You know, I didn't think about it much since lurking as hard as shaddow did is a pretty understandable reason to be wagoned. (Not saying it's a great reason on day 1—better to let replacement bait be replaced—but it certainly happens enough.) But the fact that Dave was on the wagon is at least some positive evidence I'm chosen.
We really haven't done much analysis of Dave yet, actually. Here's his complete vote log.Day 1
- 7: Vedith, L-3
- 30: Creature, L-4
- 83: Vedith, L-3
- 359: nn30, L-2
- 438: shaddowez, L-1
- 479: nn30, L-1
- 625: Human Sequencer, L-2
- 822: Psychotic Dave, L
I think being voted to L-1 by Dave is reasonably strong evidence that I'm town, but pretty weak evidence that I'm chosen. nn30 wasn't chosen, after all, and Dave sandwiched his vote for me between votes for him. I suspect he really did just want to lynch any townie and end the day at that point.
Dave's vote for Creature, on the other hand, is fairly strong evidence of his being chosen. I just don't see any other compelling reason to try and start a wagon from scratch on a player as easy to townread as Creature, when you already have a great mislynch candidate in Vedith. His vote on Human is also evidence that Human is chosen, though not quite as strong since he didn't start that wagon himself.
The living slots Dave never
voted are Tenshii and TTTT. I think we should flip both of these. I want to start with Tenshii, but I'm not so picky about that.