Micro 764: Marked For Death #2 - Game Over
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal
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northsidegal Survivor
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his confused what?In post 29, JaydragonKing wrote:If your confused, we haven't.
what's idiotic about 9?In post 30, TheGoldenParadox wrote:VOTE: JaydragonKing
I really don't like post #9. Would a town player commit this idiocy?
why were you about to hammer mathdino?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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not necessarily. perhaps you're partners with dino, or perhaps you're scum that just knows that the quickhammer would get you lynched instantly come tomorrow. your joke wasn't as obvious as you're saying it is – mine was, given that i was already voting dino. newbies are unpredictable and i haven't played with you before – i could easily belive that you were about to actually hammer.In post 42, TheGoldenParadox wrote:rather than posting a laughable and obviously joking intent-
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northsidegal Survivor
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for the sake of clarity the real reaction test was in 23 – i didn't expect anyone to take the double vote seriously.In post 55, Mathdino wrote:@Elsa: I agree with Lynch All Liars except in the specific case of reaction test. The "hammer" on me and "I'm a double voter, were you scum?" is a cheeky move trying to get me to think I was lynched and, if I were scum, to claim scum. I buy it.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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getting any vibes from anyone else? any good vibes on people?In post 137, Shawn Spencer wrote:
It’s a vibeIn post 135, northsidegal wrote:shawn, when you get a chance i'd like to hear why you scumread me.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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why do you think that?In post 148, TheGoldenParadox wrote:Doesn't anyone think that chesskid is maf?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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@mod v/la until friday
reasons for voting nm seem mostly based on his playstyle, but i could actually see him as scum this game anyways-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm here if you guys want to chat, can't really do any in-depth analysis at the moment though-
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northsidegal Survivor
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how does not mafia's flip help you sort people? what kind of conclsuive associative information would you get from that, if he was either alignment?In post 225, TheGoldenParadox wrote:What we got to talk about is the fact that you want to delay this hammer. Because of the mark of death, as mathdino said, notmafia's flip will help us sort people. You're looking increasingly scummy. Is it because you don't want to bus your scum partner?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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ah, i hadn't realized that who was marked would be private information rather than public. it shouldn't change much, outside of lylo.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i think scum are probably within {shawn, gamma, schism}.
i'm also wondering if nm is telling the truth, although i think that he is. if so, i'll have to think a bit about what this means.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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even though nm was the primary candidate for being lynched today, scum chose to mark him. immediately this seemingly nonsensical action jumps out to me as something i was thinking about before, that if i was scum and i knew i was going to be lynched tomorrow, i'd mark myself. that way, the end result is probably the same as if you marked a townie and lynched scum (one scum dies, one town dies), but you don't "confirm" a townie's voice.
that idea is far-fetched, though, and doesn't make a lot of sense.
although, perhaps parts of it still make sense – if scum think that we're likely to mislynch today anyways, marking nm ends up with the same result as marking a townier player – nm dies, the townier player dies. the difference is that you don't "conftown" the one person's voice.
i think the one conclusion that i can most confidently draw is that people were off on their reads yesterday and scum are in a comfortable position in terms of townreads. there's no urgency from a nm mark. either scum are among the most widely townread players and marking someone else would bring suspicion as to why they weren't marked, or the towniest players are entirely off on their reads and scum want to keep them around.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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another scenario – i'm putting too much thought into it, and it was a newbie move?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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no, that theory doesn't make sense either – i've been in the christmas spirit far longer than you, and i wasn't marked.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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why does anyone mark not mafia, is a better question.In post 301, Schism wrote:Math, if Im scum, why did I mark the obvious lynch?
yeah, both scenarios are pretty much what i was trying to describe. i'm going to go look at elsa's scumgame and try to get a feeling for how that comapares to this one.In post 302, Mathdino wrote:Loving it. But that seems to fly in the face of your scumteam suggestion. Or maybe it doesn't. Can you be more specific on:
"marking a townier player" - Like who?
"the most widely townread players" - Like who?
What possible ways are the towniest players completely off on their reads?
Sounds like you have 2 scenarios under your conclusion. From my perspective, here are the implications:
Scenario A: Scum are among the most widely townread players. This would implicate you, Gamma, and for a lot of other people, me.
Scenario B: The towniest players are entirely off on their reads. Given that I ended yesterday wanting to lynch NM and Schism, that would imply they're town, and that scum is in my townreads of {NSG, Gamma, Jay}.
PEdit: Will get to Schism's post. This post written as of 296.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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look up newbie 1836, it's my only completed scumgame. if you want my take on it, i played incredibly awkwardly and blundered a plan that i had going into day two.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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quick thought from rereading the game: i think schism is probably town. chesskid's replace out seems more town-motivated than scum motivated. like, if he were scum he probably wouldn't feel a huge motivation to read the thread and make really good contributions, he probably could've gotten by on just joking around like people had been doing or at least talking without really reading the thread too closely. the seeming obligation that he felt to make good contributions makes me feel good about schism being town.
oh boy – was the marked claim some kind of gambit?In post 360, Not_Mafia wrote:Okay so who’s marked?-
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strongly scumread by whom, except for you? the point about him feeling obligated to make an effort as scum is valid, but the timing of it makes me think that wasn't the case. he really wasn't in any danger of getting lynched at the time, nor was there even a lot of pressure on him. it genuinely reads as someone who can't get a good feel for the thread and so chooses to replace out. i'm not confident enough in this to declare schism conftown, but i'm confident enough that i'd rather not lynch him until later in the game, if recalibrating is necessary.In post 363, Mathdino wrote:He was being strongly scumread at the time of replace-out. He could also have felt obligated to his scumteam to make an effort to participate in the game instead of fall to a lynch he couldn't defend against.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i sincerely doubt that nobody was marked. i'm pretty sure all that accomplishes for scum is to give town an extra mislynch. unless it was unintentional (ie scum missed submitting an action), that's not the case. i think it's more likely that if nm is lying, whoever was actually marked stayed quiet to see how things would play out, and to try to figure out of nm was town pulling a gambit.In post 366, JaydragonKing wrote:... Going under the assumption that NotMaf isn't just trolling us all again, let's assume nobody's marked.
That means Mafia decided it was too risky to mark ANYONE, and just wants it to be a lynch only game, atleast for now.
What does that change?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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that might put weight into the idea that schism was the one who was actually marked and was just remaining quiet, but i doubt it from the way he approached nm's marked claim:In post 367, Mathdino wrote:Can I point out that Schism all day has insisted that there must be a counterclaim to NM, and has resisted the idea that NM was actually marked (until we finally got him to give us reads under that scenario)?In post 300, Schism wrote:
Someone CC this. Please. Why mark the obvious lynch for today?In post 288, Not_Mafia wrote:Yes, I'm markedIn post 337, Schism wrote:If NM is Marked, JayElsa and Shawn are the Scumteam. JayElsa for sure and if for some reason I'm wrong on Shawn, its Gamma >> NSG. Outside of Wifom, I can't see you, me, or NSG making that Kill. Due to Paradox flipping town, I'm a good ML tomorrow if they can make it through the night. That leaves today for them to Lynch either NSG or Gamma and you can already see Shawn putting it out there. JayElsa has said that they would kill Dino, but you are also a good ML for switching wagons if I get lynched today. I don't think they can wagon you today. This also helps JayElsa, who was hesitent to vote NM.
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If Gamma/Shawn are Marked, things get difficult: Im actually a fan of NKA so its fun for me. I think the best kill for you as mafia to make would be one of the lurkers since they haven't provided reads and are off the radar. Its quite possible Gamma/Shawn aren't giving this game attention and just picked a kill of someone that has been quiet and wants to lurk in the shadows while JayElsa, you, I and possibly NSG duke it out. In fact the NSG vote is worse when you think about it this way if Gamma is marked.
We would also have to think about why NM claimed marked, it would be a scumclaim if it wasn't a troll doing so. Paradox was lynched incorrectly and I think today is the best day to bag NM if he isn't marked. If we mislynch anyone but NM today we leave the wifom open in lylo, and Id feel more confident not seeing NM in Lylo.
So if Gamma/Shawn are marked, I would say the mafia are Gamma/Shawn + You/NM. Excluding the Marked, JayElsa would be my Top Townread, probably North 2nd. I would vote NM in this case to keep him out of lylo since I would believe that Gamma/Shawn are confirmed Scum.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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not necessarily. it's a perfectly viable tactic for scum to nokill in order to make the game mylo instead of lylo or just to deny town nightkill info, or even to pull some kind of gambit.In post 374, Schism wrote:Thats against wincon, right?
i don't like you approaching this from the perspsective of yourself getting lynched. let's say that we don't lynch you this game – are you saying you think it's shawn / [dino/elsa]?No one else is claiming marked so mafia did us a favor. We can ignore NM and get scum. JayElsa, Shawn, and I should be on the table, because unless NSG is actually scum, which i dont see it being, its optimal for town.
My Townflip Makes it Shawn + Dino/Elsa.
JayElsa Scum Makes it Shawn/Gamma
Shawn Scum Makes it JayElsa.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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erm, what exactly are you saying here?In post 388, Schism wrote:I lynched Paradox and now that Dino is claiming marked, Im just waiting for this now.
In fact, Shawn is off the table today since I dont think I can persudade him, but the other member of the scumteam also wanted to mark Dino as well.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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this is a good theory, but i think scum would just wait until either the next day where the gambit would be revealed or until the real marked claimed to push nm. there's no need for scum to try to be the ones who get the gambit revealed – it might put them in a suspicious light, ie "how did they know that nm was lying"? schism's reaction seems pretty townie to me.In post 392, Gamma Emerald wrote:I think you think he town based on mafia knowing he's lying, but I'm personally thinking it would mean he's wanting NM discredited since he knows it's not true. His plan would be real mark claims -> NM is discredited -> NM is lynched. So NM would be town and Schism would be scum.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm talking about the second part, the "other member of the scumteam". what does it tell you that both members of the scumteam chose dino?In post 396, Schism wrote:Its very hard to get a wagon of Shawn without Dino, whos going to deathtunnel me because of my mislynch of paradox IMO. The case for JayElsa scum is better.-
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by the way, this:In post 439, Not_Mafia wrote:Learn how to read people whose playstyles you don't like rather than just complainingIn post 441, Not_Mafia wrote:I've said scum is Gamma + Schism/Shawn
is why i think nm is town.In post 443, Not_Mafia wrote:Pure PoE to be honest, no one is leaping out to me as scum this game, which also points to the more low activity/low impact players, I can't recall a single thing Gamma has said or done despite his activity being decent iirc
Pire self preservation, I know I'm town, I could have been wrong about him, unfortunately I wasn't-
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northsidegal Survivor
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by the way, who's the second obv alt?
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you'll have to explain to me where the "townread" part of this comes in.In post 451, Mathdino wrote:Shamelessly tunneled/pushed TGP to everyone while townreading NM, then jumped over to the NM wagon when he felt he caught NM in a lie. Didn't switch back. Was completely site-inactive during the lynch and entire nightphase.
the "alt" activation thread or the account activation / "can't post?" thread? like i said, i'm certain that newbies have had account activation / not being able to post problems before. it actually matters whether or not shawn is an alt or not – up until now i've been assuming he's a newbie.I mean I remember them both posting in the alt activation thread.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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like i said, i've seen newbies have to post there before, but there's not much point in continuing this further:In post 453, Mathdino wrote:
There you go. Plus he seems to have some basic understanding of Not_Mafia's meta so...In post 1022, Shawn Spencer wrote:can't post, tyshawn, are you an alt?
that seems strange to say given that we now know tgp was town. basically, i think that anyone who has played with not mafia before would probably make the same points that gamma did, regardless of whether they were scum or town – it would look too disingenuous to push as scum, at least initially. the main point against him is that he just hasn't done much scumhunting this game – i understand that he's been v/la, but a lot of the time he's spent in-thread that he has had doesn't look good. plus, his theory about schism being scum in relation to the nm mark seems disingenuous to me.The townread on Gamma basically comes from not really seeing the scum motivation behind his actions. Openly trying to redirect everyone to TGP didn't feel like a scum agenda either. Sell me on why he's not town?
i'm in a bit of a position that's hard to describe, because i was spectating a game that he was just in where he was town and his play there and here are totally different. compare his posts here from december 18th and 19th:
Spoiler:
with his ones in this thread:
Spoiler:-
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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but what explains the activity difference between the two threads on the same days? elsa and shawn are both part of my lynchpool but i'd really rather lynch gamma today – an elsa or shawn townflip doesn't really tell me anything and then tomorrow it's lylo (i think?), but a gamma townflip would tell me that i'm definitely off on my reads and i need to reconsider.In post 463, Schism wrote:Shawn is more scummy. While you may have a point with activity differences, I'm going to place that on V/LA more than meta imo.
Would you compromise JayElsa or even Shawn?
I don't think Shawn and Gamma are the scumteam, whos the partner?
why don't you think shawn and gamma could be teamed?-
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@mathdino, i know i've said this before and maybe i'm confbiasing myself at this point, but schism's reaction seems townie to me. i don't see mafia taking the position of skepticism that schism did unless other people were doing so, but that wasn't the case – everyone else seemed to be operating under the assumption that nm wasn't lying except for schism. also, a lot of posts like 337 seem really genuine to me, the bolded parts especially:
shawn didn't really say anything, so there's not a lot to be gleamed there – i'd still say he's part of the lynchpool, if only from poe.In post 337, Schism wrote:If Gamma/Shawn are Marked, things get difficult:Im actually a fan of NKA so its fun for me.I think the best kill for you as mafia to make would be one of the lurkers since they haven't provided reads and are off the radar. Its quite possible Gamma/Shawn aren't giving this game attention and just picked a kill of someone that has been quiet and wants to lurk in the shadows while JayElsa, you, I and possibly NSG duke it out. In fact the NSG vote is worse when you think about it this way if Gamma is marked.
We would also have to think about why NM claimed marked, it would be a scumclaim if it wasn't a troll doing so. Paradox was lynched incorrectly and I think today is the best day to bag NM if he isn't marked. If we mislynch anyone but NM today we leave the wifom open in lylo, and Id feel more confident not seeing NM in Lylo.
So if Gamma/Shawn are marked, I would say the mafia are Gamma/Shawn + You/NM. Excluding the Marked, JayElsa would be my Top Townread, probably North 2nd. I would vote NM in this case to keep him out of lylo since I would believe that Gamma/Shawn are confirmed Scum.
gamma's rationale in in 352 seems believable on a surface level but i feel like it's missing a level of nuance. even further, i feel like his read on schism could have been an attempt to appeal to the marked player – math had made it clear that he scumreads schism and wanted him lynched, gamma could have been attempting to push a mislynch there with the support of the conftown. notice that his first mention of schism in the game (i think) is a scumread at the start of today:
i'm wondering if it might have been a plan thought up over the night, although at this point i recognize that i'm constructing narratives.In post 352, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm finding Schism very suspicious because they seem to have a very prominent agenda.-
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i've been in a game before where scum were doing this and the game stagnated a ton. it'd be a pretty quick read through, actually, if you're interested – micro 747 in my egosearch.In post 468, Schism wrote: Id find it ironic that borh lurkers are sitting back watching chaos unfold. I also find it highly unlikely. #GamblersFallacy?
this is entirely fair, although i still think the other game shows more inquisitiveness and effort at gamesolving than this one. i'd like to hear gamma's own take on this.In regards to differences in posting, Id argue that Gamma had more to work with in that game on page 12 than this game which was low on content and had a replace-out. Its a better question for him to answer rather than me speculate. Hopefully he can get on here soon and do something. Talk to me after he gets on.
just to clarify, 379 was talking about games in general, which i should have clarified. i'm not sure if no-marking would be any sort of benefit to scum in this setup, and i highly doubt that scum would ever do it.In Regards to Dino: wtf, you never claimed marked until #377 and i didnt expect you to lie/reactiontest throughout the day. 374 also mentions that Mafia did us a favor by marking the troll. I still dont expect a No-Mark, despite NSG saying it could work.
agreeing, here.In post 470, Schism wrote:@NSG: Dino brought it up, and Im sure I mentioned it before, but Gamma’s read on me for being “loud” is shitty, btw-
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i'm already the doublevoter, remember? nice scumclaim.In post 526, Not_Mafia wrote:Just wait until I pull out my bullshit double voting powers
on a serious note, i'll respond to gamma's catchup in a bit. also awaiting what shawn has to say.-
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what do you mean by this?In post 531, JaydragonKing wrote:Congratulations, Spencer, your about to pull a fricken Paradox .-
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given the flips and the fact that i know that i'm town, both scum were on the shawn wagon. here's where i'm at:In post 589, Toto wrote:Official Vote Count
Shawn Spencer(lynch): Gamma Emerald, Schism, JaydragonKing, Not_Mafia
Gamma Emerald(1): northsidegal
Not Voting(2): Shawn Spencer, Mathdino
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
{not mafia}
{schism, elsa}
{gamma}
i need to review day to to really see how the shawn counterwagon formed in response to gamma and who was pushing it the most to try to figure out who gamma's partner is, but gamma is almost certainly scum here.-
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gut tells me it's shawn/gamma, based on comments like these:In post 556, Schism wrote: I don't have intentions to hammer Gamma at this point, as I feel a Shawn lynch is better. JayElsa and Shawn are both off the current wagons and I feel they will hammer before I feel like doing so. I have no further responses.
that's obviously a very preliminary read, however.In post 561, Schism wrote:
I don't care if Gamma gets lynched. I know you aren't voting shawn and Gamma's lynch does nothing for my feelings of you or Shawn (the reverse of NSG's feelings of Gamma's Lynch, but a Scumlynch of Gamma could lead to a change in my Reads, but I find that happening less than you or Shawn flipping red).JaydragonKing wrote:Your worried about me hammering? The one who literally stalled the hammer day one to the point where we hung a different guy altogether?-
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eh, i felt like the old avatar matched more up with schism's personality. or maybe it was the avatar myself that shaped my view of the personality, who knows.In post 615, JaydragonKing wrote:But now I can't think of you as a douchebag because you got a cute anime girl Avatar. You found my weakness.
real content soon.-
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but nm, miltank was already a cute anime girl avatar - you didn't need to change it.-
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