Micro 714: Vengeful Mafia Modified #4 [Game Over]

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: ss

From reading what has happened, something seems to be at least a bit suspicious. Transcend's naked vote on SS, which was L-1, seems to be essentially a White Flag Gambit. Such a gambit can easily be performed by scum, as at that stage Transcend could easily be Townread and there would be very little chance of the lynch actually going through. Transcend could also self-vote and know that they are highly unlikely to be hammered. For this reason, Transcend/SS looks like a likely pair.

Perhaps we could try the pairing method.
Transcend/Draynth
SS/Hiraki

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: ss

From reading what has happened, something seems to be at least a bit suspicious. Transcend's naked vote on SS, which was L-1, seems to be essentially a White Flag Gambit. Such a gambit can easily be performed by scum, as

at that stage Transcend could easily be Townread and there would be very little chance of the lynch actually going through

Mind explaining the bolded part? It was his first post, how would he be townread?

Transcend could also self-vote and know that they are highly unlikely to be hammered. For this reason, Transcend/SS looks like a likely pair.

Perhaps we could try the pairing method.
Transcend/Draynth
SS/Hiraki

I like the part about the self vote. If transcend is scum, then they are either going to be hammered by their scum partner (earning them credibility) or a townie who will inevitably be screwed after that.

I don't understand 'the pairing method'. You say that Transcend/SS is a likely pair (I'd like more on that please) yet you also say that Transcend/Draynth is a thing?

If Transcend is scum, they really do not want to be hammered. If scum is lynched on Day 1, they lose.

The pairing method is basically this:

I divide the other four players into two pairs, and if we lynch a Townie in one of the pairs they kill hte other member of the pair. For example, if we lynch you and you are Town, you would shoot Transcend by this pairing method.

The aim is to get the scum team in two different pairs, which guarantees that even if we mislynch a Townie outside a pair they will kill scum so we don't instantly lose.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: ss

From reading what has happened, something seems to be at least a bit suspicious. Transcend's naked vote on SS, which was L-1, seems to be essentially a White Flag Gambit. Such a gambit can easily be performed by scum, as

at that stage Transcend could easily be Townread and there would be very little chance of the lynch actually going through

Mind explaining the bolded part? It was his first post, how would he be townread?

It's the principle behind the White Flag Gambit. Basically, if everyone knows that if scum is lynched scum will lose instantly (for example here), they may be inclined to regard a scum pair as unlikely if one of them puts the other to L-1. This is because it would be very risky for scum to do this, allowing a hammer which ends the game. The White Flag Gambit is basically doing just that so that Town thinks the pair is unlikely. While it is risky, here Transcend did it when there was very little chance of it failing and actually getting SS lynched, so it seems that he tried to use the White Flag Gambit and minimise the risk at the same time, which ultimately makes it less effective.

VOTE: Transcend

[BTD6_maker]

SS is a weak scumread, but this read is mostly contingent on Transcend being scum.

Hiraki is very weak Town, but more due to the way Transcend is voting him without reasons. I think that if Transcend/Hiraki was the scumteam, Teanscend may have been more likely to vote second, to make it a more visible White Flag Gambit.

[BTD6_maker]

Posts are weird

Pre flip associations are bad

Don't think they're genuine

Interesting, I was thinking the same thing.

Even if BTD is town (right now I don't think he is) it's still a tossup as to whether this 'pairing method' works or not. There's a 50/50 chance of getting 1 scum 1 town on each team, and 2 scum / 2 town respectively (If BTD is town).

There is actually a 2/3 chance of getting 1 scum and 1 Town in each pairing. This gives us a 1/2 chance of winning instantly, and if we don't win instantly we have a (1/2*2/3*1/3) chance of winning with 1 scum and 1 Town in each pairing, which is a total of 11/18. (1/2 for lynching Town in one of the pairings, 2/3 for each pairing having 1 scum, and 1/3 for winning the subsequent LyLo).

By the way, I normally post in a more formal manner than most people, which some people read as "awkward".

[BTD6_maker]

Phone posting.

Mod, I will be V/LA until the 25th.

Anyway, I will analyse Hiraki today.

[BTD6_maker]

how do you TR Something??? draynath i get but something???

*ping*

no, i was asking a question - fuq off wit ur pings

he isn't town

caught, gg btd, we tried so hard :'(

Are you going to explain how you TR Something then?

I can understand the joke about "caught btd" but on reading again it seems slightly suspicious that he made it twice, as if he is trying to make too much out of it, reacting particularly strongly to a joke. This pings me slightly but I may be reading too much into this (as I may have been with seeing White Flag Gambits in the first few posts). Based on that, this is very weak but it is worth remembering in the future. I will say more later.

By the way, Draynth, I can understand what you mean about being suspicious of the pairing method. I suppose it does indeed work better the Townier the person making the pairing is (if Town makes pairings it benefits Town but if scum makes pairings is benefits scum). I suggested it because I know I am Town (and when it was developed, it was always the person who proposed the method who would exclude themselves) but ideally it would work best when done by someone who is Townread by everyone. In that case, everyone seems to Townread you so if you were pairing, who would you pair?

[BTD6_maker]

I am starting to suspect Draynth.

Of course, scum would quickhammer even if it gets them killed as they would do anything to avoid a Day 1 scum lynch. Scum need to take the opportunities. For example, if Draynth did not hammer (very soon after Transcend self-voted) that would run the risk of Transcend unvoting, in which case a Hiraki lynch was definitely possible. The Hiraki vote and unvote may be them just realising they can hammer, or it may be planned, to try to divert suspicion (Transcend Townread them, so even if they hammered they probably wouldn't die, and as we saw Transcend killed Hiraki instead).

Scum Draynth would be likely to pull off that hammer. I am wondering whether Town Draynth would do the same or not.

[BTD6_maker]

I can understand the joke about "caught btd" but on reading again it seems slightly suspicious that he made it twice, as if he is trying to make too much out of it, reacting particularly strongly to a joke. This pings me slightly but I may be reading too much into this (as I may have been with seeing White Flag Gambits in the first few posts). Based on that, this is very weak but it is worth remembering in the future. I will say more later.

I look forward to this.

By the way, Draynth, I can understand what you mean about being suspicious of the pairing method. I suppose it does indeed work better the Townier the person making the pairing is (if Town makes pairings it benefits Town but if scum makes pairings is benefits scum). I suggested it because I know I am Town (and when it was developed, it was always the person who proposed the method who would exclude themselves) but ideally it would work best when done by someone who is Townread by everyone. In that case, everyone seems to Townread you so if you were pairing, who would you pair?

Ultimately the issue still remains that you 4 have no idea if I'm simply manipulating you by using numbers to trick you or not.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love for it to be this simple and I just list two pairs and we vote someone and that settles it, but I think it would be unfair.

The game has drawn to a standstill because SS/Hiraki are arguing over a point which is fundamentally useless to argue over, and Transcend / BTD6 are pretty much only responding when they are specifically referenced (With the exception of Transcend's post(s) a day or two ago) although BTD6 is V/LA so it's understandable. I'm not gonna call people out for lurking when they've got stuff going on IRL.

I'm going to post a full readslist and I want people to engage with it; tell me if they agree and why and if they disagree and why.

Draynth refused the pairing method even if they got to make the pairings. I see this as a Townish response. Scum would probably be likely to set up pairings without any further comments (if Town makes pairings it benefits Town but if scum makes pairings it benefits scum) whereas Town is likely to be more cautious and suspicious, thinking that even if they are Town we do not know that, and thus we will suspect them. Draynth's response reads like a cautious Townie who is being aware of people who may be trying to manipulate them and also bearing in mind that others will also be suspicious of people they think are trying to manipulate them. Scum Draynth would probably refuse pairings which they know are detrimental to scum, claiming suspicion, and then being OK with pairings when made by themselves as they are "confirmed" to themselves.

[BTD6_maker]

So what did you learn from the reaction?

Not a whole lot, I mostly wanted to see whether you would flat out call it crap or if you would try to prove it was crap.

Anyway,

@BTD6_Maker

Right now I believe you to be town over Something_Smart, so what are your thoughts at this point?

At this stage I am somewhat suspicious of both of you, but I currently suspect SS over you. Either of you could be scum, but SS seems more likely. This is partly due to the interactions with Hiraki. It is certainly possible that the "discrediting" argument was staged, and it could easily have been planned as Mafia have daytalk. Hiraki voted SS. Again, this could be a setup for a White Flag Gambit as here Hiraki was voting SS throughout Day 1. In general, White Flag Gambits are not that useful when you do them for a very short amount of time, but if done for a long period of time they can be effective. (This is why the possible White Flag Gambits near the start were all only very weakly AI). No one else voted SS so there was not that much risk. According to game theory, optimally scum will bus less often than randomly so voting scum is slightly Townish but on this site scum tend to bus more often than optimally.

[BTD6_maker]

cool

VOTE: Something_Smart

BTD, If you need further convincing that SS is scum just look through his iso. After Hiraki questioned the townread that Transcend had on him at the start of the game, he hard tunnelled on him for, quite frankly, a crappy reason. Above he says that this isn't a good reason to scumread him, I completely disagree. It's too convenient.

Objectively speaking SS hasn't done any proactive scum hunting this game. He argued with Hiraki for like 15 posts and then started screaming that I was scum after the hammer; He barely commented on anyone else. He tried to pressure Transcend into shooting me even though he was being scumread by all of the active players at the time.

Anyway, take your time with this, ask more questions if you need to.

I will analyse this.

It is clear from the ISO that SS and Hiraki were attacking each other. SS never voted Hiraki, though, so perhaps they got the impression that they could safely pressure SS but if they pressure Hiraki then Hiraki would get lynched.

SS perhaps thought that pushing Hiraki (without actually voting) would garner Towncred if Hiraki flipped scum, as SS would seem unlikely to push Hiraki if they were the scum team. However, in actual fact SS never voted Hiraki so this would be a safe move as scum.

While SS did push a known scum, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum. Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

However, this seems slightly suspicious. If you are scum, which is certainly possible, this seems like you are trying to manipulate me to vote SS and thus win the game. It is still more likely that you are Town, but I won't stake the game on this just yet. We still have time.

SS seems more likely scum, but I will take my time instead of voting instantly. If I vote and am wrong, scum wins immediately.

[BTD6_maker]

I'm going to try to explain my point of view as clearly as I can without getting pissed.

This is all @BTD6. (I do still want Draynth to follow the last sentence of 135.)

First things first. It was clear that I was not ready for the day to end. I never voted once, and I never professed any strong scumreads. When Draynth quickhammered, I rushed to get in all the thoughts I felt were relevant for the immediate event, assuming that the game was not over. If it was, awesome; but if it wasn't then the path to victory had just gotten much harder. Which is why I felt (and still feel) Draynth should have been vengekilled for making such an anti-town action.

Now, the one person I interacted substantially with was Hiraki. I did so over the course of most of the day, mostly relating to his one comment that discredited Transcend's townread on me. "Flimsy" is not the word I would use to describe it-- I'd call it "petty" or "minor". Because it was minor; the game had lasted 5 pages and I didn't even scumread it strongly enough to vote. I got to this point in BTD6's reasoning in 153 and I mostly understood where you were coming from. Then you suddenly made two assumptions with no logical basis, and for no reason that I can see other than confirmation bias:

While SS did push a known scum, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum.

The second sentence does not follow from the first. The missing piece is that you are assuming that there were other more serious things that I could have pushed on, and that I picked out Hiraki's because I wanted to push Hiraki specifically. This assumption is wrong; Hiraki's post and subsequent response when I called him out on it, were the scummiest things of the game which was at that point on page 2.

Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

I could raise issues with your claiming to know all about scum's strategy 100% of the time, but the problem here is even simpler: why do you still not think Hiraki's discrediting of Transcend's townread on me was scummy, even after knowing it came from flipped scum? And you had better not mention anything about my alignment in your answer.

Finally, I want to take a step back and look at your argument as a whole. First, it's inconsistent. You're faulting me extensively for my interactions with Hiraki without even so much as briefly commenting on Draynth's interactions with him. And the interactions that you are scumreading served to put me and Hiraki into the spotlight of the game. I reiterate this, and you're free to debate it if you want--

If Transcend had not selfvoted, the lynch would have likely gone on either me or Hiraki.

Which means that as scum, our argument is essentially a lose-lose; if enough townies take either side, we lose. The only way to win is to count on a townie doing something attention-distracting to draw the lynch. And even in that case, this scenario implies that while the two scum were fighting, all three townies ignored them and piled on a town wagon. Sure, it could happen. But it should at least be enough to reevaluate, something which you don't seem to be doing.

I will look at this carefully in more detail later.

Either way, I was previously looking at Draynth's case and checking to see if it held up. In checking Draynth's case, I did an ISO search of you and Hiraki, and thereby missed Draynth's interactions. Perhaps I was also thinking a lot about "scum could be planning this", which is true (they could be planning this, but it may still be a rather low chance). I suppose there is bound to be at least some confirmation bias when ISOing you and Hiraki as opposed to everyone.

At the moment, this looks like a Town-motivated post, trying to point out the flaws in the reasoning. It seems slightly more likely now that Draynth has been manipulating me into voting you, but I will analyse this later in more detail.

[BTD6_maker]

The thing that is bothering me currently about BTD is the fact that he hasn't really commit to anything; the only time he has voted was for Transcend, and look how that turned out. He's just been dropping in every now and then to 'analyse' content, but so far he has hardly done anything with this analysis. I don't know whether this is due to his low posting style (Transcend confirmed this) or he is scum trying to fly under the radar

Right now, I am indeed analysing content, but I am not committing to a vote. This is simply because it is LyLo. I have explained my reads (I think SS is scummier, but you could still be scum) but I will not vote because it will lose the game instantly if I am wrong.

At the moment, this looks like a Town-motivated post, trying to point out the flaws in the reasoning. It seems slightly more likely now that Draynth has been manipulating me into voting you, but I will analyse this later in more detail.

Manipulating? Gimme a break. One of the main objectives of this game is to convince others that your reads are correct and try to get them to follow you. Call it that if you want, it's nothing close to manipulation.

I can understand what you mean by this.

If you are Town, you are trying to convince me about SS. If you are scum, you are manipulating me. What you are doing can be either, and a large part of what people do in a Mafia game could be either. What I need to do is to see which one is more likely. I am leaning towards you being Town, but I am not certain of this.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Something_Smart

If BTD is actually scum here then I'm gonna be so sad

You're gonna be so sad.

[BTD6_maker]

This was a fun game.

i tr you both

zzz

well that settles it then, BTD and Hiraki are confirmed scum

[BTD6_maker]

By the way, I suggested the "pairing method". This was developed by MastermindOfSin and you can see it on the wiki page for Vengeful.

I did my own analysis and found that the pairing method gives no advantage to Town but, even assuming that the Towniest person gets to make pairs, is strictly worse than "lynch scummiest who shoots second scummiest". However, it certainly sounds like something which benefits Town, and I predicted that Town would all think it works, given that the person proposing pairs is Town. You even thought that this plan was like my Surreptitious plan, which genuinely helped Town (although that game was broken).

Getting Draynth to make pairs was interesting. If Draynth accepted, I knew Town probably wouldn't follow it anyway, even if the pairs would hurt scum. If Draynth refused, I could use this to Townread and essentially buddy them while maintaining a healthy amount of Townish suspicion.

I think I played the LyLo well. Both Draynth and SS were scumreading the other before me.

[BTD6_maker]

Can you please release the PTs?