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Post
Post #49 (isolation #20) » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:18 pm
Postby nancy »
Mainly thought it was ironic that the tool returned a "what" in response to my "of" vote, which I think is a pretty standard human response except in this case obviously the tool is a machine. I wasn't trying to troll it I was testing the parameters to see if it would recognize "CultOfAthena" by the "Of" string.
I am playing mafia by towntelling with an exceptional RVS ft. votetool.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Mathblade was in that game with me and they taught me a few things - biggest difference for me I'd say is that all players should be publicly re-evaluating their reads on dead players. If we have two lynches and the game hasn't ended, that means at least one of the lynched players was town - in a regular mafiascum game you'd know from the mod who it was, but in flipless it's something to discuss and argue about. So hold people accountable for when their reads change on dead players as well as living ones.
Also, associations are way more important to investigate and push on in flipless. It's one of the more tangible data points that we have, and scum aren't going to want to bus unless they're forced to.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Post
Post #75 (isolation #29) » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:29 am
Postby nancy »
Vote: villager
**I modified the output of the vote count given to reflect the perceived intent of innocentvillager. I am aware the automated vote counter did not pick up this vote properly. If I can't figure it out when I get time to adjust the code I will use a vote override in the settings.
**Edited second time to fix tags.
~~Math
Last edited by MathBlade on Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Also for anyone who's good at math can you check mine? Just out of curiosity I think we have a 5/9 chance of winning if we are to random decide the lynch order, so town should have a 55% win rate if randos are lynched.
Reasoning:
1) we decide on a lynch order. Each of the (9 choose 2 = 36) combinations of 2 M and 7 T are equally likely for lynch order. Each thus has a 1/36 chance of happening
2) If mafia is lynched in either of the last two spots, mafia wins. This happens with probability 1 - (7 choose 2)/(9 choose 2) = 5/12.
3) Mafia also wins in the scenario TTTTTMMTT, which happens with probability 1/36.
4) Town wins in every other scenario.
5) Mafia has win probability of 5/12 + 1/36 = 4/9.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Mathblade was in that game with me and they taught me a few things - biggest difference for me I'd say is that all players should be publicly re-evaluating their reads on dead players. If we have two lynches and the game hasn't ended, that means at least one of the lynched players was town - in a regular mafiascum game you'd know from the mod who it was, but in flipless it's something to discuss and argue about. So hold people accountable for when their reads change on dead players as well as living ones.
Also, associations are way more important to investigate and push on in flipless. It's one of the more tangible data points that we have, and scum aren't going to want to bus unless they're forced to.
Thanks! I’ll give this a read in a bit.
Accountability and constant reevaluation are things I can definitely dig. I’m not a big fan of pre-flip associations though. I feel a lot of the time they’re a big waste of time and being wrong with one can be very destructive. They aren’t so bad in theoretical thought which you could use to figure out how the game state will go, however I don’t think it should ever be used as evidence unless the first player has been investigated or something. And obviously here, that won’t ever be the case.
In post 86, GuiltyLion wrote:what issues do you have with my lines of questioning?
nothing. I just wanted to get more insight on if you are fake trying to generate content or not (any anywhere in between) since I personally don't see how you can expect an AI response with your questions
which isn't a scumtell. But your response to a slightly passive aggressive accusation is more interesting
Figured as much. The same thing could be said about your question though. I don’t think either alignment is going to willingly admit they’re grasping for straws in most cases. Meaning you’re going to get a similar response to the one Lion gave which is NAI.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Also for anyone who's good at math can you check mine? Just out of curiosity I think we have a 5/9 chance of winning if we are to random decide the lynch order, so town should have a 55% win rate if randos are lynched.
Reasoning:
1) we decide on a lynch order. Each of the (9 choose 2 = 36) combinations of 2 M and 7 T are equally likely for lynch order. Each thus has a 1/36 chance of happening
2) If mafia is lynched in either of the last two spots, mafia wins. This happens with probability 1 - (7 choose 2)/(9 choose 2) = 5/12.
3) Mafia also wins in the scenario TTTTTMMTT, which happens with probability 1/36.
4) Town wins in every other scenario.
5) Mafia has win probability of 5/12 + 1/36 = 4/9.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Post
Post #177 (isolation #46) » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:39 pm
Postby nancy »
In post 169, Wh4t wrote:Please refer to the post I bumped @ you. Your win probability following a random lynching scheme is pointless filler if you didn't intend for town to use that strategy. COA asked you if you intended for us to use that strategy so I guess the question is do you intend for us to use it and why did you post it if not?
I also don't get your aggressive attitude towards the pushes on you when you're the one talking about town tells, and what is a better town tell than scum hunting? Overall I think your contribution to the game has been pretty fluffy, and I still haven't seen you attempt to sort anyone. I think I'm probably biased in thinking your frustration seems forced...
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Post
Post #198 (isolation #50) » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:52 am
Postby nancy »
In post 187, innocentvillager wrote:What's the point of asking this question and hounding me on it, Wh4t? Is my answer to this stupid question really going to help you sort me, and if so how? Anyway does any of that give you any insight on my alignment? I'd be shocked if it does.
And I don't get your whole spiel on me going off about "towntelling".
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Mathblade was in that game with me and they taught me a few things - biggest difference for me I'd say is that all players should be publicly re-evaluating their reads on dead players. If we have two lynches and the game hasn't ended, that means at least one of the lynched players was town - in a regular mafiascum game you'd know from the mod who it was, but in flipless it's something to discuss and argue about. So hold people accountable for when their reads change on dead players as well as living ones.
Also, associations are way more important to investigate and push on in flipless. It's one of the more tangible data points that we have, and scum aren't going to want to bus unless they're forced to.
In post 69, Wh4t wrote:Seriously though I'm not sure associatives would work as chances are we lynch wrong coming from that viewpoint. Imo we scumhunt individuals day 1 and 2, vote off the scummiest and then look for clues in Lylo and day end surrounding those lynched.
The problem with just repeatedly lynching the scummiest person is that there will always be some "scummiest" person remaining and it gives scum an easy way to keep pushing mislynch after mislynch. So it's important that we re-evaluate who we were wrong about when it becomes more apparent that we've mislynched a few townies.
I'm mostly saying we should be talking about and discussing opinions on "could [x] and [y] be partners? why or why not?", or "who is definitely not partners with [x]?", or "if [x] is scum, who is their partner?", or "would scum [x] make this case & vote on scum [y], or does it mean at least one of them is town?" These questions are useful in any mafia game but in flipless we should be extra aggressive about sharing and making other people share their opinions on these types of associations because it will limit the trajectories that scum can take and people's answers/opinions to those questions will provide useful info to look back on if we lynch both [x] and [y] and some other players and yet the game is still going.
Having been in flipless 3p LYLO before, let me tell you it is
extra
hard when you only have one confirmed town dead player (which would be whoever was lynched to go from 4p->3p) and the possibilities for scumteams thus involve any of the other dead players that you lynched. You're going to want the people alive at crunch time to have as many associatives/reads given on all the other players as possible.
Check out Mathblade's ISO in the game I linked to get a better sense of what I'm talking about.
In post 69, Wh4t wrote:I feel like us discussing the strategy is oddly anti-town for some reason. Like we're giving scum the blueprints to victory. I suppose it could add extra pressure and give us another measuring tool. Like I'm probably going to look for people lacking organic associatives now lol.
eh, I feel you on this to an extent but generally I think townies should be as transparent as possible. Scum's blueprint to winning is ultimately always to convince us that they're trying to sort people and to convince us that townies are scum. If you force them to explain their reads - especially their scumreads - in detail it becomes harder and harder to fake those things.
In post 73, innocentvillager wrote:does anyone have any reads yet like even just an inkling? let's start there if so, so far literally no content has been produced so im at 100% null for everyone
I like this intro as I was feeling mostly null on everyone as well at this point. But Wh4t's 79 feels townie so I'm gonna vote Wossi, whose entrance was extremely underwhelming.
VOTE: Wossi
I'm also slightly scumreading CultOfAthena because she didn't follow up on her 51 and because 78 feels designed to look useful but doesn't actually do anything to advance reads/sorting. If 78 is meant to pressure Wh4t there's no bite to it whatsoever.
CoA
what did you think of nancy's response to your 51 and what kind of answer were you looking for when you asked that question?
In post 83, CultOfAthena wrote:That's perceptive of you on 51 - I really didn't get the response that I was looking for but I felt that further questioning would probably be a waste of time. Additionally, I didn't want to fill the thread up with too much discussion and potentially move out of an RVS state before everyone had gotten in the thread. I was looking for
why
she thought she had towntelled already, not the post she thought she had towntelled in.
Why not move out of RVS before everyone gets to the thread?
The
why
question is a good one but I'm surprised you thought it'd be a waste of time to ask it. Are you town, null, or scum on nancy right now?
In post 83, CultOfAthena wrote:78 wasn't meant to pressure Wh4t, it was meant to clear up what looked like a misunderstanding. Misreading something is in almost all situations going to be NAI.
Yeah, I agree Wh4t's misunderstanding is mostly NAI if not slightly townish because scum!Wh4t would know IV's alignment and would be more likely to pick up on his intended meaning, but I'm meh about you jumping into clarify on IV's behalf. Why not let IV explain himself first?
In post 86, GuiltyLion wrote:I don't see those as exclusive? I am seriously pursuing these lines of questioning at scumhunting but I recognize that it's early and you have to poke at things that aren't strongly indicative
what issues do you have with my lines of questioning?
In post 86, GuiltyLion wrote:I don't see those as exclusive? I am seriously pursuing these lines of questioning at scumhunting but I recognize that it's early and you have to poke at things that aren't strongly indicative
what issues do you have with my lines of questioning?
i never said they were exclusive
this feels a little pedantic, the way your question was phrased implies an either/or to me. Do you disagree? What's the point of this reply?
and you should reread my post because there was nothing in it intended to be passive aggressive, you are projecting that tone onto me yourself
here's another question - do you think CultOfAthena's 87 in reply to my questioning generated anything AI? You don't see how I can expect an AI response, so is it fair to say you see 87 as a null post as well?
because I can think of a couple potentially AI things in that post:
1) CultOfAthena said that RVS behavior is information for town. If this is her belief, why post a slightly game-advancing post like 51 at all when she had already made two other RVS posts? What RVS behavior and information did she get from the entrances of various players, especially the ones who posted after her 51? Is this something she truly thinks or is it an ex post facto justification for her behavior?
2) CoA stated she was "Null" on nancy, no effort to even give a lean in one direction or the other. Does this align with your own thoughts? Should she be doing more to resolve that read? Is the brevity intentionally cagey or is that merely her personality? Would scum in her position have given a firmer read?
I'm not going to fill the thread with all of these questions to her and I'm still thinking about them myself, but it's absolutely a start and more things to think about to get a read on her. If you don't think it's useful then you're not thinking deeply enough
In post 100, CultOfAthena wrote:This implies that "null" is simply the default position that people start in rather than an equally valid read position as well as that no effort was placed into my read. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the first point - the second point is false.
yeah I operate under the mode where everyone starts null and they do things that make them more or less likely to be town/scum. I don't really believe in a "null" read as an "equally valid read position", to me all that says is that you haven't yet seen evidence that tilts you in either direction. There's no "null" alignment, end of the day everyone is either town or scum, and I generally try to rank people in descending order of towniness where the ambivalent "null" middle tier is more of a "gun to my head town but there's still a decent chance they are scum" read more than a "I don't have them sorted either way" read.
If anything, I think it's best play to assume everyone is more likely town than not rather than "null", but I get how psychologically we tend to treat it as a 50-50 at gamestart and I can't honestly say that I'm consistent at calibrating correctly (any given slot being 75% odds town at gamestart) myself.
In post 73, innocentvillager wrote:does anyone have any reads yet like even just an inkling? let's start there if so, so far literally no content has been produced so im at 100% null for everyone
In post 74, innocentvillager wrote:interesting there's no incentive to not towntell this game as both alignments bc no nightkill
In post 85, innocentvillager wrote:GL would you say you're grasping at straws here for something to talk about/get the game rolling, or are you seriously pursuing these lines of questioning as scumhunting?
In post 86, GuiltyLion wrote:I don't see those as exclusive? I am seriously pursuing these lines of questioning at scumhunting but I recognize that it's early and you have to poke at things that aren't strongly indicative
what issues do you have with my lines of questioning?
In post 86, GuiltyLion wrote:what issues do you have with my lines of questioning?
nothing. I just wanted to get more insight on if you are fake trying to generate content or not (any anywhere in between) since I personally don't see how you can expect an AI response with your questions
which isn't a scumtell. But your response to a slightly passive aggressive accusation is more interesting
Also for anyone who's good at math can you check mine? Just out of curiosity I think we have a 5/9 chance of winning if we are to random decide the lynch order, so town should have a 55% win rate if randos are lynched.
Reasoning:
1) we decide on a lynch order. Each of the (9 choose 2 = 36) combinations of 2 M and 7 T are equally likely for lynch order. Each thus has a 1/36 chance of happening
2) If mafia is lynched in either of the last two spots, mafia wins. This happens with probability 1 - (7 choose 2)/(9 choose 2) = 5/12.
3) Mafia also wins in the scenario TTTTTMMTT, which happens with probability 1/36.
4) Town wins in every other scenario.
5) Mafia has win probability of 5/12 + 1/36 = 4/9.
In post 19, nancy wrote:So I can make my own VC any time I want? What value do I input for post number? 18 if I wanted to scrub up to your post above or?
In post 49, nancy wrote:Mainly thought it was ironic that the tool returned a "what" in response to my "of" vote, which I think is a pretty standard human response except in this case obviously the tool is a machine. I wasn't trying to troll it I was testing the parameters to see if it would recognize "CultOfAthena" by the "Of" string.
I am playing mafia by towntelling with an exceptional RVS ft. votetool.
Mathblade was in that game with me and they taught me a few things - biggest difference for me I'd say is that all players should be publicly re-evaluating their reads on dead players. If we have two lynches and the game hasn't ended, that means at least one of the lynched players was town - in a regular mafiascum game you'd know from the mod who it was, but in flipless it's something to discuss and argue about. So hold people accountable for when their reads change on dead players as well as living ones.
Also, associations are way more important to investigate and push on in flipless. It's one of the more tangible data points that we have, and scum aren't going to want to bus unless they're forced to.
**I modified the output of the vote count given to reflect the perceived intent of innocentvillager. I am aware the automated vote counter did not pick up this vote properly. If I can't figure it out when I get time to adjust the code I will use a vote override in the settings.
Also for anyone who's good at math can you check mine? Just out of curiosity I think we have a 5/9 chance of winning if we are to random decide the lynch order, so town should have a 55% win rate if randos are lynched.
Reasoning:
1) we decide on a lynch order. Each of the (9 choose 2 = 36) combinations of 2 M and 7 T are equally likely for lynch order. Each thus has a 1/36 chance of happening
2) If mafia is lynched in either of the last two spots, mafia wins. This happens with probability 1 - (7 choose 2)/(9 choose 2) = 5/12.
3) Mafia also wins in the scenario TTTTTMMTT, which happens with probability 1/36.
4) Town wins in every other scenario.
5) Mafia has win probability of 5/12 + 1/36 = 4/9.
In post 74, innocentvillager wrote:interesting there's no incentive to not towntell this game as both alignments bc no nightkill
No night-kill is more incentive to give town tells, as it doesn't matter how townie you are, you'll last the game and set a bar for scum that will be difficult to reach and make it harder for them to hide.
Did you read what he said correctly? It seems like you misinterpreted it - he said "no incentive to
not
towntell".
In post 77, Wh4t wrote:
I find it suspicious that this is your initial reaction. Also concerning is your lack of reads without actually helping town to get any.
I want solutions not problems Dannyboy!
He suggested a strategy to start forming reads - seems like helping to me.
In post 82, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm also slightly scumreading CultOfAthena because she didn't follow up on her 51 and because 78 feels designed to look useful but doesn't actually do anything to advance reads/sorting. If 78 is meant to pressure Wh4t there's no bite to it whatsoever.
CoA what did you think of nancy's response to your 51 and what kind of answer were you looking for when you asked that question?
That's perceptive of you on 51 - I really didn't get the response that I was looking for but I felt that further questioning would probably be a waste of time. Additionally, I didn't want to fill the thread up with too much discussion and potentially move out of an RVS state before everyone had gotten in the thread. I was looking for
why
she thought she had towntelled already, not the post she thought she had towntelled in.
78 wasn't meant to pressure Wh4t, it was meant to clear up what looked like a misunderstanding. Misreading something is in almost all situations going to be NAI.
In post 84, GuiltyLion wrote:
Why not move out of RVS before everyone gets to the thread?
The
why
question is a good one but I'm surprised you thought it'd be a waste of time to ask it. Are you town, null, or scum on nancy right now?
RVS behavior is information for town, no matter how minor. Jumping out of it too early allows scum to insert themselves into the thread more easily. Waiting to ask my question costs nothing and has a potential benefit, so I decided to hold off. Generally I prefer responding to multiple things in one post rather than making many individual posts, anyways.
Null.
Yeah, I agree Wh4t's misunderstanding is mostly NAI if not slightly townish because scum!Wh4t would know IV's alignment and would be more likely to pick up on his intended meaning, but I'm meh about you jumping into clarify on IV's behalf. Why not let IV explain himself first?
Normally I would avoid answering other people's questions, moreso just because it's commonly scumread rather than me actually thinking it's a bad thing to do. In this situation I considered it such a minor, barely game-related issue that the thought process didn't occur to me.
In post 98, GuiltyLion wrote:2) CoA stated she was "Null" on nancy, no effort to even give a lean in one direction or the other.
This implies that "null" is simply the default position that people start in rather than an equally valid read position as well as that no effort was placed into my read. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the first point - the second point is false.
In post 114, CultOfAthena wrote:I've read a game before with a player who only posted images - their style was a little different than yours, though, nancy. If you're really committing to this then this game should be interesting.
Also for anyone who's good at math can you check mine? Just out of curiosity I think we have a 5/9 chance of winning if we are to random decide the lynch order, so town should have a 55% win rate if randos are lynched.
Reasoning:
1) we decide on a lynch order. Each of the (9 choose 2 = 36) combinations of 2 M and 7 T are equally likely for lynch order. Each thus has a 1/36 chance of happening
2) If mafia is lynched in either of the last two spots, mafia wins. This happens with probability 1 - (7 choose 2)/(9 choose 2) = 5/12.
3) Mafia also wins in the scenario TTTTTMMTT, which happens with probability 1/36.
4) Town wins in every other scenario.
5) Mafia has win probability of 5/12 + 1/36 = 4/9.
Are you suggesting we adopt this strategy?
In post 125, CultOfAthena wrote:Hm. Apparently everyone's checked in by now - it certainly doesn't feel that way. It also doesn't feel like we really have a good starting point.
What about this is a towntell? Why should I be townreading you right now?
Spoiler:
In post 106, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Accountability and constant reevaluation are things I can definitely dig. I’m not a big fan of pre-flip associations though. I feel a lot of the time they’re a big waste of time and being wrong with one can be very destructive. They aren’t so bad in theoretical thought which you could use to figure out how the game state will go, however I don’t think it should ever be used as evidence unless the first player has been investigated or something. And obviously here, that won’t ever be the case.
Seriously though I'm not sure associatives would work as chances are we lynch wrong coming from that viewpoint. Imo we scumhunt individuals day 1 and 2, vote off the scummiest and then look for clues in Lylo and day end surrounding those lynched.
I feel like us discussing the strategy is oddly anti-town for some reason. Like we're giving scum the blueprints to victory. I suppose it could add extra pressure and give us another measuring tool. Like I'm probably going to look for people lacking organic associatives now lol.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
In post 106, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Accountability and constant reevaluation are things I can definitely dig. I’m not a big fan of pre-flip associations though. I feel a lot of the time they’re a big waste of time and being wrong with one can be very destructive. They aren’t so bad in theoretical thought which you could use to figure out how the game state will go, however I don’t think it should ever be used as evidence unless the first player has been investigated or something. And obviously here, that won’t ever be the case.
In post 108, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:What am I missing? I’m guessing you suspect something is off with his attempts to interact and sort Athena?
[...]
Figured as much. The same thing could be said about your question though. I don’t think either alignment is going to willingly admit they’re grasping for straws in most cases. Meaning you’re going to get a similar response to the one Lion gave which is NAI.
In post 107, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I can see that. But now that I have had some time to think about the setup a little more, it feels scum-sided enough where even the worst scum players can do decently well. The lack of information, hard evidence, and the fact that scum don’t really need to rely on there partner(s) for coordination since nothing will weigh them down, makes me wonder why did I /in.
In post 181, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:What’s wrong with being formal? The relaxed and serious tone doesn’t read like one filled with guilt, just honest. I’m also not seeing how he was over explaining and I rather have as much detail about why they think or thought someone is scum than none at all
In post 194, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I get that. I just don’t see how it’s scummy. Town can be just as aware as scum of how they appear or their actions because it’s important to be correctly read as town in order for three things. To not be mislynched, to be heard, and to listened too.
I can’t recall right now but I’m sure I have. I feel like I can tell when someone is filled with worry or unhappiness about an action they made or something they said. I don’t get any of that from Wossi. Just honesty.
I’m leaning town on nancy.
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
Post
Post #212 (isolation #58) » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:07 pm
Postby nancy »
In post 210, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Translation: nancy doesn’t see how wh4t has IV and her as a potential team and doesn’t understand how he town reads Lion currently.
Spoiler:
In post 187, innocentvillager wrote:What's the point of asking this question and hounding me on it, Wh4t? Is my answer to this stupid question really going to help you sort me, and if so how? Anyway does any of that give you any insight on my alignment? I'd be shocked if it does.
In post 101, Wh4t wrote:Ok this is where I'm at with leans:
Spoiler:In post 113, Wh4t wrote:GL--Spoiler:In post 146, Wh4t wrote:GL, COASpoiler:
Spoiler:In post 113, Wh4t wrote:nancy++Spoiler:In post 146, Wh4t wrote:Nancy, Not_Mafia, LUVSpoiler:
In post 101, Wh4t wrote:Everyone else is null until I dig a bit further.Spoiler:In post 113, Wh4t wrote:COA++;Spoiler:
