Micro 45 - Artemis Fowl Game Over

[Kmd4390]

vote mehdi

Scum with shos.

Not joking.

Discuss.

[Kmd4390]

Reaction to guy's post.

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, reactions to real votes are more valuable than "vote so and so for having a blue avatar". Also, laying serious votes early has kinda been my style for about three years. I rarely random vote anymore. And I fully realize that usually shifts attention towards me. I don't mind because it gets my opinions discussed.

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, post 11.

Shamrock, mostly the same although shos' vote seems kind of telling.

[Kmd4390]

unvote, vote shos

Shos, my case is a real case too.

[Kmd4390]

Your buddy gave you away and then you confirmed it when you posted.

[Kmd4390]

Mehdi

[Kmd4390]

Absta, shamrock is town.

[Kmd4390]

Because I suspect shos more than I suspect you.

[Kmd4390]

Mehdi, the vote itself, no. The timing, sure.

Prohawk, so I'm scum in this game for something I do in every game? Also, short posts happen when I play the game primarily from my phone.

In other news, I'm reading mehdi as a bit townier now.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, with the exception of shos, all of the players who have posted look pretty town to me. And by posted, I'm not including guy because all he gave was a joke vote that I didn't find telling at all.

[Kmd4390]

Mostly a gut read based on what seems to be a genuine tone in his posts. He seems to believe what he is saying as far as reads and reasons for them.

[Kmd4390]

Absta, do you mean lurking for guy's scum meta? I've seen him lynched for it as town.

Mala, no. Confirmation is mostly just when a player is online. Only exception is if scum can talk during confirmations. Even then, most don't take that opportunity.

[Kmd4390]

Ok. I missed a few pages but reading up on break at work.

I'm officially dismissing the mehdi/shos connection. Mehdi's defense of robo would normally give me the same vibes, but unless we are dealing with three scum and those are the three and mehdi is a terrible scum player, it shows that it's just a mehdi thing. The only way it's telling in any way is if mehdi flips scum in which case I'm more likely to say it was intentional and shos and robo are both town.

I can actually really buy into absta's reasoning for the robo fos.

Shit, rambled too much and didn't read enough. Sucks to do this in a micro, but I haven't read pages 5 or 6 yet for my own reference.

[Kmd4390]

Shos post 100 first paragraph looks like scum who doesn't think they are scummy. I've been in that spot before. You don't think you've done anything scummy, yet people are voting you. Its frustrating because you aren't being lynched for what you believe is scummy, yet everyone else seems to be turning against you. This kind of post usually comes when your scumbuddy jumps on you. Shos/robo anyone?

Id love people to explain the prohawkhate because I'm not getting it. He looks town to me.

Mehdi is now town. Shamrock is still town. Shos' vote on robo has me rethinking the shos/robo connection, but not enough to dismiss it. I like mehdi's theory that guy or mala is scum because I have way too many town reads on active contributing players. Other than my scum read on shos, the only other scum tells I can find are associative tells which obviously won't be pursued until we've got a scum flip. However, I lean more towards mala than guy, but that's probably because of my experience with guy. So it may as well be a flip of the coin which of them is scum.

[Kmd4390]

As of now, shos isn't the lynch for today.

Why?

Also, here's a list of who you've voted and/or called scum:
shos
Shamrock
Guy
myself
robo

That leaves you with three town reads, if not just because of process of elimination. That means at least three of the above names are town. I'd suggest looking at all five ISOs and asking yourself "Is this person town?"

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, I might be ok with a guy lynch depending on his next post. The only thing that has me hesitating is that this reminds me of a time he was mislynched, but someone said this is his scum play too, so if there's no way to tell the difference, and shos as scum with either guy or mala makes the most sense, he's not a bad lynch at all.

Here's where my reads stand by the way.

Prohawk, shamrock, mehdi are towniest.
Shos is scummiest.
Absta and robo I'm back and forth on.
Mala and guy probably is a pair that contains one scum.

[Kmd4390]

Hmm. I really don't like mala's over reaction there.

[Kmd4390]

Shos.

[Kmd4390]

I'm more interested in finding out a wagon you won't support...

[Kmd4390]

Making connections in a game with multiple scum isn't scummy.only way id be worried is if he was all like "shos is obvscum and there's a connection to mala so let's lynch mala".

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, do you even think guy is scum or are you just trying to make him talk? Id rather lynch scum than pressure a perrenial lurker into not lurking. It's like trying to teach a dog to meow.

[Kmd4390]

I personally think he could be scum. As I said before, I'm leaning towards one of him and mala as shos' buddy.

My issue, however, was with the way prohawk put that. It doesn't look like a mentality of looking for scum. It looks like just finding the best way to pressure people into posting.

Don't get me wrong. Seeing Guy start posting would be great. I just don't think it's going to happen though and I have a much stronger scum read on shos.

[Kmd4390]

Just wanna throw this out there. I love how shos is trying to make it look like he didn't post in the first ten pages. Check his ISO and see if you think that's the case. I'm only on page ten but I can't wait to see who the 1-2 scum supposedly are between myself, robo, mehdi, and shamrock.

Prohawk, I know I'm responding to something at the beginning of last page, but on Guy and lynching him day 1 of every game, that just describes a policy lynch. I don't want to policy lynch in a micro. We only have so many lynches to work with. If we lynch Guy, it's going to be because we think he's scum. What I CAN say with confidence, however, is that you (prohawk) and Guy are NOT scum TOGETHER. This is because if you are scum, you are pushing policy in a way no half decent scum would on their buddy.

Shos, I'll tell you the same thing I told prohawk regarding serious votes in my first few posts. If you want to make a case why I'm scum for something I do in every game regardless of alignment, feel free. That's just how I play the early game. Oh and nice try at painting my vote on you as process of elimination. The good points on absta and robo are throwing me off a bit though. But then you 180 on both. Interesting...

Mehdi makes a good point about shos' reads. It's all OMGUS and buddying those who thinks he's town. Like, not 100% but pretty damn close.

I agree with robo at this point. If we lynch guy and he flips scum, dumb luck. If anyone wants to make a case, I'm all ears, but we have Shosscum over here, so I don't see the point in a lurker lynch. The fact that people are jumping all over him like this makes me actually lean town on him.

I've had a town read on shamrock all game, but he gave in to robo pretty easy on that unvote.

I find prohawk's "not advocating a guy lynch but I'll leave my vote on while he is L-1 or L-2.

Did shos just claim VT with two votes on him?

[Kmd4390]

Two things since my last post. Shamrock is obvtown because what scum player would go after someone for switching their vote from them to someone else like that. And I agree with robo.

[Kmd4390]

Scum that wants to look "obvtown". Why wouldn't scum do that?

I don't see it. Usually, if scum is going for town points, it's on something more sure to stand out.

----------------

Absta's entire page 14 looks scummy as hell,

but only if shos is town

. <-Actually scratch that last part. I can see bussing here.

Actually everything after that looks like Shosbuddy. And Shos' "kill absta" looks like distancing just before death.

---------------

Mala, why would you do that? *Sigh*

[Kmd4390]

Actually, yeah, I took 377 as a confession until I read 379. Am I misunderstanding that post?

If you were to flip town, id look at the wagon and who hopped on lazily and didn't seem to think you were scum. But the whole wagon looks town, so I doubt you'll flip town.

[Kmd4390]

And yes hammer needs to happen. There is no excuse for no lynching now.

[Kmd4390]

That clears up the one post a little more but you seem too ok with dying. Looks like scum trying not to look like fighting their lynch too hard.

[Kmd4390]

I want to look over Day 1 a bit.

I'm leaning toward abstascum right now.

Mala's focusing on the NK has my attention (I can see scum saying something to the effect of "let's kill this person to set this stuff up" and mala's posts look like something that would follow that).

Would love to know the reasons for prohawk votes as well by the way. He looks town to me. I don't know what the hell chaos's vote is all about and absta is just being the same absta he's been all game with that vote.

Love how mala defends her reads as "consistent" rather than "confident" or "right" or whatever. Point is, it looks more like making sure the reads look ok than determining the accuracy of the reads.

Mala/absta team maybe?

[Kmd4390]

Links to last two town games and last two scum games. Don't include games you didn't live to Day 2.

[Kmd4390]

Mala, that's actually a fair self-meta to an extent. You clearly look at NKs as town and see it as a useful tool. And in the games you linked, you didn't seem to fake it. However, that doesn't mean you can't. That being said, it's somewhere between a null tell and a town tell. It's not nearly enough on it's own to define my read on you in this game. The focus on consistency in your own reads rather than the accuracy of your reads is still there as well as Day 1 play (which I still need to go back and read again).

vote absta

[Kmd4390]

Robo, maybe, but she has a point that the specific point I raised against her was invalid because she does it as town as her links clearly show.

[Kmd4390]

Anyone who still thinks mala is scum:
What are the chances of fakeclaiming as holly short?

The only possibility is if it's a mod provided fakeclaim (which while unlikely, isn't impossible. I was scum in harry potter mafia with dumbledore as a fakeclaim).

Other than that though, unless it's worth a sacrafice to out the real holly short, there's no way anyone would fakeclaim that because saying she isn't in the game without being told so by the Mod makes no sense.

[Kmd4390]

Shamrock, but holly short? Normally, mod provided fakeclaims are names that are interchangable with forgettable VTs and people not even in the game. Not always, but more times than not. Did the fakeclaims fit this trend in nexus's other game you are referencing?

[Kmd4390]

Robo, yeah, pretty sure we are in agreement on the mala self meta thing.

I know this is going to sound cliche, but prohawk vs chaos looks town vs town. Absta's reaction, however, doesn't look town. Neither does mala's, but holly short.

I can't help but wonder if my robo town read is just a bias because every one of his posts is something I'm already thinking. Well, almost everything.

Not sure what to make of:
"I'm hammering if you don't claim"
"Not claiming"
"I'm hammering if you don't claim"
Like. Empty threat? And almost like absta knew it was an empty threat. I don't get it.

[Kmd4390]

Shamrock, probably not.

Robo, thing is he already posted once after you said that. I'm fine with his death. Pretty sure he's scum. Otherwise, i'd have unvoted with my last post after seeing your intent to hammer.

[Kmd4390]

I can't even think of a way to possibly stretch this as being a policy lynch.

How doesn't it make sense for scum to mindlessly jump every wagon they can trying to get anybody but themselves lynched? And then not claim at L-1.

You. Are. Scum.

Die.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah prohawk starting is good with me.

[Kmd4390]

Chix verbil, VT

[Kmd4390]

And that's everyone since mala already claimed.

Mala, remind me. Why didn't you use your ability N1? Getting killed was more valuable?

Chaos, why shamrock? And why N2?

Shamrock, what did you want to say after massclaim.

Prohawk, without using the words "I'm town", why is someone more worthy of today's lynch than you?

It looks like scum got some pretty intense fakeclaims considering my character is the only one who isn't a huge deal in the first book. The one that really jumps out is cudgeon as a VT.

Actually. Chaos, what is the flavor for Root as a RB.

I think I have a slight lean towards a Prohawk/shamrock team. I can easily see a scum RB claiming town RB though so I have doubts. The big thing in Chaos's favor though is that I think scum jumped all over "let's lynch GNR for lurking". I have to look back, but I believe it was prohawk who was the worst offender of that for voting but saying he wasn't pushing the lynch or something like that (all from memory, not looking back yet, so could be wrong). If I remember right, shamrock was a big part of that as well.

I still think mala is town because the claim seems to elaborate to be fake although I realize that could be flawed logic. Mala, do you have flavor for only being able to commute N1?

Actually, mala and chaos's one shot claims kind of support each other although there is the chance of copying on chaos's part.

So yeah that's where I'm at right now. Leaning prohawk/shamrock. Open to possibility of chaos scum although I'm not leaning in that direction. Mala is my strongest town read.

I'd like everyone else's thoughts on every player as well.

[Kmd4390]

My scum reads died and flipped town. And like I said, I'm sure the wagon on GNR was scum motivated which would make that slot likely town. But to say I'm not "seriously looking" is a huge stretch when I clearly said otherwise.

[Kmd4390]

Shamrock, more often than not, the leader of such a movement is town. It's the sheep that are usually scum.

While I'm on a computer rather than phone and in a mafia playing mode, let me look over that whole thing now:
-Let's see. Mehditown votes GNR because scum is in the "useless pool" (GNR/mala)
-abstatown follows, obviously wanting a reaction.
-Then Prohawk "Reason: Lurking, handing the game over to scum." Translation: GNR is town, but he's giving scum the game, so we can blame him after we mislynch him.
-Then Shamrock. "Nobody is hammering shos until GNR posts something useful, and if he does not post something useful, then we are lynching him instead." So we lynch someone who isn't "useful" rather than someone who we think is scum.

See, it's pretty much how I remembered it. Two now known town players jumped on someone and the two I think are scum followed for reasons that DONT EVEN SHOW A SCUM READ.

But wait. We have lynching wagons too:
Shos (5-LYNCH): kmd4390,

Robocopter87

, ProHawk,

absta101, Mehdi2277

^I've been on the site for four years and have seen exactly one Day 1 mislynch that didn't contain scum on the wagon and that lynch happened on Page 1. I know myself to be town, so Prohawk is scum here. Almost 100% guaranteed.

absta101 (4-LYNCH): Shamrock, kmd4390, ProHawk, Robocopter87
^Day 2. There's Prohawk again. Although I admit this day leans more towards Chaos as a buddy with Shamrock on the wagon with Prohawk (DGB always says scum won't put all their eggs in one basket) and Chaos with his vote sitting without any danger on Prohawk. However, Prohawk's Day 1 GNR vote looks so much like scum going after town and I find that to be a stronger tell than this one.

Hell, Prohawk/mala isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Either way, this is the equation I'm seeing:
Prohawk+X=TheScumTeam

[Kmd4390]

Shamrock, a possibility? Absolutely. Maybe he saw a buddy being wagoned, panicked, and decided to bus. That's absolutely possible. It's just not the direction I'm leaning in.

Chaos, if I'm prohawk's buddy, why am I coming up with him as scum in my analysis?

[Kmd4390]

In LYLO out of nowhere?

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, do you realize how much of a stretch that is. That as scum, i'd kill robo JUST to point out the day 1 wagon that I was also on? It would be a guarantee that you would come after me, which you have.

[Kmd4390]

I'd be intentionally implicating myself.

Look at it this way. Under the basis that all Day 1 lynches include scum, killing someone off the wagon makes it 33% for each of you, robo, and myself. Once robo is dead, it's 50/50.

So either scum wasn't aware that the lynch would come up today in this context or this is a weird ass game where the entire Day 1 lynching wagon was town and they are trying to set one or both of us up.

I personally think you and your scumbuddy didn't think to look at the wagon and killed robo out of fear that he'd lead the town to a lynch on scum. And now that I look back at robo's ISO at the end of Day 2, I'm pretty sure he'd have come after you and/or chaos. So if a robo kill was an attempt to set you up, it's a pretty piss poor attempt because they could have just left robo alive and let him come after you.

[Kmd4390]

But the thing is what other living players did he mention as scummy on Day 2? Who else would have felt threatened enough to kill him? Unless you are right and you are being set up. In which case, from my PoV, it's probably shamrock/chaos because mala is probably town.

You misunderstood what I said about how i'd be implicating myself. It becomes a 50/50. No scum wants to be in a 50/50 in LYLO.

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, you can only see it as 50/50 if you are looking at the Day 1 wagon. I don't think you were before I pointed it out. Therefore, I brought it up and I made it a 50/50. That makes zero sense as scum. You don't get to use that defense because you didn't make it 50/50.

Mala, you are right that it can technically go either way, but scum typically let town do their dirty work on a day 1 mislynch.

Chaos, as I said, in LYLO out of nowhere, no.

MALA IF YOU ARE ONLINE SAVE THIS TOWN AND UNVOTE. Look at the timestamps of the last two posts. Chaos posts. Prohawk posts and votes. Chaos will come in and hammer. They are scum about to win on your vote.

[Kmd4390]

Why wouldn't he? It would be scum win.

I may have been wrong about you two orchestrating a quicklynch though because he doesn't seem to be online. Although it's still possible that that was your goal with the vote and he went offline not realizing it.

[Kmd4390]

vote prohawk

by the way.

If you are town, scum will jump on me anyway. If you are scum, the other two town players need to act fast and vote you or scum will win.

*sigh*

[Kmd4390]

So shamrock didn't hammer. If he was scum, he could have won the game with a hammer. That makes him confirmed town (unless you believe it's me and him as scum). So unless mala has me fooled, the scum team is prohawk/chaos. Because of this, I will support a lynch on either one of them.

[Kmd4390]

unvote, vote chaos

Maybe we can get prohawk to bus?

[Kmd4390]

I think it's a decision for shamrock and mala to make together. You, chaos, and myself know what the scum team is. This is true from all points of view if I'm not forgetting anything (unless mala is scum in which case very well played because I'm not really taking that as a possibility at the point and I don't think anyone else is either).

[Kmd4390]

Smeckledorfed? Is that a word?

[Kmd4390]

Wow should've known it was a spongebob reference.

By the way.

Angelnine Fowl. Survivor. Almost had it...

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, complete coincidence. I didn't look at vote counts until day start. I made the case that I would have made as town.

Shos, the flavor thing on you was that it appeared to contradict which would imply that it was made up. Had it been a true contradiction, one of you would have to be scum. I should have used it against Prohawk, but I forgot about it after your lynch.