Micro 656: Dem Tryouts 4 - GAME OVER

[Pine]

Nvm, looked up your scum thread

[GreyICE]

Pine's analysis is far more correct than mine. Mine was biased in a really particular way on purpose.

[GreyICE]

Oh read the QT, Pine caught it. Yes, Pine was 70% correct. You don't want to shoot people who might be lynched ever, because not being lynched is good. You want to shoot clever entrenched scum or town you really want dead. It was a deleberagely defective analysis.

[Pine]

Yeah, I'm almost positive GreyIce is Town. His theory post in 192 just plain does not hold water. He'd suggesting that "smart scum" will eliminate the other scumteam. I'm sorry, but no. This is a Townsided setup, only remedied by extra night shots.

I think he was trying to use his clout to bully hopefully-inexperienced scumteams into acting against their self-interest.

That said, I don't think we can let the other team live TOO long. or we'll inevitably soak one of their kills.

It's going to be a balancing act. Night One, I think we gun for Town

This post, GI?

[GreyICE]

Yep. I don't agree it's town sided, I think it's about 40/30/30. But you're right scum shooting at scummy people is a hyper benefit for the town.

[Pine]

I'm still baffled by the NL. I mean, if they'd gone ahead and lynched Jester, who was probably the most likely D1 lynch, it would have changed the N1 dynamic. I likely would have shot for scum, maybe Vedith or Aeronaut. I would likely have not suspected Infinity, though he may have eaten a N2 shot aimed at Town. Ultimately, I don't think it would have ended up with an easy endgame. Jester was a genuinely-scummy low-hanging fruit, against whom a case was easy. We only needed two Townies, and we knew which strings to pull. With Jester out of the mix, and Infinity's clever play lasting longer, the results may well have been different. Certainly it wouldn't have been a blowout. Similar logic applies to if Aero had been more active. He was the one I was concerned about.

[GreyICE]

It was just flat awful play.

[Pine]

Yeah, no excuse. NL is only useful in MyLo or special mechanics, and I could argue that it's counterproductive in MyLo. Consider a 3:1 MyLo. You NL, and scum chooses who they take into 2:1 endgame. The mechanics here weren't special enough to excuse it. The lynch is Town's only weapon; relying on crossfire is passive and tantamount to moral cowardice.

[Infinity 324]

Yeah it's complicated. I would like to play this setup again sometime

[Pine]

Yeah it's complicated. I would like to play this setup again sometime

I concur.

[Infinity 324]

If scum shoot the towniest players then it benefits scum not to look too towny

[GreyICE]

Welcome to the paradox of multiball and the reason a lot of people Nate it. Good scum play is to coast as "pretty town" without making waves.

[Pine]

Nah, I love multiball. It encourages non-axiomatic analysis.

[shos]

Love this discussion guys.

I was trying to make an EV for this setup, unsuccessfully yet. It has been suggested indeed that NL day 1 is best play, I disagree. Id love it if you guys debate about that in that thread. Ill link soon.


If you guys wanna participate in run #5, pm me =D

[Infinity 324]

PMed shos about this, but I think blitz deadlines would work really well for this since it's a micro and since a big part of it is nightplay.

[Pine]

Concur, conditional upon what you define as blitz

[Infinity 324]

5 days/1 day would be good I think, or longer maybe

[shos]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=115&t=67712

[shos]

I can try a blitz run. But really, if anyone can EV this ill be superglad.
The setup is very intriguing. I built it as an attempt to make the smallest multiball; at first 7p closed, its evolution was interesting too. This looks good by now.

[Infinity 324]

I can try to write a computer program to just run the setup over and over this weekend. But I haven't programmed in a while so we'll see

[Vedith]

GG scum glad you guys won over town.
Pine looked like obvious scum but I didn't have GL as his buddy.
Jester was town and he made some pretty good points in the game. Jester has more fun as town and people failed to see his town posts as they only focused on the negative. You shouldn't really do that as I town (I'm guilty at doing at times).
I did think Gamma could be scum and was trying to give him a free pass but wasn't sure.

Thanks for the game all and sorry for being part of the reason you swapped out Grey, it's never my intention to do that, but truth be told I felt more comftable with not posting anyway, take that as a compliment though.

Not sure why I played so bad (worse than normal) I find multi hard and I think i played more as if I would have as town. Which normally leads to me looking as scum lol.

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah
I deleted my role PM before I could read it so I had the ability to replace in

[Radja]