Micro 635 - 09:12 (Game Over)

[Ümläüt]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

The last time we played together, you were scum. By logic, therefore, you must be scum now.

That's a fallacy known as the gambler's fallacy. Only scum would need to use fallacies to justify their vote.

That's not the gambler's fallacy, it's the reverse gambler's fallacy. Only scum would lie about what fallacy Accountant committed.

VOTE: 0x40

[Ümläüt]

0x40, can we call you 64 for short?

[Ümläüt]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

The last time we played together, you were scum. By logic, therefore, you must be scum now.

That's a fallacy known as the gambler's fallacy. Only scum would need to use fallacies to justify their vote.

That's not the gambler's fallacy, it's the reverse gambler's fallacy. Only scum would lie about what fallacy Accountant committed.

VOTE: 0x40

That is indeed the reverse gambler's fallacy, but you just committed the fallacy fallacy.

VOTE: Umlaut

No, it's only the fallacy fallacy if I say Guilty must be town this game. Only scum would--oh, never mind.

[Ümläüt]

I have feelings about eager's last post, but I'm not sure what they are.

[Ümläüt]

I have feelings about eager's last post, but I'm not sure what they are.

Why did you post this

Pick one:

1. I wanted to do something in the way of contributing but I have nothing in the way of reads yet except "Eager's post feels funny"
   
2. I wanted to say something but I had nothing useful to say so I figured I'd just shitpost instead
   
3. I wanted to see how Eager took that post (it seems he didn't take it at all)
   
4. All of the above

[Ümläüt]

Wait, why is C the scummiest answer?

Anyway, Accountant did a better job drawing out an explanation from Eager than I did, so townread there. But, Accountant, bow do you take his answers? I like BTD's assessment on that but I don't know if you agree with it.

[Ümläüt]

Accountant, if you think that's what Snake is doing then you also think he's making up his own reason for his vote, so why don't you find that suspect?

I answered like that because I felt stupid saying "I wasn't really doing anything with it." I would have liked to believe it was A or C, but it was probably more B than I'm happy to admit.

[Ümläüt]

Weak townread on Eager for his responses here. I particularly like that he's refusing to accept a townread based on his "[having] 0 clue what is going on," it seems like scum would rather just accept whatever reason someone gives for calling them town.

[Ümläüt]

Lycan, I know why Eager is voting for ASP. Why are you voting for him?

[Ümläüt]

I was probably going to vote ASP once I got Lycan's answer here, but I'm not sure I'm ready for an L-1.

ASP has too much experience on this site to genuinely think that being temporarily cagey about one's reasoning is scum-indicative.

I

have too much experience to think that and I've been here less than a year. Then there's this:

Basically it has to do with how scum doesn't know how different town groups feel about what is scummy at the beginning of a game so they like to keep their options open and ask questions about what others think is scummy. Maybe play both sides of a discussion, ask things like "who is scum" "what do you think about X" which is basically asking "am I a suspect" or "did I do anything suspicious"

So basically, asking for reads and asking questions is scummy...?

This is a blatant misrepresentation of what Eager said and I find it hard to credit that ASP really read his point that way.

[Ümläüt]

Yeah, 0x40 isn't a bad vote. His activity level in this game is significantly lower than usual for him based on a skim of his posting history, and I don't like that he had time to question BTD6's reasonable caution but had nothing to say about ASP or his wagon.

Lion, I feel you about the speed of the ASP wagon, but maybe the points against ASP are just that good (by page 3 standards).

[Ümläüt]

Not sure about that since his question seems tailored to goad BTD into voting ASP.

If ASP is town then a scum 0x40 would want the wagon to go through to a lynch but wouldn't want to be associated with it.

[Ümläüt]

Do you have links to those games, Lion? I'd be interested to see if the manner in which he gets himself mislynched is the same way he's playing here.

[Ümläüt]

Just looked at 559, and in that one the evidence there was largely associational (he was the only living player not on a wagon that hit scum). On D1 a few people were on his case for not saying much, but no one was really heavily scumreading him that I saw skimming through. So I'm not sure I can take much from that.

I'll look at 533 in a bit.

[Ümläüt]

Lion, I looked at 633. It's kind of hard to be unbiased knowing in advance ASP is town in that game, but I can make a few observations at least:

• He had all of nine posts in twenty pages (citing outside commitments) and several voters cited his lack of contribution as the reason for voting.
  
• He also got heat for his PR soft ("I think this game is multiball"); I've at least read somewhere that suggesting multiball with insufficient evidence is frequently viewed as scummy.
  
• It took waaaay longer for his wagon to get up to L-1 and there were quite a few others before his, making it seem like he was more of a compromise lynch than anything.
  
• He actually got quickhammered almost immediately upon reaching L-1 despite the soft.

This doesn't seem directly relevant to what's going on here. I suppose it's possible ASP has a generally scummy-looking style that contributed to those mislynches (like I said, it's hard to look at that objectively knowing his flip in those games), but nothing I've seen makes me think that's a big factor in his current wagon.

(I was going to make some sort of conclusion here but I don't think I actually disagree with you on anything actionable. The wagon is good, it's too early to settle on a lynch, let's keep looking at other wagons.)

[Ümläüt]

Hi, Mav.

I'd like to know who if anyone is townreading ASP right now and why. Obviously if you think he's town you should be trying to keep us from mislynching; but just as importantly, if his wagon goes to a lynch unchallenged, it will be hard for town to draw much associational data from it regardless of the flip.

[Ümläüt]

I don't see why anyone, town or scum, would reject Lion's defense there, I agree that it's kind of towny for lack of a scum motivation, but I don't understand what his problem is with it; it's not like Lion was just saying "ASP is definitely town because meta," he was just saying to be cautious because ASP has a history of being lynchbait, which seems like about the most unobjectionable possible use.

What I guess I'm saying is I think ASP's last post is weird as hell but I don't think it's a further reason to scumread him.

[Ümläüt]

EBWOP: Most unobjectionable possible use

of meta

.

[Ümläüt]

I'm not Accountant, but that looks more like a derp moment than a serious inconsistency to me.

[Ümläüt]

I appreciate your point, but as far as I can see Accountant still answered the question and didn't

just

latch onto my derp explanation.

I hope you still got what you wanted out of the question.

[Ümläüt]

I've never really bought into "too easy" as an argument against a lynch. It seems related to "too scummy to be scum" which everyone knows is stupid, yet people seem to take this notion seriously. Are there any actual numbers to back up the idea that wagons on scum take longer to assemble than wagons on town?

[Ümläüt]

To clarify: "too easy" is okay as an argument against lynching someone

right now

(because we need more discussion), but not as an argument against lynching them

that day

.

[Ümläüt]

I can't move my vote to 0x40 because it's already there.

Hey, 0x40, do you have any opinions on anything yet?

[Ümläüt]

And yeah, BTD is tricky for me too.

He's at least townier than he was in our last game together when I championed a D1 mislynch on him, so I'm defaulting to a townread for now.

[Ümläüt]

Lycan, I think you should vote for ASP again

[Ümläüt]

Are there any actual numbers to back up the idea that wagons on scum take longer to assemble than wagons on town?

[Ümläüt]

@BTD

That question wasn't just for you, though. In fact you were never one of the ones saying "this wagon seems too easy" in the first place.

[Ümläüt]

Mav, why is your vote still on Snake?

[Ümläüt]

Here's a readlist we can all ignore.

Town!:

eagerSnake, GuiltyLion

Town?:

Accountant, Lycanfire

Meh

: BTD6_maker, Mavslot

Scum:

A Simple Plan, 0x40

(This is surprisingly well-organized)

0x40 has done fuck-all for this game so I think he's a better lynch than ASP.

[Ümläüt]

Just went back and noticed this:

Accountant and Ümläüt are both stronger scumreads to me than ASP.

This is everything 0x40 has actually said about Accountant or me. No case given. I'd say he hasn't even bothered to vote one of us yet except that he's still voting Accountant from RVS.

(Though, come to think of it, I'm still voting 0x40 from RVS too. Not the first time this has happened to me.)

[Ümläüt]

As a general rule of thumb your vote should always be on the person you want to see dead next.

Only if you're town

[Ümläüt]

I kind of distinguish between policy lynches and utility lynches.

Policy lynch is "We need to punish this behavior even if it lowers our chance of winning the game." This is

bad

.

Utility lynch is "We are more likely to win without this player in the game even if they're town." This is

good

(assuming it's true).

Both of these apply to Vedith right now, but I'd still prefer 0x40 until I've seen more.

[Ümläüt]

His ISO is seven posts long, I think you can manage it

[Ümläüt]

0x40, do you have anything to say? I can see you're active on MS, and you can't seriously still be claiming nothing of interest has happened yet.

You're looking like the most likely lynch so if nothing else you should be making a case on someone else.

[Ümläüt]

Lazy post, too much RL this weekend.

I still like the 0x40 wagon unless he's replaced and the replacement is super towny.

I don't like much of what Vedith has posted, but I never like anything that type of player posts so I'm not sure what to make of it. I wouldn't be too upset with a Vedith lynch, if nothing else it would be informative as others have said.

Has anyone noticed how Vedith overused smilies? This is possibly a thinly-veiled attempt at AtE. (I know this for sure. I am forbidden from explaining why. Once I am allowed to explain, I will).
The only issue is whether Vedith uses AtE regularly, or only as scum.

Pretty sure Vedith uses smilies heavily all the time, but I just realized I don't actually know this. I seriously doubt anyone who's been played more than a few games has such a blatant tell, though.

[Ümläüt]

"Forget Accountant for now. GuiltyLion is scum."

"For now let's just lynch Lycan."


w-w-w-what?

Second.

[Ümläüt]

Aristophanes, entrance, please!

Agreed

Also, prodge. Had an unusually active weekend, my head isn't really in the game right this second, don't want to make a low-effort post and can't invest the effort for a high-effort post until later.

[Ümläüt]

@DarkLightA

What are your feelings on ASP?

[Ümläüt]

I feel a little dirty about this because that seems like a perfectly reasonable thing to say right now, in any other slot. But in the context of your replacing 0x40 it continues the pattern of refusing to take a position on ASP which was a big part of what got your slot scumread in the first place.

[Ümläüt]

Let's wait until one of us flips scum and then you'll have your scumbuddy, how's that?

This implies I should flip one of you.

Anyway, this isn't dependent on ASP being scum. Refusing to comment on his wagon was scummy of Ox40 regardless of ASP's actual alignment.

[Ümläüt]

Like, your argument here is "He's calling me scummy for ignoring his question, but he's scummy for not realizing that I ignored even MORE of his questions"? Is that the argument you are seriously making?

QFT.

I'm glad you think DarkLight is scum, Lion. I do too, that's why I'm voting him. Why aren't you?

[Ümläüt]

Possible, but to be honest I think DarkLight is more likely scum.

If only there were something we could all do when we think someone is likely scum.

[Ümläüt]

I'm not especially good at selling wagons but I really like this one. I'll try to sell it harder in a bit but meanwhile what are people's current reads on DarkLight?

[Ümläüt]

You are suggesting Accountant's replace-out is strategic. In particular, since this is a "strong, strong sign of scum," you are saying Accountant is a person who replaces out when caught as scum. This is a pretty serious accusation. Are you planning to report him for this? Or, as I suspect, are you just full of shit?

[Ümläüt]

Aristophanes, you're still on your predecessor's vote and all you've done so far is ask Snake a question.

Who do you think is scum?

[Ümläüt]

Do you have meta with BTD, Aristophanes?

I only have one game with him, but based on that he's just acting like himself. I'm wary because he's the sort of player who could get away with active-lurking as scum by having a meta of active-lurking as town, but I'm going to have to wait for associatives before I can get a read there.

[Ümläüt]

We're getting close to the end of the day, let's start laying out our preferences.

• I want to lynch DarkLightA.
  
• I'd be willing to lynch Vedith or A Simple Plan.
  
• I won't lynch GuiltyLion or eagerSnake.
  
• Under extreme deadline pressure I will look at other wagons.

[Ümläüt]

If you're town, you're fucking lazy.

That hypothetical is correct, I'm way lazier as town. Thanks for noticing!

[Ümläüt]

Accountostophanes is probably town
BTD is null because I have no opinion
Lycan is null because I can't make up my mind

Now you have all my reads, hooray!

[Ümläüt]

So you are voting DarkLightA who is 0x40s replacement?

Yes, there are a few things that made me think 0x40 was scum and DarkLightA hasn't done anything to reduce my suspicion.

0x40:

• This may seem really stupid, but I didn't like his going along with my "Can I call you 64?" by saying that was fine. It seemed too conciliatory to what was kind of a jab at his name (though a light-hearted one). A better response would be to jab back or just ignore it.
  
• In 55 he asked Snake a bunch of questions that didn't really go anywhere. "Is that really your scumread? Really really?"
  
• In 66 he did the same to BTD and again didn't go anywhere with it. I could see town motivation in pushing BTD to put down a vote in order to see if he'd really do it, but again he never did anything to follow up on this.
  
• His excuse for inactivity in 90 was pretty pathetic with a wagon at L-1. In his two followup posts he commented on the wagon itself under pressure but notable never actually gave a read on ASP or talked about anything ASP was doing.
  
• Even as he flaked out of this game his activity level on the site as a whole never waned.

DarkLightA:

• His push on BTD is ridiculous, it was obvious what he was hinting at and I could see this as trying to ask someone questions he knows they can't answer.
  
• Hard scumread on GuiltyLion right out of the gate based on a single interaction, and no modulation of this based on Lion's solid responses. Could be just tunnel-vision but not when I'm already scumreading his slot. If I had to guess the specific motivation for this I'd say he's choosing a scumread that won't flip for a while so he can keep his hands clean.
  
• Has not explained his scumread on Accountant even though Accountant's slot is a more likely lynch than Lion, and doesn't seem interested in pushing it.
  
• Continues to refuse to give a read on ASP even when directly asked.

[Ümläüt]

So basically you have no content and want to push where easy.

Good guess, but actually I'm being uncooperative specifically to annoy you.

[Ümläüt]

Spoiler: DarkLight's first two substantial posts

Cool cool, cheers.
I'll start by unvoting
UNVOTE:
so I can start on a clean slate. Not necessarily a bad vote though.

The one thing I want to know currently is:

@BTD6:

what's up with the forbidden thing? Is it a game mechanic? AFAIK, there is no limitation to speech in this setup. Why do you feel the need to specify it?

One of the examples looks positively absurd:

This is possibly a thinly-veiled attempt at AtE. (I know this for sure. I am forbidden from explaining why. Once I am allowed to explain, I will).

"It's 'possibly' an 'attempt' at AtE—oh btw, i'm certain about this"

Accountant is my pick of the day for now. Vedith came to my defense so he must be town.

I want to watch Mr Robot now so everything will have to wait.

You're certain that it's possibly AtE? Lol

----

Forget Accountant for now. GuiltyLion is scum.

From seemingly nothing (correct me if I'm wrong) he picks up on LycanFire after his post criticising him. Notably, Lycan also comments on everyone else, but Guilty seems to have no interest in that—even though he doesn't even vote for Guilty. That's a scumtell if I ever saw one.

Apart from that Accountant has struck me as scum ever since the initial L-2 vote in his second post, but I'll get to that at a later point.

Umlaut is solid town. EagerSnake is town.

BTD6 has good content, but does it in all the wrong ways.


For now let's just lynch Lycan.

In these posts we find DarkLight's reads:

• Accountant is scum
  
• GuiltyLion is scum
  
• Vedith is town
  
• I'm town
  
• Snake is town
  
• BTD is probably town
  
• Lycan is presumably town (extrapolating from the Lion read)

HMM IT FEELS LIKE SOMEONE IS MISSING FROM THIS LIST BUT I'M NOT SURE WHO.

[Ümläüt]

Aristophanes, opinions on people who aren't Snake plz?

[Ümläüt]

(Wait, you said BTD was a scumlean)

[Ümläüt]

Why DarkLight is not commenting on any of Umlauts post but is commenting on mine

Maybe it's because he's scum.

I like lynching scum, don't you? A good way to do that would be to vote DarkLight.

[Ümläüt]

Spoiler alert: I make a statement on ASP[...]

A Simple Plan – No strong read either way. His reasoning overall is understandable. Weak town.

Oh, it's all clear now

[Ümläüt]

I'm... actually liking DarkLight's latest posts?

They're coming only after I put as much pressure on him as I could muster, so I have to discount that a bit. Keeping my vote there while I think about this.

[Ümläüt]

Well hopefully he'll pick up more soon. I did like the post of him telling me not to use meta to read him as town. That was pretty towny. I noticed no one gave him credit for that.

He got credit for it the first time he said that, to GL. No need to give him more town points for doing it after it worked the first time.

[Ümläüt]

bad post

VOTE: BTD6_maker

found someone better than Aristophanes/Accountant, and yes, slightly better than GuiltyLion! (for now!)

What's so bad about it? And, given that it's unlikely we're going to build a new wagon up from the ground into a full lynch mob by sunset, what are you hoping to accomplish with this vote?

[Ümläüt]

Everyone, we have 24 hours left. I'm not willing to no-lynch. The wagons are DarkLightA and Aristophanes. Pick one.

[Ümläüt]

It's still all the reasons I gave in 400.

What I like about his new posts is that his reasons for his reads make sense to me and aren't just rehashes of what everyone has already said (though the out-of-order list is kind of hard to follow). I also liked his argument with Vedith where he does seem genuinely annoyed.

Rereading the argument though, I wonder if it's scum distancing. Look at the actual things they're arguing with one another about:

• Vedith is insinuating that DarkLight's read on him is bullshit/fabricated.
  
• DarkLight thinks Vedith is ignoring his directly stated words and misrepresenting his read.

Despite this neither one is scumreading the other. Vedith has DarkLight as town because "he can't be Accountant's partner," and DarkLight has Vedith as neutral because he's "so careless that I can’t help but have a gut townread."

The former I find more striking; if I think someone is fabricating their reads then it follows that I think they're scum. Vedith has to push on DarkLight because he's pushing on everyone, but he seems unwilling to follow through to the obvious conclusion in this case.

[Ümläüt]

Amending 400: DarkLight did in fact start pushing his read on your slot, so scratch that reason. (Of course this was after being called out on it, but it's still better than not doing it.)

[Ümläüt]

Sigh. Not loving the vagueclaim in a setup where Mafia hard-fakeclaiming is dangerous.

But I doubt you're getting lynched today, so JI'll just say I'm looking forward to seeing either that proof or your swinging body tomorrow.

VOTE: Aristophanes

I don't love this wagon but it's better than GL.

[Ümläüt]

Wait, Vedith already left the Aristo wagon, so I can vote whomever I want.

VOTE: A Simple Plan

[Ümläüt]

DarkLight, I'm interested in what you're saying but trying to start a fresh wagon now is a terrible idea. You don't have to actually vote BTD right now just because you're scumreading him.

[Ümläüt]

VOTE: BTD

Because he's not Lion (and may or may not be lyin')

[Ümläüt]

L-1 on BTD6_maker

BTD6 is hyper-concerned with the deadline... but doesn't think a claim is in order. But does think a hammer is in order on Lion. Okay then.

[Ümläüt]

Oh for fuck's sake.

[Ümläüt]

(Was about to unvote but just got ninja'd by Snake.)

If both claims are true then scum could quickhammer, then kill the other PR at night. Not sure whether two unused PRs for one scum is a good trade.

I will hammer Lion if absolutely necessary.

If anyone else has a PR claim, speak up nownownow.

[Ümläüt]

On this clock:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=09:12

Do you have a mafia directly clockwise or counterclockwise of your position?

Answer this plz

[Ümläüt]

If anyone else has a PR claim, speak up nownownow.

NO.

Why not? There are exactly two town PRs.

Though actually I guess this contradicts what I just said (about two PRs for one scum maybe not being worth it). So I'm not so sure of myself there.

[Ümläüt]

UNVOTE: BTD6_maker

We're not lynching him in the absence of a counterclaim.

Intent: GuiltyLion

I've set a timer for a few minutes from deadline at which point I will hammer if I haven't seen a counterclaim and there is no better wagon at L-1. My word as a townie that I will not be the reason for a no-lynch.

[Ümläüt]

I'd like a claim from GuiltyLion

Also, we don't need people claiming at L-4, kthx?

Yes, we do. If you know someone is fakeclaiming you counterclaim, period.

Anyone who doesn't claim PR in their next post forfeits their chance of being believed if they claim later.

[Ümläüt]

Let me rephrase that:

Also, we don't need people claiming townie at L-4, kthx?

(Pst, it's a reference to you umlaut!)

1. I didn't say vanilla townie, I said townie, meaning town-aligned player.
2. Even if I did say vanilla townie, I'm effectively claiming that by not counterclaiming you or DarkLight.

I don't like this post at all, it seems like just trying to Do Town Things without seriously thinking about whether what you're saying is helpful.

Pedit: Let's do it

VOTE: A Simple Plan

[Ümläüt]

I will move my vote to GL at five minutes to deadline if it's still the leading wagon, but I really don't want to lynch him.

[Ümläüt]

I'd hammer Lycan over GL

[Ümläüt]

Fair

VOTE: Lycanfire (L-1)

[Ümläüt]

Before lock I want to say I'm pretty happy with Vedith's reversal on GL here. I think if he was faking his reads he wouldn't be thinking to reevaluate GL's read in particular in light of what's going on right now and would probably have been yelling at people to hammer, not unvoting with so little time left.

[Ümläüt]

Day 2 mylo, awesome.

Obviously, anyone who wasn't around last night needs to say ASAP if they have a counterclaim to DLA.

Should we lynch today?

[Ümläüt]

EBWOP: not last night, but in the last hours of D1.

[Ümläüt]

Actually this is pretty easy from my perspective. Assuming no one counterclaims DLA:

• I'm not scum
  
• DLA isn't scum
  
• I highly doubt Snake or GL is scum

Therefore Aristophanes and ASP are scum.

Pseudovote: ASP

(Don't want to real-vote in mylo until we've talked more.)

[Ümläüt]

Based on the existence of a blocking PR I say we should lynch. If we don't lynch we most likely just lose said PR tonight and don't learn anything from it, giving us no better odds tomorrow. Whereas if we do lynch, and hit scum, with luck our PR can prevent the NK and take us back out of mylo.

Apologies if this is obvious.

[Ümläüt]

I don't get why asking what your action was is suspicious. Seeing BTD's flip makes it clear that you're either a roleblocker or a jailkeeper. Therefore you have an action. Therefore the question is what it was.

(The thing about "saving it" is weird but I don't see how it's scummy-weird, people say dumb things all the time.)

I mean, I think Aristo is scum just by PoE alone, so I don't know why I'm arguing with you, but this doesn't seem like an additional reason to suspect him.

Furthermore, using the RB role as a cop is dangerous as hell because it can't distinguish between a blocked kill and a no kill.

Right, but even if the existence of an RB causes the mafia to play a no-kill gambit, that's a net gain from having an RB as long as we don't just assume your target is scum.

[Ümläüt]

ASP, unless you think it's me or GL.

[Ümläüt]

Well, I guess the problem with this is that Accountant was pretty heavily invested in ASP-scum yesterday. I don't know if Accountant is the sort of player to mercilessly bus their partner D1 for looking scummy.

[Ümläüt]

ASP, this is why you DON'T DISAPPEAR IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY

[Ümläüt]

I know which claim I like better, but I do want to ask a question first.

ASP, what do you think the Mafia power role is?

[Ümläüt]

Snake, he said

don't doubt his reads,

what are you doing

[Ümläüt]

There are still two living players who haven't responded yet, I want to see what they say to this before we vote.

I also want ASP's answer to my question.

[Ümläüt]

I don't want to no-lynch. Eventually we have to lynch one of DLA or ASP, so we may as well do it today.

[Ümläüt]

Snake, how would DLA know there's a roleblocker?

If Mafia has a Strongman then from their perspective it could be any of setups 5, 6, or 7, of which only 7 has a town roleblocker.

If Mafia has a rolecop then from their perspective it could be any of setups 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, or 10, of which only 8 and 9 have a town roleblocker.

So in either case he had a 1/3 chance of being wrong about what to crumb.

Of course at that point he could have just dropped the crumb if he guessed wrong. But even at the time of DLA's hard claim he wouldn't know for sure there's a roleblocker unless the setup is 8; if it were 7, he wouldn't know whether it were 6 or 7.

[Ümläüt]

I would have never bought that as a JK crumb if DLA tried to use it as one, would you?

[Ümläüt]

@Mod: Does Strongman trump Roleblocker?

[Ümläüt]

Also, even if not, a dead DLA only gives us a clear if he announces his target in advance. Which I guess he might as well do.

[Ümläüt]

Oops, I guess I gave away which claim I believe.

VOTE: A Simple Plan

Let's not go to L-1 yet though.

[Ümläüt]

Oh yeah I forgot you're the RB

[Ümläüt]

Umlaut might be scum

I've been pushing for ASP

über alles

since page 3 or so. Do you really think he and I are scum together?

[Ümläüt]

Good point, I should have hammered him then and there, that'd be super pro-town.

[Ümläüt]

Why are you jumping so reactively on this? And what was the point of your post 658

I don't know how to answer this. You're saying I could be scum, I'm saying that doesn't make any sense.

The point of that post was that I don't understand how DarkLight could forget that ASP is claiming roleblocker when that is the central focus of the day. I actually almost unvoted because that really bothered me, but I think there's enough evidence for DLA's claim over ASP's that I'd still rather keep my vote where it is.

[Ümläüt]

I'm not gonna redig through your ISO now because I'm on mobile on the way to work but I remember you pushing 0x40 wagon much harder than ASP wagon and I wanna doublecheck why we couldn't get ASP at deadline

I wanted to get ASP at deadline and voted him pretty close to deadline, but Darklight talked me out of it.

I just looked back at my ISO and I guess I did shift to scumreading Darklight harder than ASP based on 388. So

über alles

is a misstatement, I was happy to lynch him but he didn't go back to being my top choice until after Darklight claimed.

[Ümläüt]

I really didn't like your 658, at all. Reads like casting shade for no reason, jumping on an obvious misstep in phrasing that presumably has nothing to do with alignment. Especially since you don't apparently think it was a genuine slip, then there's no reason to make the post that you did.

Look, exactly one of DLA or ASP is scum. We need to correctly determine which it is. If there is something that should be weighed in those scales, I'm going to point it out even if by itself it's not enough to tip them. If all of us keep quiet about the things we've noticed because individually they're not conclusive, then we are more likely to make a mistake.

If I was 85% sure ASP was scum before that exchange, then afterward I'm more like 75% sure. (I'm pulling these numbers out of my ass but you get the idea.) For DLA not to understand the probabilities ASP gave is also weird because she should have done those same calculations herself at some point and recognized where the numbers were coming from.

[Ümläüt]

(sorry for the misgender)

[Ümläüt]

I'm going to assume DarkLightA did exactly what he said he would do and blocked GuiltyLion.

VOTE: Aristophanes

Nothing will convince me to vote Snake so this is pretty much my only option.

[Ümläüt]

That... that's not actually true.

[Ümläüt]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=09:12

Setup

1 Mafia Goon
1 Mafia PR
2 Town PRs
5 Vanilla Townies

[Ümläüt]

Aristo's sudden not-quite-a-quickhammer looked bad to me after ASP flipped. I suspected he approved of DarkLight's stated plan and wanted to lock it in before he changed his mind or anyone made substantial comments on it.

I still suspect this, but I kind of expected him to pull a no-kill gambit and try to get GuiltyLion lynched, so the fact that DarkLight was actually shot kind of weakens that. But I suppose Aristo could have always gone into night intending a no-kill and then changed his mind for whatever reason.

[Ümläüt]

Man, I'm looking back through Accountant's ISO and I

still

can't see him as scum.

I actually got paranoid for a bit and went to look through Snake's ISO again as well, but while I suppose it's just barely possible that Snake would hard-bus his partner for two days straight, I can't see any reason he would want to shoot Vedith and then DLA, when Vedith was townreading both him and ASP and DLA suspected literally everyone but him. (If I were scum in Snake's position I would likely shoot Lion instead.)

(Too bad, because we don't get to make stupid ASP/snake puns)

[Ümläüt]

This isn't how the Babysitter works btw. Scum had to target BTD that night in order for Vedith to die as well. It's like a reverse Hider.

Yeah, you're right. I forgot about that.

My vote is on you because Snake is blatantly obvtown.

[Ümläüt]

Aristophanes, you yourself pushed me to move my vote off of ASP and onto BTD.

Ninja'd
Ümläüt, GL is very likely to flip town, and DLA just caught BTD in a lie. Vote with is and we have a chance at lynching scum this phase!

(Funny thing, you didn't actually mention ASP at all in this post, yet I was the only one you directly addressed. You had nothing to say to the four people who were actually

on

the GL wagon.)

When I did switch to BTD I said it was because "he's not Lion," which I still maintain was an excellent reason.

I tried

again

to wagon ASP in 568 after Snake and Lion made it clear they would go for that, but I switched to Lycanfire, also for not being Lion, when DLA said

Guys, we're 5 active people here, 2 of whom are unwilling to vote ASP. It's not gonna go through.

[Ümläüt]

*crickets*

[Ümläüt]

A Møøse once bit my sister...

[Ümläüt]

Does she live in Canada?

I actually lived in New England all my life up through last year, I've had to brake for moose on the road a few times.

Looking forward to you explaining why I'm scum. Scum.

[Ümläüt]

I wish I could tell you "Here's a super awesome reason you should just go ahead and hammer Aristo," but I don't have a super awesome reason, just PoE (which is obviously a bit easier from my position with a conftown who isn't me).

I guess if you're 70-80% sure Aristo is scum, you might as well vote if you don't see any argument changing your confidence by more than 20-30%.

[Ümläüt]

I'm kind of unnerved that Aristo hasn't actually voted me. Either he thinks there's a serious chance that Snake is scum (and I would love to hear that case if so), or he's holding out for a chance to quickhammer whatever wagon pops up.

[Ümläüt]

I'll do this tn or tomorrow. Been working and under the weather.

How are you feeling now?

[Ümläüt]

And you'll have it!

Probably not tonight though, my kids have both apparently forgotten how to go to sleep so I'm going to be occupied for a while.

[Ümläüt]

All right, let's go through this point-by-point. Sorry about the length, it takes a wall to rebut a wall.

So, Umlaut is scum.

This is false!

Look at his posts between 53 and 94. Just look at them. They are expert distancing and trying to appear town.

Yes, please go look at them. Since they're so damning you'd think Aristo would quote or at least link them, but nope!

In 58 I ask Lycan to explain his vote on ASP
In 61 I explictly say why I think ASP is scum (and why I'm not voting him)
In 72 and 74 I say why 0x40 is also a good wagon
In 76 I ask GL for links to past games where ASP was lynchbait
In 79 and 94 I actually look at those games and say what I've found.

I assume it's 76 and 79 Aristo is talking about here, so why not just say "posts 76 and 79" instead of asking you to go through two pages?

He went back to read old ASP games, which is something I've seen get townread in the past, especially when it turns out the one he did it on is scum. [But] what did he gain from this reread? Not a hell of a lot. Just that he could vote there, but could also vote 0x40. Like, he is trying to apply pressure to the wagon without voting it, and while softly pushing people onto another.

The first sentence of this accusation is hilarious. It's basically saying I'm scum for doing something that's usually a towntell.

Reread those posts and you'll see I was arguing that ASP's meta is

not

exonerating evidence as GL suggested. That is:

• I say ASP would be a good lynch
  
• GL says "We should be cautious because he's lynchbait"
  
• I
  reject
  his evidence for that and argue that no, we
  don't
  need to be especially cautious

That series of posts could just as well be used to make a case that I'm town and trying to use them to prove I'm scum smacks of motivated reasoning.

Hi, Mav.

I'd like to know who if anyone is townreading ASP right now and why. Obviously if you think he's town you should be trying to keep us from mislynching; but just as importantly, if his wagon goes to a lynch unchallenged, it will be hard for town to draw much associational data from it regardless of the flip.

This is hard posturing. He is saying "ASP is scummy" without saying it, and trying to goad people into townreading the slot (either so he can scumread them on "associatives" or to avoid the lynch). It appears that Umlaut had little faith in ASP and decided to set their distance up early to avoid complications.

How does saying "Does anyone townread ASP?" goad people into townreading ASP? I was trying to get a sense because no one had actually said they thought ASP was probably town at that point, which makes it hard to do much analysis of the wagon if he flips. You're damn right I wanted to form reads based on ASP associatives, just without the quotation marks.

107 follows as another subtle defense. He doesn't shoot down main reasons for ASP scumreads (probably because he already knew his alignment) and instead is picking at all the small things to keep damage to a minimum.

This is a major misrep. I notice once again you chose not to quote this post.

People were

townreading

ASP for his 100 (specifically "Guilty, please don't defend me") because it didn't make sense for scum. I responded that it doesn't make sense for town

or

scum. Therefore it's not a reason to change reads on him. This is maybe not obvious when reading the post in isolation because the last sentence is sort of dissonant with that, but it should be clear when reading what I was responding to. Once again the effect of this post was (ideally) to prevent ASP from getting undue town cred.

This progression makes no sense to me:

[stuff]

He totally disregards the mention of ASP and focuses, once again, on 0x40, who is probably the easiest counterwagon to push at this point.
Which, might I add, is exactly what he does. His reads list in 155 has Scum!ASP and 0x40 in the bottom tier, but 0x40, who has done nothing of value yet, if the one he wants to lynch. This is pushed hard through the next posts, and all of this just happens to directly follow the VC where ASP is at L-1. Probably set him into panic mode where a final push against the ASP lynch couldn't hurt, especially since he's been deemed scum anyway by Umlaut at this point. The push is continued on DLA for consistency's sake I imagine.

The mention of ASP you're talking about is GL telling us to stop talking so much about ASP and talk more about our other reads. Which I did. How is this hard to follow? You've even quoted me saying that "too easy"

is not

a good reason not to lynch ASP.

I love the misleadingly true statement "happens to directly follow the VC where ASP is at L-1." The VC he refers to is 150. ASP had been at L-1 since 70. There was a votecount posted in 77, almost immediately after which I said it was a good wagon and I was happy with a lynch on it. Then, three pages and three IRL days later, I panicked? Cool story, bro.

[post=Upon the "vagueclaim" by DLA, he votes me, then ASP immediately after. I find this weird. Like, very much so. He was distancing from him with this vote, as I mentioned before, and didn't push for the lynch. If he'd really wanted it, he'd have brought up his prior case again and tried to make happen. Instead, we get nothing of the sort.]Upon the "vagueclaim" by DLA, he votes me, then ASP immediately after. I find this weird. Like, very much so. He was distancing from him with this vote, as I mentioned before, and didn't push for the lynch. If he'd really wanted it, he'd have brought up his prior case again and tried to make happen. Instead, we get nothing of the sort.[/post]
We were under extreme deadline pressure. The last few hours of the day are not a time to try and change people's hearts, they're a time to negotiate based on their existing reads. Everyone who has played more than two games of Mafia knows this.

After the BTD claim, he became very interested in the positions of the PRs (likely to try and figure it out in relation to ASP's) as seen in 540. This directly follows a fake town-slip in 538 where he tries to pull a third PR claim out (knowing it would never happen).
I don't know what you're accusing me of here. I said one thing about the position of the PRs and it was "Answer DarkLight's question." Re. the "fake town-slip," let's take away the presumption that I'm faking and see what's left: "This directly follows a town-slip where he tries to pull a third PR claim out." How is this even an accusation?

568 is damning.

Uh-oh! Let's see what it is then.

He throws shade at our claimed PR DLA making a vanity vote on ASP. This sets him up to go with the flow the next day when ASP set up to counterclaim. This was obviously premeditated and organized here.

So you thought Darklight's post there was good? Or that I shouldn't have voted ASP? Which of the two things is scummy, calling bad posts bad or voting for scum?

ASP, this is why you DON'T DISAPPEAR IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY

This is either an extremely badly faked reaction or scum frustration at their partner being let out. Or both. Probably both.

This is just an assertion so I can just respond with an assertion. No, it's not.

Post-claim, 629 is also quite fake. He "knows which claim he likes better" but waits until he knows which way everyone is going before he actually makes the vote. Because of this he can still get townpoints for "trying to get info out of him before making it obvious" while actually playing it slow so he can gauge the town and possibly hailmary save his partner.

Yes, this was a pretty clever plan. The cleverest part was how I then went and slipped that I liked DLA's claim better and voted ASP, before anyone actually weighed in except Snake (who anyone could have predicted would keep his vote on ASP).

He then thrown shade at DLA for forgetting ASP was counterclaiming RB, and uses his well set up ASP pushes from earlier to clear him of the negative connotations of it! This is really good scumplay, Umlaut. I really am impressed by it. He continues pushing against the lynch slowly in 677 after being shut down for being called out in 669 for exaggerating his earlier push on ASP. This is where he also shifts the blame onto DLA again. This is so scummy it hurts.

He's distancing, trying to avoid the lynch, and trying to get townpoints for the lynch all at once! This is scum caught in a hard spot trying all angles!

I would appreciate your admiration a lot more if you were mistaken town instead of lying scum.

I'm not going to apologize for trying to make sure we lynch the right person in mylo.

Fastforward to today.
I could talk about a couple things, but the main two posts that are the worst things are the following:

I wish I could tell you "Here's a super awesome reason you should just go ahead and hammer Aristo," but I don't have a super awesome reason, just PoE (which is obviously a bit easier from my position with a conftown who isn't me).

I guess if you're 70-80% sure Aristo is scum, you might as well vote

if you don't see any argument changing your confidence by more than 20-30%.

I'm kind of unnerved that Aristo hasn't actually voted me. Either he thinks there's a serious chance that Snake is scum (and I would love to hear that case if so), or he's holding out for a chance to quickhammer whatever wagon pops up.

The first is a call for GL to hammer me and end the game before I can respond. This Is Scum!
Town would want to have me come in here and talk. Town would want to be 100% sure. Scum just want that hammer to fall so they can claim their prize!

You are completely failing to acknowledge that I am (nearly) 100% sure, because I am the only other suspect. I know I'm not scum, I know GL isn't scum, and I'm confident Snake isn't scum. Therefore it's you. I don't need to hear your case to know that.

Good use of bolding by the way. I say "If you don't believe anything will make Aristophanes stop being your top scumread, you should hammer," and you report this as my saying "You should hammer." I can't be mad at you for this, you're just trying to win, but it's a misrep plain and simple.

The second is a hard discredit. He wants me to make a vote so he can call it scum. He is pushing again for the game to end before I can quickhammer, which there is no chance of me even doing. These posts are the nails in his coffin and blatantly agitated scum who wants to end the game!

You want to know why I made that post?

Because no one had posted in over 24 hours and it was the only thing I could think of to discuss.

I would ask you to explain exactly how I'm supposed to discredit you by getting you to vote me, given that you have no one else to vote, but of course the answer would just be bullshit, so there's no need.

[Ümläüt]

Go read my interaction with the ASP wagon on Day 1 again, GL. There were opportunities galore to drop my read on him.

You said it felt like the wagon was going too fast. I said "Yeah, but that's fine because the points against him are just that good."

You pointed out that ASP was frequent lynchbait. I asked for proof instead of taking you at your word.

You provided your proof in the form of links to some past games. I read the games (already more work than I would bother with as scum) and said no, none of the ways he was scumread in those games applies here and everything he did still looks scummy to me.

ASP got a bunch of townpoints for telling Lion to stop defending him. I said those townpoints were undeserved.

In 125 and 126 I argued against the entire concept of a wagon being "too easy," throwing away the best argument I could have made against lynching ASP.

When we were in deadline crunch I repeatedly tried to restart the ASP wagon until it was 100% clear it wasn't going through that day. So instead I (pseudo)voted ASP right out of the gate the next day.

Honestly I was a bit concerned that if ASP did flip town I would have to worry about being mislynched for pushing so hard on him. I never could have imagined I would have to answer for not pushing hard enough. If you think I'm scum based on my ASP associatives, you deserve the loss.

[Ümläüt]

I assume it's 76 and 79 Aristo is talking about here, so why not just say "posts 76 and 79" instead of asking you to go through two pages?

I meant to say 79 and 94, not 76 and 79

[Ümläüt]

Lion, where did you go?

[Ümläüt]

Well, I'm town...

[Ümläüt]

Well poop.

I'd defend myself for getting it wrong but it seems like everyone else got it wrong too. Normally having like 50% more posts than anyone else in the game is a pretty reliable indicator.

[Ümläüt]

Hey, I'm hardly in a position to criticize you for thinking I'm scum after the way I pushed to lynch you D1.

Thanks for the troll, Snake, it made Aristo's flip a nice surprise!

[Ümläüt]

Actually...

Having ASP perform the NK fooled me—I've been cheering on an Umlaut lynch all day long in the dead thread. Sorry Umlaut :s

I don't understand how the two parts of this sentence relate to one another. Why does having ASP perform the NK point to me?

[Ümläüt]

I enjoyed it too, you put up a good fight.

Did you and ASP plan the counterclaim together? I was pretty surprised by how ill-thought-out it seemed for coming a full night after DLA's claim. I guess if you expected to lose at that point it wasn't a bad Hail Mary attempt, but did you really think it would work?