Micro 741: Reverse Mafia (mafia win)

[serrapaladin]

I think posts like #168 are fair evidence of being disengaged (mentioning things like Dunker "not self-hammering" implies that she's only casually been skimming the game, as Dunker never had an opportunity to self-hammer, and there was only a half-hour window in which Dunker could have selfhammered even if the vote count were correct). Likewise, #314 is clear evidence of not having read/remembered #169.

That's fair, although I think motivation is more relevant here than attention. Scum!brie can have missed nuances like the time dunker had to self-hammer, while still being fully aware of the fact that her chances are looking pretty badly and wanting to win the game as scum, and I would say from her reaction she did sufficiently engage with my posts and didn't come to the conclusion I would expect of scum.

[Carcalilly]

OH LMAO I SEE NOW

[serrapaladin]

Ugh

[Dunkerdoodles]

Carcalilly's at L-2 at the moment. If you want to L-1 her, you can.

i wasn't sure if we were ready for a lynch yet so i didn't vote
i've also said multiple times the person i want in lylo is between (cfj, carc, brie). i townread lilly, but there's obviously still a chance she's scum.

[Dunkerdoodles]

i'm also still waiting for someone, anyone to comment on my self case

[Dunkerdoodles]

But to answer the broader question you're asking (and that I somehow missed first time): it does indeed make TheBrie look townier than it would otherwise. If she is scum, she's probably fairly disengaged from the game (maybe somewhat resigned, too, which would explain the relative lack of posting even post-V/LA). Dunker has been acting scummiest over the last few pages, so at least one of the "top two" scum seems fairly fixed.

@

TheBrie

: Would you be willing to put Carcalilly to L-1? I'm interested in your reasoning here, in addition to the yes-or-no of your answer.

Right I should probably also spell this out so more people comment on it, because it actually has me moving away from leaving brie.

So my previous "town has no reason to misrepresent their opinion" comes with a massive asterisk, namely what some people call 'reaction tests' and I just think of as active play. As you get further into the game and have some idea of what you think the game state is, this should allow you to start making predictions about how players would react to specific claims and questions given their alignment. Here, I asked brie to consider an argument for a potential scum!CFJ (which I do think is a reasonable point, although it doesn't on its own make CFJ scum). Having in mind that scum!brie really needs to start finding a second target to be kept alive, which is not as true for town!brie with a legitimate belief that dunker is scum, I expected the former to rather quickly warm to the idea of CFJ being scum.

As to CFJ's point, I don't think she has been that disengaged, and given that it's only really CFJ and me that have given reasons for scumreading her (more on that later), if she can support my push for the theory of scum!CFJ faking a scumread on brie, things are starting to look pretty good for scum!brie. Even if she was apathetic before then, I could see that as being encouraging.

CFJ's interpretation that scum!brie got what was going on is certainly possible, which would also mean she's posting things like

The more I look at it, the more I am inclined to think it's dunker and I don't need to worry about the two of us being felt till last.

in order to get townread for it, but to me that is a less likely interpretation, as it makes it harder to change course later, and my feeling is we're not too far off locking down our course of action in terms of lynch order (or at least whom we're leaving).

I'd appreciate comments by everyone intent on leaving brie on their interpretation of the above.

@dunker: besides it being popular sentiment, can you explain why you posted this:

can we all agree that we're leaving brie no matter what

because again, as far as I can tell dunker has never really said why he thinks brie is scum, or even acknowledged which arguments he finds particularly convincing.

A slight problem I have is that there is a flavour of lynchbait bad town who do play somewhat like dunker here, just flitting from popular wagon to popular wagon without much thought, so while dunker does strike me as the most scummy, I'm far from certain it's actually him, so I do want to make sure to put a good amount of thought into who should be second person left.

it was unanimous at that point brie was being left. I don't think anyone was against it, so i thought we we're just trying to sort out the other person. i was trying to say why i was town so we'd have better chances because i know i'm town, but appearantly no one was listening or no one cared :/ i already how much easier this game gets when you lynch me and i flip town, since i seem to be the main in between guy.

[Dunkerdoodles]

mario's also pinging me, do we think scum would hard-scumread each other early game?
mario seems really eager to get lynched, even if he is townread by us

[serrapaladin]

God you're scummy.

[callforjudgement]

Carcalilly's at L-2 at the moment. If you want to L-1 her, you can.

i wasn't sure if we were ready for a lynch yet so i didn't vote
i've also said multiple times the person i want in lylo is between (cfj, carc, brie). i townread lilly, but there's obviously still a chance she's scum.

You still can!

Let me put it this way: we're going to be leaving two people alive, you're probably one of them. If Lilly isn't near the top of your scumreads, it's much more likely (from your point of view) that she's town rather than that she's scum (given that several people have a

higher

chance of being scum). Not everyone agrees with this viewpoint, though. So lynching her now greatly increases the chance of one of your higher scumreads being the player who's stranded (and a townflip in general is very helpful to town).

If you aren't lynching her, then that implies that a) you consider her to be one of the

top possibilities

for scum, or b) that you're scum yourself. We can't leave everyone alive simply on the basis that they could be scum; we're going to have to lynch townies sometime. And lynching someone who you think is more likely town than the average unsorted player, but for whom much of the playerlist is sceptical, is one of the best ways to increase town's win chances by getting people who are more likely scum into the final two.

[serrapaladin]

since i seem to be the main in between guy

Do you for real believe this?

[Dunkerdoodles]

since i seem to be the main in between guy

Do you for real believe this?

?

[Dunkerdoodles]

Carcalilly's at L-2 at the moment. If you want to L-1 her, you can.

i wasn't sure if we were ready for a lynch yet so i didn't vote
i've also said multiple times the person i want in lylo is between (cfj, carc, brie). i townread lilly, but there's obviously still a chance she's scum.

You still can!

Let me put it this way: we're going to be leaving two people alive, you're probably one of them. If Lilly isn't near the top of your scumreads, it's much more likely (from your point of view) that she's town rather than that she's scum (given that several people have a

higher

chance of being scum). Not everyone agrees with this viewpoint, though. So lynching her now greatly increases the chance of one of your higher scumreads being the player who's stranded (and a townflip in general is very helpful to town).

If you aren't lynching her, then that implies that a) you consider her to be one of the

top possibilities

for scum, or b) that you're scum yourself. We can't leave everyone alive simply on the basis that they could be scum; we're going to have to lynch townies sometime. And lynching someone who you think is more likely town than the average unsorted player, but for whom much of the playerlist is sceptical, is one of the best ways to increase town's win chances by getting people who are more likely scum into the final two.

alright then
i was just making sure we we're ok with it
VOTE: lilly

[callforjudgement]

Given that the mod doesn't seem to be around: I'll just point out for the record that this is L-1 (me, Mario, Dunker).

[Carcalilly]

Dunker??? I think they're town.

[Carcalilly]

VOTE: carcalilly

Then self hammer?
I'm town guys, don't worry.

[Carcalilly]

serra should seriously be lynched one day or another
they look obvtown

[serrapaladin]

since i seem to be the main in between guy

Do you for real believe this?

?

Do you actually believe that people are unsure about you, rather than that you're the number 1 scum read?

[serrapaladin]

Also if there are no deadlines or nights, can we just self-mod this? :/ waiting for a flip is lame

[MarioManiac4]

glad to see project chainlynch is going well

[serrapaladin]

I'm disturbed everyone is so keen to get lynched. 6/8 people will be lynched, so just making sure you're one of them really isn't doing your part...

[serrapaladin]

Cfj, what's your read of dunkers vote and potential slight at Mario?

[callforjudgement]

If Dunker hadn't voted Lilly just then, and hadn't given a strong set of revised reads with reasoning, I'd have said that the slot was basically 100% scum.
The vote keeps open the possibility that Dunker is town, but he's still looking independently scummy enough (and was reluctant enough to make it) that I nonetheless still read him as the most likely scum.

The read on Mario would make a lot of sense from scum – whoever the remaining scum is badly needs us to find

two

possible scum candidates besides themself to have any chance of winning, and (assuming Lilly is town, as if she isn't the game's over) the Lilly lynch makes that much harder for them – but could also plausibly come from town, especially if it's accompanied by good reasoning. (The reasoning so far is pretty perfunctory and could be read as playstyle, but could also be read as wishful thinking.) I think it makes Dunker seem mildly scummier, but isn't hugely strong evidence (especially as he was looking scummy already).

[callforjudgement]

Just noting for the record that I've contacted the listmods (specifically singersigner, who's in charge of the Micro queue at the moment) to try to get the moderation of this game sorted out; letting ASP not post for 11 days is ridiculous, failing to flip Carcalilly for over 24 hours is problematic, and the moderator hasn't responded to a PM for over 24 hours after failing to post for over 48 hours (i.e. the stated condition that this game uses for being replaced).

[MarioManiac4]

If you disagree with leaving Dunkerdoodles and TheBrie alive and you are not Dunkerdoodles/TheBrie objecting to your own inclusion, please speak up now.

[callforjudgement]

If Dunker wants to make a case for lynching TheBrie over you (and it sounds like he does), I'd be willing at least to listen to it. I'm not currently planning a different strategy, but I'm also not fixing my viewpoints in stone just yet.