Micro 706: Restrictive Mafia (Over)

[Edosurist]

Hello all. I have the 8-5-3 restriction. This works well because I'm out of town this weekend.

@Mod:

V/LA 4/28-4/30. I'll also add that I think it's hilarious that you decided to run this after all that went on in Fat Boy.

Gin is town here. His post is well-thought-out and I agree with the methodology he devised. It holds everyone to mentioning all other players and cuts down on the posting inefficiency of RVS.
That being said, I'm not a fan of NM's post. He's squandered the use of his post and not provided anything meaningful besides perhaps that I'm the only one on his list.
Sorry I gotta be a killjoy here No RVS for you.

As for who I'd consider right now, I'll take NM, Umlaut, and Socrates.
VOTE: Not_Mafia

P.S. This post restriction is going to make it a pain if I ever realize I make a typo.

[Edosurist]

I'll go ahead and post now that everyone's posted. Perhaps I should wait until Gin comments again just to maximize my posting efficiency, but I got things to do tonight.

I have played with ZZZX (I believe, no idea when though), Not_Mafia (I've misread him when he was town before), Gin very briefly, and possibly Socrates. The name rings a bell, but it could just have been some other MSer with another philosopher's name.

Spoiler: Not_Mafia

His second/third posts didn't really do anything to convince me that he's not a good lynch today. FMPOV there's a 25% chance he's scum and I'll keep my vote here until I see something that suggests I shouldn't. I think this is the perfect kind of game for him to hide behind his meta and I think he's doing it now. I do acknowledge that he's easy mislynch bait if town, but considering the small number of people who want to lynch him rn, I'd say scum aren't pushing his mislynch right now.

Spoiler: Antihuman

His post reads genuine to me. I just wish he'd at least acknowledge that NM's posts were anti-town. There's not a whole lot to say here other than I'm looking forward to more from him in his next post.

Spoiler: Umlaut

I'd like everyone to say in their next post with whom they have experience playing, so that we don't have to waste posts asking around for meta reads.

This I like. I've included a list to the best of my abilities.

Secondly: Absent a compelling reason to do otherwise, I would like to default to lynching Not_Mafia today.

I have no real problem with this. I used to advocate policy lynches way more often than I do now, but like, I just don't give a shit anymore. If I suggested policy lynches as much as I used to, I'd be consistently suggesting it on half of an average game's playerlist.

Granted that he's going off all of two posts, I don't see how a veteran player looks at a single tryhard intro post by TRGNT and and says "yep, that settles it, town."

Yes we're talking two posts here so it feels kinda unnecessary to point out (and in normal circumstances I'd just ignore it during RVS because everyone's making bold claims since there's nothing to go off of), but I don't think me saying "Gin is town here" equals "I've come to a conclusion that is final in any way."

Spoiler: Prof Hamm T Smiggles III

I think claiming our post limits only benefits scum as they try and manipulate vote timing for a mis-lynch. I also don't plan on limiting myself to 2-3 players for sorting. I see no reason why I cannot comment on all players in each post.

1. I thought about the implications of claiming our post restrictions, and I guess scum can plot out how many posts are left in the day and therefore they can guess what moves are safe, but town can do this too. I think the effect of scum knowing everyone's post restrictions will be negligible. I also insist you claim your post restriction count for a separate reason that I don't want to go into yet.
2. I don't believe our plan was to only discuss 2-3 players. As I understood it, the idea was to give an array of who you would consider voting for so that we aren't inefficient with how/when we vote. Stating a list of names just helps to keep track of people's scumreads without having to guess where people stand. As you can see, I agreed with Gin but I'm commenting on everyone.

Spoiler: Lycanfire

good vote

Legit question: Is this sarcasm? I ask cuz you later say NM is a mockery but you also bash Umlaut for voting him. In general I just don't understand where you stand on the game.

I also don't understand why you wouldn't want to give your history with the other players.

Spoiler: Socrates

Prof does have a point that scum have an interest in killing the players with the most posts available to them to narrow the towns flexibility, especially as the game goes on. 8 posts might be enough for some breathing room day 1, but 5 and 3 posts are very hard limits to work with as the stakes escalate. I briefly considered lying about my restriction to surprise the scum come lylo (I like gambits, Gin and Lycan can probably attest to this), but it probably wouldn't benefit me much and I'm probably going to want to use these posts anyway.

Remind me to come back to this.

Gin's opening was well thought out, and there's no harm in giving him some credit. The particularly pro-town mindset shown in his post is his concern about looking for associative tells, and putting some pressure on all players to talk about ALL other players is going to make the mafia's life harder, not just because of having to talk about their buddy, but it also makes it harder to be flexible about where they put their scum reads. He might just have these things on the mind because he IS scum, but if he fails to live up to his own standards it will bite him in the ass.

I should have elaborated more but this is what I meant in my previous post. He just made scum's game a whole lot harder.

Yeah, this is where my vote is starting.

VOTE: Antihuman

Why is this a scum post?

Spoiler: ZZZX

I feel like his post was a waste. He could definitely have given at least some thoughts on people. At the very least, he could explain why he chose the two for his lynch pool that he did.

tl;dr - My lynch list is now NM, ZZZX, and Lycan. Read what I said regarding NM and Prof Hamm. Also I agree with Socrates regarding Gin's post.

[Edosurist]

Sorry it's been so long since I've posted. I just haven't been able to commit what I expected I would be able to. That, a V/LA and a surprise lynch got in the way.

To catch up, NM's quickhammer was bad.
The Lycan NK seems really weird to me. His scumpool was literally me, ZZZX, and Socrates. Since I know I'm not scum and Socrates wasn't really at risk of being lynched, the NK looks like misdirection to me. I can only see Anti or Hamm benefiting from a misdirection NK at the moment.

Umlaut's case on Gin is meh. I don't like that he's still on the policy-lynch of NM but simultaneously creating a case on Gin. Like, if you think he's scum and not mislynch bait, explain why. (I know I'm guilty of this, but in my defense, I would've elaborated some had I posted more.) I know he explicitly asked that we not just say that in response to his case, but like, I can't right now. I'll explain why I think that tomorrow or the next time I post.

I hate to say it but my current mental capabilities kinda leave me at that. I feel like this is a waste of my few posts today but otherwise I'll get a prod. I promise I'll have a real post tomorrow.

Gut with little thought says Umlaut, NM, Hamm. Socrates if I'm wrong somewhere.

Feel free to criticize me for how weak this post is. I apologize. It's very scatterbrained.

[Edosurist]

Edosurist: How do you distinguish between N_M "hiding behind his meta" and just having that meta? How would you expect him to play differently if he were town?

I literally don't know. Not gonna lie, I didn't realize we only have one day left (IRL and in game) until lylo if we mislynch, so I think I'm gonna hedge and vote for him. I also like BlackVoid's point regarding the quickhammer. Since I have no idea how to read the guy myself, I think this is a good reasoning to sheep and at least more substantial than "policy."

If NM flips town though, you'd probably be my strongest scumread.

Ignore what I was saying the other day about Umlaut. I read his case and subsequent rebuttal as an attack on Gin, but upon rereading it, you took issue with Gin questioning the legitimacy of your case and I think that's legitimate.

I got posts to burn with the deadline so close, so please ask me some questions. I want to see a couple more posts before I give any legit scumreads here. I'll probs respond to Gamma's post... which just came in via P-Edit.

This line had been for a vote on NM, but Gin took it.

P-Edit:
NM might have a lolhammer meta, but being a prolific poster does not make him town. He just kinda does whatever he wants and he's a regular shitposter, so that alone does not make him town. I say if the underlying motive looks like survivalism, it's best to assume that it was because there's no other good way to read him than by considering the raw motives.

I feel like I didn't explain that well, so ask me what I should elaborate on. I've got a post or two to burn.

[Edosurist]

Sorry I suck and hardly contributed.

I don't think it's scumsided. We just got screwed over by NM.

Spoiler: What I was working on just now

@Edosurist (in response to your post 70): Why would Umlaut be a strong scumread of yours in the event of an N_M townflip? Not sure I follow the logic. Mind elaborating?

Now here's an interesting observation: both lynch wagons have had exactly the same set of living players thereon (Antihuman/Gamma, Socrates, and myself). Thus the living players are neatly bisected into two groups: {Gamma Emerald, Socrates, Umlaut} and {BlackVoid, Edosurist}.

FWIW, I was gonna vote NM before someone ninja'd me. BV also read NM as scum. That being said, I generally agree that this style of VCA is good for POE. With the amount of folks that were going to lynch NM yesterday, scum didn't need to pile onto that wagon, but at the same time, plenty of people were ready to vote NM if necessary.

What I find extremely suspicious is that Gamma Emerald replaced into Antihuman's slot, said N_M was town, and

never moved his vote

or made any serious effort to convince on that point despite having posts available to do so. Wtf?

~snip~

Likewise Gamma came in, said "N_M is town" without making any serious effort to dissuade his lynch and while in fact

continuing to vote for him,

and never gave any reads on anyone else.

Let me say that one more time. Gamma Emerald contributed to a lynch of

the only player he explicitly townread.

I didn't notice this. That's pretty bad actually. I don't see a reason why scum would intentionally do that though considering NM was almost definitely going to be lynched.

Note that Antihuman himself unambiguously stated d2 that he was actually scumreading N_M when he made that vote; however, Antihuman said d1 that N_M was town. Then in his followup he moved him to null (while simultaneously saying he had nothing new to say about this), and on d2 was the first to vote him.

His position on N_M is all over the map; it's different in every one of his posts. Why? Well, N_M was already looking like the most likely lynch by the time Antihuman made his first post. I can imagine scum feeling they have more to gain by opposing that lynch than by supporting it, given that it was going to hit town. And I can also imagine scum noticing they've gotten criticism for the townread, modulating it a bit, then voting him after that quickhammer when they feel no one can possibly blame them for it.

On additional inspection, Antihuman never really did any meaningful scumhunting in his time here. Take a look at his reads in 26.

• Gin is somewhat town
  
• Edosurist is null
  
• N_M is null
  
• I'm slightly town
  
• Smiggles is town
  
• Socrates is town
  
• ZZZX is null
  
• Lycan is null

There is not a single scumread in this list. It's like a weak, wishy-washy version of the consensus read of the game at the time the list was made. Antihuman townreads the people everyone townreads, and nullreads the people that not everyone townreads. His actual vote is for ZZZX, and he can't give a better explanation than "I feel like this is the best place for my vote for now." Not even the best person

to lynch,

but the best place

for his vote.

So, let's suppose Gamma is scum. Who would his partner be? Well, I know it's not me; and his critique in 74 of "the people making excuses to vote [Not_Mafia] based on policy or whatever," along with Antihuman's own statement in 51 that Lycanfire's death "could mean there's scum between widely townread players, in which case my gut says Socrates," should tell you that it's not Socrates either. This leaves BlackVoid or Edosurist, which is in keeping with the intuition that most mislynch wagons will contain some but not all of the scum.

Dr. Smiggles had Antihuman among her scumreads, along with Edosurist (whom she voted).

I think the TR on NM was a reach and Anti's answer to why NM's behavior is towny isn't convincing. NM's play here is anti-town. That doesn't mean he's scum. But to TR him for it like scum!NM couldn't or wouldn't play like this is a huge stretch. That's why I asked if Anti had played with NM and to explain this further and I'm not enthused by the response.

...

So Edo says there is a 25% chance of NM being scum, but Edo thinks he is hiding behind his meta (ie scum). Which is it? Is he 25% scum or you think he's scum? I don't see how those two statements work together. Also Edo thinks NM is scum because if he was town more scum would be pushing his mislynch. I doubt scum would be hard-pushing a mislynch on town!NM this early, and I'd like to know why you think this would be the case.

Edo's next scumread is ZZZX. But again, his reason is superficial. Edo's game does not show much thought about the motivations behind people's play and looks like scum unable to fabricate convincing scum-reads.

BlackVoid's own reads were all based on the assumption N_M was scum, which I'm a bit paranoid of as it would be a good excuse to throw them all away the next day. At any rate it's hard to take much from this as far as associatives are concerned.

I think this is a particularly good point. I feel like that's something I'd do as scum.

@Umlaut - This is what I've said regarding Gamma. Yes, it's not much (we only overlapped one post), but it's something more than the "never said anything" you were referring to.

P-Edit:
NM might have a lolhammer meta, but being a prolific poster does not make him town. He just kinda does whatever he wants and he's a regular shitposter, so that alone does not make him town. I say if the underlying motive looks like survivalism, it's best to assume that it was because there's no other good way to read him than by considering the raw motives.

[Edosurist]

Agreed