Micro 656: Dem Tryouts 4 - GAME OVER

[GuiltyLion]

so I haven't read the game yet, but I'm of the opinion that no-lynching is optimal on D1 in this setup

[GuiltyLion]

Guys when I die please don't lynch Vedith cause he's totally not my partner

whoever is the scum that's not scum with Jester should shoot this

[GuiltyLion]

actually wait now on page 4 I'm getting the impression that Jester is town trying to soak a night-shot for some reason

[GuiltyLion]

reads:

town: ThinkBig, GreyICE, Jester

scumteam 1: Vedith, Flames
scumteam 2: Aero, Infinity

game solved, let's go to night so scum can shoot eachother. While I would be most willing to lynch Vedith or Flames today, I also think the risk of a mislynch on a townie is too high for a D1 lynch.

VOTE: No lynch

[GuiltyLion]

GL, it always amazes me how you have a shit entrance, buddy.

what about it is shit

[GuiltyLion]

However I can understand why GL would want a no-lynch.
I just think we have a high enough chance of lynching scum that NL is not my first choice.

I am sympathetic to this view, but I strongly doubt that both scumteams would actually kill a townie tonight. Therefore I see no-lynch as a strictly pro-utility move: either a scum dies and town has a better numbers advantage and information to work with, or (worst-case scenario) we enter D2 with exactly the same information we currently have, and then we can go ahead and lynch as if it were D1. Losing a vest at night is not as big of a town loss as mislynching a townie.

[GuiltyLion]

However I can understand why GL would want a no-lynch.
I just think we have a high enough chance of lynching scum that NL is not my first choice.

actually the more I think about it the more I'm finding this post scummy. Right after implying my predecessor was scummy, Gamma is implicitly assuming that I'm town. If Gamma had a real scumread on me then he wouldn't say he "understood" why I "want" a no-lynch, he'd be thinking about possible scum motive behind my posting.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not saying I townread you for that post
I just understand why people on either side would want to NL
It's a NAI post of yours

why would scum want to NL when lynching is their best way to get rid of opposition (town and other scum)

[GuiltyLion]

A no lynch means that scum do not have to care too much about who they kill. It's common sense.
If they both hit town, we go into day 2 with the same information with either a dead town (if both shoot the same) or 2 BP's popped.

scum would absolutely have to care about who they kill. For them it's kill-or-be-killed, because if they have one member against the other team's two then they lose numbers and are basically guaranteed to lose almost any endgame scenario unless they hit other scum on the immediate next day lynch.

I don't think 2 BP's popped is a big deal at all... it becomes almost a normal game of mafia at that point from the town's perspective. I don't think the odds of both shooting the same are that high either, in this thread Ircher calculated 32% chance that two townies get shot, and 8% chance that a townie dies.

And if we lynch town then we go into day 2 with the exact same possible consequences only also guaranteed to be missing a townie and guaranteed vote minority.

[GuiltyLion]

allow me to take a second and pat myself on the back here for that no-lynch

I'll post more later today, gotta run off to work

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Gamma

For hammering before giving an intent to hammer, as well as ending the DP pre maturely.

VOTE: ThinkBig
For being a damn dirty hypocrite.

This is a scummy vote, it's clear TB genuinely thought you were the hammer regardless of his alignment. Hypocrisy is not a scumtell

PE: I find that explanation from ThinkBig to be rather lame. It was made pretty clear how No Lynches work, and as a new player you don't have the luxury of saying "oh I assumed it worked the way it usually does."

and this is scummy as well for similar reasons

Pine

- why does not knowing how no lynches work make TB scummy? Are you accusing him of hammering no-lynch while knowing that it was a hammer, or are you accusing him of voting Gamma for a reason that was false?

[GuiltyLion]

Oh hey, Jester. After your post diarrhea D1, I was expecting to hear more from you. What's with that? Trying to lay low and hope you don't get noticed?

ew

[GuiltyLion]

Dat scumpost

Dat no one gives a shit post.

also, this is not a town reaction

would lynch Vedith or Pine today, can compromise on Gamma

Aero can you restate your case on Gamma again

[GuiltyLion]

something changed recently where mafiascum messages email me directly now instead of going to a folder, got the prod almost instantly

i'm on my way home right now, will read up and post in a bit. been a busy couple of days at work so haven't had time to think about today yet

[GuiltyLion]

Okay, I am here and caught up

@rest. I'm thinking of lynching outside of Pine and Gamma.
They are obviously a scum team. Lynching the solo scum gives us 1 less kill, a useless scum role and unknown knowledge to who has and hasn't got a BP from a scum side.

This is a noteworthy post, on its face it is not a bad idea. But it makes me think you are the solo scum trying to drive a mislynch on town

[GuiltyLion]

@Pine- to confirm you think Gamma is...?

@rest. I'm thinking of lynching outside of Pine and Gamma.
They are obviously a scum team. Lynching the solo scum gives us 1 less kill, a useless scum role and unknown knowledge to who has and hasn't got a BP from a scum side.

Down with this
But I'm watching you

and this reply strongly points to Gamma as scum, chomping at the bit for the free mislynch

@Aero, @ThinkBig, @Jester

- Vedith/Pine/Gamma today. I'd like to do Vedith imo, for the reasons as laid out by Vedith

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Vedith

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: The_Jester

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, I should have given the standard 2 minutes notice before I hammered

[GuiltyLion]

gg all! I enjoyed playing with everyone. And thanks for modding and letting me replace in, shos! This is a fun set-up

I think town!me would have had Jester down as town as well. It was pretty clear to me that he was trying to game-solve, even if he was doing it in a roundabout trolling way

Vedith I had you as guaranteed scum

Aero I'd love to see that spreadsheet

[GuiltyLion]

I did think NL was good for town, although GreyICE brought up some good points about how mislynching earlier is better for town than mislynching later. It did feel a lot more scumsided to me once it played out having town have a scum die at night, lynch a scum the next day, and still wind up immediately in MYLO.

And I will say that lynching the solo scum on D2 was definitely not good for town, the game would have been a lot tougher for Scum B if Pine or I got lynched instead of Vedith. so going into N3 with a 3:1:1 or 2:1:1 ratio feels like town's best chance of winning this setup, and thinking about it from that perspective it's probably better to just lynch on D1.