Micro 741: Reverse Mafia (mafia win)

[CheekyTeeky]

Hi everyone I'm catching up now. Who do I need to pay particular attention to?

[CheekyTeeky]

Ok finished a fast read through, now I see why noone responded to me lol. Was hoping to make a read on the responses. Ouch @ lynch 1, that flip makes me more nervous about obv. town reads. Glad lilly was next as her slot was iffy at best. Atm I feel confident that only CFJ is town ^^ - do not mistake this for my full catch up. I'm putting you all in ISO next and will break down my reads in more detail, just letting you know I've read everything to date. Stay posted.

[CheekyTeeky]

Also UNVOTE:

[CheekyTeeky]

Hey guys this is where I'm at so far from ISOs

CFJ
MM4
CD - Need more
ASP - Need more

Still have to look at Serra and dunkers. Why aren't we lynching CFJ if he's town? I would like to lynch MM4 because I'm pretty confident they're town, but if they have been very clever scum then they deserve the win. I could see amazing scum play, but I'm not feeling that here. Would like to narrow down the pool with MM4 lynch.

[CheekyTeeky]

Serra can you please explain your read progression on my slot?

[CheekyTeeky]

I have an alt, this is my primary.

[CheekyTeeky]

Is that an alt with more experience than this acc?

I found your slot broadly scummy throughout D1, but have been leaning towards town lately.

No. This is my first game outside the newbie queue lol. OK I'll take that into consideration.

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

But I just got here :/ can we vote MM4? Also, why?

[CheekyTeeky]

Cool VOTE: MarioMadness4

[CheekyTeeky]

Sure I'll copy paste my read from my comp gimme a sec.

[CheekyTeeky]

MarioManiac4

Spoiler:

11 – Announces that his strategy will be townhunting which makes sense in this set-up. Although town hunting would be easier for scum than for town. He also says he would like to lynch the towniest players in order.
60 - ++town points for picking up on GL’s bussing/distancing comment. MM4 is almost conf. town for that plus not being on GL’s wagon, but it makes me a little worried. Could scum have pre-planned this dialogue?
62, 65 – makes me feel a little better that the GL/MM4 push is not a set-up. Tone feels natural and not over-thought. Feels like he’s sorting GL and CFJ at the same time.
79 – votes CFJ which I assume is based on the sorting I saw earlier. I don’t like that he’s not clear about his reasons to help others sort him too.
94 – unvotes CFJ after CFJ pushes on ASP? No reason given?
95 – Pretty weak defense when asked to justify his unexplained vote on CFJ.
98, 100, 102 – quotes lilly saying she thinks thebrie is probtown asking why? I like the push in 100, that feels really town trying to get lilly to justify her reads even if it is hypocritical. Says he finds Brie non-committal but then admits he is too but says he can’t town read that? Not sure how he expect to get town read when he compares his behaviour to someone who he says is null.
110 – good pick up on lily’s inconsistent read progression on Brie, but doesn’t do much to try to sort Brie for himself. I’m really incredulous at his vote on Dunker here based on the reasoning being terrible. Says he could also vote CD, haven’t had a look at CD yet so I can’t really link this to anything just yet.
123, 157 – Says she’s definitely not voting GL which is ++TP in retrospect. I don’t think scum buddies would be this brazen about each other if it were a set-up. The distancing has already happened so there was no need to continue it here if that was the case. Votes lilly again without explanation. I’m assuming MM4 just has great gut reads.
197 – I didn’t understand the comparison here between lilly and Dunker. 200 – confirms she still wans to lynch lilly, but explains she finds lilly’s posting better than Dunker’s posting.
221 – Votes ASP? I don’t know what is going on in her mind at this point. I guess she got freaked out by the obv. town lynch too and went for someone who was blasé scummy? Seems like a bit of a knee jerk reaction + I told you so on GL. Again her reads aren’t ever explained which is quite frustrating. I would be more than confident she was town if there was some transparency to the thought process.
223 – Comes to the conclusion that Dunker and TheBrie go to lylo, again no reason why. I have a feeling she is going with the consensus if no-one is picking up on her reads feeling thrown out rather than thought about. Pings me that she says ASP?? Or herself should be lynched today. If her gut has been right so far, wouldn’t it be better for her to stick around for town to progress, is she feeling confident that her reads are that good and town will listen when she’s gone? I also feel like scum would feel very comfortable if they weren’t on the GL wagon, like hey I’m obv. town get me out of here. I do still think she is town at this point I just don’t like how it feels her urgency to get out is a little scummy, particularly given the game environment at the time. No idea what she sees in ASP that I don’t.
225 – agrees active townish players should stick around. I think town would come from that stance. Although it doesn’t really mesh with her “lynch the towniest players first” philosophy.
243 – Town reasoning about lylo, I don’t think the brie comment was fair, there is plenty of reason to believe MM4 is agreeing with the prevailing thought on her reads other than GL who was the only person I really think she sorted from the start along with CFJ very briefly. Again if she had been more transparent with more obvious read progression then yes people wouldn’t be able to assume she is just going with the crowd on her other reads. I guess I’m just bias knowing that she is wrong about my slot so this really irks me. If you’re going to throw shade on someone at least come up with a proper reason. In my mind she’s gone from null reading my slot to throwing it into the never lynch category because she’s cruising along with serra’s reads. I wouldn’t be able to think that if she had given substance to her own progression...
268 – Says ASP/GL isn’t scum…why not? 274 – Says GL was pushing on asp when there wasn’t much need to. I had a look and I see GL is pushing on a few people not just ASP, he was REALLY pushing on MM4. He also pushed on my slot for being awkward lol. I don’t know I’m feeling a stubborn feeling that she’s town because thinking otherwise is too much of a stretch, and if she is scum then they deserve the win because I would be very impressed.
277 – Self votes, wants to get out. I’m going to say NAI, but I want to say this is more scummy than its not. Also unsure how she got the impression that everyone is town reading her. Probably confident from being right about the first lynch.
280 – Says she just got a bad feeling about Serra, who I’m pretty convinced she’s based my slot’s read off. I also have bad feelings about Serra but I haven’t ISO’d him at this point to work it out.
282 – Eagerness again to get flips though. Game feels stagnant so fair enough.
300 – I think she’s worked out her townreads via PoE as I still don’t understand her town reads. I know she thinks Dunker and Brie are scum so maybe everyone else is town just coz? Given her gut I would believe her if I didn’t know any better. If Dunkers turns out to be super scummy where doubt = 0 then I’m happy to be at lylo with him. Still haven’t looked at him yet.
302 – Asks for more votes on herself, groups ASP to herself. 319 – says she has completely sorted the game, sticks with her original bottom two scum reads. Doesn’t help town with any info apart from she’s had a look and her opinion stands. 343 – happy to see lilly is town.
348 – Appealing to others to follow her unexplained Dunker/TheBrie read. 350 says she would be more comfortable lynching Brie than Dunkers.
355 – Naked votes serra…she said less than 80 posts ago that she was worried about him and I haven’t seen her try to reconcile that in the past few posts.
381 – reiterates Dunkers and Brie are staying as the last two and I still don’t understand her read on either of them lol.

TL;DR
Overall, I think MM4 has had some really great gut reads this game, I can see that she is an instinctual player who doesn’t really provide reasoning for her votes, so her decisions can be easily misinterpreted. I really like that she wasn’t on the GL wagon and the push on GL at the beginning of the game, but I find it hard to see how she was sorting after that, it’s clear that she doesn’t explain her process, which is a shame because if she combined her gut with some reason Town would have a lot more to work with, and it might be less frustrating for her also. I believe she is genuine, and has town’s interest at heart in her actions, I don’t know if reads on anyone except GL, lilly, CFJ and ASP were hers or if they came from the consensus when her vote jumped around a bit. I still don’t understand where her certainty about the reads on dunker and I are coming from, so I would like that explained a bit better if she doesn’t mind sharing her process on that. If she is scum she deserves the win. Town read.

[CheekyTeeky]

I figured out about halfway through her ISO that MM4 is a she, so apologies if I started off with "he" in there.

[CheekyTeeky]

One thing that's bothering me a bit is that the PBPA behind the spoiler looks more like an argument for MM4 as scum than as town. I mostly agree with you, though, in that although much of what MM4 does is vaguely scummy, there's also the occasional moment of supreme towniness.

Lol I'm terrible at townhunting I find everyone scummy, it's just a case of lesser evils this game. I think although I found her actions in isolation scummy, when we take the reverse set-up into consideration, plus her reads on GL and lilly, overall it makes sense as town.

[CheekyTeeky]

I have expanded thoughts on ASP too.

[CheekyTeeky]

ASP/not_mafia

Spoiler:

8 – Not a very strong entrance IMO, feels like he is setting up/overtly feigning inattention from the beginning. Not sure if this is AI, as I’ve never played with ASP before e.g. which alignment is he usually more attentive as? I feel like this is more likely to come from town in this situation, given the current pressure to be as town as possible.
74 – shows insight into ASP actively scum hunting when he picks up on a possible scum slip. I also like that he gave the alternative explanation of “or didn’t read slip.” I think scum would push this harder without an out to take the pressure of themselves. I also note CFJ’s comment in response that this slot could be scum delurking, but I don’t think so based on the fact he didn’t push this harder. I dislike that CFJ pushed this as otherwise, it feels unrealistically opportunistic.
90 – Rebuttal to CFJ, feels natural/right tone. Then briefly outlines the activity from page 1-4, mentions that he would take GL’s reads list (82) and flip it + put Mario lower down, so we deduce that he’s thinking this:

{asp}
{brie, carcalilly}
{Mario, cd}
{cfj}
{dunker}

The problem is that he hasn’t really provided reasons for anyone being where they are. But using the post we can assume that dunker is at the bottom because of his mentioned scum slip, and that cfj is second last, since he liked GL’s push on him in 39. I get the impression that he townreads GL here also, although it’s not clear where GL would fit into the list, maybe top or second top tier? This is frustrating because I want to town read ASP but not helping town at all with his reads, and siding with GL (who scum read ASP) who flipped scum, looks pretty bad. In his defense his tone is subtly sarcastic, frustrated maybe lost? Which I think is much more likely to come from town, bar the last line which is scumfuck as. Why discredit your own post and at the same time imply that everyone in the game sounds fake without anything of substance added? Very odd behaviour at best, which is putting this slot back to null-town at this point.
93 – We see that CFJ has pushed ASP in 92 regarding the scumfuck comment ++town points for CFJ. I don’t like ASP’s reaction in response to CFJ. “What is this a newbie game?” doesn’t sit well with me, particularly after CFJ has already outlined how town behaving town, helps town in this set-up. He says he’s usually terrible D1, but we know these aren’t normal game mechanics, and he’s not going to be lynched anytime soon with his current behaviour. Since there are no NK’s I’d expect ASP to contribute a lot more content after lynch flips to get him looking town again. Then he gives an excuse for what is starting to look like active lurking “I tend to sit back and watch things unfold” – I’m down to null-scum at this point. Flippantly defending reasons to be anti-town in this set-up helps scum.
122 – doesn’t help him much more. The fact that he said even his own post looks fabricated and then imposed that perception on others seems like a deflection from his own slip-up.
161, 173 – Prodge
Almost 200 posts later we get a replacement:
367 – Not_Mafia enters and self-votes -_-‘ - provides nothing on anything. 370 – In response to “Did you roll mafia” he says “Yup”; if we had two shots to lynch scum still I would say lynch this slot today because if they’re town this is bs and they're only making this game harder regardless of alignment.

TL;DR
In summary, I think the behaviour overall is scummy. I feel like ASP tried to set-up acceptance of active-lurking and mediocre dodgy posts early on to make his job easier as scum later on. The way he flipped GL’s reads instead of creating and explaining his own reads, seems lazy/unhelpful and like subtly distancing himself from GL. It also pings me that he pushed CFJ as a scum lean (although honestly I had doubts at the beginning of his ISO too), it might be a stretch to say this could be possible discrediting of CFJ’s pro-town behaviour? Overall his tone has felt natural and why would someone act outright scummy in this set-up? Those are the only things I can really give him as town at this point. It’s hard to know if any of this is AI as I haven’t played with him before. I don’t like how he hasn’t contributed after two lynch flips; after virtually promising to be more helpful down the line, that feels to me like he’s knows he messed up and has lost interest. Not_Mafia, unfortunately, has a bit of ground to make up if they are town, definitely need more from this slot. Scum lean.

[CheekyTeeky]

I think 417 confirmed my read on MM4 and others. I mostly agree with the reads list, but now I'm a little worried:

Like, ASP hasn't done much of anything, sure. I don't think that's actually scum-indicative at all, though. I've played with ASP before, and I can testify that he is always like this.

I would really like if Not_Mafia could give a reads list and maybe his thoughts on strat at this point?

I'm confused about whether you guys are voting the towniest players or players who seem town enough to narrow the pool? If we're voting obv. town then I think CFJ or MM4 is a good start. I think I asked why we weren't voting CFJ already. Do we leave all the iffys together and hope they get it right? I'm scared if Serra is scum lol, he'd be too persuasive. Maybe we start with Serra lynch?

[CheekyTeeky]

we should start lynching, it removes "this guy could be scum" from our minds and
at this point i'm fine losing to serra or mm4 so we can lynch them
that leaves cfj me cheeky and not mafia

Is there a reason you're not voting MM4 here? She can hammer herself for the lynch since you say you're fine with it.

I think this is the unofficial VC atm:

MM4 - CT, CFJ
Serra - Dunker
Cheeky - NM

Not voting - Serra

[CheekyTeeky]

EBWOP not voting is Serra and MM4

[CheekyTeeky]

Eek I'll be super embarrassed if I'm wrong lol.

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh I missed the MM4 vote, last count said noone was voting. Dunkers not jumping makes more sense now.

[CheekyTeeky]

Boom! CFJ or Serra now?

[CheekyTeeky]

i'm sorry if i'm sounding scummy defending myself here, but i really do think this game gets so much easier if i can convince you guys i'm town

i was the main townread of guiltylion d1. if you were scum, would you really hardpush your partner d1? honestly, he was probably pushing me that hard to frame me if he got flipped that day. His push isn't SvS, and i hope you guys don't think it is

What do you guys think about this? Is this a valid point or is this the kind of WIFOM tactic people can see coming from GL and buddy? If it's the latter then surely scumdunkers would have pushed this point earlier?

I'm looking forward to NM's read on serra because I'm feeling pretty null townish on that slot pretty close to just ?!?!...also content will help sort NM. I'm willing to sheep CFJ and MM4's opinion on serra though. After NM posts I think we all put out our preferred lynch order and discuss.

[CheekyTeeky]

Not_Mafia are you still there? We're waiting for the masterpiece you promised us in 439. :/

Pedit timing...

[CheekyTeeky]

-_-' ok so should we get serra cleared now? I don't think we're going to get what we expected from NM.

[CheekyTeeky]

Cool Serra is conf. town so I'm 100% sure there is scum in dunkers/NM and we win

[CheekyTeeky]

@CheekyTeeky: How do you assess the probability of Dunker as scum, relative to the probability of NM as scum?

How indeed. It is hard to assess the probability of someone being scum relative to someone I had a slight scum lean on and who is now either too busy to participate properly or doesn't care enough to help us town read him. In particular Dunkers last few comments feel kinda like townie objectivity, where if he was scum I'd expect him to refute any evidence that I might be town. In a way he did that but he also agreed with one point that likely shows I am indeed town. When I get to my pc I can point out specific points to support/refute a scumdunkers possibility. In short atm NM < dunkers town and honestly I don't see that changing.

[CheekyTeeky]

OK I had a quick re-look and I think it is certainly possible that Dunkers is scum. Overall his ISO is very strange, he is confused about the set-up and the playstyle implications of it for too long, not to mention the scum-slip in 72 he hard townreads GL, CFJ and Serra together and even suggests leaving these 3 until the end, which makes me think that if he is the buddy, then it would make sense for Dunkers to be lynched first and hopefully GL later down the line who he's pushing as obv. town. The GL flip is enough for him to reconsider his CFJ read but not his Serra read. It then looks like town tunneling on Serra who is also suspicious of CFJ and my slot. It would make a lot of sense for scum to tunnel someone who pushes good targets later on. What bothers me is that he doesn't give any reasons at all for his reads, although we've seen that town does do that (MM4), and again that just makes things harder for town and easier for scum. He sheep's Serra's read on my slot which looks like nothing more than a gut read on someone too busy to be engaged in the game properly. He agrees to leave my slot to the bottom two and then starts some weird pleading to be lynched so that "town can win" with still several people left. He also prods serra to see if his suspicion for CFJ still exists and still pushes on me being scum with nothing to really go on. I really don't have enough to compare NM to Dunkers. Because Dunker's actions most of the game would make sense from scum I am inclined to change my mind and say he is scummier still than NM's no contribution.

[CheekyTeeky]

If we're ready to start lynching I can? Otherwise you can L1 test me, it depends if you guys need more time.

[CheekyTeeky]

I have one game as scum on D12, the problem with comparing them is that most of the game takes place in PM. Here are links to the games:

Town: https://dominating12.com/forums/5/off-t ... post-45244
Town: https://dominating12.com/forums/5/off-t ... post-45829
Scum: https://dominating12.com/forums/5/off-t ... post-46764

Yeah we're all terrible lol.

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah lol I love GoT and was super excite to be the dragon queen but because the whole faction's survival depended on me staying alive I had to stay as low key as possible. The games on the forum are all based around power roles and the ability to write fake role PMs or fake entire PM convos with others/the mod. The rules are very different and we all know the players from risk games. I'm modding my first game there after the current and I don't know how convertable the set-ups here will be to work over there. I have to say I loved the mislead set-up that CFJ ran, super cool flavour, but I think that's too complex for where our D12 group are at atm.

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky GL

[CheekyTeeky]

Very, I started off thinking he was LAMIST but after I had a look at the previous game he provided it was obvious that he's always an obv. town player, granted I haven't seen a scum game. Also him being the creator of this game reinforces why he cared so much for himself and others to be town. And last, because there is only one scum left GG.

[CheekyTeeky]

Aw thanks guys I was trying to hide my panic coming in already scum read. Took a lot of wiggling lol. Many thanks to the mods <3 very fun game and yeah Not_Mafia was the 3rd scum buddy lol.

[CheekyTeeky]

Noted, I really appreciate the feedback CFJ, and the weaknesses you pointed out. I was amazed how you read into my scum play perfectly but still thought I was town. I think being new really helped you guys to underestimate me, and I know l wouldn't have gotten away with it otherwise. Thanks again I hope to be flawless in my next scum game.