Micro 745: Beyond Death [Day 5]

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BTD6_maker
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Post Post #900  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:48 am

In post 899, Hopkirk wrote:'Quality of a push is subjective, but I would start by looking for things like whether the push contains logical fallacies, misrepresentation etc. Those are bad pushes (at least, when they are the only reason) regardless of whether the target is Town or scum.'

Hence, using 'give me detailed statistics of something that's very difficult to collect since it requires very in depth reading' is a bad counterargument to use since nobody is going to do that. That's putting the burden of proof unrealistically high in order to dismiss something, which sounds like a fallacy in itself.


The point is that there has to be at least some evidence. You cannot simply say that scum make worse pushes without any sort of evidence whatsoever, and I have seen none here. Thus, the most reasonable response would simply be to not use that as a reason in a case. What evidence would you consider reasonable? If there is no evidence (that someone would be able to realistically search for) then the entire assertion is unjustified and should be rejected.

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Post Post #901  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:55 am

In post 900, BTD6_maker wrote:
In post 899, Hopkirk wrote:'Quality of a push is subjective, but I would start by looking for things like whether the push contains logical fallacies, misrepresentation etc. Those are bad pushes (at least, when they are the only reason) regardless of whether the target is Town or scum.'

Hence, using 'give me detailed statistics of something that's very difficult to collect since it requires very in depth reading' is a bad counterargument to use since nobody is going to do that. That's putting the burden of proof unrealistically high in order to dismiss something, which sounds like a fallacy in itself.


The point is that there has to be at least some evidence. You cannot simply say that scum make worse pushes without any sort of evidence whatsoever, and I have seen none here. Thus, the most reasonable response would simply be to not use that as a reason in a case. What evidence would you consider reasonable? If there is no evidence (that someone would be able to realistically search for) then the entire assertion is unjustified and should be rejected.


I'd assume it would be implicit that the average scum make worse pushes (in non multiball) since they can't find legitimate scum and so can't find things legitimately scummy.
If scum/town make indistinguishable pushes then how is anything better than random chance? If you can’t look at content/motivation then how can you actually play/what do you look at?

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Post Post #902  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:10 am

How would anything be better than random chance? I would say that it isn't, or at least much less than you think.

Scum/Town pushes may not be conpletely indistinguishable, but that does not mean that scum pushes have more flimsy reasoning behind them. There probably are differences, but they are much more subtle.

However, what I think is this: everything is much closer to random chance than people think. For example, if a Townie claims to have an 80% scumread or something on someone else, that person may be much closer to, say, 40%.

This should be easier to get statistics on. When a Townie gives a percentage in a specific range, how often is that person actually scum?

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Post Post #903  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:43 am

What are you even trying to argue at this point?

If there's not a difference between scum and Town play then we might as well be playing a game of lynch whoever rolls the lowest number. I think it's clear based on the fact that you aren't advocating for a completely random lynch that you do indeed think that there are differences between scum posting and Town posting. Quit being ridiculous.
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BTD6_maker
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Post Post #904  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:49 am

In post 903, Micc wrote:What are you even trying to argue at this point?

If there's not a difference between scum and Town play then we might as well be playing a game of lynch whoever rolls the lowest number. I think it's clear based on the fact that you aren't advocating for a completely random lynch that you do indeed think that there are differences between scum posting and Town posting. Quit being ridiculous.


I never said that there is no difference. Indeed, I said the opposite.

There may be differences, but they are probably a lot harder to find than the simplistic ones. I think that, while differences probably exist, "quality" of pushes is not one of them.

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Post Post #905  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:55 am

And yet you're voting me for what you seem to believe was a bad push on cheeky... :roll:

I'm busy all day. Catch you guys tomorrow. I hope to see an opinion from Zito and then by cabd by that time.
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Post Post #906  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:22 pm

so do we believe that there's scum possible anywhere else other than within btd6 or maybe micc? certainly if btd6 isn't scum then it would necessitate rereading and starting fresh (ie considering previously strongly townread players), but am i correct in that we have two lynches before the game is over, at the very worst?

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Post Post #907  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:50 pm

Yes we have two lynches. No we're not lynching me.

Mod: has papa Zito been prodded? We're past 4 full days since he posted at this point.
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Post Post #908  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:18 am

Non game relatedish: The average scum push should be worse since the average player =/= the most experienced players who know how to perfectly make fake pushes look good.
Also, you didn’t address why scum can so easily avoid the factors that make a good push harder.

Second problem is common in most things, but also virtually impossible to test in mafia given there’s incentives to sound surer about reads than you are (Confidence seems to make people agree more than fence sitting- which isn’t widely liked either, plus personally I like it since it inherently seems like it produces more pressure), and it’s more common for experienced players to play low information based, so you don’t get full/average data sets.

Game related: you seem to be focusing more on Micc than your theorising would suggest you would/should.

Also might as well do this now,
VOTE: BTD

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Post Post #909  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:06 am

Sorry guys, I'll get to this at lunch today.
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Post Post #910  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:21 pm

Ok so I re-read Micc, Hopkirk and BTD6 in context of Day 1, side-by-side with Chip.

* Micc is still clearly town here. The early push on Chip was stamped by Micc Industries, he lamented later that it fell apart, and hopped back on as soon as it was viable again. In between those periods he was poking and prodding at everyone. There simply isn't a scum agenda here. If MiccTeam decided to pull off an all-day angry bus then kudos enjoy your win I ain't even mad.

* Hopkirk was a guy most of Day 1. But I think he was a town guy. There very much looks like a progression of reads on Cheeky which culminates in 398; I can grok his frustration with someone refusing to directly answer things and the fact he talks about it and continues to push it is town; scum would just cast nets elsewhere. His BTD6 push next is perfectly logical. His bounce to Chip when it occurred doesn't make a huge amount of sense from a scum perspective, there were a variety of targets he could easily have continued to counterwagon.

* Which brings us to BTD6. Chip really didn't like my naked vote on this slot, which is strange because he noted himself that BTD6 had offered the game virtually nothing. Shouldn't he be encouraging a wagon there? Especially considering that, as scum, all he really cares about is mislynching townies, so why the concern? I also noted that the only interactions between these two were to agree that my case was crap. Beyond that almost all of his "content" is avoidance.


So BTD6 is where I wanna go with my vote. Cabd we're at or extremely near endgame, I'd love for you to make with some words.
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Post Post #911  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:46 pm

This is me gearing up and putting down thoughts.
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Post Post #912  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:48 pm

A re-read of day one confirms I won't be voting Micc today. Zito's also probably off limits for now. That leaves hop and btd. Let me ISO both and make my choice, and we can get on with it and stop dragging my heels.
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Post Post #913  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:52 pm

Gods, what to make of post 820. It's the only thing i'm waffly about.
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Post Post #914  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:18 am

Is it about the Night 2 ignition? I've decided I can't justify it unless scum truly didn't understand the setup, and I think that's unlikely. I'm chalking it up to it either a) being BTD thinking he really needed to get rid of UC voyager who was solidly on his case or b) being a WIFOM move intended to be a distraction or c) a combination of both.

I guess I don't think its out of question that BTD would choose to ignite with the plan of coming into the thread first thing in the day to demonstrate his knowledge that ignition isn't the fastest path to victory for scum as a means for trying to get some town credit. TBH he was the most generally scum read player left in the game at that point and he would certainly be looking for an opportunity to shake things up.
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Post Post #915  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:32 am

VC 4.1Image
I lost it. Somewhere in the field.

Leading Wagon
BTD6_maker (2) - Micc, Hopkirk

Micc (1) - BTD6_maker

Not Voting: Papa Zito, Cabd

With 5 alive it will require 3 votes to achieve a lynch.

Day 4 will end in (expired on 2017-11-22 11:07:00).

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Post Post #916  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:07 am

In post 914, Micc wrote:Is it about the Night 2 ignition? I've decided I can't justify it unless scum truly didn't understand the setup, and I think that's unlikely. I'm chalking it up to it either a) being BTD thinking he really needed to get rid of UC voyager who was solidly on his case or b) being a WIFOM move intended to be a distraction or c) a combination of both.

I guess I don't think its out of question that BTD would choose to ignite with the plan of coming into the thread first thing in the day to demonstrate his knowledge that ignition isn't the fastest path to victory for scum as a means for trying to get some town credit. TBH he was the most generally scum read player left in the game at that point and he would certainly be looking for an opportunity to shake things up.


Why would I ignite, though? If I thought it cleared CheekyTeeky (and also delayed a scum win) it would drastically lower my chances of winning to ignite. I would be very likely to have a forced loss. There were 4 players left and 3 mislynches, so there was at least a 3/4 chance that I lose instantly.

This leads me to the conclusion that scum very likely did not think (when igniting) that it would clear CheekyTeeky. Of course, this only applies before the Mod clarified the rules. Now, you were the only one to post and you seemed like you at first did not realise that igniting would kill CheekyTeeky. We cannot know if Hopkirk or Papa Zito also thought that CheekyTeeky was cleared so this points towards you.

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Post Post #917  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:02 am

'Why would I ignite, though? If I thought it cleared CheekyTeeky...'

I think it would be fair to assume at least one person in the game is going to ask for clarification about how Lycan would resolve that issue. Especially given there's a few fairly experienced people here. If you're scum then the assumption is that you asked how it would be resolved before, then waited for Micc/someone else to ask how it would be resolved.

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Post Post #918  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:27 am

In post 917, Hopkirk wrote:'Why would I ignite, though? If I thought it cleared CheekyTeeky...'

I think it would be fair to assume at least one person in the game is going to ask for clarification about how Lycan would resolve that issue. Especially given there's a few fairly experienced people here. If you're scum then the assumption is that you asked how it would be resolved before, then waited for Micc/someone else to ask how it would be resolved.


Are you "accusing" me of the same thing that I "accused" Micc?

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Post Post #919  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:31 am

I'm not accusing you of it, I'm saying that it's null on Micc and everyone so you shouldn't use it as a reason you can't be scum/wouldn't ignite there.

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Post Post #920  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:12 am

In post 913, Cabd wrote:Gods, what to make of post 820. It's the only thing i'm waffly about.

I've gone back and forth on that NK and ultimately where I landed was this: The move was so absolutely suboptimal that the only possible benefit it could have was to introduce confusion into the game, so it should simply be ignored. Corollary to that, any discussion regarding the NK should also be ignored since it's just a thousand gallon tank of wifom.
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Post Post #921  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:00 pm

I am the one doing most of the analysis on the Night 2 kill and pointing out the evidence. Unless I am deliberately spreading a ton of WIFOM, the evidence points to Micc as the most likely, from my analysis.

Of course, to everyone else that leaves the possibility that I am indeed spreading a ton of WIFOM. My flip will resolve that. Once I flip Town, you will be able to get meaningful analysis about that kill without the fear that I am deliberately misleading you. All my analysis will be revealed as Townish.

If we mislynch someone else today, I will very likely be lynched in LyLo which will cost Town the game. If I am lynched today, we will be in LyLo.

Lynching me today is a good idea if, assuming I am Town, we would have a greater chance of getting scum tomorrow than we do today. That's probably likely, as you will be able to trust that my analysis is, at least, not trying to mislead. Then I can help Town further tomorrow and try to figure out who was behind that kill.

We still have 8 days so there is plenty of time, but I am willing to hammer myself, if need be. I can give you time to discuss before I am lynched.

This is not like Northsidegal's self-hammer. That was suboptimal. In this case, my lynch is actually optimal given two assumptions, which are that I will almost certainly be lynched if we mislynch someone else (and I think that is likely) and that we are more likely to lynch scum tomorrow than today (which I think is again likely, as Town can trust that my analysis is free of WIFOM). Even though I know I am Town, I think that lynching me is the right play here.

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Post Post #922  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:35 pm

Cabd gets the hammer not you. And I'm ready whenever he is.

If you're Town I'll take solice in knowing you don't get a vote tomorrow.
"To hide a tree, use a forest" - Ninja Boy Hideo

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Post Post #923  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:42 pm

In post 922, Micc wrote:Cabd gets the hammer not you. And I'm ready whenever he is.

If you're Town I'll take solice in knowing you don't get a vote tomorrow.


You can't really stop me from hammering without unvoting.

Also, why would you take solace in knowing I don't get a vote, if I am Town?

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Post Post #924  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:55 pm

If you're scum I don't really care if you hammer. If you're Town I trust that you aren't stupid enough to take the hammer from cabd.

Because I think you vote right now sucks. You're clearly pushing a shitty case that is based off one non alignment indicative post. You haven't reconsidered the game at all. You haven't considered why it makes sense for me or anyone else to make post 817 as Town despite that being your thing all game long. You still seem to think the case behind our day 1 scum lynch was bad.

You're a liability in lylo and 921 proves that you know that you're a liability in lylo. If you disagree please explain why youre offering to self vote here. And if you agree please explain why you're asking me about this.
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