Micro 1000: Names on the List v1.01 [game over!]

[bugspray]

ONE THOUSAND

[bugspray]

dunnstral town slight sl moz

[bugspray]

VOTE: mozamis

[bugspray]

koba town

[bugspray]

You really came back 30 minutes later with that thought?

yeah now I'm gonna go to bed

[bugspray]

n_m can you join the mosamis wagon to disable your idiot!nuthammer

[bugspray]

good call! Why the "they" pronoun btw

Dkkoba, much like myself, is nonbinary.

[bugspray]

Moz is doing a good job of trying to look busy but those reads are hot garbage and [p]78[/p] is just feels like scum trying to look town by asking someone to contribute to advancing the gamestate in a way that they know the person won't. The follow up right after is probably damaga control after Moz realized that they said something which conflicted with a previous post slightly

[bugspray]

also bugspray WIM rn is at scum levels so idk how to feel about that.

tf uis wim?

[bugspray]

wants it more. short term for effort. u effort more as scum and its basically ur meta in terms of town vs scum and its what i go by here. if u wanna link me to a game where u try hard as town go ahead but i dont think u rly do.

i try hard every game but the ways i go about accomplishing my goals change depending on the game but sometimes i just dont get the motivationg

also look at some of my scum games where i basically make a few lazy posts every few days

[bugspray]

also consider that im fucking looking way more active just because the rules disallow hyperpost

[bugspray]

ok but link me a town game where u try a similar amount as this game cuz ..... i dont think it exists lol

it just seems v disingenuous, like even so my amount of try waxes and wanes a big amount. i think it ssuper likely you just devekioed this meta read when i rolled scum 3 times in a row

[bugspray]

grrr game is slow.
mosamis i care that you are prodging because when the game is slow scum loves that and they will make those kinds of empty posts

i really dont like how you fluffed on the michael scott post. makes me thingk you are scum with little creativityy

VOTE: mozamis why is this evil bun still alive?

[bugspray]

the fact that the mozamis wagon has been stagnant for so long means scum are happy with the gamestate and basically mech confirms mozamis
VOTE: unvote

VOTE: the bulge

pedit not reading since mozamis talks about yearning heart

[bugspray]

alright tea bitches let's fucking yeet the bulge

[bugspray]

dunns/bulge/bugspray

do you think both scum are in that list?

[bugspray]

oh my god i think the koba effort sr on me is bad faith
koba is actually scum this game
VOTE: dkkoba

[bugspray]

ok but link me a town game where u try a similar amount as this game cuz ..... i dont think it exists lol

its not a prod dodge if u give reads on slots

these low key feel like bad faith pro town moves. asking people for things that woudl be ncie if they did but you know they are not going to do

[bugspray]

alright so assuming i'm scum are you okay with me bussing first?

[bugspray]

me and koba is tvt
VOTE: unvote

adding UNVOTE: because the votecounter is stupid -D

[bugspray]

does anyone other than koba and moz have opinions on the bulge?

[bugspray]

Moz looking for an angle to to introduce two new players (ythan/me) to a pool of suspects is potentially scum motivated

We should do what we were doing before that point.

yeah but aren't you scumpartners?

[bugspray]

What happened to epicmafia?

there's a speezy thread that explains but basically one of the admins made it into a no rules hellzone and then when the owner of the website caught wind they just killed it

[bugspray]

one of tyhe ppl simping for mozam town is scum for towncred
i think today is a 1 on 1 off

[bugspray]

so we publish and then nobody dies today?

[bugspray]

wait is ther eno night kill?

[bugspray]

@mod if we publish does the daily post cap reset fore the next day pohase?

[bugspray]

we're gonn a use all our fucking posts before publishing or else im gonna dayvig someone randomly using the dice tag

[bugspray]

FUCKING SHIT why do i feel so busy

[bugspray]

Outside would be better I believe. We have 1 in 3 to find as opposed to 2 in 5.

Meaning todays eliminations are myself, Michael and bugspray.

I do have some dungeoneering shenangians that are a priority currently, so analysis will come later.

i'm on the list

[bugspray]

im pretty sure if i draw a diagram of every vote everyone has made and then divide it based on the list some useful info can be found but honestly i would be very happy with a bulge elim today. wagons that get to the cusp of yeet which then get redirectled to a green flip wagon right after are often scum

[bugspray]

VOTE: the bulge

[bugspray]

why am i scum?

because that's what random.org decided
and your attempts at discrediting me by saying my arguments are weak without explaining why don't make you look any better.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _me_fry_me

[bugspray]

mine

dammit

[bugspray]

The Moz wagon stalled and if a wagon stalls it's indicative that scum is either unable to or unwilling to make a counterwahln and I believe they were unwilling to make a counterwahln because they know Moz was town

[bugspray]

like what are the grounds for even saying that? do you mean every time a wagon stalls that's what's happening, or just in this game's context? are you saying that every counterwagon is led by scum?

This is a flagrant misrep. Every coubterwagon being led by scum is absolutely different from what I said.
Geriatric or not if the scum were unhappy with the gamestate they will do their best to change it.

[bugspray]

Every single one of the bulge's arguments are LHF that stand up to little scrutiny. 419 is calling out a lurker with more words.
Read a bulge post and ask if it looks like it genuinely is looking for scum

[bugspray]

I am awaiting consensus on where we should vote, N_M using Michaels slip, or Rathe based on my belief that voting outside of the list is the better option due to overall increased odds based on the smaller pool.

Assuming you have no information of any player's alignment shooting inside the published list randomly gives a 2/5 or 40% probability of hitting scum. If you know the alignment of one player in the group to be town then you instead have a 2/4 or 50% probability of hitting scum.

Assuming you have no information of any player's alignment shooting outside the published list randomly gives a 1/3 or 33% probability of hitting scum. If you know the alignment of one player in the group to be town then you instead have a 1/2 or 50% probability of hitting scum.

Fortunately, every town player knows they are town so we can calculate the probability of eliminating scum both inside and outside the group (the group/pool/etc. meaning the list we published yesterday).
Known facts:
* The group contains three town and two scum
* The outsiders contains two town and one scum.
* Every town player knows they are town

Assumptions I am making (these will all skew the derived statistics to appear scum favouring and are unlikely to be all true)
* Scum will never vote to eliminate their scumbuddies
* No town have any information about players' alignment other than their own

From this we can calculate the expected value of a random player dayvigging both in and out of the group by taking the average of all the probabilities.

Shooting in the group:
* scum1 in group: 0%
* scum2 in group: 0%
* town1 in group : 50%
* town2 in group : 50%
* town3 in group : 50%
* scum1 out group:0%
* town1 out group: 40%
* town2 out group: 40%
average = 28.75% (and this is very generous to scum)

Shooting outside the group
* scum1 in group: 0%
* scum2 in group: 0%
* town1 in group : 33%
* town2 in group : 33%
* town3 in group : 33%
* scum1 out group:0%
* town1 out group: 50%
* town2 out group: 50%
average ~= 24.875%

Shooting randomly with no respect to the group (3/7 because each town knows not to self elim):
* scum1 in group: 0%
* scum2 in group: 0%
* town1 in group : 42.86%
* town2 in group : 42.86%
* town3 in group : 42.86%
* scum1 out group:0%
* town1 out group: 42.86%
* town2 out group: 42.86%
average ~=26.79%

Shooting outside the published list gives us a worse probability to hit scum than shooting inside the list.

[bugspray]

While I understand the maths for shooting on the list, I feel voting for rathe would be quite a powerful move at this time, and would confirm Not_mafia's alignment as anti-town.

How would elimiating rathe today confirm NM's alignment?
Why did you specifically say anti-town rather than scum?

What woudl we learn abot n_m's alignment if rathe flips green?
What woudl we learn abot n_m's alignment if rathe flips red?

[bugspray]

Feels like mhtp's responses to my questions were done as a chore to make the problem go away

[bugspray]

VOTE: mad hater tea party

I dayvig mad hatter tea party

going to wait until my next prod and then remind people that we should eliminate this slot bye

pedir yeah like look at how mhtp has basically just been saying my arguments suck without explaining why and never providing direct answers
it's not behavior i'd expect from town ever

[bugspray]

VOTE: n_m
Eliminating in the list is just better

[bugspray]

That is e1

[bugspray]

VOTE: none wait a minute

[bugspray]

True the set of not in the list is 3 and if we flip a green from it that is a guaranteed red flip and conftown

[bugspray]

VOTE: hat

[bugspray]

My numbers were not as useful as I thought, hmm

[bugspray]

SET THEORY SIMULATOR

[bugspray]

You are the second person to state something to this effect.

Interesting interesting

mhtp who was the other and where did they do it

[bugspray]

scum is stalling hammer as much as possible

[bugspray]

wehats

[bugspray]

Why not publish today

[bugspray]

Why not publish today

I don't think we get any new information if we do.

can you provide some kind of mathematical proof as to how scum could have created a list that provides no new information to town?
i find such a prospect dubious

[bugspray]

Why not publish today

I don't think we get any new information if we do.

can you provide some kind of mathematical proof as to how scum could have created a list that provides no new information to town?
i find such a prospect dubious

?? they can publish the exact same list as before, only with not_mafia's name removed.

wait, that's legal?
seems kinda fucked that scum can just give us a subset of an existing list

[bugspray]

@mod can scum just give us a subset (the maths term) of a previous published list?

[bugspray]

We miseliminated tho. I think that's a feature not a bug.

would there be any difference if we hit scum? they could just give the list minus the scum

[bugspray]

Sure maybe it's a flaw? Were we ever supposed to publish twice or was it more about when we publish? Good subject to consider in the post game.

the game mechanics explicitly allow multiple publishings and have fules for that. if we were never supposed to then the inclusing of those rules is a design mistake and datisi wouldn't allow such a mistake to creep into the next iteration of this game
i'm very suspicious of how much you seemingly aren't dissapointed/upset by this bullshit and i feeel like the people who wanted to nut button publish the first list were scum who knew how not very useful it is
holy fuck this is basically just nightless mountainous (not fun) with added set theory (not fun, in the context of mafia)

[bugspray]

will there ever be a situation where scum is unable to publish a list that is not a subset of an already published list? it's possible they neglected this fact and now that we're talking about it so publicly there is no reason not to unless im forgetting that there's night kills

[bugspray]

this very setup is antithetical to the spirit of mafia

[bugspray]

dammit did someone throw while i was solving

[bugspray]

i was so ready to vote ythan

[bugspray]

dammit my gut was right

[bugspray]

@mod next time dont give scum daytalk in yeetlo