Micro 5: The Cult (Game Over)

[Mehdi2277]

Here's a quick set of reads from what I've caught up on:

Shotty- Town. Claiming watcher is a pretty horrible scum claim (simply because if he accidentally screws up once with his report it'd get him lynched quick here). I also don't think the cult leader would want shotty as an apostle. So I'll take the report as true and klazam can't be apostle.

Klazam: Can't be apostle. Leaning town from his transparent play (mostly I can follow his logic).

Kcda: No clue what his supposed not random vote meant since I don't see the super secret scum in the post he pointed out. Xal had said little at the time and none of the prs could have checked xalxe. Defended two people purely on meta. Later opened the door to voting shotty when he starts saying he's looking a bit scummy now. Has been vague on his reads. Although if he was CA I doubt he'd convert either so the cult motivation there is lacking. Claimed protector. Is not counter claimed. Leaning town overall.

Mister X: Reaching on klazam near the start and seems overly confident but doesn't push much. Leaning scum from play (although he did fine on trevor's reaction test). Although he did claim he could clear himself so if he can that wouldn't hurt as we continue.

Oversoul: Can't be apostle. He's given his sides fairly transparent and is leaning town.

Timeeater: Don't agree with several parts of his reasoning. Not sure how shotty posting at the exact minute the cult leader posted on his CAA makes him more scummy (I kind of doubt a 14 year old would have two accounts open at the same time). His pushing so much on shotty just seems unneeded. A pressure vote is pretty useless if you call it that. His reads and opinions are transparent though. The way he reacted to trev claiming apostle looked genuine. Small lean town overall.

Mist: Has been just gliding by and has done really little. She asked shotty to scum hunt when she's done little herself (and attacked trevor for little content which is again being a hypocrite there). Leaning scum.

Next klazam what happened to mass claiming today? With the cult leader being unable to kill at all I think it'd be beneficial. It's not really time to worry about a possible convert when the cult leader/apostle are both still alive. Popcorn claiming works. I'd want mist to claim first.

If my two scum reads one claimed that they can clear themselves, so VOTE: Mist.

[Mehdi2277]

Klazam- Role Blocker
Shotty- Watcher
Kcda- Protector
Mist- Vanilla
Mehdi- Vanilla

Vanilla Town is my claim. Popcorn Timeater next.

[Mehdi2277]

Why vote mist shotty?

[Mehdi2277]

If it wasn't for the fact that I doubt a Cult Leader would choose to convert you then I'd say blatant sheeping is bad.

And time what do you have against claiming here?

I think I might be getting shotgun mixed up with someone, but I thought I remembered reading that.

And I don't expect the average 14 year old to have two accounts open for safety like that. It's not complicated, it's just not something I'd personally even bother to do.

P-Edit: Yeah I get mixed up with another user. Either way the point is I still doubt most people would have two accounts open just for an alibi like that.

[Mehdi2277]

I just find having two accounts open as something most people wouldn't bother to do. It's like initial letter bread crumbing. It helps but most people wouldn't bother to do it.

And I got cult leader/apostle a bit mixed up in some places. OS still can't be apostle since he was protected. Reading over that wall can't remember the reason why I decided klazam isn't cl/apostle, but either way I still think he's leaning town.

[Mehdi2277]

Wait I remember and it was right. Klazam can't be apostle since he wasn't targeted by anyone.

[Mehdi2277]

I think shotty is town so that removes that problem (anyways if klazam ever flips apostle that means shotty dies quickly next). Trying to raise doubt on people doesn't really help my suspicions. Anyways mist who do you suspect exactly? A list of scum/town reads from you would help.

[Mehdi2277]

Read back. The idea behind the mass claim was klazam's and I liked the idea. At the time the cult leader hadn't really converted but now that the conversion is likely done I don't see a reason not to claim. The cult doesn't have a kill (and before someone says the apostle can convert later we can deal with that once the CL is dead assuming apostle doesn't die first). Mass claiming just gives us more information and in this set up I find that a good thing.

And OS, I think Kcd replaced out of all his games so I really doubt it has any affect on his alignment (still think he's not cult leader though).

[Mehdi2277]

Time can you clarify? The cult already knows who several of the prs (we've had 3 pr claims already and there's only 3 people yet to claim one of which hinted pr) are so it's not like your claim is going to help them a ton. I don't see how claiming hurts us much here.

[Mehdi2277]

So no stance on me at all? You only answered the first two questions and not the 3rd.

[Mehdi2277]

Can the votes be any less spread out? And Klazam popcorn someone besides time since he's not going to claim.

[Mehdi2277]

If what you revealed isn't connect to your role could you say it for all of us?

[Mehdi2277]

If it doesn't matter would it hurt to claim?

Anyways the ATP agent would be useful. Protector can still prevent the apostle from converting, roleblocker is unlikely to help until later on. Vig helps assuming we have a good vig. So I disagree that all the prs are currently useless.

[Mehdi2277]

Protected from what? Cult leader can't target anyone for the rest of the game. Apostle can't target anyone until cult leader is dead.

[Mehdi2277]

Klazam- Role Blocker
Shotty- Watcher
Kcda- Protector
Mist- Vanilla
Mehdi- Vanilla
Timeater- One shot tracker (now I understand why you want shotty to pick someone random)

OS or mister x can go next. Tim can pick (doesn't really matter to me).

[Mehdi2277]

I personally want the kill to be used today. Multiple prs can confirm themselves. Tim can prove his power by saying who shotty watched before shotty reveals it. If shotty targets someone that proves he's watcher (so they can confirm each other). Having the vig confirm he's telling the truth gives us three clears. OS and Klazam also can't be apostle assuming the prs are true (although both the role blocker and the protector aren't clear). At this point I want to do two lynches today. First we fos people for a fake vote count (well fos count). First person to have the majority fos them will be shot the vig. Then we do a true lynch allowing us to do two kills in one day.

[Mehdi2277]

I personally want to lynch in the vanillas. With three having the ability to prove themselves none of them I want to lynch at all. Klazam I think is town. Kcda is null but for now I don't have much reason to want to lynch him. Of the three mist would be my first lynch.

[Mehdi2277]

I know you claimed role blocker (your one of the two prs that can't really prove themselves). Anyway the three vanillas are me, mist, and oversoul. Of the other two I'd rather lynch mist then os.

[Mehdi2277]

Kcda claimed protector. Admittingly it's a pr that's hard to confirm but I honestly don't think he's CL (apostle maybe but CL no). That's based on pure meta though from past scum games (yeah I realize it doesn't help much but making a case for him not cult leader isn't something I want to do when I think he started as town).

I do have an idea on how to pro

Mod: If a one shot vig is role blocked when they use the day kill is the use lost?

If yes then getting klazam to role block x can prove klazam's role (although that does stall the kill until tomorrow).

[Mehdi2277]

EBWOP: on how to prove klazam's role claim is true (assuming that klazam and x aren't both cult).

[Mehdi2277]

Right now I'd actually be fine going slow since cult can't really do a thing right now with role powers. Tracker should confirm shotty is acting first. Next shotty can check the targets of the protector and role blocker to see if they were already targeted. No lynching until we can prove the prs are all true could work fine (a bit tedious, but it'd prove all the prs although the vig can wait to prove when we decide their kill).

Mod: What's your rule on happily ever after?

[Mehdi2277]

The main problem with the plan is if the cult actually has a PR. I personally find it unlikely (although it could exist) and if the cult doesn't have prs this slow method should clear all the prs.

And one last question:

Mod: If a PR is converted do they keep their power?

[Mehdi2277]

No that was stupid. The special lynch mechanic screws that up (I have feeling now the purpose of that was to prevent town stalling for info like that). Well second question still helps to know the answer although the first is useless.

[Mehdi2277]

If os flips cl that would mean there would have to be a apostle. If mist flips cl I guess she could have targeted OS (not sure who mist would want as an apostle) although if mist is CL game would likely continue anyway.

I'm fine with that choice, but why am I town?

[Mehdi2277]

I'd rather target likely cult leaders. The fact the apostle doesn't even know their own CL makes relational tells weaker. And I find a cult leader watcher as a role that only has the power to see if someone was targeted (not who targeted them since the watcher here is weaker then most) to be unlikely.

Anyways klazam can only be cult if shotty is cult. If shotty flips town then that means his report on klazam not being converted would be true and would clear him. If you suspect klazam you have to lynch shotty first since shotty's flip would show klazam's likely alignment.

[Mehdi2277]

Anyways I realize normally apostle is a bigger target so I'll explain in a bit more:

If shotty flips town watcher it becomes impossible for klazam to be apostle.
If shotty flips cult, then klazam is likely apostle.

Anyways the no two investigation roles isn't as true as normal since the current watcher is a much weaker version of the role.

[Mehdi2277]

The only way klazam can possibly be scum without shotty is if he's cult leader which you yourself have said you think he was town day 1.

[Mehdi2277]

@Mehdi

According to common sense and the mod (read what zor said in his first post - "hint: apostle should be first priority), the proper play is to go after the apostle so he wont have the option to convert.

Not here. And I'll add if shotty flips CL we can quick lynch klazam tomorrow before the apostle conversion would end and win the game. If you lynch the apostle before the 72 hours for his conversion finish town win.

Tim the watcher here only learns if a player was targeted (doesn't find out the name of who targeted them if the player picked was targeted). It's pretty weak watcher version.

And whoever we pick to lynch should just be vig killed. I'd be willing to accept a shotty kill since it 90 percent clears klazam. You can track kcda and sees if he targets anyone (like a protector should) at night and if kcda did target someone that should clear him too. I prefer a mist death over shotty, but shotty dead is acceptable.

[Mehdi2277]

Would both mist and shotty dead by today's end work (one by lynch the other by vig kill)?

[Mehdi2277]

I suspect mist. No complicated reason for her (look at past posts from me I voted her awhile ago and the vote is still there).

[Mehdi2277]

Anyways kill preference here is mist>shotty (if shotty is scum then klazam).

And tim klazam as CL just feels unlikely to me (mainly for stuff you said before).

[Mehdi2277]

I'm going more off the fact he looked likely town day 1 with his play. You had him as a town read then (main point is I didn't see him as scummy then).

[Mehdi2277]

I kind of dislike the fact I'm treated as clear for flaking (kind of removes a bit of fun for something not in thread to make me town). Anyways either way it's too much on one point. One point doesn't make an argument.

And klazam who do you want lynched/vigged right now?

[Mehdi2277]

kind of dislike the fact I'm treated as clear for flaking (kind of removes a bit of fun for something not in thread to make me town).

I'm assuming he said that in reference to this. Tim fos was the first time I think he's made it.

[Mehdi2277]

Based solely on posting times site wide- I think I can clear drmyshotgun.

The cult leader posted his recruitment: 6:17 pm

Name. Post time before CL post. Post time after CL post

DMSG- 6:14, 6:17, 6:18 (the same time, which makes it nearly impossible for him to be the CL methinks
KCDA- 4:07, 8:11
Mist- 5:47 - 12:39 (being the last poster in the thread before the CL, so I doubt that was mist)
MX- 3:31- 9:51
Oversoul: 529-701
Trevor: 6:01-7:19 (he looks the worst here methinks)
Klazam: 4:27-6:19. (Included for completeness's sake. Goddamn ninja cult)
Timeater 10:21-8:18 (fattest gap here, so I sincerly doubt it's him)
Xalxe- 2:52- no posts (I think I'm clearing him (again)now due to his semi-v/la)

ok. So the cleared people here are: (from my POV)

Klazam (myself, duh)
Shotgun
Timeater
Xalxe
Mist


Leaving KCDA, X, oversoul, Trevor.

Kcda's cluelessness I'm willing to attribute to townie ness.


So for me it's between x, OS, Trevor.

I think that scum can feign finding me scummy, (it's easy if you haven't noticed.)

I still like Trevor for the chopping block.

What do you all think of my analysis?

I also dislike this list when connected to the people he want dead. All 3 of the people he wants dead were town reads (although I understand me being suspected if you remove xalxe flaking as a defense)

[Mehdi2277]

Oh I read badly.

[Mehdi2277]

Correct. The person the protector targets can not be converted.

[Mehdi2277]

Anyway FUCK IT.

What I think should be done is that the Lynches should be put to L-1. I have ideas of how this will play it but I don't want it to happen but screw it.

What I think will happen and if this is true hopefully it will since the benefits are mutual. When the CL gets to l-1 he will claim so the Apostle can martyr. At that point we will know that A the CL recruited and B there is an apostle outside of myself and Klazam.

Vig shot will be used and then lynch out of suspects in the VT pool.

Or the cult leader won't claim thinking we won't hammer him at that point if he doesn't claim. A bit risky, but claiming CL is extremely risky since if another town who didn't vote them is on before the apostle is online he'll be hammered before getting martyred. I personally think your theory of what will happen is unlikely to occur if that situation appeared.

[Mehdi2277]

Yes, but the only conceivable way the apostle could martyr is if the apostle is on before another townie. If town A notices the cl claimed and the apostle isn't on at the moment then the townie can just hammer before the apostle ever martyrs (plus the CL could not claim expecting people to leave his bw since he didn't claim cl).

I personally prefer a mist lynch. Shotty can prove he's a watcher by having tim track him to acting on someone (and I don't think a weakened watcher is a role a CL would have).

[Mehdi2277]

We can't use the vig today (the vig kill happens 24 hours after he posts it and at this rate we'll have less then 24 hours for him to post it).

[Mehdi2277]

If saying can we lynch works so well can I just repeat the same thing (lynch mist please). I find it doubtful for klazam to be CL from his day 1 play and while he might be apostle the only way for him to be apostle is if shotty is cl. The fact shotty is willing to lynch him makes me really doubt klazam/shotty is a pair.

[Mehdi2277]

OS why shotty right now? We can clear him through tim and his watcher power can help check some things. Kcda target me please. Shotty target me. If your report says I was targeted then that should prove kcda is a pr (and protector is extremely unlikely to be a cult leader power and I don't think he's the most likely apostle). Klazam don't use your power since it won't help here.

[Mehdi2277]

Shotty watch me. Kcda protect me. Tim track shotty. Said all that in my last post, but repeat (mostly for shotty).

[Mehdi2277]

Anyways can we hear the reports? Tim did shotty target someone?

[Mehdi2277]

And mist was the person I tried to lynch since I replaced in so it wasn't a compromise lynch (shotty was if he'd actually reached L-1 where I'd hammer to have a lynch).

[Mehdi2277]

The point was for klazam or kcda and shotty to target me. If shotty said I was targeted that means (kcda or klazam) would have actually been telling the truth on their pr. If he said I was not targeted then one of them lied about their claim and lynch all liars works for me.

[Mehdi2277]

Anyways how else do you want a weakened watcher to work? All his power says is if a person was targeted not who targeted them so trying to coordinate stuff is the way I saw to prove the existence of some of the prs.

[Mehdi2277]

You realize watcher checks if the person was targeted in the day or night.

[Mehdi2277]

They were supposed to in the original idea.

[Mehdi2277]

OS why vote tim first then swap shortly after? More reasoning on your first vote today would be helpful.

[Mehdi2277]

I just find it strange you have a modifier that wasn't mentioned in the opening post where zor specifically went to mention x-shot vs unlimited.

Anyways vote wise I still want mist dead. VOTE: Mist

[Mehdi2277]

That's impossible. Apostle can't recruit when CL is alive.

[Mehdi2277]

And mist was hammered and is now soon to be dead. Mist can you claim your true alignment now?

[Mehdi2277]

Shotty can I hear your report?

Anyway VOTE: Tim. The only way that fits with the rules with CL converting a second time (apostle can't convert with CL alive) is if CL was role blocked. If someone a different theory for how that's possible then sure, but otherwise I think tim has to be scum for it.

[Mehdi2277]

I thought you said you weren't going to track anyone until CL died? Anyways you've pretty much locked yourself in a 1 vs 1 (and if I'm lynched you'll just die tomorrow while town can search for your apostle).

[Mehdi2277]

Is it even possible for a player to role block themselves?

Anyways for everyone else if tim was actually telling the truth he should be happy to be lynched (if he died as 1 shot tracker then me and shotty can be lynched tomorrow and the cult will have lost). The fact he's avoiding the lynch when in his position his death should prove me and shotty as scum isn't a good thing.

[Mehdi2277]

I assumed it didn't matter what account the CL used. Cultist 2 wasn't used day 1.

[Mehdi2277]

If he flips town tracker that'd confirm me and shotty as scum. It's ideal to lynch him from any perspective.

[Mehdi2277]

I find it interesting the CL wasn't martyr'd before the. The fact they weren't makes me want to say the apostle wasn't sure who his CL was.

Beyond that I'll read over things a bit more later. Considering tim was blocked day 1 and didn't actually recruit until late day 3 that means the apostle was made at the end of day 3. The first three days of posts everyone here should have been town so only day 4 is really useful now.

[Mehdi2277]

It was Kcda. He claimed protector and targeted oversoul. That doesn't honestly help though considering when the CL makes an apostle the apostle gets to keep their power role if they had one.

And hmmm what?

[Mehdi2277]

Why? He was one of the three who pushed for tim most (other two being me and you) and while apostle doesn't know the CL I'd assume he'd try to figure it out and not let a person he thinks is CL die.

[Mehdi2277]

I'd assume everyone would if they were apostle and were in a place were the person they thought was Cl was almost lynched. I want to say the lack of martyr means the apostle didn't think tim was cult (which doesn't really make sense since that would mean that he was tracker and me and drmy would be cult in that scenario).

As for tim pushing on shotty I'm honestly null on the earlier part of it. The interesting thing was he started by voting me and then only later when he likely knew he'd die did he move to voting shotty. It still has too much wifom in it to really have me decide a read on shotty for it.

And kcda can you explain your town read on toast?

[Mehdi2277]

OS how does not being on at recruitment affect things? Recruitment thinks 72 hours or at the end of the phase to happen. It doesn't happen instantly. And anyways I was referring to the apostle not martyring tim day 4 when he got lynched.

[Mehdi2277]

Well that applies to me most then. I kept track of the thread, but after the initial arguments on getting him lynched I just mostly waited since some of the pages were just a lot of chatter.

Really though (it's a bit late here so I'll re-read tomorrow) day 4 is the only day to look at when it comes to the players alive so it shouldn't be a lot to later go through.

[Mehdi2277]

I disagree with OS being clear considering tim converted in a way where he wouldn't have to worry about any role blocking or protection.

And klazam just because you're online doesn't mean you'll post a lot in every thread you look at constantly. I was here about two hours before tim was lynched so I don't really think that martyring reasoning works.

At this point I think shotty and klazam are both likely town (klazam simply because looking at the his day 4 and now play it appears town). Shotty since if tim got the lynch he tried for at start he'd have lost the game for himself if shotty was apostle.

[Mehdi2277]

So at this point it's between toast and kcda for me.

[Mehdi2277]

You shouldn't. It'll just leave us in a strange lylo.

[Mehdi2277]

I'm not using the fact he did that as a defense. It's pure wifom why he did it to everyone else. It can be used to clear shotty since cult would have lost if shotty was lynched and flipped apostle when tim claimed he was CL.

[Mehdi2277]

So what did you mean in it? Your idea was it was a gambit to make me look more town. Making yourself look town and defending yourself by past things are similar even if not the same.

[Mehdi2277]

Klazam I still think your over relying on the martyr thing to clear kcda. Again like before I think the apostle is either kcda or oversoul.

And klazam if you're looking at that day I was the first to push tim and pushed him at the start of that day. I can't defend myself from what tim did. Tim isn't me.

And lastly this is minor but can I please be called he and him.

[Mehdi2277]

I would have known the second recruitment was real if I was apostle which no one else would have known for sure (and then that third random recruit). Connecting dots would make it easy to guess the apostle was most likely tim (only other way is OS was targeted, so targeting tim assuming random says a 50 percent chance of CL lynch).

The main thing I dislike against me is most of it is association on what he did (which is impossible to defend against). What did I do?

[Mehdi2277]

I'm fine being lynched tomorrow if toast doesn't come up as CL. And I think klazam is the most likely to be town here.

[Mehdi2277]

EBWOP: And shotty assuming we go with the plan of os lynched, then me, then kcda. I think OS is more likely then kcda but I really doubt shotty or klazam are cult right now.

[Mehdi2277]

I don't have anything to add (most of the stuff against me is association or PoE). Anyways lynch kcda tomorrow while klazam role blocks os. If it reaches three person lylo lynch os. I'd prefer os sooner but it doesn't change things either way.

[Mehdi2277]

Klazam I think shotty posted the hammer already.

[Mehdi2277]

Well the important thing is just stick with that plan. I really doubt you or shotty are apostle so it should be auto win for town.

And after the game ends having tips on my play would be nice.

[Mehdi2277]

What do you mean?

[Mehdi2277]

For any wondering why I acted at the end I actually wanted to do a hammer gambit, since I was curious if klazam's vote would be counted.

And I don't honestly think the set up was town sided. I was pretty sure tim was scum so I tried bussing him, but bussing didn't really get town cred when the apostle isn't supposed to know the CL.

[Mehdi2277]

For any wondering why I acted at the end I actually wanted to do a hammer gambit, since I was curious if klazam's vote would be counted.

And I don't honestly think the set up was town sided. I was pretty sure tim was scum so I tried bussing him, but bussing didn't really get town cred when the apostle isn't supposed to know the CL.

[Mehdi2277]

And zor you can go ahead and delete one of those posts/sorry for the dp of the same thing.

Beyond that any opinions on how I played? I ended up doing badly on the final day (how do I debate not being online when I was just busy with stuff the day tim got hammered?)

[Mehdi2277]

I was honestly more annoyed dealing with an argument saying kcda and klazam (well it would have applied to klazam if mentioned) are town for being online when cult could have martyr'd. With tim's being role blocked if the cult targeted OS day 1 wouldn't they be able to recruit again? There was one way for him to be town and for no apostle to exist.

And my goal was to just make it to day 6, and make klazam kingmaker (by claiming and letting him pick a side to win) since I had trouble seeing how I could get three mislynches in a row.

[Mehdi2277]

I think your early game play was meh, but mid game and later on you really took control of the town and played well imo. I'd have to look over the beginning to know what exactly that you should improve.

I would have honestly lynched tim either way on day 4 even if I was town for the same reason I gave. Becoming cult was a surprise although I did enjoy it day 4. In fact I didn't notice it until later, but the fact zor specifically mentioned one modifier type in his first post made it really unlikely any others could exist yet tim claimed not being able to use his power day 1 (even if he wasn't role blocked).

[Mehdi2277]

He probably could have gotten a mislynch day 4 on shotty if it wasn't that hammer (and then convert then). That would made him a obvious lynch next, but it would made day 6 a game where town would need to lynch in 72 hours when the apostle had only existed since day 5.

And zor I really enjoyed the game and likely would play another (partly because cults are fairly rare and seeing them a bit more would be nice in open games).

[Mehdi2277]

I wanted to martyr you near the end, but I was offline most of Saturday with club and zoo stuff. I'm not sure how well just martyring you at the start would have worked out (well it would have been better at least and would have let me recruit klazam today quickly).

And tim how did logic kill me?