Micro 644: Flavorless Mafia - Game Over

[shannon]

Hi everyone <3

[shannon]

Sure, let's go with feelings.

I feel like this might be the game where I finally get a win as town. Fingers crossed!

[shannon]

VOTE: Meow Mix because I don't know what that is but it's cute. Meow meow meow meow meow meow meow

[shannon]

Just noticed that Elias has been on this site for over 10 years. Happy Anniversary Elias!

[shannon]

I don't have any thoughts on CR's vote, other than it's RVS.

I don't actually get how people have reads early on, so I am neutral about yours.

[shannon]

What gave you the impression they voted you randomly?

And if you don't get how I arrived at my reads, why not ask?

"BTD/Tenshii/Rach/grapes townblock. Vibes taht I could explain but you wouldn't appreciate.

Meowmix's slot has an aura of town -- for moonlogic reasons"

These points make it seem like you don't really want to explain. But by all means, do.

[shannon]

What gave you the impression they voted you randomly?

And if you don't get how I arrived at my reads, why not ask?

"BTD/Tenshii/Rach/grapes townblock. Vibes taht I could explain but you wouldn't appreciate.

Meowmix's slot has an aura of town -- for moonlogic reasons"

These points make it seem like you don't really want to explain. But by all means, do.

You didn't answer the question. I didn't vote randomly.

OK, I'll try again. You voted me because I said I hoped this game would be my first town win, and you thought that was suss. To me, it may as well be random, you got a vibe from an offhand comment, and voted based on it. I don't have any strong feelings about that, it seems a reasonable thing to do in early game.

[shannon]

I'm townreading grapes for being high-energy psychotic and pulling reads from where no reads ought to have been. Is he always like that?

It seems like an act that a player would have to commit to all the time, or else it'd be a really obvious town or scum tell.

[shannon]

Finally holy hell I was gonna say shannon how did you not find that read strange?

Mostly because of the ones who have acknowledged its existence unprompted.

Couple that with the fact that yes, no posts, and it's more likely to be a town-slot.

I didn't look at your reads in any detail because to me, it's way too early to be having any. So you town read a slot that you think will replace out, at this point, that's kind of meaningless.

[shannon]

Apologies for the wall, it's Saturday AM and I'm catching up with yesterday

[shannon]

What gave you the impression they voted you randomly?

And if you don't get how I arrived at my reads, why not ask?

"BTD/Tenshii/Rach/grapes townblock. Vibes taht I could explain but you wouldn't appreciate.

Meowmix's slot has an aura of town -- for moonlogic reasons"

These points make it seem like you don't really want to explain. But by all means, do.

You didn't answer the question. I didn't vote randomly.

CR's response here pings me a little bit. Why bother to push me to answer the question, isn't it implied - I already said I thought we were in RVS, which would make most (if not all) votes by definition, random. VOTE: ComparingRealities.

[shannon]

Quick V/LA post.

Can't remember honestly been a long weekend.

But that isn't pressing at the moment. We need to be running up shannon.

VOTE: grapes

Also a reminder - this set-up is the little brother of Nearly Vanilla (Doc plus JK plus VTs against 3 scum) and that scum have some basic tools they will want to employ given they have no innate powers to thwart the Docs.

1. Drive as many wagons to claim Day 1. Should be self-explanatory why this is scum beneficial play.
2. Play as proactively as possible to earn Town cred. Being able, as scum, to catch Night protection is effectively just as good as having a Roleblocker.
3. Push as many players as possible to be super expository to assist in PR hunting. Town Docs have a tendency to want to hang back and not lead the Town generally. In this set-up with so players that is a roadmap for scum to find you. Don't allow scum to sniff you out via passive posting in this game.

Magna's three points here point to Grapes in a big way. Grapes seems to be genuine in his pushes on me, even though they're misguided. I've got these two down as town for now.

[shannon]

VOTE: Shaddowez to encourage participation by the new Meow Mix.

[shannon]

Magna's three points here point to Grapes in a big way. Grapes seems to be genuine in his pushes on me, even though they're misguided. I've got these two down as town for now.

This is tossing shade and townreading someone with a fake thought process.

Also, why's Magna town?

Let me be a bit clearer: Magna's points about 'what scum do' could not have pointed at you more directly. It's almost like he checked on your posts and made a list of three things you were doing, and called those scummy things. He basically asked us to see you as the Form of Scum. That's too obvious a play for ScumMagna to make, I think, so he gets called town for it. And I think you are town, despite the fact that you are all over me. I am trying to look past your play style (which makes me feel ugh) to your intentions, which I think are good.

**snippy snip**

Of the rest of the players, shannon definitely pings me the most. A good number of her early posts don't really offer any information or explain what she's thinking, and she seems actually opposed to sharing information in 58. She had already addressed it in 49, so why come back to it? Additionally, if she actually scum reads him, why move her vote to my slot to "encourage participation" rather than leave it on a scum read?

VOTE: shannon

It's not that I'm opposed to sharing information, it's that as you say, I had already addressed it so why come back to it? I'm trying to avoid bogging down the game with meaningless stuff.

There is no subtext to my move - I wanted you to participate, so I voted you.

**snippy snip**

Null. Although I kind of resonated with this post. If I'm reading that correctly, Shannon checked Elias's game history like I did to see if Elias typically posts like how he did. So if I'm right then that's why Shannon noticed how long Elias has been on for.

Nope, you're wrong. I don't ever go back and read other games. I have a hard enough time concentrating on current experiences, let alone players' past games. Elias's join date is under his avatar.

Someone asked whether I'd played with any of these people before - no, not unless they're alts. I myself have no alts.

[shannon]

I have never played this kind of setup before, both in terms of all roles being known and in terms of town having no investigative PRs. Does anyone have any insights, beyond 'keep the PRs hidden'?

[shannon]

Let me be a bit clearer: Magna's points about 'what scum do' could not have pointed at you more directly. It's almost like he checked on your posts and made a list of three things you were doing, and called those scummy things. He basically asked us to see you as the Form of Scum. That's too obvious a play for ScumMagna to make, I think, so he gets called town for it.

What do you mean by "too obvious a play"?

Honestly, if Magna's scum that's a pretty good play -- toss shade on people who're obvtown and chugging the game along, and impose how he thinks certain roles are played on the rest of us. Or he's town and just wanted to jaw a bit about a simple setup like this and make sure we all knew basic conventions of how mafia is sometimes played.

And I think you are town, despite the fact that you are all over me. I am trying to look past your play style (which makes me feel ugh) to your intentions, which I think are good.

Yea but why.

Excuse my lack of quote in quote formatting and any tipos, I'm on mobile.

1) too obvious for the reason you said, it's a classic pay to get town following your lead, by explaining what they should be looking out for. If they make it to late game as scum it's exactly the sort of post that can be later used against them.

2) why do i think you are town? Because f your aggressive scum hunting, simple as that. I don't like your tone or style (and the subtle dig you made in the post I quoted) but the overall impression I get is that you are coming from the right place.

[shannon]

I've never had people complain about my playstyle before. Hmm.

Don't worry too much about it, it says more about my personality than it does yours

shannon who's scum?

Tenshi

[shannon]

Sorry for the very short post above, I was pushed for time. Going to give more details on my Tenshi read, BRB.

[shannon]

This post comes with the disclaimer that it's full WIFOM. It might not add up for anyone else, but this is how I see it.

Tenshii seems concerned with getting votes off of Grapes, see 105 and 106. I think there are reasons for this beyond Tenshii questioning reads or townreading Grapes in general.

From a scum perspective, I think Grapes is the sort of player who could be mislynched late in the game for a scum win. He's a self-appointed town leader, he gives limited reasons for his reads (moon logic etc), he's pushy. So if he's not night killed, he's the sort of player who starts to look a bit suspicious around D3. As in,

If this guy is half as good as he thinks he is, why isn't he dead yet? He must be scum

.

So here in pregame we've got Grapes in full effect, giving reads that he promises are serious and giving them authoritatively. And what does Tenshii come in and do? Not see them as RVS, not question why Grapes is being so aggressive, but tries to move votes off of him. See for example, his questioning of the votes on Grapes in 105 and 106.

So why do this? Why not let the people have their votes on Grapes? Because Grapes will later prove useful in a scum plot. He is a prime mislynch target late in the game. And if he needs to be offed overnight, well, with the number of people who have scum read him, what are the chances that he would be protected?

VOTE: Tenshii

[shannon]

Are you trying to back away from your stance that you’ve said many times that I’m scum?

I'm gonna give you some space. I still think you could be scum, but maybe the fact that you're tunneling pretty hard on me has something to do with why I think that.

You should talk about your other reads. My thoughts on CR.

I'm reading this interaction and it pings me as something that results from a scum partner saying 'find a reason to stop pressuring so-and-so, they're obv town'.

[shannon]

Responding to Ranmaru's 'catch up' post 185, which (for those who may have seen his 'questions next post' and assumed otherwise) actually contains lots of questions.

1) "Why didn't you come to this conclusion when the question was asked originally?" - (regarding a vote on me in pregame not being random).

As I've already said, I thought the answer was implied: we were in RVS, so the vote was random (or close enough to). In my understanding, in RVS every vote is either random (pick a name, any name) or close to it (pick any slight justification, and vote for that). To me, there's not much difference between the two. Certainly not enough justification for me to have strong feelings about CR voting me for saying that I hope this will be my first town win. OK, he gets scum vibes from that post, it's pre-game and who cares? Not worth me giving it a tonne of attention. Certainly not worth someone else continuing to debate why I classed CR's vote as random, 170-odd posts later.

2) "The question was not asking you to describe the type of player he was. He was asking if he 'was always like that'. Have you played with him before? Why did you give this particular answer?"

So in your understanding, I ought I to have read Grapes' ISO and answered simply yes, or no? What I was trying to point out is that this 'high energy' thing would have to be done quite constantly, or it would become an obvious tell. I've never played with anyone on this list before, as I've already said.

3) "This is wrong. You can have reads early game, just not solid reads. "

I feel like we're playing semantics here. If a read is supposed to be taken seriously, then it should be solid. If the reason given was things like 'moon logic', then to me that's not really a read at all.


4) "What sparked this theory? Didn't you suspect him? Can you explain your read on him now?"

On Grapes? or Tenshii? The theory was sparked because it's the sort of play I'd try to set up early as scum.

5) "I'd like an answer to this as well." - regarding my misinterpretation of the Tenshii thing ...

If I misread then of course I'll reconsider things. I'm about to run out the door so give me some time and I'll repost.

[shannon]

^^ Should've done PEdit, but I was half way through writing this when you asked for it

[shannon]

@

Shannon

: should have been more clear about that. I said to make sure to read the catch up in case you missed it.

• You say that you consider that in RVS, either the slot picked the vote randomly, or picked a justification for a random person. You can only pick one. Both are indeed different.
  
• That question was
  not
  for you to answer. If you wanted to respond, you'd say 'I do not know how he plays usually'. If you were familiar with him, then it would make sense to respond. To answer that question as a stranger you'd have to dig up his older games.
  
• A read never starts out strong. Having weak reads in the beginning is fine. The moon logic bit was different, and I agree with you on that point. What do you think was his intent with that particular read, why out that?
  
• Grapes.
  
• Read on MoI?

1) and 2) Yes, both those things are different, but each player can do one or more of them during RVS. Please refrain from speaking to me like I'm a child. I don't give a flying fuck whether you thought the question was there for me to answer, especially since it had no name attached to it. Stop making mountains from mole hills and stop trying to dredge up minor points that are meaningless in the context of the whole game. (To the person who thought I was being fake and forced - how's that for a response).

3) The moon logic read? I can only speculate on what the intention was. I *think* it was in part to establish a pattern of making super wifom reads, so as to be able to fall back on it later if required. Same with 'vibes that I could explain but you wouldn't appreciate'. It also helped him to flesh out the reads list, he's got a town block, a townie who can't be in a block because they haven't posted yet, two nulls, and two scum.

4) and 5) I really want to be able to scum read Grapes. I don't like his style one bit. Similarly, I like how MoI plays and of course my gut wants to town read someone who sticks up for me. It could be that MoI is trying to buddy up a bit, but I don't see how scum could benefit from being associated with me, given that I've got very little town cred anyway. So they're town/town for me at the moment.

[shannon]

OK, I've re-read and I completely misinterpreted Tenshii's posts - UNVOTE:

[shannon]

Tenshii/Ranmaru/RachMarie/BTD6_maker

shaddowez

MagnaofIllusion/shannon/Comparing Realities

Agree with Rach as town, and I can see how you got there with Tenchi. Agree that Shaddowez is somewhere in the neutral zone, not enough for me to go on yet and what there is could easily be read both ways.

I disagree with your read on CR, I think he's neutral to town. Why do you read him as scum?

I also don't see how you get town on BTD6. At best, he's neutral for me - 18 and 56 just look like town posturing to me, 182 seems mildly towny.

[shannon]

My most probable partner for Grapes is Shannon. The "disclaimer" that this could be WIFOM on Tenshii's part may be trying to mask WIFOM on her part. Saying that Grapes is just a Townie that is useful in a late-game scum plot may be an easy way to defend Grapes in late-game if people get suspicious about his continued survival. That one post strongly suggests that if Shannon is scum then Grapes is too. Overall, Shannon/Grapes is a viable scumteam.

If I was going to do it myself, I wouldn't have brought it up.

At the wound care clinic on my kindle fire and the hospital WiFi. Will do catch up post when I get back home.

Hope you get better soon x

[shannon]

Agree with Rach as town, and I can see how you got there with Tenchi. Agree that Shaddowez is somewhere in the neutral zone, not enough for me to go on yet and what there is could easily be read both ways.

I'd like to know how you arrived at your tenchi read.

If I am wrong in what I said about Tenchi a few pages ago - and it seems I completely misread one of his posts that I quoted - then I can see why you read him as town.

I disagree with your read on CR, I think he's neutral to town. Why do you read him as scum?

Have you seen what he's pushing me for?
Have you read any of my posts on him?

Yes, I've seen what he's pushing you for. I'm not convinced it's coming from a scummy place. I would appreciate you responding directly rather than with more questions.

I also don't see how you get town on BTD6. At best, he's neutral for me - 18 and 56 just look like town posturing to me, 182 seems mildly towny.

Like I said just feel like he was actually trying to figure me out for a little bit anyway. His questions of my reads were okay like he wanted to understand my thought process. I never got a reply to #130 from him, but that's also where I presented some of the things I've been finding off about CR, that was a while back I've developed a bit since.

Why does my question about BTD6 get this sort of answer, while my question about CR is just met with more questions?

[shannon]

...

[shannon]

Geez Tenshii, be careful, someone is sure to scum read you for responding to posts about me or for defending me.

All I have to say about Ranmaru is that he has no need of developing reads on others if he's so sure about his scum reads on me an MoI. Everyone else has got to be town, just by the numbers, right?

Seriously though, I think you've misrepresented me a bit here Ranmaru.

"Shannon's (#85) is most telling, since she points to MoI's [#80] pointing to Grapes yet she votes onto Shadow to participate. It shows she has more interest in discrediting Grapes while putting her vote in a safe spot. Her opinion is that she would love to scumread him but townreads him, while giving reasons as to why he may be scum or null."

I wasn't trying to discredit Grapes. I was saying that MoI's List of Scummy Stuff pointed to Grapes, and that this could be something Scum MoI would do (follow his instructions, vote a townie), but that ultimately I thought it too obvious a play and that MoI *and Grapes* were both town. If I was going to throw shade on Grapes I'd do it directly, not through some roundabout comment on how another player's post could be interpreted, perhaps, as targeting them.

"She also brings out a theory on Tenchii but upon pressure, reverses the read without a legimatite explanation showing why she may have been wrong. She just defaulted to unvoting Tenchii. This shows she isn't thinking critically and instead focusing on her image and doing what she thinks people expect of her, rather than doing what she believes. Notice that she states she reverses it due to a re-read and not the arguments that were brought up. She does this to seem like she was the one that came to the conclusion in the end, covering up any influence of her read reversal.(#193)"

Did you read the thread? I linked to posts that I thought showed Tenshii trying to move votes off of a certain player. Someone else pointed out that I was wrong, and that one of the things I linked to was actually Tenshii questioning why someone *wasn't* voting that player. When I went back and checked, I realised I was wrong and I unvoted. So yes, it was nothing to do with anyone else's opinion of Tenshii, and everything to do with me misunderstanding what one post said. I'm not hiding anything, that really is the whole reason.

[shannon]

Super quicky replies because I'm both painting the house and watching the grand final. I'll be back later. I've read the walls but need more time to digest them, so just replying to direct stuff at this point.

I don't have any thoughts on CR's vote, other than it's RVS

.

I don't actually get how people have reads early on, so I am neutral about yours.

Underlined, she states that she has no other thoughts other than it is random. Look below.

OK,

I'll try again

.

You voted me because I said I hoped this game would be my first town win, and you thought that was suss

.

To me, it may as well be random

, you got a vibe from an offhand comment, and voted based on it. I don't have any strong feelings about that, it seems a reasonable thing to do in early game.

She states here that she'll try to explain again, with new reasoning. She explains that she sees he has a suspicion on her, then adds to that it may have been as well random, to her, to justify ignoring it by calling it 'random' when in fact, it is not random.

I'm so done with this.

@

Shannon

:

1. It's not that easy. Everyone has to be accounted for, you can't ignore people because if you do that's how scum can win. (By them saying something townie but then dissapearing and you focus on others who are actually active)

2. Why do you interact with Grapes instead of MoI though? Have you asked MoI about it? Please expand on it being 'too obvious'.

3. My issue is that you don't explain why you decide to take off your vote. You just say "Yes, you are right, I was wrong" and precede to unvote. It would be helpful to see where you agreed.

I interact with Grapes because he asks me direct questions, like you're doing now. If Magna asks me questions I'll answer them. I don't address Magna's posts directly because they seem broadly towny so what am I going to do, quote stuff and say it looks town?

[shannon]

Been a weekend.

Got a chance to skim shannon's iso.

She's town.

Explain. You were scumreading her just a moment ago. If you are changing your read so suddenly, give reasons.
It seems a likely possibility that, since scum have Daytalk, Shannon has just reminded you that you are supposed to be defending her.

Yeah, I'd also like an explanation, since you've been scum reading me since pregame!

All I can say to that second point, BTD, is

*snippy snip*

shannon, tell me you're seeing what im seeing

What exactly are you referring to?

[shannon]

@Ranmaru

The fact that I think Grapes would have to commit to this act all the time is not me calling his play null. It's me thinking that his *style* is NAI while the *substance* points to town. (Aside: Has anyone actually checked on this and read any of Grapes other games? I haven't yet).

On to your more substantive point: You think I should be scum reading Grapes as he meets Magna's three criteria. In saying this, you are implicitly asking me to:

- Agree with Magna that his List is of things that actually do reliably indicate scum
- Scum read everyone who does these things, even if it would put too many players in the scum category
- Ignore other things that I think scum does, if it points to people who aren't scum by Magna's List
- Ignore any evidence of towniness, even if I think it would outweigh the scumminess

Now can you see why I'm not scum reading Grapes, even though Magna's List of Stuff Scum Does points to him?

[shannon]

I haven't played with Grapes before but based on his play here he doesn't seem like the sort of person who'd accidentally scum read his scum partner!

The other thing is that scum reading a partner isn't always a bad strategy. If there's an unstoppable looking wagon on them, scum reading makes sense. (You can see I did it with Creature in the game linked below - and we both lived on to win, for what it's worth). What doesn't make sense is starting the scum partner wagon yourself.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=66318

[shannon]

Shannon

:

What about his style is null to you, and why do you dislike it? My issue isn't that you are not scumreading him, it's that you say those things when you townread him. You shouldn't bring that up at all if it doesn't help you find scum. That only helps others think about that and give him flak, which makes it more likely others may agree/vote/wagon/lynch Grapes. Also, how do you feel about Tenchii not commenting on your vote/theory? Opinion on BDT?

Finding town is just as helpful to me as finding scum, I generally work by some combination of POE and gut feel in the early stages.

The things I dislike about Grapes' style are that it's out there and quite aggressive, and it was moreso in the early game. That post with the moonlogic and the 'thank me later' is just yucky to me. In real life if someone was like that I'd avoid them. I think it's NAI because I've played with other people who were like that, and their alignments have varied.

Burden of proof demands you bring a case, Grapes. Also, you should let me finish my interaction with Shannon. Since your read of Shannon now influences your read on me, I think it is important you show your work relating to your read changing on her.

I would also like to know why Grapes' read on me has changed. He's been on me all game.

[shannon]

There's just so much else good in your iso too, that it's completely forgivable.

Just genuine thought processes and good questions everywhere. You have a clear path to follow. Your frustration with being pushed by Ranmaru (especially recently) is obviously genuine.

I'm literally bad for not realizing you were town sooner but this game so far is already proof enough of that.

I really need specifics here, I can't just believe that you've gone and changed your mind from 'everything is awful' to 'so much is good'. What's the balance sheet saying, for real?

[shannon]

I did kind of lol at 'burden of proof', this is mafia not court

[shannon]

@Magna good question. I'm just ISOing a few people who have slipped through the cracks for me.

I'm giving Rach a pass for now because she's been both sick and busy, but it does seem to be dragging on...

CR hasn't been around much but his ISO shows he's at least in conversation with quite a few players. I don't like his lack of votes.

I find it a bit weird that BTD has almost exclusively posted about Grapes or me. Actually apart from [post]18[/[post], his whole ISO is either about, or responding to, Grapes or me. That's not what I'd call scum hunting and it screams busy work. Care to explain, BTD?

[shannon]

VOTE: BTD

[shannon]

@Shannon

– who do you think is scum? I’m curious given you backed off your Tenshii read.

@BTD

– since you acknowledge that Shannon makes a not-likely partner choice for grapes who is your next choice?

I said Shannon is the most likely partner of all. The chances are low of Shannon/Grapes (we are in Day 1) but they are greater than every single other scumteam. Otherwise, I do not have any other definite partners.
I will say it is unlikely that Ranmaru is the partner as I don't see why scum Grapes would switch from hard Townreading Ranmaru to voting when there is no wagon there.

My ISO is mostly about Grapes because I am trying to push this lynch.

That's an understatement, it's not

mostly

about Grapes, it's almost entirely about Grapes - it's Grapes and me, all the way. Why no questions for any other players? Why not try to get a read on anyone else? Why just show up and push one wagon, without even considering that there might be someone else hiding in the shadows (or that you might be wrong)?

When I asked that question, I was implying that she's ignoring Magna while having you both as town. That would lead to possible Magna/Shannon connection. I know when I was a scumnewbie I never interacted with my partner much. I generally like to ask my scumreads about other slots they have yet to mention with reference to your btd comment. For example, Tenchii never commented on Shannon's tenchii post, so I found that interesting. Therefore I asked her about it. Which she has not actually answered.

Yep, I'm a newbie with less than a dozen games under my belt, but I've won both my scum games and in one of them, if I were being immodest, I would say I carried my partner. So I would warn you that if you think I'm scum with Magna because we're not interacting much, you need to really reassess that. If you want to scum read me you're going to need a much better reason.

Also, if you're working by this reasoning then BTD is scum with everyone

[shannon]

@

Shannon

: Can you link those games?

Sure thing.

This was my first time as scum, and we both made it through for a clean sweep
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=66318

This was my second time as scum, I replaced in on D2 to a slot that had already had two players in it and won in MYLO
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=66477

As town, I've never won, hence my post in pregame. I have also never been lynched!

[shannon]

I could compromise on to Ranmaru I guess. If I do this I'd like people to take a look at BTD - and pressure BTD to read people more widely - on D2 though.

Agree with the general request for people to DO THINGS and VOTE. Seriously, I feel like only half of us are playing. Sub out if you can't keep up, let someone have a go who actually wants to play.

[shannon]

OMG can we stop with the 'will post tonight' and actually post?!

[shannon]

It's so that this thread shows up when you 'ego search', AKA click 'my posts'

[shannon]

Instead of accusing me for scum justification you can explain why you are playing differently here.

Shannon gave a blanket statement (question?) of 'can everyone just post!' and that's not ok. I wanted to know who in particular she had a problem with posting that. I also did say some of us post promised content, that would refer to those who have posted content after promising it.

More later tonight.

Apologies, it was just a general statement of frustration. So many posts of 'I"ll catch up tonight', 'sorry guys, life busy', 'big post incoming', three days later 'sorry, catching up now' etc etc. It's happening in another game of mine as well and I'm just over it! I want these people to stop *saying* that they'll post and actually post, like take two minutes and just read the post on top of yours and say something (anything!) about it, so we have some more content.

[shannon]

uggh
I was going to replace out, but there is only about a day and a half left?

Ok will hold in there and really focus on this game tomorrow absolutely.

Right, I didn't realise the deadline was quite so close. Who can we compromise on?

[shannon]

I am going to go out on a limb here and VOTE: No Lynch

Here's why:

1) There's no clear wagon, and too many inactive players to form one with any kind of good judgment
2) If we no lynch every day, and the docs get it wrong every night, we are in 5P LYLO on D6. If we mislynch every day - and we get it wrong, and the night kills go through - we are in 5P LYLO on D3. So no lynching early on buys time for town.
3) The aim of this game is to keep our PRs hidden, and accidentally lynching town just ups the chance that a PR will be targeted for NK. We need to keep our PRs long enough for them to gather useful info, and reducing our numbers when we're unsure doesn't help this.

Thoughts?

[shannon]

Excuse the typo, it should read:

If we mislynch every day - and the night kills go through - we are in 5P LYLO on D3.

The 'and we get it wrong' is what I had before I remembered the word for mislynch!

[shannon]

I have Tenchii as null at the moment. Nothing there for me to read either way but still waiting on an answer to a question of mine.

I give Shannon a C+ for effort.

Everyone else is a question mark.

Well, I'm sad that you think I'm not putting in much effort, and that you think that I lack effort as town in general. I have certainly had better and worse games - worst being when I joined a large game and couldn't keep track of twenty-something players who had posted like ten pages every time I woke up - but in general I make an effort. I am trying to solve the game, and if you don't think I'm doing that well, it's because of lack of experience and not lack of effort. (I feel bad even making that defense, 'I'm trying but I just suck', but it's true).

I want to take up the point again about the no lynch. While it's true that no lynching doesn't give us a chance to hit scum, it also means we don't take out town. I think we should save up as many days as possible with as many live townies as possible, and then when it comes to the crunch, we'll at least have a few doctor results (or failed attempts) to discuss. I don't want to risk mislynching people early while we have no info.

Additionally, I can't support the Magna wagon, I've town read him all game and I don't see what you guys do. I'd vote Grapes before I voted Magna. If I'm going to join a lynch wagon it needs to be BTD, but again, I'd really prefer not to lynch today.

[shannon]

It's not, I promise. Cross my heart.

[shannon]

My latest round of posting is my being pissed that rach is literally game throwing and i haven't bad coffee yet. Sue me you lizard.

[shannon]

OK so Rach + Magna? Or Grapes + Ranmaru? Actually, I think possibly Grapes buddying Ranmaru

I am really confident in Magna as town and would rather lynch anyone else. If I can't get a no lynch, I'd sooner see grapes go.

[shannon]

VOTE: Grapes

That makes L-2 on both Grapes and Magna

[shannon]

OK so Rach + Magna? Or Grapes + Ranmaru? Actually, I think possibly Grapes buddying Ranmaru

I am really confident in Magna as town and would rather lynch anyone else. If I can't get a no lynch, I'd sooner see grapes go.

Isn't Grapes your town read? Shannon, I want you to give me a break down.

Break down is that there are two wagons, and if I've gotta be on one i'd rather it be grapes than Magna.

Shannon, I'm still

waiting

. /sonic

Sorry was at the dog park, it's saturday AM here

Town {Shannon}
Lean {Grapes, Magna, Ranmaru}
Null {Not_Mafia, Aristophanes, RachMarie}
Scum {BTD}

VOTE: BTD

I think scum!Grapes,Magna,Ranmaru are too out there. In a world where scum want to survive to the end, pushing THIS hard onto a person you know is town is bound to give you trouble in the future days.

BTD's iso has consistency issues.lack of conviction with his beliefs, and his 331 is a weird reaction to my post.

OK so you're going BTD? Wish this had happened earlier, then I wouldn't have felt pressured to hop off on Grapes.

VOTE: BTD

[shannon]

Town {Shannon}
Lean {Grapes, Magna, Ranmaru}
Null {Not_Mafia, Aristophanes, RachMarie}
Scum {BTD}

VOTE: BTD

I think scum!Grapes,Magna,Ranmaru are too out there. In a world where scum want to survive to the end, pushing THIS hard onto a person you know is town is bound to give you trouble in the future days.

BTD's iso has consistency issues.lack of conviction with his beliefs, and his 331 is a weird reaction to my post.

BTD cannot be lynched at this point, it's grapes or magna,

why are you townreading magna?

False dichotomy, all it takes is a couple of votes to change and BTD absolutely can be lynched.

Shannon I kind of wanted to know what lead you to think Rach + Magna / Grapes buddying Ranmaru. I basically want your reads and reasoning for them. I'm restating that I'm not seeing enough justification from you.

Sorry, I was being quick because I had to go out. I meant to post that I was out moving furniture but for some reason it didn't post. I'll do this one after I make this quick wall of replies.

I agree that BTD votes are pretty lame.

Why? Up until the point I called him out, BTD's only interaction was commentary on me vs. Grapes. If that doesn't reek of 'trying to look active while not really participating', I don't know what does.

Hmm...if this is a scum flip, BTD is assuredly town as the counterwagon attempt. If this is a town flip, he is very possibly scum.

His iso is about 90% Grapes and Shannon commentary, and an awful lot of his justification is awkward and fake. Like he really has to push to make cases, so he's over thinking them and making them very robotic.

Also, his attempt to derail the MoI wagon is noted. Well, that is, his attempt to discredit Grapes and push that lynch ahead by saying how bad his vote was. This is part of a series of analyses on the MoI votes that started with Grapes and ended with...Grapes.

Nope, sorry, don't agree. I think Magna is town and if he flips scum, that won't change my view on BTD. Focus on that second part of your point, the bit I've bolded. Is that not worth a vote on its own?

[shannon]

PEdit is the wrong thing but you get what I mean: Got half way through this and people have shown up, so I'm sorry, that's me for the next few hours. Hopefully you can see where I'm going with this? If it proves relevant after deadline (or I make it back beforehand) I'll finish it.

I'm sorry, I've got a whole bunch of quotes at the end that I didn't get to arrange or commentate on. The basic idea is that Rach's early vote on MoI + almost radio silence (but avoiding a prod and replacement) + convenient timing for the unvote = a potential team. I'm not totally convinced by thsi because I'm town reading MoI, but if he is lynched today and flips scum I want to look at Rach.

Shannon I kind of wanted to know what lead you to think Rach + Magna / Grapes buddying Ranmaru. I basically want your reads and reasoning for them. I'm restating that I'm not seeing enough justification from you.

I'll be the first to admit it's mostly circumstantial, but this is how it could add up.

In 55, Rach makes an RVS jokey vote on MoI, and leaves it there until *today*. This would be a good plan if MoI was expecting to be wagoned, say by a Grapes type figure with whom he could pick an early fight.

In 90, Rach interacts with MoI again, not about anything really game-related except a slight defence of Grapes as prob town. If these two are a team, that's a subtle attempt at distancing. This is also the post where she declares VLA.

This brings me to another point: Despite declaring VLA, Rach manages to post every single day afterward, and sometimes twice. But none of these posts has had anything in the way of content, except updating the circumstances (work, illness, etc). So there's clearly an ability to post, even if they're short ones. So as I asked elsewhere, why not just take two minutes to read the post above hers and ask a question about it?

In 146 we have Rach's justification for not unvoting MoI - "I generally do not unvote until I figure out my initial reads, or someone does something that pings my scumdar so bad I vote someone based on that". I find it really implausible that that hasn't happened until today. It seems awfully convenient. As does this:

uggh
I was going to replace out, but there is only about a day and a half left?

Ok will hold in there and really focus on this game tomorrow absolutely.

I'm also unconvinced by this bit of commentary:

I generally do not unvote until I have a serious mafia case

Don't have a major case, but i do think NM is scummier than you are,

VOTE: NM

*snippy snip*

I’ve not explicitly given reads on CR, Rach and BDT to this point so I certainly can’t have updated them in thread.

BTD is a worry for me. I like his posting but it isn’t very often. It’s making my skin itch because keeping below the radar was a hallmark of our one game together where he was scum.

CR is in my “not directly worried about yet” column given he’s pushing grapes with me. I’ll re-assess if my scum read on grapes goes away or he ever flips Town.

Rach is posting like I expect Rach to. I’d certainly like to see more out of her but given her declaration of RL circumstances and consistency there I’m inclinded to say I don’t see Rach scum at the moment.

We have approximately 3 days to deadline.

Tenshii, Shaddow and

Rach all need to provide readable content and votes

.

Frankly I am getting a bit paranoid that

scum is hiding in the low content providing players

and just going with the flow while Town fights among itself.

^^Subtle distancign from RAch?

I hate being sick catching up now.

Yeah it sucks. I know you are basically behind across site which is why I haven't pressed before but please at least get your suspicions for scum and a vote on one of those suspicions into thread soon.

[shannon]

VOTE: BTD

Back later for a re-read

[shannon]

Starting with this for now, because I don't want to be the person who ignores the dead's last post. My comments in italics because I can't work out how to do the quote break up thing.

VOTE: Magnaofillusion

*snip*

Lynch grapes tomorrow. This is a must.

If he flips scum auto lynch Ran for the likely win - they've laid too clear a path of distancing today. I'd give about 85% odds I'm right.

This explains why Grapes was NKed. If they'd killed anyone else, we would have been able to analyse the scum motivation behind it. We can't look and see who that person was interacting with or speculate about the reasons for their death. By killing someone whose head was already on the block, we don't get any new information. And now we have to pick someone to lynch, which gives scum info about where *our* heads are at.

If the flips Town then it is a much harder road. I don't have time while V/LA to do full re-read but gun to my head right now I'd probably say in descending order of best lynches - Arist > BTD / Not Mafia > Ran > Tenshii / Rach

I think we should take this as a starting point. Please everyone ISO Aristo and BTD as a priority.

Spoilers: Relevant part of Magna's post but snipping for length

Spoiler:

Arist's posts about counter-wagons ring false as since I'm Town there is no scum counter-wagon attempt. Derp. So I see him as setting the stage on a BTD push tomorrow with my Town flip. And that makes no sense from a Town perspective.

I put BTD and Not Mafia next as they are poor players who will get that shield in MYLO / LYLO. It's painful to have to risk the game on a VI lynch but if grapes / Ran isn't the team odds are one is there. I'd lean Not Mafia personally of the two.

Ran certainly could have been playing White Knight if grapes is Town but his lack of any other scum-reads means he's absolutely killed his credibility with my Town flip so I'm wagering he's just playing bad if grapes is Town. Reminder - grapes scum means hang Ran immediately.

Tenshii hasn't done anything very Pro-Town at all today and the fact that she late moved to BTD (which is non-liable with 12 hours to go) off of grapes makes sure grapes wasn't possible for Shannon to move to and give Rach the hammer choice. If grapes is scum and I'm wrong on Ran then this is his most likely other partner.

Rach I don't like her play. While I believe from other site activity that she was ill that doesn't excuse her being on a vanity wagon at deadline and not committing to either myself or grapes. If grapes flips scum never lynch her.

The last part in bold because it is important -

IF YOU ARE TOWN THIS GAME AND CAST A VOTE FOR SHANNON YOU ARE A MORON. SHE'S CLEARLY TOWN AND ALL THIS CLEARLY SCUMMY "MOI AND SHANNON" GARBAGE I'VE BEEN SEEING DIES WITH MY SELF-HAMMER. SHE IS LOCK TOWN AND SHOULD BE PROTECTED OVER ANYONE ELSE IN THE GAME.

I can't well not address this. I'm not sure why Magna is so sure of my towniness, maybe it's just because I didn't vote him. Anyway - Please don't vote me for obvious reasons, but also, he's wrong about the need to protect me at this point. Docs should be on whoever they think is the other doc

*snippy*

[shannon]

After those flips I'm unsure of where I stand, after the MoI flip, I was ready to vote grapes coming in to today, Rach is my only confident read at this point

LMAOOOOO WTFFFFF. I DONT UNDERSTAND THIS NIGHTKILL. I literally thought Grapes was gonna be the center of attention today and the eventual lynch . Will force myself to reread through those walls at some point.

FOS: These reactions

[shannon]

uggh give me a RL day or so I will be posting

under major work deadline, plus dealing with maintenance guy jerkface plus jerky landlord later today. Trying to pick up the apartment

And yet, time to hang out in site chat? (I'm not stalking you I just opened the lobby tab, and there you are chatting with a polar bear)

[shannon]

Not_Mafia is actually a townlean at the moment. Shaddowez had solid posts when he could be around, and I haven't seen anything AI in NM himself. Based on predecessor play, he gets a townlean. That fake hammer was super lame though.

Whoa, ninja!

Aristo, Can you please explain why you thought NM's play was worthy of a town lean? This is his ISO up to the point you posted. I'll bold comments next to everything I think is possibly scummy.

Spoiler:

Why hello there

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

naked vote

L-1? Cool

VOTE: Magna

faux hammer naked vote

lol

Town reading grapes and Rach based on page 2

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from basically now until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

Did a quick read on the pre-game phase.

VOTE: Shannon

Also think Grapes might be a good wagon for all the immediate “Town block go” posturing.

These are bollocks cookie cutter reads

Whoever can guess why I lol'd in post #68 gets to be confirmed town.

Because one scum chainsawed you to protect their buddy. Either that, or because they just plain voted you.
In which case, VOTE: grapes. Confirmed townread that, bro.

ew

Lastly - notice how generic many of his so called markers for Town / Scum are (tone is used way too often to Town-read when it is absolutely meaningless, note that my entrance is the classic generic "scum" post).

Just gonna leave this here

Can't decide whether shannon is scum or just kooky

Whoever can guess why I lol'd in post #68 gets to be confirmed town.

Because one scum chainsawed you to protect their buddy. Either that, or because they just plain voted you.
In which case, VOTE: grapes. Confirmed townread that, bro.

Back from V/LA.

First let me address my grapes scum read.

BTD/Tenshii/Rach/grapes townblock. Vibes taht I could explain but you wouldn't appreciate.

So this opening line of 25 is what first got my attention. As I said previously – scum getting a Town read early on is a good way to help neutralize the power of the Docs. Why this struck me is that the immediate Townread he has on literally 24 posts doesn’t make much sense.

Tenshiii has posted 5 and 11.

Rach had posted 6, 17, 19 and 20.

BTD had posted 15 and 18.

Looking in context there is not a single post there that isn’t easily replicable by scum. It is all generally reasonable and completely NAI posting. I suspect that grapes chose players he was most familiar with (and thus would be most amenable to his page 2 Townblock suggestiong).

@BTD / Tenshii / Rachel

- is my suspicion about your familiarity with grapes correct?

Next we have the following that solidified my early scum read. And make no mistake … it is clearly early.

Yup this is scum, more super generic cookie cutter reasoning, fake stream of consciousness style posting

I think this comment - and all the posts that are quoted without comment - look pretty shifty now we know Magna is town

Why are you ostensibly worried about wagon composition in pre-game?

This question is terrible

Furthermore the MoI townread is bad -- there's been zero impression of him figuring anything out. He's been scumreading since he replaced into the game.

So to be clear - finding and pressuring scum-reads isn't figuring out the game in your mind?

lol

@grapes I voted you because it was ironic for the "confirmed town" to vote the person who offered the designation. Also, you never explained

why

you LOL'd in 68.

I know I'm not exactly an unbiased third party, but grapes's readslist was based on remarkably little stuff of even a passing semblance to evidence.

Magna took it down remarkably easily

, but grapes wouldn't deign to admit it was ultimately useless... My question is grapes, if you're trying to keep track of your thoughts like that, why make it public? Reads based mostly on insubstantial "tone" and "feel" are remarkably volatile and easily manipulated.

Magna's response to grape's reads were admirably logically consistent, but still NAI considering how insubstantial they were in the first place. I think it's safe to say that if Magna is scum, a viable partner grapes would be. I wouldn't put it past a sufficiently conniving team to develop such a ploy--one quickly becomes the star of the show with a flood of seemingly benign posts, while the other plays the level-headed bogeyman to distance themselves while not particularly harming the other... It seems like solid early Day 1 play, which is why

I'm publicly suggesting the game's first tinfoil hat theory: grapes x Magna scum team

.

Reading the above, grapes, you should note how unilaterally awful it is to make a definitive policy proposal so early in the game, barring truly exceptional circumstances.

BTD6_maker: Hasn't done much save criticizing grapes for vocally wanting a townblock, then promptly voting him. It should be clear, though, that this was a joke, which is strange because BTD6 strikes me as a fellow who sees through things like that easily...

Null

Elias: Lurking, joke filler, but promising to respond later tonight.

Null

Tenshii: Hypocritical though it may be, sure, I concede that I like his calm, rational tone.

Lean town

shaddowez: One post so far, understandably townreads Magna, also understandably slightly scumreads grapes, but the case on shannon seems unfulfilling.

Lean town

shannon: When I pressed her about how she didn't respond to my question about how she had a suspicious first post, she explained it away, then soon enough voted me for "asking her to directly answer a question whose answer was implied". I think it's quite strange how she goes on the defense first, then right after changes her stance on the offense to her antagonizer.

Lean scum

grapes: High-energy, active, and "just getting the game going", sure, but ultimately unconvincing. He makes up more than half of this game's posts, but he hasn't really

done

anything.

Lean scum

Rach: ...I don't know. She has this aura of danger about her. Must be the avatar and the meta. Otherwise, I like the questions.

Null

MagnaofIllusion: Good take down of grapes, but it wasn't particularly alignment indicative. See above.

Null

UNVOTE: grapes because there is as of yet insufficient evidence to put my vote anywhere.

The magna and grapes commentary is nonsense, the readlist labels here do not match her CR's thoughts at all

And this to me reads as crafting a narrative that fits his defined read.

MoI+CR, maaaaaaaayyybbeeeee shannon

Yes I'm definitely motivated by your opinion of me

Still up for a flashwagon on CR

What's the case on CR (or whoever is now in that slot)?

I didn't make a case

I didn't make a case

I agree but 400 looks like a half-assed effort towards trying.

Heyyyyyooo

It wasn't an attempt at a case either

What I see in this ISO is votes and leans without cases.

[shannon]

I posted a couple of posts in site chat which require no thinking on my part, no ISO research, no rereading the thread and analyzing posts.

Seriously that is the best you can come up with?

Yeah fair call that was pretty shitty of me. I apologise.

[shannon]

Everyone on BTD - Please explain why I was so crazy to try to lynch him yesterday, yet here you all are?

I'd also love to see a justification of the cross-voting that's going on, it is anything more than OMGUS?

[shannon]

1. BTD6_maker Checked in and voted
2. Realities checked in and voted
3. Elias checked in and not voted lots of responding to other peeps
4. Tenshii checked in and that is it
5. MeowMix Not checked in
6. shannon checked in and voted
7. grapes checked in and voted
8. Rach checked in and voted
9. Kamina not checked in

Here is where we stand so far, wouldn't it make more sense to be voting on people who are actually participating to get more real info than someone who has not yet checked in? Someone who may end up being replaced?

My experience with MM is he tends to flake out of games at times.

Either irony, or distraction set up of the year.

I've just checked Rach's ISO again and it's almost all filler. There is some really light questioning in there and the odd vote, but nothing that really screams TOWN.

[shannon]

Rach what do you think of Aristo?

Rach could you please answer this question? It's not a tough one and doesn't require a case, but it would at least be content.

[shannon]

I would actually like to get some clarification from Ranmaru. The points that I have colour coded seem to contradict each other. Did the formatting get messed up here somewhere and part of this is a quote from someone else? Is it written in a confusing way and I've missed the point? Or is it just a contradiction?

MagnaofIllussion's slot is scum. First off, Kamina replaced out after Grapes pressured him. (#44) It seems he was a newbie and felt the heat, and replaced feeling caught.

MoI is discrediting Grape at first sight (#46).

I feel this has more scum-motivation than town, as he's working to crumble Grape's town credit without actually waiting to read his play.

It is true that he did not vote him at first, yet he voted Shannon with a pressure vote first, to pressure her. He states he aqcuired a slight town reason for not addressing the vote) Yet, he still mentions two things: That Grapes wagon is good, and he discredits him by asking why CR is reading him for 'high-energy' and 'pulling out weird reads'. (this is not word for word) I would think a better approach to reading Grapes would be pushing else where (not commenting on him) and seeing how his play develops un-tainted. I think MoI is pushing for bad play over scum intent in my opinion. Therefore, it's harder to read Grapes since MoI has been pushing him since early game instead of waiting to see how Grape's play developed un-tainted. His (#66) looks like a chainsaw of Shannon, and vibes of an over-reaction from MoI. Overall I feel his push on Grapes is a misrepresentation of his actual play and ignores what good Grapes has been doing, albeit bad play.

Why would Kamina scum replace out when pressured? You are accusing a player of stooping far too low in order to not lose.

I also found Grapes' Town block scummy so I don't see why MoI is scummy because of that. Not everyone who scumreads Grapes is doing it as a ploy to crumble Grapes' Towncred. I also don't find any pushes he made against Grapes to be scummy.

The passage starts off as calling Magna scum. He then gives lots of reasons why Magna *isn't* scum, and then votes Magna at the end of the post.

[shannon]

Ah, OK, I got confused because the vote at the end was also in bold.

[shannon]

Please can everyone remember Magna's advice, that being too quiet in a game makes it easy for scum to pin you as a PR-in-hiding?

[shannon]

I like the BTD wagon but I don't like the possibility of going to 5P lylo with Rach.

Yes that's true - although how far are we from 5P?

[shannon]

@Not_Mafia why is the post by CR scum? I am not making the connection, you've got lots of things marked as scum but also lots as null or town.

[shannon]

Actually you know what, stuff it. Rach has done bugger all this game, but hasn't let herself be replaced either. I can't see how that's even remotely town-positive.

VOTE: Rach

That might be L-2, I think? or L-1? Dont' vote her without checking x

[shannon]

UNVOTE:

Rach's case isn't a case. It's like four posts, absolutely no detail, other than 'reminds me of past game'. Not cool

[shannon]

Tenshii or shannon please unvote, I don't want Ranmaru to have the hammer

Rach and Not Mafia team?

I have unvoted per your request but at this point I will hammer Rach if it comes to it. She's back at L-2 for now.

[shannon]

Whoops sorry guys, life got busy.

Countdown says 20 hours to end of day.

PLEASE DON'T CLAIM because it's only making it easier for scum to narrow down the options for our PRs. Moreover, everyone is just going to claim VT anyway, so what's the point of doing it?

[shannon]

@Aristo can we get back on BTD please?

Aristo, I'd like a stance or two from you. Where do you stand in terms of wagons?

In terms of wagons? Not in terms of reads? What odd word choice. Especially considering part of Grapes' arguments against MoI is thinking in terms of mislynches."

Grapes is a fairly strong townread though, and the two of you have made a solid MoI argument. I'll vote there before the end of day.

Hmm...if this is a scum flip, BTD is assuredly town as the counterwagon attempt. If this is a town flip, he is very possibly scum. His iso is about 90% Grapes and Shannon commentary, and an awful lot of his justification is awkward and fake. Like he really has to push to make cases, so he's over thinking them and making them very robotic.

Also, his attempt to derail the MoI wagon is noted. Well, that is, his attempt to discredit Grapes and push that lynch ahead by saying how bad his vote was. This is part of a series of analyses on the MoI votes that started with Grapes and ended with...Grapes.

Yeah, I'm going to stick with my thoughts yesterday.
VOTE: BTD

The case against him is solid.

I really don't get the grapes kill. I'll have to look into possible motivations for that.

[shannon]

VOTE: BTD

[shannon]

I also really like a BTD / Not Mafia team. Check out Not Mafia's defense of BTD and his case against Aristo, which is NO CASE AT ALL except asking people to lynch him

:

Town {Shannon}
Lean {Grapes, Magna, Ranmaru}
Null {Not_Mafia, Aristophanes, RachMarie}
Scum {BTD}

VOTE: BTD

I think scum!Grapes,Magna,Ranmaru are too out there. In a world where scum want to survive to the end, pushing THIS hard onto a person you know is town is bound to give you trouble in the future days.

BTD's iso has consistency issues.lack of conviction with his beliefs, and his 331 is a weird reaction to my post.

BTD cannot be lynched at this point, it's grapes or magna, why are you townreading magna?

After those flips I'm unsure of where I stand, after the MoI flip, I was ready to vote grapes coming in to today, Rach is my only confident read at this point

VOTE: Aristophanes

Who's scum Aristo?

Aristo full reads list please

Shannon, let me get back to you on NM. I want to reread him.

His play mostly struck me as town on a gut/meta level, but I want to go more into it.

How convenient

Rach what do you think of Aristo?

I've been known to bus

The solution is to lynch Aristo

Gun to your head, Aristo town or scum?

And Aristo claim

Hammer Aristo

Why is Aristo evading this game?

Not really, Aristo is consistently site active and all he has done is slither on the Rach wagon

[shannon]

Alright. So at the moment, I don't see the Aristo case. I don't get it.

I see that Rach has a scumread of NM, and uses that he is bussing pre-flip to join NM's wagon. I find that suspect. I also think she claimed early to gain town cred, since Mafia might want to claim Doctor if they are going down. She did this early without reason to have the higher ground.

So between Aristo and Rach, I think a Rach wagon is the way to go today.

Unvote; Vote: Rach

False dichotomy, please vote BTD or Not Mafia. Those two are a team, subtly pushing a lynch on Aristo, and they need to go.

[shannon]

@Not Mafia if you characterise Aristo as 'slithering' on to a wagon, how would you describe your own joining of the Aristo wagon? Because looking at what I've posted in 683, I can't see any case on him at all.

[shannon]

Oh yeah, and Not Mafia is trying to keep Rach around for exactly the same reasons that (I think it was Ranmaru) wanted to lynch her, which is that she's unreliable in LYLO. Don't be suckered in. Let's get these scummy buggers out of the game.

[shannon]

Bloody well done with the D2 stuff guys, really well done.

[shannon]

People to vote for the win, in order: Ranmaru, Rach, Tenshii (just in case you were targeted BTD and the doc protected you).

VOTE: Ranmaru

L-2

Day 2 VC #7

BTD6_maker (2) (L-2) - shannon, Aristo
Aristo (2) (L-2) - Not_Mafia, BTD6_Maker
Ranmaru (0) -
Tenshii (0) -
Not_Mafia (1) - Ranmaru
shannon (0) -
Rach (0) -
Not Voting (2) - Tenshii, Rach

Lynch Threshold

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline

Day 2 will end on October 22, 2016 5:30 PM EDT or in (expired on 2016-10-22 17:30:00).

Moderator Notes

Moderator V/LA every Friday until November 11. Moderator V/LA on October 1, October 8 and November 5.
Moderator V/LA October 24.

[shannon]

umm btd is the doc and clearly the last scum went for tenshi over the doc which makes me wonder why.

I still say it is NM


VOTE: NM

BTD is the even night doc, though? There's another regular doc somewhere, isn't there?

[shannon]

wait we have two docs? that makes no sense BTD claimed even night doc

It's in the setup on the first page, we have a doc and an even doc, and all the rest VTs

[shannon]

Also - Mafia have day talk. Make all that end of day stuff D2 pretty interesting.

[shannon]

VOTE: Ranmaru

Do you have a case behind this one too?

People to vote for the win, in order: Ranmaru, Rach, Tenshii (just in case you were targeted BTD and the doc protected you).

Why in that order? Why not NM?

Not Mafia was the first on the Aristo lynch and he persuaded others to join (despite my misguided efforts to lynch BTD). That's enough for a town read, for me.

They're in order of scummiest > least according to me. I am feeling towny about you, but I can't be sure of it hence you're on the list but in last place.

Rach hammered when it looked like there might otherwise be a no lynch. (And rightly so, I was asleep and we would've NLed). I'm a wee bit suspicious that that could be a town cred thing for Scum Rach. I.e. if she'd not done it, people would have asked why and she'd have been in trouble today.

But I'm more suspicious of Ranmaru bussing, in position 3 on the final wagon. He only moved when BTD asked him to (and at that point BTD was un-cced town), and after that he was 'still willing to move to NM'. That to me is dodgy.

I think we'll win just by lynching Ranmaru, but if we don't, it's Rach and then you in that order.

[shannon]

VOTE: Ranmaru

And yes, I was Townreading Not Mafia quite strongly. Not Mafia and Tenshii were my strongest Townreads but Not Mafia looked like an easy lynch for scum to push so I protected Tenshii.

If scum are competent, I highly doubt they would target Tenshii.

I mean target me.

It's probably a moot point but I disagree with your assessment, I think if you're scum and someone has claimed a PR, you definitely target them. I think the same for the doc, they wouldn't try to outguess scum they'd just protect the PR.

So I think it's less likely that you and scum both targeted Tenshii, and more likely that scum and the doc both targeted you.

Maybe I am being too quick with my lynch list. What was your justification for such a strong town read on Tenshii that you thought she was worth protecting?

[shannon]

Because of WIFOM?

The simplest scum play is to target the known PR. If they think that PR will have doc protection, they target someone else instead. If the doc thinks that the scum will target (someone other than the known PR), they target the non-PR as well ... and if the scum think that the doc will do *that*, then they target the known PR after all. So, just to be safe, the doc should target the night doc.

I guess that's the thing about you being outed, you've saved yourself from the lynch (hooray for a confirmed townie) but taken potential night protection off of someone else. But then, the doc is also not going to accidentally protect scum. So, swings and roundabouts.

Anyway, enough of my theorising, who are we lynching today?

[shannon]

One of BTD or Shannon should flip to NM.

I thought this was a silly idea until I read NM's post.

I could easily have pushed Rach, I chose not to. I knew BTD was PR and didn't push him when I easily could have. I came on near the end of the day and forced through the Aristo lynch.

It's Ranmaru

This ... doesn't seem like a town post. The whole 'I could have pushed anyone' thing is like you asking for town credit for bussing.

[shannon]

???

[shannon]

Is anyone around?

[shannon]

Shannon, vote NM. It's either him or me at this point. You choose to move or stay.

Why are you excluding Rach from the list of candidates? We've got plenty of time to choose someone, no rush.

Rach, vote Ranmaru. It's either him or NM at this point. You choose to move or stay.

Why are you excluding me and creating a choice between your scum read and your second highest town read? Why exclude Rach herself from the options? We've got plenty of time to choose someone, no rush.

[shannon]

Why are you questioning the doc?

Because being the even night doc doesn't mean he's automatically correct in his reads

We still have plenty of time to make a choice, so let's not get suckered in to picking one of two people just because they're the largest wagons at the moment.

(Having said that: I still want Ranmaru)

[shannon]

This still looks really damning for Ranmaru, IMHO. Keeping in mind that I didn't see it happen live, it looks like Ranmaru just got dragged in for the town cred.

Where is everyone? Please hurry. We have just over 1 hour left. We need to lynch today.

PEdit: Ranmaru, are you willing to join Aristo?

Yes I am.

Vote: Aristo

Still willing to move to NM.

VOTE: Ari

Sigh do we have enough to prevent a NL or not

[shannon]

Day 1 VC #14

BTD6_maker (2) - Tenshii, shannon
Aristo (0) -
Ranmaru (0) -
Tenshii (0) -
Not_Mafia (1) - Rach
shannon (0) -
grapes (2) - BTD6_Maker, Magna
Rach (0) -
Magna (4) (L-1) - Ranmaru, Not_Mafia, grapes, Aristo
Not Voting (0) -

Lynch Threshold

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline

Day 1 will end on October 8, 2016 Noon EDT or in (expired on 2016-10-08 11:59:59).

Moderator Notes

Moderator V/LA every Friday until November 11. Moderator V/LA on October 1, October 8 and November 5.

Unless the site goes down, there are no plans to extend the deadline.

Moderator V/LA this weekend -- Pieguyn will manage this Saturday.

Since you all are so determined

PLEASE look at NM tomorrow I am sure he is scum

I am not so sure about MoI but we have 5 hours uggh

Did he ever claim?

Someone asked whether I looked at the D1 wagon, so here it is at end of day. Magna self hammered of course. Unfortunately I have to run without taking a deep look at it. I will say it's interesting that Rach was making a late day push on NM, seems unlikely as a bus and kinda weird from scum rach (who would have no reason to push NM in particular, vs any other townie who might get lynched D2), so Rach is on the town list good and proper now. I don't think there was enough attention on Aristo at this point for Scum Rach to be trying to crate a counter wagon to his for D2 so yeah. Rach town. Not Mafia potentially scum, or Rach was wrong.

Lynch pool for today now leaning toward Ranmaru, Not Mafia, Tenshii (just because it's possible that Tenshii targeted BTD and the doc saved BTD).

[shannon]

I really think it needs to be Ranmaru today, in my mind his behaviour points to him and POE does too. We are only looking for one more scum, and to me he is it.

- Scum Not Mafia wouldn't have started a push on Aristo so late on D2. I was pretty forceful in my push on BTD (sorry BTD) and he could have easily voted there with Aristo and that probably would have made BTD a strong enough wagon to get mislynched.

- Scum Tenshii would have been 'persuaded' by BTD and me today and hammered Town Ranmaru by now. Even if Ranmaru is town, it's still reasonable to assume that it's also a town wagon and so joining it is low risk for scum and I think Tenshii can see that.

- Rach has remained steadfast on Not Mafia, which as I said above, seemed to lack purpose from a scum POV. It's not like she couldn't just hit Town Ranmaru right now, for the same reasons as Tenshii.

Rach do you have a case on Not Mafia that doesn't refer directly back to a previous game?

[shannon]

Lynch pool for today now leaning toward Ranmaru, Not Mafia, Tenshii (just because it's possible that Tenshii targeted BTD and the doc saved BTD).

Join NM wagon. You won't. No balls.

I'm a girl so no, no balls. And I'm not going to be 'dared' in to voting for someone.

It's gotta be Ranmaru.

[shannon]

At least this is kind of reinforcing Tenshii as town, because I think Scum Tenshii would just hammer Ranmaru. (Opinion subject to WIFOM)

[shannon]

Simply put, I think Ranmaru is scummier. Everyone else, I have very good reasons to town read and a little reason that says 'yeah but they could be scum'. Ranmaru I don't really have much to say that he's town at all.

What makes you think that NM is so much worse than Ranmaru?

[shannon]

Here's what I'm gonna do. I'm going to review everyone on the list, and post their scum stuff and their town stuff. Then you know why I'm at where I'm at, and if I find something along the way that changes the ledger, I'll change my vote. OK?

[shannon]

First up, Not Mafia

Pros:

Scum read CR on D1, and pushed it through to an Aristo lynch on D2.

Constant challenging of Aristo D2. It's just so out there, and so little analysis (I'm not saying none, just little) to get Aristo to participate. Saved the day when it looked like I might have accidentally set up a BTD lynch. Could easily have let BTD go through/pushed BTD through if scum, but came back and went on about Aristo.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Aristophanes

Who's scum Aristo?

Aristo full reads list please

Aristo+Ranmaru

Rach what do you think of Aristo?

The solution is to lynch Aristo

Thouhts on an Aristo lynch Ramaru?

Gun to your head, Aristo town or scum?

Tenshii or shannon please unvote, I don't want Ranmaru to have the hammer

And Aristo claim

Hammer Aristo

Not really, Aristo is consistently site active and all he has done is slither on the Rach wagon

This I like, because it agrees with my perspective -

Can we flashwagon Ranmaru for trying to blag a no lynch

Think Abouties:

I've been known to bus

Cons:

Fake hammered Magna in 396 - this sort of thing just annoys me and seems unnecessary from town



Overall: If this is a scum slot then they're playing the very long (and unnecessary, I'd think?) con. Much simpler and less attention-grabbing to have let the BTD lynch happen and me to take the heat for it. TOWN

[shannon]

Tenshii is next.

Pros:

Lots of in-depth questioning in the early days. Asking people about their motivations and to explain when they say things like 'this is scum'.


Think About:

In reviewing the ISO I see quite a few defenses of me, e.g. 222. I'm not sure whether I'm being buddied here, especially as Tenshii seems adamant about lynching BTD as D2 goes on. Tinfoil time: Tenshii thinks everyone was so convinced by Magna's insistence that I am town, that he has hitched himself to my wagon, so to speak.


Cons:

Something about this reads as vaguely scummy to me, but I can't put my finger on it.

My vote stands. Both dead Town scumread this slot, and so do I. Thus this is my optimal vote.

Where did Grapes SR Arist?

We policy lynch Rach if she ends up not posting shit today too. Idgaf. Not going to lylo with that.

And what the crap Rach? You were so good on NM + Ari being the scumteam and then you just flipped on BTD like that?

[shannon]

I forgot the main pro for Tenshii, which is that BTD claims to have doctored him last night. I still maintain that this could go either way, and that BTD himself might have been both targeted and protected, leaving Tenshii unsure at best or scum at worst.

[shannon]

Rach next. Her ISO isn't as bad as I remembered.

Pros:

When she's here, she posts. E.g. 90
Long push on Not Mafia seems genuine ... It's in the spoilers

Spoiler:

no you did your naked vote thingy which always makes me suspicious of you NM and if we were not on deadline I would be voting you right now.

Because right now NM is reminding me so much of rarefaction it is pinging me HARD

I generally do not unvote until I have a serious mafia case

Don't have a major case, but i do think NM is scummier than you are,

VOTE: NM

Since you all are so determined

PLEASE look at NM tomorrow I am sure he is scum

I am not so sure about MoI but we have 5 hours uggh

Did he ever claim?

You know that does not exactly make my heart go pitta pat there NM, since that does not clear YOUR slot.

Yeah Aris dude why are you town leaning reading NM?

This feels very much like his play in rarefaction.

And NO ONE believed me for the longest time until FINALLY in the rarefaction phase they did.

meh I totally get it and you are right I have been totally useless in this game

I am VT so not a big loss

Still think NM is scum though, but doubt you all will see it til later.

He is probably bussing though so going with ari

Hence the reason I asked about if he bussed or not.

VOTE: Ari

Votes consistently with her reads. Unvoted BTD once he claimed, and then went on the Ari wagon after it became clear that NM wasn't going to get through. I don't see any vote hopping or opportunistic change of mind here.

VOTE: BTD


Reads

Town (strongest to weakest)

Shannon
Ran
Tenshi
Ari

Scum (strongest to weakest)
NM
BTD

Cons:

Extensive VLA, but I think we've established that's genuine and not hiding out from anything. Overall, I reckon TOWN

[shannon]

Ranmaru still to go, I've gotta go walk the doge.

Out of the three so far, I've got to say that Tenshii looks worst - it's only the non-death last night that makes him look good, and I think it's explainable by BTD being the target.

[shannon]

Ranmaru is next. This one was hard because there's so much content and it's quite dense.

Pros -

Is actively asking questions of *several* players (Grapes, Magna, Me) early on in the game, and provides detailed read on these people (and also CR, who became Aristo) in 220


Thinky - I'm going to put these in the 'think about' category rather than the scum tells, because I'm possibly conf biased at this point. I just want everybody to think about these things.

In 276 Grapes called him out for scummily pushing on me - eventually he dropped it and I became a town read, and it seemed to happen really quickly and based only on reading another game of mine. It felt at the time like he was worried about being caught out, and it still seems that way a bit.

A few posts about Aristo (but not really interacting with him) that to me could constitute distancing. I'm aware that at this point I could be conf biased, so I'd like to hear from the people on Not Mafia what they think about these -

Spoiler:

Aristo, I'd like a stance or two from you. Where do you stand in terms of wagons?

I like that Aristo is giving some content but I'd like more from both of them before having a solid stance. I really can't read anything from Not_Mafia with that naked vote. Can you go more into NM? Also what do you mean flying the coup?

Null. Aristo is a little better off than Rach at the moment since he has more content than her.

Alright. So at the moment, I don't see the Aristo case. I don't get it.

I see that Rach has a scumread of NM, and uses that he is bussing pre-flip to join NM's wagon. I find that suspect. I also think she claimed early to gain town cred, since Mafia might want to claim Doctor if they are going down. She did this early without reason to have the higher ground.

So between Aristo and Rach, I think a Rach wagon is the way to go today.

Unvote; Vote: Rach

I also noted that he has *thrice* put someone at L-1: BTD in 585 and then Rach in 661 and Aristo in 745. This, to me, looks like someone who's afraid of not being on the wagon.

[shannon]

PS doge liked his walk, lots of halloweeny kiddies running around and wanting to pat him, so that was nice

[shannon]

@Rach I just read NM's post in that Rarefaction game, and I don't really see the similarities? Certainly early game here he was posting heaps more (and in more depth) than there. What parallels exactly would you like to draw?

[shannon]

My strongest scum read is on Ranmaru because of scumminess, but Tenshii's ISO is kind of lacking in towniness - it'd be null for me were it not BTD vouching for him.

[shannon]

uggh

Shannon and btd are sold on it being Ran

Ran and NM are clearly not going to self vote

I guess I have no choice

I do not want to see a NL

INTENT TO HAMMER

Please if you guys are wrong about this please take a closer look at NM tomorrow.

We still have heaps of time, no need to give intent yet x

[shannon]

We're not going to get anywhere by forming immovable factions and saying things like 'his ISO is town' or 'her iso is just scummy'. I would love it if everyone made a bit more of an effort to point out specific examples of things that are towny/scummy. Or even take a look at the posts I made, and poke holes in them/add to them/discuss them.

[shannon]

@Not Mafia - If you're town, you're throwing the game by continuing with the one liners. Rach has identified that as one of your scum tells and looking back on your activity in other games that seems fair. Keep doing it, and I'm voting you. If you're town, ask some real questions or provide some real analysis, please.

[shannon]

UNVOTE:

[shannon]

One liners are a me tell not a scum tell, I'm always concise

Further digging shows that this is true.

What I don't get is why you'd rather just assert something like 'he's scum' without giving backup info? It doesn't really help the rest of us to see things your way.

[shannon]

Yes, that's true, but let's not let it prevent us from trying

[shannon]

Please give a case on him Not Mafia

[shannon]

Yeah I did. I did it so Ranmaru feels like he can give a case on not mafia with the chance of actually persuading someone, and not mafia has to make the case on Ranmaru instead of just waiting for someone to hammer out of frustration.

[shannon]

I said in an earlier post that Tenshi doesn't look town to me, it's only BTD's protection of her that makes her conf town, and that could easily have been Tenshi as scum. So I want to explore that a bit too, though Tenshi isn't here so that makes it hard.

[shannon]

If no one has come up with anything new by tomorrow morning (my time, it's currently almost 4PM so give it 16 hours from now) I'll hammer, but I think it's Ran and not NM.

Also for the love of god, Doc, please get on our even night doc x

[shannon]

What it really comes down to NM is that if you're town you're not playing to your wincon right now. Make a case on ranmaru instead of making assertions.

[shannon]

What is making you think it could be Tenshi?

[shannon]

Mod

coudl we please get a vote count just for the timer? xo

[shannon]

Awesome timing with the vote count Giant wall incoming - - please read it because I don't know whether I'll be back online today (it's Friday for me) and I think that the Day ends at midnight my time Saturday, so this could be my last substantive post before EOD.

I will come out and say this again:

I think not mafia is town

. Take away his short posting, which yep, he does do as each alignment and even in social posts here, and what is the case for him being scum?

Not Mafia led the push on Aristo, who was at that time under almost no threat, because I'd effectively started a wagon on BTD that would've taken off. Remember, we had a whole bunch of people willing to support the main wagon to avoid a no lynch, but Not Mafia came in and went Aristo and really pushed it. Not Mafia basically saved D1, and if that's a bus for town cred, it's a massive one. So if someone could hammer the Ranmaru wagon, that'd be great. VOTE: Ranmaru

I also want to talk about Tenshii. Earlier I went through his ISO and found basically nothing to commend him as town. He's effectively null, with the only reason to call him town being that BTD doctored him. So that's someone I'd like to look at in future.

The other wild card is Rach, but my gut feel is that if she was scum she'd have subbed out by now.

In case I don't get back to the game today and the Day is over before I post again (and also in case I'm super accurate and get night killed)

- Doc to always be on BTD. Protect who you *know* is town, not who you *think* is town. Don't give scum an easy town kill, make them work for it. Having both of you alive N4 could be really handy.
- Doc don't claim until as late in the game as possible. Don't claim if you don't 100% have to (Not Mafia if you're doc, don't claim it right now I think I'm going to be able to save you. Ranmaru I hope I'm going to lynch you today, if you're doc, you suck at playing doc, I can't give an honest assessment of whether you should claim now so up to you). Try to claim on an even night and then protect each other so we get to see who scum targets for the night kill.
- Stop claiming VT without pressure to claim, you're only narrowing down the doc options


Worst case scenario going forward is that *if we don't prevent any night kills* we have mislynches available today and D4 before we get to MYLO and LYLO. It's highly likely that scum will try to target 'confirmed' townies, so that's BTD, and probably me (I think you all town read me?), and Tenshii (who I think could be scum but I know everyone else disagrees).

I would say - If we lynch Ranmaru today and it's wrong, go for Rach next. If we lynch Not Mafia today and it's wrong, go for Ranmaru. Unless we buy more days with good night kill protects, we've gotta sort Tenshii in LYLO.

Anyway, this is all based on today's info and we'll get more tomorrow. I just wanted to be 100% clear about where I stand right now, since the Day will possibly end while I'm offline and history says I get night killed when I'm right - and I think I'm right about either Ran or Tenshii being the last scum.


The math for my mislynch calcs

Spoiler:

Currently D3 - 7 town 1 scum (assume a mislynch)
N3 starts with 6:1 and ends with 5:1
D4 starts with 5:1 and ends with 4:1
N4 starts with 4:1 and ends with 3:1
D5 is MYLO, no lynch
N5 starts with 3:1 and ends with 2:1
D6 is LYLO, must win

[shannon]

Woo hoo winner! Yeah I knew it was Ranmaru! I've gone from no town wins to two town wins in 2 days.

PS )I was the doctor x

[shannon]

Interesting to read in the dead thread that the strategy was supposed to have us both claim doc on D2. Also good job BTD with the protect on Tenshii.

I knew I was toast that's why I posted so much in my 'last post' about who was scum and why. Pretty happy with the win

[shannon]

Yes I am.

Vote: Aristo

Still willing to move to NM.

For me, this was the tell

[shannon]

Just read the dead PT - highly entertaining. A pity we didn't get Aristo's perspective after his lynch, after Ranmaru was all like YAaaaaay we're so killing it.

PS my comment at the start about finally getting a town win - I literally hadn't had one yet, and I say that every game as town or scum. (Until now!) So it's funny that it was taken as a PR tell when actually for me it's NAI.

[shannon]

PS - Aristo, I doctored you N1 and I doctored BTD N2. Luckily BTD knew what was up with Tenshii (and luckily I got it together D2 and resisted the NM wagon) or it would have been very different for town.

[shannon]

I

still

don't get the Grapes kill.

Yeah, you shoulda killed me like you planned. Even if I hadn't been the doc, the fact that literally everyone town read me (despite me not claiming anything) should have been a flag that I had to go. Not to mention, no one would have been singled out as my killer, since everyone town read me.

[shannon]

Not Mafia totally deserved that award, he saved us from lynching BTD D1, and everything flowed from there. I'm really glad I was able to persuade Rach off of his wagon, but geez NM, you don't make it easy on yourself!

[shannon]

Yep, that was my thinking too. Well done Rach