Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Pink Panthers
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Smh, imagine claiming someone faked a post then not doing some deep analysis into whether the word choice makes sense from the person it's from/allegedly from
Reasons why
Gamma, have you ever used the word 'sus'? It's too short to search since it's 3 letters, but I went through about 10 of your recent games and i can't see you ever using 'sus' and i even saw one example of you resonding to a post that used the word sus by talking about things being suspicious/suspect.
(although i looked at 3 games and your partner didn't use the phrase either which i would have taken as evidence of it being a fake post/failing to copy your posting style.
Dead ends
Both use 'Kinda' a decent amount and the word 'Kinda' is slightly more likely to come from Gamma than Faria (not accounting for post frequency)
Against
Gamma was online
Feels reaching at the gut level
Mentioning a sus in the post would slightly reduce the odds because i feel like the average 'faking a post' wouldn't want to assign opinions in it? depends how worried she would be in that world
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Pink Panthers Goon
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did any specific post prompt you to claim it?In post 93, Rockhopper wrote:
I wasn't aware of the mechanics/strategy.In post 89, Pink Panthers wrote: @rockhop - why didn't you claim your suit earlier on? It's kind of weird I'm the first one asking this
-hop
Better safe than sorry.-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Uncontested claims
T3 – Bride
Enchant - Mystic
Brided
Pink Panthers – Bride verified VT
Claims
VFP- VT
ArcAngel9 – VT
Gamma – VT
Not Mafia – VT
Actiondan – VT
Suit claims
Rockhopper – VT with seamstress suit
T3 and Enchant are confirmed town because of no counterclaims and 1 mystic minimum.
In the 1 mystic/1 Bride setup the scum have 2 actresses
Actresses can only modify their own suit, they can't change someone else's
The only role that could give Rockhopper the seamstress suit can't be in the game based on claims
Therefore, Rockhopper can't have been changed suits by the mafia and is proven to be lying about having their suit changed and is hence confirmed scum
just verifying this all
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Pink Panthers Goon
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So one confirmed scum in Rockhopper. They shoot one of the prs leaves 7 alive and we have 5 chances to hit the scum in the six non confirmed players (VFP/Arc/Gamma/NM/ActionDan/This hydra), so a good ol' 83% win rate. We only lose if we hit every vanilla townie in that pool and not the scum.
I'd lean it being Arc>VFP>otherwise unordered
not quite instant win, but dang close
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Pink Panthers Goon
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In post 195, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Are you open wolfing? We’re confitown.In post 190, Rockhopper wrote:
VOTE: PanthersIn post 185, Pink Panthers wrote:I don't think the Gamma hydra would make this slip
ActionDan seems to have noticed the same stuff i did here so is less likely scum since scum doing this strat then getting the other to point it out for towncred is super -ev
taking them out of the subsequent pool leaves (NM/VFP/Arc)
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It's quite strange that you conveniently leave out possible situations that involve town!me to push your confscum!rock narrative.
Assume the team is {actress, seamstress} for instance. Why don't you think a mystic could lie about their role to essentially become an activated innocent child or something of that sort? Dan seemed to have suggested the idea in his posts, but you just straight up discard it??
Even if it's just {actress, actress}, why would lying about having a seamstress suit necessarily point to me being scum?
It isn't harmful to town in any way and can help increase the likelihood of scum slipping up the way I see it (which I think is the case here).
Your case doesn't look like something that comes out of a townie mindset, since I'd expect town!you to actually analyze how sensible a lie would be from either alignment before jumping to such an extreme conclusion.-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Both us and T3.
I’ve seen bad open wolf plays but Rockhopper’s really takes the cake. lmfaooo-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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In post 267, ArcAngel9 wrote:
What why pink panthers? His role is literally confirmed by the mod.In post 266, Rockhopper wrote:Oh, I thought you scumslipped, nevermind.
I lied about having a seamstress suit, Arc.
VOTE: Pink PanthersIn post 258, ArcAngel9 wrote:
Not necessarily!!In post 257, VFP wrote:There can only be 1 mystic, right?
Mafia Actress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic, Vanilla Townie x5
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride,Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4
Mafia Seamstress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x3, Vanilla Townie x3
If NM is telling truth, we should lynch Enchant. His oracle claim is bird shit then.
@VFP - what changed for you to go from NM town > voting NM there? There was no setup related reasons for him to be lying. Any of (town NM+town Arc, town NM+scum Arc, scum NM+town Arc, scum NM + scum Arc) are all possible.In post 251, VFP wrote:NM is probably town.
Arc - did you think the bride is 100% at this point? that feels like a weird overlooking at this stage
Arc - why did you bold the 2 mystics setup & assume NM was lying when there were 3 mystic claims and it could have been the 3 mystic setup? bolding the 2 specifically is part of this question
Faria quoting private chat with timestamps feels like the kind of thing DK might modkill for.-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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In post 198, Pink Panthers wrote:Hey dude, why don’t you also vote our mason buddy T3 while you’re at it? No one believes you fake townslipped here. lololol
ironically, Nancy was genuinely townslipping while talking about someone fake townslippingIn post 195, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Are you open wolfing? We’re confitown.In post 190, Rockhopper wrote:
VOTE: PanthersIn post 185, Pink Panthers wrote:I don't think the Gamma hydra would make this slip
ActionDan seems to have noticed the same stuff i did here so is less likely scum since scum doing this strat then getting the other to point it out for towncred is super -ev
taking them out of the subsequent pool leaves (NM/VFP/Arc)
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It's quite strange that you conveniently leave out possible situations that involve town!me to push your confscum!rock narrative.
Assume the team is {actress, seamstress} for instance. Why don't you think a mystic could lie about their role to essentially become an activated innocent child or something of that sort? Dan seemed to have suggested the idea in his posts, but you just straight up discard it??
Even if it's just {actress, actress}, why would lying about having a seamstress suit necessarily point to me being scum?
It isn't harmful to town in any way and can help increase the likelihood of scum slipping up the way I see it (which I think is the case here).
Your case doesn't look like something that comes out of a townie mindset, since I'd expect town!you to actually analyze how sensible a lie would be from either alignment before jumping to such an extreme conclusion.
i got several messages on the discord chat about how Rock was voting confirmed town and hard openwolfing and assumed she meant Rock was voting T3 until i checked the thread
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Pink Panthers Goon
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You lied in a massclaim and i still see no reason why you did. Outside of possibly 'not getting checked by bride' which you say below wasn't your main goal, i fail to see the motivation.In post 190, Rockhopper wrote:
VOTE: PanthersIn post 185, Pink Panthers wrote:I don't think the Gamma hydra would make this slip
ActionDan seems to have noticed the same stuff i did here so is less likely scum since scum doing this strat then getting the other to point it out for towncred is super -ev
taking them out of the subsequent pool leaves (NM/VFP/Arc)
-Hop
It's quite strange that you conveniently leave out possible situations that involve town!me to push your confscum!rock narrative.
Assume the team is {actress, seamstress} for instance. Why don't you think a mystic could lie about their role to essentially become an activated innocent child or something of that sort? Dan seemed to have suggested the idea in his posts, but you just straight up discard it??
Even if it's just {actress, actress}, why would lying about having a seamstress suit necessarily point to me being scum?
It isn't harmful to town in any way and can help increase the likelihood of scum slipping up the way I see it (which I think is the case here).
Your case doesn't look like something that comes out of a townie mindset, since I'd expect town!you to actually analyze how sensible a lie would be from either alignment before jumping to such an extreme conclusion.
Scum!you here would have made a mistake and town!you would have done it genuinely and presumably with a good reason which i haven't seen
how would you expect scum to slip up as a result of it given they would know you didn't have a suit
the harmful element comes if you are scum as you can be doing it to attempt to avoid being checked or if you're town from this scenario where you're doing things scum have an incentive to do which makes you look very much like scum
i ignored situations where town lied as town should not have lied. it's very strange that you find this unreasonable, even though you disagree with the conclusion
This is not in fact obvious as there was no incentive for you to do it in the first place. Who would you be trying to fool here, because scum know whether they gave you a suit or not. you're literally only lying to town thereIn post 192, Rockhopper wrote:
ERgo arguments that I was just fakeclaiming to avoid getting proposed are unfounded.In post 191, Rockhopper wrote:I did not expect this to happen this soon.
I obviously would have revealed that I didn't in fact have any suit after everyone claimed.
These two posts overall read as very defensive (given the vote which happens again later) which does feel like caught scum more than dumb!town
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In post 303, Rockhopper wrote:Spoiler:
Scum I expect would slip up (or react differently) *because* they know I'm lying. It may not be a sure shot strat but it at least could have given us something to work with.
Why would scum!me (in an actress/actress scenario) fake a seamstress suit and ask for a massclaim for the purpose of avoiding a bride shot knowing that the existence of only 1 oracle would point to my suit being a lie?
And if I know for a fact that there IS another oracle who fakeclaimed vt (in an actress/seamstress scenario where the actress is given a disguise), what incentive would I have to retract my claim at all?
How would pushing NM (if the claim was true) out Arc?In post 302, VFP wrote:
Because Arc lying there and pushing NM outs them as scum if NM is telling the truth.In post 297, Pink Panthers wrote:@VFP - what changed for you to go from NM town > voting NM there? There was no setup related reasons for him to be lying. Any of (town NM+town Arc, town NM+scum Arc, scum NM+town Arc, scum NM + scum Arc) are all possible.
Makes no sense as scum, therefore NM was lying.
It's plausible NM is still scum right?
Obviously in the scum!arc world Arc does know at that point that NM was lying (or Enchant was, or another VT claim was, but NM lying is obviously most likely of the three for them there) so isn't going to be concerned NM targeted them-
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my model of scumyou involved you making a mistake that you didn't realize was a mistakeIn post 303, Rockhopper wrote:Spoiler:
Scum I expect would slip up (or react differently) *because* they know I'm lying. It may not be a sure shot strat but it at least could have given us something to work with.
Why would scum!me (in an actress/actress scenario) fake a seamstress suit and ask for a massclaim for the purpose of avoiding a bride shot knowing that the existence of only 1 oracle would point to my suit being a lie?
And if I know for a fact that there IS another oracle who fakeclaimed vt (in an actress/seamstress scenario where the actress is given a disguise), what incentive would I have to retract my claim at all?
i'm factoring in your comments about not being sure about setup stuff earlier
i do agree that in the seamstess/actress/2 oracles world you are more likely town because it would be weird to retract that if you were expecting another town to come out as oracle and at that point it's easier to believe it coming from town thinking it was a good idea initially. i would take Arc flipping town as you being more likely town, and Arc flipping scum as you being more likely scum. do you think we're in the actress/seamstress world? what do you think happened to the 'missing' n0 action?
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Not_mafia is notable notorious, but i don't seem scum!NM making an intentionally suboptimal action choice here with no clear upside
The bride is confirmed town. If it's 1 scum remaining then bride is in lylo and scum's win involves lethaling 6 town from here (everyone except themselves would need to be voted out for them to win if scum!NM chose not to kill). i don't see any upside, let alone one that compares to the impact of that
NM was town, VT specifically. (although i didn't realize that deathflips involved suits so that's a useful knowledge update)
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Pink Panthers Goon
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In post 320, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:Hi, don’t prod us again. Sorry I’m overgamed af.
I haven’t been reading the game. Why did we elim NM?-
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Us and T3 are confitown or aren’t you reading?In post 316, Rockhopper wrote:
Town- Gamma Faria, VFP based on interactionsIn post 315, Pink Panthers wrote:in the scenario of Arc!scum who would you read as more likely town/scum?
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Scum- NM based on mechanics-
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how was it a CC? what do you meanIn post 319, VFP wrote:
I see it as a CC.In post 305, Pink Panthers wrote:How would pushing NM (if the claim was true) out Arc?
Obviously in the scum!arc world Arc does know at that point that NM was lying (or Enchant was, or another VT claim was, but NM lying is obviously most likely of the three for them there) so isn't going to be concerned NM targeted them
I actually have no idea what's happening.
In post 322, Pink Panthers wrote:In post 316, Rockhopper wrote:
Town- Gamma Faria, VFP based on interactionsIn post 315, Pink Panthers wrote:in the scenario of Arc!scum who would you read as more likely town/scum?
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Scum- NM based on mechanics
Us and T3 are confitown or aren’t you reading?
you mean conftown by play right? obviously we had that talk on Sunday about Rock
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Arc didn't counterclaim NM, they said they thought one oracle might not be oracle.In post 324, VFP wrote:
Arc CC NM.In post 323, Pink Panthers wrote:how was it a CC? what do you mean
And Arc was right.
I don't get how you're reading this as though one of them had to be oracle and exactly one and hence it's a counterclaim. can you explain this
bearing in mind that scum!arc wouldknowthat NM was fakeclaiming because scum Arc would know there's 1 oracle (assuming Enchant is only oracle), so isn't being right there a scumtell when scum would know it's fake but town don't have as good of a reason to see it as fake?
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In post 328, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Because Koba posted our respective role pms and yes, that too, obviously.In post 323, Pink Panthers wrote:
how was it a CC? what do you meanIn post 319, VFP wrote:
I see it as a CC.In post 305, Pink Panthers wrote:How would pushing NM (if the claim was true) out Arc?
Obviously in the scum!arc world Arc does know at that point that NM was lying (or Enchant was, or another VT claim was, but NM lying is obviously most likely of the three for them there) so isn't going to be concerned NM targeted them
I actually have no idea what's happening.
In post 322, Pink Panthers wrote:In post 316, Rockhopper wrote:
Town- Gamma Faria, VFP based on interactionsIn post 315, Pink Panthers wrote:in the scenario of Arc!scum who would you read as more likely town/scum?
-Hop
Scum- NM based on mechanics
Us and T3 are confitown or aren’t you reading?
you mean conftown by play right? obviously we had that talk on Sunday about Rock
-HopIn post 329, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
Why did NM fakeclaim then? Wtf was he thinking?In post 286, DkKoba wrote:Not Mafia has been eliminated, they appear to have been:
Night 1 begins now and will end in (expired on 2021-07-06 13:27:15). Please submit all relevant night actions if applicable. I may accelerate the night if all players submit "fast night".
Pink Panthers will be required to check in by the end of the night, whether or not they have night actions or else they will be replaced as they were due for a prod before night started.-
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In post 285, DkKoba wrote:
I think you’re town and what do you make of it? NM shouldn’t have done that and because he lied, it makes it hard to tell who’s scum if onwagon.In post 327, VFP wrote:As I said, I have no idea what's happening. It doesn't help that there's been multiple lies on roles.
I took Arcs claim that either Arc or NM had to be fake.
If NM flips Oracle then Arc is the next day lim and isn't something scum wants, let alone for someone who can plausibly be lim in general.
I'm not sure how Arc is ever that confident with NM lying unless they are telling the truth, even as scum it doesn't seem right.-
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Idk about obvtown but yeah he does seem pretty townie.In post 331, T3 wrote:Am I the only one not seeing ActionDan obvtown?-
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@Nancy - i mean the bit where i said 'We aren't mod confirmed town, the scum roles mess with that action' then 'you're townslipping again' then 'Scum can use their ability to look like another player for that flip' then longer quotes. we aren't confirmed and i feel like you may have misinterpreted it
so why did you think exactly one had to be fake? there's no way to tell if NM is oracle/townie for town, so do you still think Arc has to be lying? i'm so confused by your perspectiveIn post 327, VFP wrote:As I said, I have no idea what's happening. It doesn't help that there's been multiple lies on roles.
I took Arcs claim that either Arc or NM had to be fake.
If NM flips Oracle then Arc is the next day lim and isn't something scum wants, let alone for someone who can plausibly be lim in general.
I'm not sure how Arc is ever that confident with NM lying unless they are telling the truth, even as scum it doesn't seem right.
why were you willing to vote based on Arc's claim that you thought one had to be lying? it doesn't feel like you considered it much as i can't see consideration of that point in the thread
how would town Arctown Arc has no way of knowing it, butknowNM was lying?scum know how many oracles there are,and if there's one could easily work out which of Enchant/NM is more likely
how do you feel about Arc now and why?
he was in a special middle part of my reads list, i also wouldn't say obvtownIn post 331, T3 wrote:Am I the only one not seeing ActionDan obvtown?
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Am I misunderstanding something? Didn’t he flip vt?In post 338, VFP wrote:
Why do scum need to be on the wagon?In post 332, Pink Panthers wrote:I think you’re town and what do you make of it? NM shouldn’t have done that and because he lied, it makes it hard to tell who’s scum if onwagon.
If NM is scum then I don't see any bussing there since T3 is confirmed and I know I'm town.
If NM is town, I still don't see why scum put themselves there.
For me, the wagon is town (excluding NM from plausibility).
If NM is scum, then Rock is my best bet as scum. First going for Arc, then changing to you as if worried that an Arc lim shows NM as scum anyway.-
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In post 286, DkKoba wrote:Not Mafia has been eliminated, they appear to have been:
Night 1 begins now and will end in (expired on 2021-07-06 13:27:15). Please submit all relevant night actions if applicable. I may accelerate the night if all players submit "fast night".
Pink Panthers will be required to check in by the end of the night, whether or not they have night actions or else they will be replaced as they were due for a prod before night started.-
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In post 2, DkKoba wrote:Setup:
Mafia do not possess a factional kill.
Both members of the mafia have a vengeful ability they may use upon being eliminated to kill 1 town.
The setup split is 2/7
Mafia have Daytalk
A mechanic involving an item called a suit, which works in the following way: When you have a suit, in any situation that involves the moderator posting your role PM in thread, it will instead show the suit's role. Once you have a suit, you cannot override it with a different suit, unless otherwise specified in a role's description.
The setup is a semi-open, with the following setups being possible:
Mafia Actress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic, Vanilla Townie x5
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4
Mafia Seamstress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x3, Vanilla Townie x3
Spoiler: Sample Town Role PMs:
Spoiler: Sample Mafia Role PMs-
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How does he flip vt then?In post 338, VFP wrote:
Why do scum need to be on the wagon?In post 332, Pink Panthers wrote:I think you’re town and what do you make of it? NM shouldn’t have done that and because he lied, it makes it hard to tell who’s scum if onwagon.
If NM is scum then I don't see any bussing there since T3 is confirmed and I know I'm town.
If NM is town, I still don't see why scum put themselves there.
For me, the wagon is town (excluding NM from plausibility).
If NM is scum, then Rock is my best bet as scum. First going for Arc, then changing to you as if worried that an Arc lim shows NM as scum anyway.
@mod, can scum actually influence flips?-
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@Nancy - scum will flip as town, but we'll know they're scum based on there being a kill in any reasonable scenario
A mechanic involving an item called a suit, which works in the following way:When you have a suit, in any situation that involves the moderator posting your role PM in thread, it will instead show the suit's role.
yep, there's obvious scum incentive for itIn post 339, Enchant wrote:I believe Seamstress can't selftarget.
Arc very likely are Actress here.
Fakeclaiming before proposal and then "claiming true role" after with this excuse is what i expect from mafia who unlucky with visits and got simple VT suit which would give them away if proposal was made to them.
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why are you still considering NM as possible scum?In post 345, Rockhopper wrote:
Conftowns excluded.In post 318, Enchant wrote:
Why i am not Town in this situation?In post 316, Rockhopper wrote:
Town- Gamma Faria, VFP based on interactionsIn post 315, Pink Panthers wrote:in the scenario of Arc!scum who would you read as more likely town/scum?
-Hop
Scum- NM based on mechanics
Why NM mafia based on mechanics?
The theory I had in mind was that Arc fakeclaimed oracle and bussed NM as an attempt to convince town the setup was indeed seamstress/seamstress who disguised each other since it would have looked really bad for NM otherwise.
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So NM could still be scum then?In post 345, Rockhopper wrote:
Conftowns excluded.In post 318, Enchant wrote:
Why i am not Town in this situation?In post 316, Rockhopper wrote:
Town- Gamma Faria, VFP based on interactionsIn post 315, Pink Panthers wrote:in the scenario of Arc!scum who would you read as more likely town/scum?
-Hop
Scum- NM based on mechanics
Why NM mafia based on mechanics?
The theory I had in mind was that Arc fakeclaimed oracle and bussed NM as an attempt to convince town the setup was indeed seamstress/seamstress who disguised each other since it would have looked really bad for NM otherwise.-
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I’m confused, are flips real or not?In post 347, Pink Panthers wrote:
why are you still considering NM as possible scum?In post 345, Rockhopper wrote:
Conftowns excluded.In post 318, Enchant wrote:
Why i am not Town in this situation?In post 316, Rockhopper wrote:
Town- Gamma Faria, VFP based on interactionsIn post 315, Pink Panthers wrote:in the scenario of Arc!scum who would you read as more likely town/scum?
-Hop
Scum- NM based on mechanics
Why NM mafia based on mechanics?
The theory I had in mind was that Arc fakeclaimed oracle and bussed NM as an attempt to convince town the setup was indeed seamstress/seamstress who disguised each other since it would have looked really bad for NM otherwise.
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Flips of town players will be real UNLESS they were targeted by a night action that would change their flip to fake. they would be informed of this and nobody has claimed this
The scum actress role will always flip as town but will be accompanied by scum killing someone as scum only get vengeful shots and not nightkills
The scum princess role we're checking with DK since me/Enchant aren't sure- but in either case it would be accompanied by a vengeful shot
Mafia could chose not to use their vengeful shot, but given we have an otherwise unremovable conf.town, you would always shoot them
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Pink Panthers Goon
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to clarify we're on the same page- she did claim, but her claimed role can easily exist with the role that he claimedIn post 350, Pink Panthers wrote:VOTE: ArcAngel9
She called NM a liar for claim but made no CC.
Hoppy and I are in agreement about this.
Her being the best lim.
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Pink Panthers Goon
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OIC, well it would make sense since the only one who’s actually scumpinging me right now is AA9, so that would be awesome if we won this on D2.In post 351, VFP wrote:
So if NM is scum and for example targeted you (Pink) then they flip town, right?In post 2, DkKoba wrote:Every night you may target a player. You will receive a suit which is a copy of that player's role, of which you will be informed of.
The suit will cause you to reveal as whatever the suit shows if you either have your role revealed or die. A player may not receive a 2nd suit once they already have one, however the Actress has an exception that allows them to override their current suit.-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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I’m so glad we’re hydraing. <3In post 352, Pink Panthers wrote:Flips of town players will be real UNLESS they were targeted by a night action that would change their flip to fake. they would be informed of this and nobody has claimed this
The scum actress role will always flip as town but will be accompanied by scum killing someone as scum only get vengeful shots and not nightkills
The scum princess role we're checking with DK since me/Enchant aren't sure- but in either case it would be accompanied by a vengeful shot
Mafia could chose not to use their vengeful shot, but given we have an otherwise unremovable conf.town, you would always shoot them
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Pink Panthers Goon
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In post 258, ArcAngel9 wrote:
Not necessarily!!In post 257, VFP wrote:There can only be 1 mystic, right?
Mafia Actress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic, Vanilla Townie x5
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride,Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4
Mafia Seamstress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x3, Vanilla Townie x3
If NM is telling truth, we should lynch Enchant. His oracle claim is bird shit then.In post 263, ArcAngel9 wrote:or there is Town Mystic X3 - i am not sure if there are three mystics then
spoilers, i have been reading the game. you're acting like you know there was exactly 2 mystics in the game since that has to be true for it to be counterclaiming NM. despite knowing there could be three. why do you think you counterclaimed there and why were you confident there couldn't be 3 mystics?In post 253, ArcAngel9 wrote:
Wrong answer.In post 252, Not_Mafia wrote:
MysticIn post 250, ArcAngel9 wrote:
Then tell us what is your role?In post 249, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm not lying
Hard Claim. I lied before.
I am Town Mystic. I targeted ActionDan on night 0
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Pink Panthers Goon
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Eh, if Arc thinks she's the solo oracle then i think it's very reasonable to pick the other oracle
For someone who thinks there's one oracle (which is Arc's stated perspective if town) then they think the setup is actress/actress who picked suits n0. Assuming they picked different players, there's only around a (1-(6/7*5/6)) 29% chance that either of them managed to get their hands on an oracle suit
Although you claiming Oracle should move it more towards a world where scum!you would have an oracle suit, in that world your partner would also have a VT suit, so i think it's the most sensible action
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Pink Panthers Goon
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like in actress/actress worlds the oracle only does something if someone is claiming something and doesn't have that suit. presumably anyone claiming VT has either a VT suit, possibly but unlikely a mystic suit, or a bride suit and is sweating. So someone flipping VT from mystic tells us very little because scum would presumably play their claims around what they get.
anyone claiming mystic could have an oracle mystic (although bearing in mind it's a below 30% chance scum have this option), a VT suit, or a bride suite. the second two are scum indicative/confirmative to see on a flip from another mystic (who is confirmed oracle by the fact a flip is happening on their death) so it does give us information towards whether the other one is more/less likely to be true.
(in the world scum had two actresses who got one VT/one mystic then mystic picks don't really matter anyway as anyone will flip as their claimed role).
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Pink Panthers Goon
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So who would you lim instead then? Only thing is it’s weird if NM is actually a bus because bussing in this kind of setup is a tough win, so that’s my issue with both scum, although I suppose it’s possible?In post 375, Enchant wrote:Hm. I have idea.
Let Arc live for a night. In case we are wrong, and she is town, she will reveal one person as not Seamstress (revealing me is waste). If she is mafia, she dying anyway, so...-
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Pink Panthers Goon
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