Micro 747: Setup UPick Mafia

[Flubbernugget]

North, that is an extremely dishonest interpretation of my 78, especially since I had a non rvs reason for my vote on Fenraiser in 70.

[GuiltyLion]

Is this (activity rate) indicative of caught scum D1, or scum on the wagon who want it to just tip over for an easy lynch? Still thinking the first, but I'm looking for thoughts from people who've seen this kind of thing before- since I haven't seen a wagon that started in RVS hang like this for so long.

I'm not speaking from past experience, and I'm not sure if the inactivity says anything about the alignment of the inactive players, but one thing I have been thinking about is that Fenraiser doesn't seem all that worried about getting lynched as we head to deadline. Neither of his main pushes have gotten any traction and there's not much talk/drive for a counterwagon. I think this may be indicative of town!Fenraiser, I don't know if scum!Fenraiser (or his potential buddy) would have let so many days go by without fighting harder or looking for some kind of alternative wagon to gain support.

[GuiltyLion]

if you'll look at fen's indications of how frustrated he is about being suspected for the setup choice i think

it's entirely plausible to read scum angry at being caught for something so minor in there. also, slight scumread on flubber for the awkward rvs vote discussion

.

if you'll look at fen's indications of how frustrated he is about being suspected for the setup choice i think it's entirely plausible to read scum angry at being caught for something so minor in there. also, slight scumread on flubber for the awkward rvs vote discussion.

What about the rvs vote discussion was awkward? Also, how does it lead to a slight scumread?

from what i understand i'm expressing the same opinion that you are: it feels like flubber was dodging the question of why he initially voted you, and that seems slightly suspicious. the entire interaction from 78 to 87 is of interest. like, take a look at 78:

Okay so I'm being grilled on an rvs vote now

I've seen it all

is that so unusual to you? i don't think i've ever been in or read a game where someone

wasn't

questioned about their behavior during rvs. i mean, it's basically what transitions the game out of rvs in the first place.

so why is flubber expressing such a disbelief here? is it some kind of discrediting or attempt to steer the conversation away from a topic he doesn't want to talk about? might be a stretch, but it's worth looking at anyways.

at the same time i'd like to note that i don't scumread flubber for his rvs vote - at worst it's null, and there's nothing wrong with voting someone in rvs for mostly gut reasons or for a simple reason like the setup choice.

that's how you turn your gut reads into substatianted reasons as to someone being scum or town.

These highlighted bits feel scummy to me.

First, the "it's entirely plausible to see Fenraiser as scum" bit seems to be aimed at encouraging his wagon along without actually scumreading Fenraiser.

What is your current read on Fenraiser and why?

Second, what Flubber just pointed out about the disingenuous interpretation of his 78, which was clearly a response to 71. AND the extra care to point out that you're not actually scumreading flubber for the RVS vote, makes me think, what is the point of this whole 'slight scumread' and discussion to begin with? Do you think scum!Flubber is bussing his buddy scum!Fenraiser? I have a hard time believing that's what is going on (and a hard time thinking you have that belief either), so why make the first comment about Fen? Who is scummier between Fen and Flubber, and why haven't you gotten more involved in their 1v1, especially if you think Flubber is scummier of the two?

this might be scum northsidegal setting up for a day 2 scumread (Flubber) after the d1 mislynch (Fen)

I don't want Fenraiser at L-1 at the moment
UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Kop

his ISO is empty of any game-solving effort

also, on review this post is bad:

Yes he plays the same way in both alignments but yes I will make points

even if does appear that it's a easy target to go for.

why are worried about looking like you're going after easy targets? Shouldn't you be focused on finding who you think is scum?

My issue with your NM "opportunistic" callout was not because it was NM himself, it was because you were presenting a scumread on NM while also acknowledging that his play was entirely consistent/typical with how he always plays. It bothers me that you speak about him as if he's a lynch to go after and not as if he's an alignment to figure out.

[Aronis]

i'm sorry i failed you guys, no pagetop for this vc

Votecount 1.4

---------------------------------------------------------

BluBlake - [1] -

northsidegal

Not_Mafia - [1] -

Raya36

Flubbernugget - [2] -

BluBlake, Kop

Fenraiser - [3] -

Hopkirk, Not_Mafia, Flubbernugget

Hopkirk - [1] -

Fenraiser

Kop - [1] -

GuiltyLion

No Lynch - [0]

Not Voting - [0]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Mod Notes: Raya36, Kop, and GuiltyLion are all V/LA right now

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2017-10-25 16:09:05)

---------------------------------------------------------

Events

Day 0 Starts|Day 0 Ends
Day 1 Starts

[Aronis]

Will try to catch up later, fail, and put it off again

come on, you can do it, i have faith in you. don't flake on me

hey! i resent that prod, it wasn't even 24 hours since my last post and i was still watching the thread!

sorry, i was literally on the fence about whether or not to prod you and just decided why not, next time I won't

Sorry about not being on.

V/la until Tuesday

. Probably should have done this earlier.

Noted

[northsidegal]

These highlighted bits feel scummy to me.

First, the "it's entirely plausible to see Fenraiser as scum" bit seems to be aimed at encouraging his wagon along without actually scumreading Fenraiser. What is your current read on Fenraiser and why?

Second, what Flubber just pointed out about the disingenuous interpretation of his 78, which was clearly a response to 71. AND the extra care to point out that you're not actually scumreading flubber for the RVS vote, makes me think, what is the point of this whole 'slight scumread' and discussion to begin with? Do you think scum!Flubber is bussing his buddy scum!Fenraiser? I have a hard time believing that's what is going on (and a hard time thinking you have that belief either), so why make the first comment about Fen? Who is scummier between Fen and Flubber, and why haven't you gotten more involved in their 1v1, especially if you think Flubber is scummier of the two?

this might be scum northsidegal setting up for a day 2 scumread (Flubber) after the d1 mislynch (Fen)

I don't want Fenraiser at L-1 at the moment
UNVOTE:

like i said - i currently read fenraiser as scum angry at being focused for something so minor. scumread. i think he's cracking under the pressure and i don't really think a lot of the arguments he's been making hold up or make sense.

as for the purpose of the flubber comments, i point out strange or awkward behavior whenver i see it. it's just something i do, and it's gotten me this exact same reaction a lot. it's possible to independently think to people are scummy without necessicarily thinking they're scum partners, it just necessitates that you keep yourself willing to change your read. but to clarify, i scumread fenrasier more than flubber. both of you have said that i've misinterpreted his 71 so i would say it's likely that i probably missed some important context.

you're giving me a lot of credit there as some kind of mastermind if you think i'm setting something up for day two. i was really just trying to get the game moving. we've had a slow pace and it had been a while since i had said anything, so i wanted to comment on the current discussion.

hey! i resent that prod, it wasn't even 24 hours since my last post and i was still watching the thread!

sorry, i was literally on the fence about whether or not to prod you and just decided why not, next time I won't

it's fine really, i wasn't really that serious about being mad. if anything it reflects well on you as a mod to be poking all of your players for activity!

[Aronis]

I thought it reflected awful on me cause good mods design interesting games that players want to actively play so I don't have to do that

[GuiltyLion]

Does anyone else want to weigh in on the fact that activity is so slow and whether that's indicative of Fenraiser being caught scum?

[Flubbernugget]

I'd like to know why you think keeping Fenraiser off L1 would do any good for activity

[GuiltyLion]

well he's been at L-1 on and off the whole day and that didn't do anything for activity

was wondering if anyone else would step up and vote him or if I could get some movement on my Kop vote

[BluBlake]

Hey I'm super sorry I've been inactive. Weekends are generally busy for me and last weekend was especially busy. I'll have more time tonight, but I can answer some questions real quick.

Yeah, but Flubber has also said his read has since "evolved" into a real scumread due to Fenraiser's defense. What do you think about his 57 and 70?

The evolution seems to be flubber not liking fens argument against him. I don't think defending yourself and giving a reason to vote somebody else is a scummy thing to do in fens position.

Same question on 'random vote' I asked earlier.

I think of random votes as more of a dice roll. It might be accompanied by a joke or an extremely arbitrary reason that doesn't really mean anything.

[northsidegal]

Does anyone else want to weigh in on the fact that activity is so slow and whether that's indicative of Fenraiser being caught scum?

there's not much we can do other than theorize. assuming fen is scum, it's entirely possible that scum are actively lurking in an effort to have as little associatives with him as possible - if the lynch goes through then they make it to day 2 without bad associatives with flipped scum, and by avoiding bussing they can hopefully improve the odds that the wagon fizzles out and doesn't go anywhere. with that in, mind if the lynch does go through and fen flips scum it'd be a good idea to look at who avoided posting and perhaps skirted around the subject. of course, that's not a very original or particularly unique suggestion - analyzing who avoided a wagon on flipped scum is pretty much standard practice.

but like i said, it's all theory. people might have just been busy, or not known what to say. personally, i haven't been busy but i haven't felt like i've had a lot to contribute.

[Flubbernugget]

I typically don't expect scum to play as though they can afford to be lynched D1. If they're lurking its out of being bad at scum play imo.

Either way, there's 36 ish hours to deadline and only one viable wagon.

[northsidegal]

oh wow, didn't realize we were so close to deadline. if nothing extraordinary changes my mind i'm fine hammering fen in 24 hours or so.

[Hopkirk]

Is this (activity rate) indicative of caught scum D1, or scum on the wagon who want it to just tip over for an easy lynch? Still thinking the first, but I'm looking for thoughts from people who've seen this kind of thing before- since I haven't seen a wagon that started in RVS hang like this for so long.

I'm not speaking from past experience, and I'm not sure if the inactivity says anything about the alignment of the inactive players, but one thing I have been thinking about is that Fenraiser doesn't seem all that worried about getting lynched as we head to deadline. Neither of his main pushes have gotten any traction and there's not much talk/drive for a counterwagon. I think this may be indicative of town!Fenraiser, I don't know if scum!Fenraiser (or his potential buddy) would have let so many days go by without fighting harder or looking for some kind of alternative wagon to gain support.

Why would that be indicative of town Fen? Fen has tried to look for other wagons, and he arguably looks like the kind of scum who's irritated he got voted for something NAI.

Does anyone else want to weigh in on the fact that activity is so slow and whether that's indicative of Fenraiser being caught scum?

I would still like this.

Hey I'm super sorry I've been inactive. Weekends are generally busy for me and last weekend was especially busy. I'll have more time tonight, but I can answer some questions real quick.

Yeah, but Flubber has also said his read has since "evolved" into a real scumread due to Fenraiser's defense. What do you think about his 57 and 70?

The evolution seems to be flubber not liking fens argument against him. I don't think defending yourself and giving a reason to vote somebody else is a scummy thing to do in fens position.

Same question on 'random vote' I asked earlier.

I think of random votes as more of a dice roll. It might be accompanied by a joke or an extremely arbitrary reason that doesn't really mean anything.

My second question seems like a really odd thing to respond to there considering the point I was asking this at has passed, and it was asked to specific players (not BB). Seems odd that it's one of the two things BB puts in his catchup post (given he doesn't really weigh in on Fen).

[BluBlake]

if you'll look at fen's indications of how frustrated he is about being suspected for the setup choice i think it's entirely plausible to read scum angry at being caught for something so minor in there. also, slight scumread on flubber for the awkward rvs vote discussion.

I agree that it's easy to read fen as angry scum. I'm struggling between whether it's that or general frustration at being put under so much pressure right away. I've never played in a game where somebody was at L-1 so quickly, but I feel like he reacted like a lot of people would react regardless of alignment.

Is this (activity rate) indicative of caught scum D1, or scum on the wagon who want it to just tip over for an easy lynch? Still thinking the first, but I'm looking for thoughts from people who've seen this kind of thing before- since I haven't seen a wagon that started in RVS hang like this for so long.

I'm not speaking from past experience, and I'm not sure if the inactivity says anything about the alignment of the inactive players, but one thing I have been thinking about is that Fenraiser doesn't seem all that worried about getting lynched as we head to deadline. Neither of his main pushes have gotten any traction and there's not much talk/drive for a counterwagon. I think this may be indicative of town!Fenraiser, I don't know if scum!Fenraiser (or his potential buddy) would have let so many days go by without fighting harder or looking for some kind of alternative wagon to gain support.

Yeah I also find it pretty odd that I can't recall any pushes for a counterwagon (that didn't come from Fen) other than Kop voting for Flubber. I have wondered why Fen hasn't moved his vote to Flubber especially since my vote is still there. Perhaps it's scum not wanting to vote together? If we do end up lynching Fen and he flips scum then I'd look at Kop next. But since there hasn't been anything else I'm still leaning toward Fen not being scum.

I typically don't expect scum to play as though they can afford to be lynched D1. If they're lurking its out of being bad at scum play imo.

Either way, there's 36 ish hours to deadline and only one viable wagon.

You've clearly been confident in Fen being scum so do you think scum must be playing bad or do you think there are people actively trying help save Fen from getting lynched?

[BluBlake]

My second question seems like a really odd thing to respond to there considering the point I was asking this at has passed, and it was asked to specific players (not BB). Seems odd that it's one of the two things BB puts in his catchup post (given he doesn't really weigh in on Fen).

I was actually just quickly responding to questions that were directed at me. In 102 you quoted me and then asked the question. I assumed that meant you wanted me to answer the question.

I don't really like the wagon on Fen. I didn't get the same vibe from his pre game posting that Lion and Hopkirk seemed to have. Flubber is saying his initial vote was random, but I certainly didn't read it as random especially because 2 other people had placed serious votes on Fen before him. I don't think some of Fen's arguments are great, and I don't really understand his vote on Hopkirk, but his posts seem typical of somebody that got put at L-1 on the first page of the game.

Same question on 'random vote' I asked earlier.

[Kop]

VOTE: Fenraiser because L-1

Typical Not Mafia, why doesn't that surprise me. Always votes and uses either poor reasons, or poor logic.

I actually don't mind the reasoning for the vote here. It could be better but adding the pressure of a l-1 vote could be a good thing.

I don't have town reads on Raya, nm, or north, and am comfortable looking in there for a lynch pool

The wording here is interesting. Why not just say this is your lynch pool or the people you are scumleaning. Saying you don't have town reads on them is weird.

Why do you think it's a good thing? It appears more opportunistic than good pressure. Putting Fen at L-1 and possibly leading up to a possible accidental hammer doesn't make sense to me.

[Kop]

Is this (activity rate) indicative of caught scum D1, or scum on the wagon who want it to just tip over for an easy lynch? Still thinking the first, but I'm looking for thoughts from people who've seen this kind of thing before- since I haven't seen a wagon that started in RVS hang like this for so long.

I'm not speaking from past experience, and I'm not sure if the inactivity says anything about the alignment of the inactive players, but one thing I have been thinking about is that Fenraiser doesn't seem all that worried about getting lynched as we head to deadline. Neither of his main pushes have gotten any traction and there's not much talk/drive for a counterwagon. I think this may be indicative of town!Fenraiser, I don't know if scum!Fenraiser (or his potential buddy) would have let so many days go by without fighting harder or looking for some kind of alternative wagon to gain support.

I will always say and stand by, inactivity is NAI. Simply because the wagon has stalled, that doesn't tell me whether he is town or scum based on that. It either says to me that scum are on the wagon and Fen is town, or Fen is scum but not fighting back because he thinks the wagon might lose traction down the line, and he believes that he might not get any traction on any other wagon because it might appear more survivalist rather than genuinely scum reading someone.

[Kop]

VOTE: Kop

his ISO is empty of any game-solving effort

also, on review this post is bad:

Yes he plays the same way in both alignments but yes I will make points

even if does appear that it's a easy target to go for.

why are worried about looking like you're going after easy targets? Shouldn't you be focused on finding who you think is scum?

My issue with your NM "opportunistic" callout was not because it was NM himself, it was because you were presenting a scumread on NM while also acknowledging that his play was entirely consistent/typical with how he always plays. It bothers me that you speak about him as if he's a lynch to go after and not as if he's an alignment to figure out.

I was hoping that my call out would actually get him to engage with me and I can then get a feeler for what he could be in this game. His game style probably won't change, but I'd actively like to see him put his two pennith in and get his opinions, rather than putting Fen to L-1 and then leave it at that.

[Kop]

well he's been at L-1 on and off the whole day and that didn't do anything for activity

was wondering if anyone else would step up and vote him or if I could get some movement on my Kop vote

Scum could easily be allowing the game to stagnate.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Fenraiser

[GuiltyLion]

Why would that be indicative of town Fen? Fen has tried to look for other wagons, and he arguably looks like the kind of scum who's irritated he got voted for something NAI.

yes arguably he does look like scum irritated for being voted for something NAI, but I'm worried that he might not be. Especially since he now seems to be the only real attainable lynch, it's an easy walk into D2 for scum if Fen is town.

I guess he loosely tried to push Flubber/Hopkirk wagons, but his move off of Flubber to you doesn't really make sense from a survivalist perspective. Flubber was a CW at L-2 and he moved off of it to vanity vote you, and hasn't moved his vote since.

If we were originally right and Fen is scum then it doesn't matter but I've gotten some cold feet and bad vibes in the last few RL days

regardless we should give him time to claim, someone please give intent to hammer before doing it

VOTE: Fenraiser

L-1

[GuiltyLion]

I have wondered why Fen hasn't moved his vote to Flubber especially since my vote is still there. Perhaps it's scum not wanting to vote together? If we do end up lynching Fen and he flips scum then I'd look at Kop next. But since there hasn't been anything else I'm still leaning toward Fen not being scum.

this is good town reasoning