Micro 714: Vengeful Mafia Modified #4 [Game Over]

[Something_Smart]

Not crossvoting until BTD6 posts because I won't have consistent access. But it's pretty clear that Draynth went into the day intending to get me lynched (as opposed to intending to sort us) and only voted me once he thought that BTD6 was more likely to vote me as well.

[Something_Smart]

Also 148 is full of misrepresentations and misleading statements that I'll hopefully get to tomorrow when I'm not stuck on mobile.

[Draynth]

UNVOTE: Something_Smart
I need to consider some scenarios and on the off chance BTD is scum I don't want to give him the chance to hammer in the meantime

[BTD6_maker]

cool

VOTE: Something_Smart

BTD, If you need further convincing that SS is scum just look through his iso. After Hiraki questioned the townread that Transcend had on him at the start of the game, he hard tunnelled on him for, quite frankly, a crappy reason. Above he says that this isn't a good reason to scumread him, I completely disagree. It's too convenient.

Objectively speaking SS hasn't done any proactive scum hunting this game. He argued with Hiraki for like 15 posts and then started screaming that I was scum after the hammer; He barely commented on anyone else. He tried to pressure Transcend into shooting me even though he was being scumread by all of the active players at the time.

Anyway, take your time with this, ask more questions if you need to.

I will analyse this.

It is clear from the ISO that SS and Hiraki were attacking each other. SS never voted Hiraki, though, so perhaps they got the impression that they could safely pressure SS but if they pressure Hiraki then Hiraki would get lynched.

SS perhaps thought that pushing Hiraki (without actually voting) would garner Towncred if Hiraki flipped scum, as SS would seem unlikely to push Hiraki if they were the scum team. However, in actual fact SS never voted Hiraki so this would be a safe move as scum.

While SS did push a known scum, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum. Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

However, this seems slightly suspicious. If you are scum, which is certainly possible, this seems like you are trying to manipulate me to vote SS and thus win the game. It is still more likely that you are Town, but I won't stake the game on this just yet. We still have time.

SS seems more likely scum, but I will take my time instead of voting instantly. If I vote and am wrong, scum wins immediately.

[Something_Smart]

I'm going to try to explain my point of view as clearly as I can without getting pissed.

This is all @BTD6. (I do still want Draynth to follow the last sentence of 135.)

First things first. It was clear that I was not ready for the day to end. I never voted once, and I never professed any strong scumreads. When Draynth quickhammered, I rushed to get in all the thoughts I felt were relevant for the immediate event, assuming that the game was not over. If it was, awesome; but if it wasn't then the path to victory had just gotten much harder. Which is why I felt (and still feel) Draynth should have been vengekilled for making such an anti-town action.

Now, the one person I interacted substantially with was Hiraki. I did so over the course of most of the day, mostly relating to his one comment that discredited Transcend's townread on me. "Flimsy" is not the word I would use to describe it-- I'd call it "petty" or "minor". Because it was minor; the game had lasted 5 pages and I didn't even scumread it strongly enough to vote. I got to this point in BTD6's reasoning in 153 and I mostly understood where you were coming from. Then you suddenly made two assumptions with no logical basis, and for no reason that I can see other than confirmation bias:

While SS did push a known scum, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum.

The second sentence does not follow from the first. The missing piece is that you are assuming that there were other more serious things that I could have pushed on, and that I picked out Hiraki's because I wanted to push Hiraki specifically. This assumption is wrong; Hiraki's post and subsequent response when I called him out on it, were the scummiest things of the game which was at that point on page 2.

Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

I could raise issues with your claiming to know all about scum's strategy 100% of the time, but the problem here is even simpler: why do you still not think Hiraki's discrediting of Transcend's townread on me was scummy, even after knowing it came from flipped scum? And you had better not mention anything about my alignment in your answer.

Finally, I want to take a step back and look at your argument as a whole. First, it's inconsistent. You're faulting me extensively for my interactions with Hiraki without even so much as briefly commenting on Draynth's interactions with him. And the interactions that you are scumreading served to put me and Hiraki into the spotlight of the game. I reiterate this, and you're free to debate it if you want--

If Transcend had not selfvoted, the lynch would have likely gone on either me or Hiraki.

Which means that as scum, our argument is essentially a lose-lose; if enough townies take either side, we lose. The only way to win is to count on a townie doing something attention-distracting to draw the lynch. And even in that case, this scenario implies that while the two scum were fighting, all three townies ignored them and piled on a town wagon. Sure, it could happen. But it should at least be enough to reevaluate, something which you don't seem to be doing.

[Tenshii]

Removed votecount

[BTD6_maker]

I'm going to try to explain my point of view as clearly as I can without getting pissed.

This is all @BTD6. (I do still want Draynth to follow the last sentence of 135.)

First things first. It was clear that I was not ready for the day to end. I never voted once, and I never professed any strong scumreads. When Draynth quickhammered, I rushed to get in all the thoughts I felt were relevant for the immediate event, assuming that the game was not over. If it was, awesome; but if it wasn't then the path to victory had just gotten much harder. Which is why I felt (and still feel) Draynth should have been vengekilled for making such an anti-town action.

Now, the one person I interacted substantially with was Hiraki. I did so over the course of most of the day, mostly relating to his one comment that discredited Transcend's townread on me. "Flimsy" is not the word I would use to describe it-- I'd call it "petty" or "minor". Because it was minor; the game had lasted 5 pages and I didn't even scumread it strongly enough to vote. I got to this point in BTD6's reasoning in 153 and I mostly understood where you were coming from. Then you suddenly made two assumptions with no logical basis, and for no reason that I can see other than confirmation bias:

While SS did push a known scum, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum.

The second sentence does not follow from the first. The missing piece is that you are assuming that there were other more serious things that I could have pushed on, and that I picked out Hiraki's because I wanted to push Hiraki specifically. This assumption is wrong; Hiraki's post and subsequent response when I called him out on it, were the scummiest things of the game which was at that point on page 2.

Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

I could raise issues with your claiming to know all about scum's strategy 100% of the time, but the problem here is even simpler: why do you still not think Hiraki's discrediting of Transcend's townread on me was scummy, even after knowing it came from flipped scum? And you had better not mention anything about my alignment in your answer.

Finally, I want to take a step back and look at your argument as a whole. First, it's inconsistent. You're faulting me extensively for my interactions with Hiraki without even so much as briefly commenting on Draynth's interactions with him. And the interactions that you are scumreading served to put me and Hiraki into the spotlight of the game. I reiterate this, and you're free to debate it if you want--

If Transcend had not selfvoted, the lynch would have likely gone on either me or Hiraki.

Which means that as scum, our argument is essentially a lose-lose; if enough townies take either side, we lose. The only way to win is to count on a townie doing something attention-distracting to draw the lynch. And even in that case, this scenario implies that while the two scum were fighting, all three townies ignored them and piled on a town wagon. Sure, it could happen. But it should at least be enough to reevaluate, something which you don't seem to be doing.

I will look at this carefully in more detail later.

Either way, I was previously looking at Draynth's case and checking to see if it held up. In checking Draynth's case, I did an ISO search of you and Hiraki, and thereby missed Draynth's interactions. Perhaps I was also thinking a lot about "scum could be planning this", which is true (they could be planning this, but it may still be a rather low chance). I suppose there is bound to be at least some confirmation bias when ISOing you and Hiraki as opposed to everyone.

At the moment, this looks like a Town-motivated post, trying to point out the flaws in the reasoning. It seems slightly more likely now that Draynth has been manipulating me into voting you, but I will analyse this later in more detail.

[Draynth]

This is all @BTD6. (I do still want Draynth to follow the last sentence of 135.)

I'm just going to assume both of you can find the quote above, I don't think I need to requote it.
You're right. I'm an emotional player who regularly makes rash decisions / statements when I would be better served taking my time and mulling things over. I said this when I was '100% convinced' (See quotation marks for sarcasm) that you were scum. The reason I didn't want to vote you just yet (and the reason why I quickly unvoted you a few posts later) is in case BTD is the scum and is just playing it well and letting our argument take the spotlight.

First things first. It was clear that I was not ready for the day to end. I never voted once, and I never professed any strong scumreads. When Draynth quickhammered, I rushed to get in all the thoughts I felt were relevant for the immediate event, assuming that the game was not over. If it was, awesome; but if it wasn't then the path to victory had just gotten much harder. Which is why I felt (and still feel) Draynth should have been vengekilled for making such an anti-town action.

Fair enough, from my point of view it simply looked like you were trying to get me vengekilled to win the game outright(as scum)

While SS did push a known scum

, they seemed to have flimsy reasoning. This seems like SS looked specifically for reasons to push Hiraki which could easily have been faked by scum.

The second sentence does not follow from the first. The missing piece is that you are assuming that there were other more serious things that I could have pushed on, and that I picked out Hiraki's because I wanted to push Hiraki specifically. This assumption is wrong; Hiraki's post and subsequent response when I called him out on it, were the scummiest things of the game which was at that point on page 2.

The bolded strikes me as odd.
Hiraki was being scumread, sure, but he was far from being 'known scum' in my book.
Ultimately my issue with the whole situation was that you focused primarily on Hiraki without commenting on anyone else. This is a problem. The fact that Hiraki ended up flipping town makes me wary though. It means you either hit a 1/2 chance of the person you're arguing with being scum, or you / Hiraki are the scum pair and it was planned. Having never played a small game like this before I don't know which is more likely.

Scum would probably not plan on doing something genuinely scummy, as then Townies may be likely to notice and lynch Hiraki. Thus SS would be looking to jump on things which aren't genuinely scummy but were planned.

I could raise issues with your claiming to know all about scum's strategy 100% of the time, but the problem here is even simpler: why do you still not think Hiraki's discrediting of Transcend's townread on me was scummy, even after knowing it came from flipped scum? And you had better not mention anything about my alignment in your answer.

Finally, I want to take a step back and look at your argument as a whole. First, it's inconsistent. You're faulting me extensively for my interactions with Hiraki without even so much as briefly commenting on Draynth's interactions with him. And the interactions that you are scumreading served to put me and Hiraki into the spotlight of the game. I reiterate this, and you're free to debate it if you want--

If Transcend had not selfvoted, the lynch would have likely gone on either me or Hiraki.

Which means that as scum, our argument is essentially a lose-lose; if enough townies take either side, we lose. The only way to win is to count on a townie doing something attention-distracting to draw the lynch. And even in that case, this scenario implies that while the two scum were fighting, all three townies ignored them and piled on a town wagon. Sure, it could happen. But it should at least be enough to reevaluate, something which you don't seem to be doing.

Hmm, I like this last paragraph.
Now I really don't know what to think.

[Draynth]

At the moment, this looks like a Town-motivated post, trying to point out the flaws in the reasoning. It seems slightly more likely now that Draynth has been manipulating me into voting you, but I will analyse this later in more detail.

Manipulating? Gimme a break. One of the main objectives of this game is to convince others that your reads are correct and try to get them to follow you. Call it that if you want, it's nothing close to manipulation.

[Something_Smart]

Ultimately my issue with the whole situation was that you focused primarily on Hiraki without commenting on anyone else. This is a problem. The fact that Hiraki ended up flipping town makes me wary though. It means you either hit a 1/2 chance of the person you're arguing with being scum, or you / Hiraki are the scum pair and it was planned. Having never played a small game like this before I don't know which is more likely.

I mean, this is explained fairly well in the first large paragraph of 154. I focused on Hiraki because that was something that I thought I could get a read off of if I pushed it-- which I did, albeit fairly weak. I hadn't gotten around to interacting with the others, though I would probably have primarily focused on BTD6 given that I had a townread on you and I have enough experience with Transcend to know not to interrogate him like I did to Hiraki. I kept my thoughts on the others mostly to myself because I didn't see a reason to share them, and they were rapidly changing. (I waffled between thinking Transcend was town and scum a lot.)

I think the logic in the last paragraph of 154 is more relevant; putting myself out there like that is insanely dangerous, and not in the way I would do. If I did want to distance with Hiraki, I'd probably do the opposite, making a weak case on him and voting him but not pushing super hard.

[Draynth]

Ultimately my issue with the whole situation was that you focused primarily on Hiraki without commenting on anyone else. This is a problem.

The fact that Hiraki ended up flipping town makes me wary

though. It means you either hit a 1/2 chance of the person you're arguing with being scum, or you / Hiraki are the scum pair and it was planned. Having never played a small game like this before I don't know which is more likely.

EBWOP: Bolded should read '

The fact that Hiraki ended up flipping

scum

makes me wary...

'

[Draynth]

The thing that is bothering me currently about BTD is the fact that he hasn't really commit to anything; the only time he has voted was for Transcend, and look how that turned out. He's just been dropping in every now and then to 'analyse' content, but so far he has hardly done anything with this analysis. I don't know whether this is due to his low posting style (Transcend confirmed this) or he is scum trying to fly under the radar

[Something_Smart]

Do you think I've committed to more than BTD6 has?

[BTD6_maker]

The thing that is bothering me currently about BTD is the fact that he hasn't really commit to anything; the only time he has voted was for Transcend, and look how that turned out. He's just been dropping in every now and then to 'analyse' content, but so far he has hardly done anything with this analysis. I don't know whether this is due to his low posting style (Transcend confirmed this) or he is scum trying to fly under the radar

Right now, I am indeed analysing content, but I am not committing to a vote. This is simply because it is LyLo. I have explained my reads (I think SS is scummier, but you could still be scum) but I will not vote because it will lose the game instantly if I am wrong.

At the moment, this looks like a Town-motivated post, trying to point out the flaws in the reasoning. It seems slightly more likely now that Draynth has been manipulating me into voting you, but I will analyse this later in more detail.

Manipulating? Gimme a break. One of the main objectives of this game is to convince others that your reads are correct and try to get them to follow you. Call it that if you want, it's nothing close to manipulation.

I can understand what you mean by this.

If you are Town, you are trying to convince me about SS. If you are scum, you are manipulating me. What you are doing can be either, and a large part of what people do in a Mafia game could be either. What I need to do is to see which one is more likely. I am leaning towards you being Town, but I am not certain of this.

[Something_Smart]

Decided to reread because this game is going nowhere fast and I feel like a vote needs to be put down soon so something can happen.

This post contains analysis that is only valid from my POV and that's intentional as it's just a braindump of my thoughts so I can come to a decision and not intended to convince.

On page 1 I already found two things that point to Draynth lol

well in the last edition of this i was lynched d1 and took a shot at the scum outside of the scum who quickhammered me.

just makes me think that he might have tried the same thing again and expected Draynth to get lynched.

i tr you both

how do you TR Something??? draynath i get but something???

well that settles it then, BTD and Hiraki are confirmed scum

o-o-o-o-oh uhh-uhh-uhh o-o-o-oo-oh no....fuck BTD...h-h-h-h-how w-w-w-were we cau-u-ught so q-quickly? h-h-h-have I fa-fa-failed you???

I TR Draynth btw, no chance in hell I'm OK with that lynch for post 8; could've easily done that and left

And this doesn't feel like the reaction of scum whose scumteam was actually just named, I feel like he'd be more serious if he actually saw the need to change Transcend's mind.

he isn't town

caught, gg btd, we tried so hard :'(

Are you going to explain how you TR Something then?

This too.

Page 2 Draynth defends Hiraki, BTD tries to pair Transcend and me (both town) as scum.

Draynth asks BTD6 for reads on me (town) and Hiraki (scum), BTD6 scumleans me and townleans Hiraki. Both of these are possible partner interactions. Draynth questions my scumread on Hiraki some more.

@Hiraki what do you think of the suspicion against you, and who do you think are the scum?

gives me shivers

69 is more soft defending of Hiraki by Draynth

Reading page 3, the juxtaposition of my conversation with Hiraki and Draynth's conversation with Hiraki is very interesting. Hiraki responded to me with maximum discrediting, but he seemed reasoned and distant when talking to Draynth. I realize that he was trying to mislynch me, but the whole tone of that conversation feels a bit faked. (And yeah I realize I'm confbiased because I want Draynth to be scum pretty badly here. But I'm doing what I can.)

Also 74-75, Hiraki made a snippy response that misunderstood Draynth, it's an interaction that certainly doesn't stand out as TvS, I don't know if it is particularly SvS but it very well could be.

Also in 76 Hiraki responds to Transcend's scumread on him and once again goes into discredit-mode. He never goes into discredit-mode with Draynth, even though Draynth was implying a scumread on him too...

108 - Draynth scumreads Hiraki for something that's lazy and not really true (not scumhunting), rather than the legitimate reasons that I've given. Red flag.

Draynth throws shade on me for throwing shade on him which is reasonable, the only thing I don't like about this part is that he doesn't really share or even understand the mindset of "Transcend scum = game over" like I did.

Not really looking at Day 2 in as much detail because interactions are primarily what I was looking for. But honestly I'm willing to trust Transcend's BTD6 meta and I know that BTD6 has a scummy sounding tone usually.

I'm intending to vote Draynth, but I just want to make myself feel a bit better about BTD6 first (because I feel like BTD6 could easily be either alignment here).

[Draynth]

Alright whatever, I've read this game again twice now and I still have no idea who the last scum is.
I'm a terrible late game town player, I'm just going to trust Transcend.

VOTE: Something_Smart

The above post reeks of confbias and I have no idea how to read BTD

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Something_Smart

If BTD is actually scum here then I'm gonna be so sad

You're gonna be so sad.

[Draynth]

wp

[Something_Smart]

Confbias is a towntell...

[Something_Smart]

Pro tip Draynth: don't quickhammer townies.
Also I never voted the whole game lol

[Draynth]

Confbias is a towntell...

I strongly disagree

[Something_Smart]

I mean, genuine confbias means your thoughts were genuine.

Also, look at the one person who kept their options open in this LYLO.

[BTD6_maker]

This was a fun game.

i tr you both

zzz

well that settles it then, BTD and Hiraki are confirmed scum

[Transcend]

one of these days i'll read you correctly

[BTD6_maker]

By the way, I suggested the "pairing method". This was developed by MastermindOfSin and you can see it on the wiki page for Vengeful.

I did my own analysis and found that the pairing method gives no advantage to Town but, even assuming that the Towniest person gets to make pairs, is strictly worse than "lynch scummiest who shoots second scummiest". However, it certainly sounds like something which benefits Town, and I predicted that Town would all think it works, given that the person proposing pairs is Town. You even thought that this plan was like my Surreptitious plan, which genuinely helped Town (although that game was broken).

Getting Draynth to make pairs was interesting. If Draynth accepted, I knew Town probably wouldn't follow it anyway, even if the pairs would hurt scum. If Draynth refused, I could use this to Townread and essentially buddy them while maintaining a healthy amount of Townish suspicion.

I think I played the LyLo well. Both Draynth and SS were scumreading the other before me.