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Post #33 (isolation #3) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:14 am
Postby NJAC »
In post 32, Infinity 324 wrote:The issue is just that, especially on d1, the read that people are most confident on isn't necessarily the most accurate.
We have to put our money onto something, so there's obviously always a risk. Risk seems to be lower when trying a town read's segment.
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Post #44 (isolation #5) » Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:06 pm
Postby NJAC »
In post 42, Imperium wrote:NJAC - You guessed infinity as scum really early. Do you have a read on him here?
Not yet. Maybe it's worth mentioning that my scum read on him kinda solidified as the previous game advanced. With the restart I'm a bit less confident about how to read him.
Very outdated and probably not relevant now, but at that moment it was mostly gut. Now that I know Blade Dancer is actually Titus it changes my initial impressions on her slot.
In post 42, Imperium wrote:NJAC - You guessed infinity as scum really early. Do you have a read on him here?
Not yet. Maybe it's worth mentioning that my scum read on him kinda solidified as the previous game advanced. With the restart I'm a bit less confident about how to read him.
But your vote on him, which was a large part due to meta (60%), came on post 25 and then you elaborated in post 28 and didn't post again except to say you were v/la for the weekend. How did it evolve as the game progressed when it came really super early. If you read him based in large part on meta, how are you unsure how to read him this game?
Also you seem interested in partaking in setup discussion this one. Why weren't you in the last one?
The scum read on him solidified as he was trying to lead the game, by convincing others to follow his plan. The owl guy, who broke the rules in the previous game, brought a quote from the discussion thread on this setup, that I was also going to bring into the game to make my case against Infinity, but I didn't have the time.
I played another game in which Infinity was scum, and I was town reading him. He was active and pro-town in that game, so when I saw his name in this game (the previous one, not the restart) and his post style seemed kinda similar to that game, I decided to vote him. In this restart I think those initial impressions are not present anymore, so that's why I said I'm a bit less confident about how to read him, especially early in the game.
And I was partaking in setup discussion because that's something I was also going to do in the previous thread but when I was going to say it the owl guy had already broken the rules and the game was about to restart.
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Post #427 (isolation #25) » Mon Oct 24, 2016 10:31 am
Postby NJAC »
I was thinking that decisions on Imperium's segment were going too fast. There was no resistance to the strategy of following. I wanted to give scum a chance to generate doubts about it, but it didn't happen.
On the other hand I was really concerned about the possibility of Imperium being scum.
In post 396, Peptobislawl wrote:Looking at that votecount made me realize that if ved and inpern are scum, town loses already. I'm townreading both at the moment, but i'd much rather not put all of town's eggs in one basket. As such,
Flee
This is towny imo, scum would probably just let NJAC flee
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Post #433 (isolation #28) » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:15 am
Postby NJAC »
In post 396, Peptobislawl wrote:Looking at that votecount made me realize that if ved and inpern are scum, town loses already. I'm townreading both at the moment, but i'd much rather not put all of town's eggs in one basket. As such,
Flee
Out of curiosity, did you realize that only because you saw the votecount or was it something else?
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Post #437 (isolation #31) » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:29 am
Postby NJAC »
In post 356, Vedith wrote:But your plan means that NM has to go with it.
This way, it confirms us a town 100%, correct?
In post 367, Vedith wrote:I don't actually understand that voting system now lol.
I thought if they are scum then I take them out of the game but I stay in?
In post 404, Vedith wrote:I don't really have much clue to what is happening.
Surely if Imperium is proven town and we get a proven town tomorrow, we can't lose?
In post 408, Vedith wrote:So what do we do now?
If Imperium is confirmed we can't lose now?
Why are you asking these questions instead of reading the first posts of the thread? I don't think you're the kind of player that play in such an uninformed way.
In post 437, NJAC wrote:Why are you asking these questions instead of reading the first posts of the thread? I don't think you're the kind of player that play in such an uninformed way.
Your only experience with me I didn't even read my result from mod right. Tell me again the type of player I am.
In post 396, Peptobislawl wrote:Looking at that votecount made me realize that if ved and inpern are scum, town loses already. I'm townreading both at the moment, but i'd much rather not put all of town's eggs in one basket. As such,
Flee
Out of curiosity, did you realize that only because you saw the votecount or was it something else?
I hadn't realized just how fast everyone desired to trust until I saw the votecount. It was more something i had thought about, but hadn't really worried about because i was townreading inpern and i thought there were ~3 people yet to vote. When i saw the count, I realized I didn't have as much time left to reach a conclusion as I thought I did, so I revote quickly.
In short, it made me realize what was really happening votewise and I didn't like it, so I changed.
And did you have into account my 378 when deciding to flee?
What gave you the impression that I'm more switched on?
Not sure I like the 180 turn around from you when I called you out for calling us town though.
I thought your D1 push on Infinity and Creature was coming from a confident and informed player who seemed to know what he was doing. Like, I thought you were more engaged and focused on this game (I forgot the issue with your night results in that previous game).
But after skimming your ISO, I see that you didn't say anything that shows you were informed about the mechanics in this game. Also, now that I remember how you misread your PM in that game, I can see that you may have misread/overlooked the first posts.
Also I won't call it a 180 turn around. I'm just still trying to get some reads.
In post 427, NJAC wrote:I was thinking that decisions on Imperium's segment were going too fast. There was no resistance to the strategy of following. I wanted to give scum a chance to generate doubts about it, but it didn't happen.
On the other hand I was really concerned about the possibility of Imperium being scum.
Why did you want to give scum the chance to genera doubt? Didn't you effectively do that yourself?
Why were you concerned about the possibility of us being scum but literally do nothing to figure it out but try to float paranoia?
In post 427, NJAC wrote:I was thinking that decisions on Imperium's segment were going too fast. There was no resistance to the strategy of following. I wanted to give scum a chance to generate doubts about it, but it didn't happen.
On the other hand I was really concerned about the possibility of Imperium being scum.
Why did you want to give scum the chance to genera doubt? Didn't you effectively do that yourself?
Why were you concerned about the possibility of us being scum but literally do nothing to figure it out but try to float paranoia?
I prefer not to answer this now.
Can you answer the purple part? You can keep the first question.
I was concerned about that possibility because as I said, a Vedith+Imperium scumpair scenario was auto lose for us. And I repeat that the Follow strategy was getting no resistance. I did what I thought was necessary to figure out Imperium's alignment, according to my book.
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Post #602 (isolation #46) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:50 am
Postby NJAC »
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We are currently 9 players alive: 1 confirmed townie, 6 unconfirmed townies, 2 scum.
From the 8 remaining players whose alignments are unknown we can get: Without_Repetition_Combination(8;2) = 28 possible scumpairs.
The 7 townies can choose 7 of 28 scumpairs. We only need one of those 7 to be right. Our currents odds are 7/28 = 25%.
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Let's say we the 7 townies survive another segment (by fleeing or deciding correctly to follow or distrust), and let's assume that segment is a townie's segment:
We'll have on D3: 9 players alive: 2 confirmed townies, 5 unconfirmed townies, 2 scum.
From the 7 remaining players whose alignments are unknown we can get: Without_Repetition_Combination(7;2) = 21 possible scumpairs.
The 7 townies can choose 7 of 21 scumpairs. We only need one of those 7 to be right. Our odds would be 7/21 = 33.33%.
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From the POV of each townie they have to decide among a more reduced pool of scumpairs, by excluding themselves from that pool. Our current scenario means each townie has to choose a scumpair from 21 possible (33.33%). And on D3, after trying a townie's segment and all 7 townies surviving, each townie has to choose among 15 possible scumpairs (46.66%).
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Post #604 (isolation #48) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:28 am
Postby NJAC »
Here are the current 21 possible scumpairs (from my POV considering 7 players: N_M, Realeo, Infinity, Pepto, Creature, Vedith and Titus):
If I take in consideration my current reads it's something like this (green = at least one town read; orange = one null read + one scum read; red = both scum reads; white = undecided):
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Post #606 (isolation #50) » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:09 am
Postby NJAC »
Each of us should list the 7 most likely scumpairs, according to our reads (ideally in order of likelihood). We should then see which are the top 7 scumpairs, then each of us choose one of those and, ideally, stick with that to the end.
.
.
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