Micro 732: Miss List (Game Over)

[Prism]

I did a Baysian regression analysis on Something_Smart's previous games, and believe I have located a quirk in his randomization procedure. It was pretty subtle and hard to tweeze out, but it indicates for this player count the person in position 6 has at least a 50% chance to be scum.

Vote: Prism

I double checked the math, this time using Bayesian linear regression, and it seemed to line up. Unfortunately, he's right.

Fortunately, the person in slot 7 has an even higher chance at 70%.

VOTE: D3f3nd3r (No followup even after the comment? Here, I'll do it for you:)

Any reason for the lack of vote, Assemble?

[Prism]

Yep, it's just a really good starter to see how the person you're voting reacts. Is going with the joke me trying to be friendly with Grey or earnest amusement? Is me being cheeky a towntell or scumtell?

Good luck figuring it out, asshole.

[Prism]

It's a joke.

[Prism]

Hey hey hey now GreyICE is on to something.

There's 4 scum for 9 players.

Any

slot that's not you has a 50% chance of being scum.

I don't think that was intentional but I just got taken to fucking school.

[Prism]

Chill. I'm fine going on this for now.

VOTE: Assemble

Not giving an RVS vote, then giving one after I criticized him for it, and not even really for something vaguely related to alignment. I'm fine parking it here for now.

[Prism]

Picking up prod, will be on later tonight.

[Prism]

Leaning town on Game Replacement's assertiveness for now. Probably just a playstyle quirk but I'll run with it for a bit.

TheBrie's 59 is a wild ride. I lean scum on it over legitimacy so sure I'll vote it, let's test that described OMGUS behavior.

VOTE: TheBrie

Defender is also a pretty good vote considering he did literally nothing in all of those last 2 pages except ask for an icon switch.

[Prism]

That's actually L-1, whoops.

[Prism]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Defender

Scratch that if she's town and someone hammers I would almost certainly be the picked on the list and possibly get shot and I'd rather not have a game over at page 5. Will possibly revote later.

[Prism]

You can go into WIFOM sure but I think they'd be stupid not to considering Brie's statements, the way I voted, and my not noticing it was L-1.

This is a stretch hypothetical because it still requires A) her getting hammered B) her being town, but I'm fine with that considering again would rather not lose the game on page 5. There's 10 days and a full playerlist.

[Prism]

I mean her reaction isn't great I agree but your #1 seems to suggest I'm scum more than it does Brie.

[Prism]

I don't get why there aren't more votes on Defender. Dude has done literally nothing despite posting throughout the day.

[Prism]

I don't get why there aren't more votes on Defender. Dude has done literally nothing despite posting throughout the day.

Do you think I should vote him? What's your take on Grey?

Short: Yes. Long: Yes, the guy has posted repeatedly, including in times of actual game content, and avoided it like the plague.

Grey is hard as fuck to read and that probably isn't happening until we get flips. The continued pressure on you is natural though for reasons I'll go into later, but I'm not going to bother it for now.

GR's #120 is weird. Worrying about Brie town lynch into a Greytown venge is a lot (Will have to check if you hard TR'd Brie at some point, can't remember). I've never played with Grey but I don't see why he wouldn't push this as scum. Scum just want a townlynch more than anything else-it's a 20% chance of instawin. A lot easier to just focus on that over worrying about being the scum to get shot.

Overall I'm going to lean town on Brie for now. I could see her giving the early TR on me as scum but the persistence and continued demands are good.

LUV is a fine alternative lynch. Read on me isn't real, neither is the one on GR.

[Prism]

I don't get why there aren't more votes on Defender. Dude has done literally nothing despite posting throughout the day.

what makes D3f stand out in the pile of people who haven't done anything?

None of the others have posted as much as nor avoided the activity happening around them as much as Def.

[Prism]

Doesn't look like GR is individually townreading either, explicitly states in 120 he's not TRing Brie. He doesn't seem to think they're scum together nor that Grey is scum pushing Brietown so the concern is kind of justified, but I still don't see why scumGrey doesn't continue down this avenue. That's just such a strange, specific scenario about two other people whose alignments you don't know to be worried about here.

[Prism]

LUV, can you describe to me how my account of Def's activity is misleading? Here's his ISO. Gets through page 3, never commented on any of the game-related discussion going on at the time (ex. Neal, Brie/Grey)

"My tone is off" you've only played with me as scum. What the hell are you talking about?

VOTE: LUV

[Prism]

Good clarification on 2. I'll take it.

VOTE: Def

Did miss the L-1 again, wagons are forming a lot more quickly than I'm use to. I probably would have left it had your response not been adequate but I can see why you think that about me.

Disagree strongly with the first. He's not a guaranteed mafia but I think that it's definitely worth pressuring for. His recent post is an attempt to address that but he also hasn't really acknowledged me at any point so ?

[Prism]

I like GreyICE. I wish that made him town, too, but unfortunately that's now how this game works.

Don't get the Neal vote over Def considering what you said.

[Prism]

Have been busy for a few days now, will try and circle around another time.

[Prism]

I'm just going to reach out on a limb and play like all of LUV/Grey/Brie/GR are town. That's a real stretch and one of them should probably be swapped with Assemble (GreyICE?) but the point is none of these people are in danger for a lynch right now and basically everyone else is okay.

Def complaining about lurkers in his second actual post in like, a week, is lol

[Prism]

Lynch list: Def/Neal/ASP

Def's really the only scumread I have here. Neal/ASP just haven't impressed me whatsoever.

Maybe later: Assemble, Grey, GR

Probably never: LUV

[Prism]

I forgot to put Brie, she's in the "Maybe even later but probably not" tier

[Prism]

Why do you think Assemble could be better than Grey?

Pretty good reads by Assemble with considerably less experience. Grey in general is going to take more to townread in that he's visibly not terrible at this game and can probably hardcarry as scum when he wants to.

I mostly agree with this. I'm not too impressed with GR either though, and I'm not entirely sure where your strong town read on LUV is coming from.

Really just a lot of gut from my past games with him. The game I played with him as scum I remember him mostly being lurk city and honestly a really bad scum. His reads were either copied from others or really vague. Read on my attitude was pretty nuanced and his vision of my attitude mostly correct-I was very sure to keep myself at arm's length my first few games of MS, and to some extent I still do though I've at least lightened up a bit.

A lot of people claim activity is NAI and for certain players it's true, but I don't think of LUV as this proactive of a scum. I will doublecheck later but the nuance behind his reads so far is a lot better than I expect out of a scum LUV.

[Prism]

Where the fuck is the rest of this game?

[Prism]

Good shit. GreyICE speaks the truth. If you're lurking as town, save us the mislynch.

D3f if you're town, shot suggestions:

1) Not me
2) GR/Brie/Assemble if they're on there just because I don't see a scumteam picking them
3) Not GreyICE or Neal because they're likely picks, latter is probably scum anyway

ASP is a coinflip and I wouldn't do it either.

Don't shoot me just for getting you lynched, actually reread and get why I did so.

[Prism]

Don't shoot me just for getting you lynched, actually reread and get why I did so.

The fuck is this?

If I had to guess me appealing to a town D3f that probably doesn't exist, because guess who's a good person to put on the list if he's town.

If he's scum or I'm not there great, I don't have to give a fuck. And chances are I won't have to.

[Prism]

I'll read Brie again over later. Neal is probably a fine lynch, I'd go any of him/Assemble/GR off the top of my head.

GreyICE might be scum but if he is I'm leaving that to Neal, I'm not lynching him today.

[Prism]

Skimmed over Neal again. Yeah he's a fine vote. #41 is pretty bad and so's his push on LUV.

VOTE: Neal

@Mod:

If we quicklynch before mafia pick a person do they still get to pick or do you give a randomized townie?

[Prism]

That's L-1, by the way.

Fucking lower number of players than I'm used to jesus.

[Prism]

I don't see any reason to stop picking them in advance after this lynch. Assemble goes then GR in my opinion.

[Prism]

@Mod: How is the sacrifice decided if multiple offer?

Brie you sacrificing isn't the worst choice but I'd line up others first. We use it to get rid of likely mislynches first-ie. Assemble/GR. If it's not randomized but instead goes chronologically we can game it so that our backup choice dies instead.

Getting LUV to three way is probably an instawin. Lynch+shoot the other two.

[Prism]

If it goes chronologically this game is basically impossible to blow. Either our first choice dies and we got a free mislynch, or we get a free scum and

still get a free mislynch

via our second pick.

[Prism]

I'm putting a lot of stock in LUV being town when I haven't really reviewed his recent meta, so I should do that at somepoint.

My read is really just based off of him not really being able to explain anything and lurking hardcore when we were scum together like a year ago.

Either way Neal/Assemble/GR are the lynches today and we can cross that bridge when we get to it.

[Prism]

Concur. What's the worst that's going to happen? Neal and Assemble and GR aren't going anywhere.

[Prism]

As a heads up, I won't be online for the next 24 hours. Will be back at some point 8/10.

[Prism]

So I'm actually thinknig LUV is town here and last 2 scum is Assemble and Prism.

Yep, triplebussing into getting lynched/shot in 3 way over LUV. The winning scumplay.

At first I was just going to autovote but it's worth taking more time to doublecheck. I'm not seeing GI as scum here with that Neal flip and LUV is still unlikely imo

[Prism]

So I'm actually thinknig LUV is town here and last 2 scum is Assemble and Prism.

Amuse us, why'd your LUV read change?

[Prism]

Really just trying to get those 70%-80% reads up to 100% and then we can get the show on the road. I'm about to head for lunch so I'll be back later.

Don't even need both, if someone convinces me they're 100% town I'll volunteer for the lynch tomorrow even though that's mechanically suboptimal.

[Prism]

Not down for anything that removes my pick from the final. I want to either pick the lynch or the shot.

Call me an egotistical fuck if you want but when the gamewinning shot comes I don't pass the ball, ever.

[Prism]

Picking the lynch is objectively better FMPOV so I should actually advocate for that one. I trust myself to win though, 100% of the time, regardless of which it is.

[Prism]

I don't even think this is going to matter but sure, on the offchance he's town, I won't argue it if he picks me.

If he picks someone else I am 100% going to argue it.

[Prism]

Rule #1 of mafia is putting aside your stupid ego and doing the mechanical suboptimal thing. This is dumb.

Either I go with it entirely or I don't at all. None of this conditional stupidity just because I want to be Kobe Bryant.

[Prism]

Rereading this just looks like a last ditch attempt. LUV has expressed a lot of skepticism of me previously, which GR encouraged, and my reads haven't moved at all despite his pushing.

[Prism]

My scum read on Game Replacement recently comes from me being aware of his main and his push on me. He's only played one game with me on his main account in which yes I was scum, but by no means lurked. I can provide this game for reference as well any other scum games if anyone is curious or in doubt and you can all see for yourself.

Can you link these?

[Prism]

Reading the interactions with Neal in #168 and his read on Brie in #156 I really doubt LUV is scum here.

[Prism]

Rereading GreyICE I'm less certain on that one, his early defense of D3f+push on Brie aren't great. I can see him trying to bus Neal but getting forced into a double one.

Going more into depth on the early defense of D3f, he asked me what the difference was between him and Neal but the difference was pretty clear. Neal was actually playing and giving reads, and even agreed with Grey on the Brie push.

Either way I really don't think scumGrey was planning for a non-Brie three way.

Pretty sure we just don't lynch LUV here and we win.

[Prism]

Assemble's reads in #182 are fine but I'm good with lynching him today. He should have selfsacrificed. Shoot GR/GreyICE if you're town.

[Prism]

His reads in #182 are actually horrible. Look at what he said: "Neal is my firmest case, given 169 saying LUV has no commitment when he had committed to GR being scum in 136 and 168."

Now read 136, 168, and 169:

viewtopic.php?p=9480108#p9480108
viewtopic.php?p=9486517#p9486517
viewtopic.php?p=9486631#p9486631

That's... not really what Neal said at all. Neal was trying to argue that Uzi was fishing for a town wagon. Now Neal was scum, yes. But what was terrible about #169 wasn't that he said Uzi was non-committal and he was actually committal. It's that

being committed to a single scumread in a game where half of the other players are scum is insane

. Neal was literally arguing that instead of scumhunting and working with town reads Uzi should jump into a tunnel and scream "fuck the world!"

So good reads, bad reasoning? Perhaps the reasoning didn't drive the reads.

I don't think I'm getting quite what you're saying here. My interpretation of Neal's point was that LUV was trying to fish different wagons, and that this in itself is scummy. I don't think he's saying LUV needed to tunnel to be town, just be less wagon-fishy. I think Assemble just took it too literally, and that's more of a new player mistake than AI. I can't really see a reason to scumread him outside of PoE and activity.

[Prism]

Nevermind, I think get it, we are on the same page I'm pretty sure. The opening sentence made me think you were more trying to make a case for Assemble rather than just pointing out the flaw in the reasoning. I concur that he took it too literally.

[Prism]

I don't know why TheBrie sacrificed, but I did try to sacrifice. And I did legitimately have that interpretation of Neal's post.

Can you explain your other reads? Only one I saw an explanation on was Neal.

Did you at all try to sacrifice N1?

[Prism]

Literally a scumclaim.

Don't even care about waiting for the scum to pick first anymore.

VOTE: Assemble

If you're town shoot Grey.

Concede if you're scum GR. The chance of you winning is literally 0.

[Prism]

Those "If" statements are honestly so pointless.

If you're scum with Grey sure don't concede but otherwise stop wasting our fucking time.

[Prism]

All you have to do is say "I'm sacrificing, lynch Prism" if it's me. Even then when you're wrong I still get to fix your fuckup for you. Just say the 4 words dude. Say them or concede.

[Prism]

See you in the endgame. Vote Assemble.

[Prism]

So much thinking you're doing, sitting there mindlessly typing "I'll revenge kill you every time" without actually thinking about it. I'm not fucking scared of you. Have you read this game? I'll volunteer myself to be lynched tomorrow so I can take the gamewinning shot.

Concede and stop wasting our fucking time.

[Prism]

VOTE: Prism

Vote. One to go.

Shooting GR. GreyICE/Assemble sacrifice as town tonight.

[Prism]

@Something_Smart:

Successful shot today puts us in 3 way at night. Do scum just not kill in that case?

[Prism]

We actually don't get a sacrifice here. You lucky piece of shit.

UNVOTE:

[Prism]

Sure. Someone else hurry this up already.

VOTE: Assemble

Again, if you are town Assemble, think to yourself the incentive I just had to do that with a guaranteed mislynch coming up, and shoot Grey.

[Prism]

I almost just threw incredibly hard if Grey is scum, I need to stop getting annoyed and just play.

[Prism]

[Prism]

I'm actually thinking through a me/Grey scumteam and I don't think this town would have ever lynched a mafia without us.

[Prism]

Yeah it said it in the role PM sorry S_S

[Prism]

Well brother if you're not going to concede better start making that case, dunno why you're wasting all this time talking to me

[Prism]

Sure GR, speak to me. Sell me on you not sacrificing being a town move.

[Prism]

I'm not the one getting lynched. You are.

I've got Kobe Bryant syndrome but I'm not getting baited into doing stupid shit again.

[Prism]

That actually does kind of answer it in that if I'm wrong and GR is town I'm never trusting him to shoot correctly, and that's fair in reverse as well.

Guess I'm not the only one.

[Prism]

Me/Grey bussing is definitely possible in the sense that bussing is always possible, but can you explain why you think it's plausible?

[Prism]

Worry is you/GR not you/Assemble.

[Prism]

Assemble needs to get in here and fucking play.

[Prism]

If someone hammers before Assemble agrees to this, or he simply refuses, do you want me to sacrifice?

[Prism]

She didn't answer which was fucking awful (Sorry Brie but yes if you did you 100% shouldn't have sacrificed there)

I think she did it even in a world in which Assemble is scum, because why the fuck do they shoot Brie over me/you/LUV

[Prism]

GR is playing like he's scum with you and counting on Assemble to misshoot, and that's a problem.

[Prism]

Am I overthinking it? Probably, but I cover all my bases, period.

What argument? Brie shot doesn't help me at all.

[Prism]

Oh to save Assemble.

Not really any reason to do that. I've presumably doublebussed two more active+experienced partners, no reason to save the 30 lb rock around the ankle.

[Prism]

That's pretty godawful.

Any explanation, Assemble?

[Prism]

It does if Assemble is your scumbuddy. Because seriously his ONLY chance of living is a Brie shot and now you're defending his posting.

Why would I even care if he lived? I'd just shoot whoever makes it likely to win me the three way. Hypothetically that can still be Brie but acting like I have any reason to swoop in and save Assemble whatsoever here is a joke. He's practically a dead man walking. Throw that fucker under the bus and move on.

[Prism]

He last posted on Aug 3rd Day 2.

The day ended on August 9th.

This dude made it

6 fucking days

without posting without being force replaced.

[Prism]

Nevermind I got mixed up Day 2 started the 6th, only 3 days.

Still, jesus.

[Prism]

Assemble gets a shot. If he shoots you that's scum autoloss.

[Prism]

Actually it doesn't really matter he'd lose anyway I'm pretty sure.

But the whole point is to get Assemble to shoot me, not to win a 3 way.

[Prism]

Like I do see what you're saying but there's 0 reason for you to even care much: GR is playing for 5 way, you're playing for either.

[Prism]

This isn't even just 4 players I forgot LUV was even a player jesus christ and here I am talking about "covering all my bases"

The problem with these things is that the more I argue that it's possible the more I want to think it's plausible and those are two separate things entirely.

[Prism]

I'm definitely overthinking this. GR is definitely playing for 3 way. Dude just tried to intimidate me into not voting him in it for like 3/4 pages.

VOTE: Assemble

[Prism]

Sweet.

Assuming this is scum, pleasure to work with you GreyICE, and sorry I waffled a bit today.

[Prism]

Currently too behind in other games. Doing one more read when I have time then likely voting. If I'm wrong I'm wrong.

Calling bullshit on the sacrifice attempt, too.

[Prism]

GR if you convince me there's even a slight chance you're town, then sure I'll go for it, but I'm not seeing why I should think so. You randomly came out with me being 100% scum over LUV all of yesterday, refused to explain either the LUV flip or the SR on me, and walked into today with an arbitrary number, again no reasoning, and a bullshit claim that you tried to sacrifice, acting like you were confused as to why Grey did despite him saying he would 3x yesterday. I'm still waiting until other things die down so I can have time to reread+meta LUV but I'd slot the chance of you being town as <4% here. Kind of arbitrary but basically just converted it to fraction and bet how many times you'd be town internally.

[Prism]

Like sure, that 80% might be legitimate, but I have no reason to think it is, and if I wasted 10 days making my case to you and working myself into a furor of doubt GreyICE would fucking slap me from beyond the grave.

[Prism]

This is a team game. I'm not wooing you.

This is basically your only chance to win as scum, period. Pushing one of us from the getgo is suicide. All of the language you're using here-"woo me", "you want me to pick right" etc come off as disingenuous, in that it feels like you're just hoping for me/LUV to doubt our reads and start fighting each other.

You're asking us to sell us on you being town but the transparency behind your reads are 0. "Wooing" you consists of either making a scumcase for the other or a towncase for ourselves, and the answer to the latter is simple "Everything we've done is town". If we could easily point out what was outside our range, it wouldn't be outside our scumrange. Outside of that it's just us shrugging our shoulders and saying "We didn't bus"

Why do you think I am scum? What am I trying to disprove here? You've given literally nothing.

[Prism]

VOTE: Game Replacement

4 for 4, final answer. I'm not afraid.

[Prism]

You never had a ghost of a chance.

[Prism]

"100% locked" "I'm the lynch today" goes around to other games and posts on his main.

Fucking bodied.

[Prism]

lmfao

Fry me up. You can. Right now. Vote yourself and PM S_S.

[Prism]

I think you would have ten minutes ago.

[Prism]

S_S is fine with concessions and has done so himself if that's what you're asking.

[Prism]

Either way, I rest my case, time to make my food run and go to bed.

Nice playing with you fellas. Shame you finished like this.

[Prism]

Lot of the credit goes to GreyICE-I mostly missed Neal and was just following him on that one. Selfsacrifice strat was great.

[Prism]

Yeah I don't think S_S calc'd the selfsac strat into the EV

[Prism]

Was Brie a selfsac? I assumed she was because of her statements and the fact that seemed like a dumb kill over me/Grey but Grey seemed to think it was the legit kill.

[Prism]

That was pretty anticlimactic and I kind of regret bullying you into that. That was really underhanded on my end, I don't think you should ever actually concede.

Regardless, respect for hanging in as long as you did.

Okay now food I'll have reflections and tips tomorrow.

[Prism]

Good game, this was one of the hardest I've ever played. It was incredibly tough, being that I knew I could convince

almost

everyone that I was town, but convincing

everyone

I was town is a much harder job.

I mentioned this in the PT but holy shit were Grey/LUV/Brie tough. I really, really wanted to concede Day 2 but knew I needed to see it through.

To the scum team, you're welcome. I really didn't want to bus (maybe once with D3f) but after that we just got forced down to 3 way. Not that D3f and Assemble tried to lose or anything, but especially grateful to Neal, who tried really hard but it just wasn't happening.

This is all sincere, but is diplomatic. I do feel like I've earned one "fuck yeah I did it all me" comment so this'll be that.

my fucking back is broken, someone call an ambulance

I think people are underselling the selfsac strat. In the event of a mafia lynch, sacrifice strat gives town a free mislynch/investigation. I gave a possible lynch strat, in the event you lynch town, in the mafia PT but am unsure of how easy it'd be to implement and whether it really changed the EV much at all.

[Prism]

Also that last day I really just tried to kill GreyICE for the sake of saying we tried to put him on the list/shoot him every phase.

[Prism]

My god those night 1 sacrifices

If LUV/Brie had died my life would have been so, so much easier.

Then again I may not have won so

[Prism]

Like, and I hope I don't come off as too offensive, but never has the term 1v8 been so applicable.

23 days. 23.

Do you know what it's like to spend 23 days in the swamp, the enemy's swamp? My whole unit was dead before we ever touched ground. From there, it was just me, the mud, the filthy water, and a neverending horde of unfriendlies. No hope of reinforcements, no hope of rescue, and discovery meant death. 23 days I crawled through the mire, accumulating dirt and grime and muck. Crawling, inching, through mud and water, feeling the swamp resist me all the way, as though opposing the spirit of man itself. One by one they fell, but still, I was alone. Do you know what it's like to be alone that long in such a dark place, opposed to your very existence, no one to talk to? You start to see things. Apparitions. Food that isn't really there, a bath house, loved ones, Neal, appearing for a moment then disappearing again. Just long enough to get your hopes up. Just short enough to pound them further into the mud. Still, I pressed on. Time flew by. 3 weeks, or 3 months? Hard to tell when the time slips so slowly, all thoughts of winning long gone, just clinging onto your own will to survive and take down as many of the fuckers as you can with you. Nobody'll take you alive-not them, not this swamp. One by one, you creep up behind and cut them down, slipping once again into the murk. One by one, flawless, until either you fall or them.

23 days in the swamp. And on the 23rd day, I made it out.

[Prism]

Yeah, I didn't even realize the sacrifice mechanic was a thing at first. The moment you told ASP to sacrifice I realized what was going to happen and I groaned. Instantly went to the scum PT and said "Shit, we're never getting a kill in this game. Our only hope here is if ASP misses it this once."

[Prism]

My god those night 1 sacrifices

If LUV/Brie had died my life would have been so, so much easier.

Then again I may not have won so

To be fair, if I got lynched at any point, I was deadset on feeding you the bullet, so...

Also, ICE... what was that about 1% chance in the dead thread? I told you.

"Cover my bases" was an excuse here this time, yes, but the phrase itself is extremely common in my play-I'm really obsessive as town about stuff like that.

Regardless if you thought it was me great work.

[Prism]

I'm extremely grateful for the kind comments on my play, along with the nominations from Assemble and Regfan. I think this game is neither my best work, and consider it too short to have a real shot at ever being such, and am personally skeptical of the idea of accepting any kind of award, but I deeply appreciate the intent here and am humbled that you thought so highly of my game.