Micro 955: Variant Nomination Mafia (Game Over)

[Nash]

Hello!

Nominate: DkKoba

why would mafia want to be nominated

[Nash]

I don't think the game has started so we can't vote.
Does this setup have any strategies in particular?

I think we should nominate a scummy player and not worry about who they pick. That player gets a chance to outline thoughts in a way to help redirect us in the case the we are wrong. Or if we nominate scum and they pick a whole bunch of obvious towns they just die anyway because we already scum read them in the first place.

Compare this to picking a clear town player who happens to not agree on consensus scum, then we just are out of luck.

I agree with nominating the scummiest player.
Assuming we lynch at random, that puts us at 43% win, I think?

[Nash]

If we manage to guess two towns, we shoot up to 90%.
My guess right now is Yukino and DkKoba

[Nash]

I don't even like to lynch at random when it's beneficial to do so, at 43% that would be actively detrimental

Of course, it's never truly random. Somebody has to tell us who was 'randomly' chosen, and then you have to account for 'what if that person is mafia'

I believe randomly choosing is the worst case scenario. Town should have higher chances taking reads into account.

Do we nominate a global town-read or do we nominate a global scum-read?

I'd prefer global scum-read.
If we nominate a global town-read, chances are we'll end up lynching the scummiest anyway.
Nominating a global scum-read gives us the additional WIFOM aspect, which might be useful.

[Nash]

Hello!

Nominate: DkKoba

why would mafia want to be nominated

Do you think it's likely that we end up lynching the nominee on day 1?

It's 33.33% chance of dying against 0%. I don't think mafia would start with something like this.

[Nash]

At the time of my confirmation 5/7 confirmed.
Meaning 1 player confirmed and decided not to post.

I think that indicates scum being in Varsono and Hellbook

this is a likely town post and if they're telling the truth we narrowed down at least 1 mafia pretty quick.

I agree with the town ping. Disagree with the scumtell.

[Nash]

VOTE: hellbook

I will vote hellbook now for my reasons mentioned in my last set of posts.

Just so you know, hellbooks was the last player to confirm. Not sure why no one pointed this out.

[Nash]

Just so you know, hellbooks was the last player to confirm. Not sure why no one pointed this out.

Huh? i like confirmed immediately. i just didn't check the game thread. lol.

Doesn't matter.

At the time of my confirmation 5/7 confirmed.
Meaning 1 player confirmed and decided not to post.

I think that indicates scum being in Varsono and Hellbook

this is a likely town post and if they're telling the truth we narrowed down at least 1 mafia pretty quick.

Koba's wording here suggests he still considered the possibility of scum!hellbooks even when the six other players posted at 6/7 confirmations. That's bad and looks scummy. His subsequent posting also makes me doubt my initial townlean on him.

Nominate: DkKoba

for now.

[Nash]

I didn't realise I hammered Koba there.. Hopefully I didn't hurt our chances too much and disappoint the test administrators.

I believe we should come to a solid consensus on who town is before killing someone today.

Assuming pure randomness, the chances of picking (T,T) is almost as much as picking (T,S), and picking (S,S) is negligible.
I think a good course of action would be to let the consensus town come to an agreement on who the scummiest players are each day (scum will have to be as reasonable as possible in (T,S), which will benefit town) and put them up as nominations, like a townbloc. This should give us a good mechanical advantage IMO and I'd like to hear what everyone has to say about it.

[Nash]

Wrong usage of

"mechanical"

, but an advantage nonetheless

[Nash]

A lot happened. I'll post my thoughts soon

[Nash]

I'm pretty sure both scum exist in the nom pool. Gut town pings from Varsoon and Yukino. Hellbook's 143 and DkKoba's unrestrained posting make me townlean both of them as well.

That narrows it down to Dunn and Raya.

So, I suppose my question is this:
If everyone in the pool is town by your take and you think I'm town:
What makes Nash and Yukino scum?

If I'm correct and the pool is entirely town and you're town then Nash and Yukino would have to be scum by PoE. But Nash is scummy for that quick lynch and I find it difficult to believe that he didn't check before voting (although maybe I'm paranoid of accidentally quick lynching). 139 seems like busy work. Yukino is just null to me so purely PoE if this is the case.

I didn't quick kill anyone. What scum agenda do you find in that hammer? Why would scum!me think doing that is in anyway beneficial?

i townread raya and kind of townread dkkoba, nothing from the replacement, null on dunn, yukino varsoon nash none are great, probably null scum to scum. idk. so... yeah. that's why i'm voting dunn.

pedit well they're the answer to your q.

Why do you townread Raya?

[Nash]

let's kill someone already

Who are your top two townreads?

[Nash]

My biggest suspects are Nash and Yukino

If Yukino is null here, then that would imply you townread Raya to some extent. Do you?

[Nash]

Yes I do

[Nash]

If we manage to guess two towns, we shoot up to 90%.
My guess right now is Yukino and DkKoba

wow.

Sorry town, I wasn't able to get a feel of the game so I replaced out.

[Nash]

GG

[Nash]

Thanks for modding, Nahdia!