Micro 741: Reverse Mafia (mafia win)

[MarioManiac4]

[MarioManiac4]

/confirm

[MarioManiac4]

strategy for me in this game will probably be just townhunting

lynching nulltowns is good until you run into the situation where mafia are nulltown- i'd prefer to just lynch the towniest players in order

town won micro 604 but in that game ozymandias fit into the category you're describing- town won because snarkysnowman made himself fairly obvious with his l-1 on ozzy

[MarioManiac4]

I don't think there was anything alignment indicative in your post. Strategy talk works until we get more information to build on.

[MarioManiac4]

most scum don't usually plan that far in advance IMO

why do you think this?

[MarioManiac4]

that isn't what's happening- anything happening this early is not a commitment. it could be distancing. i don't particularly lean any way on cd/cfj. it's possible they're scumbuddies, but nothing makes it likely.
the point of asking was to figure out your alignment, because saying that most scum "don't plan that far in advance" when it comes to just pushing a partner early for possible towncred later is pretty hard for me to get my head around. bussing and distancing is very widespread on this site. and this isn't even bussing.

[MarioManiac4]

No, he can basically attack and do whatever. It's not impossible.
And no, I did answer the question. I am not ruling out that team. And I still don't understand the thing you're pushing. It was page two. Cd can do whatever with the read. He isn't "obligated" to do anything.

[MarioManiac4]

nothing is impossible in mafia, what's the point of talking about things or trying to make guesses if that's your standard?

I meant more along the lines of it's not unlikely? It was bad wording. But the point of the post stands; anything done now is so easily taken back I see no reason scum would ever avoid any of that, and I don't see why you think otherwise.

@callforjudgement; Weak reads are fine. But when the basis looks null, I reserve the right to question your thought process on the read.

[MarioManiac4]

I meant more along the lines of it's not unlikely? It was bad wording. But the point of the post stands; anything done now is so easily taken back I see no reason scum would ever avoid any of that, and I don't see why you think otherwise.

except I just explained why it's unlikely? It's not easy to just "take back" things you post. You're saying if cd changed his mind and voted cfj now you wouldn't be surprised at that? when do we cross the line from "easy to take back" to "not easy to take back"?

it's absolutely easy. like, reads are extremely fluid as town. i can form a read on page 2 and by page 6 i can forget it ever existed because it's all just reachy stuff. i would be more suspicious if cd just tunneled cfj for the rest of d1, and didn't take into account new stuff that's coming in.

also like, saying cd/cfj probably aren't buddies is perhaps the safest, most generic and easy read one could give so far this game. I didn't really expect that much attention to be paid to my throwaway comment and Mario picking at it doesn't sit right

that's not really what you said though; you said that scumbuddies didn't think far ahead enough to bus. this is quite evidently not true; bussing is incredibly widespread on this site.

i'm going to try more to find town instead of scum now i think.

[MarioManiac4]

VOTE: callforjudgement

i think this feels best for now.

[MarioManiac4]

The fact that you're pushing me for making a post that needed to be made, and not spewing bullshit that I would've had to fake to make seem realistic is some crap? Like, here are my thoughts on the full game so far:

…

Even my serious post sounds fake-- to me, the player who wrote it-- so why would I bother forcing something that I actually don't believe?

So in other words, you basically have no reads, and don't want to have try to fabricate reads to make it seem like you're participating?
The latter half of this (not wanting to fabricate information) makes sense as town, but the former half (not having reads) doesn't so much. It's hard to have a strong read this early, but things have certainly happened that can be reacted to. (It wasn't just me; plenty of people read you as scum for your post.) Besides, even if you don't have enough information to read someone, you can ask them questions in order to gain more information, rather than just waiting and hoping it'll appear from somewhere.

There are several possible town reactions to a low-information game, and different people react in different ways. Not having reads and not attempting to gain them, though, is one of the least town reactions a player can have in the situation (likely only behind producing reads that are obviously fabricated).

UNVOTE:

[MarioManiac4]

i'm going to try more to find town instead of scum now i think.

VOTE: callforjudgement

i think this feels best for now.

Why is there only a 1-minute-gap between those 2?

Because I was only skimming isos to remember content i had already read.

[MarioManiac4]

VOTE: thebrie is probtown

can we just quicklynch thebrie theyre so obvtown

[MarioManiac4]

no i'm definitely confused with everything about your play this game
why is asp scum, why is thebrie town, why has your opinion shifted so much when thebrie didnt post between 89 and 97

[MarioManiac4]

Kinda null. She seems to be fairly noncommittal so far but I can't say I've been too different this game. But I'm having trouble seeing how you'd townread it.

[MarioManiac4]

out of everyone she seems the least scummy
Or the least faked I'm so tryhard town

okay, but that doesn't reconcile with

can we just quicklynch thebrie theyre so obvtown

really.

VOTE: Dunkerdoodles

i don't feel like scum would be this ignorant of game mechanics for so long

i could also vote cd

[MarioManiac4]

Mario are we done talking about the cd/cfj thing or what? Are you going to respond to my 81?

i don't really feel the need to; i've determined that i'm not going to vote you.

[MarioManiac4]

@cfj; I answered GL's questions for a while but it's not getting anywhere productive. Neither of us are going to vote each other, so there's no real point in continuing. I unvoted in 94 because after the post I quoted I wasn't comfortable voting you, because I just didn't really like it in ways I can't really articulate. ASP was an easy target there and even after he gave his notes on the situation you continued to attack him with the same justification and the post is just meh in general.

I kinda wanna
VOTE: Carcalilly

[MarioManiac4]

i recently started to worry dunkerdoodles' content was too mechanic-centred
carcalilly's 176 is similar-ish to all that posting but isn't really towncred-generating

[MarioManiac4]

no i still want to lynch you i'm just saying why i think your posting =/= dunker's posting

[MarioManiac4]

VOTE: A Simple Plan

Why did that gl lynch happen that was a bad idea

[MarioManiac4]

Dunkerdoodles and TheBrie should go to Lylo. The third is probably carca or cfj but I could be convinced on serra.

ASP or myself is the correct lynch today imo.

[MarioManiac4]

We have confirmed town then. Also waiting for every player and then the mod to come online x times doesn't appeal to me

But we should have lots of influence from townish players, sure.

[MarioManiac4]

in lylo we have confirmed town because in order to get there we have to lynch town

brie's comment on me "agreeing with the prevailing thought" makes no sense and i don't want to lynch her ever

i have played with gl recently in newbie 1787 and 1791; i was scum in both games and he was town in both games. he was relatively unlike here in both.

gl tried to subtly turn me from carca to dunkerdoodles which makes me want to lynch carca somewhat (d3 or later probably) and i think leaving {thebrie, dunkerdoodles} alive until the end of the game will probably secure a town victory.

[MarioManiac4]

ASP/GL isn't scum/scum and I highly recommend lynching there. It's not like ASP is going to be mass-producing content later.

[MarioManiac4]

gl was pushing on asp when there wasn't much reason he needed to.

does anyone actually want to leave asp to the end to any extent because i'm pretty sure the answer is no
and i certainly don't want to lynch any active players because that would make the game drown in inactivity
let's lynch him now and see where this goes

[MarioManiac4]

VOTE: MarioManiac4

this is unanimous i think, so let's get me out of here

[MarioManiac4]

A Simple Plan
Carcalilly
callforjudgement
serrapaladin
Dunkerdoodles
TheBrie

[MarioManiac4]

Hm, I thought that that rule didn't apply to this game because I vaguely remembered discussion on that but it does follow the wiki mechanics.
UNVOTE:

Serra I just get a really bad feeling about, like he's fake somehow. I wouldn't leave him to the end myself but I'd be alright with it.

[MarioManiac4]

we can't win the game without lynching people though so let's do it
we could run people to l1 but assuming they're town has the same effect i guess. the game has stagnated, let's get some flips on the table.

[MarioManiac4]

@cfj; I answered GL's questions for a while but it's not getting anywhere productive. Neither of us are going to vote each other, so there's no real point in continuing. I unvoted in 94 because after the post I quoted I wasn't comfortable voting you, because I just didn't really like it in ways I can't really articulate. ASP was an easy target there and even after he gave his notes on the situation you continued to attack him with the same justification and the post is just meh in general.

I kinda wanna
VOTE: Carcalilly

actually kinda like this vote after the serra back and forth

Mario who are you scumreading (besides me, assuming that's what you mean by "i'm not voting you")

actually wait a second, weren't you voting dunker before? did your read on him change?

I was voting dunkerdoodles and not cfj earlier, hence the VC confusion. my vote still isn't on dunker for some reason so I'm gonna

VOTE: dunkerdoodles
again

still think he's town

I think Carcalilly is town and leaving Dunkers and Brie alive will win the game for town.

[MarioManiac4]

mod just because asp and i are both town doesnt mean we're the same person

more mm4 votes please

Your mod is apologetic. Very busy mod.

[MarioManiac4]

i have completely sorted the game; i am not realistically going to support leaving someone who is not dunkerdoodles or thebrie alive in the stead of dunkerdoodles or thebrie

i would lynch anyone outside those two i just want to kill people pls

VOTE: Carcalilly

see now you get

options

(also carca please read the setup)

[MarioManiac4]

glad to see project chainlynch is going well

[MarioManiac4]

If you disagree with leaving Dunkerdoodles and TheBrie alive and you are not Dunkerdoodles/TheBrie objecting to your own inclusion, please speak up now.

[MarioManiac4]

That post was trash but I would certainly be more comfortable lynching Brie than Dunkerdoodles.

[MarioManiac4]

VOTE: serrapaladin

[MarioManiac4]

I am due to be prodded but in the absence of a brilliant case that outlines things I am not seeing my opinion is not going to change from Dunkerdoodles -> Cheeky -> everyone else.

[MarioManiac4]

i honestly have already made up my mind.

[MarioManiac4]

Rereading the game I think that cfj is kinda obvtown and should never be lynched 100% if that means anything.

[MarioManiac4]

I think NM is town, still. Nobody seems to agree on this but I still kinda think the interactions with GL were towny.
Like, ASP hasn't done much of anything, sure. I don't think that's actually scum-indicative at all, though. I've played with ASP before, and I can testify that he is always like this. I once hydraed with him for two large theme games- he had around six posts overall between them.
90 rings genuine to me, too. Like when I have a townread it's not usually got through looking at a post and thinking "Oh yeah scum wouldn't write this post for X logical reasons." but more like "This post seems like something someone would actually write and it doesn't look like an act really." This post is like that. The best I can do is say that it's got a towny sort of frustration to it? Like it's really, really indignant and it shows that he is legitimately reading the thread but doesn't see anything in it. In a lot of ways though his lurky behaviour made him an easy target and I see GL's push as "oh hey this is a relatively scummy and uncontroversial scumread let's use it" more than "I am going to put my buddy here for reasons yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!"
Maybe NM is actually just scum. I don't know. But this behaviour isn't unusual for him, either.

I said I was getting a fake vibe from serra's posts and that was true. There's not really anything I can point to in his posts and say "scum wouldn't write this" but I also don't see any red signals, more just uncontroversial posting that looked like it was trying to be average on my first read but I'm not really thinking that anymore. 150, 153 and 156 I kinda like. Another reason I want to lynch serra now is his resistance to the GL lynch? Like he never pushed forward a GL lynch but didn't generate any towncred there either which I think makes him more likely town. (Although honestly I didn't really remember most of this reasoning why I think serra is town now when I was voting- mostly it was kinda the first point and the fact that his recent posting just felt kinda town to me.

Brie is kinda a weird read. She was consistently pro-GL all game, and I still don't really like her saying that I'm "agreeing with the prevailing thought" as a case on me. Like Cheeky says that there's plenty of reason to believe that I'm going on with the prevailing thought, but like I don't see any evidence for that? My read on ASP wasn't popular, nor was my read on GL. The only "thought" that had been given on that day was that of one player- hardly any sort of prevailing thought. I'm starting to doubt if Brie would actually not care about her partner's situation to the extent that she forgot about someone scumreading him, though. Cheeky's analysis feels kinda genuine. Like, does scum go through my ISO and say "she is scummy here, and towny there, I think she is town, let's lynch her"? I mean I'd expect some sort of backup for scum's opinions (i mean unless you're dunkerdoodles i guess lol) but just not that amount of effort that goes into something not real. I might lynch that slot, but I'm not sure who the alternative would be; as I think I have commented, I really just think Dunkerdoodles is mafia.

OH YEAH ABOUT THAT DUNKERDOODLES GUY. Most of his early content was misunderstanding game mechanics. He kept pushing for GL's lynch. And then after GL's flip he said he's "kinda not surprised" which makes like no sense at all considering he had nothing but positive things to say about GL while he was alive. He kept half-heartedly pushed for his own lynch for weird reasons too ("i think my flip would really help to sort the game so please lynch me even though i am being heavily scumread") and then actually tries to towncase himself based on being gl's #1 townread d1 (This play also feels relatively similar to Snarkysnowman's play after lynching his partner in the last game, under a similar scenario.)

And also I think cfj is really town and I'll try to explain why. His interactions with cd made me vote him at gamestart I believe and I still feel very good about those. 38 already reads as really genuine. I think it's normal to get angry at someone scumreading you, if not ideal, and cfj's posting here feels like righteous anger. It also doesn't fit in with the calm logic cfj seems to normally present, making it unlikely to be manufactured- cfj doesn't really strike me as the kind of person to do this. Before I found cfj's push on ASP scummy but now I think it's towny; he's critically analyzing ASP's posting here. I also just generally like the way he's poking at things? The conclusion he came to was incorrect but I do kinda think he got there in a towny way.

I'm sorry if what I said was hard to read. Really what I thought was not getting much resistance and the idea behind 348 wasn't "my reads are great you guys you should sheep them"- it was "hey i think we have reached a consesus here guys have i missed anyone disagreeing with this opinion" and that's kinda just what's been happening; I'm not trying to make cases because I'm not really trying to convince anybody.. Generally I justify my scumreads and use gut for my townreads so it's a lot harder when the spotlight is thrown on my townreads. But yeah, hopefully I can explain my reads in more detail from now on.

My reads are like this I think;

MarioManiac4, callforjudgement

serrapaladin, Not_Mafia, CheekyTeeky

Dunkerdoodles

I approve of the lynch on me, and then a lynch on cfj. I'm not sure who the one left to the end with Dunker (does anyone townread Dunker? I don't think anyone townreads Dunker) should be and I think you guys maybe should figure that out but I do think it should be in the lime section of my list.

wow i just looked at this in preview and i thought it would be really long because it took me a long time to make but it's actually fairly short rip

[MarioManiac4]

VOTE: MarioManiac4

Good luck. <3

[MarioManiac4]

gg. Well done mafia.