tell I have is Norwee's presence on the L-1 wagon on Drew at the start of today.
Those three elements are why I see CL!Norwee > CL!Drew.
(1) How defensively Drew reacted to pressure yesterday
(2) How Norwee tended toignorepressure
(3) How easily Norwee bussed Drew today
I will say, when it comes to (1), that even if you go with themostsurface level analysis and expect CL to be defensive, that wouldn't check with how Drew went about it. CL would aim to balance their defense with gamesolviness to get townread. Drew never got convincingly gamesolvey while he was under pressure, and I think he overdid his defensiveness. It was too obvious to be CL.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Convert-at-worst / not!(og cult), I meanIn post 778, Deimos27 wrote:So is clidd being convert only PoE for you?-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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The last game I played was Open 778, featuring town!Alisae quickhammering town!Albert B. Rampage on D2 (post 1467, only 24h of a 7 day DP played!)In post 785, Oromis wrote:
Link them.In post 769, Deimos27 wrote:The reason I bought the Porkens quickhammer easily is that I have been in a few games with quickhammers and it's always been town (pre-LyLo). I can directly reference you to these games if you wish. It was consistent with my mental image of Porkens' playstyle that he would be capable of a similar play.
The game I played before that was Newbie 2002, featuring town!Kerset quickhammering town!amercelo D1 (post 553, over 3 days to deadline)
The only other game I've played since returning from an almost 3 year hiatus was Newbie 1998 which we won in about 13 pages or something ridiculous, with back-to-back scum lynches days 1 and 2.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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The relevant quotes from my ISO are:In post 784, Oromis wrote:I don't really follow your wagon analysis (I'm not a big believer in wagonomics, generally), but I agree that town!Porkens, town!Deimos, and town!TSE starts to implicate Drew simply through PoE.
Spoiler:
The basic idea is that Drew was a leading wagon with 3 town on it (assume town!Porkens ^ town!Deimos). Therefore, if Drew is town, he had high mislynch equity for scum, and you would expect them to add more fuel to the flame. Instead scum didn't even touch the wagon, and votato became the lynch instead.
The way it went down is that Norwee voted votato, tying the wagons, and then came clidd, putting votato in the lead. Scum!Drew = True has more explanatory power than town!Drew = True in this case, because the expected outcome when Drew is town is for his wagon to remain in the lead or get pushed to L-1, while when he is scum, you expect the next most leading wagon (votato) to manifest as a counterwagon.
Note also the charismatic model of mafia, which argues that scum tend to want to lynch the most charismatic townies. Votato has like, negative charisma, (Drew isn't hyper charismatic either but he had shown at least some limited lynch resistance). The fact that a votato lynch went through so early means scum had low standards, which supports the idea that one of their own (Drew!) was currently at risk and they had to settle for lynchbait.
My distaste of Norwee's vote on votato also plays into this. I don't see why he needs to force himself to make that awkward votato push, when Drew is a wagon with more mislynch equity (at the time of his vote).Unless, of course, Drew is Norwee's scumpartner, and he wants to shift momentum in that direction.
There are always gonna be alternative explanations that can account for town!Drew, but this one is so logical it surely has a probabilistic edge. This voting pattern of one leading wagon, occupied only by townies, being exchanged for the second largest wagon, which is against town lynchbait, very often indicates that the second wagon was a counterwagon to the first.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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I no longer think you have converted cult equity because I don't think you make sense as a partner to Norwee/Drew.In post 791, Oromis wrote:and I myself feel the need to hash out his statement of us as having converted cult equity before we proceeed.
My earlier opinion wasn't based on particularly complicated reasoning. I expect cult to be converting a player who is competent, charismatic, and widely townread. Your D1 play came off to me as highly competent, very charismatic, and you were, in fact, widely townread. The fact that I expected myself to be a high priority convert also played into this, since I thought if it isn't me, it is probably Oromis.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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By "mislynch equity" I mean the likelihood that scum will want to push the slot, not the likelihood that the slot gets mislynched. My wording was slightly misleading there. I think votato was marginally lynchbaitier than Drew in playstyle, but Idon'tthink that means scum was likely to prefer his lynch over Drew's. I think when Drew was the leading wagon, scum would've wanted to push that one through, knowing that votato has an even lower threat level.-
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What I dislike about Drew's unvote is that it only occurred after you unvoted Norwee — but since that was the first time he posted since you started your towntelling spree, I can't really draw any conclusions without confbiasing. Broadly I would say I resonated with the view that you were initially suspicious but shed that cloak over the course of many of the quoted posts, so I don't think that progression is unnatural. It would be easier to tell if he had been posting more often so I could judge that interaction without the Norwee association muddying the waters.In post 784, Oromis wrote:My thoughts on Drew are limited, and are as follows:
- I did not find his defensiveness in reactions to Porkens AI.
- The main thing that I wanted to look at again was 236, specifically his post edit w.r.t. his townreading us. I wondered if his progression on me was natural. For reference, the main post he would be looking at would be 235, in addition to 168, 171, 186, and 221. It is sort of difficult for me to gauge my own towniness in a way--this is one where I'll need others to weigh in. The main question is whether the reversal is natural in the context of my posts or whether the townread came because he was assessing my slot through mafia goggles and felt I was no longer an easy mislynch. On Day 1 I was inclined to believe the former, but I want to revisit it now.
- Day 2 I have not loved Drew so far. 582 is where he reverses on us and positions himself around our fight with Porkens. His read on Mohab there is weakly justified, and his justifications for FOSing Clidd and Deimos equate to "too towny, might be scum." (To be fair, I have my own paranoid considerations of CL!Deimos and CL!Clidd.)
- The end of 582 and 591 are ostensible townslips, but feel less natural than Mohab's. I honestly am not buying townslips from anyone at this stage of the game and they will probably end up a minor factor in my reads.
- 747 is weird in that he claims to have had a gut impulse of "scum theater" in response to the interactions of the two uncc'd PRs, at least one of whom must be town.
- 750 is also odd in that Drew considers us as CL. I understood his position before this to be that we were town on Day 1, but potentially converted. His read on us feels inconsistent here.
~joq
When it comes to D1 Drew, I'm more concerned with his takes on Mohab and Porkens in 216 and 230, since neither of these views made sense to me. Especially calling out Porkens on being opportunistic, when he clearly wasn't, and then voting him, came off as an opportunistic and OMGUSy attempt at discrediting the push on himself while counterwagoning it by tying the Porkens and Drew wagons.
His D2 play has been less than flattering as well, and you make some good points. 591 for instance reads as a rather unnatural attempt at feigning ignorance about cult mechanics. You either know that there is a cap on all three cult, in which case you don't include this questioning "right?", or you don't know, in which case you don't comment on it or you go check the rules. Also this "ya but that's just wifom" pings me in general because everything in mafia can be construed as WIFOM and the key is working around the probabilities and expected wine swaps, not just ignoring every comment susceptible to it. I remember reading somewhere, I think the mafiascum wiki, about how it's a good scum tactic to say "but that's all just wifom anyway" in order to void uncomfortable topics, and his phrasing is annoyingly similar. Looks like it suits Drew's agenda for people to suspect Oromis so he wants to invalidate discussion about a perfectly legitimate clue: would scum!Oromis have played a fake guilty after being converted?
750 is also odd, as you say, and suggests that something has changed significantly in Drew's opinion of your D1 play, since he's been townreading it previously.
In general Drew feels inactive and detached from the game, which makes it hard to get a strong read. The main thing that sticks out at me about him as an individual is that he's not contributing very much and he doesn't feel all that gamesolvey — but I'm wary of his inactivity clouding my vision about how AI that is. I admit that I'm mostly dependent on the wagon analysis and the Norwee association in my own scumread of him.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Ok I like 788. I think it goes some way in explaining for me why the convert is neither me nor Oromis. Gives me further confidence in Norwee/Drew because the main converts I see for this duo are clidd and perhaps TSE, but I couldn't figure out why they would choose one of these two.-
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You need not kid; I thought the points about 591 were pretty nitpicky as well. It's mainly the fact that you struck two tells with one stone that made it worth mention.In post 799, Doctor Drew wrote:Man, Deimos is one of those super nit picky types 'your ellipsis's contained 3 dots not 4, that definitely comes from a town mind set'. I kid I kid.
Worked all day yesterday, enjoyed the outdoors the rest if the day, and I have been at work all day today.
I will be on later with stuffs and things.-
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There were too many possibilities to consider so I took it back to basics and scumread someone individually. That someone was Norwee.In post 801, Porkens wrote:Ok, but how did you narrow it down to those two?
I also had the wagon analysis association that there must be scum in Porkens/Drew.
I find Drew scummier than you, and I think you should get to live so you can send more FN messages.
I'm also yet to see any contradiction in holding scum!Norwee ^ scum!Drew. In fact, I think it has a lot of explanatory power.-
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The Norwee/Drew Case Compendium
Why Norwee is scum
- Tonal awkwardness (539)
- Votato wagon positioning (ibid.)
- Oromis tell (742, though I prefer my take in 773)
- His wagon won't gain traction despite him being in everyone's lynch pool (782)
Why Drew is scum with Norwee
- votato was the counterwagon to Drew (792)
- Norwee's awkward votato vote was to shift momentum off Drew (ibid.)
- Drew lacks a gamesolving disposition and has made a couple culty posts (796)
Why Norwee is CL rather than Drew (781)
- Drew being overly defensive D1
- Norwee's unresponsiveness to pressure D1&D2
- Norwee bussing Drew too easily, and in fact all the way to L-1 at start of D2
Does this team have compatible converts?
- Yes! See my reaction to 788 in 797-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Drew got to L-1 at the start of today after TSE voted him, but I unvoted for the same fear of cult (self-)quickhammers.In post 812, Oromis wrote:I mentioned this to joqiza, but we should be careful about running up someone to L-1 as if they are non CL cult they will likely just self hammer as they retain their numbers (and gain another scum).
has anyone been at L-1 yet btw? - serious question.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Can you fix the grammar so I can understand this please and thank youIn post 808, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I don’t really thing Deimos is scum for effort. It’s wrong on me though.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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So you townread me, but you think it's wrong of you to do so. This kind of thinking confuses me. Don't townread me if you don't think I'm worthy of a townread.In post 820, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Switch thing for *think. Grammar was fine.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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He was L-1 for 21 minutes. Probably too short to draw conclusions about.In post 817, Deimos27 wrote:That one's actually pretty interesting. The longer Drew was at L-1 the likelier he is to be town/CL.
Though if Drew were scum with TSE I'd expect TSE not to place the L-1 vote until Drew was online at the same time, so that a townie unvote could be mitigated via an instant Drew selfhammer. Might give slight support to the idea that TSE isn't aligned with a non-CL Drew.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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I am very very interested!In post 827, Oromis wrote:hey Deimos, we have a gamesolve you might be interested in. I'm going to out it but I want norwee to finish interacting with me first. -Koba-
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Yayyyy it's the same as my curret solve! Except I had Norwee as CL and Drew as Cult PR.In post 833, Oromis wrote:alright since norwee gave all they were probably going to give, here's my solve as of now:
Drew: Cult Leader
Norwee: Cult PR
Clidd: Converted Town
Walk me through that dynamic?-
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Hmhmhmhmhm does Norwee have it in him to pull the big boy white flag gambits? Maybe thisisin fact the last puzzle piece. Lynching non-CL cult isn't that big a deal, and Norwee didn't need to get that spooked in 62 (the tonality of which I hate a lot, btw) if he's the CL. Same story with his indecisiveness about votato/Drew. That counterwagon has a lot more reason to be there if Drew is the CL, while Norwee can just sort of chill otherwise.
My thoughts also go back to that time Norwee soft shaded Mohab for getting on the Drew wagon. The sense I got from his tone is that he hated that outcome. Which makes no sense if CL!Norwee + cult!Drew. Then there was him eventually unvoting Drew to go for TSE. Again, why not keep pushing Drew?
And then thereisthat 21 minutes Drew spent at L-1 without a hammer. Which is either completely insignificant or super significant, depending on who was online at the time.
My tunnel may have caused me to read the tea leaves (er... wine glasses) the wrong way. This might be Drew after all. And I'm very excited about it.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Wait, actually Norwee voted after Mohab did. He was the L-2.
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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But look at this though.In post 430, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I agree Drew might be a good lynch based on him jumping on Porkens today. But does he have cult leader equity? Which is more likely between Drew and TSE in your opinion Deimos?
Tell me if that ain't a cult pr claim.
If this is CL!Norwee he doesn't go "but does he have more cult leader equity than TSE? Deimos, what say you? Are you sure?"
He just pushes Drew.
The way he questions Drew CL equity and shades Mohab vote makes me feel like he was definitely still trying to undermine this wagon.-
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Solving this setup is a Herculean task. Cult is a buffed mafia since they don't just kill, but the killed player comes to play for their team (2 man swing vs the 1 man swing of a normal NK). And the culted players all turn into potential jesters misdirecting from CL, and it's all a real pain to sort. And the town PRs just don't seem strong enough to compensate.-
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Deimos27 Mafia Scum
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Wait a second, 62 was about the Oromis wagon, I'm daft. All the other points stand.In post 846, Deimos27 wrote:Lynching non-CL cult isn't that big a deal, and Norwee didn't need to get that spooked in 62 (the tonality of which I hate a lot, btw) if he's the CL.-
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Yeah I think this version of the setup is a first and last for me. Just generally unfun to be punished for lynching non-town. And when cult hits PR the fakeclaim potential is actually oppressive.
When it comes to CL!Drew vs CL!Norwee, I'm just sort of waiting for more players to come online and chime in.-
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