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Post #66 (isolation #2) » Sat Nov 05, 2022 2:36 pm
Postby Greeting »
In post 1, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
• A majority coalition is agreed upon when at least five players have the same group of five people proposed as a coalition. At this point, the coalition is locked in and cannot be changed.
So all we need is a block of 5 people we are absolutely sure are town and we win.
Though we need to watch our votes in this phase too, because if we just throw them around there is a slim chance of forming a coalition by accident.
@mod:
are heal votes counted separately or cumulatively?
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Post #120 (isolation #4) » Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:03 pm
Postby Greeting »
In post 86, Una wrote:The second sentence of 56 probably is a townie. Mafia like to be right. He would still want to talk about it as mafia but to argue
It is a small thing
I've said this type of stuff as scum in games before, looking approachable and ready to cooperate is often what gets you easy towncred.
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Post #122 (isolation #5) » Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:08 pm
Postby Greeting »
In post 99, Lucian wrote:I'm not planning on locking Dannflor in as town forerver for that single post. However, I do think it shows an amount of seriousness and willingness to solve, which I'm okay giving an early townread for.
In post 86, Una wrote:The second sentence of 56 probably is a townie. Mafia like to be right. He would still want to talk about it as mafia but to argue
It is a small thing
I've said this type of stuff as scum in games before, looking approachable and ready to cooperate is often what gets you easy towncred.
HURT: Lucian
Do you think being approachable is actually
scummy
? Why did you put me into the coalition for in the first place?
At first glance the ISO seemed towny enough to just throw you in, but then, when
Una
spoke of that post, I read back and reevaluated. That post sounds really LAMIST-y.
In post 99, Lucian wrote:I'm not planning on locking Dannflor in as town forerver for that single post. However, I do think it shows an amount of seriousness and willingness to solve, which I'm okay giving an early townread for.
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Post #204 (isolation #7) » Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:57 pm
Postby Greeting »
In post 126, Una wrote:If you are hurting Lucian because post 56 is scummy rather than townie, why did you not say so before I made my post saying it is townie? And now you are hurting him.
It seems like disruption for disruption's sake rather than conviction
In post 134, Menalque wrote:but I was being serious about not wanting either of dann or ydra in unless they obvtown
There are 15,120 possible coalitions but only 2,520 can win the game, this is a 17% chance to immediately win.
You are excluding 2 players from possible coalitions. That means you are only considering 2,520 coalitions, 17% of the ones that are allowed. (2,520 has appeared again because the number of Ydrasse and Dannflor is the same number of people as the Mafia). The probability of winning is the same but 5/6ths of the winning coalitions, on average, aren't in play so it will be much harder to subjectively sniff and smell a winning coalition.
Just because mafia can do certain things to get townread doesn't mean it's likely for them to do it. Scum are more likely to pick their battles specifically to increase their chances of winning.
I find it unlikely that a scum would decide to focus their energy on finding discrepancy between tone and actions in a slot that contributed longer thoughts to a game when it's much easier to attack slots that contributed less.
Menalque
, judged by tone, looks like an obv!town slot on first glance, but you've actually shown that you read deeper into his posts. So I think that makes you likely town and a good candidate for the coalition.
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Post #469 (isolation #13) » Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:26 pm
Postby Greeting »
In post 215, Lucian wrote:Still thinking Greeting is scum. 210 does not make any sense as a reason to townread Dannflor when you consider the nature of this setup - scum need to be closer to the top right now, not just have someone else be at the bottom - and the fact that Menalque dropped in advocating for Dannflor to not be in the coalition. Which, if Menalque is town and Dannflor is scum, is a problem if people start listening to him.
I don't think this makes Dannflor scum, I am currently skeptical of Menalque myself. But it does make me think Greeting is scum more. And things posts like 203 and 205 make it look like he's trying to really make sure that we know he is really thinking about this game and changing his reads.
I have explained this already in 210, and I still uphold that. If you disagree with it then there's nothing more I can do for you.
People on this site dislike my playing style or find it unnatural all the time, regardless whether I actually am town or mafia. Not sure why that keeps happening, but at this point I just got used to it.
I will need to refresh the actual
Lucian
scumread, because a lot of posts appeared in these past few days and I haven't caught up with them yet.
PEdit @
Dannflor
: You're not quoting posts or indicating to whom you're referring with your posts. I don't know if you're trying to interact with me or speak to someone else? I would appreciate it of you used @Greeting or any form of indication, because otherwise it's puzzling.
, if I had to pick a coalition right now, it would be me, Una, Menalque, Dannflor, and Junko.
HEAL: Dannflor, Junko, Lucian, Menalque, Una
I originally wasn't planning to even placeholder-heal this yet, but I dislike not having my vote in play properly. So I'll heal it with an asterisk that it's very much a subject to change.
Ironically enough, I've gotten to a kind-of-townread on Junko for the same reasons I didn't like her at first.
Menalque I don't townread strongly, but I did see some townie pings in his posting, and I think he's a better pick than someone like Vanders currently. I want to speak to both him and Dannflor before I commit to their votes, though.
I'm starting to feel like Ydrasse's play this game is more engineered to get people to like her, rather than to actually solve.
This is a great post, I don't think scum would give this read on junko
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Post #476 (isolation #16) » Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:42 pm
Postby Greeting »
In post 233, unwnd wrote:Effort is very easy to fake however. I know this from experience. I've made my millions by faking effort. It is a strategy to try and overwhelm someone and make it sound convincing.
Lucian's approach isn't exactly
overwhelming
, but the basis of my scumread is closely related to the act of convincing someone. Lucian's posts (as a whole) is that he looks like he's trying to convince
himself.
To convince oneself his mentality is green even when the shade of his role PM contradicts.
This very notion is exacerbated by his odd willingness to back down on things when given even the slightest amount of pushback. We had a conversation about Junko and both agreed that was she did was weird. OK. Why are we here now where he suddenly agrees with Junko being town. It's not that townies can't be influenced by those around them, but that read in particular felt quite strong even if early. The processing in which his thoughts formulate are sort of always keeping close to what everyone is doing instead of what he should be doing. This type of willingness to engage would be alright if he were offering some sort of perspective in the mix. He really hasn't and he continues to make observation without trying to reach conclusion.
Is this, like, alignment indicative at all? This can easily be explained by herd mentality, which benefits both scum and a townie who doesn't want to stand out and get eliminated.
As a matter of fact, I think that going against herd mentality is a stronger sign of towniness. Mafia are less likely to do it, especially less experienced mafa, simply because it draws attention.