976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[Akarin]

First!

VOTE: DoubtingThomas
Sheeped me into the game on what was honestly a very weak case.

[Akarin]

I'm scumreading you.

—Akarin

VOTE: DoubtingThomas

[Akarin]

Yeah but we're on page 2 now, RVS gloves are off.

[Akarin]

That's less funny though...


It's this reaction:

Not sure if it's real thought to... scum read me for you voting me before i even posted? How did you expect me to respond?

"Oh! You are voting me before I even posted? Why are you scum reading me?"

Doesn't make sense, right?

VOTE: skye

Regardless of whether or not you deem it appropriate I'm not sure there's much point to you arguing with this, it's not a factual "On no you ditten" "Oh yes she did" kind of thing. You said what you said, it has a whiff of scum to me.

[Akarin]

are you a hydra?

No.

— Akarin

[Akarin]

Because I wanted somebody to suggest me someone to vote for

OK, vote for Akarin

Why should I?

Am I not good enough for you?

[Akarin]

Uh it's not you, it's me.

Should I be voting for this DoubtingThomas character?

That's what they all say *sniffle*

And it depends on how much you like early Day 1 Dastardly Deed -1 (DD-1?)

DT is my top scumread right now, but...

---

It's 5 to Perform a Dastardly Deed

I think it’s currently at
DT (3): Akarin, Gypyx, Mastina
gypyx (2): DT, SKYE
SKYE (1): PlusJOYED
NicCage (1): Nona

Not Voting: (2): Dunn, NicCage

---

For future reference, Page 2 DT vs. SKYE peak wagons were:
DT (3): Akarin, SKYE, Gypyx
SKYE (3): PlusJOYED, Mastina, DT

[Akarin]

also but what?

But putting you at DD-1 isn't something Nic should do on a whim.

[Akarin]

Well yeah if I vote it's on me. But would you vote for him? Is he a D1DD-1 for you, or just a D1DD-2?

I don't think it's a question of read strength so much as playstyle, strategy, and how spicy you're feeling. The game is smaller than I'm used to. I think in a 13p I probably would, but we have 1 Mistaken Dastardly Deed instead of 3 here so taking more time to look at past games and get real contributions from everyone Day 1 seems more important, and if DT is groupscum and we Mob Justice them correctly, doing it too early leaves less room to look for associations with the partner.

So no, I wouldn't, but an excitable spicy corner of my heart really wants to, especially in light of the 1v1 declaration.

Both because it seems like an over-reaction to pressure, and because I think it'd generate some interesting interactions from the other players.

[Akarin]

Like the run of posts starting with post 108, I think DT

does

actually have a point but is also hugely overselling it.

The overselling it seems even more suspicious to me.

But I'm also pretty okay with a Gypyx elimination at the moment.

[Akarin]

I think it’s currently at
DT (3): Akarin, Gypyx, Mastina
gypyx (2): DT, SKYE
SKYE (1): PlusJOYED
NicCage (1): Nona

Not Voting: (2): Dunn, NicCage

---

For future reference, Page 2 DT vs. SKYE peak wagons were:
DT (3): Akarin, SKYE, Gypyx
SKYE (3): PlusJOYED, Mastina, DT

1 scum in akarin/gypxy/mastina

and 1 in skye/plustjoyed/nona/dunn/niccage i think

What about the votecounts makes you think this?

i can go with akarin/gypyx/mastina very not likely to w/w

Also why?

[Akarin]

we have 1 Mistaken Dastardly Deed instead of 3 here

Um, not 1 instead of 3, it's 2 instead of 3. Points stands, just said wrong number.

[Akarin]

that's interesting

considering that ari also expected to be read better by you, i guess it's likely true.

VOTE: NicCage

So, does Nic's recent posting make you feel better or worse about him?

And what do you think of Gypyx's questions about Nic's posting, you seem like you might have a perspective closer to Gypyx's?

[Akarin]

I mean. I just find it less likely for 2/2 wolves to get on me 5 pages into the game. I am more likely to see at least 1 wolf is in the 3, although it's not an impossibility to have both wolves to not have voted me. regardless, i independently scum read xygypx

There's like a 64% (?) chance for any random group of 3 to have a scum in them at this size, right?

Do you actually think it's more likely than a random set of 3 players?

[Akarin]

@ PlusJOYED

What do you think of the DoubtingThomas/Gypyx/NicCage?

[Akarin]

Also why is akarin in null? He's pretty towny imo

She. And really when there are only 2 scum in the game, handing out townreads to everyone else but me and the 2 scumreads makes that null realistically a lean scum on TGP's part.

[Akarin]

@DT

I mean. I just find it less likely for 2/2 wolves to get on me 5 pages into the game. I am more likely to see at least 1 wolf is in the 3, although it's not an impossibility to have both wolves to not have voted me. regardless, i independently scum read xygypx

There's like a 64% (?) chance for any random group of 3 to have a scum in them at this size, right?

Do you actually think it's more likely than a random set of 3 players?

If you take 3 random players, 18/28 possible 2-person scumteams, or 64% will have 1 scum within a set of 3 players.

Given this, do you think your "at least 1 in 3" is

more

likely than that random 64% chance?

[Akarin]

I mean, obviously we're talking about reading the game, I just mean that if I said "Slots 1, 2, and 3 likely contain at least 1 scum" on post 1, I'd be more likely to be right than not, so the kind of logic you were doing in that post is unhelpful and kind of bad, which is what a few people have been trying to say to you I think.

Do you think any push on a town player is >rand wolf agenda?

[Akarin]

You know, I think Nic might be my biggest town read. I'm never voting Nic today.

[Akarin]

yes. >rand wolf agenda if 3 ppl (2 votes away from maj) stack up less than 3 pages into the game?

that's what i've been saying. what is the point of this question?

The point is me trying to figure out your thought process, you were wanting me to engage with you earlier when I didn't have much to actually ask you, why the resistance to it now?

So do you think a wagon getting to DD-2 on page 3 is unusual?

[Akarin]

@Mastina, TGP

I'm gonna fight you on NicCage if it comes to that, but any interest in doing this with me instead?

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Akarin]

SIGN YOUR POSTS

[Akarin]

So the real question is, if we get a Mafia flip rather than a 3rd party flip, is this a townslip for Gypyx?

I'm kind of leaning yes.

[Akarin]

Akarin / nic might be the team

Akarin, while you're here, why did you assume 2 scum vs 7 town?

Because it literally says that in the setup.

5 3rd parties of which 2 of them share a wincon and a PT is a 2-player scumteam. But we know which it is as soon as we get a non-town flip.

[Akarin]

It is as far as scumhunting goes.

[Akarin]

Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.

[Akarin]

Yeah, akarin's reaction doesn't feel genuine, like, he's making kinda convoluted explainations and trying to deflect the pressure

She

And what don't you understand?

[Akarin]

@DoubtingThomas, PlusJOYED, & NicCage

Do you 3 agree with this logic?

Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.

Gypyx quoted himself saying I was towny in the post where he voted me, then doubled down on the argument after the setup was quoted by someone other than me, defending me basically immediately after he voted.

[Akarin]

you didn't ask me, but i agree

The Empress

My deepest apologies, Your Majesty.

I just wanted specific yes/no responses from the people on the Gypyx wagon in particular but of course I'm happy to hear what everyone else thinks too.

— Akarin

[Akarin]

Yeah, akarin's reaction doesn't feel genuine, like, he's making kinda convoluted explainations and trying to deflect the pressure

She

And what don't you understand?

Sorry, and wdym by "not understeand"?

What's convoluted? I thought I explained everything pretty clearly and I'd like to clear up any confusion.

[Akarin]

yes. >rand wolf agenda if 3 ppl (2 votes away from maj) stack up less than 3 pages into the game?

that's what i've been saying. what is the point of this question?

The point is me trying to figure out your thought process, you were wanting me to engage with you earlier when I didn't have much to actually ask you, why the resistance to it now?

So do you think a wagon getting to DD-2 on page 3 is unusual?

I think there are like better questions to have asked me if you really wanted to sort my thought process out. I mean that's like a very very small portion out of a lot of posts I made

I want to ask what's an example of a better question but that feels like a waste of time since I can't imagine you giving an answer I'd find helpful. At least give it some thought though? If you were in my shoes, what would you ask you about the larger portion of your posts?

The point, for me, is to look at things you've said that don't make sense to me and try to figure out if you got to that point by a town thought process or a scum thought process. And honestly if it's a town thought process leading to a bad conclusion I'd like to at least make you rethink it, but that's secondary because most people can't really be talked into reconsidering things if they don't decide to do it themselves.

So could you answer whether or not you think a wagon getting to DD-2 on page 3 is unusual?

[Akarin]

Ahem

@PlusJOYED

Do you agree with

Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.

Gypyx quoted himself saying I was towny in the post where he voted me, then doubled down on the argument after the setup was quoted by someone other than me, defending me basically immediately after he voted.

Asking about the logic, not if you'll vote Dunn right now.

[Akarin]

Okay, so everyone but Mastina has posted since I voted Dunn, and Mastina had him as like her #2 scumread I believe.

Gypyx:Immediately votes me, pushes the scumslip thing even after The Empress defends me, and asks again if no one's interested in voting me today. Also

And btw, i've played a game with dunnstral recently, he was about as inactive as here and town, so i'm not sure this is AI

NicCage: Votes Dunn, mentions that he expected Dunn to behave differently after Dunn's initial suspicion of Nic rather than mostly responding when he's the target of someone else's reads. Asks Mastina about Dunn's usual play and what towniness she expected but didn't see. Nic obviously took time to look at Dunn's posts, activity elsewhere on the site, etc and make a big post on it before placing this vote.

Then Nic moves vote to TGP after TGP's further push on Nic.

DoubtingThomas: Votes Dunn for hardly trying.

TheGoldenParadox: Is fine to compromise on Dunn later but says Nic is the better vote today.

PlusJOYED:

i'll go nic

That's it, despite me specifically asking for his opinion.

SKYEscrapers--tris: Not voting Dunn because she remembers him as being someone who isn't a very active player.

[Akarin]

I'd also like to say that I'm not voting Dunn because of lack of activity despite people being quick to characterize it that way.

I have more reason to think every single other player in the game is town than I do Dunn, and Dunn works in any possible scumteam IMO compared to every other player having a few people I wouldn't pair them with. That's a related but different issue than inactivity = scum.

[Akarin]

dunn's interactions are not great but at the same time i don't have enough posting from them to really be on board a dunn wagon
akarin what do you think about nic

Ignoring deadline compromises and assuming Dunn never gets replaced, at what point in the game is having no interactions enough to get you on a Dunn wagon?

Nic is actually one of my top townreads right now and I won't vote for him.

My hot take is that I could actually see TGP vs. Nic as Town v. Town.

TGP, I think your reasoning against Nic looks very much based on that very early game stuff and pretty confbiased for the more recent posts. "Unproductive and inflammatory shitposting" isn't at all how I'd describe his more recent play, and your interaction here:

Because the you

[Dunn]

-Nic interactions scream scum-scum and your play is highly lackluster; I'd like to think I know you as a player well enough to reliably get a read on when you're town and this game I'm not seeing the town at all.

I usually can see you as town from your first three or so posts at latest, generally speaking.

You've more than that and those townvibes are nonexistent.

so, let me get this straight. mastina is explaining a scumread on dunnstral based, largely, on her reading of the interactions between you two as S/S, and yet you completely ignore the

post you quoted

and simply vote dunnstral with mediocre reasons at best, and ask mastina to explain dunn further
like this screams "bussing your scumpartner for towncred" and it's terrible

mis-represents Mastina, to my reading.

I can see where Nic is coming from in voting for you over this, but I can also imagine it coming from confbias. Mastina did mention the SvS thing elsewhere, I can see how it could stand out in memory, but that didn't look to be the entirety of her reasoning.

[Akarin]

Caught up, my heart is sill in the Dunn vote but I don't think my brain is.

@NicCage: Did your PM say 90% chance of being TOWN or 90% of not being Mafia or what?

[Akarin]

@Dunn:

What's your reasoning on Mastina?

[Akarin]

The reasoning you expressed about the 3rd parties not counting as scum, that's kinda weird imo, like, because the size of a scumteam is 1, you don't include it?

If you're looking for a group of 2, it doesn't matter if they're Mafia or a 3rd party. You can still look for associations.

We know 2 of the 3rd parties would share a chat, the others can't be hunted for by associations anyway and there's not going to be 5 anti-town win conditions even in the lots-of-3rd-parties scenario.

[Akarin]

Well this changes things.

I would have taken Mastina for a setup reader, are you actually not?

[Akarin]

Yeah, I'm still absolutely not voting Nic, this play doesn't make any sense at all from a Scum NicCage perspective.

And I'm a bit suspicious that TGP is leaning into that confbias narrative I suggested when I said TGP-Nic might be TvT. Recent posts are pretty over the top, but I'm not sure that isn't just wanting to push for the kill excited town.

I'm actually gonna
VOTE: PlusJOYED

Feel like that slot has the highest chance of flipping scum right now. You can see him checking out of the game and only responding to the most recent posts to avoid a prod on the last couple posts, but supports a wagon (without voting it) on the last pseudo-prod-dodge. I know that's not much of a "case" but about to lurk-out town I feel like would be less likely to support a wagon when they have no idea what's going on, while scum would be telling themselves they'd come back later and justify it. And really I don't see any reason to think Plus so towny, don't really get where that read comes from.

I'd also be willing to consider TGP or Mastina but I'm conflicted on both, whole worldview was kind of shaken up here.

[Akarin]

I'll try to be here to switch my vote around before deadline if needed, but can't promise that today, I'll either just barely make it, or just miss it. Hoping we get that Plus extension, but if not this is the best vote.

[Akarin]

wooh! 10 minutes to deadline but I'm here.

I'm thinking more and more Dunn is town from how he's handling this mess, Nic, although I was with you before.

Do we have enough to Speed Dastardly Deed Mastina?

Is that deadline extension a sure thing?

[Akarin]

Dunnstral (3): , mastina, Nic, Gypyx
Plus (2), Gypyx, Akarin, Dunn
Gypyx (1): PlusJOYED
NicCage (1): TheGoldenParadox

not voting (2): DoubtingThomas, SKYE

[Akarin]

I did it too! But the numbers in () are right on mine, Gpypx moved.

I didn't actually mean to leave it like that, not trying to bully you Gypyx, just ironic similar mistake.

[Akarin]

Are you serious?

[Akarin]

I'm trying to decide if the extension is a sure thing or not.

Gypyx, you realize you're singlehandedly causing the elimination of Dunn if this happens, right?

[Akarin]

I don't like Gypyx openwolfing as probable town.

Not getting pushed back into it like this, if we don't get the extension I guess we all fucked up, but I won't do it.

I'm gonna hang back and cross my fingers for the extension.

[Akarin]

Probably.

Gypyx, with you, Nic, and TGP we had the votes to murderize Plus as well as Dunn, he wasn't our only option.

Why'd you keep your vote on Dunn despite saying you really would prefer Plus?

[Akarin]

Idk, i understood the deadline thingy as : if someone replaces plus, we get more time, so not guaranteed

And what's openwolfing btw?

Basically I mean you're being so scummy as to practically be claiming Mafia. And yet I think you are most likely Town.

[Akarin]

Nic

There is no good reason to go Mastina without the Dunn=Scum

Cause it’s mentioned in the setup, either 2 scum and 7 town, or 4 town and 5 non-town, 2 of which share a wincon

Well this changes things.

If the game's two scum and seven town, then obviously there's a maximum of one nontown in Nic/Dunn since schadd_ wouldn't make a scum-scum neighborhood and I doubt they're lying about the existence of one.

But if the game's four town and 5 nontown, then I'd expect both of them to be nontown here, presumably with players like DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers filling in the gaps (because 5 nontown allows for scum to legitimately scumhunt).

When it comes to Nic btw: in the neighborhood if Dunnstral is scum (and all signs point to this), Nic cannot be scum with Dunn. In a 7-2 world, this clears Nic as Nic would by necessity be town (due to no scum-scum neighborhoods).
But in a 4-5 world, Nic's probably not town because his claim seems very much like a 3p claim, actually. The sorts of things he's doing don't seem to make sense as town, but fit as some form of 3p.

I don't like how Mastina's read on me changes here.

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies? We don't know for sure yet what Dunn's role will say. Maybe the word neighbor won't even appear in it.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads. It's a great excuse to not have to explain yourself in any substantial way.

Sure is funny, since Mastina has put forward Dunn and I and S/S this entire game, with no change. Until now, until I've made it much less profitable. Because if Dunn flips scum, she knows that if she's still suspicious of me it's going to turn into a slugfest between the two of us. And if I lose and am eliminated, everything I said before will be justified, and it'll become very difficult for her to win. Much better to start backing off on it now.

???

You really think this stuff is only true if Dunn is scum with Mastina?

[Akarin]

TGP wasn't going on Dunn either.

You moved your vote off Plus with this post

VOTE: dunnstraal

Not a fan of this vote, but we need an exe, and i'm not taking risks about the deadline extension

While saying you didn't want Dunn, you were the one who was making Dunn seem inevitable. Your vote was the only vote of difference between the wagons.

And TGP wasn't voting Dunn either. Their vote stayed on Nic the whole time.

[Akarin]

Oh, TGP did go Dunn at the end, my bad.

Anyway, I was talking about from before these last 5 minutes.

[Akarin]

What is the Mastina argument without Dunn?

In the words of Noir Spiderman himself:

I don't like how Mastina's read on me changes here.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads. It's a great excuse to not have to explain yourself in any substantial way.

Sure is funny, since Mastina has put forward Dunn and I and S/S this entire game, with no change. Until now, until I've made it much less profitable. Because if Dunn flips scum, she knows that if she's still suspicious of me it's going to turn into a slugfest between the two of us. And if I lose and am eliminated, everything I said before will be justified, and it'll become very difficult for her to win. Much better to start backing off on it now.

How is this any less true if Dunn were to flip Town? You think people wouldn't go after you after a Dunn Town flip?

[Akarin]

Sure!

VOTE: Mastina

[Akarin]

Dunn, when did you start townreading Nic?

[Akarin]

I think for a disturbingly large number of players:

Dunn flips scum -> Nic is scumbuddies with Dunn and threw him under the bus.
Dunn flips town -> Nic forced it through and is getting away with too much, obvscum.

I'm not saying you should back off out of fear, I'm saying your logic doesn't particularly point to Mastina + Dunn as the only scum team where that has a scum narrative.

[Akarin]

I may be weird but I think Nic + Dunn is TvT.

You're not weird.

[Akarin]

The earlier clarification:

@Akarin
My role says 90% town and 10% mafia. I have assumed that mafia could mean any non-town, given the possible setups, but the wording of the role pm gives no further clarification.

Where does Nic assume 3rd Party game before this recent exchange after Math joins the game? I can't find it.

Anyway, Nic reads like he's kind of been on tilt about the Dunn wagon collapsing today, and the Mastina-Dunn thing was originally a scum assumption on Nic's part I believe.

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

[Akarin]

@Math

He says there could be 4 town and 5 third party

Is this what you mean?

[Akarin]

IMO you're being crazy here, MathBlade.

That idea is in the setup post of the game, I was thinking about it a lot in early game too. Yes Nic should have clarified with schadd, but that's not an assumption that it's a 3rd party setup, it's him bringing it up as a possibility.

You're treating something very very thin like it's an open-and-shut case and it's just not.

[Akarin]

@Math

I'm not disagreeing about what you're saying about town confirming Dunn, I'm just arguing that I don't see not seeing that as evidence of Nic being scum.

[Akarin]

Mastina, why is TGP locktown?

[Akarin]

You’ve either been proven to not follow mechanics, you’re actively attempting to poison the well against any VT claims, and are actively trying to shoehorn the game down one pathway.

At a minimum you’re tunneled town

. And that’s if I put you in the best light possible. I just don’t see it. It’s much simpler to say that you are scum who knows Dunn is town or is bussing Dunn for credit. Occam’s Razor.

I clearly disagree with you about how Occam's Razor works.

[Akarin]

@Nic

I'm absolutely not voting for Dunn today.

But I promise you, I'm not giving Dunn some permanent clear. If we flip a Mafia member, if we have 4 Town players dead in DDoLo, whatever, I swear I'm not giving him some permanent pass. But it doesn't make sense to me to Dastardly Deed him today, even if you disregard my townread of his response to the pressure. I'm reading everything you type though and I promise you it isn't just being ignored.

But like you, I'm not going to do some big homework exercise just because you asked me to here. I've thought about it, I actually agree on some of the earlier stuff, but I don't see this as being as problematic as you do in light of new information. I also don't think me trying to explain Dunn's behavior for him out loud is a productive idea in general right now. Anyway, just want to say that I'm not ignoring you even if I'm not going to vote the way you want me to today.

Maybe it'd be better to move on to talking about other stuff than MathBlade pushing you and you pushing Dunn.

[Akarin]

Mastina, why is TGP locktown?

Btw since the MBOS large has ended, can I say I'm pretty sure this is the same TGP-town from that game, here?

He's vibing the same way he was with me that game, thus his repeat presence of pocketing me.

^I can maybe elaborate more on that when more lucid.

I'd really appreciate that, I don't understand why a vibe like that leads to as confident a read as you're saying you have. Have you played in/read any TGP scum games to compare?

[Akarin]

Math, I just meant that I think tunneling town is a simpler and more likely explanation.

Towns have been known to tunnel from time to time.

[Akarin]

Nic, who are your top 4-5 town reads? Maybe approach it from the PoE angle.

[Akarin]

I do, but I'm torn between worrying I'm putting too much stock in 1 thing and thinking that putting a lot of stock in 1 weird thing can be effective.

Gypyx's play has been downright bizarre as either alignment I think, and that makes me want to be cautious. The behavior around voting Dunn near the deadline

really

rubs me the wrong way but I do not understand why Scum goes after me with that scumslip argument just as I'm starting a wagon on Dunn when it was previously looking to be Gypyx vs. DT for the Dastardly Deed.

I think obviously Gypyx expected the scumslip argument to be more effective than it was, but I can't see the scum motive for jumping on it like that given the state of the game.

[Akarin]

Bizarre as either alignment generally means 3P if it’s an option.

My thoughts are Mastina, Nic, and G are all 3Ps.

The thing is, I can't imagine what 3P wincon makes any sense for his pushing me at that time and doubling down on it after Tris defended me. That whole segment of game just doesn't seem like a scum plan to me no matter how I look at it.

Here's the start of what I'm talking about.

[Akarin]

I don't think this is productive, let's talk about Gypyx, Mastina, and TGP.

[Akarin]

Yeah, Nic, I get your argument about Dunn and how that compares to Math's push on you re: lack-of-scumhunting.

I don't think that angle is actually important to reading Math though, and I don't think pushing it further is going to achieve much if anything in getting a better read on him.

I actually think the more interesting thing is whether these little pushes at you from him to keep this argument going (like in his response to me about it) come from a scum shit-stirring POV or if that's just who he is. For that I need to spend some serious time on meta, or trust Mastina, so it's kind of tied in with other things. If Mastina is town, I trust her. If she's scum not-with-Math I trust her. So basically if Mastina thinks this is normal town Math, I don't want to Mob Justice Math without a Mastina scum flip, at least not barring a lot more stuff later on.

[Akarin]

Pedit agreed with that from A except how Mastina scum makes me more likely to be scum

Not what I said. I'm saying that Mastina being scum is almost a necessary condition for you being scum, IF she still townreads you after this exchange.

And for the record, I think these responses to Nic are hurting rather than helping. This continuing isn't as one-sided on Nic's side as you think. Those kind of responses are likely to antagonize people.

[Akarin]

Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.

Why did you not consider Nic + Dunn a possibility?

Why did I not consider a Gypyx + Nic + Dunn scumteam in a 9 player game?

[Akarin]

day talk is enabled everywhere.

Also, Math, I don't believe we've ever played together but I could be forgetting.

[Akarin]

And TGP wasn't going on joyed

Pedit : ah okay, well why do you think i'm town then if i'm scumclaiming? @akarin

This hasn't been answered i think

It's been answered both before and after you said it. I'm townreading you for the reasons I was townreading you before yesterday, and the reasons I was hoping to talk with Math about before he got all tinfoil hat.

[Akarin]

Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.

Why did you not consider Nic + Dunn a possibility?

Why did I not consider a Gypyx + Nic + Dunn scumteam in a 9 player game?

Yes. 5 3P is valid they could all be scum.

Because if they all have different wincons they aren't a team.

How does that give Gypyx a scum (or scummy 3P) motive for the push I was talking about?

[Akarin]

killing dunn is probably a necessity at this point regardless of his alignment. we need information there. him or niccage.

Why do you think those 2 give significantly more information than other eliminations? If Dunn flips town, what does it tell you?

Also, I really don't think a neighborhood is unlikely in a 9p game. Anyone else want to back me up on this.

And while I'm at it, I'll answer my earlier question, I really don't think a wagon getting pretty close to the Dastardly Deed is that rare on page 3 on this site.

[Akarin]

@Math: So do you think Gypyx is more towny from the section of game I was pointing at?

If not, why do you think he plays that way as 3P or scum, what's the agenda?

[Akarin]

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

[Akarin]

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
would also be okay with me

[Akarin]

If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."

I don't think anyone is arguing we shouldn't eliminate 3rd parties.

[Akarin]

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
would also be okay with me

Okay why? If Mastina is town, I’d agree with her TGP read.

Because if I were a 2-shot dayvig, Mastina and TGP would be my hero shot right now.

And because Mastina hasn't given much reasoning on TGP and I trust that read less than I trust her read on you, because in your case I'm just asking if you'd respond that way because of your personality, rather than asking for vague town vibes.

[Akarin]

Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin

I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.

[Akarin]

Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin

I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.

Why vote there then?

To see what happens, and because it was the way of answering Math's question that most amused me.

I'll be around to move it elsewhere.

[Akarin]

Math, yes and they'd be 3rd Parties rather than actual Mafia, you'd just be able to hunt for them via associations like you hunt for Mafia (and I would assume they'd be likely to be the players with the most anti-town wincon due to preserving the game actually being a game of "mafia."

Mastina made the same point.

[Akarin]

If by "hoping not to solve" you mean I think they're TvT as I've said multiple times?

[Akarin]

Explain it like I am 5.

If Nic and Dunn were a scumteam, then I don't know wtf they're doing. This doesn't look like a bus to me. It's not so much bussing as actively trying to get his partner killed in that scenario. Like, why?

I think it's

possible

that Nic and Dunn are both 3rd parties who share "some mutuality in wincon" but don't realize that, but that would have to mean that Nic as a 3rd party came up with a lie that implied there were no 3rd parties in the game, said it to Nic early in the game, clarified two or three times that it did actually preclude 3rd parties, when he knows 3rd parties will be flipped sooner or later if they exist. Nic doesn't seem that bad at the game to me. He's already admitted to making mistakes, why double down on the one that's being used as an argument against killing the person he wants killed?

If Nic's role is true, then Dunn can't be 3rd party and is less likely than average to be scum. I don't think there's 0% chance of Dunn being Mafia in this case, but I think it's low enough I really really don't want to Dastardly Deed him today. Plus gut.

Nic's push on Dunn looks exactly like town tunneling to me.

[Akarin]

Mastina, do you still townread Math as hard as you were before, especially the couple pages before this (when you get to it.)

Also, I'd really like to hear your reasoning on TGP in more detail, and if you've ever played with them as scum.

[Akarin]

@mastina
Regarding the first paragraph
No he cannot.
Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P.

He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

You keep arguing about what he can

think

like you assume it's impossible for him to have made a mistake.

Why does 3P Nic clarify his role the way he did?

[Akarin]

Yes, I think he's town too!

I'm glad we could all come together on this!

[Akarin]

I know, but your logic is exactly my argument except I think he's town.

I do not undestrand why the heck 3P Nic does most of what he's done this game. Or Mafia Nic for that matter.

[Akarin]

Like who fake claims to their neighbor that they have a 90% chance of being town and a 10% chance of being scum, then tunnels that neighbor, then repeatedly clarifies that their info rules out that neighbor being a 3rd party in a game with a mod-declared chance of there being 3rd parties and no "Mafia."

He could have lied.

[Akarin]

He couldn't have said "oops, it actually says 90% chance of being town-aligned" and I just interpreted that as 10% Mafia" or something?

[Akarin]

@Dunn

How much did you two get into clarifying the specifics of the claimed Informed info in your PT? When did he clarify?

[Akarin]

Like who fake claims to their neighbor that they have a 90% chance of being town and a 10% chance of being scum, then tunnels that neighbor, then repeatedly clarifies that their info rules out that neighbor being a 3rd party in a game with a mod-declared chance of there being 3rd parties and no "Mafia."

He could have lied.

Actually no, he couldn’t.

Dunn outed him as saying it in the hood.

If he contradicted Dunn he gets eliminated faster than anything.

His play doesn’t even line up with his posting in thread.

When Dunn outed him as saying it, why did Nic "crumb" that info first? Why did it come out the way it did?

And if Nic really thinks Dunn would flip scummy 3rd party, why would he agree it ruled out 3rd parties? He had time to clarify, and if he thought Dunn would flip 3rd party, Dunn was losing that 1v1 at the time if Nic hadn't agreed to that.

[Akarin]

If town, then he’d be much more interested in seeing a flip outside of Dunn having been reminded 3P is a thing.

So your argument is that town don't tunnel and get invested in their reads more than makes probabilistic sense. Got it.

[Akarin]

I don't really think that's worth your time Mastina, thanks. It answers the question I had and as you said, probably isn't that useful.

What do you think of MathBlade's play more recently?

[Akarin]

I'd expect scum/"scum" Nic to drop the tunnel in the face of evidence that people weren't buying it, it made less mechanical sense, and he had tons of opportunities to move his vote.

He seemed emotional and confbiased.

[Akarin]

@Math

Who other than Mastina do you think has played with you the most? (Including Ari or Tris in particular rather than just the hydra in general)?

[Akarin]

What stops a self-aligned faction from being called 'Mafia', and said self-aligned faction being explicitly antitown?
...
I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

I agree with you about the factions thing, that was the same "scumslip" I made earlier.

And sure, I guess there could be 1 player labeled "Mafia" but that seems very weird to me. The OP says the two would be self-aligned and just have mutuality in their wincon, so they couldn't

both

be Mafia and it seems kind of Bastard to label exactly 1 of those players Mafia but I guess it isn't literally impossible.

Anyway I think a lot of this has gotten

WAY

more focus than is healthy or relevant.

[Akarin]

I'm not allowed to do PoE?

[Akarin]

I'm not allowed to do PoE?

You are. You just have to be more convincing than eliminating Dunn or Nic.

Mafia is very much a game of charisma.

If you’re town you have your reads. It doesn’t quite well matter if you can’t explain it well enough.

So either A) You have to explain a fuck ton of stuff better about Nic’s claim and explain Dunn town to the thread’s satisfaction
Or
B) You have to explain someone else is more likely scum to outweigh that prior evidence.

That’s how mafia works.

Can you try being less of a condescending jerk please?

[Akarin]

Okay, I'm unwilling to vote for anyone but:
{SKYEscrapers, TheGoldenParadox(nona), mastina, MathBlade(PlusJOYED)}

I'll suck it up and vote for someone else if we have to for deadline but that's it.
TGP is my current top choice and I'd like someone to give a real reason why that's such a bad wagon that it's unthinkable.

Can some of the non-MathBlade people please chime in more?

Despite what Mastina says, it feels like he's sort of come in and taken over the game and we haven't been able to talk about anything else other than his current pushes since he joined.

[Akarin]

Sorry? I didn’t see how that could be condescending. I was trying to reach out in case you’re town.

It comes across to me like you informing me I don't have any charisma (maybe because I'm not loud or confident enough?) and then explaining to me how mafia works like I'm 5.

[Akarin]

Agree about the 3p talk.

TGP, ignoring the mechanics, what do you think is scummy about Nic's play?

[Akarin]

from play, nic seems to me like scum as well

Sell me on why Nic's play is scum?

[Akarin]

Shut up Math, I want to hear from TGP

[Akarin]

Math, you made over 6 pages worth of posts in a 30 page game in 24 hours.

People are coasting and it's easy for them to miss or "miss" questions in the noise.

I want to see TGP actually explain their thoughts before the day ends.

[Akarin]

@akarin i've explained my case on nic a few times in my iso. plus, all of his voting now looks like desperate scum trying to avoid being limmed. also, we have just a few hours until deadline.

I see mostly stuff from quite a while back that other people have refuted at various times and I'm wondering what of that is still in your reasoning and if you have any responses to people who've argued against the stuff you keep requoting?

[Akarin]

Math, do you really feel like a game where everyone fights with you and no one has any interactions with each other makes scumhunting easier?

[Akarin]

YOU ARE NOT HELPING.

You're making it hard for me to get anything out of anyone else and you're honestly really hurting engagement in the game.

[Akarin]

Mine if no one else, but I think we've been more dead in the period after you joined but where you were asleep or whatever than we would have been this close to deadline before then.

I'm glad you aren't a lurker, but you're not helping as much as you keep telling us you are.

[Akarin]

TGP:
Do you still believe Nic-Dunn could be scum bussing?

Why do you think claiming a player is by-mechanics less likely to be scum and voting them anyway is more likely to come from scum than town?

Do you have any other arguments about Nic being scum by play? And if so, where?

[Akarin]

Math, I have no interest in interacting with your "logic" post you keep pushing. It's irrelevant to me and I'm not wasting time fighting with you about it.

But

TGP has said Nic only did "inflamatory shitposting" which was obviously untrue even when they said it as multiple people pointed out.
TGP called Nic newbscum, which was pointed out wasn't true.
TGP didn't like the Dunn-Nic initial interactions which are explained by the neighborhood.
TGP said Nic was deliberately playing too scum to be scum which they later agreed wasn't a good argument themselves.

[Akarin]

TGP's stated reasoning is much thinner than anyone is acknowledging.

Maybe there's more to it, maybe there isn't.

I think I'd have gotten better responses with my initial "sell me" approach but you were having none of that "bullshit" and had to throw yourself in the middle.

[Akarin]

It's not grounded in logic or rational reasoning, and while that would generally be a towntell, it makes no sense from a town!nic perspective

I believe town nic is capable of tunneling and valuing his own reads above probability. Is there a reason you don't think this is true? Like what's special about this situation that makes it different?

whereas it does from a scum!nic perspective (especially as a convenient excuse in the likely occurrence dunn flips town.)

This is the part I really don't get with this whole thing.

Why

would scum!nic push so hard on Dunn of all people?

nic's vote switching recently isn't townie. it makes no sense, from town!nic pov, to jump from dunn to math and back, whereas the confusion it sows makes a lot more sense for nic!scum.

What confusion?
And why does scum!nic want to move his vote off Dunn and onto Math

now

but wouldn't when everyone was pushing him to vote Mastina earlier?

You and I don't jive. Obviously I am responding to your post above. 'fake claim' and 'lying' aren't truthtelling. I am sick of you seizing every single tiny insignificant opportunity to try to paint me as scum.

VOTE: MathBlade

I'll do whatever. It doesn't have to be Dunn I guess. I'm not engaging with Math anymore D1.

like what is Dunnstral doing? He's literally posting 1 post while others are posting like at least 5 times? Not that activity should be used to scum read people but this is like to the point where he just simply seems like he has no interest in game? He will never leave the PoE like he deserves and we could sort of clear nic based on whether or not dunnstral flips a scum rolecard. I also have this huge gut feeling that he's most likely to have a team right now based on how the thread slowly moving away from his lynch over niccage's even though t here's not much point in that and would like a dunnstral flip first.

You are being silly. Almost all of the push on me has come from Math. If you are convinced by him, tell me why.

VOTE: Dunnstral

@akarin does this look like it comes from town?

Honestly, yes. Math has been getting under my skin too. Can you figure out what about those posts scumpings you?

[Akarin]

Do you want TGP to answer those or shall I?

Why would I want you to answer those for TGP?

Regardless of your answer, please don't. I know what you think, I want to hear what they think.

Though I increasingly doubt they'll actually answer.

[Akarin]

Ari, has either of your partners been active in the hydra PT these past 2 days?

Also, for the record, the section of game you're talking about is the reason Gypyx isn't totally lock town for me, but the earlier section that I linked to Math at some point, back when Gypyx was making the scumslip argument against me, felt very Town to me. That's the source of my (and Math's I think?) town on Gypyx. When you get a chance, would you look at that section of game again?

But that's way less important than catching up of course.

[Akarin]

@Mastina

Who do you think are likely partners for SKYE? Who do you think is really unlikely?

[Akarin]

@Dunn
What changed with TGP for you between

I don't actually think nic is scum

I'd like to get TGP or mastina

and

Townlean: Mathblade, Dunn, Akarin
Null: TGP
Scumlean: Gypyx, mastina, DT, Nic

This is my list, except I have Nic as town and DT as Null, and swap you with me

?
And is there anything about Gypyx other than his behavior around the fake deadline that pings you?

[Akarin]

akarin is almost too wifomy to be a wolf with that mathblade kill. but i prefer akarin kill still

How come?

[Akarin]

TGP, any thoughts about the game today?

[Akarin]

cuz i read the posts i scraped

And that leads to me being your preferred Dastardly Deed for what reason?

[Akarin]

Yeah, Dunn, actually I have been waiting for a couple things before putting a vote down or saying much.

I get your impatience but I don't want the day to be over that fast, want to see how some people talk to some other people. Doesn't need to be 10 days, but I'd rather it not be like 1 page.

And it's weird how silent this game has gotten to me.

[Akarin]

It's been much worse recently, Mastina.

And we're 4 IRL days into the day and TGP has yet to say

anything

related to the game. The prod dodge was a vote count correction but they've been active on site.

Gypyx likewise isn't thinking or engaging nearly as much as he was on D1. DT isn't reading the posts he linked or short responses to them.

Engagement is way down, and yeah it's partly my fault, but I really wanted to see some engagement from TGP in particular.

[Akarin]

Gypyx, you should also be pushing Mastina by the way, she made the same scumslip I did.

[Akarin]

I've also been feeling like I really need to put some time in and read and old Gypyx game, don't want to coast on my townread there, especially given his approach to... NK analysis here.

Gypyx, do you have a town game you think is particularly similar to your play in this game?

[Akarin]

Ari should be back soon, interested to see his catchup.

Sorry I didn't have anything in particular to ask you tris.

I have a Mastina meta question for Dunn/Ari but I don't want to ask it until after Ari has actually caught up.

[Akarin]

@DT
Among other places:

Given the game size, a D1 town win (from just one threat to the town) seems unlikely.
Given the small number of town in the game if there's 4 town, 3/4 mutually-exclusive-to-town seems unlikely.
Therefore, the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town is two.

schadd_ has stated that of the nontown, two will share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon.

It is not much of a leap from "the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town, is two", and "schadd stated that of the nontown, two share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon", to conclude that the two players who share a PT with mutuality in wincon, are the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon.

If you make that leap, then for all intents and purposes, the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon, who share a PT and have some mutuality in their wincon, are for all intents and purposes, Scum.

But the bigger point is that I feel like everyone sort of acknowledged it when I said this, moved on (other than maybe Gypyx) and now the "scumslip" is back to being an actual part of your/Gypyx's reasoning with no actual, forgive the harshness,

thought

going into it.

[Akarin]

Hey Empress Tris, has Ari been active in your PT again yet?

[Akarin]

uhm maybe i should come back later but like i re-read this three times and i dont get it? i had a long day at work. can you paraphrase?

I'm just pointing out that both Mastina and The Empress had the same logic I did regarding 2-scum-with-PT-and-commonality-of-wincon being equivalent to 2 Mafia for purposes of scumhunting.

Which was what Gypyx was calling a scumslip back whenever and at the time I had sort of thought we settled the logic of it and everyone moved past it except for him for some reason, but then I thought you were buying into it too.

[Akarin]

And Skye is eligible for a prod again.

[Akarin]

I mean.
I can answer any meta question about me and it'll still be accurate.
I don't lie about my meta; if anything, asking others about my meta is more of a way to judge the alignment of those others. If they're inaccurate, probably scum; if they're accurate, then it doesn't make them town but it's at least not a scum indicator.

You know, as soon as I typed that, I thought "Mastina is going to want to answer it herself but her answer will be both super-confident and not actually help me any."

It's like the one part of your meta I'm confident on!

[Akarin]

Tell Ari that if he doesn't post substance in (expired on 2020-11-22 16:24:08) I'm voting SKYE and not holding it against anyone who wants to lolhammer.

[Akarin]

The weirdest thing about Gypyx is I feel like we've already been over this thrice.

[Akarin]

Mastina, is your TGP townread just as solid as it was last time you mentioned it?

[Akarin]

Thank you Ari.

I appreciate it.

[Akarin]

So the thing I wanted to ask about Mastina, and I know she'll say she absolutely would but is town anyway, so I'll take that as given Mastina.

But do you, Ari, think scum!Mastina is afraid of MathBlade enough to pick him for the kill. Because Math and my arguing was pretty anti-town IMO and I was worrying about it over the night. And if Math had been in the game today it would have sapped the life out of the game even worse than the posting drought I think, so to me there's significant reason to leave him alive.

[Akarin]

Tris and Dunn, interested in your thoughts on that too.

[Akarin]

I agree Math was pretty clearly town, but his reads weren't great and he was absolutely killing my desire to engage with the game, like at all.

Mastina was his like 3rd or 4th scum pick I think, so he may have reevaluated onto her, but I also think leaving both him and me alive would have been good for making no one care about the game at all.

[Akarin]

I really haven't perceived Mastina as really running the game btw.

She makes long posts but I don't think people are especially taking her word as gospel.

[Akarin]

lol, yeah.

Mostly it's that I wanted to see how you reacted to Mastina and see how Mastina reacted to your reacting and that was just never happening all day.

Got to find time to read those Gypyx games because I don't trust my original sort as much as I used to but I don't really know what's going on there.

Don't understand Mastina's hard townread of TGP at all, how do you feel about that by the way?

[Akarin]

VOTE: DoubtingThomas

Thoughts?

[Akarin]

Reread Gypyx and looked at some of his games btw and TOWNREAD REAFFIRMED!

[Akarin]

We have just under 3 days, and I'll be around on all these days, but this is one of those things I'm not gonna explain why until some people like it or don't like it.

[Akarin]

akarin, you haven't really said anything about us today. why is that?

The Empress

Since Mastina opened the day with a vote on you, I've been waffling back and forth.

Overall I've liked your posts this game, Tris. I've been trying to figure out how much of people's scumread on Ari is activity and how true that actually is from him. I mean I know he's busy but you can try to read into how much people prioritize things, you know. I've been really uncertain of your slot and wanting to reevaluate other things first and see how it played out. Particularly the reaction from Ari on Mastina's vote and Mastina's reaction to that are things I was waiting for, and now I'm not entirely sure where I am on the two of you, but not in a way where I have any useful questions to ask that I haven't asked already.

Why the change of heart on Mastina?

[Akarin]

so, i should say that i would have been ok with a thomas vote, but suddenly some recent posts have been pinging town for me.

----------------------------------------------------

VOTE: gypyx

The Empress

Why gypyx?

[Akarin]

90% chance of being town and 10% chance of being scum? so more likely to be town than not scum? honestly wtf is that information. such a useless role

You should see mine.

On the plus side, I know exactly what sentence I am and it'll be obvious once I flip.

hmm hm. what about dunn, akarin?

I'm not willing to vote Dunn before either Eliminate-or-Lose OR a flip of either Mafia or 3rd party.

[Akarin]

Yeah, that's more a holdover from D1. And who am I to criticize that kind of tactic?

But going on record as not liking that vote.

[Akarin]

With one day until deadline, SKYEscrapers and DoubtingThomas should both roleclaim here.

Agreed.

I'm torn between the two at this point.

[Akarin]

So to explain my vote, I was looking at possible teams and I was thinking that DT was maybe the most likely candidate for scum!SKYE, but ALSO a reasonable partner candidate for scum!Mastina if it weren't Mastina-TGP.

Mastina's response to this was just

so

much better than SKYE's though.

Ari ignored it entirely, and Empress Tris first decided to push on a different wagon and it feels like they don't really believe in their Mastina vote either.

I'm much happier voting SKYE than I was earlier today.

[Akarin]

And yeah, I do like the recent TGP posts.

[Akarin]

Seriously though, if I die and SKYE flips scum, take SKYE-DT seriously, I think that's more likely than SKYE-Dunn (although I admit that's a reasonable pair as well.)

[Akarin]

I would accept being leashed tn for our shot but that tells scum where not to kill and who shouldn't take the shot so I'd rather be left ungated if that's alright.

If we don't eliminate you and we leash you, it'd be better to tell you to flip a coin between 2 players or something.

[Akarin]

Why'd you feel the need to crumb Alien in the first place, Ari?

[Akarin]

You expected town to point it out?

[Akarin]

What sentence do you think your VT role is based on?

[Akarin]

I'm doing thanksgiving things but I'll be here off and on before deadline.

[Akarin]

@SKYE:

Coinflip between Mastina and Dunn

(provisional in case thread gets locked, lets talk this out)

I think you should aim for scum, and probably different targets depending on if DT flips town, but this is the best placeholder in case of thread lock.

[Akarin]

I mean, if DT is Town I feel like you're pretty likely Mafia.

TGP / Mastina 50-50 if DT Town?

[Akarin]

Mastina, if it makes you feel better I'd have been very reluctant to change my vote anyway even if you'd been online at the same time as me. (Should have said I'd be back before deadline, was just really exhausted when I went to bed last night.)

I don't really buy there being 2 VTs in the setup unless they're flavored VTs and DT didn't indicate any flavor.

[Akarin]

also i thought about something, maybe like, the roles we have got assigned before the alignements? that would make sense with nic's information

I think the setup would have had some attempt to balance it, the way I interpret Nic's role is that Schadd designed a couple setups and rolled dice to decide which one to use.

[Akarin]

the nine roles in this game each took inspiration from one of the following sentences which were provided to me by list moderator Isis:
Larger radars usually are used for longer range, while radars designed for detailed imaging of objects may be smaller.

NicCage

My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.

MathBlade

Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
Five lefts make a left.
It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
Drink lots of water every chance you get.
Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

My guesses.

Mine should be obvious with my flip.

[Akarin]

I think Schadd is using mechanics more that role flavor.

[Akarin]

more than*

[Akarin]

But actually I can kind of see the 1-shot thing making sense, esp. if there's no other 1-shot roles. Maybe Schadd was just thinking SF=Aliens and

was

doing that.

[Akarin]

Okay well I'm an N2 invéstigatoire

Innocent always means the investigative target is innocent, guilty means they could be guilty or innocent. Pretty sure that's the how-long-to-trust-a-red-traffic-light sentence.

I checked Dunn last night and he's

TOWN

[Akarin]

So possible teams are just
SKYE + mastina
SKYE + Gypyx
mastina + Gypyx

I'm leaning SKYE + Mastina pretty hard right now.

[Akarin]

I guess it is worth re-re-evaluating Gypyx, stakes are kinda high at this point.

Didn't like the feeling of coordination going into this though.

Really need to take time to just reread like the whole game with all the flips in mind.

[Akarin]

I had originally took Mastina to be crumbing Doctor back on D1. I was sure she'd be toast.

TGP seems like such a weird kill though. Like why would Mastina + SKYE team kill TGP and leave me alive, they'd have known I wasn't protected. Pretty sure I was more suspicious of both of them at times than TGP was.

[Akarin]

I really don't like Mastina's walls there. Just in a sort of visceral way, the amount of words and pushing on how SKYE and I must both know Mastina is innocent, the assumptions going into the hard CC theory without as much waffling as other stuff seems to get.

I don't know, I need to give this game some serious time but major eyebrow raise from those.

[Akarin]

And let's remember, now that Mastina is also bringing it up, possibly to play into Gypyx, Math's scumread on me was based on his thinking I was scumbuddies with NicCage because of how I defended

Nic

. Mastina was actually Math's top scumread if Nic flipped town I believe.

[Akarin]

My scum possible list: Nic, A, Mastina, Ari Hydra, Dunn

That’s the order of priority too imho

assuming Nic is scum.

If Nic is town then A gets temporary reprieve. The last two

(e.g.SKYE & Dunn)

admittedly are PoE as I like everyone else more.

[Akarin]

Also, why would I need to fake innocent Dunn today. SKYE has been townreading me most of the game. In a me-Dunn scum world, why wouldn't I just bus, kill Mastina, and get SKYE to vote Gypyx with me?

I don't like how Mastina leaves this option out. Those walls seem more self-serving bad reasoning than game solving.

[Akarin]

Why on Earth would I ever crumb?

I said the sentence it relates to should be obvious, and I think it's one of the easiest matches to a sentence of all the claims, but who the heck crumbs cop? Especially when I can't get a reliable guilty.

[Akarin]

Mastina's strategy of winning the argument through being exhausting is shockingly effective when directed at me.

[Akarin]

Okay, SKYE, Gypyx, if either of you have anything you want me to address in Mastina's walls, quote it and I'll talk about it. Otherwise I'm just gonna ignore them and work on solving from earlier game stuff.

[Akarin]

Ari, could you please chime in at some point too?

(I assume this has all been tris)

[Akarin]

What sentance do you think your role matches to? Because i'm not seeing it

Pretty sure that's the how-long-to-trust-a-red-traffic-light sentence.

It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.

And for reference:

On the plus side, I know exactly what sentence I am and it'll be obvious once I flip.

[Akarin]

@Gypyx

If you're town,

please

try to give the game some serious attention and thought. It's Dastardly Deed Or Lose time today, we all need to give this our best.

[Akarin]

Uh, Mastina is the one who claimed Doc.

And if you're town, let's actually talk about Mastina instead of just dropping that vote on gut with 9 days on the clock.

I'm trying to look at old schadd setups now.

[Akarin]

Like, Ari, what part of Mastina's giant wall of bullshit is persuasive to you and let's talk about it.

[Akarin]

I hate you Ari

[Akarin]

Posting this half-finished because damn it I put in the effort trying to figure out setups

Okay, so it's like impossible to find things in schadd's topic history, but here's the best I can do for former MBoS setups.
12/2018micro 840: mystery box of silver:
9p: Night 2 Invéstigatoire, BP N1&N2 Tracker/D3 IC, 5VT, 2 Goon
Scumteam got to choose which player got to be the Tracker, first Eliminated player got to choose Invéstigatoire.
Mafia knew the setup.
Mastina was scum in this one btw.

5/2019 welcome to micro 871, mystery box of silver number 4: god is ALIVE
9p: informed night 2 neapolitan, 6 VT, 1 Goon, Macho Informed Mafian
Neap knew "you happen to know that lost ghosts is macho (kills successfully targeting them cannot fail)."
Mafia knew "you happen to know that there is an informed night 2 neapolitan among the town; they know you are macho. you also know that no killing roles exist among the town."
Mastina/Tris was a town slot in this game.

6/2019 mystery box of silver 5: the clash of cash
18p:

8/2019micro 886: mbos6 william tatney:
9p: Town Doctor, Town Wet Rolecop, 5 VTs, 2 goons
Wet Rolecop = Rolecop, Goons/VTs both look Vanilla, action fails if target visited by anyone else.
Mastina town, Tris scum in this one.

[Akarin]

Schadd does not make it easy to figure out what the setups are in some older games

[Akarin]

I'd been suspecting you off and on all game Mastina, and those walls just oozed scum to me, I can't figure why Ari bought into them.

And especially can't figure why he

voted

.

[Akarin]

Sorry, I'll get over being salty in a minute.

And I want to apologize to Tris for constantly wanting to talk to Ari instead. I was townreading Tris and really liked your input all game but I wanted to see Ari's responses because the lurking was the main cause of my suspicion but I'd been looking at some Ari games and was wanting to see if I could differentiate lurker town Ari from lurker scum Ari and felt like that would be easier to figure that Tris' alignment.

[Akarin]

Mastina, I seriously don't think you were anywhere near as towny as you think you were.

[Akarin]

They really aren't that logical, you have some serious self-serving misreps in them and they were actually too exhausting for me to deal with in the middle of the day, and I didn't think anyone would read me trying to tear them apart anyway.

Besides, you'd just make a lot of noise and get SKYE/Gypyx (whichever was town) to skim over the argument.

Never thought the day would be over that fast without time to discuss what was actually in them that others were finding persuasive.

[Akarin]

I felt like I played such a good town game here and the way this ended just makes me feel like complete shit.

I'm gonna step away for a minute, but Mastina, curb your arrogance please.

And Ari, use your damn brain next time.

[Akarin]

Also Akarin i'm curious, why did you townread me when you've read my towngames?

I discarded that today, but I'd noticed in your previous scumgames that you were interacting with your scumbuddies in particular ways that you weren't doing here.

The other stuff I attributed to you getting less involved in the game due to the D2 slowdown.

[Akarin]

Mastina, I just saw you doing that in that other scum MBoS game too.

And I don't mean the total volume, that's just frustrating and anti-town. I mean the reasoning. I don't think your scum reasoning is as logical as you think it is.

[Akarin]

oh i'm sorry

WHY DID YOU VOTE

[Akarin]

The real red flag should have been that Doctor soft on D1 survived until endgame.

Which I was gonna say after I got done the post I was in the middle of writing.

[Akarin]

Gypyx: I don't know if I can explain it well, it was a lot more clear when I was looking at your scumgames side by side, but a sort of nitpicking their arguments in a way I wasn't seeing you do in the town games, that you did with scumbuddies.

[Akarin]

Mastina, as a reviewer/random commenter on games I think you are a very fun person to talk to, but your arrogance as a player is infuriating

[Akarin]

ARI DID NOT FUCKING THINK

[Akarin]

I'm not saying you didn't play a good game Mastina, I'm saying you are not some perfect player who can never be read and I don't agree that all your arguments make sense but I just don't have the energy to engage with this respectfully right now, or possibly the energy to engage with you about the walls at all.

I've started and deleted a bunch of posts that I don't want to say because I think they're motivated more by frustration and anger than actual thoughts.

But your arrogance is really infurating.

[Akarin]

And despite that, I love reading a lot of posts you make on the site, especially when you're a spectator in games. And I've read so many of the Normal Review threads. Like I don't want you to think I hate you as a person or anything.

But right now I keep wanting to say I do.

[Akarin]

Like I'm mad at Ari for the needless early vote, but it's you making me feel like shit, Mastina.