Micro 676: Bill Wurtz Mafia (Game Over)
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Stormcloud Goon
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I don't need to convince you.
I need to convince the rest of the town. They seem to already be fairly close to agreeing though. That's why I asked what their concerns are.
I don't think I'm going to convince you that Syr is town, any more than you can convince me that you're town.
Is that true? Is there anything I could possibly tell you about my thoughts regarding Syryana that are going to suddenly change your very confident read on her? I don't think there are so I don't want to waste my breath.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I'm reading Tweet as town, and although this was pretty early in the game she's echoing my thoughts on Syryana. I think Syry's thought processes and switches of focus have been genuine and natural. She was never keen on the implosion lynch, she perked up once Transcend was on the the table. Her switch to Parama (I think, I might have to go back and check) came before I expressed any strong Parama suspicions (I had them for a while before I said anything, so I don't think she was sheeping me there).In post 181, Morning Tweet wrote: So far I've learned from readable posts that Stormcloud is town, and I want to say Syr is likely town for having a similar thought process to mine.
She has been a little bit too friendly at times with the "dearie" in one post. Don't love that and it's not like she's locktown never ever gonna vote her or anything.
But nothing about her seems off to me like it clearly does to you. I've read her ISO and the relevant sections of the implo and Transcend pushes a dozen times and nothing there is majorly bothering me.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Alright, went back and checked. Syry's switch to Parama is more suspicious than I initially thought, but I think I believed that he was gone (as in, not lurking but rather not online at all) during the time between post 506 and post 599 where he votes for Parama and follows me. Obviously the Transcend wagon was dissolved at this point and the confirmed town is voting for Syry's other main scumread (apart from Gamma who's gone). If Syry had not been suspicious of Parama before and suddenly voted for him out of nowhere, that would be pretty scummy, but he's always had Parama in his lynchpool so the move makes total sense to me.
Also he tries to explain the Parama scumread way back in 171 and it's a hilariously bad explanation. That screams town to me - scum would have made up some reason related to the game and tried to make it look like a legit read.
Not saying it couldn't be faked, but why give a gut scumread with basically no logic, admit it's a terrible explanation, just so that you can later join that wagon and have it not look opportunistic? I don't buy it. Syryana has been very consistent thought process wise and I love post 171.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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My main issue with Parama is the switch between wanting Transcend's blood REALLY AGGRESSIVELY, and then suddenly switching to Syry and now he's working with Transcend with no suspicion of him at all, it seems.
I'll see if I can show you any posts that really bother me in particular.
I actually liked Parama early in the game, it's only after the whole Transcend wagon that I started to get a scumread on him.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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In post 379, Parama wrote:no, it's not, Storm come and hammerIn post 421, Parama wrote:no no no transcend's "i'm dead and i was town" post is so fake, he was the same person who tried to reaction test implosion like literally a few hours ago, he knew full well he wasn't hammered and wanted to act like he wasIn post 422, Parama wrote:
YES HE DID KNOW IT'S SO FAKE AAUGHIn post 417, Stormcloud wrote:Transcend as much as I wanna use that "twilight" post as a towntell, you're an experienced player. I think you knew it wasn't a hammer.In post 425, Parama wrote:i trust it less after the crumb than before the crumb, but i still want to lynch transcend firstIn post 448, Parama wrote:i'd be up for lynching syrParama claims that in between 425 and 448 Transcend's frustration seemed town to him, so that's why he left the wagon. I guess I'm just not buying that explanation.
I mean, my read on Transcend also changed during that time, but it was very very slowly and I'm still fairly suspicious of him. I didn't go from wanting his blood to suddenly agreeing with his alternative lynch suggestion.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Because there's a decent chance neither is scum and then we're really in a bad spot.
But the bigger reason is, you don't line up lynches. When someone flips, town gains information. Most of the time on day 2, you'll have two flips and maybe even a PR with a result if you're lucky. You never just blindly lynch the other person in the pair without taking all that information into account. It might be that they still look like the next scummiest, but you never decide that ahead of time.
Putting the idea into town's head that, oh if Parama flips green it must be Syryana! is really good...if you're scum and they're both town.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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I'm convinced by a certain thing in that post. I don't think it was what you intended at all, but I'm seeing a tiny little towntell in there and that's enough for me.
The only unfortunate thing is that I still don't see scum Syry.
Right now I'm leaning towards Kain but I think lots of people are still townreading him.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I've explained several times why I think Syry is town, I'm not gonna do it again. Clearly you don't think my reasons are correct/good enough.
Pedit yes I agree I didn't love that explanation, scum could very easily make that post after the claim. But I think it's equally possible he's town and picked up on my softing - it wasn't like I hid it overly well, it was really obvious.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Scum can switch their scumreads/pushes to appear town. It's Day 1, so scum can't push one mislynch and win. You need to appear town for future days too. If you push on Transcend, then change your mind and move to Syry as if you were convinced by him, that looks very town. But now I'm remembering what people said about the most obvious motivation usually being correct, which means this is just a paranoid conspiracy theory.In post 721, Parama wrote:Storm, there's one thing you've failed to do up to this point.
Why does my switch from Transcend to Syr make sense if I'm scum and Syr is town? The only reason I can think of is that you think I'm scum with Transcend. Which... doesn't make much sense if you read through the game.
Until you can justify that you don't really have a basis for an argument against me, since you said yourself you townread me until I switched to Syr.
If everyone's most obvious motivations are correct it looks to me like we're all town. Because whoever the scum are, I think they are very skilled and will therefore do things that look town to me as a less experienced player. So my best option looks like sheeping the confirmed town and my strong townreads rather than following my own original thoughts.
In my real life games my gut reads are often pretty accurate. I don't love being wrong, but I really hate when I'm right and someone manages to talk me out of voting for my correct scumread.
That's why I'm being so stubborn here. I don't want to ignore my gut and regret it later. I'd rather lose to a clever scum I never suspected than push on the scum all game and let them talk me out of the lynch.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I loved that Kain interaction, it was super town.In post 728, Parama wrote:
for the record this sequence of posts on this page is the main reason i townread kainIn post 132, KainTepes wrote:UNVOTE: Stormcloud perhaps i may be misunderstanding you at points. let me look at your posts again
on top of that kain's play is just really all over the place and i feel like it'd be a little more controlled if they were scum
It's his latest series of posts that are bothering me. I've called out several for being even more odd than usual KT.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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I'm scared of you, Parama, because I think you're very persuasive and very capable of persuading me.
I'm also scared of Syry - I'm scared I'm being pocketed and am now biased.
I don't have the bluster and confidence I usually feel in mafia. Perhaps it's the much longer days that make second guessing oneself so much more likely.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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If you know you won't have support and you know a single vote isn't going to provide much pressure, and your other scumread has an active wagon going on, why vote for Tweet?In post 739, CommKnight wrote: I realize I won't have much support on this, but it's between you and Syr.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Why would you voting Syry, who you just said was a scumread, make him more likely to be town?
He's either town or scum, and you either townread him or scumread him, but you voting for him isn't going to change his alignment.
Might be too late as in, Tweet might die overnight?
Cause if she dies, then we obviously learn her alignment. I'd love to hear more from her as well but I don't think one vote is gonna magically make her talk a whole bunch more. She knows she's being townread by most people and isn't on the table for today.
If she's alive tomorrow then it's definitely not too late, just because people townread her now doesn't mean they always will. A lot can change in a night.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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"I'll push a wagon on her to L1 if I have to"
And where is this wagon gonna come from?
Transcend isn't voting her today. I don't think I am, even for pressure reasons.
I think Syry isn't either. Gamma's gone. KT said his vote is final (but who knows really).
Where is this L1 wagon that makes Tweet feel so pressured that she has to talk going to come from?-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Syry put his vote on you after your conversation with implosion, where Syry said (still not sure I believe this but for the moment lets assume) that he saw my softing and thought implosion was town. Then Syry removed his vote on you because he didn't trust Kain not to do something silly. Then, Parama removes his vote, I remove mine, wagon dissolves. You even said something like, if you don't want me to die you better unvote before Syry gets back, and sure enough Parama did just that when he started to read you as town.
Syry specifically said he only wanted to lynch you if the game was stalling, which it never really did, so he didn't. You and I and Parama were having a great discussion and I don't find it odd at all that he didn't hammer. I think the motivation there is more town than scum.
His swap to Parama still makes total sense to me - his other scumread now has a vote from a confirmed town, while his first choice is now getting townread by a couple people. Why wouldn't he vote for Parama there as town?
I do agree that Syry's Tweet vote is bizarre and I don't like it. I think at this point Tweet knows that even if she gets to L-1 there's a lot of people here not willing to hammer her so I really don't think a couple of votes are gonna pressure her much at all. I want her to talk more too but I'm doubtful that this plan will do that.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Yeah, Syry wanted you dead and then switched to another player without a ton of explanation. But are you forgetting that Parama did the same thing, and everyone accepted his explanation, that he started townreading you, as perfectly fine?
It seems to me like they did pretty much the same thing - both didn't like you and wanted you dead, then both started to townread you and moved away towards pushing each other instead.
What's the difference between how Parama left your wagon for Syry and how Syry left your wagon for Parama?-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Spoiler: My readthrough of major events
This readthrough is making me suspect Kain quite a lot.
The major things I don't like about Syryana are: posts are very short apart from a couple of initial walls. He doesn't explain much about why he's switching votes. Huge tone shift from the start of the game. I think he is buddying up to me quite a bit. So is KT.
Tweet likes Syry, Transcend trusts Tweet "more than himself" in his own words, yet he SRs Syryana HARD. This is really interesting.
Why is there such a wagon on Syryana over Kain when so many people have expressed suspicion of him? I'd much rather lynch Kain today I think.
At the end of my readthrough, I think it's Kain or Syryana. Possibly both. Would highly prefer a Kain lynch today.
I have another reason why Kain just took a jump on my scum radar but I'm not gonna say yet.
VOTE: Kain Tepes-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Transcend I'll admit I think I was blaming the timing of Syryana's votes on him being busy (he admits to it at one point). If I knew for a fact he was here 24/7, then yes his timing is suspicious. I didn't check whether he was online at certain times though, and even if he was he could hide that status so there's no way to know whether it's just him being busy or it really is suspicious. But at least I think I understand that angle now.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Funnily enough, I'm actually reading Syryana's switch to Tweet as town because I think scum would be really self conscious there, especially as he was already being called out and voted on for doing lots of suspiciously timed vote switches. Easily fakeable by scum of course but I honestly kinda like the brazenness.
Tweet's vote still being on Gamma is a little weird. It's been there like all game. He hasn't joined any of the major wagons. Not sure what that means though.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Things I like about Tweet: Great questions, pushed on me early and felt like she was genuinely trying to read me.
Things I don't like about Tweet: Has given some reads, but hasn't changed her vote or really pushed on anyone in particular. If it is something like her and Gamma, she could just be watching as town chases each other's tails right now. But I feel like the more likely motivation is that she really just isn't sure yet.
Transcend's confidence that she is town and his constant praise of her is really weird. I don't see a scum motivation for making sure town listens to a good player later on - she's liable to figure it all out.
Tweet also asked Transcend to stop saying good stuff about her - I think that's a town motivated post as well because scum would love it if the town listened to them later - especially if Transcend later flips town, his posts will be confirmed to be coming from a town standpoint and people will be even more likely to listen to her. So I think asking him to stop is more likely to be town motivated - perhaps she sees it as buddying or isn't very confident in her own reads. If she was scum she could have just totally ignored him and hoped a few town believed his read on her and listened to her on later days.
I agree there are possible scum motivations for Tweet's actions, I just see the town ones as more likely right now.
I also think her not being around much could be just as easily her being busy as her being scummy. This game is very active (...sorry about that lol) and not everyone has the time to post all the time. Like you for instance! But at least you have actually voted-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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I don't like that Parama suggested a quicklynch on Gamma - not sure if he was serious and thought there was a good reason to lynch an inactive slot, or if it was a joke, but I think it's scummy to try and push a player who isn't present to defend themselves.
I agree with him that Gamma being scum makes sense for a number of reasons, but I don't agree with actually pushing on a player that isn't present - you can't get any info out of them and you're wasting time not getting info out of other players.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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I am okay with a Syr lynch if we must, but I see no reason we can't wait for Gamma to return. We've waited this long already, another 24 hours is okay with me.
I guess I'm a much more patient player than most, though.
Is no one else okay with Kain as today's lynch instead? I feel like if I was bossy enough there's so much scummy behavior there that a skilled player in my position could absolutely get him lynched. I'm just too fucking bad at the game to manage it.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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I'm so sad that right as the game picks up again I'm gonna be low access
@mod V/LA from the 19th to the 24th.I'll try and remember to put a banner on myself on Thursday. I will check in at least once during the weekend and I'll get notified if the day ends by my phone so I'll be able to check the flip and chat with implo a little bit. I'll be back before deadline but I don't see it dragging out that long.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I keep going back and forth on him.
I don't love that he was so bloodthirsty towards Transcend and then was convinced by Transcend's frustration and now seems to accept him as full town. I also backed off of Transcend, but I was reluctant and unsure and I'm still not sure on him.
On both the Transcend and Syryana wagons Parama seemed extremely sure of himself and confident.
Maybe he's always like this and it's NAI, but I don't like how early he was pushing for a hammer on day 1 and the mind switch to agreeing with Transcend's push pinged me as odd.
I didn't like him at all earlier in the game I believe. Had him as second scummiest at some point, after Transcend?-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I don't like how much he wanted an early lynch and I don't like how sure he seems of all his reads. But perhaps some people play the game with far more confidence than I do even as town. It seems like a pretty noob scum mistake to be too confident - it would be easy for him to fake paranoia if he wanted to to seem towny.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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Stormcloud Goon
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Early game he was great. Interaction with me where he got super mad and then realized his mistake was very town imo. I liked his reads and his tone seemed pretty town. His votes were opportunistic but he made fun of that and I think that's fairly normal for him.
Then, two posts stuck out to me. Unfortunately I'm having a tough time finding them, so I'll paraphrase:
Parama posted telling him to stop posting the Bill Wurtz video lyrics.
Syryana said he'd like to lynch Kain for some peace and quiet, but ultimately voted for Parama.
After this point Kain stopped posting lyrics and got MUCH quieter, at least relative to other players.
He also said at one point that he'd vote for anyone that wasn't a mason, then said he'd vote between Parama and Syryana, then said his vote was on Syry and it was final.
From what I've read of KT's play, I don't think he normally bends to pressure to be quieter or more "normal", unless he's being so disruptive that the mod gets involved. His writing style is a little weird but his early posts were very sensible and had good thoughts and questions in them. I'm not seeing that now. I find it odd that he got quieter when he did and stopped providing reasoning - most of his recent votes have been pretty naked I think.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I feel like the mason reveal caused a lot of players to play very differently, which makes sense. It's just hard to get a solid read when that happens because people I liked before are now acting differently and people I didn't like are also acting differently. It feels like everyone got a brand new role PM halfway through the day at times.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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For once in this game, Transcend, I 100% agree with you on Robster.
Syry wtf are you even doing lol. Vote this late into the day with no explanation? I know you read him as scum a little earlier but you could at least put some amount of effort in to convince others of what you're thinking.
I'm not convinced you're scum but I don't like your current play.-
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Stormcloud Goon
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I'm back from my trip!
Might take me a day or two to catch back up to my old activity level.
I still want to lynch Parama. I agree with Transcend about the no one jumping on the Robster train thing.
Aj, you're saying Tweet/CK is scummy for unvoting in RVS? Sorry if that's incorrect, trying to follow your thoughts here with all the replacement names.-
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This day is going slow as HECK
VOTE: Kain
Kain if you're not going to actually contribute to the game at all I feel this is the best place my vote can be.
I honestly can't believe there's no discussion of yesterday's wagons at all though. What do people think of Transcend? Of Parama? Of Kain (before he stopped giving content)? Was the push on Syryana all misguided town? Was it driven by scum? Did the scum just hop on near the end?
The timing of the replacements was rough but put in some effort guys. If you're town and lurking you are not helping us.-
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Not sure what you mean by the wagon growing too fast. Lots of people have expressed annoyance and doubt about him, but only two people are actually voting for him right now, and one of them is me. I do agree that if there's no opposition to that lynch that would make me nervous, but right now there is some and the wagon isn't exactly taking off. That's actually what I was hoping to encourage with my vote - some opinions on Kain if not some actual content from Kain himself.
I think Transcend said he thought there was one scum on and one scum off the wagon, so something like
Golden-Kain
Golden-Kicker
Golden-Parama
Golden-Comm
(if we assume Transcend is town for a moment)
There's obviously at least one scum on the wagon as Syry, implosion and myself are all now confirmed town. Could be two.
Can you explain why you like Parama? I'm with you on Transcend but I'm suspicious of Parama and I want to know what you like about him.-
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I guess I can't explain it that well - it's largely gut really.
I don't honestly like the AJ lynch for today. But unfortunately that's also gut without any real explanation, so I don't think I can really contribute much here. I agree him and Robster look scummy, but there's just something that's bothering me about it.-
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Ok, did a little reread.
Transcend, you said a little while back that you put a vote on Robster and no one followed, unlike the Syryana wagon. Does that make him more likely scum to you? Just trying to follow that logic.
I feel like if at least one, maybe two scum are within the more active players right now, both Kain and AJ are easy mislynches.
Comm is obvtown to me right now.
Transcend is just below that with Kicker.
Then AJ and Parama - both are pinging me in weird ways
I still dislike Kain a lot but I see the easy mislynch argument if he's town.-
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Not sure I'm allowed to quote but here's a quick summary:
-We chatted about Parama saying he wouldn't believe the mason claim unless he already read me as town. I thought a bit about what motivation Parama would have to make that post at all. Seems irrelevant really given that he did read me town and therefore believed the claim, so that post was just kinda weird.
-He had Parama as gut town.
-Said Robster/AJ is an easy mislynch if town
-Said he's not really convinced on Transcend - says he's scumtold more than most people.-
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