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I think we should lynch the scummiest of the 4 corners today
VOTE: Lane0168
lynching Luna Fox would force a D3 lynch on AlpacaIn post 18, lane0168 wrote:alpaca
lynching atm would force a D3 lynch on UmlautIn post 18, lane0168 wrote:umlaut
eh you got me there, but lynching Dunn on D2 would be safe (although it would give scum semi-free reign for D2 night kill)In post 18, lane0168 wrote:or Dunnstral?
Haha Lane I think I've been town every time we have played togetherIn post 50, lane0168 wrote:Guilty I've got a town read on you. Did you fool me before? Oh I just remembered I almost fooled you in that multiball. Anyways, I think if we lynch the opposite corner from me and those two sides it should be a win...
This is the best approach, I think. If we can all agree on a corner block with three townies, we can lynch the opposite corner and force the other six players to be killed. Worst case scenario is both scum are in the block of 3 and we lose, meh scenario is a 2-1 LYLO, best case scenario is autowin.In post 55, lane0168 wrote:My strategy is keep upper right corner alive. If scum don't kill IC then we'll win from tic tac toe. If they do everyone in bottom left dies.
I am backIn post 165, Wingback wrote:When you are back, I'm interested in talking about the Luna scumread.
I guess I can sort of see this, but think about the end game here: with Umlaut advocating a Luna Fox lynch followed by a java lynch, Lane is forced to be NK'd, followed by obligatory Dunnstral lynch, followed by scum forced to kill Umlaut. If he's scum committing to a bus on a partner starting with a vote on Luna Fox, it comes out as an auto-loss for him in the end.In post 191, Wingback wrote: Not sure I want Umlaut and Javajoe at the end. I suspected bussing when Umlaut pushed on Javajoe so early in the game. In this setup bussing isn't a bad idea given the lynch setups are mostly determined in advance so in scenarios where scum die, it's best if their partner comes out looking good by having accused them.
Alpaca is active lurking. He hasn't once offered a legitimate effort to sort people, instead what he has posted has been RVS joking and then small questions/comments on theory. He also called McMenno town in his 154 in a way that pings me as fake:In post 191, Wingback wrote:Can you explain your scumread on Alapaca?
the way this is written it feels like he's just naming names and threw on McMenno afterwards because the slot is confirmed town. Like, am I on the same tier of towniness to Alpaca as the IC, why am I separated from Luna/Wing? I can't figure out exactly how to put it into words, but it doesn't look like something town would write.In post 154, AlpacaAlpaca wrote:I am pretty sure Luna and Wing are town so are guilty and mcmenno
@Dunn - Are you still for lynching mcmenno?
I mean it makes sense, but why couldn't scum!Luna have faked it?In post 191, Wingback wrote:For someone espousing a townhunting + POE style, it makes sense to latch onto a few townreads and lynch outside of that.
I've never played with Luna before but I just think these are things that competent scum can fake. Especially the early townreads on myself and Lane, we were both actively engaged and demonstrating evidence of thinking about the setup - I feel town would be more likely to be paranoid. The last point is probably your best one - I suppose you can make the same argument for town!Luna (assuming scum!Alpaca) as I just made for town!Umlaut.In post 191, Wingback wrote:My main reason for townreading Luna include suggesting the possibility of her lynch, pro-activeness in developing two quick townreads as early as page one (Post 21, Post 22), those townreads being the same ones as mine, asking whether scum can kill themselves in thread as opposed to in the scum PT (Post 28), saying that Blitz game is making it harder for her to get townreads which reads like genuine concern (Post 53), not using that excuse to not have townreads (she's already got three, you, me, and Lane), townreading me despite my lynch on D1 being beneficial to her as it gets her into LYLO.
So you have Dunn in your leftovers pile but you'd rather lynch yourself than him??In post 211, Luna Fox wrote:Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox
why did you make this vote
I'm not calling alpaca scum in my post, I'm responding to Lane's question about how we could kill alpaca if we lynch Lane and scum kill center. There's a lot of projection/assumption in the rest of your quote here - now that I've pointed out that I'm not calling alpaca scum in 20, do you still feel like the rest of your point holds up?In post 341, Javajoe24 wrote:This is the first time you mention alpaca being scum, before I think he had truly done anything scummy. I believe you are bussing your partner for town cred, painting a picture to town of me and alpaca as scum because you lay a plan in the future to let you, lane(who you are buddying), and me make it to the final three. Thus making me the obvious choice to lynch winning you the game.In post 20, GuiltyLion wrote:Can't force a scumkill on them, but we can guarantee that we'll lynch them as follows:
lynching Luna Fox would force a D3 lynch on AlpacaIn post 18, lane0168 wrote:alpaca
lynching atm would force a D3 lynch on UmlautIn post 18, lane0168 wrote:umlaut
eh you got me there, but lynching Dunn on D2 would be safe (although it would give scum semi-free reign for D2 night kill)In post 18, lane0168 wrote:or Dunnstral?
We're not going to be able to force certain players to be scumkilled if we play in the center either. After the scum NK and our D2 lynch, you'll have the same problem that you're pointing out here. You're just delaying this problem in the setup by one day, after you lynch confirmed town.
Yes, I am insinuating alpaca is town in this post. First of all, I had not said that he was scummy, so that's a misrep. Second, this post is talking about the logic of the tic-tac-toe setup, it's making no reads on anyone's alignments. It's not that I think Alpaca is town, it's that I'm assuming he is town because he would be the scumkill to prevent the TTT victory. You should understand this, and I have a hard time believing that you don't.In post 341, Javajoe24 wrote:You had just said that alpaca is scummy, but in this post you said he will turn up dead, insinuating that he is town.In post 26, GuiltyLion wrote:My point is, let's say we go your plan, scum kill atm, we lynch java, alpaca turns up dead, now we're forced to lynch Dunnstral, scum is forced to kill lane, and everyone else is immune from NKs
In post 341, Javajoe24 wrote:Further soft bussing on alpaca. Earlier you had said he would turn up dead and you don't seem to have any independent argument for him being scum that I saw. Maybe you can point it out if I missed it?
In post 193, GuiltyLion wrote:Alpaca is active lurking. He hasn't once offered a legitimate effort to sort people, instead what he has posted has been RVS joking and then small questions/comments on theory. He also called McMenno town in his 154 in a way that pings me as fake:Wingback wrote:Can you explain your scumread on Alapaca?the way this is written it feels like he's just naming names and threw on McMenno afterwards because the slot is confirmed town. Like, am I on the same tier of towniness to Alpaca as the IC, why am I separated from Luna/Wing? I can't figure out exactly how to put it into words, but it doesn't look like something town would write.Alpaca wrote:I am pretty sure Luna and Wing are town so are guilty and mcmenno
@Dunn - Are you still for lynching mcmenno?
Called it here:In post 341, Javajoe24 wrote:Here is where you start pushing for me and alpaca being on the same team, which benefits you by bussing your partner for town cred and throwing shade at me for an easy mislynch.In post 266, GuiltyLion wrote:lane do you think scum just threw the game? Or do you think it's java-alpaca team?
But just a few posts later you "still" think it's an Elmo alpaca team? When did you ever say it was an Elmo alpaca team? And you just said a few posts ago it was me and alpaca.In post 297, GuiltyLion wrote:I still think it's Elmo-Alpaca and if Elmo flips scum then we auto-win
In post 164, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm calling a Luna+Alpaca scumteam tbh. I'm drunk rn but I'll be back for actual play tomorrow
also I explained thisIn post 361, lane0168 wrote:Real reason is because I want Cass/alpaca dead, and I'm not going to risk the least contributing person in the game pick someone all by themselves. Why are you so mad about scum being lynched? How does mcmenno choosing who to lynch avoid a quick hammer anyways? All he has to do is pick the wrong person and boom. Quick hammer
Well when I originally posted that, Alpaca/Cass was not confirmed scum, rememberIn post 367, lane0168 wrote:If. If we lynched scum. Why would you want to take that risk? Why would you take any risk of missing when you HAVE to lynch scum.
And before you were going to just leave it up to mcmenno, now you're annoyed it wasn't Java or me. What if mcmenno picked Cass?
Oh that's right, you were banking on him being more concerned with staying alive and not picking alpaca.
BTW VOTE: cass just in case
I didn't ignore it. I just didn't think it was a good plan. The only person that plan benefits is scum guilty assuming mcmenno will vote for Joe first
We don't know you're not scum, like at all. We don't know who McMenno would have picked, because you went ahead and voted before discussion/consensus happened.In post 368, lane0168 wrote:Well we know I'm not scum, because I would've waited for mcmenno to vote Javajoe, and then lynch for the win. Because that would've been easiest, and we know mcmenno was going to vote Joe.In post 366, GuiltyLion wrote:like we could have all sorts of tells if McMenno had picked Alpaca/Cass, then had Java vote, then me/you, etc. It would have created content.
Instead we just flipped obvscum and didn't gain any kind of useful information between javajoe/you/me as for final scum, other than JJ's shitty case and your out of nowhere LYLO vote
HMM MAYBE THAT'S WHY WE SHOULDN'T HAVE SPEEDLYNCHEDIn post 371, McMenno wrote:I would've picked not lane
but it's probably guilty yes... I'm really not sure currently
also no, you need to explain this. My plan literally benefits all town, it's completely neutral of all players alive since it relies on the only person we know having pure intentionsIn post 367, lane0168 wrote:I didn't ignore it. I just didn't think it was a good plan. The only person that plan benefits is scum guilty assuming mcmenno will vote for Joe first
AND TOMORROW WE HAVE A CHANCE TO HIT TOWN AND GIVE SCUM THE WINIn post 379, lane0168 wrote:No it doesn't. It only benefits scum. Your plan leaves a chance to hit town and give the scum the win. My way lynched obvious scum. It wasn't a Java GL team. There was basically no chance of that considering alpacas play and night 1 kill.
why is it an "extremely high probability to hit town" compared to the "extremely high probability to hit town" we have tomorrow? In fact you wanna talk probability, your way is CLEARLY worse, instead of 33% today and 50% tomorrow, you went with 33% today and 33% tomorrow.In post 382, lane0168 wrote:My argument doesn't have to assume Java is a mislynch. My argument points out the fact that your plan gives an extremely high probability to hit town compared to just lynching alpaca. You wanted to take the chance to lose right here right now, instead of lynching one scum, and finishing tomorrow.
sorry this isn't exactly right, I assumed I was town in the first half and that we weren't lynching me.In post 385, GuiltyLion wrote:In fact you wanna talk probability, your way is CLEARLY worse, instead of 33% today and 50% tomorrow, you went with 33% today and 33% tomorrow.