Micro 649: Normal Idea Mafia (Game Over)

callforjudgement
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Post Post #700  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:29 pm

I jailkept Sgz last night. I decided that the most likely choice for scum was Leonshade and that he would almost certainly shoot Sgz, which would almost certainly lead to a scum win. If Leonshade were scum, protecting Sgz with my JK shot would likely lead to a guaranteed town win (because we'd have Leonshade's cop result which would probably lead to a confirmed townie or a 1v1, either of which allows town to win with five players alive).

I'm going to have to reread; I didn't expect that kill at all. There doesn't seem to be any theory reason to prefer 1SVT or McMenno as the remaining scum (either could equally well be an unclaimed roleblocker), so sorting this out will have to be based on dayplay; Sgz, obviously, is confirmed town. As usual when there's only one scum left, talking isn't all that useful (although I may well have questions and will answer questions that other players have, this is going to be easier to solve via referencing previous days than via trying to sort things out today).
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

callforjudgement
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Post Post #701  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:29 pm

OK, so looking through Heartache's ISO, there are plenty of interactions with McMenno, many of which clearly seem quite artificial. Heartache's been soft-pushing McMenno repeatedly (i.e. claiming a scumread on McMenno but not voting for him) repeatedly: #, #, #, #/#, #. In most games, that's the result of a scumbuddy relationship. In this game, though, I don't think it's as strong; there were obvious alternative "mis"lynches (itlepip/BYF day 2, no lynch day 3) which would be preferable for scum to push, and so keeping a level of suspicion on McMenno would have been useful if he were town, in an attempt to give the necessary lynch to push the game through. Then of course there's the weird claim-interaction thing where Heartache claims that McMenno's claiming soft-power but no-acted N2, and McMenno subsequently claims VT. I can most easily interpret that as a method of allowing the players to attack each other, then subsequently claim a townread if it becomes necessary.

There's also a second layer which is revealed upon reading McMenno. McMenno has hardly contributed through most of the game (day 1 he never left RVS, unsurprising given that it was so short; day 2 the only substantive post is # which is a reads list that's noncommital on many players). In general, when McMenno does contribute content, it's unexplained reads. Day 3, McMenno started scumreading Heartache as the second-strongest scumread (while advocating for no lynch) apparently purely based on the basis of Heartache's softclaim (#). By #/# McMenno apparently strongly thinks Heartache is scum (again without explanation; possibly OMGUS?), votes and then unvotes no lynch, and tries to force Heartache to claim. Day 4 is where things get interesting: # sets out the night actions, and tries to encourage people to assume that everyone's trueclaiming their role. That would make McMenno look town (because someone had to block Leonshade N2, and McMenno claimed no action that night with Heartache confirming it). OTOH, now we know that Heartache is scum, it's quite possible that that confirmation was fabricated in an attempt to drive suspicion onto other players. In general, I consider McMenno's apparent trust of scum not to fakeclaim (and attempt to drive that narrative via assuming that it can't possibly fail to be the case) to be a very suspicious turn of events. (Also, McMenno's reads continue to be either unexplained or entirely theory-based D4. McMenno doesn't seem to have actually scumhunted all game.)

Meanwhile, Heartache hardly has any interactions with Tere (=1SVT throughout most of the game). Pretty much all of them are driven from Tere's side; Heartache seems to have been ignoring Tere's presence in the game whenever possible. One thing I found interesting is that Tere scumread reso (= Heartache) for a bogus reason upon replacing in (# scumreads reso for dropping out of the game in # but not officially replacing out; but reso actually did drop out, and did the same thing in the now-completed Newbie 1740; "reso has stopped posting in all its games" is something that could easily have been checked at the time without violating ongoing-game rules). Tere seems to have scumread reso consistently all day 2, but didn't vote for ages (the vote counts are wrong but light_ganski never voted for reso) and only seems to have voted Heartache much later in # when prompted (and at a point when Heartache was very unlikely to be lynched; players were looking to consolidate at the time and somebody's vote would have had to change). Then soon after (#) Tere made a large case on BYF anyway (despite BYF being at L-1 and having voted for Heartache). The next day, Tere was back to pushing Heartache (#) but without voting (which makes some degree of sense as it was mylo at the time), and never voted again. (Incidentally, # is just weird.)

Once 1SVT replaced in, there was an abrupt reversal of opinion on the Heartache slot in # (claimed to have been a gambit in #; I can see the merits of trying to draw the kill onto the player you're watching, but Heartache wasn't exactly a likely kill target even with the endorsement…) Also, 1SVT seems to have hardly contributed late day 3 / early day 4. Incidentally, I didn't get a chance to reply to # because the thread had been locked by the time I got online, but # was meant to be a reply to #, rather than a question.

Overall, I'm pretty torn on this. I think McMenno is more likely to be the scum based on my reread, but I can see either as a possibility, so holding off on voting for now.

@Mod: Can you correct the votecount in #? It was a pain to figure out who was voting where at the time from it, as it's clearly wrong.
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

Something_Smart
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Post Post #702  (ISO)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:47 pm

In post 701, callforjudgement wrote:@Mod: Can you correct the votecount in #? It was a pain to figure out who was voting where at the time from it, as it's clearly wrong.

Fixed; my apologies.

Sgz13
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Post Post #703  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 2:47 am

Just when I thought I knew who scum was he goes and flips town.

There's only one thing keeping me from voting McMenno at the moment, which is the fact that Heart open claimed he visited nobody on D2 before knowing roles or anything. And if he indeed visited Leon, there's a good chance that slot was watched, and Heart didn't need to go out and take that risk.

I'm working off memory here, I'll see if I get time to re-read, unlikely though, but I seem to remember Tere mentioning the fact Leon was "obvtowning it up". It struck me as a little odd at the time as I wasn't so certain on Leon, but I guess if you knew he was town it indeed does look like obvtowning it up.

And thinking about it, Tere townreading me after my re-read whenever that was could also be looking to justify Heartache's town read on me which was obviously buddying (easy to see now), and thinking about it they were the only two town reading me at the time.

Now looking at CFJ, I really have been getting town feelings from the slot for a while now. I felt Gamma genuinely couldn't be bothered with this game D3, and scum at that point would be more excited I feel, and CFJ is obviously town looking with the posts so far. Possibly a bit non committal sure but so was Leo.

Only concern now was (again from memory) I got the impression of scum ganging up on poor old BYF, and Heart happened to be one of them (along with Gamma).

I can't believe I'm saying this, but if we're lynching today (is this a spot we should no lynch in?) I think it should be 1-shot.

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Post Post #704  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:59 am

In post 73, light_ganski wrote:The fact he was a bodyguard means the kill could actually have been aimed at anyone as well. Great :facepalm:

hmmmmmm

Sgz13
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Post Post #705  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:31 am

You make my content seem deep and insightful.

Sgz13
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Post Post #706  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:33 am

There was one thing also I noticed, not sure how relevant it is, but light/Tere's spot didn't go down in Heart's lists when it should have (i.e. at around post 73). Maybe you lot can make something out of it, I can't, but figured it's better to point out than to not.

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Post Post #707  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:28 am

I think I will only lynch cfj here; you are confirmed town, and I don't think 1svt's slot would fakeclaim non-consecutive watcher as roleblocker. I will have to read gamma's iso now

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Post Post #708  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:39 am

In post 182, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm just gonna stte this for the record: if reso's replacement does a better vote, I won't scumread the player because reso's policy lynch seems more of a playstyle thing.

biggest red flag post in the game
In post 344, Gamma Emerald wrote:If there is a Heartache townflip I may advocate powerlynching Tere.

In post 352, Gamma Emerald wrote:Town Heartache may not mean scum Tere, it just means it's something to consider as Tere was rather inconsiderate in that push.

"oh, I might do it, or I might not

see also; he latched on to tha byf's amished tell harder than a leech, and his sudden unexplained townread of me where he was scumreading me before

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Post Post #709  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:39 am

In post 494, Gamma Emerald wrote:Half assed reads list because I don't care to actually reread, town to scum:
Leon
McMenno
1SVT
Heartache
Sgz13
Don't expect much from me today.

Sgz13
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Post Post #710  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:41 am

In post 32, Gamma Emerald wrote:Hard claim my role bites.



What bites more jailkeeper or roleblocker? :P

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Post Post #711  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:42 am

I'm not doubting his claim

Sgz13
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Post Post #712  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:43 am

I keep forgetting mafia jailkeeper and stuff like that is possible.

callforjudgement
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Post Post #713  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:22 pm

@McMenno: Could you please explain why you are so insistent on thinking that everyone else is trueclaiming role? There's a scummy explanation (that you want people to believe your claim that you're a VT and thus can't possibly have blocked Leonshade N2); do you have a townish explanation available as an alternative?
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

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Post Post #714  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:26 pm

In post 713, callforjudgement wrote:@McMenno: Could you please explain why you are so insistent on thinking that everyone else is trueclaiming role? There's a scummy explanation (that you want people to believe your claim that you're a VT and thus can't possibly have blocked Leonshade N2); do you have a townish explanation available as an alternative?

why are you asking for my explanation? if I'm scum, you already know the answer. the only thing you are doing with this post is doubtcasting

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Post Post #715  (ISO)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:29 pm

Ugh, it's so hard to read 1SVT (as opposed to Tere, which is where most of my read on the slot comes from) as he's hardly contributed. He hasn't even expressed a read since Wednesday.

@1SVT: What were your reads day 4? In particular, did you draw any conclusions from the Heartache flip overnight? What are your reads now, and why?

PEDIT: @McMenno: You're acting in a scummy way. I want to know if there's an innocent explanation for it. Like, if you are actually town, you'd surely prefer us to lynch someone else rather than losing the game!
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

1 Shot Vanilla Town
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Post Post #716  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:42 am

Lol are people really trying to push me as scum considering I called out heartless not being Roleblocked?

1 Shot Vanilla Town
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Post Post #717  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:44 am

In post 715, callforjudgement wrote:@1SVT: What were your reads day 4? In particular, did you draw any conclusions from the Heartache flip overnight? What are your reads now, and why?


Yeah, you're scum.
McMenno isn't flipping scum and neither is Sgz.
POE only suggests you.

Sgz13
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Post Post #718  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:05 am

VOTE: callforjudgement

Let's do this.

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Post Post #719  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:46 am

VOTE: callforjudgement

Something_Smart
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Post Post #720  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:07 am

VC 5.1callforjudgement (2)- Sz13, McMenno (L-1)

Not voting (2)- callforjudgement, 1 Shot Vanilla Town

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

(expired on 2016-11-19 22:00:00)

Mod notes: :cool:

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Post Post #721  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:03 pm

In post 717, 1 Shot Vanilla Town wrote:
In post 715, callforjudgement wrote:@1SVT: What were your reads day 4? In particular, did you draw any conclusions from the Heartache flip overnight? What are your reads now, and why?


Yeah, you're scum.
McMenno isn't flipping scum and neither is Sgz.
POE only suggests you.

This is such a strange endgame.

You haven't done anything useful for ages, and when I ask you questions to try to figure out what you were thinking, you refuse to answer and call me scum, without pushing the read. You didn't even have a scumread on me before the post! (# implies either that you think I'm town, or that you think I'm scum with you; the latter is impossible.)

McMenno has been acting in a scummy way all game. When I ask him questions to try to figure out if there's an innocent explanation for his actions, he refuses to answer and pushes me instead.

In other words, a) one of you and McMenno is tunnelling, b) the other is exploiting that by forcing the conversation to be about me rather than defending yourself. And because you won't let the conversation be about anyone but me, you're making it impossible to figure out which is which!

Mafia, as town, is a game of looking town, finding scum, and pushing your scumreads. Sgz, who's confirmed and doesn't even have to look town, is doing all of that; he's come to the wrong conclusions, but that's acceptable. You aren't doing that. McMenno isn't doing that. McMenno is pushing me, and at least giving reasoning; but that's only 1 out of 3 parts of the job of a townie. You aren't doing any of the three. Both of you, please try to put more effort in!
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

Sgz13
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Post Post #722  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:45 pm

Only scum would have looking town as their number 1 priority.

callforjudgement
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Post Post #723  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:41 pm

Well, it's a fairly high priority in mylo/lylo, when there are few players alive and a mislynch costs you the game. (In the extreme case, a 2:1 lylo with one player confirmed, you already know who scum is, so looking town is directly part of pushing scum.) Besides, it's easier to push your reads if other people are fairly sure you're town.

I'm just astonished that players would completely abandon any attempts to help the rest of the town determine that they're town, especially this late in the game when their mislynch would lose the game. Someone's doing it, as we have two players trying it and, much though they're acting like it, they can't both be scum. 1SVT apparently has a PoE read on me as scum, implying that he thinks McMenno has been playing townishly. And McMenno's reaction is basically "I'm being townread, I don't need to defend myself when someone sets out the argument for me as scum". Instead of helping me read him, he's apparently defending himself by trying to end the game as soon as possible, offering 1SVT the hammer and hoping that the day and thus game are over before he gets too broadly criticised. (If he's town, this would be a fairly risky strategy, depending on 1SVT being town and reading him and me correctly, and on you not changing your mind. If he's scum, rushing things makes more sense as there's less of a downside, and getting in before you change your mind would be advantageous.) Bear in mind that all this started because I wasn't sure whether McMenno's reactions to claims were an indicator of him being scum or not. I really didn't expect the response to be an outright refusal to help me scumhunt!

I'm still not 100% sure that McMenno is scum (of course, I will be if 1SVT turns up and doesn't hammer). But he certainly isn't doing anything to help his cause.
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

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Post Post #724  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:13 pm

Well, I'm here so I'm proven town, right?

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