Micro 649: Normal Idea Mafia (Game Over)

callforjudgement
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Post Post #725  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:15 pm

Yes.

VOTE: McMenno
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Post Post #726  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:18 pm

So my reason for thinking McMenno is town is from previous experience with him.
I'm not looking to rush the day but sgz is also confirmed town here considering you either lied or you jailed him.

So we have a claimed VT and a claimed Jailor.
Give me a good reason to vote McMenno over you.

We know that Leo was roleblocked night 2, so Jailor would suggest this as well for me.
Again, POE just points to you, Call.

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Post Post #727  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:25 pm

In post 701, callforjudgement wrote:Once 1SVT replaced in, there was an abrupt reversal of opinion on the Heartache slot in #488 (claimed to have been a gambit in #640; I can see the merits of trying to draw the kill onto the player you're watching, but Heartache wasn't exactly a likely kill target even with the endorsement…) Also, 1SVT seems to have hardly contributed late day 3 / early day 4. Incidentally, I didn't get a chance to reply to #655 because the thread had been locked by the time I got online, but #654 was meant to be a reply to #641, rather than a question.


This is one thing that worries me with you.
You started to throw shade on me instantly and using my opinion on Heart as the main focus, considering I'm the one who called them out for not being role blocked.

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Post Post #728  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:31 pm

In post 610, callforjudgement wrote:1SVT + Heartache: I don't see any reason why this wouldn't work, given that it would explain all the contradictory investigative data, although it would require a nightkill on Sgz13 (or a no-action gambit) N2;
1SVT + McMenno: This situation seems most likely if 1SVT is a rolestopper. He could have rolestopped his buddy McMenno N1, Heartache N2, Leonshade N3. Again, this requires an nightkill on Sgz13, but there's a plausible explanation in this case: nothing in this scenario confirms that McMenno is vanilla (he didn't act N2 but could have had an N1, odd-night, or non-consecutive modifier), and McMenno could therefore have somehow determined Sgz13's role night 1, which would make him a high kill priority.
1SVT + Sgz13: Again, if 1SVT is blocking night actions, there don't seem to be any problems here (this works with roleblocker, rolestopper, or jailkeeper). This scenario is particularly plausible because it's trivial to explain the missing kills in this one.
1SVT + Leonshade: This is very similar to the 1SVT + McMenno case, although like in the previous case, 1SVT can have any blocking role and it still works.


Like here, you are instantly trying to push me as the role blocker against Heart.
It's a physiological comment one of these to get people to believe your side.
You also try to pin both me and McMenno as scum here more than others (apart from me and Leo). You give a small reason to me and heart, but kind of right it off quickly.

In post 610, callforjudgement wrote:Heartache + McMenno: This works fine if McMenno blocked Leonshade's night action N2. We only have Heartache's word that McMenno wasn't responsible for that. Again, it'd need Sgz13 to be the nightkill.
Heartache + Sgz13: I can't see a sensible way to make this work; if Heartache were Ascetic (to block Leonshade's N2 action) it would also have blocked 1SVT's N3 action. I guess you can make it work if both scum players have some sort of roleblocking/rolestopping role (Heartache blocking my action N2, Sgz13 blocking Leonshade's action N2, and 1SVT being the kill target), but that seems fairly unlikely.
Heartache + Leonshade: Straightforwardly works, because most of the investigative results can be lies.


The way you word these are you trying to draw focus away from Heart. "it'd need Sgz13 to be the nightkill." "but that seems fairly unlikely."
Looks strongly that you were trying to protect your buddy here.

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Post Post #729  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:42 pm

In post 352, Gamma Emerald wrote:Town Heartache may not mean scum Tere, it just means it's something to consider as Tere was rather inconsiderate in that push.


In post 344, Gamma Emerald wrote:If there is a Heartache townflip I may advocate powerlynching Tere.


In post 354, Gamma Emerald wrote:It feels like a scummy push because of the opportunistic feel.


In post 356, Gamma Emerald wrote:Tere ignored the fact she stated she would be gone and decided to push her on the fact she was gone. Reeks of opportunism to me.


These are Gamma protecting Heart

In post 494, Gamma Emerald wrote:Half assed reads list because I don't care to actually reread, town to scum:
Leon
McMenno
1SVT
Heartache
Sgz13
Don't expect much from me today.


Has Heart as 2nd top scum read, but nothing towards heart, and even pushing Leo for a "scum slip" over heart (Leo was still top town read though?)

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Post Post #730  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:43 pm

In post 452, 1 Shot Vanilla Town wrote:
In post 257, BigYoshiFan wrote:It's a Gamma/Leon or Gamma/Heart team. You'll all see it once I am hammered.


This


So this was spot on then.

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Post Post #731  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:44 pm

I think the best argument for McMenno being scum is his play day 3 (which is particularly clear from the ISO).

He starts off arguing for no lynch (presumably based on theory arguments), then expresses a willingness to lynch anyone but Leonshade in # (despite the fact it's mylo; this is a response to a request for reads), then starts pushing Sgz for unknown reasons (he's pushing Sgz as strongly as he ever pushes anyone, and hasn't given any reason for Sgz as scum past #, way in the past and basically based on RVS posts). He also pushes Heartache as scum based purely on lack of claim (presumably so that when Heartache claims, it gives him a convenient reason to revoke the scumread on his buddy, whilst getting in a bunch of distancing in the meantime). That's… all McMenno did day 3.

Heartache claimed a no-action on McMenno, and McMenno eventually claimed VT. That's a convenient set of claims for scum: it conveniently hides the fact that McMenno's been performing actions via providing corroboration. McMenno then pushed (and is still pushing) very strongly for people to believe that scum would trueclaim their role and fakeclaim their actions, and hasn't explained this even when asked. That makes a lot of sense from a scum perspective, because it would necessarily push suspicion onto me if people believed them; on the other hand, I can't see any reason to believe that scum would act like that in the first place, and suspect that there isn't one.

Then today, McMenno's been refusing to engage, instead trying to rush the day as much as possible. That makes it look like he's confident of winning if people don't think things through, but worried about what might happen if the day goes longer. # is a naked vote on me as soon as it looked like my wagon might go through. When a player hammers like that, it's normally considered an admission of being scum. That wasn't a hammer, but I'd have expected a townie to give at least some explanation.

PEDIT: My chart there was attempting to eliminate players as scum based on theory reasons (for example, we know that Sgz and Heartache can't be scum together). When I started it, I assumed that most pairs would be eliminated and we could solve the game on night actions (especially as the theory posts in the game so far, from McMenno, had been painting it as very simple). It turned out there were a lot more viable pairs than I thought.

It's a mathematical fact that based on the information we had on D4, in most of the pairings where you were (hypothetically) scum, you had a roleblocking role of some kind. (McMenno couldn't have blocked Leonshade N2 because Heartache claimed to tracked him nowhere and would have been town in the scenario of you + McMenno; Sgz couldn't have blocked Leonshade because I blocked Sgz; and Leonshade wouldn't have been able to rolestop himself N3, so he would have needed a buddy to do that.) That wasn't intended to throw shade on you. It was intended to make sure that we weren't missing any possibilities as to who the scumteam was, that might have wrongly lead us to think that scum was confirmed or that a townie was confirmed scum. (And doing that was particularly important, because McMenno was trying to convince us of incorrect theory conclusions at the time!)
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Post Post #732  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:45 pm

My PEDIT above was a reply to #.
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Post Post #733  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:51 pm

In post 596, McMenno wrote:Nevermind, callforjudgement + Heartache/Leonshade isn't ruled out. But my second point still rests: For one of Heartache or Leonshade to be town, callforjudgement HAS to be scum.

Here: this is why I was concentrating so much on the theory.

The quoted statement is outright incorrect, and McMenno wanted people to believe it was true. As it happens, Leonshade has flipped town, so if McMenno were telling the truth here, I'd have been incorrectly confirmed as scum, and scum would have won already.

This is what made me run through all the possible scum pairings to see which were viable. For example, 1SVT + Heartache was viable at the time (and only disproved by your lack of quickhammer just now, although I was reading you as likely town anyway by that point). In order to show that they were viable (and thus that McMenno's theory conclusions were wrong), I had to give an example of a setup in which it could happen.
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Post Post #734  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:52 pm

In post 731, callforjudgement wrote:Then today, McMenno's been refusing to engage


That's town McMenno though.

Why did you jail sgz instead of Leo knowing that Leo could get us a result?

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Post Post #735  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:53 pm

Oh wait, ignore that question, it would have stopped him.
But yeah, why sgz? He was pretty town read end of yesterday.

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Post Post #736  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:03 pm

I thought he was likely to be the nightkill, especially because he was confirmed town (he couldn't have been town with Heartache).

If I'd stopped the nightkill, there would have been five alive, meaning that we'd have a mislynch. Combined with Leonshade's result, that would likely have been a town autowin, or almost so.
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Post Post #737  (ISO)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:04 pm

EBWOP: "we'd have a mislynch" = "we could mislynch someone and still not lose", i.e. we'd get two tries to find scum. Just realised that that might be a bit ambiguous.
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Post Post #738  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:37 am

Actually, just realised that now 1SVT is confirmed as town, we might have a forced win here.

If we no-lynch, I jail McMenno, Sgz weak-doctors McMenno, 1SVT watches Sgz, then:
- If McMenno is scum, he can't do anything because I jailed him (and in particular, can't nightkill a second player, so we necessarily survive until tomorrow). Sgz dies due to the Weak ability, and 1SVT sees that nobody targeted Sgz (thus the death must have been a consequence of the Weak ability rather than a scum nightkill).
- If McMenno is town (and thus I'm scum), Sgz won't die from the Weak modifier, so the only way he can die is from the scum nightkill. But if I kill him, 1SVT will see the kill, and thus be able to prove me scum. I can't interfere with this with any potential power role: it must have been me who blocked Leonshade N2 in this scenario, and if I have a blocking role, I can't be a Ninja at the same time. (Actually, now I'm not sure the plan works: I checked the list of roles while reading the post, and I guess if I were scum it'd be possible for me to be a JOAT (Jailkeeper, Ninja). Highly unlikely, though, so it might be worth going for it anyway.)

Anyone see any problems with this plan?
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Post Post #739  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:53 am

Wait, just realised that I might not be able to block McMenno from blocking me (and thus being able to make a kill, winning the game for scum).

@Mod: If two players block each other, and one of them performs the nightkill, does the nightkill go through?
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Post Post #740  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:05 am

In post 739, callforjudgement wrote:Wait, just realised that I might not be able to block McMenno from blocking me (and thus being able to make a kill, winning the game for scum).

@Mod: If two players block each other, and one of them performs the nightkill, does the nightkill go through?

Yes.

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Post Post #741  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:57 am

Scum are allowed to kill and perform their action at the same time?

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Post Post #742  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:15 am

Which way you leaning 1 shot?

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Post Post #743  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:19 am

Considering Tere was town and Heart was scum, let's face it, it's much more likely Tere was the target than me after D2. I was the only guy townreading Heart at that point, makes no sense for me to have been the target, and they didn't know what role I had, I'm pretty sure that isn't possible.

Leon was jailed D2, CFJ claimed to have jailed me to avoid having 2 almost confirmed townies or to CC me before he read the thread or whatever not sure it even matters, and I stopped the kill on Tere, with scum no killing N3.

Occam's razor. I'm good with my vote.

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Post Post #744  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:14 am

VOTE: CFJ

I agree that I would have been the night kill night 3 and even probably night 4.

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Post Post #745  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:25 am

phew almost thought I wouldn't make it

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Post Post #746  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:26 am

thanks town and my buddy heartache :smile:

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Post Post #747  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:38 am

Balls

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Post Post #748  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:05 am

Sorry, everyone.

I was indeed scum, and tried my best to give you a game, but it was pretty much always going to be an uphill battle. Town had way too much investigative power, and I was forced into nightkilling Leonshade because it was the only kill that a) gave me a night action claim that was viable as town and b) didn't give town a 100% autowin (as seen above, town very nearly had an autowin even in this setup without the cop, but I was saved only by action resolution).

I'm pretty sure Heartache self-hammered due to needing to die before I did. I'm not even a Jailkeeper. I'm a Night 2 Rolestopper. I had to significantly overclaim my role to prevent town getting too far ahead just based on nightplay; and if I'd died and flipped my role, it'd have implicated Heartache so strongly that there's basically no chance we'd have survived another day.

I do think I may have screwed up my play D4 (which is the main reason I'm annoyed at this game; I'm normally happy to play a townsided setup as scum, but it's frustrating to screw up the theory that over). If I'd claimed to target Leonshade (trying to paint him as the nightkill target), or popcorned to 1SVT rather than Heartache, scum would probably have been in a better position (clearly I couldn't do both; if I didn't claim to block Sgz, 1SVT would have been confirmed town). It's hard to know, though. After 1SVT claimed (thus making it very hard for Heartache to indicate that there was a rogue roleblocker out there), I realised that I basically had no chance to win, but played things out anyway in order to give town a game. I think I did better than I was expecting, but even so, I still didn't really stand much of a chance.

(BTW, my frustration at McMenno and 1SVT earlier was genuine. 1SVT improved and I have no problem with his play on this page (although the "you're trying to call me a roleblocker" argument is still nonsensical; I'd have mentioned that even as town), but I wouldn't want to play with McMenno again; his playstyle helps scum regardless of which faction he's on (his town playstyle is trivial to fake as scum, and not helpful to town when he draws town).)
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Post Post #749  (ISO)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:19 am

Well thanks for trying Call.
I think if you pushed more towards lynching Heart then I would have sided with you more this day, I've only seen you in some games, but you don't seem like the player to throw a team mate under the bus.

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