The Chosen One (Micro 10) - Game Over!

[Equinox]

...so who am I sheeping?

[Equinox]

That's a no to lynching Amrun, then. Awesome.

Though lynching Nachomamma8 while he's gone sounds tempting.

[Equinox]

That was fun.

Questions for ewo2:

1) How strong are your current reads?
2) Judging from the state of the game and the state of your reads, which of your reads do you feel would be the most controversial?
3) Defend your read from step 2 like your life depends on it because it probably does.

Unvote

Anyway, sleep first, lynch later.

[Equinox]

I can definitely see how it could be considered WIFOM.

What was the purpose of this statement?

[Equinox]

He just wanted everyone to know he can play with the big boys.

What do you make of his post, considering the context?

I was saying what my opinion of the amrun post, it's meaningless WIFOM, and I think she could be asking better questions than that.

...so were you just throwing that out of the blue, answering Amrun's question, or what?

[Equinox]

Why would you answer a question that wasn't addressed to you?

[Equinox]

...so when you see a bad question directed at someone else, you answer it to make a point. Cool.

[Equinox]

Yes. 'sup?

[Equinox]

Maybe later.

[Equinox]

Hi.

Thanks for answering my question, ewo2. By the way, what happened to your kondi2424 read?

VOTE: ewo
Back on my first choice.

How does ewo2 fit as FUT/Amrun's scum partner?

The fact that you jumped on the amrun wagon right after I said she's been L-1 a couple of times really makes me think you're scum. You just bussed your partner after realizing you weren't going to get someone else lynched.

Why would ewo2-scum try to lynch kondi2424, who had at least 2 other players claim to be very highly likely town?

No offence but I don't think you're good enough to shift your entire scum playstyle to the degree that you'd have had to have done so as scum this game.

What's your opinion on the possibility of Melmond doing this?

I thought there was a chance she'd flip scum, but honestly there was some luck there too.

...say what?

RedCoyote, how much research do you typically do on a player before making a case on him/her?

[Equinox]

Vote: Majiffy

[Equinox]

Glad you agree.

Let's try that again. How does ewo2 fit as FUT/Amrun's scum partner? None of this individual reads stuff; you've got a flip right there to work with, not to point to when you're going back to your first choice.

[Equinox]

I'm not sure what you're asking about, if you mean him posting Post 410 as scum I think his attitude is fairly townish there, I think one of the larger reasons that I wasn't killed over Grey is because scum were expecting Peta to hard-push me today and don't think he'd be shooting him down like he did there as scum in that case.

It was more of a question of if you thought that Melmond would be capable of turning around his scum meta. I took a look while catching up at his old games; he seemed a lot more tentative as scum than as town, and he's only played the one scum game. You have a point about his response to petapan, though.

Your entire reason for voting me is that I'm not Melmond or Equinox, and
"Majjify is bleh. His ignorance of the case and reasoning put forward against the FUT slot to proceeding to join it later when Amrun comes in is something I'm not sure how to read, I think the earlier action (First 3/4 of the day) fits fairly well as a partner but after that ehhh. Going to leave him up to you to read peta."?

Are you typically this dismissive of cases people make against you? This doesn't even appear to be a case, more like Regfan musing and then punting the issue to petapan. Besides, I don't remember you doing this in Mini 1326, even when things became silly.

@Equinox: Could you tell us your case on majiffy and maybe give some reads? It seems all we're getting from you is questions, no analysis at all.

Shh. I'm trying to get away with a crime against humanity here.

I'm voting Majiffy because he's being annoying. While Majiffy's disposition is generally annoying, I'm hoping I could better discern between the town version of annoying and the scum version by pushing his buttons because trying to read him in other games didn't work too well.

As for reads, I'm not sharing because they're either town reads -- which I don't feel like sharing -- or I need to read deeper into them. Everything else should be (sort of) evident based on where my questions are aimed. ...or not, which would be ideal anyway.

[Equinox]

Does that make sense?

Yeah. I was more interested in why you seemingly ignored kondi2424 flaking from the site, but you answered that and more, so fair enough.

kondi2424 replacing out at the time of the FUT wagon was coincidental. I can't explain his behavior prior to that, but I know he's left the site completely -- to the point of deactivating his account -- so school starting or whatever else could've been a factor there.

You're right in that I didn't react to this L-1 like I usually^? have, and that was on purpose. There was a week or so before the deadline hit, and I was hoping I'd get a better read on enough players that I could just fly on process of elimination. For instance, getting an answer out of ewo2 and being able to read it was an easier task than prodding at Amrun, who I can't read despite having played multiple games with her. I would've supported petapan on FUT but not his opinion that Regfan was bussing, but GreyICE's hammer caught me by surprise; none of this is in the thread, though, so take that for what it's worth.

Against what? A valid case has yet to be brought up against me on either vote.

A case not being "valid" by your standards doesn't mean you get to ignore it. You did not ignore me when I pressed you for something that was stupid by both of our standards in the other game, so why should this game be any different?

[Equinox]

I'm using meta as a basis for my vote on you. From your point of view, I should be wrong, so dissuade me or try to figure out if I'm purposefully misusing meta to get you lynched for my own evil ends. You love using associative tells to the point where you put aside your individual reads in Mini 1326 to look for scum partners, and that got you to reexamine a town read who turned out to be scum. What's going on here, where you haven't even bothered and instead just slapped a vote down on ewo2? Do you really think there were competing wagons on both Amrun and ewo2, one at L-1 and the other at L-2?

Why do I even have to elaborate this far?

[Equinox]

I already didn't think kondi was playing particularly well, but when Equinox did nothing of value before the day finished (besides having plenty of time to do so), I had a feeling something was up.

Let me correct this, since this part of your case isn't exactly correct:

I replaced in on August 29 at 6:20 PM PDT.
I finished catching up on August 29 at 10:37 PM PDT.
GreyICE hammered on August 31 at 2:54 PM PDT.

That's 44 hours. If I'd dragged this on for days and days, I would understand why this is a point of contention, but it was less than 2 days. It's enough time to make a passing remark or something -- which I didn't do -- but wouldn't qualify as "plenty," which carries heavier implications for what I should have done about that wagon.

[Equinox]

The only line you responded to was RC's slight doubt that amrun was scum, and RC put together a pretty big paragraph of reasons he thought you might be scum. You just kind of breezed past it.

I might have done more than poke at RedCoyote's comment about his surprise at Amrun's flip...

There isn't a point to it. The crux of the case is that I didn't do anything significant upon replacing in and did not mention the Amrun wagon when RedCoyote had expected me to. As far as the thread is concerned, that is true; I poked at you, Melmond, and a little bit of Majiffy, and I ignored Amrun. Whatever the truth actually is with regards to what I did when I replaced into the game, it's not relevant as a response to RedCoyote's case because it wasn't in the thread and therefore did not happen. After all, I could be making it all up, and there's no evidence to suggest otherwise.

Furthermore, to respond to his contention that I had no idea what to do with Amrun in hot water, I'd have to use self-meta. If I told you that I have no trouble throwing scum buddies who were in even less trouble than Amrun under the bus, that wouldn't be very useful; all it says is that I'm aware of my meta as scum and could act contrary to it at any time.

The time is better spent hunting scum. Besides, I'm not that great at responding to cases against me but am a bit better with recovering slots based on cases, analyses, and maybe even some thought vomit.

Bleh. I was going to sit this out tonight, but I might as well read some more while I'm here.

[Equinox]

Unvote

I'm rereading the game, and I'm somewhere on page 9. I'll continue tomorrow to look for interactions with Amrun, but, for right now, I'll just dump stuff here because Notepad is a poor surface off which to bounce ideas and because being purposefully obtuse isn't working too well for me.

As much as I hate Majiffy for not diving into vote counts and associative tells like he's done before, he does have a point that it's Day 2 with one scum down, so meh? Rereading his argument with RedCoyote makes me think he could be town, since I'd expect him to have backed down a bit sooner if he were scum, given that the entire argument revolved around a misunderstanding. Also, if what Majiffy said is true about his inclination to bus, it'd be difficult to resist doing that when the opportunity presents itself; I'll see later when I get to Amrun. Anyway, unvote.

ewo2 probably isn't scum. His frustration with people "[riding] off of their reputations" (quoted, sort of) reads as genuine, and I get the feeling he'd have at least tried to frame that to his advantage as scum as opposed to just sitting there and complaining about it as he did. Ground here has already been tread, so moving along.

I've got town reads on Melmond and petapan. Don't ever waste a lynch on Melmond; that'd be bad. Regfan I'd like to have a town read on, but petapan's insistence on voting Regfan makes me want to take a closer look first, and I have no idea what Regfan looks like as scum anyway.

RedCoyote's the kind of player whose posts need to be picked apart and unfortunately the posts are big, so that's going to wait. My general impression while catching up was town; I didn't have the "Oh, thank goodness for a sane man in this sea of insanity" revelation while reading, so that's a good sign.

tl;dr - No scum reads, yay.

[Equinox]

That's his scum tell.

At least, that's what I've noticed. Your mileage may vary.

[Equinox]

Melmond has had about two months to polish his scum game since his first in Newbie 1251. I doubt he'd have gone from lurky, low content to post post post in that amount of time; it's not the sort of transition that happens suddenly and in that short of a time span.

[Equinox]

i'm trying to!!!

No, you're not. Your vote is on Regfan because you believe he bussed FUT. Regfan responds that you should be able to tell based on meta that Regfan is town, but you never responded to that. To what meta is Regfan playing, then?

The case on FUT wasn't as bad as you make it out to be.

[Equinox]

Mod: I unvoted in post 478.

[Equinox]

When did you think you'd voted Majiffy?

[Equinox]

tbh if i want to go with some pretentious theory i just realized kondi's slot could, potentially, fit as scum idk though i've basically been giving them a pass all game

If you're going to do that, please do it now so that if you end up concluding that I should be lynched, I will flip and still have enough time to laugh at RedCoyote (or curse him yet again, but that depends).

Talk to me about Melmond. Why is he scum?

[Equinox]

Look, I'm just going to put my cards on table and say it. I'm worried what ewo did has relation to one of Mel and Majiffy being a chosen townie. Thoughts, anyone?

Let ewo2 answer first. We can talk about the implications later; he shouldn't have hints on how to navigate the labyrinth he's in.

[Equinox]

The next time ewo2's name comes up, it had better be in a post by ewo2 or by Nachomamma8.

I'm dead serious. I may be going overboard with this, but I do not want to have to doubt ewo2's response(s) and have to guess at whether or not he just parroted someone.

[Equinox]

Well played, sir.

[Equinox]

Last visited: Mon Sep 10, 2012 3:39 pm

Vote: ewo2

[Equinox]

Hi ewo2.

Just so you know, I am considering moving my vote off you due to a certain thing that happened in this game sometime ago.

But that depends on the host of things awaiting your response(s).

[Equinox]

Hmm.

Unvote

[Equinox]

I was expecting ewo2 to come up with something to answer my and RedCoyote's questions about the invisible Majiffy vote, but instead it's just this, and it reminds me of people who bumble about when they're trying to claim their role but can't get it together long enough to not get lynched. Besides, I don't think he'd lie about that.

In any case, whatever that was probably has no bearing on his alignment. I want to say he's town for how he sounded, but I'm munching on some Amrun posts now, so I'll probably see in a bit.

[Equinox]

Okay, so: RedCoyote's town, and ewo2's probably town. Can explain but later.

I'll look through Majiffy's and Regfan's meta links maybe tomorrow.

petapan, I can see where you're coming from with Melmond's interactions with Amrun, but that meta difference was pretty damn significant.

and Meta Mafia where our hydra reads were almost identical from memory but we lolviggedtown N1.

*shakes fist and makes obscene gestures*

[Equinox]

Equinox - as far as Mel's meta, do you really think it plays that big a role? I think a lot of improvement can happen over the course of two years - if it was two months I'd agree with you but I do think two years is enough time to think it's believable that Mel would have a different approach.

It's two months.

While two months can make a fair bit of difference, in Melmond's case, it would be a

really

big difference. In Newbie 1251, his first scum game, he was lurky, contributed little, and had a relatively low post count; he posted 17 times in 16 pages over the course of one and a half months. In this game, tone and whatnot aside, he's posted 62 times in 23 pages over the course of two months. Even just eyeballing, that's a significant jump in activity level.

Someone who plays scum with lurking and low activity is nervous; they're not confident in their ability to play scum. The jump to a lot of posting and more mouthing off requires roughly the same jump in confidence, and two months can't do that. Furthermore, coming under pressure while trying to post more would have caused Melmond-scum to retreat back into his shell of not posting, as that's a more comfortable state to be in as scum.

[Equinox]

Oh, yeah. Since ewo2's done with Majiffy's question...

This goes into WIFOM territory, but let's play anyway.

HATE this post. HATE it. It's a hokey rvs on kondi right after he gets some negative attention. No.

In Amrun's catch-up post, this is the first thing she points out. Looking back at what this was all about, there was no pressure on kondi2424 that warranted this large of a response from Amrun; simply put, this was really forced, more so than anything else in her post. When Amrun knows she's going down, she tries to manipulate the game beyond her death so that the following lynches can still go her way. Reading this line from her reminded me of that aspect of her scum play, so I figure this was probably what she was trying to do to ewo2: Make a contrived attack against him and make him look like her buddy. She does this to kondi2424, as well, but admittedly it's not to the same degree.

There were also these:

@Peta - where does it say in the setup that the maf know who is chosen? I reread it and don't see that. All I see from the PMs on the front page is

This came a little after GreyICE's confusion of the setup and kondi2424's subsequent town read of GreyICE, so it's not really a town tell; however, when paired with the next one...

if you all honestly think i've played that scummy a game you should lynch me. i'll be a liability in later days. and at the very least it might humble ya'll a bit to see that someone who criticizes your lack of commitment to a game isn't automatically scum.

This came unprompted. Could it be faked? Sure, but ewo2 has since not repeated it or tried to push it the way I expect scum would. When scum say this sort of thing, they want it to be acknowledged. The only acknowledgment ewo2 received for this was petapan's response, and petapan essentially brushed it off as nothing. For scum, it'd be hard to resist trying again, and ewo2 has been in the pressure cooker longer than he's been out.

[Equinox]

Oh, and you not revoting Majiffy (or whoever else) is also a bit off, Equinox. Care to explain that?

I still haven't looked through Majiffy's meta in enough detail, and I want to do that first.

[Equinox]

Sorry, RedCoyote. If the lynch pool were as simple as {ewo2, Majiffy, Melmond}, I'd be more than happy to just run them down, but it's not. While I'm fairly confident in my town reads of the people outside of that pool, I'm not confident in my chances of not getting lynched should things go wrong and we lynch the two town in that group. I'd rather get it right here.

In any case, I should've finished the reading for this game yesterday but didn't, so late is better than never, maybe?

[Equinox]

Actually, Melmond's town, isn't he.

I'm still doing this.

[Equinox]

It's probably not Majiffy. In both Lovers Mafia: The Heterosexual Revolution and Newbie 1269, Majiffy at the very least poked at his buddies and pointed out how scummy they were, and he listed at least one buddy as a lynch option. In this game with FUT being as scummy as he was, Majiffy still didn't bother until the lazy vote on Amrun.

I'll just run with the possibility that it's ewo2 and drop the L-1 on him again. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and will deal with it.

Vote: ewo2

[Equinox]

Majiffy?

That's the thing -- he didn't react. Even in Lovers Mafia, where he tunneled on Pine (town), he threw out MattP (mafia) as scummy and a lynch possibility after Pine. Here, he just tunnels on GreyICE and then RedCoyote without ever mentioning FUT, and FUT was neither town-looking nor inactive.

[Equinox]

Not inactive like ShadedMelee.

FUT posted enough that Majiffy could have pushed for an FUT lynch, but he didn't.

[Equinox]

Not so much for someone who likes to bus. Majiffy would have had to make a point of ignoring FUT, and, judging from what I've read, that doesn't seem like something he'd do.

[Equinox]

Hey, Regfan, why are you town?

Also, I'll be on limited access until Friday or so.

[Equinox]

Good god, I want to lynch Majiffy.

I'll get back to this game in a few hours.

You're thinking he's not? Why?

It wasn't so much suspicion of Regfan but more "Let's poke Regfan and see what comes out." As of the end of Day 2, I had everyone alive as a town read, so something wasn't making sense; I was more confident in my read of you and Majiffy, so I wanted to poke at Regfan and eventually RedCoyote and see if I wasn't being deceived by their play styles or something.

[Equinox]

Majiffy didn't keep up his charade in that Newbie Game, so it looks like we've got a really fun Day tomorrow.

[Equinox]

I'm about 70% sure it's RedCoyote, since it is going to take him all of 2 seconds to convince Melmond that I'm scummier than he is; furthermore, he had already set it up when he voted Majiffy for what is seriously a 100% scum tell:

I do hate both Equinox and you still being alive though.

So, in my game-long tradition of not voting until it's too late, I am not voting yet.

I'm going to read Melmond to make sure I'm more than 70% sure that he's not scum.

[Equinox]

Actually, something just occurred to me.

Despite lynching one of our chosen townies, scum didn't bother killing the other one. Therefore, one can assume that this scenario, with an {Equinox, Melmond, RedCoyote} LyLo, is one that was purposefully set up by the scum.

If RedCoyote is scum, then it makes perfect sense to shoot Regfan, as it would be difficult for RedCoyote to convince Melmond to vote Regfan, even if he tried the "Regfan has lived for a little too long, don't you think" case. He has demonstrated earlier in the game that he can convince Melmond to vote for me in LyLo, especially when one considers that I have not played to conventional standards of town play. (I hear you ghosts snorting down there.) This would also explain why the other chosen townie was not shot: RedCoyote would need both Equinox and Melmond in 3-player LyLo to win.

That's one logical path to take. Let's go down the other with Melmond being scum.

If Melmond is scum, then it would have benefited him to shoot Regfan as far as getting RedCoyote to vote for me. After all, RedCoyote had already set up paranoid suspicion of me for living for so long (I will get into this later), and Regfan was steadfast in his town reads. He also would not have shot me; I had already stated that meta was a strong tell against Melmond being scum, and I had stated that I was a little suspicious of both RedCoyote and Regfan. In that sense, last Night's kill makes sense for both RedCoyote-scum and Melmond-scum. What does NOT make sense for Melmond-scum is shooting GreyICE.

GreyICE ended Day 1 with a town read of Melmond. At this point, Melmond had not yet gotten my support and thus Regfan's; as far as he was concerned, he'd gotten run up fairly recently, and there was a chance of it happening again, since nobody had considered information from Melmond's previous play. Melmond would not have killed an ally, especially someone loud like GreyICE, and especially not when Melmond would have been in only his second scum game.

RedCoyote, thou art scum.

Vote: RedCoyote

Preview edit:

If Majiffy had have flipped scum, we would've won and you could've just said oh well. Him flipping town kind of positions you in such a way that you're looking like you knew it was wrong all along.

I posted that when I looked at Majiffy's game; I wanted to know if the game was over yet, and a quick glance at Majiffy's latest scum game showed that he gave up the charade as soon as he'd been hammered.

If I were doing what you're posturing, I would have done it before Majiffy was hammered. I could've gotten away with something like, "Majiffy sounds scummy as fuck shooting down Regfan's post like that, but he just sounds so genuine in his argument with RedCoyote. Man, I won't vote until I've read this game more."

Melmond, don't listen to RedCoyote. He can tell you all sorts of things about why I made the kills I did, but there's one question he will not be able to answer:

Why would I kill Regfan, who had a very strong town read of my slot, and not RedCoyote, who has been suspicious of me since Day 2?

[Equinox]

Just because the answer to a question is inconvenient doesn't mean it's invalid.

I won't go into wall battles here. If Melmond wants to ask me to explain things, then I will, but there's no point in me arguing with RedCoyote, as it would simply clutter the game, and there's no need to convince scum that he's scum.

RedCoyote suggesting that I would not have killed Regfan to use the argument that I'd have never killed him is, quite frankly, absurd. That would mean me taking an astronomical risk: RedCoyote had already shown signs of being willing to vote me, as was Melmond. The benefit of using "I'd never kill him!" as a defense is small, at best, and there is always the counterargument that I could have done it anyway. I emphasize: The risk is very large for something of small benefit. I take some risks as scum, but I'm not suicidal.

Since this is basically the strongest points I can make for me being town, this is a point I will rehash:

The only reason you haven't been lynched yet is because there's always been someone in your corner to defend your slot. Be it Grey, be it Reg, be it peta... So you can try and pretend like you've had some revelation that Mel couldn't be scum, but in reality your arguments are little more than mafia tactics 101.

Conveniently enough, RedCoyote listed all of the people who had prevented me from being lynched, and they were all killed. RedCoyote is suggesting that I would have killed ALL of my allies to get to a 3-player LyLo with the only two people in the game who would be willing to lynch me.

The risk I would be playing here would not only be impossibly high, it would also be downright stupid.

RedCoyote can say all he wants about how I have played in this game, and I make no claims to having played well; however, I have explained my actions with complete honesty and have nothing further to offer in that avenue. Take his case as you will, and ask away if you have lingering doubts in your mind.

But I leave you with this: Consider who is alive, who is dead, and what has happened in this game. The cliche "facts speak louder than words" has never rung truer than it does here.

[Equinox]

Oh, and he's blaming me for his voting me.

Pretty slimy, IMO.

But seriously, post 646 is why I'm town and why you should vote RedCoyote/Amrun 2012 this election.

[Equinox]

RedCoyote accuses me of appealing to emotion by making myself out to be "noble" and, in the same post, tries to pull me into a wall battle.

Nope. Not happening.

[Equinox]

Voting first in LyLo isn't a scum tell. I vote as soon as I ascertain who is scum, as there's no reason to play coy once the puzzle has been solved. I'm fairly sure I've done it both as town and as scum, but off the top of my head I can tell you I as town voted first in White Flag Mafia of the first Team Mafia

and then lost, forever shall that shame be engraved into my soul

.

Yes, I could kill Regfan and pawn it off as a kill I wouldn't do. What I would not do, however, is kill everyone who has ever supported me and go into 3-player LyLo with the 2 people who haven't liked me ever. There's a point where risks become unreasonable.

[Equinox]

Assuming you're not the greatest performer that ever lived, you are correct. I'm town.

Good game, all.

[Equinox]

Man, I worded that wrong. That's not intended as a knock on you, Melmond; it's just that if you're scum, you played really fucking well because you played pretty much the opposite of how you played your first scum game.

[Equinox]

Happy birthday, Melmond!

[Equinox]

Yeah, I was the other chosen townie. Was there a graveyard QuickTopic?