Micro 739 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

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VOTE: lizardqueen
The only reasonable solution.

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UNVOTE:

Sorry, this is my first micro. I assumed RVS was universal.

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Maybe, but what's the use of vying for towncred when scum looking for scum all the same? Plus, he'd have had since signups to work out the best strategy. Why make that post after days of waiting, only to take it back 90 minutes later?

Umlaut is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, coated in something sticky.

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I'm finding lizardqueen's posts awkward.

Also, it occurred to me that RVS really wasn't dangerous. If you review the rules, you see that a

Townie

will be randomly killed in the absence of a lynch choice -- not a random

player

. That means even lynching any one of the five of us gives us a better chance of hitting scum today than never voting.

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I'm going to games night. I'll get back to this later.
Make sure you post lots of content for me \o/

Only if you promise to do the same for me tomorrow.

I don't have an opinion on your posts. Well, I do, but I don't like my opinion. They strike me as breezy and therefore genuine. I just don't think I can trust that as an assessment of your alignment.

Umlaut is still sticky.

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Assembledeyebrows is missing. That's not ideal in a 5-player game.

/end boring content

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Everything by you is Boring content.

tell me about it!

Frankly

, I think we've hashed Umlaut's intro into a pulp. Any thoughts on anything else?

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Right now, lizardqueen is my choice. I'm pretty sure her vote was more to get the possible lynch off her than to "move the game forward".

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I think LizardQueen is bad town, not scum though.

Maybe? I agree with Umlaut that the dumb reaction to the "dumbtell" seemed unnatural. Everything she's posted has seemed unnatural. I suppose that's your whole point, though.

Honestly, I don't know how you can manage to rule anyone out right now.

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I mean, anyone who can play bad town can play bad scum, right?

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Honestly, I don't know how you can manage to rule anyone out right now.

Why shouldn't I?
Why do you worry about me ruling someone out?
If I said it was you, I'm sure you would let it slide.

I'm pretty sure I wouldn't. I worry about you ruling out a scumlean because it might very well be scum!Vedith placing the other scum on the back-burner for the NK.

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@ Boring - have your Umlaut/Vedith reads developed at all since #27?

I'm not sure. My V/LA ends tomorrow so I'll have more time to think about this game. But I really don't like any of you. (In an in-game way. I'm sure you're all lovely people).

I'm worried that Umlaut could be buddying, and his intro was awfully WIFOMY. Vedith's view seems so foreign that it can't help but be suspicious. Assemblerotws has been utterly devoid of content. At least you're putting in effort, but your content seems so reactionary, which pings me a lot.

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@ boring - you mentioned that scum-Vedith could be putting his scumread on the backburner for the nk - do you think scum will be wanting to lynch town today or the other scum?

Lynching town today is in their best interest. By leaps and bounds, in their best interest. If we lynch town today, there are two scum with night actions. They could miraculously aim at each other and we'll win, or they could both hit town and they'll tie for the win, or one could hit scum and the other town and that remaining scum will win.

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Lizardqueen is posting stuff.
As for Vedith, provocative behavior toward an active player, when he could be acting friendly, tells me he's probably town.

If I'm left only lynching between Umlaut and Assemblerotws, I guess I'd rather lynch Assemblerotws, as things currently stand. His reaction to LQ's vote looked like he was trying to instigate Vedith to OMGUS. Also, the strategic-not-strategic lurking in such a short game is scummy. I'm willing to put him at L-1 when we get a little closer to deadline, if nothing changes.

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I have to reëvaluate Vedith in light of this.

How does this info influence your impression of Vedith?

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I really don't like you this game. I can't put my finger on why.

When you figure it out, will you let us know?

In the meantime, Any thoughts you have on the other two or the general gamestate would be useful.

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I can wait another couple of hours, but I'm pretty sure he'll flip scum.

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I have about an hour, and then I won't be back until after deadline. I plan to hammer on my way out, unless there are reasonable objections.

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I think Vedith genuinely thought I was the other scum.

He didn't actually push very hard to lynch me, or at least he didn't really attempt to persuade anyone else of his read. Nevertheless, he really only targeted me yesterday. He wouldn't have done all that as scum, if he intended for me to make it to LYLO with him. It's pretty ballsy, if you think about it.

The question is, which of you is most likely to kill Vedith? Was it an attempted frame-up (I doubt it, as it was just too obtuse, and neither of you seem to be setting that up), or did Vedith just look really scummy to one of you? I think scum would definitely benefit from seeking to kill scum because to do otherwise is to risk a tie.

This small a roster, it's harder for me to draw the connections I usually depend on for gamesolving.

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Umlaut, we discussed this briefly yesterday, but I'm not really accustomed to players (even scum) "buddying" me. Now, I get that town sometimes identify one another and work together, but it's never happened to me while I was town. I've had a primarily townie read on you this game, despite this oddity, but I'd like to understand your motivation a bit better.

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lizardqueen, you seem pretty thick-skinned about being suspected as scum, and you've been a major content-contributor, but some of your reactions have seemed unnatural to me. Could you give me a link to two games you've played on this site? I'd really like to review one (preferably smaller games) where you were town and another where you were scum. I know I can dive for myself, but it will help me to see the ones you've picked. If you don't mind.

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@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

Remember my primary point: I think Vedith assumed I was scum. He could get town cred for scum!boring flip, and pit you two against each other.

Thinking about it again, I made a

huge

mistake in my conspiracy theory (I remembered it later in the same fucking post! Actually, you didn't notice it either, so makes me feel a little better) I forgot that if both scum had hit their mark they'd have just tied and there'd be no today.

So there'd be no need to play off my death. If he had successfully killed me, the game would have been over (because that would have meant the other scum had aimed at town too).

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

I had meant thick-skinned like you weren't simply suspecting players simply because they were suspecting you. You have been a bit off, as I've already mentioned, but you haven't been particularly prone to OMGUS.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

I'll look at those. I just need to understand if the vibe I'm getting is your personality (NAI) or if something actually is "off".

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

Suspect me all you want, but please don't vote until we've all three had some time to work things out a little more. I'm sure you understand that a single TvT vote will lose the game.

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Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

I meant, I realized that there's no way the game would have made it to Day 2 if Vedith had successfully NK'd me. That's because it would mean the other scum didn't hit Vedith, and they would have tied (we'd have lost). So from Vedith's perspective, again, assuming he thought I was the other scum, I'd have flipped scum, and he'd go to Day 2 looking like town. At worst, from my [revised] theory of his perspective, he'd hit me, I'd flip town, and he'd tie with the other scum.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

However, I think I've spent enough time on this theory. If there's something still confusing about my thought process, and it will help you sort me, feel free to bring it up. Otherwise, i think I've picked this bone dry.

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Umlaut, we discussed this briefly yesterday, but I'm not really accustomed to players (even scum) "buddying" me. Now, I get that town sometimes identify one another and work together, but it's never happened to me while I was town. I've had a primarily townie read on you this game, despite this oddity, but I'd like to understand your motivation a bit better.

I mean... I sort of instinctively townread people if their reads match mine across the board (assuming I'm town, which I am) so I've instinctively townread you for that reason. I was more sure of this when you responded by being

suspicious

instead of welcoming it. I was maybe exaggerating a little when I said "I am absolutely buddying you," but I did think at that point "okay, boring is town, if we're both town and we both realize that we have a good chance of winning here just by lynching everyone else"

Most games where I've added any value as town, it was by being part of the townbloc, so I was hoping to form one. Though I admit I do have some healthy lylo paranoia now.

That makes sense. It also makes sense to be paranoid now. My problem is that I know one of the two of you has to be scum but I'm not finding either of you particularly scummy. That's not a comfortable place for me to be. I normally have more scum reads than there are slots to fill them. I'll work on this over the next few days and share my thoughts.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

I think we can ask the mod now, actually. But, if I had to guess his thought process, he did explicitly say a draw is worth half a win. So I'd think it's legitimate play to optimize one's EV, even if that means playing for a more likely draw over a less likely win.

We might as well, if that's allowed during the game.

@mod - would scum be playing to their win condition if they sought to tie (as opposed to trying to win outright)?

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If you voted lizardqueen right now, she'll have to vote you, and I'll be stuck choosing between you. That means you'd still have to talk, think, and whatnot to help (or "help") me sort things out. So you might as well cut straight to the thinking and talking bit.

---

So, Lizardqueen's meta was probably a dead end. Her scum game (viewtopic.php?f=11&t=72345) was slightly more like this than like her town game (viewtopic.php?f=84&t=68502). She's a little less awkward in both of those than here, though. She was slightly more convivial in her town game, and more analytical in her scum game. Neither felt quite like this game. Her newbie town game 4 years ago actually felt the most like this one in tone and depth. (viewtopic.php?f=50&t=30141)

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After Umlaut has answered, can you explain your rationale for asking?

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@lizardqueen - I understand wanting to follow up about why things weren't followed up. However, Umlaut did engage with me regarding this speculation. I was kind of expecting you to show some kind of acknowledgement or reaction to the mod's answer. Especially since it all but squashes the idea of scum attempting a draw.

On your point about Umlaut's effort, I agree that I'd like to see more, so I can make a more informed decision. It's been my stance that it's on town to be transparent and cooperative. I understand that it comes with some risk (because it informs them), but the reward is that it forces scum to be more verbose. So regardless of his alignment, communication is key. As far as cooperation, he's been doing that. He's been sharing his reads and collaborating. All that said, effort is NAI.

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@Umlaut - feel free to chime in with your thoughts when you get a chance. We have 4 days left, but this game has been slow. So if we assume a 48 hour turnaround for post->question->response, we're running out of time for meaningful Q&A.

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Yay! Content to read through and stuff!

I'll be going through this in a few hours.

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Okay, in response to both of you, either both of you are missing something/confused, or I am.

@Umlaut - I found that you made a surprising omission in your "who would have shot Vedith" analysis. Vedith was outspoken against me the second half of yesterday. So in theory, I would have had the most obvious motive to shoot him, right?

@lizardqueen - There's no way Vedith would have been trying to direct the other scum to shoot at me unless he wasn't planning to shoot me, and he was very obviously planning to shoot me. If both scum intentionally shot at the same town target, they'd be against their win condition. It would put them 1 v 2 v 1, which is a more desperate situation than they'd face just shooting at random. I've played scum with Vedith before, and he's a more than competent player, and coordination is not a huge priority for him, even when scum have daytalk. The bottom line is, Vedith had a reason for his closing remark, and I'm sure he was motivated by a sole win.

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@lizardqueen and @Umlaut - do you have any questions for me? Is there anything more you need me to answer or explain that would help you sort things out?

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@Umlaut - I found that you made a surprising omission in your "who would have shot Vedith" analysis. Vedith was outspoken against me the second half of yesterday. So in theory, I would have had the most obvious motive to shoot him, right?

If you're a wolf then the only thing you care about in your nightkill choice is who is mafia. Whether Vedith suspects you is irrelevant unless you think it makes him scum.

Fair enough.

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If both scum shoot the same town player, the game ends in a tie for them.

I will make a final attempt here because this seems to be a keystone assumption for your narrative.

If both scum shot at the same townie, the gamestate would end up 1 v 2 v 1, which is

not a tie

. Day 2 would have been the battle of scum vs. scum to convince the two townies to vote the other, so the remaining scum could win. No one would choose to go head-to-head with their opponent in the main thread when they could a)NK scum, or b)each shoot a townie, and draw.

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Wow. Okay, sorry.

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Okay, so you win that point. We still don't know if Vedith was aiming for a tie, but at least it's almost as plausible as going for a win. I know I said I'd drop this, but I think I've stumbled onto something.

You believe that Vedith was aiming for a tie, and his closing remark was designed to inform the other scum to follow his lead to NK me. Is that correct?

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If so, let's assume that's the case. What could we extrapolate from that point? I'll give all the scenarios I can come up with:
- if I was other scum, and Vedith aimed at me: I'd be dead, or we'd both be dead (depending on where I aimed)
- if the other scum took the hint to kill me, but Vedith was bluffing: two players would have died last night.
- if the other scum took the hint, and chose to shoot Vedith instead: Vedith would be the only NK.
- if they both shot at whoever for other reasons: impossible to tell

are there any others you can think of?

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Feel free to jump in too, Umlaut, if you can think of others.

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Hunh, I did read the rules but I somehow failed to catch that point (that 2:1:1 is a scum draw, town loss).

If so, let's assume [Vedith was aiming for a tie]. What could we extrapolate from that point? I'll give all the scenarios I can come up with:
- if I was other scum, and Vedith aimed at me: I'd be dead, or we'd both be dead (depending on where I aimed)
- if the other scum took the hint to kill me, but Vedith was bluffing: two players would have died last night.
- if the other scum took the hint, and chose to shoot Vedith instead: Vedith would be the only NK.
- if they both shot at whoever for other reasons: impossible to tell

are there any others you can think of?

Firstly, wolves don't shoot people, they maul them

Secondly, I don't think it's Vedith's style to negotiate for a tie when there's a win available. Vedith shot whoever he thought was a wolf, and he was mistaken. But I suppose it's possible he wanted the wolf to fall for it and shoot boring (who he thought to be scum) while he shot whoever he thought was scum. In that case he probably shot me and we can conclude I'm town. It's worth noting that, as far as I can recall, Vedith has called me scum in every game we've ever played together where he was town.

If I

do

suppose that Vedith really did want a tie, and thought boring was town, he would have just shot boring and hoped the other scum did the same (assuming he understood the rules). In that case we can conclude boring is town.

Though, now that I think of it, the following thought process has merit: "I think boring is town. I'm going to shoot him tonight. In case I'm wrong, though, I'll hint for the wolf to maul her as well. If they go along with that I'll at least draw."

I agree. I don't think Vedith would negotiate a tie with an unknown player. Hell, he barely negotiated strategy with a shared wincon and daytalk. Why pray to the void when you can act independently?

However, lizardqueen believes that Vedith aimed for a draw. I think that will prove far more significant than what Vedith actually did. I want to wait for lizardqueen's contribution on this.

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I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

This is exactly what I needed. I'll elaborate after lq's walls.

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@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

Remember my primary point: I think Vedith assumed I was scum. He could get town cred for scum!boring flip, and pit you two against each other.

Thinking about it again, I made a

huge

mistake in my conspiracy theory (I remembered it later in the same fucking post! Actually, you didn't notice it either, so makes me feel a little better)

I forgot that if both scum had hit their mark they'd have just tied and there'd be no today.

So there'd be no need to play off my death. If he had successfully killed me, the game would have been over (because that would have meant the other scum had aimed at town too).

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

I had meant thick-skinned like you weren't simply suspecting players simply because they were suspecting you. You have been a bit off, as I've already mentioned, but you haven't been particularly prone to OMGUS.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

I'll look at those. I just need to understand if the vibe I'm getting is your personality (NAI) or if something actually is "off".

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

Suspect me all you want, but please don't vote until we've all three had some time to work things out a little more. I'm sure you understand that a single TvT vote will lose the game.

Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

I meant, I realized that there's no way the game would have made it to Day 2 if Vedith had successfully NK'd me. That's because it would mean the other scum didn't hit Vedith, and they would have tied (we'd have lost). So from Vedith's perspective, again, assuming he thought I was the other scum, I'd have flipped scum, and he'd go to Day 2 looking like town. At worst, from my [revised] theory of his perspective, he'd hit me, I'd flip town, and he'd tie with the other scum.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

However, I think I've spent enough time on this theory. If there's something still confusing about my thought process, and it will help you sort me, feel free to bring it up. Otherwise, i think I've picked this bone dry.

Boring, in these posts you seem aware that if both scum hit town (whether it's the same townie or not) they'll tie. Later, you see to think that both scum hitting the same town leads to a 1v2v1. Can you explain this?

If they each hit different tow, it would have been 1 v1 v 1. That, I thought was a tie.

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I'm short on time. In my explanation for Umlaut:

I was leaning toward you being the town. I needed to see that healthy dose of questioning me. I was getting wary because you seemed to be giving me a free pass this whole game.

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Lizardqueen is posting stuff.

As for Vedith, provocative behavior toward an active player, when he could be acting friendly, tells me he's probably town.

If I'm left only lynching between Umlaut and Assemblerotws, I guess I'd rather lynch Assemblerotws, as things currently stand. His reaction to LQ's vote looked like he was trying to instigate Vedith to OMGUS. Also, the strategic-not-strategic lurking in such a short game is scummy. I'm willing to put him at L-1 when we get a little closer to deadline, if nothing changes.

Can you elaborate on your Vedith read here boring? Why did his behaviour towards you (a naked vote) seem town to you?

That was it.

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My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

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I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

I was ready to vote with this post.

I don't know what my availability will be today, so I'm leaving my vote. I'll post at more length if I can.

VOTE: lizardqueen

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I can't be absolutely sure, but I don't think I'm going to be changing my mind either, so it hardly matters at this point. I know lizardqueen has put in the greater effort, and I'm not discounting that.

And to explain my read neutrality: I've intentionally tried to keep my reads close to my chest because it's easier to be manipulated in close quarters. If I was too open with them, it would just give whoever is scum a more solid handle on how to interact with me and the other town. I wanted to avoid that, and let people self-direct as much as possible.

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My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

I think it likely means you're cleared since it means you likely were Vedith's target. You could still be the scum if he was saying that as a feint, and aimed for me or Umlaut while hoping we aim at you.

That still clears me, if you think he was hoping someone else aimed at me.

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You're supposed to vote me now, by the way. If you were town, I'd be mechanically scum to you.

[boring]

How does keeping your reads close to your chest fit with the view the town should be cooperative?

P-edit: I don't see how you're mechanically scum? I don't know your alingment until Umlaut gets on and hammers or not. So I'm hoping to get you to unvote before then.

Easy. I cooperate, interact, openly share thoughts. I just don't want scum to know where I'm leaning in these situations because it lets them cloud things up.

And we have less than 20 hours left. There's either going to be a hammer or an autolose. I'm mechanically scum to you if you're town because I've either let Umlaut win as a dumb town, or I'm scum.

You've played this whole day pushing toward Umlaut being the scum without outright saying it. It's been the theme of all your posts. The fact that you never seemed willing to commit yourself to the decision suggests you've just been for exhibition to convince me, but keeping your options open in case you had to depend on him instead.

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I fucking knew it!

Okay, I'm sorry about this being last minute. I'm a little frustrated, because I felt like I had been preparing a lot of little things (which brought me to the conclusion that it had to be her).

In short, I have a few points to make and I don't have time to edit, so I'm sorry too if any sentences are incomprehensible.

1) I skimmed her walls and saw, LQ is still on about my my "town should be transparent" post and my "I clearly wasn't wearing my reads on my sleeve" post. It seems like flailing to me, but I have the benefit of surety. Manipulation is a two-way street. I don't like gimmicks or fake hammers, but that doesn't mean you can't feel around or withhold information in the hopes that scum will show their hand. I made general remarks that would suggest I will townlean those who behave a certain way, and I watch to see what happens. Similarly, I refrain from showing how I'm leaning because a) it can make the last town act nervous and unnatural, and b) it gives scum as little information as possible.

2) I was townleaning Umlaut because of his tone, his thought process, and his general approach. Despite his relatively lower verbiage, I got more genuineness from his posts and more transparency. He didn't muddle them up with a bunch of crap, and he didn't seem to be driving at any undercurrents. LQ, on the other hand, seemed to be doing the opposite. She set up a narrative (as we all did) about what happened, but one with an obvious conclusion of Umlaut being the scum. The more Umlaut suggested he'd be going for her, the more obvious her theories seemed to point. I encouraged the topic after I said I was done with NK theory because I wanted to see how close to the line she'd go. She kept up her emergency escape route more than seems town.

3) My reads yesterday weren't wishy-washy, they were ill-defined. There was like no content. Assemberotws seemed to be around but wasn't contributing any content. That pushed him from lurker to deliberately withdrawing. I don't regret voting him, as he was the most scummy player at the time. I wanted to wait on LQ because she was at least doing something. It's easier to catch an active scum than an inactive one. So letting LQ to today, assuming they were both scum, made the most sense.

4) I waited to vote until you wrote your promised walls. I figured they'd have been influenced by my vote if I had voted, and more material to work with is always better. Then I got busy, and didn't have time to actuallyread them. I'll explain my time crunch after the game.

5) LQ has said a very large amount of nothing sprinkled with AtE-ish comments. She's been reasonably clever in her efforts, and efforts, they've been. If effort was AI, I'd have voted differently. But it's not. We're lacking game-solving substance from her, and these last few arguments of hers look very obviously to me as grasping at straws. However, I have the benefit of knowing.

6) It's really been fun playing with both of you, regardless of whether we win or not. I think you played a good game, lizardqueen.

I might be able to pop in in the morning, and I might not. Assume you've got all the information I have to give before the timer runs out. I'm really, really sorry again for the poor timing.

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That was a close one!

I'm sorry for ditching out at the end, I do feel bad about that. My husband came down with the flu, so I could hardly tell him to bug off while I argued with strangers on the internet.

Thank you for making this a fun game, all of you!

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Mod topic

There were no other PTs.

Anyway, what did you think about the setup? Was it a success?

I liked it, and I thought it was successful. I think the biggest danger is that it's so small, everyone has to be invested in the game. But the setup gave everyone an equal stake in the win condition, which makes it more exciting.

And I'm sorry for so frequently claiming incorrect best practice in this setup. I just figured it was a good way to look like I was trying to solve things.