Micro 667 - Chosen Mafia (Game Over)
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Austin, TX
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
Creature is town purely based on activity level (though may have to meta dive his scum games for comparison). Likewise Human Sequencer.
Most likely there is one mafioso on the nn30 wagon, and one off.
On the wagon:Creature, TTTT, PsychoticDave, Hiraki,Grendel
Off the wagon:,nn30Human Sequencer, Tenshii,Ümläüt
VOTE: Tenshii“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Why is this?Creature wrote:At least Tenshii is unlikely to be Chosen if I am also Chosen.
Nope, that's it. I just got here and I'm kind of busy at work today. I'll finish reading later and maybe I'll change my mind.In post 801, TTTT wrote:@umlaut
plz tell me there is more to your vote on Tenshii than VCA on day2 of a micro“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Not really sure. I can see a case for you (well, your predecessor) or TTTT, but I haven't ruled Dave out either.In post 798, Hiraki wrote:Umlaut - who is the scum who's on the wagon?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Can you elaborate on these reads? TTTT in particular.In post 633, Tenshii wrote:I townread Creature, TTTT, PsychoticDave“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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I don't think I said I would explain myself, and I wasn't particularly planning to. I don't have anything to explain right now.In post 821, Hiraki wrote:
Nothing at the moment - I think he has some time to explain himself a bit more, as he said he would - don't you?In post 820, Tenshii wrote:Then do you scumread Umlaut for his VCA POE on me?
Replacing into shadowwehz's slot doesn't help a SR though.
If you're talking about shaddowez, I'm not totally sure what the case on him is/was, but if it's just inactivity, that's an okay reason to suspect someone while they're in the game, but a really bad reason once they flake out.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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This reasoning feels townish to me. Which is not to say I totally buy this as a tell.In post 706, TTTT wrote:That's almost exactly what I expected as a scum response.
An expected townie response from Dave would have been something like...
"His ISO was full of unreadable wall posts. I skimmed and it didn't look like scum."“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ah, the old "A implies B, but not A, therefore not B" syllogism.In post 822, PsychoticDave wrote:
If Creature and Human are Town based on activity, that logic makes you(r slot) scum.In post 796, Ümläüt wrote:Creature is town purely based on activity level (though may have to meta dive his scum games for comparison). Likewise Human Sequencer.
Most likely there is one mafioso on the nn30 wagon, and one off.
On the wagon:Creature, TTTT, PsychoticDave, Hiraki,Grendel
Off the wagon:,nn30Human Sequencer, Tenshii,Ümläüt
VOTE: Tenshii
Do you seriously think this is a good point?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Oh, while you're here:
I know this is ages ago in the game, but I'm new, so humor me. Which of Creature's prior posts gave you this impression? How does acting like he doesn't know look different from genuinely not knowing?In post 100, PsychoticDave wrote:I'm getting the feeling that Creature is Mafia and knows who the Chosen Townies are, so he's trying to act like he doesn't know.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Also, Dave, which two of of the following four syllogisms are valid?
1. "If A, then B. A. Therefore, B."
2. "If A, then B. B. Therefore, A."
3. "If A, then B. Not-A. Therefore, not-B."
4. "If A, then B. Not-B. Therefore, not-A."“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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I hate not voting. I usually vote within a post or two of joining a game. I haven't read every post yet and don't have much of a real read on Tenshii. I'm not at all committed to my vote since I'm not very confident that there is a scum off the wagon (I just think it's the most likely of the three possibilities). Case in point:In post 832, Hiraki wrote:
So your mind didn't change? You are literally placing a read based off of PoE?In post 807, Ümläüt wrote:I'll finish reading later and maybe I'll change my mind.
I accept your invitation.In post 831, Human Sequencer wrote:Umlaut you seem pretty onball, come lynch Dave with me, town has some asinine idea that lynchbait can't be scum for some reason.
VOTE: Psychotic Dave
I don't like the way he's coming at me and, looking back, I don't like the way he came at Creature or TTTT either. He is far more interested in tearing down other players' analysis with these little "ha, gotcha" rejoinders than he is in actually evaluating it.
Then there is of course the claim in 682 and the subsequent backtracking, saying he onlybelieveshe is chosen. The problem with this is that he tore into Creature early on for claiming to be able to look at the game and make an educated guess as to who is chosen, brushing off the actual reasoning involved. So to then come out and flat-out say "I am absolutely sure I am chosen" is completely inconsistent and I can't understand the town mindset that leads to both those events. But I can definitely understand the scum mindset of "fakeclaim, then backpedal when you're called out on it."
I feel pretty good about this.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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QFTIn post 729, Human Sequencer wrote:What out of these two realities seems more realistic to you?
1. Dave is town. Dave spends all game posting nothing of value. As soon as Dave is run up, he claims chosen to try and get Human lynched because he believes Human is scum, even though he knows he may not be chosen. He gambles that the other players won't bother reading into the setup, and instead hopes Human will be flashlynched. He then comes to believe that he is Chosen townie, based on Human pushing him.
2. Dave is scum. Dave gets run up, and then claims chosen because he misunderstands the setup and assumes that Chosen townies get a different role PM. As soon as he is proven wrong, he backs out of it and writes it off as a gambit. He then comes back later saying that he truly does believe he is Chosen, trying to subtly imply that he always thought that and that's why he claimed, even though he heavily backpedaled on the claim before.
That is an open question to everybody in this game except Dave.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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You mean this question?
I assumed it was rhetorical.In post 826, PsychoticDave wrote:Do you seriously believe activity determines town/scum?
Because by your own logic, that makes you scum.
I think having close to twice as many posts as the next most active player is a pretty strong town tell. I don't think you can just pick the two least active players in the game and say "look, it's scum," particularly when one of them then flakes out of the game.
You didn't answer the question that you quoted in that post, either.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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I just don't see it. But granting this point
arguendo,it's still true that Dave is not the sort of player we want hanging around for lylo, or the sort of player the Mafia is going to kill for us.
Anyway, explain again why bad town makes an impossible fakeclaim, then retracts it, then tries to find some sort of middle ground between retracting it and not.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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So, let's talk about the Mafia's win condition. They absolutelymustget a chosen townie lynched, or else they lose, period. Thus if there is a wagon on a chosen townie, they ought to be doing whatever it takes to push it short of totally outing themselves.
If Dave is chosen, why are town!Human and town!Creature having such a hard time pushing his wagon?
Pedit: Ninja'd by Human.
Pedit again: TTTT, that's not an answer to a "why" question.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Then if you're scum this game you'll lose, because you can't win without getting a CT lynched.In post 871, TTTT wrote:if I'm scum this game I'm trying to stay off any chosen wagons
or at least not try and push too much“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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I just remembered the game is plurality lynch, so it might make more sense for scum to stay off a chosen wagon than it would otherwise. I still think, particularly halfway through the day when anything could still happen, they'd rather jump on it, but I'll concede it's not necessary.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Hi, maybe don't lynch anyone in the next ten minutes.
It looks to me like the Mafia is trying to avoid losing via the chosen mechanic. By increasing the number of lynches they increase the probability we'll eventually hit a chosen.
Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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VOTE: Tenshii
TTTT's jumping on and off Dave wasn't great, but I'd rather lynch this first. Not too committed though, let's take our time and choose right.
Also remember that as long as we lynch non-chosen we're in good shape.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now? Because I'm not. Or I wasn't, until I saw this.In post 896, Human Sequencer wrote:VOTE: TTTT
literally everybody else is town, i reckon TTTT will come out blazing on me today to secure a chosen mislynch so he can then actually win the game (can't endgame chosen townies)
if you're considering lynching me, i recommend no-lynch instead. it's obvious scum has a tactical reason for not killing anybody (need a chosen lynch) and by voting me you're likely just giving scum exactly what they need
And on reflection I'm still not considering it seriously. The way they spearheaded the case on Dave, I really don't think it's likely they're scum. But that post is still weird. Where is this defensiveness coming from, Human?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Explain?In post 916, TTTT wrote:the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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I mean, if we believe Creature and Human are chosen, and we're right, then we win just by not lynching them.
I'm more convinced about Creature than Human, to be honest. It seems almost too convenient for the two chosen to be the two people I was already townreading the most when I entered the game.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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If we take Creature as chosen, then with two otherwise random lynches we have a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and a 1/6 chance of hitting both regular townies, so 2/3 chance to win.
@ModWhat happens if both factions refuse to kill?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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I've never played with Dave. Anyway, I think if we're really approaching that question better to just look at who has the most experience and/or best reputation as town.
Vedith seems to have a strong reputation (no comment on whether it's earned), and shaddowez has the earliest join date by more than a year.
Since I'm in the shaddowez slot now, I seem to be inadvertently arguing for lynching myself. I think it's pretty clear I'm town given how I worked to revitalize the dead Dave wagon on d2, but if we're aiming for the Chosen win I honestly see no reason to think I'm chosen.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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You know, I didn't think about it much since lurking as hard as shaddow did is a pretty understandable reason to be wagoned. (Not saying it's a great reason on day 1—better to let replacement bait be replaced—but it certainly happens enough.) But the fact that Dave was on the wagon is at least some positive evidence I'm chosen.
We really haven't done much analysis of Dave yet, actually. Here's his complete vote log.
Day 1Day 2I think being voted to L-1 by Dave is reasonably strong evidence that I'm town, but pretty weak evidence that I'm chosen. nn30 wasn't chosen, after all, and Dave sandwiched his vote for me between votes for him. I suspect he really did just want to lynch any townie and end the day at that point.
Dave's vote for Creature, on the other hand, is fairly strong evidence of his being chosen. I just don't see any other compelling reason to try and start a wagon from scratch on a player as easy to townread as Creature, when you already have a great mislynch candidate in Vedith. His vote on Human is also evidence that Human is chosen, though not quite as strong since he didn't start that wagon himself.
The living slots Davenevervoted are Tenshii and TTTT. I think we should flip both of these. I want to start with Tenshii, but I'm not so picky about that.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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That seems like a lot of work for one person (getting the L-minus counts in particular can be kind of a pain), and should be distributed among the players. Probably everyone doing their own is not the best plan. Who should analyze whom?
A few nothing-up-my-sleeve options:- Rota in alphabetical order. Creature → Human Sequencer → Tenshi → TTTT → Ümläüt → Creature
- Rota in signup order. Human Sequencer → Ümläüt → Tenshii → Creature → TTTT → Human Sequencer
- Popcorn, starting with Creature.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Eh, on second thought these vote progressions are pretty objective so it's not really that important to distribute the work evenly or anything. I'll do MisaTange/TTTT because he has a slightly lower post count and I'm lazy.
Day 1Day 2Day 3- 892: Hiraki(L-1)
Grendel.
If TTTT is taken for scum, this would suggest Creature and I are chosen, more so Creature than I.
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On a reread, I dislike TTTT's flip-flip on Dave during Day 2. He voted for Dave after the slip, but then changed his mind and said that 'slip' was more likely to come from bad town. This was some time after when the Dave wagon had already stalled.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Tenshii vote progression
Day 1Day 2Day 3- 891: Hiraki(L-2)
PsychoticDave, Creature,nn30.
If Tenshii is taken for scum, this would suggest the chosen are among TTTT, Human Sequencer, and myself.
Conversely, if we believe Creature is chosen, this suggests Tenshii is town. However, given that Creature has been pretty obvtown, this might just mean scum!Tenshii had the sense not to try and lead a lynch on a widely townread player.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Creature vote progression
Day 1- 18: Human Sequencer (L-1)
- 26: unvote
- 66: nn30(L-2)
- 379: shaddowez (L-4)
- 455: unvote
- 474: nn30(L-4)
Day 2Day 3- 890: Hiraki(L-3)
Vedith, TTTT
If Creature is taken for scum, this would suggest I am chosen. Possibly Human as well, though there is no strong evidence for this.
(Again, this is purely hypothetical and for completeness; Creature remains my top townread.)
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Someone else should do me.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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So, I think we mostly agree our two candidates today are Tenshii and TTTT.
If Tenshii is scum this makes it more likely that TTTT is chosen; the reverse is not true. So this might indicate we should lynch Tenshii first, to minimize the chance of hitting chosen given that one of these two is scum.
Of course, I'm the one saying this, and the same reasoning says that if I'm scum Tenshii is likely to be chosen. So you might not trust that I'm arguing in good faith.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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This isn't actually what happened though.In post 954, TTTT wrote:@Human
your theory is that in a two-scum game scum!TTTT hard-pushes his partner then jumps off the wagon and hard-defends after it looks like the lynch is inevitable?- You pushed on Dave d1 but not hard. You said you wanted him turbo-lynched but never voted him.
- You voted Dave d2 but only after putting Hiraki to L-1 and only after Dave slipped.
- You unvoted Dave (without any new information about Dave) when enough time had passed that he was clearly not being speed-lynched.
- You continued to say Dave could bescum while not voting him.
- It was not at all obvious that the Dave wagon was going through until he self-hammered.
Alternately, if you're town, you have much less confidence in your reads than you let on. You were suspicious of Dave from the beginning, but overstated your degree of suspicion. When he slipped, you took this as sufficient reason to join his wagon, but then got cold feet. You argued that this was because he was "probably town" but actually you're just afraid of mislynching.Last edited by ChaosOmega on Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:46 am, edited 1 time in total.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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In post 959, Tenshii wrote:
How did you get these odds?In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).- The set of living players is {M(afia), C(hosen)1, C(hosen)2, T(ownie)1, T(ownie)2}
- Choosing two lynches means choosing a size-two subset thereof.
- There are 10 size-two subsets: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}, {C1, C2}, {C1, T1}, {C1, T2}, {C2, T1}, {C2, T2}, {T1, T2}
- 4 of these hit the mafioso: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}
- 1 of these hits both non-chosen: {T1, T2}
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Note that the lynch order doesn't actually matter, except insofar as if we were to lynch a chosen today the Mafia might decide to kill after all which if anything would slightly improve our chances (under the assumption that we were choosing randomly).“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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This is your slot, not you, but Misa's push on Creature never really made much sense from a town PoV. Creature's reasoning for suspecting Vedith as chosen was fairly transparent and he had explained it by the time Misa voted.In post 967, TTTT wrote:before I'm lynched
plz show how any of my pushes/votes were beneficial towards a scum wincon“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
Is anything else going to happen today?
It seems early to end it, but everyone has posted and no one seems to have anything else they want done. Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose name starts with T.
I also think I have a townier record than Tenshii, so I'm not worried about a 1v1 there.
Intent: TTTT
By the way, if TTTT should flip regular townie, the mafia can't NK. Can we all agree that in that case we should just skip the night phase?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
Okay, I haven't lynched yet, but to be honest I'm getting impatient for something to happen.In post 972, Creature wrote:Don't lynch yet.
Creature, what would you like to see before the end of the day?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
I could go along with flipping Tenshii first if you think it's less likely he's chosen. I actually agree that it's abitless likely. But if we're just going to lynch TTTT the next daywhenif Tenshii flips town, then we're only pushing the problem off, not solving it.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
Human is pretty clearly town. Their push on Dave was way beyond what was necessary for distancing. They pointed out his impossible claim before anyone else, where scum would probably have tried to coach with something like "What makes you so sure you're chosen?"
I think I'm pretty clearly town as well, for turning said push from "Human screaming at the town while they're busy wagoning Hiraki" into something that actually went to lynch.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
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Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX