Micro 616 : To Love And To Be Loved! (Game Over!?)

[Almost50]

/confirm

I love you all

[Almost50]

VOTE: Almost50
Almost 50 and still hasn't given up on love!
How amicably naive!

I'm still young at heart though

VOTE: Masquerade

Let me in or I'll take you out!

[Almost50]

Love Maru

All the good ones are taken, so I'm afraid you're stuck with me.

[Almost50]

Tbh the way things are if one of you dies you all die

Wth did yiu do

the way it works is if one is LYNCHED or NIGHT KILLED they "may" choose one of their lovers to "suicide" with them. Th suicide does not count towards the lynch/NK so the one who committed suicide canNOT take someone else with them.

OK

Love Fire Assassin

Obviously the only available option for me now.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

I do this in every micro you just happened to be the leading wagon....

Sorrryyy

So you explicitly requested OTHERS to put her @ L-1 for you to unvote??

OK, I'll bite: What exactly was your intention and what did you get from it? (Who would comply? Her reaction? What??)

[Almost50]

I want to say "You're weird!" (but in the nicest and most respectable you can possibly perceive that phrase). I think I'll give you a slight town read for that response. It strikes me as "moat natural/genuine".

[Almost50]

@Fire

I'm confused! Are you talking to FIRE or are you calling on ME (baka)

P.S. If you don't get it, talk to Frozen. (Also check my signature)

[Almost50]

I hate my love got redirected, now I'm stuck with a negligent lover

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwb9-OlQimc

(I give up on the youtube tags)

[Almost50]

Two redirectors in a mini, something had to be up.

I'll let the "want to love scum" vs. "calculated move" go. I'll also leave the "I didn't want to out my ability" vs actually claiming it in public (for no good reason) alone for now.

But I do have a question regarding the quoted phrase in particular. Why would you think 2, 3 or even 4 redirectors "too much"? Why can't we all be? I don't see a cap limit put in the rules to any of the 4 modifiers, so I'm assuming the only -logical- limit is the number of players in the game (i.e. 0-7 guardians and 0-9 of any of the other 3).

I'm not necessarily scum reading you by now. In fact, I'm questioning your whole logic process, as I think you -probably- might not have read the rules and are basing your play on false assumptions (like, "what are the chances of a Tracker and a Watcher in a normal game" might be valid, but not in a Greatest Mafia Idea as it could easily be the case.)

[Almost50]

the plan changed when there was a second redirector

OK, hypothetically speaking: What effect to your plan would be to have a 3rd redirector in play? (I'd say 3rd OR MORE, but given we only outed 2 I don't want to extend my assumptions into "too hypothetical" areas).

Let's consider the facts:

1- Only ONE redirector is confirmed.
2- It is unlikely for someone to false claim redirector because they will be caught in a lie eventually.
3- We have at least two confirmed NOT to hve that modifier on (I don't know how it would work if the redirected love landed on another redirector (like if RJ was targeted and then the random target happened to be Suzune..) so I'm saying I'm fairly confident Shiro isn't a redirector but I'm not 100%)

Please note that the redirection itself is not an indication of anything though, so my approach here would be purely from a probability point of view.

Now, does a third redirector indicate one of them must be scum??

[Almost50]

VOTE: Beeboy

This is one weird vote tbh, considering beeboy is the ONLY town lean for me thus far!!

Also, I'm of the opinion the redirector modifier is overrated. Yes, they can willingly pick their own partners and cannot be forced into a relationship they don't want, but really.. consider this: We KNOW we don't have a Cop/tracker/watcher/Jailer .. etc. What we do "possibly" have is a bodyguard, and seeing as the redirector is confirmable (i.e. cannot be hidden for long) I suggest they are prime targets for the NKs to begin with.

I honestly think Lovely is a stronger modifier, followed by Adorable, with Redirector coming up 3rd and Guardian being least favourable.

Now should I or shouldn't I vote FA? (The player, not the mod)
I don't think Masquerade has done anything scummy thus far, and I don't like my vote on her as it is. I'm just weighing my options, and right now I'm torn between FA & Suzune to be honest. Nothing "conclusive" about either of them though, hence my dilemma.

[Almost50]

Almost, I do not mean to sound sharp but, do you have any opinions about the game because most of your posts have been game theory and set up posts. So I am curious your outlook on the game itself and the people playing it.

VOTE: Beeboy

This is one weird vote tbh, considering

beeboy is the ONLY town lean for me

thus far!!

Also, I'm of the opinion the redirector modifier is overrated. Yes, they can willingly pick their own partners and cannot be forced into a relationship they don't want, but really.. consider this: We KNOW we don't have a Cop/tracker/watcher/Jailer .. etc. What we do "possibly" have is a bodyguard, and seeing as the redirector is confirmable (i.e. cannot be hidden for long) I suggest they are prime targets for the NKs to begin with.

I honestly think Lovely is a stronger modifier, followed by Adorable, with Redirector coming up 3rd and Guardian being least favourable.

Now should I or shouldn't I vote FA? (The player, not the mod)

I don't think Masquerade has done anything scummy thus far

, and I don't like my vote on her as it is. I'm just weighing my options, and

right now I'm torn between FA & Suzune

to be honest. Nothing "conclusive" about either of them though, hence my dilemma.

Come again?

[Almost50]

Not yet. Nobody did much for me to get solid reads on them, and -considering we're only 2.5 days and just 9 pages into the game - I think having reads on 4 of the other 8 players is good enough.

I'm watching the vote movements closely though.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Shiro

Not dealing with this. them or me today.

Jeanne can do what she wants. I'm not posting in this game until we're at L-5 and everyone has left us the fuck alone.

This is not good It is still NAI, but if RC isn't playing the town has lost 50% of our day powers.

[Almost50]

I'm lazy and the logic being used to defend suzune is so appalling that my will to post is sapped.

VOTE: Radiant Jeanne

Geez! You've just put them @L-2. I hope you all realize we're long out of the RSV phase, so dwell on arguments before you pile up on a single wagon.

My read on the RJ slot is still null, and I'm counting on Jeanne to give me some clues.

[Almost50]

Almost, what's the inconclusive stuff you have on Fire and Suzune?

The case on Suzune you mostly understand, and it's not compelling. There's also the bit of her trying to force the idea that if there are multiple redirectors one must be scum (or at least the probability is high one is scum) and I'm not seeing it like that at all.

Shiro simply voted beeboy and I didn't like that vote. beeboy is obv!town to me. End of. That also is inconclusive evidence, but that's all I've got for now. I just want to upgrade my vote from an RSV one to a serious one, albeit on weak sauce I'd have to admit.

[Almost50]

First off, I believe RC to be a HE, Jeanne to be a SHE, and the hydra to be an IT!

are you fucking kidding me? So because she's acted like a two year old as town before, her acting like a two year old is therefore accepted town behavior from her, and we should not hold her accountable for her own actions? No.

This is what I'm trying to say. I know RC, and by that I mean I know he's well capable of appearing totally scummy when he's town and vise versa. There's always a motive to it too (although I'm not sure what that could be in a semi-open setup, but .. oh, well!)

You lynch her.

Bad move. RC is a VERY PRECIOUS asset to town if he is town. If he is scum though, he will probably not only escape the lynch, but will make you look bad enough the town will lynch you with no remorse.

If you're town, the best way to deal with RC is let him have his own way on D1 and THEN see what happens. Of the 9 players list I don't see anyone of more priority as a NK that RC if her is town. In other words, Town!RC would most definitely be dead by D2, so why not just give him his space to try and help the town on D1, and lynch him if he's still alive on D3 (yes, I did say D3 bc mafia may skip killing him on N1 if they know he's be lynched on D2, but if we get to D3 and he's alive AND hasn't caught scum yet then he most definitely is scum himself).

Note: Watch me put my foot in my mouth. Scum!RC is well known to bus relentlessly as well, so .. *Shrug*

OK, I'll be back when I actually know what I'm talking about. Sleep deprivation is one of my worst enemies.

[Almost50]

Well, here is the angry head.

VOTE: Suzune

And from angry head's experience, there is no way two of the same roles could both be town, so Suzune must be scum.

- Maou Sadao

Obviously you haven't been paying attention to anything I said. ISO me now, please.

[Almost50]

@Maru:

Oh.. checking your join date I was under the assumption you must've played with RC before, but I probably jumped to conclusions too fast.

RC will try to force a lynch on his scum read in any possible way he can. He also will try to push someone he's null reading to get a reaction. Finally he'd lead a wagon on a TOWN read to catch opportunistic scum.

Now he can tell the difference is something I honestly don't know, but I do know it works more often than not. So, if you see him pushing someone relentlessly just act normal according to your own reads on the target. Vote with him if you do scum read the target, or stay off the wagon if you town read the target. people who don't know RC might indeed get irritated by the way he plays, but then it's irritating to both town and scum and the latter are the ones who actually crack under much pressure, so -in a way- it's beneficial for us to watch and observe how things go.

[Almost50]

Shiro simply voted beeboy and I didn't like that vote. beeboy is obv!town to me. End of

Ooook, I am not voting beeboy though

OMG.. OMG!! That's MY BAD!

I was responding to Masquerade's 229 and I clearly meant to type FIRE ASSASSIN. I don't even know where your name jumped into my post from, as I've never scum read you (nor town read you for all that it's worth).

Apologies, my friend. It was FA who voted beeboy and it was FA I got the bad vibes from for it.

[Almost50]

Why are you telling someone who you shouldn't know the alignment of how to respond to RC?

does it REALLY matter in this particular case (i.e. in the case it IS RC?)

[Almost50]

Obviously you haven't seen this game

Not sure what relevance that game has on THIS one. Did you ISO me? If not, please do.

[Almost50]

I don't buy the case that one of them has to scum as this isn't a closed setup.
I think it is incredibly likely for the same role to appear more than once.

I share your views here, but not on the first line. However, IF I do end up voting Suzune, it certainly won't be bc of the duplicate roles.

@RC:

I wish I could slap you for forcing me to do this now. I was contemplating on the idea that it might be good for town to have ONE of us in the hides. YES.. I AM a $$#%ing redirector myself. Now tell me there can't be two OR MORE identical roles of the same alignment. One of us is town, the other is scum, and the third is what? A drag queen??!!

^^ THIS is why I asked what if there were 3 or 4 redirectors. I was crumbing my role for someone "as good as you are" to pick it up. And that's how I'm DEAD CERTAIN there CAN be AT LEAST of the same role in the setup.

Now lynch Suzune.. and she "might" flip scum. SO? Does that confirm you/me??? What if she flips TOWN? Does that mean that I'm colour blind and can't read? Or do we take it to be a scum claim by you??? Sure.. the probability of it was low prior to the RANDOM DRAW, but meh.. that's probability for you. The unexpected (low probability) came true. *Sigh*

Now can we please get back to SCUM hunting?? Thank you.

[Almost50]

Just so you know the more you roleclaim the less likely our bullet proof god role will be useful...

Well, I tried to keep it undercover, but RC insisted on what I knew was a faulty logic based on a false assumption, so I had to put an end to it before it dominated the thread. You and I both know how strong RC pushes can be, and if he's going on the wrong direction he WOULD have been lynched on D2 based on his own logic.

In fact, his stupid push on Suzune makes me read him as town. If he was scum he would have never put it the way he did. Well, I guess that was the "good" side of it all.

[Almost50]

*in low voice* You slapped a fish.....you punched it......why did you hit it? *pause* a third party maybe....?

like, the game is officially and publicly announced to be a 7 vs 2 scenario with no 3P involved!!!

[Almost50]

p-edit why would anyone read another game? This is something I will never understand. Never. All you meta users, I just do not get it.

My own meta (one of the few things I'm aware of) is that I tend to over analyze the game at times, and sometimes use theory to try to break the setup. That usually makes me look scummy to some, but for those who have played with me more than once they know it's NAI as it's a trait of my personality.

That is one example of meta -while not conclusive- is a good reference to understand where someone is coming from.

Then again, I didn't even town read RC based on his meta, but rather based on his (sick) push on you. He was assuming you must be scum bc "no two identical roles could be of the same alignment". Now if he is scum and he knows you're town; lynching you on D1 yields an automatic lynch om his slot on D2, and that's using the same logic he did. HOW is that beneficial to scum!RC?? Unless -of course- you happen to be his scum buddy and he's doing a stunt in hopes to get overly town read by most, but then again that's not wise to do on D1 with a 2-members scum team.

What I'm proposing (or rather WAS proposing, as I had a null read on that slot back then) was to let them be for now. Town!RC IS a prime night kill target for scum. So, even if we don't follow through, if that slot is NK'd on N1 we can get some reads from their "short" ISO. If they are not NK'd and we see no good reason for it then he IS scum.

[Almost50]

Hey Almost50 you kind of old fuck.

What's your read on Fire Assassin and why?

Should I use "I already said why twice, so if you can't be bothered to read .. blah blah"???

Well, I'm not. I scum read FA bc he voted (and still is voting) my strongest town read (at the time); namely: beeboy.

Right now I think both you and beeboy are obv!town, but I'm confused about the other 6. If I can't make my own mind up I'm likely to vote whomever both you and beeboy agree on (and preferably Aris agrees on too, although I can't call Aris obv!town myself).

[Almost50]

I think it's a simple misunderstanding. According to the rules (and as proven by my case) the love shot does NOT get used up if I target someone who is already taken that day. HOWEVER, as 8 were already taken and RJ was left out; their love shot has been wasted as love shots do NOT get carried out to the next day phase (i.e. they will only have one love shot on D2, not two shots).

[Almost50]

I don't see how any of this matters.

I feel you, which is -once again- why I intervened in an attempt to conclude a fruitless conversation leading us nowhere.

I'm finding it a bit hard to get something juicy to sink my teeth into. It seems most people are happy floating around, and the one serious push (regardless of it being the right/wrong one) was made by RC, so that's one more town point there.

This is where I am right now:

Obv!Town: beeboy, RJ
Likely Town: Aris
Town Lean: Masquerade
Null: Shiro, Maru
Scum Lean: Suzune, FA
Likely Scum: -
Obv!Scum: -

So, why not vote one of my two weak scum reads you might ask? Because I cannot see a link between the two at all. This is a Micro and we know there are only 2 scum, so I'm trying to peg one and pin a couple as possible associates, and I cannot see much association between these two and eachother not with either of them and any other player that a flip would help me confirm.

[Almost50]

Show me where Suzune scum read RJ for that particular reason and I'll rescind my scum lean on her immediately. From what I remember she defended herself by arguing they both could be town, but I could've missed a post or a phrase within a post. I'll ISO Suzune to be absolutely sure.

[Almost50]

Oh, ok. Post 72 seems to hint she does believe 2 of the same role and alignment is unlikely. It totally escaped me though bc it was still semi RVS. Starting 110 she starts arguing they BOTH can co-exist, so that is the stance I thought her to be taking.

OK then. Suzune is back to null (there are other issues as you maybe aware, so I was not actually scum reading her for that anyway, but this early argument could work for her, although she didn't press that point enough and reverted to defense later on).

[Almost50]

Well that solves half my problem.

VOTE: Fire Assassin

Remains the other half: Who is more likely to be scum with FA should he flip scum?

[Almost50]

By PoE it should be either Shiro or Maruchan for me if FA flips red. I couldn't see a link between him and Suzune, so eventhough she is null along with Shiro/Maru; FA flipping scum takes her up the list.

[Almost50]

We need to test Suzune and Almsot50's claims of their redirect tomorrow just fyi.

Yeah, you're welcome to test it, but preferably NOT by Masquerade, as I wanted to love her (unless she objects).

So, make your plans for someone to target me early enough and hopefully their redirection will hit someone other than Masquerade and then I will target her.

[Almost50]

if all three check out I was hypothesize that literally every player in the game has a role modifier

Actually, I was under that this sis the case from the start. Now that I reread how it's done and seeing as "some" players may have so & so I stand corrected. Still, I think "the vast majority" if not "all" of us do have modifiers (What are the chances of 3 landing the same modifier and then 3-4 others land none)?

[Almost50]

Why is a disagreement in reads scum-indicative? And how come it makes Fire scum, and not me?

Are you voting beeboy?? I'm working under the assumption you only voted Suzune and it was RVS, then unvoted and never voted anyone again. At least that's what I have in my notes, and I'm too lazy to actually ISO anyone now, so I'll just check the next VC.

[Almost50]

If Fire Assassin flips scum I want Almost50 instadead.

I'm trying to keep myself quiet about this and let you have your space and all, but I'm amazed at how you came this conclusion? Is it bc I'm pushing/voting FA or is it bc I town read you, or.. what?? Just curious though, so feel free not to explain if you think it best for the game proceedings.

[Almost50]

What does that mean?

I am gonna be autodead tonight and I don't want to risk a mislynch D1 when I'm not 100% confident and I feel like my other scumreads (Suzune, Aristophanes especially) are being widely townread.

I think I'd deserve an Oscar if I ever figured how you mind operates. Like, at the top of the page you sounded convinced you got both scum figured. 17 minutes later you unvote FA for some reason (speed wagon?).

Now you're throwing in two OTHER suspects. There are only 2 scum to begin with and you're scum reading FOUR already?? Also, where does the Aris scum read come for, as I have him at 2nd tier. Care to explain? I'm not gonna argue Suzune as I know where you're coming from there (at least I think i do. there's nothing 100 with RC), but why Aris?

[Almost50]

Almost, Masq, you're here. Who are you scumreading?

Tbh, I am lost by by now. I'd still lynch FA but I have no real confidence 9not as strong as I did before I read the last page). RC is acting up and throwing shade on half the players list. I had a solid town read on that slot, but I think I need not be too confident in that either, simply bc "Welp, this is RC".

Suzune, Shiro & Jason are null reads for me, but it worries me that FA agrees on 2 of them. (Actually, says he has scum reads on them).

OK.. updated read list:

beeboy: I haven't seen ANYTHING scummy or confusing from him thus far. I know beeboy's scum game to some extent, so I think I would be able to pick up "something" if he was, and I'm not.

Arsi: My own town read on him is only strengthened by booboy's read on him.

RJ: Still town reading the slot, but I'm not in full comprehension of any of their logic thus far (no big surprise, but still doesn't preach confidence).

Masquerade: Leaning town, but need to work on it to be sure. She has not done anything scummy in particular, but is making an easy approach to the game (which is probably why I'm town reading her. I've seen her once as scum and once as town before, and I think this looks more like her town game).

Not lynching inside these four. Anyone else? CONVINCE ME. I'd like to see a case that I can review and evaluate before I decide if I should vote the target.

P.S. I don't know Shiro well, and I have never played with Jason (nor his predecessor). I know FA and I know Suzune and I'm getting mixed vibes from each of them, but the one thing I'm like 90% sure of is they can't be scum together, so if one flips red the other is clear in my view.

[Almost50]

Note:

I've seen beeboy's scum game twice, and the last of them we were scum partners, so that's why I have the highest confidence in this read.

[Almost50]

Well, I didn't say I feel "strongly" about Masquerade, but she's leaning town based on me having seen her as both alignments before.

As for the nulls, Suzune became null bc of the argument she made early at RVS. The other two nulls are both conditional AND PoE. I guess I could do another ISO for each, but I doubt I'll fund much.

FA I'm genuinely scureading, but I'm never good at making convincing cases, nor am I good in making strong pushes (even w/o a case like soe other players who happen to present in this game can..) *Cough .. Cough*

OK.. let me ISO Shiro & Maru

[Almost50]

OK, Shiro insinuated in pre-game that she would be interested in loving FA. However, once the game officially kicked off she voted him instead (RVS, so NAI on it's own) and asked Suzune to love her.. I COULD be reading too much into this, but -on the other hand- it may have been meant to give an impression of a "no link" between them (i.e. distancing) in pre-game.

Then one could look at it from a different perspective: FA is town and SUZUNE is Shiro's partner, and Shiro knew Suzune was a redirector so asked her to initiate the love rather than send it herself, so as to provide her partner with cover. I don't know how this works though now that Suzune has outed herself.

NOTE: For 1 to be true; 2 has to be false, and vise versa. In both scenarios though Shiro would be scum, while ONLY ONE of FA/Suzune is scum.

In post #64 though, Shiro displays what feels like genuine ignorance towards the mechanics of the setup. If my feel is right, then she isn't actually scum at all, as I think scum would pay more attention and/or ask the mod beforehand.

In #94 she admits to not having read the rules. That's town ignorance in my book. After that she averts to defending Suzune's logic with some passion (OK, you can now go back and insert a link to scenario #2), and after some back and forth she ends up voting RJ, and promotes the wagon with some sort of assertion they will flip scum (I cannot be confident in ANYONE flipping scum right now, so it sounded a bit off). Then she invites FA (specifically FA) to vote with her too, which now makes scenario #1 less likely, and looks more like linking to town.

That's all I got from her mere 18 posts. So, she could be scum with FA (possibility growing weaker), scum with Suzune (nothing conclusive or even remotely strong though), or she could be town shooting blanks in all directions. That's NULL to me.

Maru ISO:

He only joined the game later, as it took him almost 40 hours between the confrim post and their first game post, and that was meant to be a prodge, but they he did engage immediately afterwards, so .. meh.

The next post (#164) he expresses the same faulty logic RC had used (2 same role = opposite alignments) and openly supported the lynch of one. I was (still am) leaning towards Suzune being the scummier of the two, so I was linking Maru with her. Realistically though, he should/could be linked with either just as much as the other if they were both at the same level of scumminess, so there's that. It also didn't help my read that they called Aris "logical" explanation/argument "buddying" in the same post. ("logical" is MY take on it). I knew Aris was spot on bc I knew I was a 3rd redirector in the same game myself, so I probably developed negative feelings towards Maru based on that post.

#165 explains why it took him sometime to come back, so that's out the window now, but he also defends Suzune (again: I was suspicious of Suzune already, so everyone who defended her I would slightly suspect by default, but having that added to the call of lynching one of the two = implicitly advocating for the lynch of the RJ slot. Or am I making too much out of it?).

Let me try to rephrase: "doubting" Suzune to be scum based on her logic is fine. Getting a town read on her and -thus- a scum read on RJ for it was a bit too much.

#226 I didn't like much either, but he actually voted RJ next. (Yeah, I'm being consistent with myself.. yaaay!) *Pats himself on the shoulder*

So, I guess I could say I'm suspicious of the 3 who voted my 2 town reads at the time. Then the whole fiasco of getting angry and leaving.

OK.. Maru definitely looks worse than Shiro upon my reread. Gun to my head I would probably lynch there first, but I want to give Jason the chance to redeem the slot in case it was bad play by Maru who apparently wasn't on his best mood.

Let's remember one thing: This is a mini, and 2 mislynched could very much cost us the game. I would rather have a greater chance of success on D1, and if not then at least a lynch that would yield enough info to either clear a couple to a semi-confirmed status or limit the lynch pool to 3 people at max. I've already limited my own pool to 4, but that's just me.

[Almost50]

Yea I mean. You are missing the story. Me and fire were lovers in another game but he betrayed me and wanted to love Suzu.

I was devastated, utterly crushed. This betrayal struck my heart like a cold knife. So I opted to ask his to be partner to instead be with me, so I can have my revenge.

I like you as town almost.

OK.. I guess. But I didn't/don't have a crystal ball to know that story beforehand. You could've explained some in pre-game so I would know where you're coming from.

[Almost50]

Jason, why shouldn't we lynch you after Maru's play?

This is a terrible question and you should feel bad, and as an aside, i didn't read any of his posts, i auto skipped them.

Actually given all of what i just read.

VOTE: Aristophanes

That's one weird vote, and the reasoning isn't exactly self-explanatory. "given all of what i just read" .. which is??

Also, I said I automatically scum read those who vote my strongest town reads, and I also said I'm inclined to lynch you but want to give you the chance to remedy the situation, and you respond with a vote on -now- my 2nd top town read??? It's as if you're daring me to vote you. Are you?

[Almost50]

Congratulations! You're not totally blind. I'm afraid you still need glasses to help you read the main point, which -incidentally- happened to be typed in the FIRST LINE (just above the 3 lines you quoted).

P.S. Scum points for trying to look like you're scum hunting but failing to provide an explanation on your vote still.

[Almost50]

beeboy: I haven't seen ANYTHING scummy or confusing from him thus far. I know beeboy's scum game to some extent, so I think I would be able to pick up "something" if he was, and I'm not.

You are like a broken record with "I don't see anything scummy with him" that is not a town read. You described a null read at best.

I explained that in the very following post as I did see where this could be misinterpreted. I was beeboy's scum partner in a large themed game we played most recently. I spent days and days together with him both in the main thread and in our PT thread. I should know if his play resembles ANY of his scum play characteristics, and it simply doesn't.

You -on the other hand- are a bit hard to read for me. You have different styles and I'm not quite sure if this "well composed" tone of yours resembles your town game or your scum game more accurately. You're not giving much to play with either way.

OK.. we still have time, so I may come back to this, but I want Jason sorted out sooner than later.

VOTE: Jason

Let's see where this goes.

Reminder to all: We don't have any investigatives, so it's through discussion that we get ALL of our info. For those who have PTs; please try to sort your lover sooner than later and with some confidence. (Which reminds me: Is there anything AT ALL we need to talk about in private, Fire? Like, if you've got reads you don't want to share for now or specific reasons/expectations to scum read someone.. or if you can foresee someone doing so & so if they're of a given alignment, so I may see what you're talking about when they actually do as you say.... just be more active in the lovers PT is all I ask of you).

[Almost50]

I 100% want to avoid metaing this.

Avoid what?? I don't think that's possible, especially in a game where we do not have any investigative roles at all. OK, maybe you know better .. so I'll rephrase that to "it's not possible for ME". I AM using meta to read the players I have played with before.

[Almost50]

RC, PLEASE.. make up your mind. We both know you're the PERFECT NK if you're town indeed. (I won't go into details, but I'm dead certain you know why that is). So, this day is ALL you have to give us all the help you can, and your not doing a great job thus far.

I want some clear steps, like if X then Y (like you initially did with the FA is scum them Almost is his partner, despite the fact you're definitely wrong about me ans "maybe" about FA too, which I will explain in a bit). So, "Aris maybe scum with just about anyone" doesn't help much. EVEN if Aris flips scum (and I maintain that he most probably would not) we still wouldn't know where to go next, and you won't be able to add anything new (unless you can talk to us from the grave, which isn't the case in this game).

Why my read has been changing about FA:

Remember Soccer Spirits? (Also, beeboy, please pay attention). FB was TOWN (so no reason for him to lie about anything not specifically related to that particular game). Well HE pointed out a scum trait of his, which is when he is scum he tends to do ISOs.

Now I scum read him here for his vote on beeboy, and I further scum read him because of the semi-lurking play. However, I had expected him to come back with some ISOing to redirect the pressure to someone else. He didn't. He merely defended himself and started getting back at you but provided not a single ISO to prove any of his reads. That's town!FB according to his own admission (unless you think he had foreseen playing with you, me, and beeboy in this game, and had predicted he would land a scum role in it, so he laid his defense in advance in another game that had ended long before this one even had the roles drawn to it). You feelin' me?

I'm not conclusively town reading FA though. I'm merely stating that he is not living up to his scum play meta.

Now let's talk about me. You've riding my back too long now, and I think I want a clear cut response: WHAT have I done that seems so scummy to you?

I've tried to ISO myself to find out where I might've given you the wrong impression, but I failed. I'm a redirector. Now, let's -for a minute, and for the sake of argument- assume that I'm indeed Mafia. How come I came on and posted without even trying to tie myself up with someone first to hide my role? I gave everybody the chance to pick me before I targeted the ONLY ONE left for me to bond with (by that time you where outed as a redirector, so it didn't really matter which of you I go for).

OK.. I tried to hide it, or I didn't think ahead (I can accept either for the skae of argument). Now why would I point out the faulty logic you were using? You were going to lynch Suzune, and if she's town and I'm scum it works for me. Then you die at night and all is well for scum!me.

Or maybe Suzune IS my scum partner, in which case it would be dumber than dumb for us both to claim redirectors, wouldn't it?

Also from ISOing myself I find that I had flirted with Masquerade; setting her up to be my love target tomorrow already. Now take into account Frozen's timezone suits ME over most of you, so I could have been on early in the morning and loved Masquerade as soon as FA unlocked the thread, and nobody would have suspected me, and I would have gone TWO full days w/o outing my role. I don't see scum!me claiming on D1 for ABSOLUTELY NO BENEFIT to "scum".

Then the one I've been pushing is FA, whom you claim might be my partner. Well, again: I do NOT bus my partners. The more the merrier, and I hate to be the lone scum standing (my first game on the site was an exception as he had already tied the ropes around his neck, so I jumped the wagon, but I certainly didn't start it nor did I push it hard, besides it ended in my loss, so why would I do the same stupid mistake twice?)

I don't know what else I'm supposed to say, and I'm already half asleep anyway, but I beg of you to try and leave some solid reads before the end of this day phase that may point me/us as to where to go next.

P.S. Darn it! Now I've got TWO nightmares, namely RC & Ranger (the latter starts by putting me in her scum pile in each and ever game, and I have yet to draw scum ONCE in a game with her). At least RC HAS seen my scum play before, so I'm really intrigued as to how he compares my play here to it. *Shrug*

P-edit:

@Aris:

What is your read on Jason? And how confident are you in that read?

[Almost50]

I can understand protecting RC from my logic about the same modifier.

Excuse me?!! I wasn't defending HIM against YOU, but rather defending YOU against his faulty logic. You & I both know well RC doesn't need my protection/defense. Have you been reading and comprehending what I was saying??

[Almost50]

Is anyone playing this game? I maybe busy, but the thread is open and I can read and respond if there's something for me to comment on.

[Almost50]

Is anyone playing this game? I maybe busy, but the thread is open and I can read and respond if there's something for me to comment on.

What are your thoughts on Ari as of late?

Nothing happened to change my town read on him, actually.

The problem of this game is everybody is "towning up", so to speak. I know for a fact we have 2 scum (it's in the setup), but I can neither STRONGLY scum read anyone, nor can I come up with a scum read "duo".

Where is Blackstar when you need him. Or Kain Tepes for that matter. I scum read them both by default, so this could've helped!

[Almost50]

@Jason:

Make a case on someone "less townie" and I'll consider moving my vote if I'm convinced. Right now I'm the only one voting you, so even if I'm not sure my vote is in the right place I have no reason to think I urgently need to switch my vote, and besides I have no definite target to switch it to. (I hope I'm making sense. If not, tell me and I'll try to rephrase my thoughts).

[Almost50]

@FA: I will be away from home for most of tomorrow (Tuesday, 7th) and I've been busy all day today as well.

To all: I will not be "totally" absent (at least I hope so), but if I am then you know in advance.

[Almost50]

So, we're settled on lynching Fire, I presume? If so, how do Jason & Suzune in particular feel about it?

P.S. Consider this an intent to hammer if nobody objects to it.

P-edit: Ok.. I'll wait for Aris to finish his ISOs and give me the signal.

[Almost50]

Maybe Radiant would be a better lynch because of no suicide and obviously they won't be N1 kill.

Sorry it took me longer than expected to come back. It's the fasting month of Ramadan and I'm a heavy smoker, so I sleep most of the day and try to stay off anything that requires me working my mind until sunset. It's only 8 hours between sunset and dawn, and it usually comes down to some social obligations (visiting or being visited) during those hours.

Anyway, I'm all caught up, and the quoted I have reason to strongly oppose. I will explain if what I predict to happen does happen, but for now I would not count on having RC with us on D2.

[Almost50]

How can I still be null?

To me you're almost null too (just a shred of a tiny town read). It is mainly bc you've been hopping on many players with your vote. By now you've suspected/voted beeboy, Aris, FA and now suggesting RC.

On another note, RC doesn't usually go that quiet I concede, but then where is Jeanne to begin with?? I wanted her to do a bit more of talking, as she is much easier to read than him!

[Almost50]

I'll vote Fire if it comes to it.

Considering it's you or Fire, i'd say you should probably change it, it doesn't look like a flash wagon is starting on me any time soon.

Considering 2 votes are on you and 2 are on Fire I don't see why you're assuming it's between Aris and FA only.

Yo, guys.. I think we're all being too stubborn (as well as lacking in effort). It is now each one trying to force their own reads on the others. I suggest we all reread as if the game had just started (or as if one had just subbed in into their own slot) and do an UNBIASED reread. Maybe that will help us get better reads and some mutual understanding.

Otherwise, one mislynch coupled with a suicide and a night kill and we're already on the way to lose the game. The driver of the mislynch (if town) could be the target of the next day lynch for it, and then we have another NK and we've lost the game.

[Almost50]

Yeah, okay.
VOTE: Fire Assassin
L-1.

OK.. you can NOW disregard my previous remark.

[Almost50]

Well, I'm not liking either of the two major wagons. Aris is easy to explain, bc I do sincerely and genuinely town read him.

FA on the other hand I'm not too sure of but I have two things that ping me hard AGAINST his lynch:

1- The fact he did no ISOs at all, when it's a scum tell of his to do them.
2- The hard push by RC on him, when he put me as the other scum. As I know RC is wrong about me I don't trust his read on FA either, and RC has been "Welp! I'm RC" for most of the game (i.e. not providing much reasoning for anything).

My lynch pool was (and still is) between the four of Suzune, FA, Shiro & Jason. However, I've stated why I don't like the FA lynch, and I have come to like more the Suzune/Jason (eiether of them) bc they're both on Aris whom I just can't see as scum at all. The beeboy/Aris duo is TOWN-ALL-TOWN. I town read each of them separately, and I have just been scum with beeboy recently so I know not only how he thinks as scum, but I know he would have caught Aris if he was scum too. I can't explain it any other way, but if I'm town reading EACH of them separately, and then they both confirm my read on each other then either they are both town or I'm a jerk! (And I'd rather think the former!!)

[Almost50]

Ummm I think Ari is null and you put too much faith in me >_>

Come again? are you telling me you're not sure of Aris' alignment still??

[Almost50]

Preach it Almost50!
(@ the larger post)

Just come back to voting Jason with me, and beeboy might still join us. Wait! Where IS Shiro?? It seems to me that I wasn't the only one who disappeared!!

Where Shiro decides to vote is of much importance, not only for the decision of the lynch, but also for the reference to get back to that later on.

[Almost50]

@beeboy & Aris:

Stop it, you two. I've decided that you're both are town (said in an affirmative RC tone)

Now let's do one more round of negotiations (Geez.. where's Ban Ki-moon when you need him to "express concern" and then do nothing!).

[Almost50]

You're vote tag looks funny [/jason]???

Shiro's vote will decide which of the prime 3 candidates goes to lynch, and then depending on the flip it may decide on Shiro's own alignment.

[Almost50]

You do need to sleep it appears, Aris!

[Almost50]

?? How does it point at me? IMHO it was such a weird choice for a NK. OK.. since RJ/Dunn is still alive and we're at the start of the day I'll now explain why I thought that would be the perfect kill: They were NOT BP (they claimed redirector) and they were not loved (so no BG either). It was the one and only kill guaranteed to go through and hit the intended target. I guess lynching Jason freed Masquerade too as she wasn't loved by anyone either, but she still could've been a BP (Lovely), so the killer took some risk there.

My one and only deduction from that kill is it is very unlikely that the mafia duo are currently loved by eachother. If they were they would not have cared much who they would kill regardless bc the suicide (if forced) would have taken another townie.

So.. Aris+beeboy cannot be scum together, Almost+FA cannot be scum together and Shiro+Suzune cannot be scum together. Also at least one of these duets is a town-town relationship.

I had -also- thought the slot of Dunn (while occupied by RJ) would be a top suspect if they did live through the night, but I no longer have that feeling mainly for 2 reasons:

1- With all due respect; RC is no longer the player occupying the slot (Dunn may as well be a great player, but I -personally- would always be wary of RC).
2- They're not loved, so if the were scum there's only one of the above-mentioned 3 couples that contains scum, and they had 2 options (4 players) to chose from for the NK in hopes they'd suicide their partner as well.

I do realize it could get quite WIFOMy and everything I said could be countered with WIFOM, but that's just where I am right now until further notice.

I'll wait for someone to target me so I can prove I'm a redirector, then will target someone myself. I won't declare whom I'd want to love for now.

[Almost50]

Wait A50 is a redirector...?

So we have three town redirectors? Nope, one of suzune/a50 scum.

Same old SICK logic that I've been preaching against all game. If I was scum I had NO REASON to out myself as a redirector to begin with. The D1 action went overly smooth for me, and knowing the mod's schedule I also knew I'd be available at the start of D2, so I could've practically gone to AT LEAST D3 undetected. That's probably LYLO if we don't lynch scum today.

Try using some actual logic instead, like if we hypothetically knew for sure someone is indeed a GUARD that would be one confirmed townie, because we KNOW this modifier is "town only" as per the rules.

Logic does not dictate Suzune "must" be scum bc I'm town, nor does it dictate Dunn "must" be scum if Suzune is also town. We don't have a cap on the number of players with a certain modifier, and since it's done randomly there are no guarantees that someone could or could not be scum regardless. There's also no guarantee ALL four modifiers exist in the actual game.

[Almost50]

Here's the thing: whether you're a town redirector or a mafia redirector, claiming doesn't really matter

Oh, but it did in my case. If your slot is town, and it was pushing on Suzune (RC was mainly pushing on her based on the redirection thing), and I was scum, I should/would have been more than happy to have them go at it and lock horns while I silently watched and even fed the fire. Unless you think Suzune is my partner, in which case it still didn't make much sense for me to claim my role and add more confusion. It was a 1 on 1 and a guaranteed winning situation for my benefit EVEN if either of you was my partner (and even more beneficial if neither of you was/is but I was scum still). Now tell me why would I defuse that situation??

[Almost50]

A50 just said "why would I claim redirector as scum" but why not? It's not like you're less likely to be lynched as redirector than other roles

I'm not talking about the claim in itself, I'm talking about the manner and timing. OK, never mind. You're obviously locked on me as your target, so... *Shrug*

[Almost50]

His play day 1 also has a striking resemblance to his play in soccer spirits where he waited for Hiplop, Wisdom and TWIE to vote before he decided to vote anyone which remind me a lot about his play regarding me yesterday. Although I am not 100% sure if that is just how A50 plays as a lot of the time I do the same thing where I just sheep a player I trust. (like this game I am just leaching off Suzune's Shiro read)

Man, this is funny. Please do check the VC's again and tell me who was leading the wagon on FA, and who was resisting it to the point I gave up. I also explained why I changed my mind on FA, and then I was the first person to vote Jason and never left.

Did I ever try to bus on either you or Wisdom in soccer spirits?? Did I vote you/Wisdom?? I mean, I was the one who explicitly said "No, I'm not lynching MY SCUM BUDDY" when asked to vote your slot by Spiffy! Duh!

If you seriously did/do look at my play at Soccer Spirits the one and only deduction you could make is this: If I'm scum, FA is NOT my partner. If FA is scum, then I most certainly am not his partner.

Now try again, bc I think you're seeing things, my friend. Go ahead and lynch me, then follow that up with a lynch on FA, then blame yourself for losing the game (or at least for being in a LYLO if FA flips scum).

[Almost50]

Ok I'm good with an Almost lynch.

VOTE: Almost

Jason and I talked last night right before I went to bed and we discussed beeboy and Dunnstral. There's the progression on Beeboy you guys are missing from him. Jason, I think we were wrong about Almost and what you said was town about Almost I think I can see myself do as scum just for the towncred and besides that he hasn't done anything much useful. As scum it's also a lot easier to defend townies (and hope they townread you for it, and later kill them) than push lynches, in my experience that is.

I want a flip and I'm townreading Dunn so I don't think we're getting 2 flips tonight. I'm gonna hammer. Besides that, Jason convinced me very early on that Almost was town because of his claim and defending RJ vs Suzune. So now I'm starting to get paranoid about Jason/Almost as the scumteam, ignoring Shiro/Suzune for easy misslynching later and go after Beeboy/Aristo first. These last few hours have either helped me get better reads or confused the hell out of me but yeah here we go.

VOTE: Jason

I btw broke up with Jason just in case.

This is also bugging me. It would have been super easy to throw dirt on Masquerade for her vote switch. I don't understand why scum would kill a potential mislynch rather than go for the OBVIOUS RJ/Dunn slot which was guaranteed to die.

VOTE: Dunn

This could be the most viable explanation.

[Almost50]

FA is starting to strike me as town I will reevaluate my read later.

VOTE: Almost50

I cannot be this blind. I thought you were town, but I honestly see no town motive behind you "misrepresenting" my play here in comparison to SS, and sheeping someone who is currently alive because ???? <<== WIFOM

[Almost50]

OK.. I'll make EVERBODY a deal right now (while we still have the majority): Lynch me, and when I flip town you go straight to lynching DUNN. This is the one slot that SHOULD have been dead if town.

[Almost50]

Rather if you were town you wouldn't have voted me.

Yeah, we can play that game too. "If YOU were town you wouldn't have voted me either".

Now pry tell -for the sake of amusement- how it would be anti-town to vote you? And does that apply to others as well or am I a special case??

It's like saying "if you were town you should give in and eat rope", which -in my mind- isn't town at all!!

[Almost50]

Love: A50

I will test the claim.

Hmm, this happened before I shot a love shot at Suzune.

Wonder what happened to beeboy's shot...? It doesn't seem like it was redirected at all, more like completely deflected

I have no idea what you're saying here, tbh. What do you mean "deflected" rather than "redirected"?

[Almost50]

Lol so the redirect to a redirect just fails then. Fun stuff!

How the hell does it "fail"?? I'm totally lost here. I was targeted by beeboy and his love got redirected to Dunn, and as beeboy's action was submitted first it resolved first so Dunn didn't have a love shot to direct at Suzune in the first place.

Shiro had no problem loving FA since FA is not a redirector (it actually resolved before both beeboy & Dunn's actions, but that's irrelevant now).

The last action by Aris is pending, and should result in Aris loving me. Now where does it get confusing for you, guys?

[Almost50]

I have had the realization I am incredibly confident Shiro is town.

And I have had the realization half the players don't even understand the mechanics of the game at all!! You

could

ask the mod to clarify, you know!

[Almost50]

But I'm a redirector......... how did it get redirected to me

I'm not sure if it was in the pregame post or a PM to Frozen, but I know that doesn't affect the outcome. The redirection only works if you're targeting the redirector directly (thus the name "redirection".) If redirected to a redirector (which was not your initial target) you will end up bonding with them regardless.

[Almost50]

The last action by Aris is pending, and should result in Aris loving me. Now where does it get confusing for you, guys?

The mod has been and gone. How do you figure thus is still pending?

Maybe she missed it? Or maybe she was only doing the VC.. I'm not in a position to speak for her, but we can wait further to confirm (or refute) my understanding of how this plays out.

[Almost50]

@beeboy:

I'm not getting your logic at all. If we lynch scum they're sure to take out a townie. If we lynch town they might still take out their biggest suspect who may still flip town. By now I feel town are playing to scum win-con, while scum are playing for town win-con with that weird kill (Masq also broke up with Jason, so would have been lunched with only 3 votes!!!)

[Almost50]

How about if they're being town read by their lover??

[Almost50]

Then we're obviously not talking at the same point. My response was @beeboy's claim that "we need a lover kill today". If that's not how you see it, then you and I are actually on the same page.

[Almost50]

Ok, then! I stand corrected. My bad. A redirector will always redirect a love shot regardless of whether they were targeted directly or indirectly.

Love: Aris

[Almost50]

I can answer that question if you want I figured it out.

Be my guest. I obviously was working under the wrong understanding and -strangely enough- I must've dreamt it was somehow mod-confirmed until Frozen cleared it up for me.

[Almost50]

Oh, beeboy is already in love with ARIS. I got it now too.

[Almost50]

Oh, crap! So, scum are deliberately slowing the game down and some town players are too lazy to try and pick it up, and we end up discussing irrelevant stuff until closer to deadline where we decide to speed lynch someone just in order to get a flip.

This is a tactic that ALWAYS ends up in a town loss. Check the last one of them:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=65746

[Almost50]

Would venge if lynched tho.
Thanks for the pairing, Almost!

*Sigh* Well, I'm willing to take the chance, as I'm fairly confident that you're town. Hopefully though I will be able to obv!town to you soon enough. (besides, I don't think you're in any danger of getting lynched. I'm the one under scrutiny).

[Almost50]

TURTLEL/TORTOISE speed is how fast this game is going.

[Almost50]

Sorry for not positing min.
I feel pretty good about this:
VOTE: Almost50

That's the most opportunistic votes if I ever saw one!!

Please give me a little time to re-read and come up with something that may benefit the town after my lynch!

P.S. Hammering me now is basically a scum claim, but I'm like 75% confident the two scum are already voting me, so please give me a little more time to research something and get back to you.

[Almost50]

OK, here's my case on the RC/Dunn slot:

RC made a push on FA on D1 and as soon as the wagon gained momentum he jumped off it. I know RC would hard push his scum partner, so ju,ping off it is another reason why I thought FA might not be scum. It looked like RC pushed for the mislynch and then tried to get off the wagon so he can claim he did warn us it went too fast and then push on someone who WAS on it.

On D1, RC voted Shiro, Suzune and FA, then Dunn took over and voted beeboy and hard defended FA (now this is a bit confusing to me, so I'm not sure anymore if FA is town and was targeted for a mislynch or is that slot's scum buddy).

Now what ticked me is something I was talking about to Aris in our PT, which is the NK choice. Dunn would have been a 100% guaranteed kill, but -even stranger- picking Masquerade (who would have been lynched with only 3 votes after having broke up with Jason) was inexplicable to me, and I thought it was done by a scum duo who were both hard town reading Masquerade in this thread so couldn't have pushed on her.

I tried ISOing my top suspect (Dunn) first, and I was amazed to find him asking her about here reads (post #735, to which she responded with the following quote:

I have Almost and Jason as townreads, Suzune shifts back to null when she's afk but when she posts actual content I like her for town, Fire I still find it odd he's not paranoid of me when I'm a top townread of his, but other than that I didn;t think he was scum, more like nulltown rn, I think you (dunnstral) are probably town rn and so that brings me back to my original suspicion of Aristo and Beeboy being buddies. And I miss Shiro I see, keep forgetting about her because she;s not really bringing much to the discussion but somehow I do feel like shes town but that;s mostly because last time I played with her she was scum and tried to be more involved. I'm ok with sorting her tomorrow but I would like a vote from her today..

So I went back to ISO Masquerade herself from that point after. 2 posts later she changed her mind and voted me saying she was OK with my lynch (!!!), then she ended up voting Jason (!!!!!) <<< Her top two town reads!!!!!

So, I'm thinking with Jason flipping town, Dunn thought he'd be offing Masquerade and then pushing on beeboy blaming him for the kill, and when it didn't go well he's trying to push on me instead and would probably hide behind Masquerade's last action of D1 for an excuse to deter suspicion.

It may not look like a perfect case here, but just try to think it over.. WHO (in their right minds) would shoot someone who had been HATED for the D2 phase is a MINI over someone who was 100% a guaranteed kill?? Unless that slot (the guaranteed kill) is scum itself. Everything else is just spice (i.e. additional "trying to put myself in their shoes" kind of thinking).

I'm more confident than ever that Dunn IS scum here.

[Almost50]

Ok. let me tell you this:

Since that FA vote on me only myself, Dunn & Aris got online (or at least posted in this thread). Scum!Aris should have hammered me in an attempt to end game. Assuming he is scum and FA is town he would have hoped I would suicide FA (bc I already town read Aris more) which would have meant we're down to 3T vs 2S going into the night. All scum needed is to get their NK through an ANY of the 3 townies left to get their win.

The ONLY case Aris could be scum is if he and FA specifically ARE the scum duo (obviously me suiciding FA in this case is not the optimal choice as it takes us into the night at 4 vs 1, so D3 is MyLo...).

I won't be addressing Dunn's unvote until he does come back and explain it. His reasoning could make the difference between us winning or losing this game.

Note: The game COULD BE OVER IF WE MISLYNCH TODAY. See above. That's why I didn't like beeboy's "we need to lynch between lovers". One mislynch coupled with the wrong suicide and we're in LyLo going into the night, so a successful NK (even on the wrong person, i.e. targeting a lover of the BG) would still lose us the game on N2.

Now please do try to pay more attention and stop playing recklessly (all of you). THINK before you vote.

[Almost50]

Actually, don't put anyone @L-1 unless you're fairly sure they're scum AND have considered the possibility of them being town still but are lovers with someone you think is scum. The only way we can go to D3 is for scum to die today either by lynch or suicide.

[Almost50]

OK.. you're over-simplifying it.. I was actually hoping for a more elegant explanation that would've considerably lifted my read on you.

Here's how I thought you "might" have done it for: If you're town, you considered the possibility one scum was not on my wagon still and they could've hammered and then (the above-mentioned sequence). I can't see a scum motivation for you to unvote unless your scum buddy IS indeed on my wagon, and thus you want to lure another town player to vote me so you can hammer and .. (sequence).

"bc if you're not mafia we lose" vaguely serves the above but isn't as clear as I would have hoped for. If you're town, you're making it harder for me to get a clear town read on you.

Aris was online at the time I posted. We were talking on the PT, so he definitely did had time to hammer me if he wanted to. If you think FA is town then I can guarantee Aris is town as well. Aris can only be scum with FA.. or me actually. I mean, let's look at it from anyone else's PoV.. Aris not hammering me COULD be bc he IS my scum partner. However, from my own view that is a null probability bc I know my own alignment at the very least, which makes him 95% town for that incident alone. (Am I making sense or have I managed to confuse you instead??)

[Almost50]

To me it's ETHER Shiro OR FA. They can't be scum together. I'm working under the assumption scum would not love eachother, since suiciding one of your lovers directly increases the suspicion on the one you didn't. That is part of why I had doubts on you + FA as you didn't try to love him on D1 (your slot didn't do so, I mean).

[Almost50]

Ok.guy I think I solved this game

It is either

Fire and Suzu
Or
Dun and beeboy

All other pairs seem incompatible to me

Explain both possibilities please. I'm in no mood to pair up 7 players (21 possible pairs) and work it out myself right now, so I would very much appreciate some pointers to help me out.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

I'm not sure whom I would vote anymore. All I know -right now- is I'm not voting ARIS even if he was my own counter lynch.

[Almost50]

When we lynch, is the lynched going to Venge a Lover or should we preemptively decide against it as a group?

This is definitely a good point to ponder. Theoretically speaking; if we mislynch and they do NOT venge, we enter the night as 4-2. Assuming a successful NK who does NOT venge either = 3-2 at the start of the next day phase.

However, there's some confusion in my mind in the case that the lynchee DOES lynch. I mean, we go into the night as 3-2 OR 4-1 (dpending on the venged player). The latter is good already, but what about the former. More to it, what if the NK does go through.. is the game over instantly or do we wait for the NK'd player to try and salvage the situation by venging someone, so "maybe" we will get to the next day phase as 2-1??

@FA: Does the NK end the game in the above-mentioned case or do we still have a shot at it with a venge before the game is decided?

The game won't end before a win condition happens. ~FA

[Almost50]

Btw, I have a request from my lovers (FA & Aris)). If you have something for me in our PT, please tell me so in here. Due to being in multiple games the browser is full of tabs, so I'm trying to close those that do not need me to keep them open to make the PC perform better.

[Almost50]

@Suzune:

Not sure what you mean, but ANYTHING that might help us move in the right way is welcome in my book.

@Fire:

It's NOT a wise move to break up today with anyone, bc you'll be hated on D3, which requires only 2 votes (assuming 4-5 players alive) for your lynch. If we mislynch, that's practically handing scum the win on a silver platter.

[Almost50]

*Plate

[Almost50]

i would love to hear about why you are town reading beeboy, and defending that town read all game. I would also not like you to say, I already did that. Like the last time I asked that question and hear something more concrete then, I feel confident. Because four people expressed interest in that slot and you defended it all four times.

Ok.. please pay full attention with all you senses.. ready??

I *points at himself* have *raises his palm faced backwards signaling a previous time* been *no gesture* scum *makes an ugly face* with *joins both his pointers in parallel side-by-side* him *points at beeboy* in *pointer down* a game *makes a random move* that ended *moves both palms faced down apart from eachother* recently *points at watch then points backwards with thumb*

Got it yet??

You also demand a lot of your lovers in topic. Apparently they should not fight with you where we all can see it? Why so?

Demand a lot?? Does me trying to close the tabs "that

do not need me

to keep them open" hint that we're even talking that much in either??

And if you're still scum reading me then go ahead and lynch me. It's my bad that I stopped RC from wagoning you on D1, and I deserve to be punished for it. You're either scum or VERY bad town here, bc -assuming you're town for the sake of argument here- WHY ON EARTH would I have stopped him from targeting you for such a reason as being a redirector?? And then you come and say he could be my scum buddy too?? So you think BOTH scum are redirectors?? That's BRILLIANT!

P.S. Seriously... if me and Dunn (previously RC) are scum buddies, how come he used "2 of the same role can't be of the same alignment" argument to begin with?? I mean, I can take you scum reading me with a grain of salt and a twist of lemon, but WITH THE RC/DUNN SLOT????

[Almost50]

I am beginning to think that none of the redirectors can be scum together because Almost would not have needed to out himself to cover for RC.

Lady, go back and ISO yourself. you seem to need to remember what YOU YOURSELF say, rather than end up suggesting the exact opposite later on.

In fact, I don't give a hoot anymore. You staying alive in LyLo is disastrous as disaster can be.

[post=Suzune]Suzune[/post]

[Almost50]

VOTE: Suzune I meant. SORRY! (Obviously genuinely frustrated, but go ahead and scum read me for it all of you!

[Almost50]

The fact that I'm still alive tells me one of Shiro/Fire MUST BE scum. I don't think it's Shiro, but meh... let's push aside how I "feel" and use logic:

Lynch Suzune. She's scum??= She will suicide Shiro if Shiro is town = Fire eats rope next ==>> TOWN WIN
Lynch Suzune. She's scum??= She will NOT suicide Shiro if Shiro is scum = Shiro eats rope next ==>> TOWN WIN
Lynch Suzune. She's town??= She should NOT suicide Shiro. Someone dies at night and we will still have a chance to remedy the situation in D3, deciding between Siro & Fire (in light of the night kill).

My prediction is none of Shiro, Fire nor myself will be NK'd. We are all lynchable (and one IS scum no doubt). If Suzune flips scum we know Dunn, beeboy & Aris are all town, so even if one is NK'd the other two will be there to bring the win.

However, in the odd case she flips town it will get tricky. One of Shiro/Fire is scum with one of the other four. I cannot predict who will be picked for the NK in this case, but I don't think this has a high probability now.

So, my best guess is Suzune + Shiro/Fire (and I'm more than comfortable placing my money on Fire).

Over and out for the night.

P-edit: Fine. That makes two of us. Also, that quote (my post #430) should tell you he wasn't talking to me at all in the PT. "Is there anything

AT ALL

we need to talk about in private??"

P-edit 2: OK, Suzune.. I'm sorry if I drove you mad. I do apologize. Myabe I am overreacting. I will leave the thread now and come back tomorrow.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Arist

I am town reading every other player in this game.
I think I am doing something wrong :/

You sure are, and this vote proves it. You're not helping me at all (in terms of town reading you). You've got a PT with Aris and you should be able to see he IS town.

[Almost50]

@ Dunn:

Would you rather Suzune then?? Or would you go for a NL?? bc the only other option (besides beeboy, Suzune, NL) is yourself, as it stands! Unless you can come up with a STRONG case on someone else, that is.

[Almost50]

My last attempt to use the input in an unbiased way:

Assumptions:
1- Scum would not have loved eachother on D1 or D2. This is bc if either got lynched it would have looked extremely suspicious for them to not venge or to venge someone over the other. This is not/will not be true on D3 bc both the number of players will have been reduced AND having 3 lovers will still spread confusion even if one of them is venged.
2- Scum will not love the same person on the opening 2 days. This is bc if they do the loved one is town by default, and they might suicide one of them upon lynch/kill which will be one scum down either way.

Now, here's a list of all available duets alive:
beeboy + Suzune

beeboy + Dunn

Lovers
beeboy + Fire

beeboy + Aris

Lovers

beeboy + Almost

both love Aris
beeboy + Shiro
Suzune + Dunn

Suzune + Fire

both love Shiro
Suzune + Aris
Suzune + Almost

Suzune + Shiro

Lovers
Dunn + Fire

Dunn + Aris

both love beeboy
Dunn + Almost
Dunn + Shiro

Fire + Aris

both love Almost

Fire + Almost

Lovers

Fire + Shiro

Lovers

Aris + Almost

Lovers
Aris + Shiro

Almost + Shiro

both love Fire

So this leaves me with 10 possible combinations with Suzune & Dunn being in 4 of them each, both beeboy & Shiro in 3 each, Fire, Aris & Almost appearing twice each.

So, from a mere statistical PoV it's better to lynch either of Suzune or Dunn to either eliminate 6 or 4 possibilities (depending on them flipping scum/town respectively). It could be argued that lynching either of Fire, Aris or Almost is better, but that's only true if the lynchee flips scum (eliminating 8 possibilities and leaving us with only 2). If they flip town though we have only eliminated 2 possibilities and are left with 8.

So, my vote is currently on Suzune, but could be switched to Dunn if we agree to it. The thing is I would strongly advise 9actually would beg) the lynchee NOT to venge anyone if they are town themselves. If you do you might be handing the game to scum already, while if you don't we are guaranteed a D3 does get played in the game, thus we still have a shot at it.

I'm open to suggestions and criticism though, as I'm approaching this from a pure theoretical approach with hypothetical assumptions that I believe to be true (and have provided the reasoning behind my belief).

Also, please: NOBODY break up with their lovers. If you do you become hated and scum could very well slam dunk on the start of D3 if we don't lynch one of them already today.

[Almost50]

How so?

[Almost50]

OK..

VOTE: Dunn

Not bc I'm "sure" he's scum, but bc I'm sure IF he is town he won't be vegging beeboy with him.

[Almost50]

So, we will enter the night as 4-2 or 4-1 which means we probably will start D3 at 3:2 (LyLo) or 3-1 (MyLo) but the game won't end today/tonight.

[Almost50]

Straight up, Dunn: Are you or are you not Mafia here?? Also, IF you flip town; who would you want us to lynch tomorrow?

[Almost50]

My lips are sealed. Though I've already answered the second part

You only said FA is scum recently, which I'm not sure was your stance from before. Is beeboy still town to you? Come on, man. Give us something to make it easier for us if you're really town. If you're scum, so be it. I mean, we'll probably disregard it anyway.

[Almost50]

Beeboy is definitely town

Noted. Anyone else?

[Almost50]

Just consolidateing:

beeboy + Suzune
beeboy + Fire
beeboy + Shiro

Suzune + Dunn

Suzune + Aris
Suzune + Almost

Dunn + Fire

Dunn + Almost

Dunn + Shiro

Aris + Shiro

Marked in red is possibilities if Dunn is scum. In this case beeboy IS confirmed town (to me).
The normal colour indicated possible combinations if Dunn flips town. None of us would be cleared.

[Almost50]

Also, Woooooosh!

Pagetop for

Man, you're something!! I'm trying to solve the game here, and all you care about is the page top???

[Almost50]

Love Shiro

[Almost50]

I don't if this is indicative, but neither Shiro's nor Fire's lovers get shot! I remember when they both where on me (along with Dunn) and I didn't get hammered, and I did state back then that both scum were on me. I'll have to sit on this for a little bit more pondering though.

[Almost50]

Hmmm.. if both beeboy & Fire were town then beeboy would have been hammered by now. Fire is always on the wagon that doesn't go through, which STRONGLY hints he IS one of the scum duo. I have no idea what else to say here. I'm like 100% sure Fire Assassin is scum in this game.

Shall we lynch scum today? Beeboy? Shiro? Suzune??

[Almost50]

WAIT! With Aris NK'd the remaining 4 possible combinations form my previous list (post #1127) are:

beeboy + Suzune
beeboy + Fire
beeboy + Shiro
Suzune + Almost

And I know I'm not scum, so beeboy must be.. or I'm doing something terribly wrong here. The question is WHY wasn't I hammered when I got to L-1 when beeboy was OFF that wagon?? It was composed of Dunn, Shiro & Fire.

[Almost50]

Do you guys reckon Fire might be pushing his p so that we hesitate??

OK.. beeboy only has FIRE as his lover, right? We will see if he suicides him if he gets lynched, but STILL no need to hurry.

[Almost50]

Btw, Fire targeted Suzune with his love shot today. He knew she was a redirector though. I'm a redirector as well, AND I'm already his lover. Shiro was also his lover, so -mechanically- he could only have landed on beeboy either way. So why use the "indirect" route? Why bond with him in the first place? I'm thinking it's so that he can suicide either of me or Shiro and still leave the town puzzled as to which of the 2 lovers he has is his scum buddy, but then he could've done a better job if he only had me/Shiro as his 2 lovers and just venged one of us to get the other lynched! Why vote your p when you KNOW it won't be a quick lynch anyway???

(Sorry.. thinking aloud, but I'm seriously going in loops here).

[Almost50]

OK, I broke up with Fire. Basically, it was either he suicides me today or we have a race to hammer on D4. I picked the latter bc we would still have a chance, although a minimal one. I won't explain any further, but it should be obvious why

[Almost50]

Theoretically speaking and discounting anything else it says EITHER beeboy OR Fire is scum (or maybe they're both scum).

However, why would Fire vote his own partner in LyLo?? And why would beeboy suggest we break up with Fire if he was scum?? I would very much like someone to think of a logical answer here that brings beeboy back on the table, because -as things stand- I don't see beeboy as scum at all.

[Almost50]

I already broke up with Fire, and I'm ready to vote him when we're all ready.

[Almost50]

I'm still torn between Suz & Shiro tbh, but I'm not, but I'm leaning Suzune bc she didn't break up with Shiro yet, signifying she doesn't want to be hated (which gives her a better chance bc TWO have to beat her to voting). I've been waiting for her to say something about this (and I would have broke up with Shiro myself if she did) but her failing to even bring this up is worrying. It's like she's planning on offing one of us and voting the other at day break to win the game.

[Almost50]

In fact, braking up with Shiro now (for me) doesn't hurt either of us. We're both hated already. Should I just do it?

[Almost50]

So what's next?? Are we voting or are we waiting for something else?

[Almost50]

@beeboy:

Please write down every combination of scum possible (including those unlikely in your view). That is: FA+Suzune, FA+Shiro, FA+Almost, Suzune+Shiro, Suzune+Almost & Shiro+Almost. Try predicting the next move by scum to weigh all options. I did and it's my conclusion that it's best to keep the ties between Shiro and both myself and Suzune. I hope things will be clearer in your mind if you do so.

[Almost50]

Intent to put FA @ L-1. If he is town (which I can't foresee, but .. just IF he is..) we've already lost. Other possibilities I'd rather not make too obvious (although I'm sure they should be clear to both town and scum alike).

[Almost50]

I think you need to do this over pm >.>
THIS IS A COMPLICATED PROCESS I DON'T WANT TO MESS OK?

I agree!

[Almost50]

?? Not sure I understand. I don't think Aris would've venged anyone. I thought it was clear that doing so could cost us the game.

Fire unlynchable = we lost already either way. It's the equivalent of a NL today, which means we go into the night on a LyLo.

[Almost50]

Ok.. let's do this:

VOTE: Fire Assassin

[Almost50]

VOTE: Suzune

Inb4 she comes online and votes one of us off

Town win!!! Yaaaaaay!

P.S. Sorry for having doubted you, Shiro. It was till weird that I didn't get hammered when you, Dunn & Fire were on me. I guess Suzune didn't get online during that period.

[Almost50]

Thank you, my friend. I'm sorry I had to troll till the very last minute for fear you might break up with me today and I'd have to get try and beat you to the hammer tomorrow.