Micro 737: Chosen Mafia (Day 4)

[Keychain]

Hi!

VOTE: tman2nd

You've been the third vote on a wagon that reached L-1, twice, pointed out when it was at L-1 but didn't think it worth unvoting even though scum could very well be angling for a quickhammer on a chosen townie. You seem like you're trying to slip under the radar by following popular opinion.

[Keychain]

What? Wasn't that the L-2 vote? Or are you saying something else?

VOTE: PMysterious

[Keychain]

Oh, I gotcha. Thank you. Good point.

[Keychain]

As long as people are aware it's L-1, a quickhammer would be very scummy. Scum who is quickhammering wouldn't be able to pretend that they didn't notice.

Depends on the scumteam - they might think it would still leave them in a better position, since their major obstacle is removed from the game. You're giving them the opportunity to make that choice - scum can quickhammer if it puts them in a better position, or they can not. But it's not a cut and dried "they definitely won't so it's fine" kind of situation.

[Keychain]

I suppose mafia could think it's a good idea to trade a mafia for a chosen townie (I wouldn't), but this would always be a possibility when someone is at L-1. I'm not opposed to people being at L-1, my concern was with people being at unanounced L-1.

I don't think I quite explained what I meant. Logically, mafia will only quickhammer when it's

in their best interests

(or they at least think it is). So it would probably leave us in a worse position if they did it, not better like you suggested in 28.

However - my vote is on you more for meekly following popular opinion on two page 1 wagons than for a theory disagreement.

VOTE: PMysterious

Hey Bulba, did you realise Dunn unvoted and so it was L-2 or was this almost a quickhammer?

[Keychain]

^That was a weird post, Gorny. It seemed like it was trying to say something useful but didn't say a lot of anything - just agreed with someone, hypothesised about an extremely unlikely game mechanic, and promised not to quickhammer when I don't think you even can after Dunn's unvote.
Do you think Dunn's posting is suspicious? You called it a potential "ploy", after all.


@Bulbazoor:
I actually would like to hear a response to this.

VOTE: PMysterious

Hey Bulba, did you realise Dunn unvoted and so it was L-2 or was this almost a quickhammer?

@Mod: Request for Dunn to communicate using words.

No no, I want to see how long he can keep it up for!

[Keychain]

So to clarify - you think it's suspicious because it could be feigning a post restriction? I can see that.

However I think the actions he's taken and points he's made have been reasonably towny, regardless of whether he expressed them in pictures or words.

[Keychain]

What about what Dunn has "said" has been towny to you?

Mostly pointing out the contradiction in what you said regarding unannounced L-1 votes, in 29.
Being first to unvote away from L-1, twice, makes me feel like he's conscious of the possibility of a quickhammer.

Actually Dunn can you get more specific on what you're pointing out in 35?

[Keychain]

Are we going to play twenty questions so I can work out exactly what you mean? I'm up for that.

So he gave LUV a free pass for not noticing, despite saying that the point of announcing L-1 was that scum wouldn't be able to pretend they didn't notice?

That's what I'm seeing, at least.

Or more of a general "why is it okay to not announce L-1 when you don't notice" kind of thing?

[Keychain]

In the second post, I was saying that the reason I hadn't voted LUV for putting someone at L-1 unannounced was because It seemed like they had already acknowledged that that had happened, so I didn't have any reason to push in that direction. With Bulbazoor, they put PM at L-1 didn't say anything, and still hasn't said anything about it.

Gosh.

If all they have to do is acknowledge what they did to get you to leave them alone, what is the point in it at all?

Your decision to push Bulba instead of LUV makes no sense as a way to find scum. If anything, it's a policy vote, trying to pressure people for bad play.

Why does LUV acknowledging his unannounced L-1 vote make him less likely to be scum?


... And now I'm getting nervy about Dunn, because I feel like I'm making his points for him.

[Keychain]

In the second post, I was saying that the reason I hadn't voted LUV for putting someone at L-1 unannounced was because It seemed like they had already acknowledged that that had happened, so I didn't have any reason to push in that direction. With Bulbazoor, they put PM at L-1 didn't say anything, and still hasn't said anything about it.

Gosh.

If all they have to do is acknowledge what they did to get you to leave them alone, what is the point in it at all?

Your decision to push Bulba instead of LUV makes no sense as a way to find scum. If anything, it's a policy vote, trying to pressure people for bad play.

Why does LUV acknowledging his unannounced L-1 vote make him less likely to be scum?


... And now I'm getting nervy about Dunn, because I feel like I'm making his points for him.

...
I actually am, aren't I.

The answer to all of the questions regarding my l-1 vote: I hadn't seen that it was l-1 and

hadn't been able to get around to responding until today.

I also wanted to get some reactions from you guys. And now that I think I got enough, I'll UNVOTE:

(bolding mine)

Yes okay, but you did actually post (44) after people started making a fuss about your vote. So you

had

been able to get around to responding, you just inexplicably commented on something else.
And now you're claiming that it was also for reactions. How is that the case, if it was a mistake and then you "hadn't been able to get around to responding"? Where did you make a deliberate action to get reactions?

BTD6 was the first one to point out that 8 players had confirmed, yet the game did not start. Mafia must have taken a while to veto. PMysterious was the one person who failed to confirm, so perhaps they were Mafia and the other member was waiting for them, in 6 what if they are mafia and just saying that as a protective smokescreen?

I did wonder this, to be honest - it's probably good play for scum to delay their veto until everyone has confirmed, so they don't end up making the last person to confirm practically conftown and instead bring suspicion on them. Assuming you're saying what I think you're saying.

In addition - PMysterious was very almost quickhammered, if Bulba really didn't realise. If Dunn hadn't unvoted, that would have been the day's lynch right there, based on being the last to confirm. That's really concerning.

At this point and after re-reading posts 26 through 33 I'm getting more of a feeling that Dunn isn't so scummy looking as before, but I'm still not sure on the posting solely via images.

Also noting that Bulba hasn't answered any questions directed at him 38, 40

(post tag fixed)

I notice that you mention posts I've made twice (quoted above) but offer no opinion on me. I'm feeling just a little bit hurt

Im fully aware that that puts him at L-1 too

Why do you want him at L-1?

[Keychain]

Hi Mulch! You've mentioned a couple of the same things I have on your replace in.

I think there's a decent chance I'm a chosen because my pred isn't highly regarded and mafia probably would pick someone very good they could guarabteedly nightkill.

This statement worries me - it's like you're trying immediately come up with reasons to not be lynched. You mean your predecessor wasn't likely the veto choice?

Also, everyone, thoughts on tman? Iso him and see if you see town there.

I'm still voting him.

So, I see Bulbazoor has explained himself. I'm going to still vote him because the unannounced L-1's are the most suspicious things that have happened so far. And yes, I know this applies to LUV and PM as well, but I only have one vote.

This sort of thing is why.

tman:

Assuming Bulba is being honest about not realising his vote was L-1, that means that LUV's unannounced L-1 vote was

very nearly a quickhammer

. If Dunn hadn't unvoted, that would have been Day 1 over right there.

So if you're voting people for unannounced votes, that means that LUV's vote was the one that came the closest to the actual situation you claim to be worried about.

Why does this not concern you?

And why are you using a policy (not announcing L-1) to determine your vote instead of looking for scum?

[Keychain]

That's true. But although you are right about the wagon being pointless, don't you think he would want to get out of it if he's scum, and be more apathetic as town? Considering the game state.

Early on, it seems someone could potentially try and lurk away a wagon because it's unlikely to go through based on lack of content.

[Keychain]

I think he would do that as scum because of the chance of an accidental hammer.

How often have you seen that actually be a tactic by scum, though. I feel like I've never seen that, lol.

It could happen in this setup - if scum figured getting a chosen townie out of their way was worth the small amount of suspicion for not announcing L-1. Normally a 1 for 1 trade is not worth it though, yeah.

The main reason I choose to vote Bulba is first off because I hadn't thought about how LUV also qualified for that reasoning. And then later, when it was pointed out, Bulba is the one who had votes on them, so it would be easier to pressure him. Plus, isn't LUV V/LA and with an end date that is right after I go V/LA? But, that is a good point how in that scenario, LUV's vote did nearly lead to that situation I was worried about. I just can't easily pressure them when I'm going to be V/LA once I'm not.

That makes sense, if you choose your votes primarily for the purpose of pressuring someone for content. I don't really, so this could be a theory disagreement on this point.

But this post does echo my earlier concern and the original reason for my vote - you are following popular opinion. You are staying on a wagon because there are other people on it. Why?


In 95, you listed a bunch of people that you wanted to hear more from. Then you reiterated your vote on Bulba was for "lack of any real content", as well as being scummy within the small amount of content given.

You've picked a single one of a number of potential candidates, without really looking at the others. In a setup where scum is trying to get particular people lynched, this bothers me a lot that you're choosing to hold Bulba at L-1 for pressure when he could easily be a chosen townie.

What do you think about the content BTD6 has provided so far?You've given thoughts on and/or interacted with everyone else, but very little on BTD6. More on LUV as well, please. He and Bulba are pretty similar with regards to content. The V/LA is not a good reason to withhold a scumread - is there something else?

[Keychain]

@BTD6

: tman taking up a place in the middle of both wagons is something I find scummy regardless of the setup. It's a way to keep under the radar.

I haven't checked your maths, sorry. But I imagine it also depends on scum's perception of how likely they are to be lynched themselves, or how lynchable they consider the chosen townies to be. For example - they might not quickhammer Bulba, even if he was chosen and they were given the opportunity, if they think they can get a lynch on him later without sacrificing one of them.

What's your opinion on player behaviour so far? Pretty much everything you've said has been based around the setup.

I wanted Bulbz at L-1 for two reasons, and have held off this long to answer:

I wanted to see if:

A. Someone would quickhammer - possibly catching scum in the act.
B. See if anyone unvoted, if BLubz flips scum it might be his partner unvoting.

Since no one did either... well we're at square one.

BTD6 has now made the point that I couldn't manage to explain in 34 and 38 - that it would possibly be advantageous for scum to quickhammer. Why would you actively give them that opportunity? The trade is probably not in our favour. If they choose to take it, it's definitely not.

Your second point is also questionable. For example - if Dunn were to flip scum, would he be partnered with PMysterious or Bulbazoor, both of whom he has unvoted? I think it more likely that scum!Bulba's partner would not be on the wagon at all. You're looking for associatives instead of scum.

And now that you've got what you were looking for, why are you still voting him?

Gorny, mysterious, and tman are the scummiest after a quick read. Gorny, why do you think bulbs would be so blatantly putting people at l-1 as either allignment? Like, assume he's town and then that he's scum. Why would he do these things?

Don't know. Only he can answer that question and I bet he won't do so.

Random guess, if he's town, he might be trying to get a reaction out of people.

If he's scum...well.

This is a terrible answer! Can you try again, maybe think it through a bit more?

@Mulch:

it looks here like you're asking leading questions to get Gorny to come to a certain conclusion. If that's the case, why aren't you just making your point outright? It feels manipulative.


However:
VOTE: Gorny

Content does leave much to be desired.

[Keychain]

Go for it, Mulch.

I only noticed until after people started pointing it out.

Dear heart, would you mind expanding on that just a bit?
Like by talking about what you meant by trying to get reactions, and what reactions you got?
You're in kind of a precarious position right now.

[Keychain]

Oh hey. I don't know if you're talking to me or PM, but I think I just needed to think about that a bit longer. I thought that quote contradicted 66, but maybe it's just confusingly worded. So he deliberately didn't unvote in 44 in order to get reactions?

Questions on what reactions he got still stand.

I only noticed until after people started pointing it out.

So, you only noticed the L-1 until after people started to point it out, yet you were looking for reactions.

Wouldn't putting someone at L-1 without reason give the most reaction?

It's a contradiction in itself, and I am becoming convinced that you were doing this with the intent on trying to get a quickhammer with your scum partner or a village idiot. Either way, a quickhammer would have been in your best interest, and the "I was looking for reactions" excuse was to seem like you're Town.

I'm seeing a web of lies from Bulbafake, and all of the lies leads to one conclusion. Bulba, is Mafia Scum (not the website).

(bolding mine)

Can you give your opinion on any other players? You jumped on Bulba pretty early. Though if you're town, I suppose you've got more reason than anyone else to be paranoid that he was trying to quickhammer a Chosen townie.
I'd also like more explanation on the bolded - I have no idea what you mean here.

Dunnstral hasn't really made any actual stances. He's only really pointed to things.

This one was disappointing!
Dunn, how do you feel about Bulba being at L-1, and what are your thoughts on tman now?
Anything else you'd like to share?

[Keychain]

I'm awfully suspicious of Dunn and not buying the "post restriction"

VOTE: Dunnstral

Can you explain how you got to this, from your previous position voting Bulba? Did you think about your answer to Mulch's question at all?

When I get around to it, I'll post a list with my reads.

Yes please! Sooner rather than later, if possible.

[Keychain]

@tman: We seem to be doubling up on questions to Gorny regarding his lacklustre 119. I was trying to be a bit more vague about it though, to see if he'd already realised he wasn't making sense between his posts and his vote. He hasn't answered either of us though so I'm not sure where that's going. Will you be back for deadline or do you have to decide on a final vote before you go?

@Gorny: a response to 121 would also be awesome. I'm currently deciding whether to start my campaign for your lynch in earnest. I think you're a much better bet for scum than Bulba right now.
And the number of people who are just sitting back and watching makes me think that scum are counting on plurality lynch to take out townies for them without having to do much work at all.
(in particular, BTD6 and Dunnstral, and to some extent PMysterious)

[Keychain]

I feel like bulby is approaching TWTBAW.

What does that acronym mean?

The thing really scummy for me here is the deflection on how they didn't respond to the UZI point, by saying "I could pressure him but not him."

To be honest that only makes sense to me as being scummy as an associative thing - like he's avoiding pressuring his partner too hard.

I actually think tman has been looking a lot more towny in recent posts - his response to my questions has been less making excuses and more trying to set me straight.

But, again, I don't want to be that guy that white knighted the scum that we were about to lynch.

This is a really odd concern for town to have, Mulch.

[Keychain]

2) I've been getting gut town vibes from him too.

I get nervous now when people agree with me without giving good reasons. I'd like you to explain that one a bit further, please, and why it contradicts what you've been saying about him giving off scumtells like tman pointed out.

3) not really, I've been pretty shit my last few town games and I'm pretty self conscious at the moment.

Eeek. I really really don't like this answer.

I get where you're coming from, I'm feeling a similar way, but self consciousness doesn't really translate for me to a statement that says "hey if this guy flips scum don't blame me for trying to save him". As town I'd expect you to be working it out, not making excuses in advance for if you're wrong.

Right now I'm wondering if BTDmaker could be scum. They've done 3 huge wall posts on theory, but haven't been involved in the game. I need more from them.

128 reads as pretty fake to me btw. Anyone else get that vibe?

I've talked about both these already. Yeah, I'm not really happy with BTD's contribution thus far and their reliance on theory for content, and I would also like PM to explain that post a bit more. I wouldn't say fake, though. Bulba almost quickhammered him. I can see him getting kind of miffed about that.

You're certainly keeping your options open regarding possible scum. Any townreads?

[Keychain]

But like... you're just going to leave your vote parked? without even justifying it?


@Dunn: I continue to be bad at tracking votes, sorry. I thought Bulba was at L-1 for a lot longer than he actually was. I have more questions for you though.

That series of posts in 155 is interesting. Particularly the about turn by Gorny for no apparent reason. Kind of seems to me like scum scared to be on a townie wagon, and scraping for reasons to scumread someone else as an excuse to get off it. That's what I get out of it but I don't think it's what you're saying. Can you get more specific on that one?

157 - why do you feel like that about tman?

Is the vote on BTD6 because they're still on their RVS vote or something else?


@Mulch:

Town reads on Uzi Keychain and maybe a slight one on dunnstrral and bulbs.

Why the townread on LUV?

[Keychain]

Um excuse me Bulbazoor but I was expecting your next post to be your reads?

I'm currently voting Gorny primarily because their votes feel more like scum than town. The one on you even though they couldn't think of any reason for what you did to be scum motivated, then the one on Dunn for a superficial reason, even though they said they were finding him less scummy.

Uh

?
Game stall?

[Keychain]

VOTE: mysterious

:/

Why? I thought that post was actually all right. His reads make sense, though he seems to be townreading for activity. That seems unwise, especially with regards to you, but I can't see what would lead you to switch your vote on that. Gorny still seems to be the scummier of the two.

Gorny: Null/Scum (Active, yet suspicious. Mostly targeting someone for a speech thing that is going on with Dunn, more so than actual scumhunting.)

I'm going with my gut and I'm sticking to it.

Okay. I think you're using your gut to dodge giving any reasons, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for a second. Can you explain exactly why you think Dunn's posting is scum motivated? Do you think he should be lynched for it?

@LUV:

It would be great if you could chip in before end of day!

[Keychain]

@Mulch:

Town reads on Uzi Keychain and maybe a slight one on dunnstrral and bulbs.

Why the townread on LUV?

Nearly forgot this. Mulch? LUV had barely been in the game until this recent post, why were you townreading him?

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert

Dunn mate I'm trying so hard to interpret you because the pictures make me laugh, but I feel like at this point I just don't understand at all. Why the change from BTD6? I would be more inclined that way, just because of the way they contributed theory but nothing else before going V/LA.

The wagon is not great, though. Two votes have just been sitting there since RVS and the third is another unexplained gut read. It's a lynch that relies on plurality and waiting until deadline, which I find worrying.

The L-1 stuff just seems like a shot in the dark at this point. I can see either alignment making that move and I think its inconclusive due to how we didn't have a proper RVS.

What is a "proper RVS"?

[Keychain]

Why LUV instead of BTD6, though? Their actions have been scummier in general - before they went on V/LA, all they contributed was theory spec. Then they left an RVS vote in place when they left.

The more I think about it, the more I get suspicious, ugh. Too much like someone just watching a town pull itself apart.
VOTE: BTD6_maker

[Keychain]

Okay. Well, I'm glad we agree.

[Keychain]

@Mulch:

Town reads on Uzi Keychain and maybe a slight one on dunnstrral and bulbs.

Why the townread on LUV?

Nearly forgot this. Mulch? LUV had barely been in the game until this recent post, why were you townreading him?

[Keychain]

Dunn feels towny at the moment

I'm probably not voting Dunn.

Why is Dunn the only player you've commented on and why do you townread him?

Who do you think is scum, and why are you not voting them?

[Keychain]

And I agree


with you

(mostly)


But if he's town, he needs to get his a into g and help scumhunt.

Mulch, what do you think about BTD6?

[Keychain]

Yeah that's why I don't like the PM lynch.

There's only three people on the wagon, and one has been there since RVS after hardcore lurking and posting some theory. PM is pretty scummy but the wagon composition is far worse. I'd much prefer a BTD6 lynch.

[Keychain]

Oh god Dunnstral is still only posting in pictures. I'm laughing but I'm also crying.

There's no one correct way to play Mafia Keychain

Very true. If there was, it would be a terribly boring game! That said, I don't really know why you chose to respond this way to my post and why you thought it was relevant at daystart.

I think I'm a chosen townie

1) I have good tonwncred position

2) I wasn't nightkilled

3) Agent Jin was very likely one of the people NOT chosen to be not chosen.

VOTE: Mulch
There is only one member of the scum team left. They are going to be very keen on keeping themselves alive. This sounds like you're trying to make yourself unlynchable and it concerns me.

[Keychain]

VOTE: keychain

You are scum who need to push a chosen townie to win

There are two chosen townies, aren't there? I'm pretty sure everyone in this game is easier to lynch than you right now. So why would I be trying to push you instead of the other one?
On the other hand, there's only one scum.

It seems your genius plan here is to claim to be a chosen townie to give you a reason to OMGUS anyone who scumreads you.

And you led a counter wagon to save a buddy

Then why did you vote Dunn at the start of the day and not me?


Your hair-trigger reaction to my vote is way out of proportion for a townie.

Busing is much worse for scum in this set up because they can lose without ever being lynched.

How does this follow?

I know Mulch made the PM lynch happen. But if he can then sell himself as a chosen townie because of things like not getting NKed and not being a likely veto, the bus becomes worthwhile, and Mulch is someone I can see trying to pull it off.

But how does only having one scum mean they're more likely to somehow get endgamed?

[Keychain]

Trying to regain motivation here. I think I used it all up on Day 1. Help please.

Gorny, what is up with you? You had a promising start to the day, then you resumed your bizarro push on the low hanging fruit.
Also I still want to know what you were getting at with 202.

On the other hand, tman is going great.

Oh god Dunnstral is still only posting in pictures. I'm laughing but I'm also crying.

VOTE: Mulch
There is only one member of the scum team left. They are going to be very keen on keeping themselves alive. This sounds like you're trying to make yourself unlynchable and it concerns me.

Flowers? How sweet.

And I don't know what you're saying with the second one. You disagree? Your 244 suggests that you think Gorny is scum and you're a chosen townie.

Also why did you vote tman in 243?

Whaaaat even is this face
Where are these pictures coming from

[Keychain]

It's not that they're more likely to be endgamed. It's that benefit of busing, being viewed as town, is less effective, because you can lose even if people don't think you're mafia.

How can they lose without people thinking they're mafia?
If a single mafia member kills every night but can't lynch their chosen townies, they will end up in 3P LyLo with the two chosen townies and will either win or get lynched, as per usual. I'm not sure about a situation where they no kill. But if they can sell themselves well enough as a chosen townie, they can win that LyLo situation, which is what I'm worried about here.

[Keychain]

Ah okay, thanks.

[Keychain]

*sigh*

Gorny. what the heck.

not only did you not respond to me again

but that most recent question from tman was

the

question, the one where you explain why scum!Dunn would be doing this and not town!Dunn, the one where you tell us exactly why he's scum and should be lynched, and you failed to do it.

So just for you, I've gone through and found every time you mentioned Dunn, and provided exciting (not really exciting) commentary. Some quotes have been edited to remove irrelevant content.

Spoiler: Who likes wallposts? I like wallposts!

Could Dunn be post restricted? Or is it just a ploy?

Hmmm...


UNVOTE: BTD6


...and no, I'm not going to quickhammer.

The suspicion begins.

Yes I do think Dunn's posting is suspicious. I had considered asking if post restrictions was allowed or not based on the rules, but then realized, I might not get an answer from the mod either way. So I can't be sure. I've seen post restrictions before, but never saw a rule in a game allowing them or not, so you never know when someone is faking it.

Gorny believes it could be a faked post restriction.

So to clarify - you think it's suspicious because it could be feigning a post restriction? I can see that.

However I think the actions he's taken and points he's made have been reasonably towny, regardless of whether he expressed them in pictures or words.

Yes, and fair enough.

Passing out now.

I say he looks towny anyway - Gorny is still suspicious but says "fair enough" showing some kind of similar belief?

I've played games where post restrictions could be inflicted by a player onto another player (through the mod) and not mentioned in the rules if there was or was not a post restriction in game. So I can never be sure one way or the other.

Night.

Here is where he justifies his belief in there possibly being a post restriction in the game.

@Gorny: were those games open setups?

I'll admit, I don't have anything to add yet, other than following or commenting on the wagons on Bulbazoor and PMysterious. Though i am suspicious of Dunn for communicating solely by pictures from the 1930's.

Back to suspicion, abandon the analysis.

Are you going to?

BTD6 was the first one to point out that 8 players had confirmed, yet the game did not start. Mafia must have taken a while to veto. PMysterious was the one person who failed to confirm, so perhaps they were Mafia and the other member was waiting for them, in 6 what if they are mafia and just saying that as a protective smokescreen?

Notice how Dunnstral was the first one to happily follow the wagon and vote Pmysterious in 9? Either Dunn is scum and ids BTD's partner - or Dunn bought BTD's line of reasoning.

You (tman2nd) show up in 11 and then also vote Pm with noting more than a "Good Morning" comment, pushing the wagon to 3 votes. LUV adds a blind vote then Dunn unvotes.

If Dunn is scum, then staying odd Pm's wagon if it goes to lynch would be a good thing. Also, I'm not sure how Dunn catching the fact that Bulb replaced Sulfur is a "good catch" since it happened in pre game and not once the game started, it's not like people ere talking about Sulfur already and then Dunn points out Sulfur isn't playing.

...

At this point and after re-reading posts 26 through 33 I'm getting more of a feeling that Dunn isn't so scummy looking as before, but I'm still not sure on the posting solely via images.

Also noting that Bulba hasn't answered any questions directed at him (post]38[/post], 40, he posted in 44 "Dunn feels towny", then was asked by LUV in 45, "Why don't you suspect him?" to which there really was no response, other than "I hadn't seen that it was L-1" 66, and no answer on why he why he sees Dunn in a more town light. Seems like a generalized answer to me.

So after that I'm more suspicious of Bulba than anyone and only slightly as far as Dunn and BTD are concerned.

I'm willing to put a vote on Bulba but a lot less inclined to vote for any others unless something happens.

He looks at Dunn's actions here and how other players have interacted with him, and finds him less scummy as a result.

Why would Dunn have BTD as partner as scum?

I thought that initially based on Dunn voting PM in 9, but it's a lot less likely now considering how the game has progressed.

He saw an early possible associative and disregarded it.

I'm awfully suspicious of Dunn and not buying the "post restriction"

VOTE: Dunnstral

Back to being suspicious of the posting and ignoring the fact that every time he's looked at Dunn's actions, he's thought Dunn to be not scummy.

Gorny: Null/Scum (Active, yet suspicious. Mostly targeting someone for a speech thing that is going on with Dunn, more so than actual scumhunting.)

I'm going with my gut and I'm sticking to it.

Gorny, do you have indigestion? Also this is an interaction with flipped scum.

I think Dunn's posting images only is a cover. If he's mafia that gives him some help in staying under the radar while saying nothing at all. Worth a lynch in my opinion.

OH MY GOD SOUND THE ALARM

This is the only time that Gorny provides a reason that scum!Dunn might be using this tactic.

@Gorny: can you elaborate on this at all?

Some thoughts:

I'm still suspicious of Dunn and his "post restriction", but even though i stuck to Dunn yesterday with my vote, PM ended up getting lynched and turned out to be Scum.

Cases against people and why they

could be

scum, purely based off the votes on PM yesterday, note these are all just thoughts I have, take them however you want:

...

Dunn:

Second vote on PM, then unvoted in 14 and voted Bulba in 15. It looks innocent, but since I am already suspicious of the "post restriction", it looks more suspicious in that light. Also of note is his 31 and 117. Since Dunn is only posting images, it seems like he was trying to push the wagon on PM, this doesn't really fit with Dunn being PM's scum partner, but I'm noting it nevertheless.

Literally says that Dunn's actions don't make sense as being scum partners with PM, and the only thing he finds suspicious is the posting style and it's contaminating his perspective on what he otherwise would consider "innocent".

I did not believe Dunnstral's posting in pictures bit day one, and I still don;t believe it. I stuck with my vote then and I might as well re apply it.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Nonsensical vote considering the above post, and shows no consideration of anything that has happened. Since the start of the game.

I did not believe Dunnstral's posting in pictures bit day one, and I still don;t believe it. I stuck with my vote then and I might as well re apply it.

VOTE: Dunnstral

What do you mean by you "don't believe it"?

Why do you ask?

I've said why since the start of the game.

this

I don't believe his "post restriction" plain and simple

is

Ok put it this way. I don't believe his tactic of posting solely via the use of images.

just

What do you mean by you don't believe his tactic? Are you saying that you don't believe he would do that as town?

I'm saying exactly what I said. Take it however you want it.

bad.

tl;dr: Post 171 is the only one that provides a potential scum motivation for Dunnstral's posting. Literally every time Gorny looks at Dunn's actions, he finds them not scummy. Then he votes him anyway. It makes no sense at all.

Gorny, I've bolded two questions in there that I'd really like you to answer please.
And a couple more:
Do you believe that scum!Dunn, after the lynch of his partner, would continue to only post in pictures?
Who is your next candidate for scum?

You deserve a vote for this reasoning. But I don't actually think you're scum. I think if you were scum, you would have joined the BTD6 wagon to save your partner. I think you're town and it's frustrating me.

[Keychain]

^why tho

Pedit:^^why tho

@Keychain:

Explain to me. Why would Mulch vote how he did as scum? Also, why do you think I'm doing great?

You mean the vote on PM?

I think there's a not insignificant chance that he replaced in and saw a buddy acting kind of scummy, and figured that he could go with that. Especially because the vote came after PM's 160, and I didn't really see a reason for it there and he didn't give one. That gives me the impression that he had information on PM's alignment that made him see it differently.

To be honest I'm pretty bloody wary of Mulch's scumplay, and so I'm seeing him through that lens. There's the possibility that he thought by bussing his partner he could throw heavy suspicion on chosen townies. But mostly his reiterating that he's possibly a chosen townie and then reacting like that to my vote give me terrible feelings.

You are doing great because your questioning of Gorny shows a focus on trying to get information that will help you evaluate who is town and who is scum.

Ok fine, I'll try not to be dickish and answer as best as I can.

Appreciated. I ask a lot of questions and it makes things hard for me when people don't answer.
I wanted you to go more into the thinking behind post 171, which you sort of did so thanks. I use scum! and town! to indicate what I think someone would do as either alignment, like I think that scum!Gorny would have switched to the BDT6 wagon at end of day. You didn't, so I don't think I'm dealing with scum!Gorny. I haven't played here long either.

What do you think about other players?

At the moment pressuring Dunnstral is probably the best idea. They refuse to do anything useful or even post text.

Can you explain why this doesn't also apply to the elusive Bulba?

Speaking of which

@Mod: Is Bulbazoor on V/LA? Or can he be prodded?

[Keychain]

...Okay then?

I can definitely still see a BTD6 lynch after those posts since daystart, plus the evidence of PM not switching his vote to save himself. I don't know how likely it is that both wagons Day 1 were on scum but I suppose it's possible. Need to think more about it.

Bulba is a distant third choice, pending his response to the prod (thank you Umlaut! ).

@Dunnstral:

Also why did you vote tman in 243?

I'd still like for a response to this, please.

[Keychain]

VOTE: BTD6_maker

I have a reason to back up this vote, but I'd rather wait for Dunnstral's response to 284 before I give it.

[Keychain]

Dunn! Actual words!

So my reasoning for the vote on BTD6:
We have a dayphase and a half of content, including flipped scum, but BTD6 is focusing on a pressure vote on lowhanging fruit instead of using that content to figure out and vote for someone they think is most likely scum.

Bulbazoor is slightly more likely to be Chosen, as I have explained. If they are Chosen, the second scum would very likely be on their RVS wagon (if they were off the wagon, they could have hammered). This leaves Dunnstral, SAJ, and tman2nd as likely scum. (This is weak at the moment, as we do not know whether Bulbazoor really is chosen).

There's also this analysis. They have

almost

made a move towards finding scum, except that it depends on something unknowable. They are leaning on the setup so hard in nearly every single one of their posts instead of looking at what players are doing.


@Dunn: Yes I see it but I disagree on the Gorny lynch. I think he would have switched his vote to BTD6 at end of day if he was partnered with PM. That said

Wow he talks.
Gering the pressure of two votes on you Dunn? Only two more on you and the town wind ź that is if you're scum like I think you are.

this is a bonkers response if his only reason for scumreading you is because he thinks you're avoiding having to respond by only posting images.
I still think BTD6 is more likely scum. Gorny's stance is explicable from confused town, BTD6's is less so.

You also never answered why you suspect tman and I'm still interested.

Alright listen up - the most likely person to be mafia here is Gorny and we should lynch them today. I don't know if you guys just don't see it but the way his opinion on me goes from me probably not being scum to thinking I'm scum for posting images is pretty disingenuous.

When did he ever say that you were probably not scum?

Yeah... don't make it

too

obvious that you didn't read 265, it might hurt my feelings.

[Keychain]

I would really, really prefer you didn't. I think we should lynch BTD6 today and Dunnstral is one of my top townreads.

Also why would you put those sentences next to each other?


PEdit: thought he was talking about hammering Dunn?

[Keychain]

@BTD6:
In post 76, Gorny finds that Dunn is looking less scummy based on his interactions. Post 201 has Gorny saying that Dunn's actions don't really fit with him being PM's scum partner. The only reason he's ever given for Dunn being scum is the posting style and every time he renews the push it is because of the images and nothing else. Every time he backs off it, it's because of the content.
You're right in that new developments don't erase the past, but Gorny seems to be taking any opportunity to push Dunn. He's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't, which is not a good way to scumhunt. (I have been burned by this before).

I'm not convinced that trying to determine Chosen townies is a good way to find scum - the problem I'm having with it is that we first have to figure out who we think is Chosen, then find scum from that without knowing if our first conclusion was correct or not. It's like trying to find partner associations before the flip.
But it sounds like you're proposing that any wagon PM was on is more likely to be Chosen on the basis that a D1 Chosen lynch is ideal for scum. In that vein, why would Dunnstral-as-scum have unvoted Bulba away from L-1 early on? And why do you think no one has been pushing Bulba today?

I would argue that refusing to consider posts as content if they don't contain words is kind of shooting yourself in the foot. You're deliberately not using information available to you.

How is Dunn a townread

I haven't tried putting together a proper towncase before! it feels like it might be confbias city.

Basically:
-the way he acted as a regulating force on the town at the start of the game by unvoting on speed wagons
-pointing out errors and inconsistencies (at least mine) without necessarily using that as an attempt to segue into a push
-pointing out things like Bulba replacing in and PM not saving himself, which iirc hadn't been noticed by the rest of the game.

Not to mention that if he was scum I think he would have started talking at the start of D2 after his partner was lynched, which is why I was looking for it. It would be incredibly difficult to push the Chosen lynch he needs to win by posting in images, without a partner to work with. It drew negative attention and stopping at daystart would have mostly avoided that.
I can't really imagine solo scum doing it - it feels far more like something a townie would do for fun until they realised they might get lynched for it.

[Keychain]

Umlaut, the way you manage to start each day on a new page will never fail to impress me!

VOTE: Keychain

Keychain was pushing for the lynch of BTD both days. On day 1 this was also to protect PM. She specifically wanted BTD over LUV over here:

Why LUV instead of BTD6, though? Their actions have been scummier in general - before they went on V/LA, all they contributed was theory spec. Then they left an RVS vote in place when they left.

The more I think about it, the more I get suspicious, ugh. Too much like someone just watching a town pull itself apart.
VOTE: BTD6_maker

She even tried to push on Mulch the other chosen townie, even when he had been very town with his vote on day 1.

I think she's had some good town reads of people, but that's because she knows everyone else is town. I still think she made good points on Dunnstral being town. It's just her reason for that argument was to get us to lynch a chosen townie over a normal one. I've had some paranoia over her town read of me, and now I think that's justified.

So tell me:
Why do you say you think I had good town reads when you were also paranoid of my town read on you?
Same question I asked Mulch - scum only need one Chosen townie lynched, so why would I have been pushing both? How does that make me more likely to be scum?

VOTE: BTD6_maker

Ok. You've convinced me. Dunnstral does seem town.

This is now L-1 on BTD.

I still think Dunn is scummy, but You've convinced me to look elsewhere. I'm willing to switch my vote to BTD but I'm not going to hammer without at least saying something about it.

I'm suspicious of both of the above last minute jumps on the BTD6 wagon with no reasons given. I've made it pretty clear I thought Dunn was town, so yes I'm going to go out of my way to avoid him getting lynched for stupid reasons and try and get my scumread lynched instead.

However I

don't

think I defended him to the point that two people would suddenly jump off of his wagon - I find it very likely that one of you was taking the opportunity to get the BTD6 lynch through with minimum responsibility. I make some bad pushes as town, but the bright side is that scum are easily caught jumping aboard.

Given the way Gorny opened with

Whelp that went well.

VOTE: Dunnstral

a vote on Dunnstral after hammering BTD6 because I "convinced him to look elsewhere", I think it may be him.

VOTE: Gorny

Hmmm.

That does make sense.

I'm going to reread over lunch, also going to look over Mulch's interactions with other people. At work now though, might not post again for another 10 hours or so.

UNVOTE: Dunnstral

Being convinced of anything and everything is not a town trait. If Gorny is scum, we are making his job very easy - all he has to do is weakly push Dunn and jump on whatever wagons town present to him.

[Keychain]

Oh god almighty you're back to it.
What are you saying about that VC, Dunnstral?
PEdit: beat me to it!

So tell me:
Why do you say you think I had good town reads when you were also paranoid of my town read on you?

Why is this a contradiction?

Same question I asked Mulch - scum only need one Chosen townie lynched, so why would I have been pushing both? How does that make me more likely to be scum?

On day 2, you initially pushed Mulch, but then there was an opportunity to switch to BTD when Mulch voted there.

It's not a contradiction. Maybe I should have asked it the other way around. Why were you paranoid of my townread on you when you think my townreads were good? I'm worried that you're just chucking that out now because paranoia is generally a town trait. Can you give me any evidence of that paranoia before this post?

And I have a tendency to tunnel. If Mulch was scum, and I was suspicious he was, I needed to push in that direction and test out different options before I locked onto BTD6. He completely overreacted to my vote which made me more sure about my suspicion. But since nobody else wanted to lynch him, I went back to BTD6.

If I was waiting for an opportunity to vote a Chosen townie, why didn't I wait for an opportunity to vote for Mulch? If you're trying to paint a picture of me being nervous scum unwilling to make the push on a Chosen townie on my own, there seems to be quite a lot to contradict that.

Plus, I think everyone else is town.

Why?

[Keychain]

Eh, maybe "nervous" isn't the right word there, but I think you get what I mean.

[Keychain]

It's why I questioned it in 268. Other than that I didn't really voice anything in that way.

(post tags corrected)

True, you did. Thanks for that. Your line of questioning on Gorny, which I think I was specifically referring to,

was

great and it's one of the reasons I still think Gorny is scum over you. I'll go back and read your relationship with the BTD6 wagon later though.

If I was waiting for an opportunity to vote a Chosen townie, why didn't I wait for an opportunity to vote for Mulch? If you're trying to paint a picture of me being nervous scum unwilling to make the push on a Chosen townie on my own, there seems to be quite a lot to contradict that.

That's not the picture I'm trying to paint. You weren't waiting for an opportunity. But, regardless of whether you are town or scum, you did take an opportunity when it appeared to vote BTD. As town, you're taking the opportunity to vote someone you suspect. As mafia, you're taking the opportunity to vote for a Chosen Townie. In any case, you taking or waiting for opportunities is not the point of my argument. It was more about how you were pushing for the lynches of Chosen Townies whether you started the wagon or not.

I think I misunderstood you then. But my vote on BTD6 was in response to their 284, not Mulch's vote. I thought I explained that clearly enough in 294.

I think you're looking in the wrong place - the fact that Chosen townies flip Chosen means that scum are going to be pretty leery about blatantly going after them, especially with only one scum left. That's why I'm looking at you two who jumped on at the end, tipping the lynch from Dunnstral to BTD6.


I'll look at 210 shortly.

[Keychain]

Dunnstral: You yourself gave good reasons in 318. The main one for me is how he didn't stop posting pictures when he was being pushed on it.

This isn't quite true though. Pretty sure he stopped when BTD6 pushed him? My point was that it looks like he stopped when it seemed like he was going to get lynched for it, instead of after PM got lynched.

Dunnstral... feel free to chip in any time. I'm hypothesising here.

[Keychain]

I've come around on Gorny. I think he's town. A couple reasons. He moved away from the Bulbazoor wagon onto Dunnstral which could doesn't mean too much because PM wasn't in much danger at the time, but he decided to stick on that vote which wasn't gaining any traction even after PM was in danger. Then today, he seemed a bit mixed up on the fact that LUV was killed last night. It could be an act, but It doesn't seem like it to me.

Okay. So. I disagree with your reasons to townread Gorny.

PM didn't save himself by moving his own vote. Gorny may have been expecting him to, and didn't want to add the layer of suspicion from putting himself on the Chosen lynch when PM could have done it with the excuse of self-preservation.

Secondly, he didn't seem confused about the NK, and I'm not sure why you think he was. He said in 205 he was aware that Mulch replaced Jin, but still listed them both in his analysis of who was likely to be PM's partner in 201, as well as LUV. He was including every player who had ever been in the game.

[Keychain]

...
Gorny, I think you're scum. I know it's in your best interest as scum to try and piggyback on tman's push. If you were town you would be trying to get your main scumread lynched. You know? Dunnstral? But no. You're going after me because you don't actually care who gets lynched, as long as it's not you.

So you have gone through my ISO to try and justify jumping on my wagon and have done it in such a transparently scummy way I'm kind of shocked. You have made some of the huuuuugest reaches I have ever seen in my life (particularly your point regarding my first post), you have pointed out seemingly random things that I've done as if they make me scum but without providing a reason for them coming from a scum mindset, and you've made some sarky comments that are in no way shape or form explaining why I am scum and are instead just assuming I am. Like this does not come from a townie explaining why they think someone is town. This is scum going through a townie ISO and trying to come up with reasons they're scum and just not doing that great a job at it.


And then you capped it off with the most convincing argument I've ever seen: "I'm not scum." Followed by

if you are scum, it doesn't matter who you think is scum over anyone else, a lynch of any one of us is what you need to stay afloat.

Like... dude.

You're describing yourself here.

I started responding point by point but thought I'd leave this here first. I'll get back to my longer response, maybe this evening but maybe tomorrow.


@tman: If you're paranoid of my townread on you, you should check out Gorny's. It appears to hinge on the fact that I voted you on page 2.

[Keychain]

Umlaut, the way you manage to start each day on a new page will never fail to impress me!

(also: I did a reverse image search on that picture Dunn hammered with, and I've been enjoying the heck out of the song for the last couple days)


I need to go to sleep. I'll be back in the morning. Please no voting yet.

[Keychain]

Yeah I don't think it's Bulba but if he is scum and wins based on some Day 1 distancing and then lurking out for three Days, I'm going to be quite annoyed.

I think you're more likely the scum here, and I should have lynched you D3 for twice last-minute jumping on the BTD6 wagon for no reason instead of getting distracted by Gorny, but I'm going to check through Bulba's slim ISO today just to make sure. Once I've done that, I'll make cases on you both to figure out who it is.


tman, why did you vote BTD6 in 319 - despite not finding them scummy in 308? I don't think you ever gave a reason that they

would

be scum, apart from PoE, and that's too easy for scum to fake for me to find it entirely trustworthy.

In addition, why did you not want PM lynched in 193 when you only had a "slight lean" on him being town in 105? Like you didn't seem to have a very good reason at all and it feels like you might have been trying to give PM the opportunity to save himself.

[Keychain]

Well, if Bulba's scum, he's won it. If he's town, it's all up to him now.

VOTE: tman2nd

Spoiler: Arguments for tman scum

Started off by following wagons and voted Bulba for putting PM at L-1. In 70 he says his vote also could have been on LUV and PM for the same reason instead of Bulba - but picking Bulba makes a lot of sense, since tman would have been pretty worried about someone nearly quickhammering his partner. Plus LUV was V/LA, and he possibly didn't want to pressure his partner.

His first evaluation of PM was in 95, and he thought PM seemed "kind of town", which he then retreated from in 105. It seems like he couldn't justify it. These are the only times he really mentions PM in any meaningful way.

In 193, he does something incredibly scummy - despite having just a town lean on PM he is willing to jump on the wagon on BTD6 (who turned out to be a Chosen townie) for no real reason at all apart from not wanting PM to be lynched. The only times he mentioned BTD6 during the day he avoided committing to a read, presumably while he worked out which Chosen townie would be easiest to lynch.

Then the next day he kicks off by saying that BTD6 and Mulch - both Chosen townies - are unlikely to be scum, and defended BTD6 from Gorny. But in 297 he inexplicably backpedals and decides BTD6 is an option.

In 308 he votes Dunnstral despite not finding him scummy...

...yet in 317 he switches to BTD6, a Chosen townie that he also didn't think was scummy, because he found my argument "convincing". No reason why he thought BTD6 was scum. Just hopped on the wagon for the second time.

tl;dr: tman made no comment on PMysterious apart from a weak townread he was scared to commit to and suddenly not wanting him lynched. He kept his options open on BTD6 and jumped on the wagon twice at the last minute for no given reason, despite saying he didn't find them scummy on Day 2.

@tman: That's my case on you from previous Days. Now I'll get to what you've said since daystart.

I played my first scumgame recently and having trouble coming up with scumreads was a problem I had. This

I didn't have any scumreads at the time. (Except some small doubts about you but at the time I overall considered you to be town.) So, yeah it was POE.

reminds me of that, despite how you're trying to fit it into a townie mindset.

Even more impressive is how you've somehow managed to retcon a scumread on me. You say you've been suspicious of me for a while, but I don't see any evidence of that. You're fabricating excuses for me to be scum and pretending you held them before now to try and give them weight, because you actually stated a

townread

on me. In 214. No sign of suspicion. If you were using process of elimination, eliminating me makes no sense if you suspected me, which makes me think you're making it up now.

Part of the reason I had some unvoiced suspicions of you day 2 despite my overall townread was your townread of me. The stuff you mention about my day 1 stuff around PM does look bad. During night 1 and the start of day 2, I was thinking someone would suspect me for it. Your townread of me made me wonder if you were mafia who knew I was town. Or if you were just reading me well as town.

Yes. Your actions were scummy, and I should have picked it up earlier.
But you've covered it with a pretty convincing veneer of questions that made you look like you were trying to gamesolve, which is why you haven't been lynched yet even though I considered it Day 3. I explained why I decided on Gorny instead.

[Keychain]

And BTD has not contributed well. I agree with Keychain's case on them.

It wasn't only that I didn't want to lynch PM. I also agreed at the time that BTD was scummy. At the last few hours of the day there, there were basically two options, BTD and PM. BTD looked scummier.

To this point in particular - PM had not contributed well. Bulba had not contributed well. Your reasoning for voting BTD6 was pretty bad, and I've definitely had scum jump on my misguided pushes on townies before.

In general, you've been well reasoned which is why I've wanted to townread you, but now I think you are just good at that, and since you are mafia, you know who all the townspeople are and so you've been able to notice things well which make people town, and so the townreads have been "genuine".

Townies do not always act town, or at least not in ways which can be articulated and argued well enough for people to believe you. If you think my townreads have been well reasoned because they're genuine, why have you also apparently been seeing my scumreads as such? This is not a good argument for me being scum.

[Keychain]

*her

Fixed - Um

gg town! Thank you so much for modding Umlaut, this setup was super fun to play as scum!

[Keychain]

*her

Fixed - Um

Thank you <3


tman, in the end I was just trying to get you lynched, it looked like you were trying to convince

me

you weren't scum. Well played though!

[Keychain]

Yeah, I was worried about that townread of his - he was kind of a wildcard and I would have preferred someone a bit more predictable. But it was either Dunn or Bulba for the nightkill and I thought Dunn might not hold his suspicion on you if he made it to LyLo.

You did play well, very clearheaded, but you made yourself a bit of an easy target by kind of letting me talk you into voting a Chosen townie, twice.

I wasn't deliberately trying to pocket you, but I guess that's what happened. You did seem genuinely town to me until I actively started looking for ways to get you lynched.

Really enjoyed playing with you! I didn't have much hope for winning when I made that desperate attempt to save PM on the first day

[Keychain]

PM! <3 You've become a mythical figure to me. I didn't even know if you were still hanging around, I just hoped you were.

It's all right. I would have been happy with this game even if we'd lost it. It would have been nice to have kept you alive, but ah well. Don't worry about it! It even worked in our favour a little bit.

Good game.

Well played KC!

Thanks LUV

Good guess in the dead thread, by the way. Before the Chosen flips even.

[Keychain]

I saw that! Took the secret to the grave and beyond.

Oh yeah, I should have mentioned earlier - I was glad to get you as a scum partner, you seemed easygoing enough to not hold it against me if I messed it up, I was actually so nervous when I got my role PM

well played everyone! this game was a lot of fun to keep up with! dunn i especially liked your playstyle with the images, it really made the game feel distinct.

Hi!
I agree - Dunnstral was amazing. Especially how he had a couple of pictures as staples and had a few he only used once. It was very well done.