Micro 725: Nomination Mafia | Game Over!

[Alduskkel]

What is rocket info? Is it literally just information about rockets?

[Alduskkel]

So Chumley, what's CMM done that's scummy?

[Alduskkel]

I haven't played Mafia (other than a few marathon games) in years. I took a break from playing because I kept losing interest and not reading the games I was in and then replacing out, which I felt bad about. So I have a fair amount of experience but I'm pretty rusty and I don't know how much the site has evolved since I was last playing frequently.

Right now I have a town read on Alchemist. Posts 37 and 40 seem like a "bold townie" mindset as opposed to the "careful scum" mindset. I disagree with post 36 though, I think that your view of votes as tool says more about your general thoughts on Mafia theory/gameplay than any sort of alignment indicator.

[Alduskkel]

Also, as for unvoting Alchemist. I can read his slot. Our first game + the reroll gave me that insight. He's a value to have to town and I'd rather not see some idiot LOL-hammer. Even if it gets 1 scum lynched, Alchemist is probably the one person this game I'd say if he's town, he can nail both scum before LYLO. So I'd rather he survive. Plus, my vote was a RVS vote. I don't want him at L1. There's no PRs to claim, so the only reason to keep someone at L1 is to push for a lynch or a readslist or something more specific. Alchemist is active enough right now that there's nothing to push him for besides someone wanting him lynched.

Okay so, are you townreading Alchemist in this game? You say Alchemist is a strong town player, but how dangerous is he as scum? Also, got a read on CMM?

Right now I feel like you are trying to discredit Chumley for being a "newb" even though he has played Mafia offsite and is only new to mafiascum in particular. Then you're using that to back up your vote on him as the only real reason you've given is that he OMGUS'd -- which only really works as a scumtell on newbs. But if Chumley isn't a newb then it's not really a scumtell, is it? Your analysis of his play just seems superficial.

Vote: CommKnight

[Alduskkel]

Do you seriously believe that I've posted less content than rb? Read his iso. There's next to no scumhunting there. You can't just say that 4 posts = I'm lurking. Are you unvoting because Chumley is less scummy? Because earlier this page you said he was "pinging your scumdar so hard."

I don't like the high level of trust between you and Alchemist. It feels unnatural.

[Alduskkel]

Also, what do you think of Chumley calling you a "flaw picker"?

[Alduskkel]

CK, are you going to respond to post 107?

And I'd have to agree with Alchemist. BTD wrote a lot without actually saying anything about what his read on me is.

Also why does Alchemist still have 2 vote on him

[Alduskkel]

Who do you think is scum?

[Alduskkel]

That's not helpful... like, at all.
Also what does "the newguycabdc" even mean?

[Alduskkel]

I'm still waiting around for CK to respond to post 107 and explain his vote on CMM like he said he would.

Disagree with BTD that Alch saying the two votes on him to L-1 + first voter immediately hopping off is scummy. Sometimes as town you have that weird vague suspicion that you can't pinpoint but you still want to say something about it. Also, at the very least it WAS kind of weird.

BTD, can you go over your read on CMM? You've had your vote on him since the beginning of the game.

[Alduskkel]

This game is slow as fuck. I'm aware that I could be doing more but I'm not sure exactly what to say to prompt more discussion.

[Alduskkel]

I don't see why I'm CK's highest scumread. I mean I see how he thinks I'm "not fully engaged" but in a game like this I don't see how that's scummy. More importantly, I really want to know why his read on Chumley flipped from scum to town.

I think one problem right now is that a lot of people's votes are more or less being wasted right now. rb and CMM are on Alchemist together but with most players (including me) townreading him they should either be changing their votes or trying to change other people's minds. And then BTD6 and CK just aren't voting right now.

So I guess what I'm saying is: start actually doing something with your votes, people.

[Alduskkel]

This is very frustrating. I'm going to try firing questions at everyone and see if that works.

@Alchemist: What's your read on CK? Are you worried you won't be able to get BTD6 lynched today, given how slow things are going?

@BTD6: We have less than 4 days to deadline. Who do you think we should lynch? Your individual analyses of each player are coming too slow.

@Chumley: What do you think of CK's more recent posts? How important is it to you that he answer your question in post 129? ("What do you think about Ockham's razor's applications in mafia?")

@Comm: Seriously, how did you read on Chumley flip from scum to town? I'm not letting this one go. If I'm your highest scumread, why aren't you voting me? If you want to get me lynched, you have less than 4 days to do it and literally no one is voting me right now. Obviously I'm not unlynchable, but if you really think I'm scum then you're running out of time to get my wagon going.

@CMM: Is your vote on BTD6 just sheeping Alchemist, or is there more to it?

@rb: What are your reads? Especially on CMM, Alchemist, and CK. Are you going to sheep CMM and vote BTD6?

No one has any excuse to not be posting a decent amount of content right now, but Alchemist is the only one whose activity level actually satisfies me.

I'm fine with lynching BTD6, though they're not my first choice. They're a weak scumread, but I'd like more content from them to see if that scumread changes or gets stronger.

[Alduskkel]

^That vote count is incorrect. Chumley is voting me.

@Alch: Why do you think CK is town?

@Alduskkel what's your read on the current progression towards BTD6 that a lot of people are currently on?

I don't really know what you're expecting me to say here. People -- including myself -- suspect BTD6 for their lackluster posting which tries to appear like analysis but fails to add any real substance to the conversation.

I don't understand why you're voting me, but apparently Alchemist does. Can one of you explain?

- You became my highest SR because you're doing your best not to engage with people or stick your head out. Most of your posts are either not this-game-related or are questions. Nothing solid where you put your foot down and begin pushing people. Your push on me is even fake as fuck. You put next to zero effort in it and if it's one thing that I'll call out is weak-ass pushes on me.

I really don't see why you're interpreting my posts this way. Questions are a natural part of this game, for crying out loud. And you can't say that I'm not "putting my foot down and pushing people" and then in the next sentence say that I am pushing you but it's fake. What's fake about it when I've been trying to pressure you to answer questions and trying to see what others think about you?

- I'm being a bit careful with votes because until I'm solid on someone, I'd rather not help scum mislynch anyone. Because tomorrow scum control the the potential lynches.

Well you sound pretty solid on me: you literally say later that you'd "be astounded if I'm not scum." And yet you're STILL not voting me. What the hell are you doing?

- 200 is your biggest content post yet and it's only filled with questions. More specifically you're fishing for what OTHERS reads are. What are yours? You've yet to go into detail about anyone other than myself or Alchemist AT ALL.

rb and CMM are null. Chumley is town, although his recent vote on me is weirding me out, and the flow of content from him has kind of dried up.

BTD6 is scummy, like I said, but I'd like more content from him to go off of. Might not happen though with the limited amount of time remaining. Without Chumley's vote backing me up I'm willing to compromise and lynch BTD6 if it comes to it.

Trying to avoid talking about all the players which potentially means trying to conceal who their scum-buddy is by not talking about multiple people rather than just not talking about them.

I'm not "avoiding" talking about other players. Some players are just more interesting to talk about. I challenge you to find an example of me actually DODGING discussion about other people. And, you know, you can just ask me about anyone you feel I'm ignoring.

If you're town I think you're tunneling me because it really feels like you've found a way to find every action and non-action of mine to be scummy. Alternatively, you're scum and you're trying to capitalize on the paranoia others have had about me for playing "too well" or "too carefully." Plus I'm attacking you so that's one less person trying to get you lynched.

[Alduskkel]

Yeah, see, the catch is that I know I'm town and if we mislynch today and reads remain the way they are, then I'm probably getting mislynched day 3 and there's a loss easy as pie.

[Alduskkel]

I suppose, if BTD flips red, I'll be looking directly at Aldu tomorrow myself.

So since he didn't flip red, how does that change things for you?

I'd like to see Chumley explain why he voted me rather than Alchemist offering an explanation for him.

I know a lot of people (including myself) agree that it would be an ego hit if the scumteam is RB/CMM and we lost to them, but that shouldn't stop us from considering that scumteam as a possibility. Right now I'm second-guessing myself about all my reads though, we're screwed if we get "locked in" to certain reads and then those turn out wrong. For example, if I'm wrong about CK and he gets lynched today then that jacks up the already high probability that I get lynched tomorrow and it's a town loss.

Now, on the other hand, I can't help but notice that both of you (Alch and CK) talked a lot about the players NOT nominated for lynch today, but the fact is we're going to have to choose the scummiest between you two and Chumley, so who do you think that is?

[Alduskkel]

I really wish you guys hadn't hammered BTD6. I had a bad feeling he was gonna be a mislynch and that scum was somewhere in the transition onto him. I was gonna get back on later and try to make a case for him being town but then I get back on and boom you guys had mislynched him.

Something doesn't feel right about this. I can't know what you're doing in real life, but you had most of July 8th, a Saturday, to say something. Why didn't you get around to it?

Also, why exactly did you vote for me yesterday?

@CK: You went from a town read on BTD in post 174 to a scumread on him in post 216. Describe how that change happened. Also, explain to me your thought processes on Day 1 that led you to never vote me despite scumreading me highly -- despite the fact that you showed little to no hesitation with your votes on CMM, Chumley, or BTD6.

[Alduskkel]

I used the word "despite" twice like a dingdong but you get what I mean.

[Alduskkel]

Also, why exactly did you vote for me yesterday?

[Alduskkel]

Now Aldu, I want to know your thoughts on this:

Do you think scum!Comm would intentionally put himself on the block today and not his partner instead? What would the advantage be?

Do you think there'd be a reason for scum to put town!Comm on the block today? Out of the three of us, if you are town, that'd mean there is town alive who thinks I'm scummy and you WERE voting me yesterday. They'd only need one more townie to push a mislynch.

To reiterate. Would I risk myself on the block if I were scum when there ARE people alive who were voting me at day's end? Or does it not make more sense that I'm an easy mislynch to push?

The way you phrase the first question, it means that in this scenario your scumpartner is rb or CMM. In which case, either one doesn't seem like they would do a very good job at defending himself from a lynch. If I were scum with rb or CMM, I wouldn't want to put either up for nomination, unless BOTH were put up. Then I would probably try to push the one who was town (and push whichever of rb/CMM were my scumpartner to be more active).

I think there are certainly valid reasons for scum to put town-you up for potential lynching today. If you're town, then maybe the scum plan want to let me push your lynch, then swing around to lynch me on Day 3 when you flip town. I don't think you're an "easy mislynch," though. Not many people other than me have expressed a scumread of you.

As for the possibility that there's two scum in the lynch pool today -- I really doubt it. It's absurdly risky and I don't see a plausible scumteam in there. Alch seems the towniest, and a scumteam of you/Chumley would have to be crazy to put yourselves in competition with him. Not only that, but it wouldn't make sense with your interactions with each other.

Who do I think the scumteams are then? I'd say it's between you, Chumley, rb, and CMM. You/Chumley doesn't make sense, so one of rb/CMM pretty much has to be scum. Possibly both, but they're giving so little content that it's hard to tell. What I'm hoping is that there's one scum between you and Chumley and that I can figure out which one of you it is.

What do you think of Alch's post about the possibility of rb/CMM?

@Alch: I'll be honest, if I were scum I would not put myself in the lynch group today. But I might have just opened up a can of WIFOM there. Also, I don't really understand what you're saying in the last part of your post.

@CMM: Can you elaborate on why you're scumreading CK and Chumley? And also, which one is scummier to you?

P.S. Not sure where to fit this in with the rest of my post, but if the scumteam is rb/CMM then the thought process behind today's lynch group might have been as simple as "force the town to lynch a townie, then Alduskkel on Day 3 for the win."

[Alduskkel]

I see you online rb.

[Alduskkel]

I've been in and out of court all week, apologies.
Alch, you asked my reads -
I'd been townreading you, that's why I followed onto BTD6 wagon
I liked Al's play because when the game got slow, there were posts that made me think he was trying to drive it
rb pretty null cos we were dicking around early
Chum and Comm bottom out my list

I notice Ald is missing from this list.

You also give no reason whatsoever for Chum and Comm.

I think I'm "Al" since you're "Alch."

I do agree with CK 275 that if it's rb/CMM then yeah the lynch pool makes sense to stop a 3-town block.

Unsurprisingly, I'm not really impressed with his VCA though. Isn't VCA supposed to take into account multiple vote counts? And I don't see why there couldn't be two scum on the D1 lynch.

Also why hasn't rb posted and why hasn't the mod prodded/replaced him?

[Alduskkel]

Eugh. I think CK's VCA is too weak to justify his sustained suspicion of me but his progression of thinking from post 279 to post 280 reads genuinely town, because why would scum CK say he was worried about tunneling me and then turn around 5 minutes later with VCA and decide, no, he still thinks I'm scum? Like, I'd be more inclined to believe scum CK would consider in advance which stance he'd want to take to avoid the flipflop.

Chumley offering to take the rope today also reads town though. Initially I thought maybe he was scum trying to score townie points when Alch said he was being preservationist but in that same post Alch outright says he didn't consider Chumley being preservationist to even be a scumtell. No one else called out Chumley for it either so if he were scum there'd be no pressure to make such a gambit.

And with Alchemist there's just no reason to think he's scum, other than paranoia.

Increasingly I'm thinking it's rb/CMM. But of course they're just posting reads without substantive reasons so it's impossible to tell if their thought processes are genuine. I wonder if CMM is trying to make it look like it's me/him as the scumteam by saying he doesn't think I'm scum while saying nothing that would convince people that I'm town. Then if it's him/rb he could go for the lynch on me tomorrow (playing on the fact that some people want to lynch me first) and they'd win. Or maybe that's too subtle a strategy.

@rb: In 251 you called everyone in the lynch pool town, and specifically called CK obvtown. In 253, following this thought process, you say it might be CMM/me by PoE. But then in 294 you say

I feel like its too easy to just assume the 2 scum are found in the 3 outside the lynchpool

scum would have to have hyuge borlz for that

And then you say you think there's scum between CK/Alch. I'll buy Alch since you just said you leaned town on him, but earlier you called CK obvtown.

So my 2 questions are:
1. How did CK go from obvtown to possibly scum?
2. Why did you go from thinking it was CMM/me by PoE to thinking that it's "too easy" to assume that the 2 scum are outside the lynch pool?

[Alduskkel]

I'd rather lynch CK and if he flips town then lynch CMM, and if he flips scum lynch rb.

[Alduskkel]

My biggest concern re: lynching Alch then CMM if Alch flips town is what if it's CK/rb?

Interested to see what Chumley's opinion is.

[Alduskkel]

@Vedith: I think scum are in you, rb, and CK.

Also am I the only one seeing Vedith and rb ganging up on Alch? Seems like a good plan if they're scum. Cough cough.

[Alduskkel]

That feeling when you replace into a scummy scumslot and have to act cocky just to have a chance to win.

[Alduskkel]

CK's recent posts make me think he's much more likely to be town. And there's basically 0 chance the scumteam is CK/Vedith unless it's the most amazing bussing of all time. I'd be willing to go with an Alch lynch since my confidence that CK is town is closer to my confidence that Alch is town now.

Vedith you went to a decent amount of effort to pull up meta links but you don't even read the setup or this short game? Please get your priorities straight if you're town. If you're scum feel free to keep flinging obvious crap.

But at this point I'm impatient enough that I almost just want to get today's lynch over with so we can get to the part where we lynch Vedith.

[Alduskkel]

Tell me why Alch is more scum than Chumley.

He isn't really. They're both townreads.

Vedith's posting keeps making me lean Town on him.

Explain.

[Alduskkel]

So if both town reads, why are you willing to lynch Alch over Chumley?

Up until recently no one was talking about lynching Chumley, so it wasn't really worth talking about him.

Vedith, how did you go from Comm = scum (382) to Comm = town (401)?

You see how easy a town block can fade when pressure is applied?

Congratulations, you've somehow wriggled your scumteam out of the hole they dug for themselves.

Pretty sure Chumley is frustrated town.

[Alduskkel]

Wait, I just realized Chumley hammered himself.

In a way I'm annoyed, but at the same time I can't wait to get to Day 3 where we can lynch whomever we want.

[Alduskkel]

I don't know why I thought it was 3 to lynch.

Wonder if we'll have a Night 2 or just go straight to Day 3.

[Alduskkel]

Well we had a Night 1 so that the scumteam could decide on the Day 2 lynch pool.

[Alduskkel]

Well the thread was locked for a few days and the mod changed the game name to include "Night 1" soooo...

[Alduskkel]

So what are you gonna do if Chumley flips town?

[Alduskkel]

Vote: Vedith

I mean I think it's obvious he's scum even without the insta-lylo vote on me but here's a quick recap:
1. No "oops, Chumley was town, maybe I should take a second to reevaluate." He just comes in and goes for the next mislynch.
2. No explanation for how he went from CK = scum to CK = town in less than 20 posts.
3. Alch's post 277 is worth a reread.
4.

That feeling when you replace into a scummy scumslot and have to act cocky just to have a chance to win.

Like, really, Vedith's only chance as scum was basically to shake things up and make the game more chaotic. Because if he didn't, and it's him/rb, then the game was on a direct trajectory towards them losing.
5. Vedith hasn't actually developed a case against me, he's just been riding the wave of general suspicion on me.

If you guys compare our isos, I think you'll see that my thought processes have a consistent flow to them that shows that I'm town who is actually scumhunting. CMM/Vedith's are more like scum who just change their reads to fit what benefits them the most.

If any of you three think I'm more likely to be scum than Vedith, then please explain why -- I'm all ears.

[Alduskkel]

I'm town.

I hate everything.

[Alduskkel]

Especially Vedith though, if he's town.

Also really wished I kept pushing CK...

[Alduskkel]

So wait is it CK/rb or CK/Vedith

[Alduskkel]

So the game was over the second Vedith voted me, instantly, in lylo.

I don't think I want to play with Vedith again.

[Alduskkel]

Grats to CK and rb though. Especially CK, pretty good strategy, and you got me to change my scumread on you.

I'm not sure what I should have done differently this game. Any advice?

[Alduskkel]

I did not ask for information about your games. But you are correct in thinking that I did not look at the meta you provided.

But are you seriously telling me that the "pure reason" you had me as scum was because you thought I asked for meta (I didn't) and didn't investigate it?

@Draynth: Modding was good, maybe a bit more active but otherwise no complaints.