Micro 648: Mystery Box Mafia - 't is gedaan!

[gigabyteTroubadour]

VOTE: House

let's just wagon whoever this is

[gigabyteTroubadour]

tbh i can't bring myself to vote house anymore... the passion behind that wagon, it calls for sheeping

VOTE: Flames682

Let's just wagon whoever this is

[gigabyteTroubadour]

ngl house this is why i love you as a player

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Scum claiming ascetic is usually a terrible idea whether they are really ascetic or not, so I'm inclined to townread Guilty for that alone. I might want to double check the mystery box mechanics for something later, though. Regardless, getting generally good vibes from his posts, too

Flames might actually be the fastest scumread I've picked up in a game, I don't know if the other people on the wagon can say the same.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Scum claiming ascetic is usually a terrible idea whether they are really ascetic or not

Why exactly is that a terrible idea in this setup?

I meant in general. If Guilty is scum lying, it'll be easy to disprove and raise a few eyebrows if someone investigates him. If he's scum but telling the truth, he's taking away the utility of a very powerful passive ability (i.e., the ability to waste an investigative power of a townie). Doing something that only hurts scum to do and gives little towncred seems like a waste to do as scum.

Plus, if he were going for the "fakeclaim NU" gambit as town or scum, miller is always the better choice because there's no downside to it as either alignment.

As for in this set-up? My brain's been kind of foggy lately and I forgot how the mystery box works, so I should probably take a look at the rules and see if that affects anything (was going to start actually thinking for this game tomorrow but you responded now so) ^^;

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Read the mechanics again, it's probably a town claim

If guilty chooses to discard his role, someone else can take it and learn of its existence.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i haven't read the thread in a while and i'm kind of having a tough time irl so give me a moment here

pre-emptively calling a v/la but i haven't worked out a time

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Why Maruchan over Guilty or House? They were getting in as many thoughts in during twilight but they didn't have the scrutiny of a lolhammer around them. Weird NK.

Tempted to sheep NJAC but let's not lolhammer.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

*sheep onto

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Scum claiming ascetic is usually a terrible idea whether they are really ascetic or not, so I'm inclined to townread Guilty for that alone.

I disagree.

Scum have nothing to lose by claiming ascetic. It's not like it paints a target on their head for investigative roles since... investigatives don't get results.

What makes you think it's so town when there's no downside to claiming it?

I think the utility of scum ascetics is the fact that an investigative can waste a night if they're targetted. Claiming takes a person's chance of being targetted away and therefore takes away the utility of a pretty good modifier.

What was it you thought we saw about Guilty earlier?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I guess because Maruchan looked town? He didn't do anything else, but he was my strongest town read.

I guess I agree to disagree. Maruchan was a townread of mine too but I think Guilty and House are townier.

Still, I lack experience and I'd assume lolhammering isn't exactly a towntell but that kill makes me think I'm wrong so *shrug*

[gigabyteTroubadour]

What was it you thought we saw about Guilty earlier?

Where? It's been a couple days and I barely remember breakfast.

haha same tho

gigaByte I can see either way, the townread of me is a little too easy but the posting feels relatively genuine on first read

I was inclined to agree with your opinion of the easy townread until I thought something else.

If she's thinking what I'm thinking she's thinking, then i think her thought is town.

I think.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

oh no i wasn't thinking that

but that's actually pretty neat.

i do have ~reasons~ that i should really slap myself in the face for and stop that always make me townread D1 NU claims (especially ascetics). i also have never seen scum ascetics actually claim their role before as if it were a town NU and I really should go dig for counterevidence if i'm ever up to it. it just seems like incorrect play to do though

[gigabyteTroubadour]

negative utility

stuff like millers, ascetics, PGOs... stuff that can fuck towns up if not claimed properly

[gigabyteTroubadour]

it just seems like incorrect play to do though

Don't get stuck on correct/incorrect play.

Town always assumed optimal play from scum, but scum has flexibility to deviate so there is value in doing so.

Valid point, but I really do think Guilty is town by play anyway, with or without the claim.

Any last minute questions before I try to log off for real? <= that's at anyone btw

[gigabyteTroubadour]

<3

looking foward to RyanK's posting tbh

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Ryan, you explained your hop from Guilty to NJAC, but why go back to Guilty?

Actually if you could walk me through your entire thought process from today a bit more, that'd be nice. I don't think crazy vote hopping like that is extremely alignment indicative, but it's kind of strange to me and I'd like to know where it's coming from.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

All roles are randomly generated. Generally speaking it's a role + modifier, though you can end up vanilla and / or with no mods.

hm...

Does having two ascetics mean that one is town and the other scum? I doubt that personally because of this, and I can see Ryan being a relatively new player not knowing to claim ascetic day 1. Doesn't make me want to townread him, of course, but I don't see this as a cop guilty.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I can see Ryan being a relatively new player not knowing to claim ascetic day 1. Doesn't make me want to townread him, of course, but I don't see this as a cop guilty.

Why are you conjecturing instead of letting Ryank explain?

i got jumpy, still trying to learn when to shut up

ryan is kind of an oddity to me right now and i wanted him to answer my question before we started lynching him. i wanted to make it clear that i don't think guilty has a guilty on him and the way the vote was placed made it seem like one, so piling on votes because of an interesting result might not be the smartest move.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Ryan, you explained your hop from Guilty to NJAC, but why go back to Guilty?

Actually if you could walk me through your entire thought process from today a bit more, that'd be nice. I don't think crazy vote hopping like that is extremely alignment indicative, but it's kind of strange to me and I'd like to know where it's coming from.

Here

I'm not saying he's definitely scum, he could just be cagey, but he's definitely giving the most scummy pings so far relative to the other posts, especially given a town!Flames

I've played with Not_Mafia a lot. I have experience with him myself. The idea that he'd react in a significant way to a lone RVS vote is a joke.

You have only played with Non_Mafia at the most 5 times. Why did you claim you play with Not_Mafia a lot.

VOTE: NJAC

OK, while I disagree with pretty much that entire vote (reasoning and target), I can at least see that there's a thought process behind it...

But what I found really weird was how you were bouncing between NJAC and GuiltyLion specifically, who, to me at least, are in completely different sides of the group dynamic. Scumreading both of them as a scumteam just seems very unusual and I'm not exactly sure what your exact reads on those slots are, so I would appreciate some clarity there. Is NJAC scum? GuiltyLion? Both of them as a team? Both of them but individually? Neither?

Also, your last NJAC vote was a reaction test? What did you think of NJAC's reaction, then?

Scum claiming ascetic is usually a terrible idea whether they are really ascetic or not, so I'm inclined to townread Guilty for that alone. I might want to double check the mystery box mechanics for something later, though. Regardless, getting generally good vibes from his posts, too

Flames might actually be the fastest scumread I've picked up in a game, I don't know if the other people on the wagon can say the same.

Why did you think flames was scum?

Nothing too nuanced or that I would have pushed a case on, but I felt his reactions to House's nitpickiness were kind of submissive and like they were trying to please House to get him to stop, which I think is scummy because it shows a higher-than-normal interest in looking good to other people. Him "admitting" his RVS vote was bullshit was just sad, and when I saw that post I thought to myself, "If he can't stand by his RVS vote, how the hell is he going to stand by his actual votes?", you know? I like RVS because it helps me see what people's mindset is when they enter the game on a completely empty canvas, and I can't really townread someone trying to overjustify a meaningless vote to stop incessant questions.

btw i fell asleep like instantly after writing my last post D1, so this read probably would have changed with more interactions throughout the day. notice his tone shift after Maru hammers, for example. probably about to sleep right now too so uh... if anyone has anything for me i'll probably be getting to it tomorrow. sorry for being on so infrequently by my standards

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I would say NJAC isn't scum judging by the reaction. I thought GuiltyLion as scum with him (I know, it's a very unusual thought), but I don't think he is scum because of one of his posts.

I don't really see how 183 is a town reaction. Explain?

@NJAC, what's the benefit you get from asking someone if there was scum on an RVS wagon...? There's probably at least 1 scum in any arbitrary grouping of 4 people (or 3 in the wagoner's pov), that seems like a pointless question to ask.

@Expedience, what was the self-contradiction in 222? Also, the phone I use when phoneposting sometimes freaks out when I make new tabs, so I couldn't check the OP when I was writing that post and I forgot the rules while I was writing that post. So, that was in fact important (at least to me) to state... NK spec is also a big part of my playstyle, if I didn't dismiss my own NKA in Open 646 we would have won that game much earlier because the nightkills made absolutely no sense with the theoretical agendas the scummier players would have had if they were scum. I'll admit I made no conclusion from the Maruchan kill (yet) but that's why I wanted to ask people's thoughts about it.

also house you're not getting mislynched... I don't get why people think it's scummy of you to not want to comment on NJAC vs. Guilty because I'm doing the same thing for the same reason (again, trying to learn when to shut up). Although, I don't really get how Expedience's read on you is sketchy... I think it's still early enough in the game to have gutreads. Let's talk about that? I still think he's town and your read on him shifted really quickly.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Not exactly the vibe I got from 183. If anything, I got the opposite vibes from that (i.e. he does mind being lynched), but it's completely null to me.

What gave you second thoughts?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

how is house all over the place??

[gigabyteTroubadour]

house can we talk a little bit about expedience more? Why is he scum now? I don't see anything wrong with having a gutread on D2 after a lolhammer. I've honestly had gutreads for much longer...

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think House is town because he's so eager.

He also was in Biology with you, so I assumed that that had some impact on his gutread on your eagerness.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

GuiltyLion, if you are the kind of player who cares this early in the gamestate, who's NJAC's partner? Because right now with my reads his partner (Not_Mafia) makes zero sense, but that tends to happen when you use PoE to find partners.

I'm pretty sure I'm townreading actual scum right now but I can't make heads or tails as to who that is.

I think House is town because he's so eager.

He also was in Biology with you, so I assumed that that had some impact on his gutread on your eagerness.

Where do you get that assumption?

Seems like common sense to presume that if you've played with someone in the past, you have an idea with what they are like. If he thinks that you're town because of your eagerness, then that implies he thinks your posting here is different from yours in Biology.

I should probably read Biology but I have bigger Mafia priorities that i forgot to attend to.... (and a life) :///

p-edit: ryan the time for what

[gigabyteTroubadour]

OH DAMN

don't sass me like that lmfao

[gigabyteTroubadour]

It would have been a better idea to let Expedience answer the questions concerning him as he should know best.

But House was specifically asking me about why I felt that way. Expedience can't answer 270.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I wanted to see who House would pick. It's not pointless because House (a scumread of me) would have to pick a name, and then I can get some associative info.

i still disagree, there isn't really that much of a reason to believe that, say, Ryan's vote is scummier than guilty's vote. Plus, that wagon has most of my townreads on it (I'm townreading House the least out of the 3 other people on it but I still think he's town) so I'm having a hard time saying that anyone on it was scum. It's a weird restriction of people, too.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Also, are you town reading Guilty only because of his claim, or is it because of something else?

Clear, sheepable thought processes are things I townread and I think Guilty's posting fits that pretty well.

I also felt like his activity during twilight was far more likely to come from town, town has much more reason to squeeze in as much thought process and scumhunting in a day and Maru's lolhammer took away a lot of our time. Sure, pro-town =/= town, but I don't even think I would have done anything besides ask Flames if he was really town.

Counter-question, how has your read on Guilty been developing?

The only thing that's bothering me (about all of my reads) is that I come up with a scumteam of NJAC/Not_Mafia and that doesn't really make much sense to me, which is why I'm waiting for Guilty to give some input on that since it's been a while since he's posted anything. I'm pretty sure I'm wrong on one of my townreads but I haven't really had the time to decide which one it is. Ryan and Guilty are stronger, so it's a toss-up between Expedience and House.

Also House, why are you still voting Ryan? I think he's pretty clearly town, even if his play is a bit unconventional.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I can tell you right now that NJAC is a VT, which is why I've been eyeballing you for a while.

I also want NJAC to confirm this.

I'm trying to process the implication of this claim still. Useful posts coming later.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I really do not see any contradiction in House's ISO and his Neapolitan claim when considering the mod error, so I'm believing it. if someone still disagrees I'd like them to point out where

Also, I just realized that Maru claimed vanilla D1, so I'm thinking that the nightkill was made to give more momentum to the NJAC mislynch, since Maru didn't really express any opinion on NJAC during twilight. Since NJAC is now conftown for all intents and purposes (he can still be House's scumbuddy, but I'd prefer a scum!House lynch first), I'm going to have to give Guilty a second look when I reread. House might be scum but picking town!NJAC as an inspect is really weird to do since confirming him as vanilla is derailing an otherwise mislynch.

In terms of reads. Ryan is obvtown, NJAC is psuedoclear, and I know I'm town... House picking NJAC as an inspect is more likely than not town-motivated, so even without scumreads scum are probably in {Guilty, Expedience, Not_Mafia}. ez game ez money $$

also njac what is your secret to sorting Not_Mafia? i'm using poe but I'm cringing as i do it so uh

[gigabyteTroubadour]

He thought that this was a valid result, and that this made NJAC vanilla town, not because he understood his role (he thought he was vanilla cop), but because he didn't think goon counted as vanilla

Not true, 209.

I absolutely believe what House is saying about his NJAC vote by the way. I'll even make a timeline and attempt to presume exactly WHEN House contacted Smeagol about it. I don't get why it wouldn't make sense.

will see if anything else warrants a response while not phoneposting

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Spoiler: general timeline of House's read on NJAC

93, 96, 99, 101

Day 1, House has pretty much no read on NJAC and dismisses GuiltyLion's push. The combination of 96 and 99 gives me the vibe that House is more interested in why GuiltyLion is pushing NJAC rather than looking into NJAC himself, since House finds 92 interesting but doesn't care for the rest of GL's push.

134

House's vote on NJAC here feels more like a D1 push you make when you find what someone said or did interesting rather than scummy. It's a vote with the intention of sorting.

163

House is talking about NJAC like he town or nullreads him. It's also an interesting question to ask someone you're sheeping and might otherwise look contradictory (following them while questioning), but looks to me that he's, again, sorting a slot.

168

House is under the impression that Neapolitans get Vanilla/Not Vanilla results. Nothing to really say about this other than to acknowledge it.

186

Now House is starting to talk to NJAC like he scumreads him. I presume that this comes from the fact that he dislikes NJAC's push on Expedience, the read and tone transition at least makes sense to me with what has been happening in the thread.

191

So while House is scumreading NJAC, he's sitting out of the push because he's still sorting him.

209

House's read on NJAC has been relatively fluid and weak, which makes since given the night action result House claims he has ("vanilla" is completely not alignment indicative).

211

And now Expedience calls House out on his mistake concerning Neapolitans. After this, notice the complete lack of discussion on NJAC after this point in House's ISO. I'm assuming at this time, House is PM'ing Smeagol and asking for clarification on what happened.

308

Read this post carefully. House is literally saying that he has an inno on NJAC and is trying to derail Guilty's push on him. This coming out of the blue actually makes

sense

to me... He probably received the mod's PM around this time and now knows for sure that NJAC is town. Reminds me of what Guilty said earlier about innos, and how that change in reads can look awkward.

315

And House outs his result right here...

321

This is totally something House would do btw, reminds me of when he used me as bait in my newbie. Basically, I jumped onto a wagon that House started pushing and then House started "tunneling" onto me (his top townread that game) to see if anyone else would sheep on. The idea behind the gambit was clever, but I saw through it and that was evident because of how I defended myself. Basically House would totally vote his townreads with ulterior motives when he's town and I see the merit behind what he did this game.

356

House tells us here that his interpretation of his "Vanilla" result changed as he was posting, which makes sense with his ISO:

at 163, House is talking about NJAC like he believes he's town, so it's presumable that this is when he thought "Vanilla" meant VT. Then in 186, his language implies a scumread, matching up with his realization he mentioned in 356 and matches up with 209 chronologically. We can assume the mod correction came after 209, as House's language returns to that of a townread in 308.

Point is, you can actually follow the exact transition of House's thought process wrt to his night actions in the thread. There is NOTHING that contradicts his claim in his actions.

This feels like an extremely exploitative push from Expedience, since there's everything in the thread to back up House, yet he keeps pushing on what seems to be a genuine misunderstanding in mod-communications.

VOTE: Expedience

Consider this the stance I'm taking, Expedience. also your push on me was pretty lacking, i got you scumread me but where was the convincing people? the questioning of me? it didn't feel genuine.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@gigabyte: you didn't answer this:

For the sake of trying a different angle and given that you town read the whole wagon, from those who didn't vote Flames who do you think are scum and why?

N_M is literally unreadable. I would guess it's Expedience because I didn't like his approach to the House lynch. basically though my best guess for a team is {N_M, Expedience}.

I really don't understand how House can be scum with anyone besides you, by the way. Your mislynch was so easy to push, why does he claim a Neapolitan result on you so awkwardly if you're not his buddy?

i've been like super disconnected to this game and i'm really sorry for that. half of that is being overgamed and the other is just real life.

I'm currently leaning gigabyte and would lynch him today because I do find his hard-defense of House to be pretty suspect and forced. I feel in his defense of House he is set against the conclusion of my (and your) arguments about scum!House first, and then justifying his conclusion after it's made.

first of all i'm not a he and i'm also a terrible lynch today. kill me tomorrow.

what do you mean i'm "set against the conclusion of [the] arguments about scum!House first"? I'm townreading him and I think a good deal of the stuff pushed against him because of his result was total horseshit, of course I'm going to push against it.

since guilty mentioned it, i don't really know how to address 318, which is why i've been "ignoring it" (basically i think house made really shitty value calls and wasn't actively trying to misrep you). but actually, at this point, i don't think i have to counter it. here's why: i'll vote house.

the game is basically solved fmpov.

I'm town.

House+NJAC pretty much HAS to be the scumteam if House or NJAC are scum. Unless someone gives me a valid reason for scum!House to derail an NJAC mislynch that really easily could have gone through, I'm not considering any other team with House. It's an idiotic scumplan and all it did was make his slot look terrible if House is scum and NJAC town.

Ryan is obviously town. Guilty is probably town too, but I'm less sure about him.

So basically the scumteam is either {Expedience, N_M} or {House, NJAC}. Literally one lynch is needed to solve that if I'm right about this. We should lynch between {N_M, House}, I think, since it's deadline and those are lynches that can happen. N_M instead of Expedience because pretty much everyone can be plopped into a scumteam with him and I'm pretty sure everyone's reading him via PoE, but he's a low information vote regardless.

VOTE: House
L-2

Fine with voting my own townread here for the sake of deadline. If he flips town, then I can't see how the scumteam isn't {Expedience, N_M}. If he flips scum, then we get a free mislynch we can burn on me since I was practically House's bodyguard and the most obvious partner, I wouldn't want to make LYLO at that point. I have no foreseeable issue with either scenario. Basically I don't see GL or Ryan flipping scum, and NJAC's alignment is determined by this flip. I'd say the risk is worth it.

again i'm really sorry i pretty much gave up this game, i barely played and regardless of how accurate my reads may end up i did a shit job playing and just never really got into it.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

it's cool

why is my reasoning town-oriented though?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and can you talk to me about why scum!House derails town!NJAC's mislynch?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

since vax isn't hammering himself, it looks like i'm today's lynch

i'm an

even night bodyguard

which is why i've been adamant about lynching me

tomorrow

... i can literally confirm myself as town if i predict the nightkill correctly tonight.

responding to other posts now

[gigabyteTroubadour]

then lynch me tomorrow if it's not resolved

this isn't hard

(still typing actual post)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

and can you talk to me about why scum!House derails town!NJAC's mislynch?

I'm guessing House did figure out that NJAC was a VT somehow, and thought that "clearing" NJAC would give him enough towncred to survive today. I also don't think NJAC was very likely to be lynched at the time of House's 315 - I had already moved my vote to House and I don't think most other people were expressing a firm desire to lynch NJAC. He had zero votes at the time.

I feel like it had the opposite effect though and I would imagine House would expect that to happen if he were a scum neapolitan. The confusion over his result is exactly what started the House push in the first place, I don't think as scum he'd deliberately bring that attention to himself (he would know that, if NJAC is not his partner, that a "vanilla" result means VT regardless of what the mod sent).

You have a fair point on NJAC's lynch dissolving at the point he claimed though.

and if you thought House was scum, this would look like bussing "oh this person i was hard defending the entire day? lol they make sense as scum with another player so imma vote them"

ignoring that this is a complete misrep of why i'm voting vax's slot

unless you guys are willing to compromise on expedience (lol) or n_m (maybe) then i have to vote for someone i townread

I don't like GB's 470. I agree with what Expedience said in 471 about it. Aditionally I know I'm town, so I don't think House's slot is scum, because him claiming his results on me as scum doesn't look like good play.

@GB: why House over N_M (or someone else) if you're town reading his slot? I'm not buying your excuses of info and deadline. I see your jump on House's slot opportunistic.

N_M feels like a useless lynch. if he flips scum, then great, but if he flips town then we learn absolutely nothing. In a perfect world I'd lynch Expedience, but I don't think I can sell his lynch in 7 hours. at this point i'm willing to lynch N_M though

i was also townreading all of the other slots that were on the table as lynches today so i don't see why vax is any different

there's also the fact that a vaxslot townflip is pretty damning evidence that expedience is scum. kind of what i'm anticipating here.

but yeah i guess jumping onto one vote when there were bigger wagons is just really opportunistic. got me there.

then lynch me tomorrow if it's not resolved

this isn't hard

(still typing actual post)

And send us into LYLO?

we're in lylo tomorrow if you lynch me today, actually

i doubt that this ends in a town win regardless but if we can get both of our slots to flip then there might actually be a shot at winning.

like if i were literally any other role i'd be self-hammering here but i am literally confirmable town

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i mean

i get why i was mislynched and i guess everyone has their first

BUT I LITERALLY ROLLED EVEN-NIGHT WATCHER

seriously though i'm sorry for the shitty play. i thought fakeclaiming would get the lynch off of me and let me use my investigation without being nightkilled (i figured straight-up claiming would just get me shot) so sadhfkj;asdfas

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i still think vax is town

ryan and guilty are still townreads

i think n_m should be lynched in lylo first. i wouldn't be shocked if i was wrong about expedience but i really can't see anyone else as scum

[gigabyteTroubadour]

dunno

weird gambits and being scummy fits house's townplay to a T

scum!house is usually nice and well townread for making a lot of posts

[gigabyteTroubadour]

plus vax's "scum are in the middle of the wagon" shitck feels newbtownie

[gigabyteTroubadour]

shitck

lol

shtick

ebwop

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Giggles can read me Ryan. She doesn't need your oh so expert advice.

lmao i'm shit at this game, sorry for basically gamethrowing

scumteam did a pretty good job but that d1 lolhammer made the job easy