Micro 744 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

[Elliberetta]

geting fucked by work will need to wait until tonight sorry

[Elliberetta]

Okay I'm have some time
Let me do the response to Luca's thing

Tywin, I was the one who took the initiative today while Eli was on the fence between us, and yet after I vote you she suddenly has all these reasons I must be scum - why didn't she state them earlier?

This point is really silly. Most of the points that I summarize in post 216 I HAVE already pointed out earlier today in different forms. You can go back through my posts and confirm this. Of course I'm more confident they are reality now after Luca is confirmed to be scum! Earlier today I was clearly probing Luca but I had a lot of reasons to be paranoid of you. But now that you are confirmed and that I know Luca is scum. I can summarize all the points I had against him and know that they were true. Which is what I did.

Because she didn't want to 1v1 vs you or me - she wanted to be open to lyniching either of us. If I was scum, I would have probably have seen you as the easier target as you're the more inexperienced player - I wouldn't have deliberately put myself 1v1 against the more experienced player. On that note - don't be fooled by her join date: she alt slipped earlier and has been playing on here since 2009. I put myself 1v1 against her as I genuinely believed she was scum, and I was right.

This is also silly. I think Luca was planning on going after you first but I came in with a lot more doubts about him than he expected. As a matter of fact other than me commenting on you doing the night kill analysis wrong I've mainly been probing him. Him going into a 1v1 with you would have been silly regardless of experience when I was clearly showing I had plenty of reasons to think that he was scum. On the contrary going into a 1v1 with me and trying to convince the less experienced you who hadn't said a lot yet is obviously better and more in line with his scum strategy. And on the alt-slip (which shouldn't even matter by the way) I haven't even tried to hide it since it happened. As a matter of fact I made it fairly easy with the username and avatar of the accounts!

Look at how Eli played today - she didn't want to commit herself; she was hoping one of us would vote the other so she could easily hammer. Why would I 1v1 her as scum when she was clearly still suspecting you? It makes no sense.

Of course I didn't want commit myself too soon! If I commit myself and I'm wrong I lose! Honestly before Luca went off and voted me and you confirmed yourself I was in my head thinking it was slightly more likely to be Luca but still not totally sure. As I said earlier I was super put off by how bad his points against me have been given that today is Lylo. And to his last point of why he would choose me to go 1v1 with instead of you I addressed in the previous section. Why would he go 1v1 with you when I had been questioning him the entire day? Of course he would choose me!

I'll address the second half of his post in a seperate post.

[Elliberetta]

I have a phone call I need to take and in case it takes longer than expected also note this:

Look at how he only attempted to respond to point b) of the three points I made against him! I think it's because he can't come up with a good response against the other two and he can at least try to make up some sort of faked town motivation for his voting behavior. (On that note: Don't forget about points a) and c)!) Even then he didn't address this part of my point b) about him which is very important and I'll requote it:

First of all, note how he first defends against it in 183. Ignores my follow up about it in 189. And then finally later decides to use it as a negative point against me.

It's actually funny how he accused me of suddenly having sudden new reasons to think he's scum when I've been the one that's been probing him for whole day with what I've been accusing him of and he's the one that switched to have the new reasons at the end. Its probably because he realized that using this voting argument and trying to skew your point of view about it is his best shot.

I'll be back in a bit to actually do the second half of his post.

[Elliberetta]

Tywin, we both thought vax was scum and we both voted for him. Eli heavily scumread him but had more reason to be cautious as she knew there was only one other scum. Remember it was more important for scum to lynch scum on d1 because if she was targeted at night it would be game over for her regardless of her night actions.

I'm just to start with this since it's easy to refute and actually helped me realize something really really important.

First of all it's important for TOWN to lynch scum d1. While I obviously had scum reads on HS and Vax I still find it incredible that trying to ask more questions and push as much out of them as I could to figure out more and make sure my reads are right is what he's calling scummy.

And here's the thing important thing I realized. I thought about what Luca said about scum wanting to lynch the other scum. I actually now think that Luca prefered to lynch town and here's why:

If scum is lynched D1 there is no nights anymore and it becomes 3 vs. 1. The scum player has to mislynch town twice to win the game.

If town is lynched D1, there is a night. Luca is trying to drive the point that this is bad for scum because the scum might get shot but let's think about it from Luca's perspective in this particular game.

He thought Vax was the other scum and from Vax's posts that its very likely he would shoot me or you

.
This is actually huge.
Because a Luca who thinks Vax is the other scum doesn't really have to worry about getting shot at night, and can comfortably shoot Vax!!
This results in a 2v1 where he only has to get one more mislynch to win the game, which is where we're at.

This totally explains Luca's behavior.
He was pretty certain that Vax was scum from the slip and wanted to immideately go for it.
He stepped back and realized that maybe that may look scummy and that furthermore that he was reading really town so he was unlikely to get shot.
I put out a case against HS and Luca followed on with that instead while probably internally thinking that it was more likely for Vax to be the scum.
At night Luca shoots Vax confident that Vax isn't shooting him.
And now we're here!

[Elliberetta]

I'm actually proud of myself for seeing that one.
It completely refutes all his remaining arguments about how he acted D1 and makes things really obvious.

So just so summarize:

Look at how the whole game makes sense with Lucascum, from the post I just gave about what happened D1, to the 3 points I gave earlier that reflected mostly on what he's been doing today.

His arguments about me are just trying to paint some things I did that had a clear town motivation as being scummy. He can't construct an overarching narrative of me being scum because there isn't one. He can't refute most of the points about him being scum because he is!

I think that's basically everything? If I think of anything else or you need a clarification on something lemme know, but honestly I think it should be fairly clear by this point.
You got this!

[Luca Blight]

As I mentioned, I have very limited access and little time to do more than even skim Eli's recent arguments, hence why I can't respond to every little point as I usually would.

I will just pick out the most bullshit thing that she wrote, though - she said she's been probing me all day and that's why I had to go 1v1 with her - this is a complete lie. She was completely on the fence between me and Tywin and I had no reason to go 1v1 with her unless I genuinely believed he is scum. Eli was clearly more siding towards Tywin earlier - the only thing she had against me was the nk likelihood thing which is wrong as either you or her could have been targeted by vax.

Tywin, just look at my posts in the lead up to my vote on Eli. Ask yourself what my motivation is. Don't let her wall posts confuse you - she is an experienced player and knows how to manipulate. I had to reason to act as I did today if I was scum - that's the thing you must see Tywin, and if you see it you will realise that I'm town.

I wish I could post walls in reponse to Eli but it's impossible because I have no time. Just please try to see the motivation behind my play today, Tywin. I could easily have kept the option of lynching you open but I didn't.

[TywinL]

Okay, I ISO'ed both of you. So, I promise you guys that I am not just hammering for the sake of ending the game. I am really sorry in advance if I'm wrong. Honestly, I am still not 100% sure but that's not gonna change. I think looking at the night kill analysis (I also looked at Vax's ISO) is the best bet here.

VOTE: Luca

So sorry if you are town, Luca.

[TywinL]

For the record, I sat on the editing screen for 10 minutes before hitting Submit.

[TywinL]

Elli, were you scum??

[Luca Blight]

I was town.

[TywinL]

God damnit. Why wouldn't Vax shoot you? It makes most sense from Vax's POV.

[TywinL]

I'm so sorry.

[Luca Blight]

I think you really misunderstood the nk thing, Tywin.

[TywinL]

Wouldn't scum want to eliminate the other scum?

[Luca Blight]

Yes, but vax could equally have shot you or Eli as I repeatedly said. His view on the two of you was very similar.

Anyway, wp Eli.

[Luca Blight]

As scum I really would never have deliberately made myself 1v1 against Eli in this situation where all three of us where on the fence - this is why I was directing you to consider the motivation behind my play on day 2.

[BTD6_maker]

Day 2 VC 3

Luca Blight: Elliberetta, TywinL -

LYNCH

Elliberetta: Luca Blight

Not Voting:

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-10-17 16:30:00)

Apologies for not posting a VC. I was V/LA.

With 3 players, it's 2 to lynch!

[BTD6_maker]

Luca Blight was lynched!

Spoiler: Luca Blight Role PM

Vanilla Townie

Welcome, Luca Blight. You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

You have no special abilities.

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

The game thread is here.

Please confirm your role by replying with your role name.

Elliberetta,

Mafia Goon

, has won!

TywinL,

Vanilla Townie

, has been endgamed!

[Vaxkiller]

GG, I played pretty bad!

[Vaxkiller]

I was thinking of shooting Tywin last night, but Elib (I think it was elib) but the bug in my ear that if Luca was scum he was playing an AMAZING game... and I just kept thinking about that and tried to NK there.

So ultimately I was 100% wrong! Which is also the only math I got right this game.

I'm 96.345% sure I would have fucked up my math in the same way as a townie too, I think I was on auto pilot when typing that and I royally fucked it up.

[chesskid3]

gj Ellibereta

[Elliberetta]

gg

was a close one

[BTD6_maker]

Mod thread

There were no other PTs.

[Luca Blight]

Very ironic that after all the NK analysis on D2 I fact turned out to be Vax's NK!

[shos]

Oh haaaaay there, small multiballs are my turf

Does this actually count, considering there was no scum team effectively? I mean 3T vs 2 SKs is hmmm